Excelet

Interpolation and Extrapolation:

What is the difference?

Place your cursor on the yellow box!

objectives:
1. discover the difference between interpolation and extrapolation

2. explore some limitations using aluminum can data updated with 2015 data!

You can resize the screen by going to View on the menu bar and select Zoom...

Click on the tabs to navigate!

Extending the line - What is the difference between interpolation and extrapolation?
slope y-intercept x-intercept
m = 1.3 b = 4.0 -3.1
x y
4.0 9.2
5.0 10.5 18 Explore the graph
6.0 11.8 0 15.05 by adjusting the
16
7.0 13.1 8.5 15.05 tracer point ( )
8.0 14.4 14 8.5 0 using the slider
9.0 15.7 below the graph.
12
10.0 17.0 two linear regressions
10 dotted line extended using The values of the
y

forcast slope and the

8
y-intercept in the
6 yellow cells may
be changed. The
4
y-axis rescales,
2 while the x-axis is
fixed.
0
0 3 6 x 9 12 15

0 x 15 y =
vary the x-value 85 15.1 interpolated answer
from 0 to 15 x = 8.5

Sinex 2006
modified 2015
The Mass of an Aluminum Can from 1972 to 2015 - Going out on the line for 2016! updated!

What do you notice about the data for the last few years? So let's consider separate regressions.

✘ all data and regression 1972-1998 and regression 1999-2014 and regression

industry can goal of 12 grams

Mass of Can (g)

f(x) = - 50
40
25.00 1 0 0 12-g can
R² = 0
2012
20.00 0
f(x) = - 0.1910595467x + 396.5793021266
15.00 R² = 0.9275685581

10.00 2016 can

5.00
The can mass is never goin
make it to 12 grams!!!!!
0.00
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
This is a great example of
Year model changing behavior!!!
What do you predict will be the mass of the aluminum can in 2015? What are you basing your
prediction on? (now a piece-wise model)

12-g can answer

Sinex 2016
source: http://www.aluminum.org
year mass (g) http://www.aluminum.org year mass (g)
1972 -50.00 1972 20.87 20.87
1973 -50.00 1973 20.40 20.40
1974 -50.00 1974 20.00 20.00
1975 -50.00 1975 19.74 19.74
1976 -50.00 1976 19.48 19.48
1977 -50.00 1977 19.34 19.34
1978 -50.00 1978 19.20 19.20
1979 -50.00 1979 19.16 19.16
1980 -50.00 1980 18.74 18.74
1981 -50.00 1981 18.57 18.57
1982 -50.00 1982 18.01 18.01
1983 -50.00 1983 17.67 17.67
1984 -50.00 1984 17.46 17.46
1985 -50.00 1985 17.07 17.07
1986 -50.00 1986 16.81 16.81
1987 -50.00 1987 16.57 16.57
1988 -50.00 1988 16.07 16.07
1989 -50.00 1989 15.49 15.49
1990 -50.00 1990 15.97 15.97
1991 -50.00 1991 15.73 15.73
1992 -50.00 1992 15.50 15.50
1993 -50.00 1993 15.38 15.38
1994 -50.00 1994 15.07 15.07
1995 -50.00 1995 14.61 14.61
1996 -50.00 1996 14.22 14.22
1997 -50.00 1997 13.94 13.94
1998 -50.00 can limit 1998 13.74 13.74
1999 -40.00 1980 -10 1999 13.72 13.72
2000 -40.00 1990 -10 2000 13.71 13.71
2001 -40.00 2020 -10 2001 13.59 13.59
2002 -40.00 2002 13.44 13.44
2003 -40.00 2003 13.46 13.46
2004 -40.00 2004 13.38 13.38
2005 -40.00 2005 13.35 13.35
2006 -40.00 2006 13.27 13.27
2007 -40.00 2007 13.29 13.29
2008 -40 2008 13.28 13.28
2009 -40 2009 13.22 13.22
2010 -40 2010 13.22 13.22
2011 -40 2011 13.13 13.13
2012 -40 2012 13.06 13.06
2013 -40 2013 12.99 12.99
2014 -40 2014 12.99 12.99
2015 -40 2015 12.97 12.97
The can mass is never going to
make it to 12 grams!!!!!

This is a great example of the

model changing behavior!!!
(now a piece-wise model)
The residuals seem to illustrate a change in the trend. As well as there must be an engineering limit!

year mass (g) reg-calc residual Residuals plot for 1972-2015 data
1972 20.87 19.81 1.06
1973 20.40 19.62 0.79
2.00
1974 20.00 19.43 0.57
1975 19.74 19.24 0.50
1.50

Residuals
1976 19.48 19.05 0.44
1977 19.34 18.85 0.49 f(x) = 0.1450158873x - 290.8702182372
1.00 R² = 0.9963355703
1978 19.20 18.66 0.53
1979 19.16 18.47 0.69
0.50
1980 18.74 18.28 0.46
1981 18.57 18.09 0.48
0.00
1982 18.01 17.90 0.11
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
1983 17.67 17.71 -0.04
-0.50
1984 17.46 17.52 -0.06
1985 17.07 17.33 -0.26
-1.00
1986 16.81 17.14 -0.32
1987 16.57 16.94 -0.37
-1.50 Year
1988 16.07 16.75 -0.68
1989 15.49 16.56 -1.07
1990 15.97 16.37 -0.40
1991 15.73 16.18 -0.45 There is a trend in the residuals!!!
1992 15.50 15.99 -0.49 …and notice it keeps getting better!!!
1993 15.38 15.80 -0.41
1994 15.07 15.61 -0.54 Sinex 2016
1995 14.61 15.42 -0.80 1998 -1.10
1996 14.22 15.22 -1.00 1999 -0.94
1997 13.94 15.03 -1.09 2000 -0.75
1998 13.74 14.84 -1.10 2001 -0.68
1999 13.72 14.65 -0.94 2002 -0.64
2000 13.71 14.46 -0.75 2003 -0.43
2001 13.59 14.27 -0.68 2004 -0.32
2002 13.44 14.08 -0.64 2005 -0.15
2003 13.46 13.89 -0.43 2006 -0.04
2004 13.38 13.70 -0.32 2007 0.17
2005 13.35 13.50 -0.15 2008 0.35
2006 13.27 13.31 -0.04 2009 0.48
2007 13.29 13.12 0.17 2010 0.67
2008 13.28 12.93 0.35 2011 0.77
2009 13.22 12.74 0.48 2012 0.89
2010 13.22 12.55 0.67 2013 1.01
2011 13.13 12.36 0.77 2014 1.20
2012 13.06 12.17 0.89 2015 1.38
2013 12.99 11.98 1.01
2014 12.99 11.79 1.20
2015 12.97 11.59 1.38
 year mass (g) reg-calc residual
1972 20.87 20.69 0.18
updated with 2015 1973 20.40 20.42 -0.02
1974 20.00 20.16 -0.16
1975 19.74 19.89 -0.15
1976 19.48 19.62 -0.14
1977 19.34 19.35 -0.01
1978 19.20 19.09 0.11
1979 19.16 18.82 0.34
1980 18.74 18.55 0.18
1981 18.57 18.29 0.28
1982 18.01 18.02 -0.01
1983 17.67 17.75 -0.09
1984 17.46 17.48 -0.02
1985 17.07 17.22 -0.15
1986 16.81 16.95 -0.13
1987 16.57 16.68 -0.11
1988 16.07 16.41 -0.34
1989 15.49 16.15 -0.65
1990 15.97 15.88 0.09
1991 15.73 15.61 0.11
1992 15.50 15.34 0.16
1993 15.38 15.08 0.31
1994 15.07 14.81 0.26
1995 14.61 14.54 0.07
1996 14.22 14.28 -0.05
1997 13.94 14.01 -0.07
1998 13.74 13.74 0.00

2.00

1.50 Residuals: 1972-1998

residuals

1.00

0.50
 1.50 Residuals: 1972-1998

residuals
1.00

0.50

0.00
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

-0.50

-1.00

year
-1.50

residuals are not random, but at least regular!

scale the same as the full data graph!