GDP growth Q1FY19

August 31, 2018 Dipankar Mitra

Somnath Mukherjee
Research, ASKWA
 GDP Growth – Hits 8%+; fairly broad-based recovery partly due
to base effect & seasonal factors; consumption stays strong
Both base-effect and seasonal pattern takes GDP to 8%+ growth Agri and Industry accelerates, Services steady
Agriculture, forestry & fishing Industry Services
GDP growth
12

10.3
9.3
10

8.7

8.2

8.2
8.1
9
8.0
10

7.7
7.7

7.6
7.5

7.3

7.3
7.1
8

7.0
6.8
6.5
6.5

6.3

7.3
7 8

6.1
5.9

5.6
5.4

5.3
5.3

6
4.9

6
4.3

5
4
4
3
2 2
1
0 0
Sep-12

Sep-13

Sep-15

Sep-16

Sep-17
Sep-14

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
Jun-13

Jun-15

Jun-16

Jun-17

Jun-18
Jun-12

Jun-14
Mar-13

Mar-14

Mar-15

Mar-16

Mar-18
Mar-17
Dec-12

Dec-13

Dec-15

Dec-17
Dec-14

Dec-16

FY17 FY18 FY19

Expenditure side shows heavy dependence on consumption Nominal GDP spikes, but depreciation impacts Dollar GDP growth
Pvt. Cnsmp Govt. Consmp Cap Formation
GDP (Nominal) (INR) GDP (Nominal) (USD)
16
Net Exports GDP (YoY%)
% contribution to nominal GDP growth

10
9 8.2 14
7.7 13.8
8 7.0
7 6.3
1.8 5.6 4.8 3.0 12
6
2.6 3.3
5 0.9
1.9 1.5 10
4 0.5 0.7 9.4
3
8
2 3.8 3.7 3.5 3.7 4.7
1
6
0
-0.8 -1.1 -1.5 -0.4
-1
-2.7 4
-2
-3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
Q1FY18 Q2FY18 Q3FY18 Q4FY18 Q1FY19
FY17 FY18 FY19
Sources – CMIE ASKWA Research
 Takeaways

Hits: Fairly broadbased recovery

1. Agriculture accelerate due to Ravi crop and allied activities
2. Construction activities remain strong
3. Consumption continues to supports growth
4. Nominal growth highest in 19 quarters
Misses: Slowdown factors
1. Mining slowdown to affect downstream industries
2. Net exports to act as a bigger drag going forward
3. Base effect to turn adverse during H2FY19
4. Depreciation pulled down Dollar GDP growth to single digit
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