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OCEAN FREIGHT
MARKET UPDATE
October 2017
1
Contents
MARKET OUTLOOK
Freight Rates and Volume Development
CAPACITY DEVELOPMENT
CARRIERS
The average operating earnings of the top carriers that published their
1H’17 results rebounded. Out of 13 carriers, 9 posted positive results, led
by CMA CGM with a 7.1% operating margin off a USD 10.17Bn
revenue. Global average operating margin sits at 1.1%.
Four carriers remain at loss, led by HMM, as seen last month with a
negative 9.5% margin.
Source: Alphaliner
CAGR 2’500
ECONOMIC 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F WORLD
(2017-2021)
OUTLOOK 1) CONTAINER 2’000
EURO 1.8% 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 1.8% 1.7% INDEX (WCI)2) 1’500
GDP GROWTH
BY REGION 1’000
MEA 2.6% 3.4% 3.7% 4.1% 4.0% 3.8%
500
AMER 2.1% 2.6% 2.5% 2.4% 2.4% 2.5%
0
ASPA 4.8% 4.6% 4.6% 4.5% 4.7% 4.6% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
15 16 17
SHANGHAI 1’200
DGF World 3.0% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 3.2% 3.1%
CONTAINERIZED 1’000
FREIGHT INDEX 800
SUPPLY VS 10.0 (SCFI)3) 600
DEMAND Demand Growth
400
GROWTH 4) 8.0 Supply Growth 200
0
6.0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
% Growth 15 16 17
4.0
BUNKER 800
2.0 PRICE 600
INDEX 5)
0.0 400
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F
200
Source: 1)real GDP, Global Insight, Copyright © IHS, Q2 2017 . All rights reserved; 2) Drewry Container Forecaster –
BIX 380
Forecast global supply-demand balance; 3) Shanghai Shipping Exchange, in USD/20ft container and USD/40ft container for 0
US routes, 15 routes from Shanghai, 4) Global Insight, Drewry, 5) Bunker Index, in USD/metric ton, Bunker Index MGO (BIX BIX MGO Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
MGO) is the Average Global Bunker Price for all marine gasoil (MGO) port prices published on the Bunker Index website,
15 16 17
Bunker Index 380 CST (BIX 380) is the Average Global Bunker Price for all 380 centistoke (cSt) port prices published on the
Bunker Index website
ASPA = - EURO = +
MENAT = - MENAT = =
SSA = = SSA = +
AMLA - + ASPA - =
AMNO ASPA
ASPA = = AMNO - -
MENAT = = EURO - -
SSA = + MENAT = -
OCEANIA = +
Strong Moderate No Moderate Strong
KEY ++ + = - --
Increase Increase Change Decline Decline
Source: DGF
Extensive blank sailing program starting in week 39 to cater for the slower Golden Week period. Rates decline on a short-term basis,
ASPA – EURO
however no movement seen on the long-term rates.
EURO – ASPA & MEA October rates are slightly softening due to missing overall export volumes.
Carriers put in 6 extra loaders to ECSA in September to capitalize on the strong pre-Golden Week loading. This caused the rates to
ASPA – AMLA nosedive from USD 3500/40’ to USD 1800/40’, valid until 14 th October 2018. We expect however a strong rate rebound on 15 th Oct GRI,
when China factories reopen, jostling for space.
All alliances have introduced void sailings in week 1 st half of Oct during Chinese holidays. Expect tight space situation to resume 2 nd half
ASPA – AMNO
of October
Declined in rates into EMED & Middle East, except for South Africa.
ASPA – MENAT South Africa rates have increased drastically over the months, and Carriers are still going strong for another GRI starting 15th Oct.
Expected tight vessel utilization after Golden Week.
Space is expected to be tight after the Golden Week due to the planned blank sailings as announced by the carrier on both the Intra-Asia
ASPA – ASPA
and IPBC services. Rates are expected to remain relatively stable.
Moderate capacity reduction in October from USEC (average 7000 TEUs less than in September)
AMNO – EURO
Moderate capacity increase in October from USWC (average 3000 TEUs more than in September)
Source: DGF
EU 2017 GDP growth should hit 2.2% vs 1.8% in 2016, slowing down in 2018 at 1.9, and in 2019 at 1.7%. Upsides may occur depending on
labor market performance, whereas downside risks lie with a stronger Euro and toxic Brext negotiations.
EURO
DE: although Q2 GDP growth only went by 2.5%, domestic demand increased strongly by 4.3%.
UK: Economy growth will slow in 2018, at +1.0% vs 1.5% this year, according to recent data.
CA: Leads the G7 growth in Q2, with a +4.5% GDP increase q/q
US: Q2 GDP revised up from 2.6 to 3.0%. Hurricanes will hurt near-term growth (damaged infrastructure, logistics constraints, but most
AMER
importantly energy and chemical sector disruptions), but reconstrution will boost GDP growth. Q3 Growth down from 3.1 to 2.1 %, but 1H 2018
growth set up from 2.8 to 3.1%.
JP: Expansion matches DE ‘s– although Q2 GDP growth is only hitting 2.5% (slowed down by net exports), domestic demand increased
strongly by 3.8%. Bad weather conditions will soften Q3 growth as it refrained consumer spendings. In the future, downside risks lie with the
ASPA appreciation of the yen due to North Korean tensions and US policy uncertainties.
CN: Broad slowdown of economic activities in July and August – it does not mark the start of a strong decline however. Government could
support the economic acitivity with demand-friendly measures if the slowdown became too strong.
EMERGING Rising commodity prices will help strenghten growth in emerging markets – it has already begun to translate into better export earnings.
MARKETS Moreover, a recent dollar weakness also represents a relief for local central banks.
The global PMI rose from 53.6 in July to 53.9. This is the highest point since April 2015. The best improvements come from order books and
DEMAND the employment trends. New business wins showed the largest rise for almost three years, and August saw one of the quickest increases in
DEVELOPMENT backlog of uncompleted orders of the past four years. Since output levels are up, employment prospects are too, especially in the developped
economies (both services and manufacturing). It stagnated in the emerging economies, still improving over the 2016 job market deterioration.
Source: Global Executive Summary, IHS Markit, Aug 2017. The Purchase Manager Index is an IHS proprietary metric that polls purchasing managers to understand if they are to order more or less in the future, hence giving a representative estimation
of the global business sentiment. Assessed monthly, a PMI at 50 is considered neutral, expanding above 50, and shows business shrinking below 50.
CAPACITY DEVELOPMENT
On the Intra-Asia and Africa-related routes, several services were upsized from 2’800 TEE to 4’200 TEU (Panamax) scale over the last 18 months. The upsized
ships are often chartered at lower rates than the smaller ships they have replaced. With the opening of the larger Panama locks in Jun’16, Panamax ships had
become obsolete and were struggling to find alternative employment.
Only 6 ex-Hanjin ships have been scrapped, while all others but one of the remaining ships were taken up by other carriers, SM Line being the most active buyer.
Each of the 3 alliances have revealed their blank sailing programs for Chinese Golden Week holidays (1-8 Oct) and the week after. Total capacity withdrawn on
the Asia-Europe route will only reach about 29-46% of the average weekly capacity deployed, with 2M taking out the most this year. In 2016 the removed capacity
was over 50% of the average weekly capacity on that route.
OCEAN Alliance increases its number of direct Far East-New York links to five as of 12 Oct ’17.
Hapag-Lloyd and MSC team up on new Med-ECSA trade with the launch of a weekly joint service in Oct’17. The new service will supersede the current Med-
ECSA service offered through a joint operation of MSC + Hamburg Süd with Hapag-Lloyd taking slots. The restructuring was necessary after the European
Commission had ruled that Hamburg Süd must terminate its arrangement with MSC on the trade prior to the absorption of Hamburg Süd by Maersk Line in Q4.
MSC has launched a newbuilding program for 11 Megamax units of 22’000 TEU. The ships will be delivered from late 2019 to Mar 2020. MSC’s current 20
Megamax units are financed by CN, SG & US interests under leasing or bare-boat terms, with MSC managing the ships. It is probable that the 11 ships of the new
program will be financed similarly.
Based on projections from Alphaliner the idle container ship fleet will only be eliminated in Q3 ’19. However, the announcement of CMA CGM and MSC of new
orders of 20 vessels of 22’000 TEU with deliveries starting from H2 ’19 could potentially trigger a wave of new orders thus further extending the supply overhang.
Source: Alphaliner, carriers
CARRIERS
Maersk’s parent company A.P. Møller-Maersk announced the sale of Maersk Tankers to its subsidiary APMH Invest, the investment arm of the AP Møller
Foundation, for $1.17bn. The transaction follows Maersk Oil’s sale to Total S.A. in August.
The group still plans to sell Maersk Drilling and Maersk Supply Service by 2018, as a part of the company’s divestment from energy. According to analysts, Maersk
could sell these last two business units for up to $6bn.
FMC has cleared the establishment of THE Alliance’s contingency fund. The fund is meant to help member carriers manage and recover from insolvency or
financial distress of a participating carrier by ensuring that the affected carrier could:
• Continue to make port calls, pay costs/losses/liabilities as a result of arrested vessels
• Advance funds related to carriage, handling, storage, delivery of containers
• Pay claims which could lead to arrest or detention of a vessel
• Reimburse the non-affected alliance members for costs, losses, liabilities incurred.
Out of the total amount of USD 50m each member will initially contribute USD 1m into the fund and a further USD 9m in additional funds or through a letter of credit.
Brazil’s anti-trust regulator has approved the acquisition of Hamburg Süd by Maersk Line without restrictions. Maersk had already agreed on 13 Jun ’17 to
sell its Brazilian coastal shipping unit Mercosul Line to CMA CGM in order to obtain approval from Brazilian authorities for the Hamburg Süd acquisition.
• The Z-score is a statistical analysis to predict a company’s probability of failure in the next 2 years, using data from the company’s financial statement.
• A Z-score ≥ 2.99 company is “safe”.
• A Z-score between 1.8 and 2.99 exercise caution (“grey zone”).
• A Z-score ≤ 1.8 higher risk of the company going bankrupt (“distress zone”). All indications based on these financial figures only.
Source: Drewry Sea & Air Shipper Insight, June 2017; 1) parent of Cosco Container Lines; Z-score is calculated as follows: T1 = (Current Assets - Current Liabilities) / Total Assets, T2 = Retained Earnings / Total
Assets, T3 = Annualized EBIT / Total Assets, T4 = Book Value of Equity / Total Liabilities, T5 = Annualized Sales / Total Assets, Z-score bankruptcy rating = 1.2*T1 + 1.4*T2 + 3.3*T3 + 0.6*T4 + 1.0*T5
EURO – AMLA Increases to ECSA due to drop of capacity. Another increase announced for November. WCSA still stable.
No change in the current market situation. Space is still tight from USEC & USGC Ports but only 1 or 2 weeks out this months. It appears that
AMNO – MENAT
current rates will stay the same until end of October.
FCL market is facing extreme space issues from the SAEC. Rates have doubled and tripled in some cases on certain trade lanes.
AMLA Exports Situation could last through December 2017. Bookings should be placed 2-4 weeks out to ensure space.
Space ex WCSA tight to the US and along the WCS.
Source: DGF
Source: DGF
N O R T H N O R T H
A M E R I C A A M E R I C A
I n c l . 3.5 mTEU +1.2% 7.6 mTEU +0.7% I n c l .
M E X I C O F A R E A S T M E X I C O
Highest scrapping level ever Average age Idling remains high 3.0% Returning Net capacity growth remains low
capacity
[TTEU] well
absorbed Net capacity growth 2017E
27 28 28 1,480 1,359 1,324 7.7%
24 23 23 23 by
19 20 demand
+239%
602 -1.8%
809 779
(May 2017)
[TTEU] 654 595 2.7%
444 381 356
351 332 -3.3%
193 205 228
131 75
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Apr 17 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Scheduled Post-ponements Scrapping Net capacity
YTD 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 capacity growth growth
+33%
2.2 1.7
2.0 15,300 TEU 1.5
1.8 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3
1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2
1.2 1.1 0.9
0.6 0.4
0.1 0.2
0.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Apr17 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E
YTD
Source: Alphaliner (May 2017), carrier views
M E R G E R S A N D A Q U I S I T I O N S
United Hyundai
China OOCL CMA Hapag Hamburg Maersk Yang Hanjin
Cosco Evergreen APL Arab Merchant MSC K Line MOL NYK
Shipping TBC CGM Lloyd Süd Line Ming Shipping
Shipping Marine
HYUNDAI
EVER OCEAN NETWORK YANG
CHINA COSCO SHIPPING CMA CGM HAPAG-LLOYD/UASC MERCHANT MAERSK LINE MSC Bankrupt
GREEN MARINE EXPRESS (ONE) MING
A L L I A N C E S
F O R M E R A L L I A N C E S P R E S E N T A L L I A N C E S
Source: Carriers