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This paper presents the seismic hazard assessment and seismic zoning of the United Arab
Emirates (UAE) and its surroundings based on the probabilistic approach. The area
that has been studied lies between 50◦ E–60◦ E and 20◦ N–30◦ N and spans several Gulf
countries. First, the tectonics of the area and its surroundings is reviewed. An updated
catalogue, containing both historical and instrumental events is used. Seismic source
regions are modelled and relationships between earthquake magnitude and earthquake
frequency is established. A modified attenuation relation for Zagros region is adopted.
Seismic hazard assessment is then carried out for 20 km interval grid points. Seismic
hazard maps of the studied area based on probable Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA)
for 10% probability of exceedance for time-spans of 50, 100 and 200 years are shown.
A seismic zone map is also shown for a 475-year return period. Although the results of
the seismic hazard assessment indicated that UAE has moderate to low seismic hazard
levels, nevertheless high seismic activities in the northern part of UAE warrant attention.
The northern Emirates region is the most seismically active part of UAE. The PGA on
bedrock in this region ranges between 0.22 g for a return period of 475 years to 0.38 g
for a return period of 1900 years. This magnitude of PGA, together with amplification
from local site effect, can cause structural damage to key structures and lifeline systems.
1. Introduction
This study is intended to provide design engineers and planners with information
about earthquake prone areas and seismic hazard and zoning maps for United Arab
Emirates (UAE) and its surroundings. Such maps will help: (1) in selecting sites
for large and critical structures that should be designed with a balance between
cost, strength and serviceability; (2) in determining the design earthquake to be
taken into consideration when designing such critical structures; and (3) in plan-
ning for land use for urban and regional development of the area to evaluate the
817
October 6, 2004 17:23 WSPC/124-JEE 00177
rapidly increasing number of high rise buildings, bridges and offshore and onshore
oil installation [Abdalla et al., 2001, Al-Homoud et al., 1994].
The hazard zoning maps developed in this study represent statistical and av-
erage behaviour of the regions considered, which are based mainly on historical
and instrumental data available on seismic events on the studied regions. Since no
comprehensive geologic and tectonic studies were made for all regions to arrive to
such results, caution must be observed in adopting the results. However, they are
a good starting point for further studies.
In general, the need for seismic hazard zonation and seismic risk assessment for
regions of high and moderate seismic activities has become an important factor. The
design and construction of structures in such regions require the knowledge of the
peak ground acceleration, i.e. future probable seismic loading that the structure
is likely to be exposed to during its lifetime. Such information is the product of
seismic hazard analysis of a region.
(i) Jordan and surrounding countries: Al-Homoud et al. [1994], Al-Homoud and
Husein [1995], Husein et al. [1995a] and Al-Homoud and Amrat [1998].
(ii) Lebanon: Harajli et al. [1995].
(iii) Sudan and its vicinity: Abdalla et al. [1997] and Abdalla et al. [2001].
(iv) Saudi Arabia: Al-Haddad et al. [1994].
(v) Iran: Tavakoli and Ghafory-Ashtiany [1999].
(vi) Syria: Husein et al. [1995b].
by simulating the attenuated effect of the seismic hazard activity in the Zagros
province of Iran [Grunthal et al., 1999]. This extrapolation resulted in hazard levels
that reach almost 0.5 g at the northern most part of the UAE and that are greater
than 0.2 g in most of the country. These mapped values can be confidently rejected
as having a very weak scientific basis and being grossly over-conservative.
A more reliable study is the seismic hazard assessment for the Kingdom of
Saudi Arabia carried out by Al-Haddad et al. [1994]. Their study actually considers
seismic hazard throughout the Arabian Peninsula. The seismic source zones defined
by Al-Haddad et al. [1994] that lie within Saudi Arabia are mainly on the western
side and along the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aqaba. Recently, Abdalla et al. [2004]
started the effort to develop seismic hazard for the eastern Arabian region. Prior to
that there was no seismic source zones defined in eastern Saudi Arabia or in Oman
and the UAE, all of which are considered to be devoid of appreciable earthquake
activity. The only source of earthquake activity identified by Al-Haddad et al. [1994]
that could significantly affect hazard levels in the UAE is their Source Zone 11 in
southern Iran, for which a maximum magnitude of 7.5 is assigned. The shortest
distance between the boundaries of this source zone and Dubai for example is of
the order of 125 km.
Al-Haddad et al. [1994] produced a map of iso-accelerations with a 10% proba-
bility of exceedance in 50 years, which is equivalent to a return period of 475 years.
This map shows that the only areas where significant seismic hazard is identified
are a small area in north central Saudi Arabia, the coastal areas along the Red Sea
and the Iranian coast of the Arabian Gulf. The hazard level in Dubai and Sharjah,
according to this study, is significantly below 0.05 g. The attenuation relationship
used by Al-Haddad et al. [1994] is the one developed for Western USA. Such at-
tenuation relationship may not be appropriate for the region under consideration.
However, there is always room for improvement to the seismic hazard map when
more and reliable data becomes available and more elaborate study takes place.
It can also be appreciated that Al-Haddad et al. [1994] did not attempt to define
any source zones in the northeastern part of the Arabian Peninsula, since there
is no clearly defined tectonic structure in that area and no significant earthquake
activity. It would be very difficult to define a seismic source to capture the very
limited earthquake in that area.
Reference is made here also to the most recent seismic hazard study for Iran
[Tavakoli and Gafory-Ashtiany, 1999; GSHAP, 1998]. It is clear from this study that
the largest earthquakes and most intense activity in the Zagros are concentrated
along or close to the line of the main thrust fault. The activity becomes more diffuse
to the southwest through the Zagros folded belt.
The geologic feature of UAE follows that of the Arabian Platform. The rocks in
the Arabian Platform accumulated on stable marine-to-fluviatile shelf. Uplift and
collapse of arches and basins, movements on fault blocks, and migration of shoreline
back and forward across this shelf resulted in the interactions and migrations of
sandstones, siltstones, carbonates and salt basin that characterize the Phanerozoic
of this region [SGS, 2002; Bou-Rabee and VanMarche, 2001].
Tectonically, UAE is situated in the southeastern part of the Arabian plate. The
Arabian plate is one of the youngest plates that make up the surface of the earth.
The plate comprises of a crystalline basement of Precambrian continental crust
about 40–50 km thick, an overlaying basement of sequence of younger Phanerozoic
sedimentary rocks that range in thickness from zero to 10 km, in addition to basalt
and oceanic basin [SGS, 2002]. The separation and splitting of the Arabian Plate
from the African Plate along the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden axes followed by the
drift of the Arabian Plate to the north and northeast, lead ultimately to a collision
with the Eurasian plate that resulted in the formation of the Zagros fold-belt and
northwestern
thrust-belt.Indian
ZagrosOcean [Berberian
fold belt 81, Adams
is the major andearthquakes
source of Barazangi in
84,the
Nowroozi 87]. The
eastern border
western boundary of the Arabian
of the Arabian plate [SGS, 2002]. Plate is the Red Sea Rift and Sheba Ridge systems. The
seismicity
As shown in Fig. 1, there are several major fault systems that surround the 1,
of few of these directly affects the seismicity of UAE. As indicate in Figure
Zagros Fold and Thrust Belt and Makran Subduction Zone are the only two fault systems that
Arabian Plate. The northwest boundary of the Arabian Plate is the left-lateral
have direct effect on the seismicity of UAE. An overview of the characteristics, geometry,
tectonic positions and seismic activity of these two fault systems will be presented.
Eurasian
Turkish Plate
Plate
Zagros
Fold Belt
Dead Sea
Fault
Makran
Subduction
Arabian
African Plate
Plate
Owen Fracture Zone
Red Sea
Fault
Indian
Plate
Dead Sea Fault Zone. The southeast boundary of the Arabian Plate is the Owen
Fracture Zone (OFZ) in the northwestern Indian Ocean [Berberian, 1981; Adams
and Barazangi, 1984; Nowroozi, 1987]. The western boundary of the Arabian Plate
is the Red Sea Rift and Sheba Ridge systems. The seismicity of few of these directly
affects the seismicity of UAE. As indicate in Fig. 1, Zagros Fold and Thrust Belt
and Makran Subduction Zone are the only two fault systems that have direct effect
on the seismicity of UAE. An overview of the characteristics, geometry, tectonic
positions and seismic activity of these two fault systems will be presented.
Byrne et al. [1992] identify a very distinct difference between the western and
eastern parts of the Makran, with no evidence for large earthquakes in the western
portion during the instrumental or historical periods. The one possible exception
to this is an event reported by Ambraseys and Melville [1982] on 18 February
1483, for which they estimated a magnitude of Ms 7.7. However, Ambraseys and
Melville [1982] classify the source parameters of this earthquake as corresponding
to those with “a very approximate location of events that were probably large
but for which we have insufficient details”. Therefore the report of the 1483 event
does not seriously undermine the argument of Byrne et al. [1992] for much lower
activity in the western Makran. Since the eastern Makran, where great earthquakes
can happen, is so remote from the UAE, this is very unlikely to be the source of
appreciable seismic hazard.
30.00
29.00
28.00
27.00
Bahrain Iran
26.00
Arabian/Persian Gulf
Qatar
25.00
Gulf of Oman
24.00
2 1 .0 0
2 0 .0 0
5 0 .0 0 5 1 .0 0 5 2 .0 0 5 3 .0 0 5 4 .0 0 5 5 .0 0 5 6 .0 0 5 7 .0 0 5 8 .0 0 5 9 .0 0 6 0 .0 0
Fig. 2. Seismicity of UAE and its surroundings for 6.7 = M = 4.0 (instrumental period 1964–
2002) and M = 5 (historical period 1008–1964).
October 6, 2004 17:23 WSPC/124-JEE 00177
3 0 .0 0
2 9 .0 0
2 7 .0 0 Region IV
Bahrain
2 6 .0 0
Region III Iran
North Latitude
2 5 .0 0
Qatar
Arabian/Persian Gulf Region VI
Region VII
2 4 .0 0 Gulf of Oman
2 2 .0 0
Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Sultanate of Oman
2 1 .0 0
2 0 .0 0
5 0 .0 0 5 1 .0 0 5 2 .0 0 5 3 .0 0 5 4 .00 0 55.00 5 6 .0 0 5 7 .0 0 5 8 .0 0 5 9 .0 0 6 0 .0 0
East Longitude
and most of its surroundings into seven seismic source regions, as shown in Fig. 3.
A background seismicity, with b = 0.8, Mmin = 4 and Mmax = 5, is used to model
the random occurrence of small and moderate size events for areas outside these
seismic source regions [EERI, 1989].
As indicated in Table 1, the seismic source regions are:
log N = a − bM , (2)
where:
Ni = Activity rate for source i, and N is the number of source regions
υ[A > a] = Rate that certain ground acceleration “a” is exceeded
October 6, 2004 17:23 WSPC/124-JEE 00177
The conditional probability, i.e. P [A > a|M,R ], of ground acceleration “A” ex-
ceeding value “a” at a site given “M ” and “R” can be evaluated using the log
normal distribution and the attenuation relation as follows [Abdalla et al., 2001;
Puttonen and Varpasuo, 1981]:
log a − C1 − C2 M − C3 log(R + C4 )
P [A > a|M, R] = 1 − Φ , (7)
σI
where Φ is the cumulative of the Standardized Log Normal Distribution, σI is
the standard deviation of acceleration. More details of the derivation are shown in
Abdalla et al. [2001].
The probability density function of magnitude fM (M ) can be evaluated from
G–R recurrence relation for any local magnitude M . The probability density func-
tions of the hypocentral distance, fR (R), depends on the spatial relationship be-
tween the earthquake source and the site to be investigated. Since the distance
density function can be solved only in specific cases, a uniformly distributed seis-
micity is assumed and Eq. (6) can now be integrated over the entire source region.
Figures 4 through 6 shows the result of the seismic hazard analysis of the studied
area. Table 3 gives a summary of the maximum PGA on bedrock for the seven
regions for different time spans. It is observed from Table 3 that the maximum PGA
on bedrock occurs in the Zagros region where the PGA reached almost 500 cm/sec 2
(0.51 g) for 200 years time span. Central Iran, Lut and North Eastern Arabian
Gulf Regions also show, respectively, high PGA. Northern Emirates, Makran and
Southeast Arabian Region regions shows moderate to low PGA.
3 0 .0 0
2 9 .0 0
2 8 .0 0
2 7 .0 0 Iran
Bahrain
2 6 .0 0
North Latitude
Arabian/Persian Gulf
Qatar
2 5 .0 0
Gulf of Oman
2 4 .0 0
2 2 .0 0
2 0 .0 0
5 0 .0 0 5 1 .0 0 5 2 .0 0 5 3 .0 0 5 4 .0 0 5 5 .0 0 5 6 .0 0 5 7 .0 0 5 8 .0 0 5 9 .0 0 6 0 .0 0
East Longitude
Fig. 4. PGA (cm/sec2 ) with a 10% probability of exceedance in a 50 years time span.
3 0 .0 0
2 9 .0 0
2 8 .0 0
2 7 .0 0 Iran
Bahrain
2 6 .0 0
North Latitude
Arabian/Persian Gulf
Qatar
2 5 .0 0
Gulf of Oman
2 4 .0 0
2 2 .0 0
2 0 .0 0
5 0 .0 0 5 1 .0 0 5 2 .0 0 5 3 .0 0 5 4 .0 0 5 5 .0 0 5 6 .0 0 5 7 .0 0 5 8 .0 0 5 9 .0 0 6 0 .0 0
East Longitude
Fig. 5. PGA (cm/sec2 ) with a 10% probability of exceedance in a 100 years time span.
3 0 .0 0
2 9 .0 0
2 8 .0 0
2 7 .0 0 Iran
Bahrain
2 6 .0 0
North Latitude
Arabian/Persian Gulf
Qatar
2 5 .0 0
Gulf of Oman
2 4 .0 0
2 3 .0 0
United Arab Emirates
2 2 .0 0
2 0 .0 0
5 0 .0 0 5 1 .0 0 5 2 .0 0 5 3 .0 0 5 4 .0 0 5 5 .0 0 5 6 .0 0 5 7 .0 0 5 8 .0 0 5 9 .0 0 6 0 .0 0
East Longitude
Fig. 6. PGA (cm/sec2 ) with a 10% probability of exceedance in a 200 year time span.
0.20 g, i.e. with an average of 0.15 g, covers Greater Dubai, Sharjah and Ajman
area where the highest PGA in Fujaira area approaches 0.2 g. No part of UAE lie
within Zone 2B or Zone 3. The delineation of zones for UAE and its surounding
are clearly marked in Fig. 7.
3 0 .0 0
2 9 .0 0
2 8 .0 0 Zone 3
Zone 2B
2 7 .0 0
Bahrain
2 6 .0 0 Zone 2A Iran
North Latitude
Arabian/Persian Gulf
Qatar
2 5 .0 0
Zone
Gulf of Oman
2 4 .0 0
United Arab Emirates
2 3 .0 0
Zone 0
2 2 .0 0
2 0 .0 0
5 0 .0 0 5 1 .0 0 5 2 .0 0 5 3 .0 0 5 4 .0 0 5 5 .0 0 5 6 .0 0 5 7 .0 0 5 8 .0 0 5 9 .0 0 6 0 .0 0
East Longitude
Fig. 7. Seismic zoning map of UAE and its vicinity for 475 years return period showing five zones
(0,1, 2A, 2B and 3).
It is interesting to note that UBC97 also classifies Manama (Bahrain) and Doha
(Qatar) as Zone 0, whereas Dharan (Saudi Arabia) and Kuwait are classified as
Zone 1. This would appear to be somewhat inconsistent since Dharan, Manama and
Doha are relatively close to each other, but it does confirm that the seismic hazard
along the southern edge of the Arabian Gulf is generally low. It is also noteworthy,
however, that Muscat (Oman) is classified as Zone 2A in UBC97, suggesting slightly
higher hazard. The higher hazard classification in Oman may reflect the influence of
large but relatively distant earthquakes in the Makran subduction zone in southern
Iran rather than significant local earthquakes activity. In the analyses performed
here the Northern Emirates are in Zone 2A, the middle part is in Zone 1 and
southern part of UAE is Zone 0.
In the analyses performed here the Z factors need to be estimated considering
the results of the current study. For this reason, response spectrum analysis con-
sidering soil conditions is required for representative sites in the UAE, where the
PGA on bedrock used in such analysis is obtained from the current study. This is
October 6, 2004 17:23 WSPC/124-JEE 00177
9. Conclusion
This paper investigated seismic hazard and seismic zoning of UAE and its surround-
ings based on probabilistic approach. The significant results of this investigation
are: (1) generation of seismic zone map that can be used, however with caution, as
a guide for determining the design earthquake for different regions of the studied
area; and (2) review of tectonics and seismotectonics of the studied area.
The area studied in this investigation span several countries with diverse tectonic
and geologic structures as well as various local geotechnical conditions. Although
the results of the seismic hazard assessment indicated that UAE has moderate to
low seismic hazard levels, nevertheless high seismic activities in the north part of
UAE warrant attention. The Northern Emirates is the most seismically active part
of UAE. The PGA on bedrock in this region ranges between 0.22 g for a return
period of 475 years to 0.38 g for a return period of 1900 years.
This magnitude of PGA on bedrock, together with amplification from local site
effect, can cause structural damage to key structures and lifeline systems. There-
fore, it is advisable that, earthquake effects should be taken into consideration when
designing major structures in these regions. Also, since there is no earthquake re-
sistant design code developed or adopted for UAE and for most of the countries of
the studied area, it is high time to consider this goal and provide engineers with
provisions and guidelines for earthquake-resistant design. This paper is the first
step towards achieving such goal.
Besides the inherent uncertainties in seismic hazard assessment, the results ob-
tained in this study have some other limitations and therefore future research in
some key areas is needed as follows: (1) The hazard assessment is done for an ideal
bed-rock condition, therefore care should be taken when using the results for sites
with special local conditions. In such cases, evaluation of local site and basin effects
such as soil types, geotechnical characteristics of sediments, topographic effects,
etc. should be considered since there is a wide variation of such characteristics from
region to another and from site to another. (2) The attenuation relation used in
this investigation is for Zagros fold zone. Since the reliability of the attenuation
relation greatly affects the assessment of earthquake hazards, the result of this in-
vestigation need to be revised and calibrated when sufficient strong motion data
become available and a reliable attenuation relation for other regions are devised.
(3) Seismic microzonation maps of densely populated cities (megacities) of UAE
and its surroundings need to be developed.
October 6, 2004 17:23 WSPC/124-JEE 00177
Acknowledgment
The support for the research presented in this paper had been provided by the
American University of Sharjah, Faculty Research Grant. The support is gratefully
acknowledged. The views and conclusions, expressed or implied, in this document
are those of the authors and should not be interpreted as those of the sponsor.
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