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Introduction
In the earlier lectures we introduced graphical and numerical descriptive methods. Although
the methods are useful on their own, we are particularly interested in developing statistical
inference. As we pointed out in module 1, statistical inference is the process by which we
acquire information about populations from samples. A critical component of inference is
probability because it provides the link between the population and the sample. .
Our primary objective in this and the following two chapters is to develop the probability-
based tools that are at the basis of statistical inference. However, probability can also play a
critical role in decision making, a subject we explore in module 6.
4.1 Objective
1. To examine the use of probability theory in decision making
2. To explain the different ways probability arise
3. To develop rules for calculating different kinds of probabilities
1.
2. To use probabilities to take new information into account: the definition and
use of Bayes’ theorem
4.2.2 Introduction
Probability is a numerical measure of the likelihood that an event will occur. Thus,
probabilities can be used as measure of the degree of uncertainty associated with the
four events previously listed. If probabilities are available, we can determine the
likelihood of each event occurring.
Probability values are always assigned on a scale from 0 to 1. A probability near zero
indicates an event is unlikely to occur; a probability near 1 indicates an event is
almost certain to occur. Other probabilities between 0 and 1 represent degrees of
likelihood that an event will occur. For example, if we consider the event “rain
tomorrow,” we understand that when the weather report indicates “a near-zero
probability of rain,” it means almost no chance of rain. However, if a .90 probability
of rain is reported, we know that rain is likely to occur. A .50 probability indicates
that rain is just as likely to occur as not. Figure 4.1 depicts the view of probability as a
numerical measure of the likelihood of an event occurring.
Random Experiment
A random experiment is an action or process that leads to one of several
possible outcomes.
1 2 3 4 5
0 – 50 50 -60 60 – 70 70 – 80 80-100
If these intervals include the lower and upper limits, the outcomes are not
mutually exclusive because two outcomes can occur for any student. For example, if
a student receives a mark of 70, both the third and fourth outcomes occur.
It should be noted that we could produce more than one list of exhaustive and
mutually exclusive outcomes. For example, here is another list of outcomes for
illustration 3:
A list of exhaustive and mutually exclusive outcomes is called a sample space and is
denoted by S. The outcomes are denoted by, O1, O2, . . . , Ok.
Sample Space
A Sample space of a random experiment is a list of all possible outcomes of the
experiment. The outcome must be exhaustive and mutually exclusive.
Using set notation, we represent the sample space and its outcomes as
Once a sample space has been prepared, we begin the task of assigning probabilities
to the outcomes. There are three ways to assign probability to outcomes. However it
is done, there are two rules governing probabilities, as stated in the next box.
Requirement of Probabilities
Given a sample space S = { O1, O2, . . . , Ok, the probability assigned to the
outcomes must satisfy two requirements:
1. The probability of any outcome must lie between 0 and 1. That is ,
2. The sum of the probabilities of all the outcomes in a sample space must
be 1. That is
When it is not reasonable to use the classical approach and there is no history of
the outcomes, we have no alternative but to employ the subjective approach. In
the subjective approach, we define probability as the degree of belief that we hold
in the occurrence of an event. An excellent example is derived from the field of
investment. An investor would like to know the probability that a particular stock
will increase in value. Using the subjective approach, the investor would analyze
a number of factors associated with the stock and the stock market in general and,
using his or her judgment, assign a probability to the outcomes of interest.
Event
An event is a collection or set of one or more simple events in a sample space.
In illustration 2 we can define the event, achieve a grade of A, as the set of numbers
that lie between 80 and 100, inclusive. Using set notation, we have
Similarly
Probability of an Event
The probability of an event is the sum of the probabilities of the simple events
that constitute the event.
P(A) = .20
P(B) = .30
P(C) = .25
P(D) = .15
P(F) = .10
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
If the die is balanced, the probability of each simple event is 1/6. In most parlor
games and casinos, players toss two dice. To determine playing and wagering
strategies, players need to compute the probabilities of various totals of two dice.
For example, the probability of tossing a total of 3 with two dice is 2/36. This
probability was derived by creating combinations of the simple events. There are
several different types of combinations. One of the most important types is the
intersection if two events.
Intersection
A and B
For example, one way to toss a 3 with two dice is to toss a 1 on the first die and a
2 on the second die, which is the intersection of two simple events. Incidentally,
to compute the probability of a total of 3, we need to combine this intersection
with another intersection, namely, a 2 on the first die and a 1 on the second die.
This type of combination is called a union of two events, and it will be described
later in this section. Here is another illustration.
Table 6.1 tells us that the joint probability that a mutual fund outperforms the market and
that its manager graduated from a top-20 MBA program is .11. That is, 11 % of all mutual
funds outperform the market and their managers graduated from a top-20 MBA program.
The other three joint probabilities are defined similarly. That is,
The probability that a mutual fund outperforms the market and its manager did not
graduate from a top-20 MBA program is .06.
The probability that a mutual fund does not outperform the market and its
manager graduated from a top-20 MBA program is .29.
The probability that a mutual fund does not outperform the market and its
manager did not graduate from a top-20 MBA program is .54.
To help make our task easier, we'll use notation to represent the events. Let
Thus,
P (A1 and B1) = .11
Notice that both intersections state that the manager graduated from a top-20 MBA program
(represented by A1)' Thus, when randomly selecting mutual funds, the probability that its
manager graduated from a top-20 MBA program is .40. Expressed as relative frequency, 40% of
all mutual fund managers graduated from a top-20 MBA Program.
Adding across the second row:
These marginal probabilities tell us that 17% of all mutual funds outperform the market and that
83% of mutual funds do not outperform the market.
We frequently need to know how two events are related. In particular, we would like to know the
probability of one event given the occurrence of another related event. For example, we would
certainly like to know the probability that a fund managed by a graduate of a top-20 MBA
program will outperform the market. Such a probability will allow us to make an informed
decision about where to invest our money. This probability is called a conditional probability
because we want to know the probability that a fund will outperform the market given the
condition that the manager graduated from a top-20 MBA program. The conditional probability
that we seek is represented by
Where the “l” represents the word given. Here is how we compute this conditional probability.
The marginal probability that a manager graduated from a top-20 MBA program is .40, which is
made up of two joint probabilities. They are the probability that the mutual fund outperforms the
market and the manager graduated from a top-20 MBA program [P (A1 and B1)] and the
probability that the fund does not outperform the market and the manager graduated from a top-
20 MBA program [P (A1 and B2)] Their joint probabilities are .11 and .29, respectively. We can
interpret these numbers in the following way. On average, for every 100 mutual funds, 40 will be
managed by a graduate of a top-20 MBA program Of these 40 managers, on average, 11 of them
will manage a mutual fund that will outperform the market. Thus, the conditional probability is
11/40 = .275. Notice that this ratio is the same as the ratio of the joint probability to the marginal
probability .11/.40. All conditional probabilities can be computed this way.
Conditional Probability
The probability of event A given event B is
Solution
We wish to find a conditional probability. The condition is that the fund did not outperform
the market (event B1), and the event whose probability we seek is that the fund is managed
by a graduate of a top-20 MBA program (event A1). Thus, we want to compute the
following probability:
Thus 34.94% of all mutual funds that do not outperform the market are managed by top-20
MBA program graduates.
The calculation of conditional probabilities raises the question of whether the two events, the
fund outperformed the market and the manager graduated from a top-20 MBA program, are
related, a subject we tackle next.
4.2.4.4 Independence
One of the objectives of calculating conditional probability is to determine whether two events
are related. In particular, we would like to know whether they are independent.
Independent Events
Two events A and B are said to be independent if
or
Put another way, two events are independent if the probability of one event is not affected by the
occurrence of the other event.
Determine whether the event that the manager graduated from a top-20 MBA program and the
event that the fund outperforms the market are independent events.
Solution
We wish to determine whether A1 and B1 are independent. To do so, we must calculate the
probability of A1 given B1.That is,
The marginal probability that a manager graduated from a top-20 MBA program is
Since the two probabilities are not equal, we conclude that the two events are dependent.
Incidentally, we could have made the decision by calculating and
observing that it is not equal to
Note that there are three other combinations of events in this problem. They are ,
and [ignoring mutually exclusive combinations and
, which are dependent]. In each combination the two events are dependent. In
this type of problem where there are only four combinations, if one combination is dependent,
all four will be dependent. Similarly, if one combination is independent, all four will be
independent. This rule does not apply to any other situation.
4.2.4.5 Union
A or B
Determine the probability that a randomly selected fund outperforms the market or the manager
graduated from a top-20 MBA program.
Solution
The union consists of three events. That is, the union occurs whenever any of the
following joint events occurs:
1. Fund outperforms the market and the manager graduated from a top-20 MBA program.
2. Fund outperforms the market and the manager did not graduate from a top-20 MBA
program.
3. Fund does not outperform the market and the manager graduated from a top-20 MBA
program
Thus, the probability of the union, the fund outperforms the market or the manager graduated
from a top-20 MBA program, is the sum of the three probabilities. That is,
Notice that there is another way to produce this probability. Of the four probabilities in Table
4.1, the only one representing an event that is not part of the union is the probability of the event
the fund does not outperform the market and the manager did not graduate from a top-20 MBA
program. That probability is
which is the probability that the union does not occur. Thus, the probability of the union is
Thus, we determined that 46% of mutual funds either outperform the market or are managed by
a top-20 MBA program graduate or both.
The complement of event A is the event that occurs when event A does not occur. The
complement of event A is denoted by AC. The complement rule defined here derives from
the fact that the probability of an event and the probability of the event's complement
must sum to 1.
Complement Rule
The multiplication rule is used to calculate the joint probability of two events. It is
based on the formula for conditional probability supplied in the previous section. That is,
from the following formula
A graduate statistics course has seven male and three female students. The professor wants
to select two students at random to help her conduct a research project. What is the
probability that the two students chosen are female?
Solution
Let A represent the event that the first student chosen is female and B represent the event
that the second student chosen is also female. We want the joint probability P(A and B).
Consequently, we apply the multiplication rule:
Because there are three female students in a class of ten, the probability that the first student
chosen is female is
After the first student is chosen, there are only nine students left. Given that the first student
chosen was female, there are only two female students left. It follows that
Thus the joint probability is
Refer to Example 4.5. The professor who teaches the course is suffering from the flu and
will be unavailable for two classes. The professor's replacement will teach the next two
classes. His style is to select one student at random and pick on him or her to answer
questions during that class. What is the probability that the two students chosen are female?
Solution
The form of the question is the same as in Example 4.5; we wish to compute the probability
of choosing two female students. However, the experiment is slightly different. It is now
possible to choose the same student in each of the two classes the replacement teaches.
Thus A and B are independent events, and we apply the multiplication rule for independent
events:
The probability of choosing a female student in each of the two classes is the same. That is,
Hence,
Addition Rule
B1 B2 Totals
A1 P(A1 and B1) = .11 P(A1 and B2) = .29 P(A1) = .40
A2 P(A2 and B1) = .06 P(A2 and B2) = .54 P(A2) = .60
Totals P(B1) = .17 P(B2) = .83
This table summarizes how the marginal probabilities were computed. For example, the marginal
probability of A1 and the marginal probability of B1, were calculated as
Notice that we added the joint probability of (which is .11) twice. To correct the
double counting, we subtract the joint probability from the sum of the probabilities of
. Thus,
In a large city, two newspapers are published, the Sun and the Post. The circulation departments
report that 22% of the city's households have a subscription to the Sun and 35% subscribe to the
Post. A survey reveals that 6% of all households subscribe to both newspapers. What
proportion of the city's households subscribe to either newspaper?
Solution
We can express this question as; What is the probability of selecting a household at random that
subscribes to the Sun, the Post, or both? Another way of asking the question is, What is the
probability that a randomly selected household subscribes to at least one of the newspapers? It
is now clear that we seek the probability of the union, and we must apply the addition rule. Let
A = the household subscribes to the Sun and B = the household subscribes to the Post. We
perform the following calculation:
The probability that a randomly selected household subscribes to either newspaper is .51.
Expressed as relative frequency, 51% of the city's households subscribe to either newspaper.
In Example 4.5 we wanted to find the probability of choosing two female students, where the
two choices had to be different. The tree diagram in Figure 4.2 describes this experiment. Notice
that the first two branches represent the two possibilities, female or male students, on the first
choice. The second set of branches represents the two possibilities on the second choice. The
probabilities of female or male student chosen first are 3/10 and 7/10, respectively. The
probabilities for the second set of branches are conditional probabilities based on the choice of
the first student selected.
We calculate the joint probabilities by multiplying the probabilities on the linked branches. Thus,
the probability of choosing two female students is P(F and F) = (3/10)(2/9) = 6/90. The
remaining joint probabilities are computed similarly.
Figure 4.2 Probability Tree for Example 4.5
In Example 4.6, the experiment was similar to that of Example 4.5. However, the student
selected on the first choice was returned to the pool of students and was eligible to be chosen
again. Thus, the probabilities on the second set of branches remain the same as the probabilities
on the first set, and the probability tree is drawn with these changes, as shown in Figure 4.3.
The advantage of a probability tree on this type of problem is that it restrains its users from
making the wrong calculation. Once the tree is drawn and the probabilities of the branches
inserted, virtually the only allowable calculation is the multiplication of the probabilities of
linked branches. An easy check on those calculations is available. The joint probabilities at the
ends of the branches must sum to 1, because all possible events are listed. In both figures notice
that the joint probabilities do indeed sum to l.
The special form of the addition rule for mutually exclusive events can be applied to the joint
probabilities. In both probability trees, we can compute the probability that one student chosen is
female and one is male simply by adding the joint probabilities. For the tree in Example 4.5 we,
have
Students who graduate from law schools must still pass a bar exam before becoming lawyers.
Suppose that in a particular jurisdiction the pass rate for first-time test takers is 72%. Candidates
who fail the first exam may take it again several months later. Of those who fail their first test,
88% pass their second attempt. Find the probability that a randomly selected Law school
graduate becomes a lawyer. Assume that candidates cannot take the exam more than twice.
Solution
The probability tree in Figure 4.4 is employed to describe the experiment. Note that we use the
complement rule to determine the probability of failing each exam.
We apply the multiplication rule to calculate P(Fail and Pass), which we find to be .2464. We
then apply the addition rule for mutually exclusive events to find the probability of passing the
first or second exam:
P(Pass [on first exam]) + P(Fail [on first exam] and Pass [on second exam]) = .72 + .2464 =
.9664
Thus, 96.64% of applicants become lawyers by passing the first or second exam.
Conditional probability is often used to gauge the relationship between two events, in
many of the examples and exercises you've already encountered, conditional probability
measures the probability that an event occurs given that a possible cause of the event has
occurred. In Example 4.2 we calculated the probability that a mutual fund outperforms
the market (the effect) given that the fund manager graduated from a top-20 MBA
program (the possible cause). There are situations, however, where we witness a
particular event and we need to compute the probability of one of its possible causes.
Let A1 denote the event that a part is from supplier 1, A2 denote the event that a part is
from supplier 2 and let B denote the event that a part is bad.
A tabular approach is helpful in conducting the Bayes’ theorem calculations. Such an
approach is shown in Table 4.3. The computations shown there are done in the following
steps.
Step 2: In column 4, compute the joint probabilities for each event and
the new information B buy using the multiplication law. These joint
probabilities are found by multiplying the prior probabilities in the column
2 by the corresponding conditional probabilities in column 3; that is,
.
Step 3: Sum the joint probabilities in column 4. The sum is the probability of the
new information, P(B). Thus we see in Table 4.3 that there is .0130
probability that the part came from supplier 1 and is bad and a .0175
probability that the part came from supplier 2 and is bad. Because these
are the only two ways in which a bad part can be obtained, the sum .0130
+ .0175 shows an overall probability of .0305 of finding a bad part from
the combined shipments of the two suppliers.
Step 3: In column 5, compute the posterior probabilities using the basic
relationship of conditional probability
Table 4.3 Tabular Approach to Bayes’ Theorem Calculations For the Two-Supplier
Problem
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
Prior Conditional Joint Posterior
Events Probabilities Probabilities Probabilities Probabilities
Ai P(Ai)
A1 .65 .02 .0130 .0130/.0305 = .4262
A2 .35 .05 .0175 .0175/.0305 = .5738
1.00 P(B) = .0305 1.0000
Notes:
1. Bayes’ theorem is used extensively in decision analysis. The prior probabilities are
often subjective estimates provided by a decision maker. Sample information is
obtained and posterior probabilities are computed for use in choosing the best
decision.
2. An event and its complement are mutually exclusive, and their union is the entire
sample space. Thus, Bayes’ theorem is always applicable for computing posterior
probabilities of an event and its compliment.
Solution:
We need to revise the prior probability that this return contains significant fraud. The tree
shown in Figure 4.5 details the calculation.
= .0140/.1850 = .0757
Assume that a man in each of the age categories undergoes a PSA test with a positive result.
Calculate the probability that each man actually has prostate cancer and the probability that he
does not. Perform a cost-benefit analysis to determine the cost per cancer detected.
Solution
Prior
P(C) = .010
Likelihood Probabilities
False negative :
True positive :
False positive :
True negative :
The tree allows you to determine the probability of obtaining a positive test result.
It is
P(PT) = P(C and PT) + P(CC and PT) = .0070 + .1337 = .1407
We can now compute the probability that the man has prostate cancer given a positive test
result:
We can repeat the process for the other age categories. Here are the results.
The following table lists the proportion of each age category wherein the PSA test is positive
[P(PT)].
If we assume a cost of $1,000 per biopsy, the cost per cancer detected is $20,100 for 40-50,
$9,570 for 50-60, $5,000 for 60-70, and $3,250 for over 70.
Terminology
We will illustrate the terms using the probabilities calculated for the category 40-50.
The false-negative rate is .300. Its complement is the likelihood probability , called
the sensitivity, which is equal to 1 - .300 = .700. Among men with prostate cancer, this is the
proportion of men who will get' a positive test result.
The complement of the false-positive rate (.l35) is , which is called the specificity.
This likelihood probability is 1 - .l35 = .865.
The-posterior probability that someone has prostate cancer given a positive test result
is called the positive predictive value. Using Bayes' Law, we can compute
the other three posterior probabilities.
The probability that the patient does not have prostate cancer given a positive test result is
The probability that the patient has prostate cancer given a negative test result is
The probability that the patient does not have prostate cancer given a negative test result is
If you review the computations made previously, you'll realize that the prior probabilities are as
important as the probabilities associated with the test results (the likelihood probabilities) in
determining the posterior probabilities. The following table shows the prior probabilities and the
revised probabilities.
As you can see, if the prior probability is low then unless the screening test is quite accurate, the
revised probability will still be quite low.
4.2.13 Summary
In lecture 6, 7 and 8 we introduced basic probability concepts and illustrated how
probability analysis can be used to provide helpful information for decision
making. The first step in assigning probability is to create an exhaustive and
mutually exclusive list of outcomes. The second step is to use the classical,
relative frequency, or subjective approach and assign probability to the outcomes.
There are variety of methods available to compute the probability of other events.
These methods include probability rules and trees.
An important application to these rules in Bayes’ Law, which allows us to
compute conditional Probabilities from other forms of probability.
In 1990-1991, the demand for photo films was 22.50 million rolls. In 2000-2001,
this demand increased to 85.50 million rolls. The demand for photo films is
estimated to touch 205.40 million rolls by 2014-2015. Amateurs contribute
towards 52% whereas professionals account for 48% of the total sales in the photo
film market in India (see Table 4.5)
Table 4.4 Past and Forecasted Future Demand for Photo Films
Year Demand (Million rolls)
1990-1991 22.50
1991-1992 25.85
1992-1993 29.70
1993-1994 34.20
1994-1995 43.30
1995-1996 52.80
1996-1997 60.00
1997-1998 65.10
1998-1999 71.00
1999-2000 77.70
2000-2001 85.50
2001-2002 90.00
2002-2003 95.00
2003-2004 102.60
2004-2005 110.50
2005-2006 118.60
2006-2007 127.00
2007-2008 135.65
2008-2009 144.50
2009-2010 153.50
2014-2015 205.40
Konica is also an important player in the market. Konica Minolta Photo Imaging Inc. ceased its
colour film and paper pr operations in March 2007 and its camera manufacturing business in
2006. Agfa-Garvet group also has a considerable presence in market (see Table 4.6).
The growing demand for photo films in India has expanded Indian market. The existing three
major players (see Table 4.6) also taking innovative steps by using new technology to in, their
market shares.
Fuji 44
Kodak 29
Konica 22
Agfa 5
1. A customer who purchased a photo film is selected at What is the probability that
2. A customer who purchased a photo film is randomly se What is the probability that the
customer has purchased film of:
(a) Brand Fuji and is a professional?
(b) Brand Fuji and is an amateur/domestic?
(c) Brand Kodak and is a professional?
(d) Brand Kodak and is an amateur/domestic?
(e) Brand Konica and is a professional?
(f) Brand Konica and is an amateur/domestic?
(g) Brand Agfa and is a professional?
(h) Brand Agfa and is an amateur/domestic?
3. Suppose a small retail store has a stock of 70 Fuji films, 50 Kodak films, 30 Konica films,
and 10 Agfa films. These films are kept together in a box so that each film has an equal
opportunity of being selected in a draw. A customer purchases three films. The store
owner selects three films at random from the box. What is the probability that
(a) all the three films are Fuji?
(b) all the three films are Konika?
(c) one film is Kodak and two films are Agfa?
(d) one film is Fuji, one film is Konika, and one film is Agfa?