WxBriefing FB

Significant Winter Storm Saturday Night
through Sunday Night

Decision Support Briefing #3 Current Hazards
As of: 530 PM Jan 18, 2019
What Has Changed?

Upgrading to winter storm warning for Interior
Portions of NE NJ and the Lower Hudson Valley
and Northern Fairfield County
Coastal Flood Watch S Queens and Nassau
Counties
Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created
New York, NY Follow us on Twitter Follow us on Facebook 1/18/2019 5:58 PM
Main Points
Hazard Impacts Location Timing
• Snow and Sleet accum of 6-10”
possible. Interior Lower Hudson Valley,
Heavy • 1/10-1/4” of ice, locally 1/2” Interior NE NJ, and northern Saturday Night into Sunday
• Snowfall rates of 1-2”/hr possible Fairfield
Snow/Sleet early Sat Night.
afternoon
• Dangerous Travel.
• Snow/Sleet accum of 2-6” possible.

Snow/Sleet • Snowfall rates of 1”/hr possible
NE NJ, northern portions of
NYC, NW Long Island ,
Saturday Night into Sunday
Freezing early Sat Night. southern Weschester, and
afternoon
• Few hundredths to 1/4” of ice much of southern CT.
Rain • Dangerous Travel.
• Plummeting temperatures over NE NJ, NYC, Long Island,

Flash wet/slushy surfaces, will bring southern Weschester, and
Late Sunday Morning into
Evening
Freeze potential for Flash freeze much of southern CT.
Strong • Numerous downed snow/ice Entire Tri-State Region Sunday afternoon thru Sunday
covered tree limbs and power lines
Winds Night
• Heavy rain could cause urban, poor Freshwater - NE NJ, NYC Freshwater Flooding – Saturday
Freshwater drainage, and small stream flooding metro and coast Night into Sunday
and Coastal for NYC/NJ metro and coast Coastal – Highest threat
Coastal Flooding- During the
• Minor to Moderate coastal flooding across southern bays of W
Flooding in vulnerable areas. (1-2 ft AGL) LI/NYC Sunday Morning High Tide

Summary of Greatest Impacts
Heavy Snow: Interior of Lower Hudson Valley, interior NE NJ, and interior
SW CT
None Limited Elevated Significant Extreme
Mixed Precip: NE NJ, northern portions of NYC, NW Long Island , much

of Lower Hudson Valley and Southern CT.
Flash freeze: NE NJ, NYC, NW Long Island , southern Lower Hudson Valley
and Southern CT .
Strong Winds: Entire Tri-State Region
Freshwater and Coastal Flooding: NE NJ, NYC metro and coast

Most Likely Precipitation Types – Forecast Scenario 1
Putnam
Torrington Hartford
Poughkeepsie Willimantic
Norwich
Middletown Waterbury
Carmel
Montague Danbury New London
New Haven
New City Bridgeport
West Milford
White Plains
Belvidere Paramus Montauk
Morristown
NYC Islip
Westhampton Precipitation
Newark Farmingdale Types
JFK Heavy Snow/Sleet and
New Brunswick Freezing Rain
Current forecast is close to this scenario, Snow/Sleet changing to

accounting for a storm trackTrenton Freehold
just to the south Freezing rain and then
and east of Long Island. possible rain
If low pressure tracks farther south and east,
snow and ice accumulations would be higher Wintry Mix to Mostly
than currently forecast. Rain
Most Likely Precipitation Types – Forecast Scenario 2
Putnam
Torrington Hartford
Poughkeepsie Willimantic
Norwich
Middletown Waterbury
Carmel
Montague Danbury New London
New Haven
New City Bridgeport
West Milford
White Plains
Belvidere Paramus Montauk
Morristown
NYC Islip
Westhampton Precipitation
Newark Farmingdale Types
JFK Heavy Snow/Sleet and
New Brunswick Freezing Rain
Snow/Sleet changing to
Trenton
A storm track over the coast would
Freehold Freezing rain and then
decrease snow, sleet and ice accumulation possible rain
across the entire area, with little to no snow
and ice accumulation along the immediate Wintry Mix to Mostly
coast. Rain
Heavy Snow and Sleet
Hazards:
 Interior Lower Hudson Valley, interior NE NJ, and interior SW CT
 6-10” of Snow and Sleet possible
 Snowfall rates of 1-2”/hr early Sat Night
 Vsby 1/4 mile or less
 NE NJ, northern portions NYC, NW Long Island, much of Southern CT

and Southern Westchester.
 2-6” of Snow and Sleet possible (highest N&W sections) before
changeover to freezing rain and/or rain
 Snowfall rates of up to 1”/hr early Saturday Night
Impacts:
 Potentially dangerous travel Saturday Night through Sunday Night, away
from immediate coast.
 Numerous downed tree limbs and scattered power outages Sunday
afternoon into Sunday Night, away from immediate coast.
Timing:
Most Likely  Snow begins Saturday afternoon into early evening, becoming moderate
to heavy while transitioning to a wintry mix from south to north Saturday
Eve/Night.
 A period of moderate to heavy rain is likely late Saturday Night into
Sunday morning along the coast. A transition back to a wintry mix is
possible down to the coast late Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon
Uncertainty/Scenarios: Still quite a bit of track uncertainty!

 A storm track farther north and west would decrease snow and sleet
accumulation across the entire area, with little to no snow accumulation
along the immediate coast.
 A storm track farther south and east would increase snow and sleet
accumulations down to the coast.
Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Sleet Accumulation
Snow and Sleet forecast would trend closer to

this scenario if the storm tracks N and W of NYC
Snow and Sleet forecast would trend closer to

this scenario if the storm tracks farther southeast
of Long Island

Ice Accumulation
Hazards:
 1/10 to 1/4 of ice for Northeastern NJ, Lower Hudson
Valley, and Interior Southern Connecticut
 Locally ½ inch of ice possible
 Few hundredths to 1/4” of ice across NE NJ, Northern
portions of NYC, NW Long Island, southern Lower
Hudson Valley and SW CT.
 A trace to few hundredths of ice for Southern and Eastern
LI, and southern LI, SE CT.
Impacts:
 Numerous downed tree limbs and scattered power
outages possible Sunday afternoon into Sunday Night
 Icing on Untreated Surfaces
 Dangerous travel Saturday Night through Sunday Night
Timing:
 Freezing rain threat Late Saturday Night through Sunday
morning
Uncertainty/Scenarios:
Still quite a bit of track uncertainty!
 A storm track farther south and east would increase ice
accumulations down to the coast.
 A storm track further north and west would shift highest ice
accumulations across the interior, with lesser amounts
along the city and coast.

Probabilistic Ice Accumulation - Reasonable Worse Case
A reasonable worse case scenario of ¼ to ½ inch of ice across

the Lower Hudson Valley, northeastern NJ, much of southern
CT, northern portions of NYC, and NW Long Island. This scenario
is possible if the storm stays well southeast of Long Island

Most Likely Precipitation Transition Times



Liquid Equivalent Precipitation-Freshwater Flooding
Hazards:
 Rainfall of 1 to 1 ½”, locally 2”, across NYC,
NE NJ, Long Island, and Coastal CT
 Highest amounts of plain rain across
Long Island
 Rainfall rates of 1/4 to 1/2“/hr- late Saturday
Night through Sunday morning
Impacts:
 Minor flooding of Urban and Poor Drainage
Areas and Roads
 Minor flooding of quick responding small
streams and creeks in northeastern NJ is
possible.
 Heavy rain during the times of high tide will
exacerbate flooding across low-lying coastal
areas Sunday morning
Timing:
 Heaviest rain late Saturday Night through
Sunday Morning.

Strong Winds
Hazards:
 Northwest winds of 20 to 25 mph with
gusts 35 to 45 mph
Impacts:
 Numerous ice and snow covered trees
Peak Wind Gust Image limbs and power lines could be downed
 Scattered to Numerous power outages
 Difficult travel conditions for high profile
vehicles
Timing:
 Sunday Afternoon into Monday.

Possible Flash Freeze Late Sunday Morn into Sun Eve
Arctic Blast Sunday Night into Monday
Hazards:
 Temperatures plummet into the teens and 20s
Sunday aft/eve, presenting potential for a Flash
Freeze of wet or slushy surfaces Sunday
Afternoon into Sunday Evening.
 Sunday Night:
 Low Temps: 0 Interior to single digits
for the coast
 Min wind chills: -10 to -20 F
 Monday:
 High Temps: Lower to mid teens
Peak Wind Gust Image  Wind chills: 0 to -10 F
 Monday Night:
 Low Temps: Around 0 interior to
around 10 for the coast
 Wind chills: 0 to -10 F
Impacts:
 Black ice on surface will make for hazardous travel
conditions Sunday night into Monday morning
 Hypothermia and frostbite with prolonged exposure
Uncertainty/Forecast Scenarios:
 Depending on how quickly temperatures plummet
late Sunday morning into evening, there is
potential for a flash freeze across coastal portions
of the region, including NYC.
Coastal Flooding
Coastal Flood Hazards and Impacts:
 Widespread minor to locally moderate
coastal flooding along the coast
 Highest risk of moderate coastal flooding,
with inundation of 1 to 2 ft above ground,
mainly for vulnerable locales along the
southern bays of Queens and Nassau
counties
 Several waterfront road closures
 Minor damage to coastal properties
 Heavy rain during the times of high tide will
exacerbate flooding Sunday morning
Shoreline Hazards and Impacts:

 8-12’ breaking waves along the Atlantic
Oceanfront
 Beach erosion and flooding
 Localized dune erosion possible
Timing:
 During times of high tide Sunday Morning.

Winter Storm Warning for Interior Portions of NE NJ, Lower Hudson
Valley and N Fairfield County
Winter Storm Watch in Effect for Much of the Rest of Region
 Snow, Sleet, Freezing Rain late Saturday Into Sunday

 Interior of Lower Hudson Valley, Interior NE NJ, and Interior SW CT
 6-10” of Snow and Sleet
 1/10-1/4”- locally ½” of ice
 NE NJ, NYC, NW Long Island , much of Lower Hudson Valley and Southern CT.
 2-6” of snow and sleet
 Few Hundredths to around 1/4” of ice
 Heavy Rain along the Coastal Plain late Saturday Night through Sunday
morning (1 to 1 ½”, locally 2”)
 Minor urban, poor drainage, and small stream flooding possible
 Minor to locally Moderate Coastal Flood Impacts Sunday Morning
 Strong winds likely across the entire area Sunday afternoon into Monday
 Numerous downed tree limbs and scattered power outages possible
Sunday afternoon into Sunday Night
 Flash Freeze potential Late Sun morning into evening
 Frigid Temps Sunday Night through Monday Night
 Gale conditions eastern waters Saturday Night and all waters Sunday
afternoon through Monday

Contact and Next Briefing Information
Next Briefing
Around 6am Saturday Morning
Powerpoint Briefing
Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSNewYorkNY
Twitter:
Web:
http://www.twitter.com/NWSNewYorkNY
http://www.weather.gov/okx/
YouTube:
https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSNewYor
kNY
The information contained within this briefing is time-sensitive,

do not use after 8 AM Saturday (1/19/19).


WxBriefing FB

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WxBriefing FB

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Droits d'auteur :

Significant Winter Storm Saturday Night

through Sunday Night

What Has Changed?

• Snow/Sleet accum of 2-6” possible.

• Plummeting temperatures over NE NJ, NYC, Long Island,

Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created

None Limited Elevated Significant Extreme

Mixed Precip: NE NJ, northern portions of NYC, NW Long Island , much

None Limited Elevated Significant Extreme

Strong Winds: Entire Tri-State Region

None Limited Elevated Significant Extreme

Freshwater and Coastal Flooding: NE NJ, NYC metro and coast

None Limited Elevated Significant Extreme

Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created

Current forecast is close to this scenario, Snow/Sleet changing to

 NE NJ, northern portions NYC, NW Long Island, much of Southern CT

Uncertainty/Scenarios: Still quite a bit of track uncertainty!

Snow and Sleet forecast would trend closer to

Snow and Sleet forecast would trend closer to

Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created

Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created

A reasonable worse case scenario of ¼ to ½ inch of ice across

Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created

Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created

Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created

Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created

Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created

Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created

Shoreline Hazards and Impacts:

Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created

 Snow, Sleet, Freezing Rain late Saturday Into Sunday

Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created

The information contained within this briefing is time-sensitive,

Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created

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