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media 2.9506%
desvest 1.1447%
Resumen
Estadísticas de la regresión
Coeficiente de correlación múltiple 0.5574872464
Coeficiente de determinación R^2 0.3107920299
R^2 ajustado 0.2615628892
Error típico 0.0110656605
Observaciones 16
ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad Suma de cuadrados
Regresión 1 0.0007730406
Residuos 14 0.0017142838
Total 15 0.0024873244
Residuos
0.01 6.00%
0
4.00%
Y
0.50%1.00%1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%4.00%4.50%5.00%
-0.01
2.00%
-0.02
Variable X 1 0.00%
0.50% 1.00%
0.02
0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Muestra percentil
Variable X 1 Curva de regresión ajustada
10.00%
8.00%
6.00%
4.00%
Y
2.00%
0.00%
0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 3.00% 3.50% 4.00% 4.50% 5.00%
Variable X 1
Y Pronóstico para Y
Exhibit 2
PRICEMAX
U.S. Retail Sales Growth and PriceMax Total Revenues Growth 2000–2008
Y X
Year U.S. Retail Sales Growth PriceMax Total
(All General-Merchandise Stores) Revenues Growth
2000 6.33% 12.10%
2001 5.75% 11.03%
2002 4.46% 13.29%
2003 4.98% 12.34%
2004 6.10% 11.46%
2005 6.23% 12.34%
2006 4.90% 13.06%
2007 4.39% 6.52%
2008 3.07% 2.49%
2009 4.11% 8.10%
2000 3.66% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
2001 0.75% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0%
2002 1.60% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0%
2003 2.51% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%
2004 3.64% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
2005 2.94% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%
2006 2.78% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%
2007 2.03% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%
2008 1.28% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0%
owth (%)
3-3.9 4-4.9 5-5.9 >6+
100% 0% 0% 0%
0% 0% 0% 0%
0% 0% 0% 0%
0% 0% 0% 0%
100% 0% 0% 0%
0% 0% 0% 0%
0% 0% 0% 0%
0% 0% 0% 0%
0% 0% 0% 0%
owth (%)
3-3.9 4-4.9 5-5.9 >6+
30% 20% 0% 0%
5% 0% 0% 0%
5% 0% 0% 0%
30% 10% 0% 0%
15% 50% 20% 0%
40% 10% 0% 0%
40% 5% 0% 0%
22% 2% 0% 0%
8% 0% 0% 0%
0% 0% 0% 0%
40% 30% 5% 0%
10% 0% 0% 0%
20% 0% 0% 0%
10% 0% 0% 0%
25% 40% 15% 5%
50% 10% 1% 1%
55% 0% 0% 0%
20% 0% 0% 0%
0% 0% 0% 0%
0% 0% 0% 0%
40% 30% 7% 0%
15% 5% 0% 0%
10% 4% 0% 0%
30% 20% 2% 0%
10% 25% 30% 20%
28% 35% 10% 1%
50% 30% 3% 0%
34% 2% 0% 0%
18% 5% 0% 0%
0% 0% 0% 0%
60% 14% 5% 0%
10% 0% 0% 0%
0% 0% 0% 0%
20% 0% 0% 0%
20% 35% 10% 0%
70% 12% 0% 0%
60% 5% 0% 0%
50% 0% 0% 0%
0% 0% 0% 0%
0% 0% 0% 0%
20% 60% 10% 0%
10% 0% 0% 0%
5% 0% 0% 0%
70% 10% 0% 0%
0% 40% 40% 20%
40% 40% 10% 5%
40% 5% 5% 0%
30% 5% 0% 0%
0% 0% 0% 0%
0% 0% 0% 0%
20% 80% 0% 0%
10% 0% 0% 0%
60% 5% 0% 0%
10% 0% 0% 0%
30% 60% 5% 0%
35% 15% 0% 0%
35% 5% 0% 0%
50% 0% 0% 0%
5% 0% 0% 0%
0% 0% 0% 0%
owth (%)
3-3.9 4-4.9 5-5.9 >6+ Forecaster elegido
84 67 49
364 268 250
(14) (11) (13)
433 324 286 232
1,768 2,313 2,249 1,930
661 888 855 726
$ 1,107 $ 1,425 $ 1,394 $ 1,204
$ 2.87 $ 3.37 $ 3.23 $ 2.73
$ 2.86 $ 3.35 $ 3.21 $ 2.71
67 49
268 250
(11) (13)
324 286 232
2,313 2,249 1,930
888 855 726
$ 1,425 $ 1,394 $ 1,204
$ 3.37 $ 3.23 $ 2.73
$ 3.35 $ 3.21 $ 2.71
4.2% 18.4%
Fórmula para cálculo de EPS
Estimación de total revenues 2009 - Estimación costo de venta 2009 - Estimación Gasto Vta. Gral Adm. - Estima
Total acciones 2008
Media Desvest
#NAME? 122.1
Selling, general, Earnings before
and Credit card Depreciation and interest
Total revenues Cost of sales expense
administrative expenses amortization and income taxes
expenses
Cornish-Fisher (2.30)
VaR(1%) centrado 1,203.79
22830
22700
22960
90% 23,268.37
95% 23,286.34
99% 23,310.33
Media
0.004 0.004 0.004
0.004
Triang(22780.80666,2326
1.12487,23329.74176)
ba de @RISK xDelimiter
xPDelimiter1
Sólo para propósitos de evaluación
22830
22960
23090
23220
23350
Triang(22780.80666,2326
1.12487,23329.74176)
xDelimiter
xPDelimiter1
23350
Exhibit 1
PRICEMAX
Realized Retail Sales Growth and Realized GDP Growth 1993-2008
Coeficientes
Intercepción
Variable X 1
Observación
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Exhibit 3
PRICEMAX
Consolidated Statements of Operations 2005–08
(in millions of dollars, except per-share data)
$ 25,636
675
26,310
17,464
5,593
388
705
2,162
232
1,930
726
$ 1,204
$ 2.73
$ 2.71
441.0
444.6
Exhibit 5
PRICEMAX
Panelist 421’s Probabilities for GDP Growth in 2007
100
90
80
70
50
Panelist 421's Probabilities
for GDP Growth in 2007
40
30
20
10
0
-2 1) .1
)
0.
9
1.
9
2.
9
3.
9
4.
9
5.
9 +
< -1. -0 0- 1- 2- 3- 4- 5- >6
-( -(
-2 -1
GDP Growth (%)
wth in 2007
owth (%)
3-3.9 4-4.9 5-5.9 >6+
0 0 0 0
owth (%)
3-3.9 4-4.9 5-5.9 >6+
22 2 0 0
d GDP Growth in
421's Probabilities
Growth in 2007
+
>6
Exhibit 6
PRICEMAX
Six Panelists’ Forecast for GDP Growth 2000–09 and Realized GDP Growth 2000–08
2000 3.66% 0 0 0 0 0 0
2001 0.75% 0 0 0 100 0 0
2002 1.60% 0 0 0 0 100 0
2003 2.51% 0 0 0 0 0 100
2004 3.64% 0 0 0 0 0 0
2005 2.94% 0 0 0 0 0 100
2006 2.78% 0 0 0 0 0 100
2007 2.03% 0 0 0 0 0 100
2008 1.28% 0 0 0 0 100 0
owth (%)
3-3.9 4-4.9 5-5.9 >6+
7 8 9 10
100 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
100 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
owth (%)
3-3.9 4-4.9 5-5.9 >6+
30% 20% 0% 0%
5% 0% 0% 0%
5% 0% 0% 0%
30% 10% 0% 0%
15% 50% 20% 0%
40% 10% 0% 0%
40% 5% 0% 0%
22% 2% 0% 0%
8% 0% 0% 0%
0% 0% 0% 0%
40% 30% 5% 0%
10% 0% 0% 0%
20% 0% 0% 0%
10% 0% 0% 0%
25% 40% 15% 5%
50% 10% 1% 1%
55% 0% 0% 0%
20% 0% 0% 0%
0% 0% 0% 0%
0% 0% 0% 0%
40% 30% 7% 0%
15% 5% 0% 0%
10% 4% 0% 0%
30% 20% 2% 0%
10% 25% 30% 20%
28% 35% 10% 1%
50% 30% 3% 0%
34% 2% 0% 0%
18% 5% 0% 0%
0% 0% 0% 0%
60% 14% 5% 0%
10% 0% 0% 0%
0% 0% 0% 0%
20% 0% 0% 0%
20% 35% 10% 0%
70% 12% 0% 0%
60% 5% 0% 0%
50% 0% 0% 0%
0% 0% 0% 0%
0% 0% 0% 0%
20% 60% 10% 0%
10% 0% 0% 0%
5% 0% 0% 0%
70% 10% 0% 0%
0% 40% 40% 20%
40% 40% 10% 5%
40% 5% 5% 0%
30% 5% 0% 0%
0% 0% 0% 0%
0% 0% 0% 0%
20% 80% 0% 0%
10% 0% 0% 0%
60% 5% 0% 0%
10% 0% 0% 0%
30% 60% 5% 0%
35% 15% 0% 0%
35% 5% 0% 0%
50% 0% 0% 0%
5% 0% 0% 0%
0% 0% 0% 0%