Is the Indian Economy on an upswing now?

Author: D.K.Srivastava

Source: The Hindu

Date: 8 June’ 2018

What was the issue all about?

Nine consecutive quarters since the fourth of 2015-16 has seen a downfall in the
Indian Gross Domestic Product. It fell from 9 percent to nearly 5.6 percent;
reasons constituted can range from demonetization to adverse effects of
unplanned implementation in the Goods and Services tax.

Upswing is considered due to the fact that it nearly reached 7.7 percent in the last
quarter of 2017-18; however this growth can only be attributed to the domestic
factors only because the export growth was nearly negative.

Focusing on Productivity:

Indian Government all through its initiatives and actions has shown that it is
focusing a lot upon the domestic productivity of the nation. New Monetary Policy
Framework and the actions taken in the field of spectrum and power are much
celebrated while focusing upon the productivity. Make in India and Start-up India
has given power to those hands which were once not having anything to brag
upon. These two initiatives in themselves have the capability to create a huge
amount of jobs in the nation which will directly serve in the increase of growth i.e.
an upswing an economy.

Factors which can impact it negatively?

In the current world scenario, only rise in crude oil price in the global market and
the prospects of Fiscal Slippage can take a dig deep on the Indian economy. Since
2014, it is for the first time that the prices of crude oil have reached as high as $80
in the global market. U.S. sanctions on Iran have made it tough for India to sustain
its Import need because Iran is the only nation who is accepting our Indian Rupee
for the deal to be done. Due to U.S. sanctions, we have to redistribute our needs
amongst rest of the producing nations and have to pay in Dollars which will
indirectly weaken the Indian Economy.

The Center's financial deficiency GDP proportion, in the wake of demonstrating an

unfaltering change since 2014-15, slipped back to a level of over 3.5% of GDP in
2017-18, surpassing the monetary duty and spending administration (FRBM) focus
of 3% and the planned focus of 3.2%. With the general decision around the bend,
this circumstance may not enhance disregarding the way that the FRBM Act has
been altered, moving the strategy grapple to accomplishing an obligation GDP
proportion of 40% while holding the financial deficiency focus at 3% of GDP. This
objective is currently to be come to by March 2021.

Need to Discuss?

The need to discuss lies in the fact that there exist an analogy in between World-
Nation and Nation-People. The health and wealth of our nation is governed by the
global scenarios along with few domestic decision, similarly the growth of people
in terms of employment, business i.e. prosperity and lifestyle is somewhat related
to nation’s scenario.

Inflation affects the budget and budget defines the way of living thus it is
expected that any imbalance in the global scenario will lead to weakening of
country’s economy which will severely be affected by its own decision. If the
value of rupee falls then in the global scenario we are becoming poorer with the
same amount which we are having and in today’s world where the talent is
limitless and potential to grow boundless, where every human is a global citizen
being poorer is a bane which will restrict growth.

This discussion is directly relating to all those start-ups which are created under
Start-up India project and to all those people who are associated with Multi
National Companies because nobody wishes to be on the negative side of the
world, thus a growing economy will have boundless opportunities and a falling
one will have innumerable unemployed.