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Argus Turkish Energy Markets

Daily news, prices and analysis

Issue 17-249  |  Friday 22 December 2017

NEWS AND ANALYSIS Haber ve Analİzler PRICES FİYATLAR

Turkish gas: Import costs poised to rise in 1Q Argus Power and Gas indexes
Argus Elektrik ve Gaz Endeksleri
The price of importing Russian gas for Turkish private-sector
firms is expected to increase in the first quarter of next year Electricity (base load)
TL/MWh ± €/MWh ±
Ön ay elektrik (baz yük)
— given the shape of the crude curve — and this could lift December (final)
193.30 42.28
Turkish day-ahead spot prices, traders said. Aralık (kapanış)
January (through 22 December
2017) 197.09 -0.09 43.34 -0.01
Turkish coal: Prices steady Ocak (22 Aralık dahil)
Turkey-delivered coal prices remained steady on the week, Natural gas
TL/'000m³ $/'000m³
Doğal gaz
with one cement maker cancelling a tender after deeming
November (final)
offers too high. 760.68 195.38
Kasım (kapanış)
December (through 22 Decem-
ber 2017) 779.38 -0.95 202.56 -0.16
Crude: Prices gain Aralık (22 Aralık dahil)
Global crude prices rose this week, after a pipeline leak
Each index is the running average of daily month-ahead power, and day-ahead
shut in production of light sour Forties, the grade that most gas prices. On the final publication day of the month of trade, the Argus indexes
commonly sets the North Sea benchmark price. will show the final value of month-ahead power and day-ahead gas markets over
the whole of that month.

ContourGlobal to build power plant in Kosovo Elektrik fiyatı endeksi, ön ay elektrik fiyatlarının ayın başından o güne kadarki
ortalamasıdır. Gaz fiyatı endeksi, gün öncesi doğal gaz fiyatlarının ayın başın-
US electricity generator ContourGlobal has signed a deal
dan o güne kadarki ortalamasıdır.
with the Kosovan government to build the 500MW lignite- Ay sonunda yayımlanan “kapanış” elektrik ve gaz endeksleri ayın tamamında
fired Kosova e Re plant for €1.3bn, Pristina said. gerçekleşen fiyat değerlendirmelerinin ortalamasıdır.

SEE power: Greek imports rise Argus daily OTC assessments


The Greek spot for delivery on Saturday fell but Argus günlük tezgâh üstü piyasa (OTC) değerlendirmeleri
settled above the levels seen last weekend with colder Electricity (base load)
TL/MWh ± €/MWh ±
temperatures creating the need for higher thermal Elektrik (baz yük)
January
generation compared with last weekend and wider spot 195.75 43.20 +0.06
Ocak
premium to neighbouring countries increased net imports Gas
TL/'000m³ $/'000m³
day on day. Doğal gaz
Day ahead
765.00 200.13 -0.40
Gün öncesi

LNG TL/mn Btu $/mn Btu

des Turkey Jan 2H


Contents İÇİndekİler des Türkiye Ocak 2.Y
37.64 +0.32 9.84 +0.09

Coal
TL/t $/t
Kömür
Turkish electricity market 2
cif Marmara (spot) 404.16 -2.70 105.67 +0.34
SEE electricity market 4
Cross-border electricity trade 5 Petcoke
Petrokok
Gas and LNG market 6
del Turkey (spot) 4.5%
Coal and petcoke market 8 des Türkiye (spot) 4.5%
394.08 +1.59 103.00 +0.50
Crude and oil products markets 9 Price changes are shown relative to the previous day's assessment. Values on this
News and analysis 10 page show the mid-point values of bid-offers only.
Spark and dark spreads 11 Fiyat değişimleri bir önceki günün değerlendirmesine göre hesaplanmıştır. Yuka-
Weather forecast 12 rıdaki fiyatlar alış ve satış tekliflerinin orta değerlerini göstermektedir.

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Licensed to: Burak Yitgin, Enerji Piyasaları İşletme A.Ş.
Argus Turkish Energy Markets Issue 17-249  |  Friday 22 December 2017

TURKISH ELECTRICITY MARKET TÜRKİYE ELEKTRİK PİYASASI


Front month power index (base load)
Year ahead edges higher
Ön ay elektrik endeksi (baz yük)
Calendar year 2018 gained on Friday while a financial base
Electricty (base load)
TL/MWh ± €/MWh ± $/MWh ±
load for Saturday traded lower in the over-the-counter (OTC) Elektrik (baz yük)
market on Friday before the spot settlement as a stronger December (final)
193.30 42.28 50.09
wind forecast adjusted market expectations. Aralık (kapanış)

The year-ahead base load moved up by TL0.25/MWh to January (through 22


trade at TL185/MWh, as recent decisions by state-owned December 2017) 197.09 -0.09 43.34 -0.01 51.34 -0.10
Ocak (22 Aralık dahil)
gas and power firms are likely to offer further support to
forward prices to increase hedging demand.
The day-ahead financial product changed hands at Argus Turkish OTC assessments
Argus tezgâh üstü piyasası değerlendirmeleri
TL150.50/MWh before the spot settlement, which cleared at
TL/MWh €/MWh
TL156.29/MWh. Wind was expected at 4.5GW on Saturday,
Bid Offer Offer Bid
± ±
then seen falling to 3.3GW and 1.2GW on Sunday and Alış Satış Satış Alış
Monday, respectively. Week ahead
159.00 170.00 35.09 37.52 +0.05
The Exist day-ahead has been settling below previous Ön hafta

market expectations, as state-owned utilities increased January


194.75 196.75 42.98 43.42 +0.06
Ocak
storage hydro output and temperatures held above seasonal February
183.50 195.00 -0.50 40.50 43.04 -0.05
norms on most days. The spot cleared at an average discount Şubat

of TL33.57/MWh to the expiry of December product in the March


169.00 177.00 -0.75 37.30 39.06 -0.12
Mart
OTC market so far this month at TL156.43/MWh. The state- Q1 2018
185.95 186.05 -0.42 41.04 41.06 -0.04
owned gas firm Botas increased withdrawal capacity to avert 1. Ç 2018
risk of curtailments to gas use for power plants, which also Q2 2018
165.00 166.75 +0.38 36.41 36.80 +0.13
2. Ç 2018
eased expectations of a gas crisis this winter. Temperatures
Q3 2018
193.50 195.50 +0.50 42.70 43.15 +0.17
throughout Turkey turned out 2.3°C higher than seasonal 3. Ç 2018
averages in December as of yesterday at 8.6°C. Q4 2018
192.50 194.50 +0.50 42.48 42.93 +0.17
4. Ç 2018
Temperatures in Istanbul were forecast to stay above
seasonal norms on 26 December until 5 January at 2018 184.95 185.05 +0.25 40.82 40.84 +0.11

7-11°C, which would be 2-6°C above averages. The state Rolling 52 weeks
180.00 184.00 +1.00 39.73 40.61 +0.28
Yıllık (52 Hafta)
meteorological agency expect milder weather throughout
this winter.
Day-ahead Exist
Epiaş PTF
TL/MWh ± €/MWh ±

Day-ahead Exist
156.29 -2.27 34.49 -0.42
Turkish month-ahead base load TL/MWh Epiaş PTF
Last 7 day average
155.31 +0.95 34.22 +0.22
210 Son 7 günün ortalaması
Last month average
174.65 38.29
Geçen ayın ortalaması
200

Borsa Istanbul Power Futures Viop (base load)


190 BIST Viop Elektrik (baz yük)
Settlement Traded
Low High
-- 180 hhhhhhh price volume
En En İşlem
Uzlaşma
düşük yüksek ± miktarı ±
Fiyatı
fiyatı fiyatı (0.1MW)
170
— — nc

160
22 Aug 3 Oct 13 Nov 22 Dec

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Issue Ref: 267850


Argus Turkish Energy Markets Issue 17-249  |  Friday 22 December 2017

TURKISH ELECTRICITY MARKET TÜRKİYE ELEKTRİK PİYASASI

Turkish OTC deals


Türkiye tezgâh üstü piyasası (OTC) elektrik işlemleri
Deal date Load Type Volume Price Delivery period Delivery from date Delivery date to Contract type
İşlem tarihi Yük türü Hacim Fiyat Teslimat dönemi Teslimat baslangıç Teslimat bitiş Kontrat türü

22 Dec 17 Base Load 5 150.50 Saturday 23 Dec 17 23 Dec 17 Financial


22 Dec 17 Base Load 5 185.00 calendar year 1 Jan 18 31 Dec 18 Physical
22 Dec 17 Base Load 5 185.50 calendar year 1 Jan 18 31 Dec 18 Physical
22 Dec 17 Base Load 5 186.00 quarter 1 1 Jan 18 31 Mar 18 Physical

Turkish front-two months base load TL/MWh Turkish front-two quarters base load TL/MWh

month 1 month 2 quarter 1 quarter 2


200 190

185
195
180

190 hhhhhhh 175 hhhhhhh

170
185
165

180 160
11 Dec 14 Dec 19 Dec 22 Dec 11 Dec 14 Dec 19 Dec 22 Dec

Turkish year-ahead base load TL/MWh Turkish front-quarter base load TL/MWh
186.0
190
189
184.0
188
182.0 187
186
180.0 185
hhhhhhh
-- 184 hhhhhhh
178.0 183
182
176.0 181
180
174.0
179
28 Nov 6 Dec 14 Dec 22 Dec
28 Nov 6 Dec 14 Dec 22 Dec

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Argus Turkish Energy Markets Issue 17-249  |  Friday 22 December 2017

see ELECTRICITY MARKET GÜNEYDOĞU AVRUPA ELEKTRİK PİYASalarI


Argus Romanian OTC base load assessments
Wider Greek premium supports imports
Argus Romanya tezgâh üstü piyasası değerlendirmeleri
The Greek spot for delivery on Saturday fell but
Lei/MWh €/MWh
settled above the levels seen last weekend with colder Bid Offer Bid Offer
± ±
temperatures creating the need for higher thermal Alış Satış Alış Satış

generation compared with last weekend and wider spot January


255.00 260.00 54.97 56.05 -0.08
premium to neighbouring countries increased net imports Ocak
February
day on day. Şubat
255.00 270.00 54.97 58.20 -0.09
The SMP cleared at €53.52/MWh, falling by €0.54/MWh March
192.50 196.50 41.50 42.36 -0.06
day on day with temperatures expected to turn out below Mart
Q1 2018
seasonal norms driving thermal generation higher compared 1. Ç 2018
237.00 241.00 51.09 51.95 -0.08
with last weekend. The Greek spot settled at a €7.15/MWh Q2 2018
179.00 183.00 38.59 39.45 -0.06
premium to the Italian Brindisi zonal price after clearing at a 2. Ç 2018

discount on Friday, switching cross border flows with Greece 2018 213.75 215.75 46.08 46.51 -0.06
scheduled to become a net importer.
Argus Bulgarian OTC assessments 21 Dec 2017
The Bulgarian Ibex day-ahead settled at €28.67/MWh, €/MWh
Argus Bulgaristan tezgâh üstü piyasası değerlendirmesi
which was at a €24.85/MWh discount to the Greek spot.
Buy Sell
Greece was scheduled to increase imports on the Bulgarian ±
Alış Satış
border to 397MW, up from 343MW today. Bulgaria was Front month assesment
48.70 50.40 na
scheduled to import on the Turkish border on Saturday at Ön ay değerlendirmesi

00:00-07:00 with the Turkish spot holding at a premium of Argus Greek OTC assessments 21 Dec 2017
€/MWh
€9.51/MWh. Bulgaria has been a net importer from Turkey Argus Yunanistan tezgâh üstü piyasası değerlendirmesi
recently. Bulgaria’s Kozloduy nuclear power plant was Buy Sell
±
Alış Satış
scheduled to lower generation by 100MW on 23 December
at 03:00 local time until 24 December at 03:00 for planned Front month assesment
62.00 65.00 na
Ön ay değerlendirmesi
maintenance.
The Romanian Opcom spot settled at €36/MWh, which Argus Albanian OTC assessments 21 Dec 2017
€/MWh
Argus Arnavutluk tezgâh üstü piyasası değerlendirmesi
was at a €0.42/MWh discount to the Hungarian day-ahead.
Buy Sell
Wind was expected at 627MW on Saturday, then forecast at ±
Alış Satış
1.2GW and 1.1GW on Sunday and Monday, respectively. Front month assesment
56.80 58.80 na
Ön ay değerlendirmesi

Romanian Opcom day ahead


Romanian month-ahead base load RON/MWh Romanya Opcom gün öncesi fiyatı
Lei/MWh €/MWh Vol MWh
300
Lei/MWs €/MWs Yük MWs

Base load
230.38 49.66 na
290 Baz yük

Bulgarian Ibex day ahead


280 Bulgaristan Ibex gün öncesi fiyatı
€/MWh ± lev/MWh ±
-- hhhhhhh Base load
270 28.67 -8.35 56.08 -16.32
Baz yük
Peak load
260 34.16 -11.75 66.83 -22.96
Pik yük

Greek day ahead pool


250 Yunanistan gün öncesi fiyatı
30 Oct 16 Nov 5 Dec 22 Dec System marginal price forecast €/MWh ±
Sistem marjinal fiyat tahmini €/MWs

53.53 -0.53

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Argus Turkish Energy Markets Issue 17-249  |  Friday 22 December 2017

Hungarian HUPX day ahead Croatian Cropex day ahead


Macaristan HUPX gün öncesi fiyatı Hırvatistan Cropex gün öncesi fiyatı
€/MWh ± €/MWh ±

Base load 36.42 -4.47 Base load 35.25 -3.80

Baz yük 36.42 -4.47 Baz yük 35.25 -3.80

CROSS-BORDER ELECTRICITY trade SINIR ÖTESİ ELEKTRİK TİCARETİ

Daily cross-border electricity markets Weekly cross-border electricity markets


22 Dec 2017 21 Dec 2017
Günlük sınır ötesi elektrik piyasaları Haftalık sınır ötesi elektrik piyasaları
Front month (base load) cross border spreads Front month (base load) cross border spreads
€/MWh ± €/MWh ±
Ön ay (baz yük) ülkeler arası spreadler Ön ay (baz yük) ülkeler arası spreadler

Hungary - Turkey Greece-Turkey


13.25 -0.30 20.35 +0.61
Macaristan - Türkiye Yunanistan- Türkiye
Romania- Turkey
12.31 -0.13 Bulgaria-Turkey
Romanya - Türkiye 6.40 +4.66
Bulgaristan - Türkiye
Hungary-Serbia
-0.55
Macaristan- Sırbistan
Greece-Bulgaria
Hungary-Romania 13.95 +12.21
0.94 -0.17 Yunanistan - Bulgaristan
Macaristan - Romanya
Romania-Serbia Greece-Italy
-1.49 +0.17 -1.20 -2.94
Romanya - Sırbistan Yunanistan - İtalya

Month-ahead base load €/MWh Romanian, Hungarian month-ahead base load

Greece Bulgaria Hungary Romania


Turkey 66
70
64
65
62
60

55 hhhhhhh -- 60 hhhhhhh

58
50

45 56

40 54
23 Nov 7 Dec 21 Dec 30 Oct 16 Nov 5 Dec 22 Dec

Turkey vs Hungary front-month base load €/MWh Turkey vs Bulgaria front-month base load

Turkey Hungary Bulgaria €/MWh (Left Axis)


65 Turkey TL/MWh (Right Axis)
50 190
60
45 180
55
170
40
-- 50 hhhhhhh
160 hhhhhhh
--

45 35
150
40 30 140
35 25 130
20 Oct 10 Nov 1 Dec 22 Dec 19 Jan 17 13 Apr 17 6 Jul 17 28 Sep 17 21 Dec 17

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Argus Turkish Energy Markets Issue 17-249  |  Friday 22 December 2017

gas AND LNG market DOĞALGAZ VE LNG PİYASASI

Turkish 1Q import costs poised to rise participants to stay balanced because companies would
The price of importing Russian gas for Turkish private-sector need to pay an 8pc penalty above the balancing price if they
firms is expected to increase in the first quarter of next year are undersupplied.
— given the shape of the crude curve — and this could lift Botas expects maximum daily consumption of 250mn
Turkish day-ahead spot prices, traders said. m³ in the first quarter, which is just below maximum entry
Oil-indexed prices for the first quarter of 2018 are on capacity expected for the period. Anticipated start-up of
course to rise to €18/MWh ($225/’000m³), assuming a 10pc the Dortyol floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU)
discount to a standard contract. at the end of this month is expected to boost sendout
This is above Turkey’s pipeline import costs for October- capacity by 15mn m³/d to 265mn m³/d. Botas also plans to
December of €17/MWh ($212/’000m³). expand sendout capacity at its onshore Marmara Ereglisi LNG
Higher crude prices in recent months have pushed up terminal to 37mn m³/d from 27mn m³/d by February 2018.
expected import costs for the first quarter and later in 2018. Spot prices fall
State-run Botas has agreed to sell power plants up to The day-ahead market fell on 18-22 December, compared
50pc of their gas feedstock requirement at regulated tariffs. with a week earlier, as a stronger lira weighed on dollar-
But there will be a 20pc rise in regulated tariffs for 50-70pc denominated import costs.
of utilities’ consumption, and a 25pc rise for requirements The day-ahead price averaged 767.50 lira/’000m³, down
over 70pc. from TL781/’000m³ a week earlier.
This could encourage some power plants to purchase Milder weather drove a return to injections with the
spot gas, provided import costs denominated in the Turkish stockbuild averaging 2.2mn m³/d on 16-22 December,
lira are below the higher tariffs for demand above half of compared with a stockdraw of 12.3mn m³/d a week earlier.
their consumption. The Silivri site held 2.44bn m³ this morning, up from the
Higher import costs could also drive up the January three-year average for the date of 1.89bn m³.
balancing price, some participants said. Above-average temperatures in Istanbul are forecast
A higher balancing price for January — when from 25 December until at least mid-January, which could
consumption typically peaks in Turkey — could encourage further deter withdrawals.

Argus daily gas market assessments


Argus günlük gaz piyasası değerlendirmeleri
TL/'000m³ ± $/'000m³ ± $/mn Btu ± TL/MWh ±
Bid Offer Midpoint Midpoint Midpoint
Alış 'Satış Orta nokta Orta nokta Orta nokta

Day ahead
750.00 780.00 200.13 -0.40 5.51 -0.01 71.90
Gün öncesi
7-day ex-post
750.00 780.00 200.13 -0.40 5.51 -0.01 71.90
Gün sonrası

Botas monthly gas balancing price (without taxes) LNG delivery prices
Botaş aylık dengeleme gazı fiyatı (vergiler hariç) Türkiye’ye teslim LNG fiyatları
TL/'000m³ ± $/'000m³ TL/mn Btu ± $/mn Btu ±

December des Turkey Jan 2H


763.62 199.65 37.64 +0.32 9.84 +0.09
Aralık des Türkiye Ocak 2.Y
Historical prices (click here) des Turkey Feb 1H
36.87 +0.21 9.64 +0.07
DGF eski değerleri (tıklayın) des Türkiye Şubat 1.Y

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Argus Turkish Energy Markets Issue 17-249  |  Friday 22 December 2017

gas AND LNG market DOĞALGAZ VE LNG PİYASASI


Argus monthly gas index
Argus aylık doğalgaz endeksi
TL/'000m³ ± $/'000m³ ± $/mn Btu ± TL/MWh ±

November (final)
760.68 195.38 7.21 71.49
Kasım (kapanış)

December (through 22 December 2017)


779.38 -0.95 202.56 -0.16 7.48 -0.01 73.25 -0.09
Aralık (22 Aralık dahil)

LNG deliveries to Turkey


Türkiye’ye LNG teslimatları
Capacity LNG Estimated
Name of tanker m³ Term/Spot Supplier* To (import terminal) delivered date
Tanker adı LNG kapasitesi Kontrat/Spot Tedarikçi* Varış terminali Tahmini teslimat
m³ tarihi

Al Bahiya 210,000 Term Qatargas 2 Aliaga 21 Dec 17

Catalunya Spirit 138,000 Spot Aliaga 15 Dec 17

LNG Sokoto 137,000 Term NLNG Aliaga 14 Dec 17

Tessala 171,800 Term Sonatrach Marmara Ereglisi 14 Dec 17

Al Shamal 217,000 Term Qatargas 2 Aliaga 13 Dec 17

BW GDF Suez Brussels 164,500 Spot Engie Aliaga (FSRU) 5 Dec 17

LNG Abuja II 127,000 Term NLNG Marmara Ereglisi 29 Nov 17

SK Audace 180,000 Spot Total* Aliaga 27 Nov 17

Arctic Discoverer 140,000 Spot Engie Aliaga 24 Nov 17

Al Bahiya 210,000 Term Qatargas 2 Aliaga 21 Nov 17

*likely supplier  *olası tedarikçi


Note: List may not capture all deliveries. Sources are ship tracking data and market participants.
Not: Bu liste tüm teslimatları yansıtmayabilir. Kaynaklar gemi izleme verileri ve piyasa katılımcılarıdır.
Historical LNG deliveries to Turkey (click here)  Türkiye’ye daha önce yapılan LNG teslimatları (tıklayın)

Netbacks Btu (front half month) $/mn


LNG Netbackler (ön yarı ay)
NW Europe Northeast US
Japan India Iberian peninsula Greece Italy Turkey
Kuzeybatı Kuzeydoğu
Japonya Hindistan İber Yarımadası Yunanistan İtalya Türkiye
Avrupa Amerika

Middle East
9.73 10.65 8.08 6.82 7.07 8.70 7.16 7.02
Orta Doğu
Australia
10.39 10.06 7.38 6.15 6.39 7.99 6.48 6.33
Avustralya
Nigeria
8.70 9.24 8.70 6.85 7.31 8.69 7.81 7.95
Nijerya
Norway
8.07 8.89 8.95 7.03 7.48 8.87 8.35 8.25
Norveç
Algeria
8.78 9.61 9.35 7.70 8.14 9.59 8.40 8.26
Cezayir
Trinidad and Tobago
7.75 8.61 8.67 6.79 7.25 8.63 7.83 8.59
Trinidad ve Tobago

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Argus Turkish Energy Markets Issue 17-249  |  Friday 22 December 2017

COAL and Petcoke MARKET KÖMÜR Ve Petrokok PİYASASI


Argus Turkish coal market prices
Turkey coal prices steady
Argus Türkiye kömür piyasası değerlendirmeleri
Turkey-delivered coal prices remained steady on the week,
TL/t ± $/t ±
with one cement maker cancelling a tender after deeming
Coal
offers too high. Kömür
22 Dec 2017

Prices for NAR 6,000 kcal/kg coal delivered to Turkey cif Marmara (spot) 404.16 -2.70 105.67 +0.34
on vessels of at least 50,000t remained flat on the week at cif İskenderun (spot) 389.16 -3.87 101.75
$101.75/t cif Turkey supra plus. Petroleum coke
20 Dec 2017
Petrokok
After delaying the conclusion on a tender to this week
del Turkey (spot) 4.5% 394.08 +1.59 103.00 +0.50
from 15 December, one cement maker ultimately cancelled a del Turkey (spot) 6.5% 325.21 +8.34 85.00 +2.25
tender for a late-January Panamax delivery of coal. Note: Coal prices are assessed every Friday in Argus Coal Daily International and
Offers of Russian and US coal proved too costly for the remain flat until the next assessment. Petcoke prices are assessed every Wednes-
buyer, which opted for domestic coal fines instead. day in Energy Argus Petroleum Coke and remain flat until the next assessment.

Spot activity in the country has been muted throughout Not: Kömür fiyatları her Cuma günü Argus Coal Daily International raporunda
this year, with a number of cement plants preferring to yayımlanmaktadır ve bir sonraki Cuma gününe kadar değişmemektedir. Petrokok
fiyatları ise her Çarşamba günü Energy Argus Petroleum Coke raporunda yayım-
blend volumes of petroleum coke with domestically sourced
lanmaktadır ve bir sonraki Çarşamba gününe kadar değişmemektedir.
coal.
And many utilities have been largely satisfied with support renewable generation, fell last month because of
contracted term tonnage as well, reducing the volumes lower output from renewable sources.
bought on the spot market, as many planned and unplanned And looking ahead, the power price outlook for 2018
shutdowns reduced overall coal consumption. seems higher than this year, which could help coal-fired
But generation at coal-fired utilities gained on the week utilities. Turkey’s state-owned power trading company Tetas
to 6.07GW from 16-21 December, up from 5.87GW in the will also supply less power to regulated suppliers next year,
previous week. Wind and gas-fired generation dropped over meaning firms will have to buy more power from the day-
this period to push coal burn up the generation mix. ahead market. Leaving purchases to the day-ahead market
The cost burden on Turkish coal-fired utilities eased in entails greater risk to coal utilities, but could also result in
November, as the Yek fee, a levy paid by thermal utilities to better margins if day-ahead power demand is high.

Argus Puerto Bolivar to Rotterdam (Capesize) $/t Argus cif ARA spot coal $/t

100
15
14
13 95
12
11
90
10
-- hhhhhhh hhhhhhh
9
8 85
7
6
5 80
15 Dec 16 21 Apr 17 23 Aug 17 22 Dec 17 3 Jul 30 Aug 26 Oct 22 Dec

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Argus Turkish Energy Markets Issue 17-249  |  Friday 22 December 2017

Crude and oil products markets PETROL VE PETROL ÜRÜNLERİ PİYASALARI


Argus regional oil price assessments 21 Dec 2017
Crude prices gain
Argus bölgesel petrol fiyat değerlendirmeleri
Global crude prices rose this week, after a pipeline leak
Market (10-25 days)
$/bl ±
shut in production of light sour Forties, the grade that most Ham Petrol (10-25 gün)
commonly sets the North Sea benchmark price. Atlantic Basrah Light fob Sidi Kerir 60.59 -0.42
basin benchmark North Sea Dated rose by 66¢/bl to $64.31/ Kirkuk 60.19 +0.08
bl, while US marker WTI climbed by 72¢/bl to $58.02/bl. Urals Med (80,000t) 64.14 +0.18
The flow along the Forties Pipeline System (FPS) may be Dated for Iraqi medium sour Basrah Light widened after
back to normal rates "early in the new year", operator Ineos Turkish refiner Tupras picked up a cargo of the grade in its
said, but in the meantime a number of cargoes have been latest tender.
deferred. Tupras was understood to have picked up a cargo of
Data released by the EIA in its Weekly Petroleum Status the Iraqi grade in its tender with traders saying the refiner
Report indicated a fifth straight week of declines in US crude bought the cargo at around Dated -4.00 on a cif Augusta
stocks — putting stocks at their lowest level since October basis.
2015. US crude inventories fell by 6.5mn bl to 436.5mn bl in Oil products stored independently in the Amsterdam-
the week to 15 December, driven by rising crude exports and Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) region rose by 5pc to 5.12mn t in
higher refinery runs. the week to 21 December, wiping out a 4.3pc stock draw in
In the Mediterranean region, discounts to North Sea the previous week, according to consultancy PJK.

WTI vs North Sea Dated $/t Urals Med vs North Sea Dated $/t

0.2
ICE Brent Nymex WTI
70 -0.0

-0.2
65
-0.4

-0.6
-- 60 hhhhhhh hh
hhhhhhh
-0.8

-1.0
55
-1.2
North Sea Dated = 0
50 -1.4
Feb 18 Mar 19 Apr 20 May 21 Jun 22 Jul 23 3 Jul 30 Aug 26 Oct 22 Dec

Urals Med vs Azeri Light $/t US Gulf Coast to Iskenderun freight $/t

-1 19.0

18.0
-2

17.0
-3
hh
hhhhhhh -- hhhhhhh
16.0

-4
15.0
Azeri Light = 0
-5 14.0
3 Jul 30 Aug 26 Oct 22 Dec 23 Mar 22 May 20 Jul

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Argus Turkish Energy Markets Issue 17-249  |  Friday 22 December 2017

News and analysis Haber ve Analİzler

ContourGlobal signs Kosovo power plant contract Doosan, have already expressed interest.
US electricity generator ContourGlobal has signed a deal ContourGlobal has agreed to provide capital financing to
with the Kosovan government to build the 500MW lignite- cover 30pc of development costs, and will also arrange loans
fired Kosova e Re plant for €1.3bn, Pristina said. from international institutions, according to the government.
Construction will begin in early 2019 and be completed Kosovo will take ownership of the plant after the first 20
in 2023, the government said. ContourGlobal will install years of operation at no additional cost. Kosova e Re is
supercritical technology at the facility, allowing for lower expected to have an operating life of 40 years.
lignite consumption and lower emissions. The plant will replace the three operating 200MW blocks
Kosova e Re will run with a net efficiency of at least at the outdated 800MW lignite-fired Kosova A plant, which
40pc and be built in line with EU environmental standards, are due to be decommissioned at the end of 2022. Kosova
the government said. It will also supply heat to several A and the 680MW Kosovo B plant, which also fires lignite,
cities. account for about 95pc of Kosovo's total power output. The
ContourGlobal plans to launch an international rest is produced by small hydropower plants.
procurement process to select contractors. The government Plans to build Kosova e Re have been on the table for
said several engineering firms, including the US' GE, Japan's about a decade, but the project suffered several delays.
Mitsubishi Hitachi, Germany's Siemens and South Korea's

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Argus Turkish Energy Markets Issue 17-249  |  Friday 22 December 2017

Spark and dark spreads Spark ve dark spreadler

Turkish base load dark and spark spreads


TL/MWh
Türkiye baz yük spark ve dark spreadler
Fuel type Power plant efficiency
Yakıt türü Elektrik santrali verimliliği
34% 38% 49.13% 58%

Day-ahead spark (Exist day ahead)


-56.38 -33.99 +9.12 +31.62
Gün öncesi spark (Epiaş PTF)

Month-ahead spark (Botas)


+1.11 +21.59 +61.05 +81.65
Ön-ay spark (Botaş tarifesi)

LNG Turkey
-182.04 -142.27 -65.70 -25.71
LNG Türkiye

Dark spread (cif Iskenderun) +31.72 +48.99 +82.23 +99.59

Argus Russian Coal


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Argus Turkish Energy Markets Issue 17-249  |  Friday 22 December 2017

Weather forecast HAVA TaHMİNLERİ

Weather and Rainfall Forecasts - Departure from normal temperatures


°C
Sıcaklık ve Yağış Tahminleri - Normal değerlerden sapmalar
Location Rainfall
Yer Yağış
23 Dec 24 Dec 25 Dec 26 Dec 27 Dec (mm)
Avg Avg Avg Avg Avg 5-day 15-day
± normal* ± normal* ± normal* ± normal* ± normal*
Ort Ort Ort Ort Ort 5-gün 5-gün

Antalya 13.7 2.3 9.1 -2.3 11.1 -0.2 11.1 -0.1 11.7 0.5 12.5 63.8
Bingöl 4.9 5.6 3.7 4.5 2.4 3.4 2.5 3.6 2.6 3.8 43.1 67.2
Bursa 3.2 -3.4 2.3 -4.2 5.6 -0.9 8.1 1.7 8.3 2.0 20.4 48.7
Çorum 1.2 -0.1 -4.3 -5.5 -2.7 -3.8 -1.6 -2.6 -1.1 -2.1 19.1 33.4
Ankara / Esenboğa -0.1 -0.6 -3.3 -3.7 -1.6 -1.9 -0.3 -0.5 0.5 0.4 14.0 30.6
İstanbul / Atatürk 5.7 -2.1 5.4 -2.3 9.1 1.5 9.5 2.0 10.2 2.8 10.9 34.0
İzmir / Adnan Menderes 4.8 -3.3 4.3 -3.7 6.2 -1.7 8.4 0.5 9.8 2.0 8.2 59.4
Konya 4.6 3.2 -3.4 -4.7 -1.9 -3.2 0.6 -0.6 1.4 0.3 10.6 20.1
Uşak 3.4 -1.0 -1.2 -5.5 2.5 -1.7 4.7 0.5 5.2 1.1 12.2 38.8
Yozgat 3.3 2.8 -4.6 -5.0 -3.3 -3.6 -0.5 -0.7 0.3 0.1 22.2 35.8
Bulgaria - Sofia Weather Station
-1.6 -1.9 1.4 1.2 6.3 6.2 5.5 5.4 4.2 4.1 1.1 10.6
Bulgaristan - Sofya Meteoroloji İstasyonu
Greece - Athens Airport
9.3 -1.8 9.6 -1.5 13.1 2.1 13.2 2.3 13.0 2.1 2.1 32.7
Yunanistan - Atina Havaalanı
Hungary - Budapest Lorinc
3.6 3.1 5.5 5.1 2.9 2.5 2.3 1.9 4.1 3.7 1.8 19.2
Macaristan - Budapeşte Lorinc
Romania - Bucharest/ Imh
0.7 0.8 3.2 3.3 4.7 4.9 2.9 3.2 2.3 2.6 0.3 5.7
Romanya - Bükreş / Imh
Serbia — Belgrad Surcin
3.6 1.7 6.4 4.6 6.0 4.3 4.0 2.3 5.5 3.9 1.4 12.9
Sırbistan — Belgrad Surcin
*normal means cleaned 10-year average (2004-2013 inclusive)
*"normal" hatalı ölçümlerden arındırılmış 10 yıllık (2004-2013) ortalama demektir.
— Ensemble forecasts (12.00 GMT) provided by Speedwell Weather
— Speedwell Weather tarafından yapılan (12.00 GMT) grup tahminleri

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