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Initiation Report
The CFV Matrix (CRISIL Fundamental and Valuation Matrix) addresses the two important analysis of an investment making process –
Analysis of Fundamentals (addressed through Fundamental Grade) and Analysis of Returns (Valuation Grade) The fundamental
grade is assigned on a five-point scale from grade 5 (indicating Excellent fundamentals) to grade 1 (Poor fundamentals) The
valuation grade is assigned on a five-point scale from grade 5 (indicating strong upside from the current market price (CMP)) to
grade 1 (strong downside from the CMP).
Analyst Disclosure
Each member of the team involved in the preparation of the grading report, hereby affirms that there exists no conflict of interest
that can bias the grading recommendation of the company.
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Polaris Software Limited
Chaman Lal Setia
Business momentum Exports Ltd
remains intact
Measured moves for future growth March 04, 2011
Fair Value Rs 39
Fundamental Grade 2/5
4/5 (Moderate fundamentals)
(Strong fundamentals)
CMP Rs 31
Valuation Grade 4/5
5/5 (CMP has upside)
strong upside)
CFV MATRIX
Industry Information
Food technology
Products Excellent
Fundamentals
Chaman Lal Setia Exports Ltd (Chaman Lal) manufactures basmati rice. We
5
assign Chaman Lal a fundamental grade of ‘2/5’, indicating that its
Fundamental Grade
fundamentals are ‘moderate’ relative to other listed securities in India. The 4
grade reflects the company’s small-scale operations and lack of aggression in
business expansion. 3
Also, the company’s 14 tph (tonnes per hour) production capacity is one of the
Valuation Grade
lowest amongst organised players.
Downside
Strong
Strong
Upside
Measured moves for future growth
With the entry of second generation promoters, Chaman Lal has renewed its
focus on expanding the business. The company has ventured into new KEY STOCK STATISTICS
geographies like Australia, New Zealand and Singapore. It is also planning to NIFTY / SENSEX 5516/18417
increase marketing spend for its brand ‘Maharani’ to increase retail presence. BSE ticker CHAMANSEQ
However, the management is taking measured steps, whereby volumes will Face value (Rs per share) 10
pick up slowly and steadily. Shares outstanding (mn) 5.8
Market cap (Rs mn)/(US$ mn) 1804
Diabetic rice may be a game changer
Enterprise value (Rs mn)/(US$ mn) 505/11
Chaman Lal’s strong R&D has developed rice with low Glimex Index suitable
52-week range (Rs) (H/L) 53/27
for diabetics. The company is currently marketing the rice in export markets
and has entered into an agreement with Marico to supply diabetic rice which Beta 1.09
will be marketed as ‘Safola Arise’. Chaman Lal plans to market the rice locally Free float (%) 25.3%
under its brand ‘Maharani’ in 2HCY12. With the larger populace becoming Avg daily volumes (30-days) 34,316.7
highly health conscious, diabetic rice holds huge potential and can be a game Avg daily value (30-days) (Rs mn) 1.4
changer for the company.
SHAREHOLDING PATTERN
Revenues to grow at two-year CAGR of 5%, EPS to be Rs 12.9 in FY12 100%
CRISIL Equities expects the company’s revenue to grow at a CAGR of 5% to Rs 90%
25.3% 25.3% 25.3% 25.3%
2 bn during FY10 to FY12, supported by increased volumes. PAT is expected to 80%
increase at a CAGR of 3.3% to Rs 74.3 mn over FY10 to FY12. EPS is expected 70%
60%
to be Rs 9.5 in FY11 and Rs 12.9 in FY12.
50%
Valuations: Current market price has upside 40%
74.7% 74.7% 74.7% 74.7%
We have used the P/E multiple approach to value Chaman Lal and arrived at a 30%
fair value of Rs 39 per share. We have assigned a P/E multiple of 3x to the 20%
10%
company as its lack of focus on volume growth can impact profits adversely,
0%
should basmati prices fall. We initiate coverage with a valuation grade of Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10
‘4/5’, indicating that the market price has ‘upside’ from the current levels. Promoters Others
CRISIL EQUITIES | 1
Chaman Lal Setia Exports Ltd
Key competitors • Domestic and export markets: KRBL, REI Agro, Kohinoor foods, LT Foods, unbranded
basmati and private labels
Demand drivers • Lifestyle changes: With increasing Indian middle-class population, mall culture and
growth in hotels and restaurants, domestic demand for basmati is on the rise.
• Increasing preference for basmati rice in export markets
• Food scarcity across the globe with restriction on normal rice exports
Margin drivers • Purchase of paddy at lower prices instead of purchasing semi-finished rice
• Process improvement and change in product mix
CRISIL EQUITIES | 2
Chaman Lal Setia Exports Ltd
GRADING RATIONALE
Basmati rice industry: poised for strong growth
India’s basmati rice industry is poised for strong growth following an increase in
India’s basmati rice
demand for basmati rice both locally and internationally. India’s basmati rice
exports have increased
exports have increased at a CAGR of 24% between FY07 and FY10 supported by at a CAGR of 24%
between FY07 and FY10
strong demand from countries such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iran and the UK.
The industry has greatly benefitted from global acceptance and increase in
demand for the new hybrid basmati varieties such as Pusa – 1121.
texture and is one of the most expensive varieties of generally available rice
in the world.
• Lower regulations: Due to its premium nature, basmati rice is not subject
has grown at a CAGR of 12% since FY00, while the market size has grown
volumes rising at a 24% CAGR since FY07 and pricing at 26%, the industry
mall culture and growth in hotels and restaurants, domestic demand for
2000 95
100
1750
1500 80
1250
60
1000 43
750 28 30 28 40
22 21 20
500 18 18
20
1163
1167
1046
1182
1556
2017
250
771
849
709
638
667
0 0
FY00
FY01
FY02
FY03
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
CRISIL EQUITIES | 3
Chaman Lal Setia Exports Ltd
Source: RMSI
However, notwithstanding its small size, the company is well known for
producing quality basmati rice. It has also developed a niche for itself by
basmati rice.
Kohinoor Foods 60
LT Overseas 38
MT per hour
CRISIL EQUITIES | 4
Chaman Lal Setia Exports Ltd
Figure 3: Volumes have remained range bound Figure 4: Improved realisation boost revenues
40,000 22% 25% 2,000 54% 60%
20% 1,800
35,000 50%
13% 1,600
15%
30,000
35% 40%
1,400
35,657 10%
25,000
1,200
5% 30%
20,000 1,000
35,991 0% 1861
33,456 20%
37,642 29,423 800 1538
15,000
-5%
600 4% 1209 10%
10,000 -5% -10% 400 809
5,000 -17% 0%
-15% 200 948 -1%
- -20% 0 -10%
FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010
to develop new processes which will further improve the quality of rice. The
company has developed rice with low Glimex Index (GI), which is suitable for
The company has
developed rice with low
diabetic people who avoid the normal rice. The diabetic rice has been certified by
Glimex Index (GI), which
Indian and international agencies and is already being exported to the UK,
is suitable for diabetic
Singapore, USA and UAE. While the company developed the rice, it was not able
people
to patent it, as it released a working paper on diabetic rice before applying for
patent. As per the management, nobody else has the know-how of processing
already sells the low-GI rice in export markets under the Maharani brand. In
exclusive supplier of low-GI basmatic rice. Marico is expected to market the rice
under the brand ‘Saffola Arise’. ChamanaLal expects to launch the diabetic rice
in domestic market under the Maharani brand during 2HCY12. With the change
in focus of people on maintaining a healthy lifestyle the diabetic rice holds huge
end customer is not aware of the brands. In the export market, the company
Taking the right steps for future growth: With the entry of second
generation promoters, Chaman Lal has renewed its focus on expanding
business. Over the past two years, the company has ventured into new
CRISIL EQUITIES | 5
Chaman Lal Setia Exports Ltd
geographies such as New Zealand, Australia and Singapore. The management It is planning to increase
its production capacity to
expects volume growth to increase as presence in the newer geograhies gets
20 tph in FY12
established. Also, the company is planning to expand its production capacity to
20 tph in FY12 from 14 tph.
New branding strategy: Going forward, Chaman Lal intends to focus on the
has already introduced attractive packaging for 'Maharani' rice and is in the
brand. Establishment of a strong brand could help Chaman Lal improve sales
CRISIL EQUITIES | 6
Chaman Lal Setia Exports Ltd
Key Risks
Domestic and international regulatory challenges
Basmati rice exports are often hindered by regulatory policies implemented by
the Indian government as well from those countries where the rice is being
exported.
Although historically, India has not witnessed a ban on basmati rice exports,
any policy change in this regard could have a significant impact on the
Saudi Arabia: CSE exports rice to the Saudi Arabian market. In order to
the import subsidy of $267 per tonne, as a result of which, realisations for
exporters are likely to fall. Any similar events in the importing countries
still prone to the vagaries of nature. In the event of scanty or no rainfall, the rice
CRISIL EQUITIES | 7
Chaman Lal Setia Exports Ltd
Financial Outlook
Revenues to grow on back of volume growth
Figure 5: Revenues expected to grow at a two-year CAGR of 5%
(Rs mn)
2,500 28% 27% 30%
1,827
25%
Revenue growth driven
21%
2,000 primarily by growth in
20%
basmati sales volumes
1,500 2,061
15%
13%
10%
1,000
1,861
1,538 5%
1,209
500
-2%
0%
- -5%
40,000 20%
40,396 50,000 50%
29,423
35,000 36,888 15%
10%
35,991 34% 40%
30,000 10% 40,000
2% 30%
25,000 5%
30,000
20,000 -5% 0% 51,973 51,588 50,850 20%
49,386
15,000 -5% 20,000
33,569 3% 10%
10,000 -10% -1%
10,000 -4%
-17% 0%
5,000 -15%
- -20% - -10%
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12
Figure 8: EBITDA margin trend Figure 9: PAT and PAT margin trend
(Rs mn) (Rs mn)
8.3% 3.7% 3.7%
180 9% 80 3.6% 4.0%
160 70 3.5%
8% 3.0%
140
7.9% 60 3.0%
8%
120 129
50 2.5%
7.8%
100 7%
40 2.0%
80 162 74
96 7.1% 7% 70
144 35
30 1.1% 1.5%
60 55
6% 50
100
20 1.0%
40
6.2%
6% 10 0.5%
20
0 5% 0 0.0%
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12
CRISIL EQUITIES | 8
Chaman Lal Setia Exports Ltd
Management Overview
CRISIL's fundamental grading methodology includes a broad assessment of
management quality, apart from other key factors such as industry and business
led by Mr Chaman Lal Setia (chairman and managing director) who looks after
could result in cost savings. The R&D focus has also been vindicated by the
development of new varieties of basmati rice such as rice for diabetics and
pesticide-free rice which has, in turn, improved realisations. Mr Vijay Setia has
also applied for patents in his individual capacity for certain process
improvements done at the plant to reduce the water and power utilisation.
production capacity of 14 tph, and its volumes have been range bound over the
past five years despite strong growth reported by the basmati industry.
have also joined the operations and are actively involved in the business
activities. Mr Vijay Setia’s son Ankit Setia is a qualified food technologist and
position in the domestic as well export market. As per our interaction with the
CRISIL EQUITIES | 9
Chaman Lal Setia Exports Ltd
Corporate Governance
CRISIL’s fundamental grading methodology includes a broad assessment of
corporate governance and management quality, apart from other key factors
by a strong and fairly independent board, good and relevant experience and
Board composition
Chaman Lal’s board consists of well-qualified directors with experience in various
fields. Based on our discussions and the company’s disclosure levels, we are of
the opinion that the board’s structure, processes and disclosure conform to the
required standards.
the six, five are independent directors. This is well above the minimum
stipulated standard set in the SEBI listing guidelines. The balance sheet
director, Mr Inder Dev Kukkar; it has two other independent directors on board
which limits its ability to maintain proper business data. The company’s quality
CRISIL EQUITIES | 10
Chaman Lal Setia Exports Ltd
prefer to use a low muliple of 3x, a 50% discount to the multiple assigned for
KRBL, the best basmati play, as per CRISIL Equities. Accordingly, we initiate
coverage on Chaman Lal with a valuation grade of ‘4/5’, indicating that the
Peer comparison
Mkt Cap EPS (Rs) P/E (x) RoE (%) P/BV (x)
Company CMP (Rs mn) FY10 FY11E FY12E FY13E FY10 FY11E FY12E FY13E FY10 FY11E FY12E FY13E FY10 FY11E FY12E FY13E
Chamanlal Setia
Exports Ltd 31 180 12.1 9.5 12.9 14.1 2.6 3.3 2.4 2.2 24.1 16.2 19.4 18.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4
KRBL Ltd 25 7195 5.1 5.7 7.4 7.6 4.9 4.4 3.4 3.3 26.0 23.1 24.1 20.0 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.6
Lakshmi Energy
and Foods Ltd 45 2,942 29.4 14.3 17.1 23.8 1.5 3.1 2.6 1.9 36.6 15.3 15.8 18.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3
REI Agro Ltd 28 25,866 4.9 2.3 2.8 na 5.7 12.1 10.0 na 18.2 19.3 18.9 na 1.0 2.3 1.9 na
Median 3.7 3.8 3.0 2.3 25.0 17.7 18.8 18.6 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.4
Average 3.7 5.7 4.6 2.5 26.2 18.5 19.4 18.8 0.8 1.1 0.9 0.4
Source: Industry, CRISIL Equities
Figure 10: One-year forward P/E band Figure 11: One-year forward EV/EBITDA band
(Rs) (Rs mn)
70 900
800
60
700
50
600
40 500
30 400
300
20
200
10
100
0 0
Feb-10
May-10
Feb-11
May-09
Feb-10
May-10
Feb-11
Jul-06
Jul-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Jul-06
Dec-06
Mar-07
Sep-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Apr-06
Oct-06
Jan-07
Apr-07
Oct-07
Jun-08
Jun-09
Aug-10
Nov-10
Apr-06
Oct-06
Jun-07
Jun-08
Aug-09
Nov-09
Aug-10
Nov-10
Figure 12: P/E – premium / discount to NIFTY Figure 13: P/E movement
12
0%
-10%
10
-20%
-30% 8
-40%
-50% 6 +1 std dev
-60%
4
-70%
-80% 2
-90% -1 std dev
-100% 0
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Nov-09
Nov-10
Feb-10
May-10
Feb-11
Jul-06
Jul-07
Jul-08
Oct-06
Oct-07
Oct-08
Aug-09
Aug-10
Apr-06
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Nov-09
Nov-10
May-10
Jul-06
Jul-07
Jul-08
Feb-10
Feb-11
Oct-06
Oct-07
Oct-08
Aug-09
Aug-10
Apr-06
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
CRISIL EQUITIES | 11
Chaman Lal Setia Exports Ltd
Company Overview
Incorporated in 1974, Chaman Lal mills, processes and markets basmati rice. It
started exporting basmati rice in 1982. It markets its products in the Middle
East, the UK, the US and Iran. It markets its products under its flagship brand
“Maharani” and also under private labels. Chaman Lal’s rice processing facilities,
capacity of 14 tph. Over the years, the company has gained strong experience in
the processing of basmati rice and has developed several in-house technologies
that produce quality rice with uniform colour. Chaman Lal has developed an
Milestones
1974 Chaman Lal Setia established as a partnership firm
1982 Started basmati rice export
1995 Listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange
2007 Started production of basmati rice for diabetics
CRISIL EQUITIES | 12
Chaman Lal Setia Exports Ltd
Annexure: Financials
Income statement Balance Sheet
(Rs mn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E (Rs mn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E
Operating income 1,209 1,538 1,861 1,827 2,061 Liabilities
EBITDA 100 96 144 129 162 Equity share capital 94 94 94 94 94
EBITDA margin 8.3% 6.2% 7.8% 7.1% 7.9% Reserves 170 171 224 262 317
Depreciation 10 17 17 17 18 Minorities - - - - -
EBIT 90 79 128 111 144 Net worth 264 265 318 356 411
Interest 35 32 30 34 38 C onvertible debt - - - - -
Operating PBT 56 47 98 77 106 Other debt 493 371 403 353 333
Other income 6 4 4 4 5 Total debt 493 371 403 353 333
Exceptional inc/(exp) (5) (18) (0) - - Deferred tax liability (net) 5 7 11 11 11
PBT 56 34 102 81 111 Total liabilities 762 643 731 720 754
Tax provision 11 16 32 27 37 Assets
Minority interest - - - - - Net fixed assets 67 108 112 120 112
PAT (Reported) 45 18 70 55 74 C apital WIP 0 - 1 1 1
Less: Exceptionals (5) (18) (0) - - Total fixed assets 67 108 114 121 113
Adjusted PAT 50 35 70 55 74 Investments 1 1 1 1 1
Current assets
Ratios Inventory 522 345 373 367 414
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E Sundry debtors 175 157 227 223 252
Growth Loans and advances 11 11 2 12 13
Operating income (%) 27.5 27.2 21.0 (1.8) 12.8 C ash & bank balance 45 80 77 60 33
EBITDA (%) 63.4 (4.6) 50.9 (10.8) 25.6 Marketable securities - 3 - - -
Adj PAT (%) 123.1 (29.3) 97.6 (22.1) 36.2 Total current assets 753 596 680 662 712
Adj EPS (%) 123.1 (29.3) 97.6 (22.1) 36.2 Total current liabilities 58 62 63 64 71
Net current assets 694 534 617 598 641
Profitability Intangibles/Misc. expenditure - - - - -
EBITDA margin (%) 8.3 6.2 7.8 7.1 7.9 Total assets 762 643 731 720 754
Adj PAT Margin (%) 4.1 2.3 3.8 3.0 3.6
RoE (%) 20.3 13.4 24.1 16.2 19.4 Cash flow
RoC E (%) 14.3 11.3 18.8 15.6 19.8 (Rs mn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E
RoIC (%) 15.6 11.3 17.4 14.4 17.2 Pre-tax profit 61 51 103 81 111
Total tax paid (10) (14) (29) (27) (37)
Valuations Depreciation 10 17 17 17 18
Price-earnings (x) 3.7 5.2 2.6 3.4 2.5 Working capital changes (254) 198 (89) 3 (69)
Price-book (x) 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 Net cash from operations (193) 252 2 75 23
EV/EBITDA (x) 6.3 4.9 3.5 3.7 3.0 Cash from investments
EV/Sales (x) 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 C apital expenditure (15) (58) (22) (25) (10)
Dividend payout ratio (%) 23.7 92.6 25.0 24.8 23.1 Investments and others 1 (3) 3 - -
Dividend yield (%) 5.8 8.8 9.4 7.3 9.3 Net cash from investments (15) (61) (19) (25) (10)
Cash from financing
B/S ratios Equity raised/(repaid) 0 0 1 - -
Inventory days 184 97 85 84 85 Debt raised/(repaid) 217 (122) 32 (50) (20)
C reditors days 16 11 10 10 10 Dividend (incl. tax) (11) (16) (17) (14) (17)
Debtor days 53 37 45 45 45 Others (incl extraordinaries) (6) (18) (0) (2) (3)
Working capital days 158 131 97 108 101 Net cash from financing 200 (156) 15 (66) (40)
Gross asset turnover (x) 8.3 8.6 8.7 7.7 8.1 C hange in cash position (8) 35 (3) (16) (27)
Net asset turnover (x) 18.8 17.6 16.9 15.7 17.8 C losing cash 45 80 77 60 33
Sales/operating assets (x) 18.8 17.6 16.8 15.6 17.6
C urrent ratio (x) 12.9 9.6 10.8 10.4 10.0 Quarterly financials
Debt-equity (x) 1.9 1.4 1.3 1.0 0.8 (Rs mn) Q3FY10 Q4FY10 Q1FY11 Q2FY11 Q3FY11
Net debt/equity (x) 1.7 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.7 Net Sales 535 505 347 428 498
Interest coverage 2.6 2.5 4.3 3.2 3.8 C hange (q-o-q) 40% -6% -31% 23% 16%
EBITDA 34.2 55.7 19.0 18.9 33.1
Per share C hange (q-o-q) 57% 63% -66% -1% 76%
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E EBITDA margin 6.4% 11.0% 5.5% 4.4% 6.7%
Adj EPS (Rs) 8.7 6.1 12.1 9.5 12.9 PAT 18.9 27.8 7.1 10.1 16.7
C EPS 10.4 9.1 15.0 12.5 16.0 Adj PAT 18.9 27.8 7.1 10.1 16.7
Book value 45.8 45.9 55.1 61.8 71.2 C hange (q-o-q) 45% 47% -74% 42% 64%
Dividend (Rs) 1.8 2.8 3.0 2.3 3.0 Adj PAT margin 3.5% 5.5% 2.1% 2.4% 3.4%
Actual o/s shares (mn) 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 Adj EPS 3.3 4.8 1.2 1.7 2.9
CRISIL EQUITIES | 13
Chaman Lal Setia Exports Ltd
Focus Charts
Increase in India’s basmati rice exports Basmati rice milling capacity of Indian players
750 28 30 28 40 LT Overseas 38
22 21 20
18 18
500
20 Chaman Lal Setia 14
1163
1167
1046
1182
1556
2017
250
849
771
709
638
667
0 0
0 50 100 150 200
FY00
FY01
FY02
FY03
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
MT per hour
Volume (LHS) Value (RHS) *Lakshmi Energy alternates between basmati and non-basmati
frequently
Source: Company, CRISIL Equities Source: Company, CRISIL Equities
40,000 20%
40,396 50,000 50%
35,000 36,888 15%
10%
35,991 34% 40%
30,000 35,657 10% 40,000
2% 30%
25,000 5%
30,000
20,000 29,423 0%
-5% 51,973 51,588 49,386 50,850 20%
15,000 -5% 20,000
33,569 3% 10%
10,000 -10% -1%
10,000 -4%
-17% 0%
5,000 -15%
- -20% - -10%
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12
PAT and PAT margin trend Shareholding pattern over the quarters
(Rs mn) 100%
3.7% 3.7%
80 3.6% 4.0%
90%
25.3% 25.3% 25.3% 25.3%
70 3.5% 80%
3.0%
60 3.0% 70%
50 2.5% 60%
40 2.0% 50%
74
70
35 40%
30 1.1% 1.5% 74.7% 74.7% 74.7% 74.7%
55
50 30%
20 1.0%
20%
10 0.5%
10%
0 0.0%
0%
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10
CRISIL EQUITIES | 14
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