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18 de octubre de 2018
PORTAFOLIO DE EVIDENCIAS
Unidad 3. Variables aleatorias
Probabilidad y Estadística
Ing., Rosa Elena Andrade Leal
Ejercicio 1:
R(x) = {0,1,2,3}
X P
0 1/8
1 3/8
2 3/8
3 1/8
1
P(x=2)=3/8
P{x€(-∞,1)}=1/8
P{x€(-∞,1)}=6/8
Ejercicio 2:
x1 P y1 P
2 1/36 3 1/36
4 3/36 5 4/36
6 5/36 7 6/36
8 5/36 9 4/36
10 3/36 11 2/36
12 1/36
= ∑ 𝑃[𝑥 ≤ 𝑥1]
𝑥1≤𝑥
Valor esperado:
𝐸(𝑥) = 𝑥1 . 𝑃(𝑥 = 𝑥1 ) + 𝑥2 . 𝑃(𝑥 = 𝑥2 )+. . +𝑥𝑛 . 𝑃(𝑥 = 𝑥𝑛 )
Esperanza matemática
Media de una variable aleatoria discreta (x)
x P(x) xn*P(x=xn)
x1=2 1/36 2/36
x2=3 2/36 6/36
x3=4 3/36 12/36
x4=5 4/36 20/36
x5=6 5/36 30/36
x6=7 6/36 42/36
x7=8 5/36 40/36
x8=9 4/36 36/36
x9=10 3/36 30/36
x10=11 2/36 22/36
x11=12 1/36 12/36
Varianza
2
𝑠 2 = (𝑥1 − 𝐸(𝑥))2 ∗ 𝑃(𝑥 = 𝑥1 ) + (𝑥1 − 𝐸(𝑥)) ∗ 𝑃(𝑥 = 𝑥1 )+. . +(𝑥𝑛 − 𝐸(𝑥))2 ∗ 𝑃(𝑥 = 𝑥𝑛 )
Ejercicio
Al lanzar cuatro monedas considerar como variable aleatoria x el número de águilas
obtenidas
a) Determinar la probabilidad y su representación gráfica.
b) La función de distribución y su representación gráfica.
c) La esperanza matemática y la varianza.
S
S
S,S,S,S=0
S
A
S,S,S,A=1
A
S
S,S,A,S=1
S
A
S,S,A,A=2
S
S
S,A,S,S=1
A
A
S,A,S,A=2
A
S
S,A,A,S=2
Lanzar
cuatro
A
S,A,A,A=3
moneda
S
S
A,S,S,S=1
S
A
A,S,S,A=2
A
S
A,S,A,S=2
A
A
A,S,A,A=3
S
S
A,A,S,S=2
A
A
A,A,S,A=3
A
S
A,A,A,S=3
A
A,A,A,A=4
X 0 1 2 3 4
0.1 A b c 0.2
𝑃(𝑥 ≤ 2) = 0.7
𝑃(𝑥 = 𝑥0 ) + 𝑃(𝑥 = 𝑥1 ) + 𝑃(𝑥 = 𝑥2 ) = 0.7
0.1 + 𝑎 + 𝑏 = 0.7
𝑎 + 𝑏 = 0.7 − 0.1
𝑎 + 𝑏 = 0.6
𝑎 + 0.45 = 0.6
𝑎 = 0.6 − 0.45
𝑎 = 0.15
𝑃(𝑥 ≥ 2) = 0.75
𝑏 + 𝑐 + 0.2 = 0.75
𝑏 + 𝑐 = 0.75 − 0.2
𝑏 + 𝑐 = 0.55
0.45 + 𝑐 = 0.55
𝑐 = 0.55 − 0.45
𝑐 = 0.1
0.1 + 𝑎 + 𝑏 + 𝑐 + 0.2 = 1
0.1 + (0.6 − 𝑏) + 𝑏 + (0.55 − 𝑏) + 0.2 = 1
0.1 + 0.6 − 𝑏 + 𝑏 + 0.55 − 𝑏 + 0.2 = 1
0.1 + 0.6 + 0.55 − 𝑏 + 0.2 = 1
1.45 − 𝑏 = 1
1.45 − 1 = 𝑏
𝑏 = 0.45
x 0 1 2 3 4
P(x) 0.1 0.15 0.45 0.1 0.2
0.15 0.9 0.3 0.8 2.15
x-m -2.15 -1.15 -0.15 0.85 1.85
(x-m)^2 4.6225 1.3225 0.0225 0.7225 3.4225
(x- 0.46225 0.198375 0.010125 0.07225 0.6845 1.4275
m)^2*P(x=n)
Discretas (finito)
Variables
aleatorias
Continuas (infinito)
8
6
4
k
2
0
0 1 2 3 4 5
x
3 6
2𝑘 ∫ 𝑥𝑑𝑥 + 6𝑘 ∫ 𝑑𝑥 = 1
0 4
𝑘𝑥 2 |30 + 6𝑘𝑥|64 = 1
𝑥
𝑥𝐸[1,4]
𝑓(𝑥) = 6
0 𝑥𝐸[1,4]
f(x)
5/7
3/5
1/2
2/5
f(x)
2/7
1/5
0
0
0 1 2 3 4
x
0 1 2 3 4
f(x) 0 1/6 1/3 1/2 2/3
1 3
∫ 𝑥𝑑𝑥
6 2
1 𝑥 2 3 1 3 2 22 5
. |2 = [ − ] =
6 2 6 2 2 12
Sea
2
𝑓(𝑥) = 𝑎𝑥 𝑠𝑖 1 ≤ 𝑥 ≤ 3
0 𝑒𝑛 𝑜𝑡𝑟𝑜 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑜
a) Calcular la constante a
b) Calcular 𝑃(𝑥 ≥ 2)
3
𝑎 ∫ 𝑥 2 𝑑𝑥
1
𝑥3 3 33 13 26
𝑎 |1 = 𝑎 [ − ] = 𝑎
3 3 3 3
26
𝑎 =1
3
3
𝑎=
26
f(x)
10 9
9
8
7
6
5 4
a
4
3
2 1
1 0
0
0 1 2 3
x
f(x)
0 1 2 3
f(x) 0 1 4 9
+ + + =1
1 ∗ 3𝑎 1 ∗ 5𝑎
(1𝑎 ∗ 1) + (1 ∗ 4𝑎) + ( )+( )=1
2 2
3𝑎 5𝑎
1𝑎 + 4𝑎 + + =1
2 2
9𝑎 = 1
Dada la variable aleatoria x c
2𝑥 𝐸[0,1]
𝑓(𝑥)
0 𝑒𝑛 𝑜𝑡𝑟𝑜 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑜
Encontrar
𝑃(1⁄4 ≤ 𝑥 ≤ 1⁄2)
f(x)
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
0 1
f(x) 0 2
f(x)
0 1
f(x) 0 2
1
2
∫ 2𝑥 𝑑𝑥
1
4
2𝑥 2 12
|
2 14
1 1
( )2 − ( )2
2 4
1 1 3
− =
4 16 16
−𝑒 2𝑥 |0.6
0.3 = −𝑒
−2(0.6)
− (−𝑒 −2(0.3) ) = −0.30119 − (−0.54881) = 0.24762
f(x)
2.5
1.5
0.5
0
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1
f(x)
3𝑥
𝑓(𝑥) {𝑐 + ( 8 ) 𝑠𝑖 0 ≤ 𝑥 ≤ 2
0 𝑒𝑛 𝑜𝑡𝑟𝑜 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑜
Calcular C
Encontrar 𝑃(1 ≤ 𝑥 ≤ 1.5
𝑃(𝑥 > 1)