Japan’s Prime Minister~ SHINZO ABE

Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe dissolved Parliament in late

September, sending the country to the polls in a snap election today.
In the days that followed, Japanese politics suddenly got very interesting.
Two new political parties emerged onto the scene in quick succession to challenge
Mr. Abe's hold on power.
The popular Governor of Tokyo, Yuriko Koike, launched the Party of Hope, a
"reformist conservative" party and polls showed 18 per cent of voters planned to support
her.
Another party, led by the former cabinet minister Yukio Edano, also burst onto the
scene, offering to fill a major void of representation on the left wing of politics.
But now, on the cusp of the election, Japan looks set to stick with Mr Abe — a
leader who is both deeply unpopular and pursuing a policy agenda rejected by much of
the electorate.
A few months ago, Shinzo Abe faced calls to resign as a cronyism scandal sent
his popularity tanking. On Thursday he’s expected to easily win a party vote that could
make him Japan’s longest-serving leader.
The turnaround, according to Abe’s colleagues, comes from a steely resolve
forged after his first 12-month stint as prime minister ended abruptly in 2007 -- as well as
a solid economy, political savvy and a hefty dose of good fortune.
Abe looks set for another three-year term as party leader, giving Japan continuity
at a time when U.S. President Donald Trump continues to smack the country over trade,
and nuclear talks with North Korea are reaching a critical stage. Japan is also getting
ready to host the Group of 20 summit in 2019, and the Summer Olympics in Tokyo the
following year.
“He’s extremely determined,” said Katsuei Hirasawa, a lawmaker with the ruling
Liberal Democratic Party who served as a personal tutor to Abe in his childhood. “But
what’s really important for a leader is to be lucky, and he is.”
 Abe and wife Akie after announcing his intention to stand as Prime Minister in 2006.
Photographer: Koichi Kamoshida/Getty Images

For Abe, that wasn’t always the case. The heir of a political dynasty, he was long
seen as destined for the premiership. He made it in 2006, becoming Japan’s youngest
postwar prime minister when he took over from the wavy-haired Junichiro Koizumi, who
enjoyed immense popularity during most of his five-year run in office.
Yet things fell apart quickly. Political scandals marred his cabinet, and his party
lost control of the upper house of parliament for the first time in about 50 years. Suffering
from an intestinal ailment, Abe stepped down a year after taking power.
Revolving Door
His resignation not only seemed like the end of his career, but opened the way for
a revolving door series of short-lived premiers that led to policy confusion and eroded
Japan’s standing in the world. Two years later, the LDP lost the lower house of parliament
to the opposition Democratic Party of Japan, ending a half-century of almost unbroken
rule.
 A broadcast of Abe’s resignation is shown on TV screens in Tokyo in Sept. 2007.
Photographer: Yoshikazu Tsuno/AFP via Getty Images
“He lost his health and went through hell,” said Sanae Takaichi, who served under
Abe as LDP policy chief and internal affairs minister from 2014-2017. “I could sense the
strength it took to climb back up from there.”
Abe didn’t waste his years in the wilderness. By the time he returned to lead his
party a second time in 2012, he had hammered out a new set of policy priorities with
broader appeal. Rather than focusing on pet projects like trying to foster national pride in
schools, he prioritized bread-and-butter economic issues. He also maintained
relationships within the party, which were key to his success in the leadership race.

Shinzo Abe is applauded after being elected Japan’s prime minister in Dec. 2012.
Photographer: Haruyoshi Yamaguchi/Bloomberg

“Those who supported Mr. Abe at the time were really very conservative,” said
Masahiko Shibayama, an LDP lawmaker who serves as a special advisor to the party
leader. “But Mr. Abe said that we should put the economy at the center of our policies.”
Loyal allies including Shibayama helped Abe come up with a prescription for growth,
involving monetary easing, fiscal flexibility and regulatory reform -- what later came to be
called Abenomics.
Despite doubts over whether the medicine would revive Japan’s deflation-bound
economy, his agenda sparked a rise in the stock market even before he took office. It
resonated with the public: Abe’s popularity climbed to a peak in 2013 when he appointed
Haruhiko Kuroda, a fellow proponent of drastic monetary easing, as governor of the Bank
of Japan.
“Good policy in the early years” is part of the reason for Abe’s survival, according
to Robert Feldman, senior advisor at Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co. in Tokyo. He
cited the accord with the Bank of Japan on fighting deflation, as well as corporate tax cuts
and the loosening of visa requirements for tourists.
The economy has grown more than 12 percent since Abe took office in 2012, the
strongest expansion since the 1990s. That growth, as well as unemployment levels
hovering around their lowest in more than 20 years, has helped many in the party overlook
recent scandals over government land for schools provided to associates of Abe and his
wife Akie.
“There are various opinions about this, but I think the main reason he has been
able to maintain this long administration is that monetary and fiscal policy and structural
reform have combined to produce results, and things are ticking over,” said Eiichi
Hasegawa, special advisor to the prime minister, who has known Abe for 25 years.

Abe and Shigeru Ishiba

Photographer: Behrouz Mehri/AFP via Getty Images

A Sankei newspaper poll earlier this month showed Abe had the support of 87
percent of LDP lawmakers over his sole opponent Shigeru Ishiba, who has emphasized
the need for social security reform and fiscal balance for the debt-ridden economy.
“People want politicians to be highly moral, but they will to some extent support a
president or prime minister despite scandals and insincere explanations if the economy
is good,” said LDP lawmaker Ryosei Akazawa, who is backing Ishiba in the party
leadership race.
Besides pressing forward on the economy, Abe has backed away from some
conservative policies that appeal to his right-wing base, but worry broader sections of the
electorate.
While Koizumi made annual trips to the Yasukuni Shrine, seen by many in Asia as
a symbol of Japan’s past military aggression, Abe has visited only once since taking
office. His statement on the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II avoided
inflammatory nationalist rhetoric. And Abe’s assiduous courting of China has helped
restore a relationship with Japan’s biggest trading partner that was at its most hostile in
decades when he took office.
 Abe hosts China’s Premier Li Keqiang in Tokyo in May 2018.
Photographer: David Mareuil/AFP via Getty Images

Abe has also been smart on calling elections, according to Tsuneo Watanabe,
senior research fellow of the Sasakawa Peace Foundation, a policy research group in
Tokyo. The LDP retained its two-thirds parliamentary majority in an election last October
that Abe called amid heightened public concern over North Korea’s missile threat.
“The timing of the last two elections has been very skillful,” Watanabe said. “They
came when the opposition was least expecting it.”
While Abe’s strategic moves have paid off, lawmakers also say he owes a lot to
luck. North Korea’s aggressive missile launches and nuclear tests focused public
attention on national security, weakening opposition to his policies of increasing defense
spending and broadening the role of the armed forces.

Shinjiro Koizumi
Photographer: Shiho Fukada/Bloomberg

Abe also benefited from an opposition that crumbled once it lost power, helping
him to win five straight electoral victories and push ahead with legislation largely without
obstruction. No credible rivals have appeared within his own party, either. The LDP’s most
popular member is Koizumi’s son Shinjiro who at 37 is considered a neophyte in
Japanese politics.
Despite facing little opposition in his party, Abe faces key challenges in the coming
weeks -- none more so than with Japan’s only treaty ally. Shortly after the LDP election,
his administration is set for contentious trade talks with the U.S., and an election for
governor on the southern island of Okinawa -- home to American military bases -- risks
further straining ties.
For a few days Abe will be able to enjoy what may be an unprecedented run as Japan’s
leader. He’s got another 14 months before surpassing Taro Katsura, who served several
stints in the early 20th century, as the country’s longest-serving prime minister.

Shinzo Abe
Photographer: Akio Kon/Bloomberg

But don’t expect any celebrations for Abe across Japan. His support among the
public remains tepid, with most voters wary of doing anything to further disrupt an
economy many fear is perpetually in decline as society ages.
“People both support and don’t support him at the same time,” said Masao
Matsumoto, professor in the Social Survey Research Center at Saitama University. “For
the moment, they want the current situation to continue, so there’s no reason to get rid of
Prime Minister Abe.”
 JAPAN’S PRIME MINISTER~ SHINZO ABE

___________________________

A Research Paper
Presented to the
BACHELOR OF SCIENCE IN INTERNATIONAL STUDIES
Mindanao Kokusai Daigaku
Lanang, Davao City

_____________________________

In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the

ISJP3-Contemporary Japanese Society

____________________________

By:

LOVERN JORICH T. BIO

October 2018