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May needs 318 votes to win, but she does not have an outright
majority of the 650 MPs, and hardline Brexit members of her
Conservative Party have said they will vote against her plan. The
northern Irish DUP, which props up her government, also opposes
the deal in its current form due to the inclusion of the so-called
backstop. This provision would maintain an open border between
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Northern Ireland, a British territory, and EU member Ireland if the
UK and the EU fail to agree on a new free trade deal by December
2020. Both DUP and hardline Conservative MPs fear the backstop
would tie the UK to the EU indefinitely.
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MPs will wrap up the debate and then embark on a series of votes.
Firstly to approve or reject amendments to the government's motion
and then to back or reject the motion.
The announcement
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John Bercow, will, as per protocol, ask those in favor to shout "Aye"
and those against "No." If the Speaker is unable to judge whether
there is a clear result, he calls a "division" by announcing "clear the
lobbies."
During a division, MPs divide into either the Aye lobby or the No
lobby. As they walk through the lobbies, clerks record their names
which are then counted by four appointed tellers. The results are
then written down and given to the senior teller. The tellers line up
in front of the Table of the House before the Speaker where one of
them reads out the result. The written results are then passed to
the Speaker who reads the figures again and announces the result.
The whole process takes about 15 minutes.
The law states that the government has 21 days to state how it
wants to proceed. As outlined above, that period has been limited
to three days. May has previously said that if the motion is rejected,
the UK will leave the EU on March 29 without a deal. For May
personally, it could mean the end of her tenure as prime minister.
On the back of 117 of her party's 317 MPs voting against her in
December's no confidence vote, a defeat on Tuesday would
increase the pressure on her to resign.
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Theresa May could very well be out of a job soon
Jeremy Corbyn, leader of the Labour Party, has said his party will
vote against the deal and has called for a general election should
the government lose the vote and May is forced to step down. In a
first step, Corbyn said he would call a vote of no confidence in the
government. If a general election is called and Labour emerges
victorious, Corbyn has said he would renegotiate the terms of the
Brexit deal with the EU.
A constitutional crisis?