POLL EMBARGOED UNTIL 23RD JANUARY 2019, 6 AM CST

UltraPoll -
Manitoba Edition
Voter Intention Numbers
23rd January 2019
METHODOLOGY
The analysis in this report is based on results of a
survey conducted between January 14th to 16th,
2019 among a sample of 810 adults, 18 years of
age or older, living in Manitoba. The survey was
conducted using automated telephone interviews
(Smart IVR). Respondents were interviewed on
both landlines and cellular phones.
The sampling frame was derived from random
digit dialing.
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research
and was not sponsored by a third party.
The margin of error for the first survey is +/- 3.44%
and is accurate 19 times out of 20.
(full methodology appears at the end of this
report)
ABOUT MAINSTREET
With 20 years of political experience in all three
levels of government, President and CEO Quito
Maggi is a respected commentator on international
public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet
Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP
government in Alberta, and was the only polling firm
to correctly predict a Liberal majority government
in the 2015 federal election. Mainstreet also
accurately predicted the 2018 Ontario election and
was the first to predict that a CAQ majority win in
the 2018 Quebec election. Mainstreet Research
is a member of the World Association for Public
Opinion Research and meets international and
Canadian publication standards.
CONTACT INFORMATION
In Ottawa:
Quito Maggi, President
quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
In Toronto:
Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
Find us online at:
www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
PALLISTER EXTEND LEAD OVER NDP

23 January 2018 (Ottawa, ON) – The Progressive Conservatives led by Brian

Pallister have gained three points since November and now have nearly a
seventeen point lead over the opposition NDP.

Those are the findings from Mainstreet Research’s latest UltraPoll, a

conglomeration of ten provincial polls. The poll surveyed 810 Manitobans
between January 14th to 16th. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.44%
and is accurate 19 times out of 20.

“The Pallister PCs have recovered from their dip in November,” said Quito
Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet Research. “This has happened
while most Manitobans have a negative view of Premier Pallister.”

Among decided and leaning voters, the PCs have 44.6% (+2.3% from
November), while the NDP led by Wab Kinew come in with 28% support
(-0.7%). The Liberals with Dougald Lamont at the helm currently enjoy 17%
(-1.1%), and the Greens with James Beddome as leader have 4.6% (-1.4%).

The poll also asked Manitobans about their impressions of the party leaders.
Just like in November, no party leader enjoys a positive favourability rating.
The best performing party leader was Lamont with -6.6%, with Kinew
following closely behind with -7.3%. Pallister’s rating stands at -17.5%.

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:

Joseph Angolano, 647-894-1552 - joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
otersIf a provincial election were held today, which party would
you vote for?

15.3%

2.1%
2.7% 38.2%

3.9%

All Voters

13.7%

ded and Leaning Voters

24.2%
ll Voters
2.5%
3.5%
Progressive Conservatives NDP Liberals Greens Manitoba Party Another Party Undecided
4.6%
17.9%

16.8% 35.1%
1.5%
2.5% 44.6%

5.1% Decided and Leaning Voters

All Voters

14.3%

28%
23.6%

Progressive Conservatives NDP Liberals Greens Manitoba Party Another Party Undecided
Progressive Conservatives NDP Liberals Greens Manitoba Party Another Party
 Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of the
following party leaders?
an Pallister Wab Kinew

24.5% 23.6%
27.3%

35.3%

3.4% Brian Pallister Wab Kinew

30.9%
10.2%

Dougald Lamont 44.8%

Favourable Unfavourable Not familiar Not sure Favourable Unfavourable Not familiar Not sure
12.6%

19.2%

52.2% Dougald Lamont

16%
es Beddome Steven Fletcher
Brian Pallister
7.2%
Favourable Unfavourable Not familiar Not sure 12.6%

21.6%
14.8%
26%

39.6%

53.1%
James Beddome Steven Fletcher
6.4%
Brian Pallister
33.4%

24.9%

14.4%
45.9%

Favourable Unfavourable Not familiar Not sure Favourable Unfavourable Not familiar Not sure
Favourable Unfavourable Not familiar Not sure
Breakout Tables
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(all voters)
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Rest of MB Winnipeg
Progressive Conservatives led by Brian Pallister 38.2% 46.6% 30% 38.7% 35.3% 39.3% 39.5% 50.3% 30.8%
NDP led by Wab Kinew 24.2% 23.8% 24.6% 22.1% 28.4% 20.6% 26.7% 17.6% 28.2%
Liberals led by Dougald Lamont 13.7% 9.8% 17.5% 15.1% 9.5% 15.9% 14.1% 9% 16.5%
Greens led by James Bedomme 3.9% 3.2% 4.6% 5.7% 4.8% 2.7% 1.7% 3.8% 4%
Manitoba Party, led by Steven Fletcher 2.7% 3% 2.4% 1.9% 3.7% 2.9% 2.2% 1.4% 3.5%
Another Party 2.1% 2.5% 1.6% 2.1% 1.9% 1.5% 3% 1.9% 2.2%
Undecided 15.3% 11.1% 19.3% 14.3% 16.4% 17.2% 12.9% 15.9% 14.9%
Unweighted Frequency 810 481 329 194 223 243 150 396 414
Weighted Frequency 810 399 411 240 205 209 156 306 504

(leaning voters with true undecided totals)

All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Rest of MB Winnipeg
Progressive Conservatives led by Brian Pallister 40.6% 49.4% 32.1% 40.1% 38.4% 42.7% 41.3% 52.6% 33.4%
NDP led by Wab Kinew 25.5% 24.1% 26.8% 22.1% 30.4% 21.3% 29.6% 18.6% 29.6%
Liberals led by Dougald Lamont 15.1% 11.3% 18.8% 16.4% 10% 18.1% 16.1% 9.7% 18.4%
Greens led by James Bedomme 4.1% 3.2% 4.9% 6.2% 4.8% 2.7% 1.7% 4.2% 4%
Manitoba Party, led by Steven Fletcher 3.1% 3.2% 3.1% 3.2% 3.7% 2.9% 2.7% 2% 3.8%
Another Party 2.3% 2.8% 1.9% 2.1% 1.9% 1.9% 3.9% 1.9% 2.6%
Undecided 9.2% 6.1% 12.3% 9.9% 10.6% 10.5% 4.7% 11% 8.2%
Unweighted Frequency 810 481 329 194 223 243 150 396 414
Weighted Frequency 810 399 411 240 205 209 156 306 504

(decided and leaning voters)

All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Rest of MB Winnipeg
Progressive Conservatives led by Brian Pallister 44.6% 52.8% 36.7% 44.4% 43.2% 47.4% 43.3% 58.8% 36%
NDP led by Wab Kinew 28% 25.6% 30.4% 24.5% 33.9% 23.9% 31.2% 20.9% 32.3%
Liberals led by Dougald Lamont 16.8% 12% 21.4% 18.2% 11.2% 20.5% 16.9% 11.1% 20.2%
Greens led by James Bedomme 4.6% 3.3% 5.7% 6.9% 5.5% 3.1% 1.7% 4.8% 4.4%
Manitoba Party, led by Steven Fletcher 3.5% 3.4% 3.5% 3.6% 4.1% 3.1% 2.8% 2.2% 4.2%
Another Party 2.5% 2.9% 2.2% 2.3% 2.1% 2.1% 4.1% 2% 2.8%
Unweighted Frequency 738 451 287 175 200 220 143 356 382
Weighted Frequency 738 363 375 218 187 191 142 279 259
 Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Brian Pallister?
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Rest of MB Winnipeg
Favourable 27.3% 35.2% 19.5% 25% 28.8% 27.1% 28.9% 33.2% 23.6%
Unfavourable 44.8% 41.5% 48% 40.8% 51.1% 41.8% 46.6% 32.9% 52%
Not familiar with Brian Pallister 3.4% 2.1% 4.7% 4.7% 1.6% 3.9% 3.3% 4.5% 2.8%
Not sure 24.5% 21.2% 27.8% 29.5% 18.6% 27.2% 21.2% 29.4% 21.6%
Unweighted Frequency 810 481 329 194 223 243 150 396 414
Weighted Frequency 810 399 411 240 205 209 156 306 504

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Wab Kinew?

All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Rest of MB Winnipeg
Favourable 23.6% 21.3% 25.8% 20.7% 28.5% 21% 25.2% 17% 27.6%
Unfavourable 30.9% 41.2% 20.9% 27.5% 32.2% 32.8% 31.7% 31.6% 30.4%
Not familiar with Wab Kinew 10.2% 7.5% 12.9% 15.1% 8.7% 6.7% 9.3% 11.9% 9.1%
Not sure 35.3% 30.1% 40.4% 36.6% 30.6% 39.6% 33.8% 39.4% 32.8%
Unweighted Frequency 810 481 329 194 223 243 150 396 414
Weighted Frequency 810 399 411 240 205 209 156 306 504

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Dougald Lamont?

All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Rest of MB Winnipeg
Favourable 12.6% 11.7% 13.5% 12.2% 9.9% 13.6% 15.3% 7.1% 15.9%
Unfavourable 19.2% 25.1% 13.4% 16.6% 20% 23.2% 16.7% 19.2% 19.2%
Not familiar with Dougald Lamont 16% 13.8% 18.1% 16.8% 15.6% 15% 16.5% 20% 13.6%
Not sure 52.2% 49.4% 55% 54.4% 54.4% 48.1% 51.5% 53.6% 51.4%
Unweighted Frequency 810 481 329 194 223 243 150 396 414
Weighted Frequency 810 399 411 240 205 209 156 306 504

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of James Beddome?

All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Rest of MB Winnipeg
Favourable 7.2% 7.5% 7% 9% 7.6% 4.5% 7.8% 5.9% 8%
Unfavourable 14.8% 19.5% 10.2% 12.9% 16.2% 16.8% 13.1% 14.7% 14.9%
Not familiar with James Beddome 24.9% 21% 28.6% 21.7% 24.1% 26.8% 28.1% 26.8% 23.7%
Not sure 53.1% 52% 54.2% 56.5% 52% 51.9% 51% 52.6% 53.4%
Unweighted Frequency 810 481 329 194 223 243 150 396 414
Weighted Frequency 810 399 411 240 205 209 156 306 504

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Steven Fletcher?

All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Rest of MB Winnipeg
Favourable 12.6% 12.3% 12.8% 12.4% 13.5% 12.8% 11.2% 12.3% 12.7%
Unfavourable 33.4% 38.9% 28% 25.4% 32.8% 38% 40.4% 26.3% 37.7%
Not familiar with Steven Fletcher 14.4% 11.1% 17.7% 18.1% 11.9% 13.8% 13.1% 16.3% 13.3%
Not sure 39.6% 37.7% 41.5% 44.1% 41.8% 35.5% 35.3% 45.1% 36.3%
Unweighted Frequency 810 481 329 194 223 243 150 396 414
Weighted Frequency 810 399 411 240 205 209 156 306 504
Full Questionnaire
If a provincial election were held today, Favourable opinion
which party would you vote for? Unfavourable opinion
Progressive Conservative Party of Not sure
Manitoba led by Brian Pallister Not familiar with Wab Kinew
New Democratic Party of Manitoba led by
Wab Kinew Do you have a favourable or
Manitoba Liberal Party led by Dougald unfavourable opinion of Dougald
Lamont Lamont?
Green Party of Manitoba led by James Favourable opinion
Bedomme Unfavourable opinion
Another Party Not sure
Undecided Not familiar with Dougald Lamont

And which party are you leaning Do you have a favourable or

towards? (only asked of respondents unfavourable opinion of James
who were undecided in previous Bedommel?
question) Favourable opinion
Progressive Conservative Party of Unfavourable opinion
Manitoba led by Brian Pallister Not sure
New Democratic Party of Manitoba led by Not familiar with James Bedomme
Wab Kinew
Manitoba Liberal Party led by Dougald Do you have a favourable or
Lamont unfavourable opinion of Steven
Green Party of Manitoba led by James Fletcher?
Bedomme Favourable opinion
Another Party Unfavourable opinion
Undecided Not sure
Not familiar with Steven Fletcher
(the order of the following five
questions were randomized) What is your gender?
Do you have a favourable or Male
unfavourable opinion of Brian Pallister? Female
Favourable opinion
Unfavourable opinion What is your age group?
Not sure 18 to 34 years of age
Not familiar with Brian Pallister 35 to 49 years of age
50 to 64 years of age
65 years of age or older
Do you have a favourable or
unfavourable opinion of Wab Kinew?
Methodology
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted between January 14th to
16th, 2019 among a sample of 810 adults 18 years of age or older, living in Manitoba. The survey
was conducted using Interactive Voice Recording. Respondents were interviewed on both
landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent the voting population of
Manitoba.

This survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and has not been sponsored by any third-
party organization.

The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from random digit dialing.

At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone
number. The calls were staggered over times of day and two days to maximize the chances
of making contact with a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as
possible across the field period.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.
mainstreetresearch.ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If
a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis
preceding the question.

The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults
18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age,
gender, and region.

The margin of error for this poll is +/- 3.44% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are
higher in each subsample.

The margins of error for each subsample is as following: Males: +/- 4.47%, Females: +/- 5.4%,
18-34 age group: +/- 7.04%, 35-49 age group: +/- 6.56%, 50-64 age group: +/-
6.29%, 65+ age group: +/- 8%, Winnipeg: +/- 4.82%, Rest of Manitoba: +/- 4.92%.

Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and
practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of
opinion polls. Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of
error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.