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Brexit endgame: What you need to


know | DW | 14.01.2019
Deutsche Welle (www.dw.com)
5-7 minutes

The Brexit saga reaches its peak on Tuesday when the UK


parliament votes on Prime Minister Theresa May's deal with the
EU. If she loses she could be out of a job. Rob Mudge looks at the
vote and what could happen next.

What are MPs voting on?

The debate and vote is on whether parliament approves a motion


stating that MPs back the Withdrawal Agreement, a legally binding
text that sets out the terms for leaving the EU. Separately, MPs will
also be asked to vote on a declaration that details the UK's post-
Brexit relationship with the EU.

Read more: Opinion: What happened to Brexit architect David


Cameron?

May needs 318 votes to win, but she does not have an outright
majority of the 650 MPs, and hardline Brexit members of her
Conservative Party have said they will vote against her plan. The
northern Irish DUP, which props up her government, also opposes
the deal in its current form due to the inclusion of the so-called
backstop. This provision would maintain an open border between

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Northern Ireland, a British territory, and EU member Ireland if the
UK and the EU fail to agree on a new free trade deal by December
2020. Both DUP and hardline Conservative MPs fear the backstop
would tie the UK to the EU indefinitely.

Brexit timeline: Charting Britain's turbulent exodus from


Europe

June 2016: 'The will of the British people'

After a shrill referendum campaign, nearly 52 percent of British


voters opted to leave the EU on June 24. Polls had shown a close
race before the vote with a slight lead for those favoring remaining
in the EU. Conservative British Prime Minister David Cameron, who
had campaigned for Britain to stay, acknowledged the 'will of the
British people' and resigned the following morning.

How does it work?

Five days of debate got underway on January 9. On January 15,

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MPs will wrap up the debate and then embark on a series of votes.
Firstly to approve or reject amendments to the government's motion
and then to back or reject the motion.

The government has already suffered two setbacks: MPs approved


an amendment that will trim the government's tax-raising powers
and prohibit spending measures to offset the impact of a no-deal
Brexit without parliamentary approval.

In a further defeat for the government, MPs backed an amendment


related to the time May would have to submit a Brexit plan B in the
event that she loses the vote. Under normal circumstances, the
government would have 21 days to come up with an alternative.
However, given the current situation, defeat over the amendment
means May would have to present a new plan within three days.

John Bercow, the speaker of the House of Commons, will oversee


the voting procedure

The announcement

Voting is due to start at 8 p.m. CET. The speaker of the house,

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John Bercow, will, as per protocol, ask those in favor to shout "Aye"
and those against "No." If the Speaker is unable to judge whether
there is a clear result, he calls a "division" by announcing "clear the
lobbies."

During a division, MPs divide into either the Aye lobby or the No
lobby. As they walk through the lobbies, clerks record their names
which are then counted by four appointed tellers. The results are
then written down and given to the senior teller. The tellers line up
in front of the Table of the House before the Speaker where one of
them reads out the result. The written results are then passed to
the Speaker who reads the figures again and announces the result.
The whole process takes about 15 minutes.

What happens if May loses?

The law states that the government has 21 days to state how it
wants to proceed. As outlined above, that period has been limited
to three days. May has previously said that if the motion is rejected,
the UK will leave the EU on March 29 without a deal. For May
personally, it could mean the end of her tenure as prime minister.
On the back of 117 of her party's 317 MPs voting against her in
December's no confidence vote, a defeat on Tuesday would
increase the pressure on her to resign.

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Theresa May could very well be out of a job soon

And what of the opposition?

Jeremy Corbyn, leader of the Labour Party, has said his party will
vote against the deal and has called for a general election should
the government lose the vote and May is forced to step down. In a
first step, Corbyn said he would call a vote of no confidence in the
government. If a general election is called and Labour emerges
victorious, Corbyn has said he would renegotiate the terms of the
Brexit deal with the EU.

He also hasn't ruled out a second referendum, favored by many in


the Labour party, but only if an election can't be secured.

A constitutional crisis?

Some political observers are describing the endgame over Brexit as


not so much a divide between the UK and the EU but a bitter power
struggle between the government and Parliament — and a
precursor to a constitutional crisis, as no one really knows what
would happen next. Currently there is no majority for any of the
available options: No deal (which would impose trade barriers,
potentially triggering gridlock at ports and a shortage of goods), a
soft Brexit that would keep the UK closer to the EU, or a second
referendum.

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