C O N T E N T S

AROMATICS AND
DERIVATIVES

Acetone Paraxylene

Benzene Phthalic Anhydride

Caprolactam Plasticizers

Cyclohexane Phenol

Dimethyl Terephthalate Polyethylene Terephthalate

Ethyl Benzene Polystyrene

Expandable Polystyrene Purified Terephthalic Acid

Maleic Anhydride Styrene

Methyl Diphenyl Diisocyanate Toluene

Orthoxylene Toluene Diisocyanate

 S&D Outlooks - Aromatics and Derivatives
ACETONE
Q4 2018 - Market Review
Supply
EUROPE
Length was a predominant feature in the Europe
acetone market in 2018 with the fourth quarter proving
a slight exception. An acetone force majeure in October
by Swiss-headquartered supplier INEOS Phenol from its
Gladbeck and Antwerp facilities balanced the market.
The production issues at its 405,000 tonne/year
Gladbeck and 500,000 tonne/year Antwerp units
stemmed from low river Rhine water levels alongside
upstream cumene supply difficulties. The force majeure
was then lifted in late December.
Demand
EUROPE
De-stocking and a seasonal slowdown due to the
Christmas holiday period interrupted Europe acetone
demand at year-end. Although, there were participants
that also experienced heightened consumption in
response to production issues in the fourth quarter.
Therefore, order book volumes were mixed in the
market with export activity minimised as sources
focused on domestic business. Downstream in the
methyl methacrylate (MMA) market, multiple producers
also had lower operating rates in December.
Q1 2019 - Market Outlook
Supply
EUROPE
There should be increased Europe acetone availability
in the first quarter as Swiss-headquartered seller INEOS
Phenol lifted its acetone force majeure on Gladbeck and
Antwerp in December. It originally declared the force
majeure in October on the 405,000 tonne/year
Gladbeck and 500,000 tonne/year Antwerp plants.
European acetone supply will also depend on
co-product phenol demand.
Demand
EUROPE
European acetone consumption could receive a slight
boost on re-stocking in January following de-stocking
at the end of 2018. Participants will also keep an eye on
run rates at downstream methyl methacrylate (MMA)
seller Evonik’s plants. The German producer ran its
225,000 tonne/year Worms and 95,000 tonne/year
Wesseling plants at reduced rates in late 2018.
ASIA
Acetone supply in Q4 was ample, outweighing the
demand. This was despite the slew of turnarounds. The
average run rate in China was increased, while India’s
Deepak Phenolics’ production stabilised after starting
up in August. The mid-point was at $580/tonne CFR
CMP on 5 October and slid to $410/tonne CFR CMP on
21 December. In India, the mid-point was at $530/tonne
CFR India on 3 October and down to $407.50/tonne CFR
India on 19 December.
ASIA
Acetone demand in Q4 was subdued, as the cooler
weather curbs downstream consumption such as the
painting and printing projects. Downstream products
like BPA, IPA, MIBK, MMA and PMMA consistently
underperformed. Demand was further curbed by the
weak sentiment, as upstream benzene and propylene
price downtrend surfaced. In India, the import demand
was severely reduced by the start-up of domestic
producer, Deepak Phenolics. Most buyers sought local
volumes for their lower prices and faster deliveries.
ASIA
Acetone supply in Q1 is expected to be ample, after
plants in China restart after maintenance. Though there
were turnarounds expected outside of China, supply is
estimated to be ample based on the Q1 demand.
Availability was also likely to extend out of Asia, from
the Middle East and Europe.
ASIA
Acetone demand in Q1 is likely to be subdued in the
lead-up to Lunar New Year in early February. Although
some restocking activities are likely in February after the
festivities, the recent volatile price movements in the
upstream benzene and propylene markets were likely to
keep players on the sidelines.
US
US acetone supply continued to be long in the fourth
quarter of 2018. A major US producer completed a
planned turnaround during the period, but length
Increase
continued as demand began to wane on seasonal
factors. Imports priced well under the domestic market
added to the supply glut as material was long in all
regions. Supply length put downward pressure on Constant
prices in small-buyer truck and rail markets due to
competition from imports.
Decrease
Mixed
US
US acetone demand started strong in the fourth quarter
of 2018 but waned as seasonal factors took hold and
year-end de-stocking occurred. As through most of the
year, supply outstripped demand. Imports became
increasingly competitive in the quarter as prices
continued to drop in Asia, pushing acetone into the
mid-20s cents/lb for imports. The spread between
domestic material and imports narrowed on falling
costs, but remained significant enough for buyers to
look to imports where contracts allowed.
US
US acetone supply is expected to remain long at least
through the first quarter of 2019, if not beyond. Market
sentiment is that producers may cut back their rates
somewhat after acetone losses mounted throughout
2018 to help ease acetone length, despite continued
strong demand for co-product phenol.
US
US acetone demand is expected to pick up in the first
quarter of 2019 as major downstream methyl
methacrylate (MMA) producers return from planned
turnarounds. Another major MMA producer postponed
its planned maintenance until March, which will impact
demand at the end of the quarter. Economic
uncertainty clouds the demand outlook.
 BENZENE
Q4 2018 - Market Review
Supply
EUROPE
Availability of benzene in Europe in the fourth quarter
was ample, with inventories still high in Europe and
globally. Supply disruption downstream at a Dutch
styrene facility in December added to the length in the
benzene sector. In addition, de-stocking activity was
taking place.
Demand
EUROPE
The European benzene market saw active buying
interest in the early part of Q4 2018, but towards the
end of the year it slowed on de-stocking measures and
because of an unexpected outage at a Dutch styrene
facility in December.
Q1 2019 - Market Outlook
Supply
EUROPE
Availability of benzene in the first quarter of 2019 is
likely to be less lengthy. Derivative consumption is
expected to pick up as players downstream undertake
traditional re-stocking activity after the de-stocking at
2018 year-end, which will create some pull on supply.
Inventories are expected to stay long in Europe and
globally.
Demand
EUROPE
Europe benzene derivative consumption is expected to
pick up in Q1 2019 as players downstream undertake
traditional re-stocking activity after the de-stocking at
2018 year-end.
ASIA
Supply in Asia remained ample in the fourth quarter.
Inventories along the eastern China shore tanks grew
from the low 130,000s tonne in the first half of
November to nearly 170,000 tonnes in year end. Despite
some plant maintenance in NE Asia, supply in the
region stayed ample with sellers seeking outlets in Asia.
The closed spot arbitrage window to the US meant that
most cargoes continued to circulate in the region.
Buyers were mostly unhurried on spot purchases as
stocks were perceived as ample.
ASIA
Demand for benzene declined in the fourth quarter
with maintenance shutdowns in downstream styrene
and other derivatives. The spot east-west arbitrage
window remained mostly closed with US demand for
Asia parcels staying lacklustre. Buying momentum also
slowed towards the year end with the holiday lull
dampening trade. Market players were busy with term
contract negotiations for 2019 volumes with spot trade
tapering off. End users across Asia were mostly well
stocked with small appetite for spot cargoes.
ASIA
Supply in the first quarter is expected to lengthen as
maintenance at regional plants will mostly complete by
December. Fewer turnarounds have been planned for in
the first quarter, which could further contribute to
supply in Asia. The still closed spot east-west arbitrage
window to the US could result in more parcels
circulating in the region.
ASIA
Demand for benzene is expected to stay tepid in the
first quarter as markets in the region will close for the
Lunar New Year holidays in early February. Downstream
markets such as styrene, phenol and caprolactam are
usually slow in the first quarter before kicking into
higher gear in the second. With the US-China trade war
unresolved, end-users are expected to remain in a
cautious mode, which would continue to weigh on
trade.
US
US benzene supply remained long throughout the
fourth quarter on sufficient availability from Asia along
with high refinery operating rates within the US.
Inventory levels have been persistently high through
most of 2018 and remained high throughout the fourth
quarter. Operating rates at selective toluene
disproportionation (STDP) units trended lower near the
end of the quarter as prices for coproduct paraxylene
(PX) declined with the low season for that product while
benzene traded at a discount to feedstock toluene.
US
US benzene demand was mostly steady in the fourth
quarter. Styrene exports slowed in the second half of
the quarter, weighing down incremental demand for
benzene. Styrene is the largest benzene derivative,
accounting for around half of US benzene consumption.
Demand for phenol was strong in the quarter while
some regional shutdowns depressed demand from the
methyl di-p phenylene isocyanate (MDI) sector.
US
US benzene supply is expected to remain long in the
first quarter as benzene supply from Asia is expected to
remain sufficient for most of 2019. Refinery operating
rates are likely to be scaled back during the slow season
for gasoline, which is a time when many refineries
schedule their turnarounds. Selective toluene Increase
disproportionation (STDP) units are expected to
maintain low operations as seasonally slow demand for
paraxylene (PX) along with benzene remaining at a Constant
discount to feedstock toluene will discourage
operations at these units.
Decrease
US Mixed
The first quarter is typically the heavy turnaround
season for the US styrene sector, which is likely to
depress benzene consumption during the quarter.
Styrene plants have experienced significant production
cuts in the first quarter in each of the past two years.
Demand for several other benzene derivatives such as
phenol and methyl di-p phenylene isocyanate (MDI) are
experiencing seasonal slow periods for demand in the
first quarter.
 CAPROLACTAM
Q4 2018 - Market Review
Supply
EUROPE
European caprolactam (capro) supply was mostly
balanced in Q4 2018, although availability increased
towards the end of the year after a seasonal slowdown
in demand. There were some planned and unplanned
production issues in Europe, but the impact on
availability was manageable. Critically low water levels
on the Rhine caused some temporary logistical issues.
Demand
EUROPE
European caprolactam (capro) demand started Q4 2018
in a steadier position, but decreased - in line with
seasonal expectations - towards the end of the year.
Concerns about weaker automotive demand have been
noted across the commodities markets, including
Europe's downstream nylon 6 sector.
Q1 2019 - Market Outlook
Supply
EUROPE
European caprolactam (capro) supply is likely to remain
balanced in Q1 2019, although much will depend on
the pick up in re-stocking activity after the Christmas
break. Pricing pressure in the upstream benzene market
will be a key feature in monthly contract discussions.
Demand
EUROPE
European caprolactam (capro) demand is expected to
increase in Q1 2019 as market players re-stock after the
Christmas break. The longer-term outlook is unclear due
to macroeconomic and political uncertainty in the
wider market.
ASIA US
Caprolactam (capro) supply in northeast Asia was long No US Report.
for much of Q4 2108 due to weak nylon sales. In
domestic China, some producers announced turnovers
in an attempt to control an oversupply in the market,
but failed as restarted plants continued to be run at
high operating rates. Import supply outstripped
Increase
demand and sellers found it difficult to sell their cargoes
amid weak interest and consistently low bids for parcels.
Constant
Decrease
ASIA US Mixed
Demand for spot caprolactam (capro) took a dip in Q4 No US Report.
2018 after the downstream nylon market was hit hard
by the warmer winter. This resulted in fewer trades done
compared with Q3. The first few weeks of October were
the only ones to see an increase in demand as buyers
replenished stocks in anticipation of a cold winter.
When this failed to materialise, sales dived.
ASIA US
Caprolactam (capro) supply is forecast to be ample for No US Report.
most of Q1 2019 as the majority of plants in the region
are running at high rates. However, the Lunar New Year
holiday will see many in China and Taiwan close for a
week in February, which should rein in the current
oversupply.
ASIA US
Demand in Q1 2019 is not expected to pick up until No US Report.
after the Lunar New Year as much of the region will be
on holiday. Most players will attempt to hold as little
inventory as possible in the run up to the holiday, and
buying will remain tepid until then.
 CYCLOHEXANE

Q4 2018 - Market Review

Supply

EUROPE ASIA US

European cyclohexane (CX) supply was lengthy at the No Asia Report. No US Report.
start of Q4 and remained ample towards the end of the
year. A number of planned and unplanned downstream
outages lowered CX demand in October and November.
Low Rhine water levels disrupted logistics via barges
and tightened truck supply, causing delays to deliveries.
Once Rhine water levels improved, demand and market
activity increased. European CX supply was healthy as
the year ended, with the temporary rise in demand
having little effect on overall conditions.

Demand

EUROPE ASIA US

Planned and unplanned outages downstream resulted No Asia Report. No US Report.

in lower demand for European cyclohexane (CX) for
most of Q4. Unplanned outages were linked to low
Rhine water levels which disrupted production at some
German-based plants. Once water levels rose, market
activity increased slightly as production returned to
normal. Demand typically decreases in December due
to end of year de-stocking, however there was not
much impact from this on the market this year.

Q1 2019 - Market Outlook

Supply

EUROPE ASIA US

European cyclohexane (CX) supply is expected to No Asia Report. No US Report.

decrease on the back of higher demand in Q1. Market
conditions were lengthy in late 2018, but are likely to
become more balanced after a traditional uptick in
demand takes place in January. Rhine water levels will
be watched closely over the quarter. Water levels were Increase

steady in early January but should they fall, logistics

may become constrained again.
Constant

Decrease

Demand
Mixed

EUROPE ASIA US

European cyclohexane (CX) demand is expected to No Asia Report. No US Report.

increase in Q1, with January demand traditionally
higher due to re-stocking. The outlook for the
polyamide chain is positive for Q1 following improve-
ments in Rhine water levels in late December.
Expectations for higher demand led to the CX first
quarter delta contract price increasing by €5/tonne.
 DIMETHYL TEREPHTHALATE

Q4 2018 - Market Review

Supply

EUROPE ASIA US

European dimethyl terephtalate (DMT) contracts rely on No Asia Report. No US Report.

a formula with upstream paraxylene (PX) monthly
contract settlements and quarterly methanol prices,
which moved down over the quarter. Methanol supply
initially improved in Q4 2018, but then tightened in
December following a fire at Europe’s largest plant. In
Increase
the meantime, the PX market was more balanced
despite remaining structurally short. Low Rhine water
levels also impacted on the supply of both products.
Constant

Demand Decrease

EUROPE ASIA US Mixed

Paraxylene (PX) demand slowed during Q4 2018 on No Asia Report. No US Report.

seasonably lower downstream demand. Demand was
further limited by planned and unplanned shutdowns
at polyethylene terephthalate (PET) and terephthalic
acid (PTA) plants. Methanol demand was healthy
despite logistical issues caused by low water levels on
the river Rhine.

Q1 2019 - Market Outlook

Supply

EUROPE ASIA US

Upstream paraxylene (PX) supply is expected to No Asia Report. No US Report.

improve in Q1 2018. Several production issues are due
to be resolved during the quarter, although the market
will continue to remain structurally short. A structural-
ly-short methanol market is expected be impacted by a
fire at Europe’s largest plant in late December. However,
OCI's BioMCN mothballed plant is expected to reopen.

Demand

EUROPE ASIA US

Demand for upstream methanol and paraxylene (PX) is No Asia Report. No US Report.
expected to be healthy through Q1 2018 after a
seasonal slowdown in December. Demand for European
polyethylene terephthalate (PET) in Q1 2019 may not be
as high as in previous years, if customers have
committed to buying a lot of material out of territory.
 ETHYL BENZENE
Q4 2018 - Market Review
Supply
EUROPE
Availability of European ethylbenzene in the fourth
quarter was unconstrained, given the ample overall
availability of benzene, ethylene and styrene during
that time. This is despite an unplanned outage at a
styrene facility.
Demand
EUROPE
Demand for ethylbenzene in Europe slowed in the
fourth quarter, amid wide-range de-stocking measures
in the benzene, styrene and ethylene markets that are
traditional at year-end. Global macroeconomic
uncertainty also added to the slower consumption
levels.
Q1 2019 - Market Outlook
Supply
EUROPE
Availability of ethylbenzene in Europe in the first
quarter is expected to be less long than it was in the
fourth quarter, based on expectations of increased
demand for ethylene, benzene and styrene during that
period. These markets will also be preparing for a series
of planned spring maintenance turnarounds.
Demand
EUROPE
Demand for ethylbenzene in Europe is expected to tick
up in the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter,
with buying requirements for benzene, styrene and
ethylene likely to be healthier as players look to re-stock
after the traditional year-end de-stocking at the close of
2018.
ASIA US
No Asia Report. US supply of ethylbenzene was good throughout the
fourth quarter of 2018, as upstream benzene
production was good due to high operating rates at
refineries, which produce benzene as a byproduct of
gasoline production.
ASIA US
No Asia Report. US demand for ethylbenzene was steady in the fourth
quarter of 2018, tracking downstream styrene demand.
US ethylbenzene is produced mainly for the manufac-
ture of styrene. Downstream styrene markets include
acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene (ABS) and expandable
polystyrene (EPS). China’s ADD ruling against the US,
South Korea and Taiwan led to reduced exports from
the US to China during 2017 and 2018, which led to
exports to countries like the Netherlands and Turkey in
2018.
ASIA US
No Asia Report. US supply of ethylbenzene should be ample in the first
quarter of 2019, as upstream supply of benzene is
expected to remain long on imports from Asia. Refinery
operating rates are likely to be scaled back during the
slow season for gasoline, which is a time when many
refineries schedule their turnarounds. Refineries
produce benzene as a byproduct of gasoline
production. Increase
Constant
ASIA US Decrease
No Asia Report. Demand for ethylbenzene is likely to be healthy in the
first quarter of 2019, as that is typically a period of Mixed
heavy styrene exports by the US. Ethylbenzene is used
primarily for the production of styrene. The majority of
shipments will move to Mexico, as it is by far the largest
destination for US exports.
 EXPANDABLE POLYSTYRENE
Q4 2018 - Market Review
Supply
EUROPE
Supply in the European expandable polystyrene (EPS)
market in Q4 2018 tightened considerably. Rhine river
levels fell to a record low in early Q4, leading to major
producer BASF having to cut production and cancel
orders throughout the quarter, tightening supply of key
grades, especially for insulation material. Adding to this,
an erosion in feedstock costs spurred buying appetite,
as buyers engaged in pre-buying and restocking
activity, adding to the tightening conditions.
Demand
EUROPE
Demand in the European expandable polystyrene (EPS)
market surged through much of Q4 2018. Upstream
styrene monomer prices eroded to lows not seen in
almost two years during the November-December
period and buyers engaged in heavy pre-buying and
re-stocking activity to take advantage of the falling
costs. Adding to this, mild winter weather conditions
compared to last year in much of Europe spurred on
consumption for insulation grade material from the
building and construction sector late into Q4.
Q1 2019 - Market Outlook
Supply
EUROPE
European expandable polystyrene (EPS) supply is
anticipated to improve in Q1 2019, as Rhine river levels
rise to typical levels for the time of year and ease
upstream logistical constraints. Most expect BASF’s
production woes to be over by January and Trinseo’s
styrene plant is also anticipated to be operational again
by mid-January.
Demand
EUROPE
Demand in the European expandable polystyrene (EPS)
market is unclear for Q1 2019. Some expect poor
weather conditions and December pre-buying and
re-stocking activity to limit buying interest in January,
while some sellers expect ongoing low prices to ensure
order entries remain healthy for the time of year.
ASIA
Supply remained stable in the region on a lack of
turnarounds as well as no fresh capacity during that
period of time. Inventory levels in China were high at
both downstream end-user plants as well as producer
plants due to a lack of buying appetite on a seasonal lull
in demand. Overall operating rates in northeast Asia
(excluding China) were largely healthy due to positive
margins with feedstock styrene monomer during the
last quarter of the year.
ASIA
Buying appetite in the region, especially northeast Asia
is weak due to an overall slowdown in the construction
and packaging sector during the winter season. No
fresh downstream capacities during the last quarter, as
well as high inventory at downstream factories did not
motivate market participants to actively purchase at all.
Block and packaging demand were both very muted
and most market participants were not motivated to
replenish inventory to cover their requirments at all.
ASIA
Supply in the region, especially from Vietnam is
expected to be thinner due to a scheduled turnaround
at a major supplier’s plant. Another supplier in Taiwan is
also expected to have a scheduled turnaround during
the Lunar New Year and this is also expected to weigh
on overall supply into the region.
ASIA
Demand in the region is expected to stay soft as
consumption continues to slow down on lacklustre
sentiment in the downstream construction as well as
manufacturing sector. Some market participants are
hopeful that trade may pick up post-Lunar New Year as
factories would be back in operations and keen to
purchase material.
US
US supply was steady during the fourth quarter, with no
turnarounds or outages taking place in the market.
Mexico is by far the largest supplier of PS to the US
market, supplying over half of all imported material to
the US during the first 11 months of 2018. The US
imports slightly more EPS that it exports. US EPS prices
Increase
will likely roll over in January on mixed feedstock
benzene and styrene prices. Benzene contract and spot
prices continue to weaken, while styrene spot prices
Constant
have rebounded since early December.
Decrease
Mixed
US
Demand dropped further in December, after US and
Canada EPS demand in November was down by 2.9%
from the same period in 2017, according to the
American Chemistry Council (ACC). Demand during the
first 11 months of 2018 was down by 2.6% from the
corresponding period in 2017. Exports in that
timeframe were down by 8.1%. Demand for shape EPS
was down by 1%, and block EPS demand was up by
2.3%, from January through November, year on year.
US
Supply in the US EPS market should remain steady in
the first quarter, with no turnarounds on the horizon.
The US is a net EPS importer, and Mexico, Canada, the
Bahamas and South Korea will supply the lion’s share of
EPS to the US market in the first quarter. Import
volumes from South Korea could be contingent upon
buying interest from the China market.
US
Demand should improve in the first quarter, following
lower demand in the fourth quarter. The US EPS market
entered the first quarter seeking price stability, after
spot prices dropped in November and December. EPS
prices this month will follow the direction of key
feedstocks benzene and styrene. EPS demand in the
first quarter will largely resemble demand in the first
quarter of 2018, with packaging and construction
continuing to comprise the largest markets.
 MALEIC ANHYDRIDE
Q4 2018 - Market Review
Supply
EUROPE
The European maleic anhydride (MA) market saw steady
supply in October and most of November, but there
were then a cluster of production issues heard.
Hungary’s MOL had an unexpected one week outage in
the second half of November and on 26 November,
Polynt had to shut its Ravenna, Italy unit due to
unexpected issues. This resulted in a force majeure
declaration on 5 December, which remain in place at
year-end, though the unit is understood to be ramping
up rates. There were also some smaller supply
constraints from Austria’s ESIM and Bosnia’s GIKIL.
Demand
EUROPE
The demand pattern for MA in the fourth quarter was
rather mixed. Many described it as a steady buying
pattern with the usual slow down to year end as many
buyers look to close with low inventories. However,
there were also comments stating that demand was
strong, though this was in the minority.
Q1 2019 - Market Outlook
Supply
EUROPE
Availability of MA is expected to be good in Q1. There
are no planned maintenance works due to take place
and further imports are scheduled to arrive from Asia in
February and March. If Polynt is unable to run its
Ravenna plant well and lift force majeure, the situation
could change somewhat.
Demand
EUROPE
Typically demand is flat in the first couple of months,
with the peak consumption due to commence during
March. However, if further production hiccups take
place, this could see customers having to turn to
non-traditional sources.
ASIA
Some maleic anhydride (MA) producers in Asia were
focussed on catering to domestic demand in their
respective markets during the quarter. As a result, they
were not keen to export cargoes into southeast Asia.
Additionally, a few producers were diverting their
cargoes to Europe, the US and Middle East – where
netbacks are better compared with Asia. There was no
scheduled maintenance during the quarter. As such,
supply was largely stable.
ASIA
Demand from downstream unsaturated polyester resins
(UPR) was weak during the quarter. Consequently, some
buyers were not keen to stockpile cargoes amid softer
MA prices arising from a slide in feedstock butane
prices. Typically, butane prices are firmer in the fourth
quarter due to a surge in demand during the winter
months in the northern hemisphere. This year, prices
were softer month-on-month amid volatility in crude oil
values. This prompted buyers to procure on a need-to
basis.
ASIA
Some producers in Asia will continue focussing on
catering to domestic demand in their respective
markets during the quarter. As a result, they are not
keen to export cargoes into southeast Asia. Additionally,
a few producers will continue to divert their cargoes to
Europe, US and Middle East – where netbacks are better
compared with Asia.
ASIA
Some buyers said they are trying to deplete their
existing inventories and may not have to procure spot
volumes until end-January. Demand for downstream
UPR is expected to remain lacklustre on weak
consumption. As a result, MA buyers may remain on the
sidelines during the quarter.
US
US maleic anhydride (MA) supply lengthened as
maintenance activity from the previous quarter
wrapped up. Product was also available as demand
slowed down after the end of high season, bringing the
markets into balance. INEOS Enterprises completed the
acquisition of the chemical intermediates business of
Flint Hills Resources, known as Flint Hills Resources
Joliet. INEOS Joliet will manufacture MA and other
products at its facility near Chicago, Illinois.
US
Demand into downstream unsaturated polyester resins
(UPR) and other sectors tapered off due to seasonality.
Feedstock butane costs steadily decreased in tandem
with downward momentum across the energy complex,
defying the usual seasonal trends. Butane prices
generally move up during winter as demand gets
stronger for butane. It is used as an octane additive in
winter gasoline blends and for home heating.
US
The markets are largely expected to remain steady and
balanced. Consumption could soften amid bearish
energy and economic fundamentals. Given the US
feedstock advantage for natural gas liquids (NGLs) like
butane due to hydraulic fracturing of shale formations,
pressure from overseas sellers will be soft. Increase
Constant
Decrease
US Mixed
Seasonal demand is expected to remain slow. Prices
could continue to face downward pressure due to
healthy production and lower values for feedstock
butane. Resolution of the US-China trade dispute would
improve macroeconomic conditions, and in turn
improve demand growth in key downstream markets.
 METHYL DIPHENYL DIISOCYANATE
Q4 2018 - Market Review
Supply
EUROPE
Europe crude methyl di-p-phenylene isocyanate (MDI)
supply in the fourth quarter was high as low demand
boosted availability. The pure MDI market, on the other
hand, was structurally tight in multiple months in 2018.
Some producers opted to use more product captively
and consequently left less material in the market.
However, as consumption dropped towards the end of
the year, pure MDI availability increased.
Demand
EUROPE
Consumption of Europe crude methyl di-p-phenylene
isocyanate (MDI) was lower year on year throughout
2018. Higher pricing in 2017 caused end users to
choose alternative downstream materials, which
reduced purchasing interest for crude MDI. Demand
then lowered further at the end of the year due to
seasonal trends such as de-stocking. This December
slowdown also occurred in the pure MDI market with
the downstream footwear industry particularly low in
demand in late 2018.
Q1 2019 - Market Outlook
Supply
EUROPE
Future Europe crude methyl di-p-phenylene isocyanate
(MDI) availability is dependent on if consumption will
pick up or not. In 2018 low demand contributed to
lengthy supply. Pure MDI fundamentals will also be
reliant on order book volumes in 2019 as some sellers
decided to use more material captively in 2018, which
led to structural tightness.
Demand
EUROPE
Weather in early 2019 will be a key factor behind Europe
crude methyl di-p-phenylene isocyanate (MDI)
purchasing interest. Colder temperatures typically
reduce downstream construction activity. How pure
MDI demand will fare will also be based on if order book
volumes in the downstream footwear industry pick up
after quieter consumption in late 2018.
ASIA
MDI supply in Asia tightened in Q4, due to plant
maintenance closures, involving more than 1m
tonnes/year of total production capacity. Another
340,000 tonne/year plant also operated at lower rates
much of the quarter due to shortage of feedstock.
ASIA
MDI demand was sluggish, especially in China, as
requirements from key downstream sectors like
refrigerator/air-conditioner manufacturing and
construction slowed down significantly due to
uncertainties generated by the simmering US-China
trade feuds.
ASIA
MDI supply is expected to increase, as plants previously
shut in Q4 for turnarounds will return to normal
operations in the quarter. There are no further plant
maintenances scheduled for Q1 2019.
ASIA
Demand is likely to stay low in the quarter, given that
many factories in China typically scale down or shut
completely during the extended Lunar New Year
celebrations, which will take place in February this year.
US
US methyl di-p phenylene isocyanate (MDI) supply
remained long during the fourth quarter. Asian
producers maintained elevated allocation levels to the
North American market as demand and pricing in North
America remained favourable relative to Asia. Polymeric
MDI (PMDI) supply was long while monomeric MDI
Increase
(MMDI) availability was tight, resulting in a widening
spread between MMDI and PMDI prices. Several
domestic plants experienced turnarounds in the
Constant
quarter, but this did not result in any significant
tightening in overall supply levels.
Decrease
Mixed
US
Demand for MDI and polyurethane systems were
healthy in 2018 and remained solid in the fourth
quarter. Seasonal slowness in the construction sector
late in the quarter weighed down demand for some
MDI applications and affected MMDI demand in
particular. Automotive demand was slower in 2018
compared with 2017 although this had been
anticipated by the industry.
US
US MDI availability is expected to remain sufficient as
depressed prices and demand in Asia are likely to
continue to pressure Asian producers to maintain high
allocation levels to the North American market. MMDI
supply, which was tight throughout most of 2018, is
beginning to shift back into balance with one
producer’s plant heard to be operating at better rates.
US
US MDI demand is expected to be weighed down by
seasonal factors in the first quarter, although the
fundamental demand outlook for both MDI and
downstream polyurethane systems remains strong in
North America. The construction sector, which is a
major consumer of MDI, experiences seasonal weakness
in the winter months in the northern hemisphere.
 ORTHOXYLENE
Q4 2018 - Market Review
Supply
EUROPE
Availability of European orthoxylene (OX) improved in
the last quarter of 2018 as a result of the historically low
levels on the river Rhine, which disrupted OX deliveries
to buyers in Europe. It was logistically impossible to
deliver product to some downstream producers, while
others chose to hold orders due to increasing freight
rates. This, in turn improved OX availability after a long
period of tightness. German producer BP was in lengthy
maintenance and not selling product in the fourth
quarter of the year, but availability improved
nevertheless.
Demand
EUROPE
Demand for European OX was poor in Q4 2018 as a
result of a low season in the downstream phthalic
anhydride (PA) market. Two PA plant maintenance
closures, carried out by Lanxess and Ostend Basic
Chemicals (OBC), were separately limiting OX demand
as of late November. The logistic constraints posed by
the low levels of the river Rhine led to two ongoing
force majeures in the downstream plasticizers market,
by producers BASF and Evonik, which too limited
demand for OX in the last quarter of 2018.
Q1 2019 - Market Outlook
Supply
EUROPE
The availability of European orthoxylene (OX) is
expected to improve in the first quarter of 2019,
following tightness through most of 2018. Supply of OX
was limited by a number of production and logistics
issues, including a force majeure followed by a lengthy
maintenance at BP’s plant in Germany, as well as
historically low levels of the river Rhine in the fourth
quarter of the year. All of those have been or are
expected to be resolved by the start of 2019.
Demand
EUROPE
The outlook for the OX market in the first few months of
2019 is bearish with downstream phthalic anhydride
(PA) demand not expected to pick until the spring
season. Two ongoing PA plant maintenance closures
are separately set to limit OX demand in January.
ASIA
In the key China market, Orthoxylene (OX) is in
oversupply. As a result, key domestic producers lowered
their OX list prices towards the end of the quarter.
However, this did little to spur buying interest as most
buyers were meeting their requirements with
contractual volumes. Shore tank inventories in East
China remained largely stable during the quarter.
Meanwhile, most producers still prefer to produce more
paraxylene (PX) compared with co-product OX. There
has been more demand for the former, and hence it is
more lucrative.v
ASIA
Trading activities in the key China market were fairly
subdued as interest remained limited due to high
domestic inventories. As a result, discussions and
interest in imported OX product remained low among
Chinese buyers. Meanwhile, most buyers in southeast
Asia and India were relying on contractual volumes to
meet their OX requirements as producers have been
producing more paraxylene (PX) compared with
co-product OX. There has been more demand for the
former and hence, it is more lucrative.
ASIA
In the key China market, OX supply is expected to
remain stable. Meanwhile, most producers still prefer to
produce paraxylene (PX) compared with co-product OX.
Outside of China, some buyers are looking for spot
cargoes to supplement their contractual volumes.
However, producers are only offering OX on contractual
basis and do not have additional quantities to offer in
the spot market.
ASIA
Trading activities in the key China market is anticipated
to remain muted amid high domestic inventories.
Buyers indicated that they are not keen to import OX as
key domestic producers have been lowering their list
prices for OX. Outside China, demand for OX is expected
to increase as some buyers have already started
enquiring for spot cargoes to supplement their existing
OX volumes.
US
US orthoxylene (OX) supply was constant. Increased
demand for feedstock mixed xylenes (MX) during the
latter half of the quarter put upward pressure on OX
prices but did not significantly diminish supply. Strong
MX demand was driven by robust demand for
paraxylene (PX) in Asia caused by production issues
amid peak polyester demand season in the region.
US
US OX demand decreased in the fourth quarter.
Demand is seasonal and strongest during the late
second and early third quarters for the production of
downstream phthalic anhydride (PA) in the production
of plasticizers in the compounding in PVC. Demand
began to wane in the third quarter and fell in the fourth
quarter alongside decreased demand for mixed xylenes
(MX) and lower crude prices. MX demand fell amid
softer gasoline demand during the winter gasoline
season.
US
Orthoxylene (OX) supply is likely to remain stable in the
first quarter despite expectations that mixed xylenes
(MX) supplies will tighten during refinery maintenance
season. Producers are covered on supply and prepared
for the increase in demand as the market rebounds Increase
from seasonal downturn in the previous quarter.
Constant
Decrease
Mixed
US
Orthoxylene (OX) demand is likely to increase in the first
quarter following seasonal downturn in the fourth
quarter. Demand typically picks up in the first and
second quarters, and peaks during the summer amid
construction season given its use in the production of
downstream phthalic anhydride (PA) in the PVC chain.
 PARAXYLENE
Q4 2018 - Market Review
Supply
EUROPE
In Q4, the supply-demand balance improved in the
European paraxylene (PX) market, even though it
remained structurally short. Supply throughout the
quarter was limited by a lengthy maintenance at the BP
plant in Gelsenkirchen, Germany and historically low
water levels of the Rhine. However, this was balanced
out by lower demand as logistical challenges meant
that some buyers failed to receive deliveries. Spot and
contact prices fell through the quarter on the back of
the improving product balance and a downward trend
in the more liquid Asian market.
Demand
EUROPE
Demand in the downstream polyethylene terephthalate
(PET) market was seasonably low in Q4 2018, and
further impacted by a force majeure declaration from
Indorama Ventures at the end of November. A few
planned an unplanned closures in the purified
terephthalic acid (PTA) sector during the quarter also
limited demand for European paraxylene (PX). This
included a force majeure at Poland’s PKN Orlen in
November and maintenance closures at Indorama’s
plants in the Netherlands and Portugal.
Q1 2019 - Market Outlook
Supply
EUROPE
The availability of European paraxylene (PX) is expected
to improve in the first quarter of 2019, but the product
is expected to remain structurally short in the near term
future. Supply of PX was tight in 2018 due to a number
of production and logistics issues, including a force
majeure followed by a lengthy maintenance at BP’s
plant in Germany, as well as historically low levels of the
river Rhine in the fourth quarter of the year. All of those
have been or are expected to be resolved by the start of
2019.
Demand
EUROPE
Downstream demand is expected to pick up in Q1 2019
after the seasonal slowdown in December. Paraxylene
(PX) consumption in Europe increased following the
start up of Indorama’s 700,000 tonne/year purified
terephthalic acid (PTA) plant in Sines, Portugal in July.
The market has become structurally short as a result,
and is expected to remain so in the near future.
ASIA
Asian paraxylene (PX) supply increased during the
quarter, following restarts at previously idled units.
Indonesia’s Trans Pacific Petrochemical Indonesia (TPPI)
successfully restarted its 550,000 tonne/year PX unit at
the beginning of Q4 2018. The unit had been shut since
2014. Elsewhere, China’s Fuhaichuang Petrochemical,
formerly Dragon Aromatics (Zhangzhou), resumed
production at its 800,000 tonne/year PX line on 25
December. The complex was shut after a fire in April
2015. There were also a limited number of scheduled
maintenances during the period, which resulted in
weakening intermonth spreads.
ASIA
Around 740,000 tonnes of paraxylene (PX) demand was
lost from the key China market due to lower operating
rates at downstream purified terephthalic acid (PTA)
facilities. Demand for PX fell because production
margins at PTA facilities were squeezed at the
beginning of the quarter. Operating rates at Chinese
PTA facilities stood at 75% during the quarter,
compared with 82% in the previous quarter. Demand
from the key China market was also lower due to rising
import costs caused by a weakening of the yuan against
the US dollar.
ASIA
The supply of paraxylene (PX) in Asia is expected to
gradually lengthen on weaker demand amid a limited
scheduled maintenance programme. In addition,
China’s Fuhaichuang Petrochemical is expected to
restart its second 800,000 tonne/year PX line during the
quarter. The company recently restarted its first 800,000
tonne/year PX line at the end of 2018. Production
margins for PX are still healthy, mainly due to the wide
price gap between PX and naphtha. This should entice
existing PX units to continue operating at full tilt.
ASIA
Demand is expected to be relatively soft because the
Lunar New Year holiday takes place in the middle of the
quarter. In addition, an uncertain macroeconomic
environment is likely to keep buyers at bay. End users
are unlikely to build up stocks due to the cloudy outlook
for upstream energy prices.
US
US paraxylene (PX) supply improved in Q4 amid weaker
downstream purified terephthalic acid (PTA) and
polyester demand. PTA demand was lower amid weaker
margins in the key China market while demand for
polyester fibres and polyethylene terephthalate (PET)
was weaker amid a downturn in the global economy.
Increase
Weaker demand and the wide spread between US
mixed xylenes (MX) and PX prices, supported
on-purpose PX production via MX throughout the
Constant
quarter.
Decrease
Mixed
US
US paraxylene (PX) demand softened in Q4 amid weak
demand in the key downstream markets. Purified
terephthalic acid (PTA) and polyester demand was
softer because of depressed demand in the key China
market. Margins for PTA were weak amid a seasonal
downturn which discouraged polyester fibres
production. In the US, polyethylene terephthalate (PET)
also experienced a seasonal downturn, which limited
production. Demand also softened with weaker mixed
xylenes (MX) demand amid the winter gasoline season.
US
Supply is expected to tighten in Q1 amid a refinery
maintenance season which should put upward
pressure on prices in early 2019. Supply will also be
tighter following the closure of Chevron Phillips
Chemical’s PX plant in Pascagoula, Mississippi. The plant
produces 495,000 tonnes/year, representing over 10%
of North American capacity.
US
Demand for paraxylene (PX) is likely to increase in Q1
amid the loss of CP Chem’s PX plant as of the end of
2018. The US is likely to become increasingly dependent
on imports from Asia to produce PTA for the polyester
chain, while the recent loss in capacity may put upward
pressure on prices.
 PHTHALIC ANHYDRIDE
Q4 2018 - Market Review
Supply
EUROPE
The European phthalic anhydride (PA) market
encountered some unexpected issues in the fourth
quarter due to the historically low water levels on the
Rhine. There were also two planned catalyst changes
that were scheduled for Lanxess and Ostend Basic
Chemicals at the end of the quarter. Despite these
issues, overall the market was described as balanced
and steady from Q3, given that there had been a
number of maintenance schedules in Q3.
Demand
EUROPE
Despite some curtailments in the supply, demand was
covered though the fourth quarter. All in all it was
balanced and most demand was covered by contractual
agreements. There was some fresh spot business in
mid-November when the low Rhine levels resulted in
some difficulties to supply. December saw the usual end
of year slow down.
Q1 2019 - Market Outlook
Supply
EUROPE
Provided Lanxess and Ostend Basic Chemicals resume
production as planned in the early days of January,
supply is expected to be ample in the first quarter. There
are no planned outages scheduled for this period.
Demand
EUROPE
Demand will traditionally strengthen towards the peak
consumption period from March onwards. Downstream
plasticizers demand is expected to remain flat to
marginally firmer in line with GDP in Europe. The vast
majority of PA requirements are expected to be covered
under contract.
ASIA
Phthalic anhydride (PA) Supply was tight at the start of
the quarter amid scheduled maintenance at key PA
plants. Key producers in India were only catering to
domestic and contractual customers during the quarter.
Demand from India and China slumped in the middle of
the quarter, prompting producers in these regions to
divert cargoes into southeast Asia. However, most
buyers in southeast Asia preferred to rely on their
regular sources in the region and northeast Asia.
ASIA
Demand in southeast Asia was mixed during the
quarter. Buyers were actively stockpiling cargoes in
September and October on concerns that feedstock
orthoxylene (OX) prices would rise on tight supply. As a
result, PA prices in southeast Asia were on a steady
uptrend early in the quarter. However, prices started
decreasing in November when demand from India
waned. Elsewhere, demand from the key China market
remained subdued during the quarter.
ASIA
Supply is anticipated to be balanced in Q1 as no plant
maintenance has been announced. On the other hand,
some producers in China are considering exporting
naphthalene-based PA into southeast Asia. The region
may also see additional supply from India as domestic
demand softens.
ASIA
Demand in the key China market is anticipated to
remain muted. While some buyers continue to import
cargoes, China has increasingly become self-sufficient in
its PA supply. In southeast Asia, demand is expected to
remain stable, supported by downstream plasticizers.
Demand from India is expected to remain tepid amid
ample domestic supply.
US
There have been no major production issues in the
market that impacted supply of pthahlic anhydride (PA).
Decreases in prices of feedstock orthoxylenes (OX) in
December following a significant drop in crude prices
have pressured the PA market.
US
Demand of phthalic anhydride (PA) faced a slight drop
off through the fourth quarter on the seasonal lull.
Buyers have been regularly able to secure product to
meet their needs although less buyers have stated they
are needing to secure product in the first place.
US
Supply of phthalic anhydride (PA) is expected to pick up
in the spring, as producers face more incentive to
produce at higher rates in order to meet the increase in
demand. The first quarter is typically when producers
start to face an uptick in orders. However, pressure from
the crude market could remain, which would place
additional pressure on producers. Increase
Constant
Decrease
US
Mixed
Demand of phthalic anhydride (PA) is expected to come
out of the seasonal drop off late in Q1 and buyers will
be encouraged to secure more product. A strong
economy could also give buyers further incentive to
purchase more, however weak crude prices may negate
this impact.
 PLASTICIZERS
Q4 2018 - Market Review
Supply
EUROPE
There were ongoing pockets of supply limitations in the
European plasticizers market, with BASF remaining on
force majeure out of Ludwigshafen, Germany, for
diisononyl phthalate (DINP) and diisononyl cyclohexane
dicarboxylate (DINCH) from 3 August. The low water
levels on the Rhine saw a second declaration for DINP
from Evonik’s Marl, Germany, site from 31 October until
12 December. Allocation for both players was heard to
be between 50-60% of regular volumes.
Demand
EUROPE
October demand was fairly consistent, but at a slightly
disappointing level for some as the global economic
outlook put pressure on some buying patterns.
November saw a slight resurgence for those suppliers
with material due to the two force majeure declarations
on DINP. However, by December, consumption saw the
usual slowdown as one force majeure was lifted and
many end-users prepared to end the year with low
inventories.
Q1 2019 - Market Outlook
Supply
EUROPE
Although it could take a couple of months for the water
levels on the Rhine to return to normal levels, sources
generally expect improved supply towards the end of
the first quarter. Grupa Azoty Zaklady is due to increase
its nameplate capacity of dioctyl terephthalate (DOTP)
by 15,000 tonnes/year in the first couple of months and
Russia’s Sibur is said to be on track to start up its
100,000 tonnes/year DOTP unit in the spring.
Demand
EUROPE
The demand picture is less clear, but is generally
expected to either plateau or grow by close to GDP at
around 1.2% in Europe. Typically the peak demand
period should start to kick in towards the end of the first
quarter.
ASIA
The supply of dioctyl phthalate (DOP) and dioctyl
terephthalate (DOTP) was largely stable, but higher
prices for DOTP outside of Asia meant that producers
allocated less cargoes to their Asian buyers. Regional
supply of diisononyl phthalate (DINP) was slightly tight
as one feedstock unit was on a turnaround and will only
start to produce isononanol (INA) at the beginning of
2019. Run rates at Chinese plasticizers producers were
heard to be lower in late Q4.
ASIA
Demand for diisononyl phthalate (DINP) from Europe
and the US was generally healthy, but European
demand tapered towards the end of the year when
water levels on the Rhine River rose.
Demand for dioctyl terephthalate (DOTP) in the fourth
quarter was largely stable, but fell as the year drew to a
close. Dioctyl phthalate (DOP) demand was stable to
soft in the quarter as poor sentiment in China curtailed
import demand.
ASIA
The supply of diisononyl phthalate (DINP) in northeast
Asia could start the year on the tight side as one
feedstock isononanol (INA) unit is set to resume
production after a turnaround in January. One
northeast Asian producer said it will undergo a
turnaround in early Q2, and this could affect its spot
supply in Q1.
ASIA
In China, pre-Lunar New Year re-stocking could improve
demand. In Europe, there is some uncertainty about
demand for Asian cargoes. Buyers are not optimistic
about the current economic climate. In the US, supply
and demand are expected to be affected by production
in the auto industry.
US
Domestically produced US plasticizer supply was
sufficient. However, logistics difficulties stemming from
truck driver shortages continued to hamper lead times.
Ongoing trade tensions dampened buyer appetite for
imports. Critically low Rhine river levels prompted
production rollbacks in Europe, resulting in tighter
Increase
diisononyl phthalate (DINP) supply in the US. Supply of
dioctyl phthalate (DOP) and dioctyl terephthalate
(DOTP) was ample and remained balanced with
Constant
demand amid weaker demand due to the usual winter
slowdown.
Decrease
US Mixed
Diisononyl phthalate (DINP) demand surged amid tight
supply through most of Q4, a result of logistics issues in
European production sites that stemmed from critically
low Rhine River water levels. Demand for dioctyl
phthalate (DOP) and dioctyl terephthalate (DOTP)
remained strong through the last quarter of the year.
DINP demand did taper off somewhat in December
amid the usual seasonal lull, improved inventories and
higher Rhine river levels.
US
Diisononyl phthalate (DINP) supply is expected to
improve amid resolved European production issues.
Logistics difficulties may be mitigated as at least one
company invested in private trucking to guarantee
supply deliveries. However, the addition is unlikely to
significantly alleviate widespread transportation
obstacles, particularly truck driver shortages, for the
market as a whole.
US
Demand is expected to remain steady. Chinese tariffs
and transportation issues may reduce buying appetite.
A potential decline in automotive production is also a
significant factor. Longer term trends see the market
moving away from DOP use due to possible health
concerns associated with the material, with a
subsequent drop-off in demand.
 PHENOL
Q4 2018 - Market Review
Supply
EUROPE
The European phenol market was tight in 2018, as
demand was high and co-product acetone was lengthy.
Sources said suppliers adjusted operating rates to
reflect the fundamentals in both markets. In October,
however, INEOS Phenol’s force majeure at its 650,000
tonne/year Gladbeck and 680,000 tonne/year Antwerp
facilities shortened supply further. The Swiss-headquar-
tered seller declared force majeure following low water
levels on the Rhine and feedstock cumene supply
issues.
Demand
EUROPE
Strong demand for European phenol persisted into Q4.
Production difficulties at the end of October led to a
jump in purchasing interest for some participants. There
was also a planned maintenance at a downstream
facility owned by Hexion Pernis, the US seller of
bisphenol A (BPA). The scheduled shutdown at the
120,000 tonne/year unit occurred in November and
limited phenol consumption to a certain degree.
Q1 2019 - Market Outlook
Supply
EUROPE
Europe phenol supply should grow in Q1 after INEOS
Phenol lifted its force majeure from Antwerp and
Gladbeck in December. The Swiss-headquartered seller
declared the force majeure at the 650,000 tonne/year
Gladbeck and 680,000 tonne/year Antwerp units in
October. However, co-product acetone supply will also
be crucial.
Demand
EUROPE
Weak global macroeconomic conditions at the end of
Q4 led market participants to suggest that European
phenol demand could fall in the first few months of
2019. Not all participants were able to secure the
volumes they require for 2019.
ASIA
Phenol supply in Q4 was reduced following
turnarounds in China. Trade friction between the US
and China resulted in a fall in offers for US-origin
cargoes.
CFR CMP prices peaked at $1,460/tonne on 2 November
before sliding to $1,090/tonne CFR CMP on 21
December. CFR India prices slipped to $1,065/tonne CFR
India on 21 December.
ASIA
Phenol demand was higher in Q4 as players sought
imports after domestic Chinese production was hit by a
slew of turnarounds. Availability was further reduced
after US-origin phenol was slapped with an additional
10% import duty following the trade war between
China and the US. As production is traditionally
dedicated to fulfilling contractual obligations, spot
volumes were rare and could only be secured at high
prices.
ASIA
Phenol supply in Q1 is expected to be ample after
plants in China restarted following maintenance.
Although turnarounds are expected outside of China,
supply is estimated to be ample based on forecast
demand.
ASIA
Phenol demand in Q1 is likely to be subdued ahead of
the Lunar New Year in early February. Although some
re-stocking activity is likely following the festivities,
recent volatile price movements in upstream benzene
and propylene are likely to keep players to the sidelines.
US
US phenol supply levels were snug during the fourth
quarter of 2018 amid production disruptions in the US
and Europe. A major US plant was on planned
turnaround, while Rhine River-related issues caused
outages and force majeure in Europe, further tightening
an already snug global landscape. Producers who were
operating ran at high rates to meet demand. Little
domestic material was available for spot market buyers
through most the quarter amid demand from other
regions.
US
US phenol demand remained robust in the fourth
quarter of 2018 across end-use sectors and in export
markets. Demand from epoxy and phenolic resins was
strong. Amid attractive export margins, phenol
producers asked buyers if they could take less material
in order to push phenol into export markets. High
export margins pushed producers to raise adders for
contract buyers. The increases took hold across the
board in the fourth quarter. Demand waned somewhat
toward year’s end.
US
US phenol supply is expected to remain sufficient to
meet demand in the first quarter of 2019. Production
issues have been resolved. Market sentiment is that
producers may reduce operating rates despite strong
demand due to losses associated with co-product
acetone. Supply levels will largely be affected by how Increase
acetone margins weigh on overall margins.
Constant
Decrease
US
Mixed
US phenol demand is expected to remain strong in the
first quarter of 2019 both domestically and in export
markets. However, export margins are under some
pressure on bearish sentiment in other regions.
Downstream polycarbonate (PC) markets are
particularly sluggish in Asia. Epoxy and phenolic resins
demand should remain strong barring an economic
downturn.
 POLYETHYLENE TEREPHTHALATE
Q4 2018 - Market Review
Supply
EUROPE
The year ended with the declaration of force majeure
out of Indorama Ventures’ Rotterdam plant in The
Netherlands. This followed a hot oil leak and other
technical problems at its 426,000 tonne/year site. Neo
Group in Klaipeda, Lithuania, had planned maintenance
on one of its three 160,000 tonne/year PET lines from
end October to the middle of November. Novapet’s
130,000 tonne/year Barbastro, Spain line had scheduled
maintenance on this, the largest of its three lines in
October and December.
Demand
EUROPE
A combination of the end of the peak summer season
and the arrival of import volumes deadened October
demand. Sales remained subdued in November, a time
of macroeconomic turmoil that had customers
monitoring the downfall of prices in other regions.
Imports featured in November too, further impacting
domestic sales. By the end of December, demand for
domestic product had depleted, as buyers awaited
arrivals from other regions.
Q1 2019 - Market Outlook
Supply
EUROPE
European PET buyers say they have committed to
considerably more imports for arrival in the first quarter,
than in previous years. This is partly in resistance to the
individual increases producers targeted for 2019
conversion costs. Indorama Ventures’ will be attempting
to restock following the force majeure on PET out of
Rotterdam, The Netherlands, which was declared on 28
November.
Demand
EUROPE
Demand for European PET in the first quarter of 2019
may not be as high as in previous years, if customers
have committed to buying a lot of material out of
territory. It is normally the second quarter when
requirements are fervent as bottlers stock up for the
peak summer season.
ASIA
There was a concentration of maintenance outages by
several Asian producers in the fourth quarter amid the
seasonal lull demand period and poor margins.
Producers that had maintenances including Far Eastern
New Century, Zhejiang Wankai New Material, Reliance
Industries, China Resources Packaging, Indorama
Ventures, Nan Ya Plastics, Yisheng Petrochemical, and
Lotte Chemical. There were also producers that cut
production due to the poor market condition and weak
sentiments such as Sanfangxiang Group and Dragon
Special Resin.
ASIA
Demand remained lacklustre due to constant
anticipation of lower prices amid the price downtrend,
continuing the slowdown since the end of the peak
season. The slow demand and low prices created a
vicious cycle that kept sentiment weak in the quarter.
Most buyers also tried to keep inventories low for
year-end stock taking. There were some demand for
future and term cargoes heard as some buyers consider
prices to be at relatively low levels.
ASIA
As many maintenance turnarounds were conducted in
the previous quarter, leaving a few outstanding
ongoing maintenance outages in January 2019, the
supply in Q1 should surpass that of Q4 2018. Margins
should get better as the next peak demand season
draws closer to support generally higher PET
production.
ASIA
The lull demand season typically spills into Q1 and
demand will usually pick up towards the end of Q1 as
downstream converters will start to purchase for
pre-form and bottle production that caters for the next
peak summer season in the northern hemisphere.
US
US polyethylene terephthalate (PET) supply during the
fourth quarter of 2018 was gauged as ample on
abundant offers from offshore sellers that contributed
to declining prices. The International Trade Commis-
sion’s (ITC) negative injury determination in the
anti-dumping investigations on resin imports from
Increase
Brazil, Indonesia, Korea, Pakistan, and Taiwan
exacerbated the supply level situation in the region and
helped push prices lower.
Constant
Decrease
Mixed
US
US PET demand in the fourth quarter of 2018 was weak
on seasonality as the weather turned cold. Declining
resin prices and abundant global supply drove several
buyers to postpone purchases in hopes of even weaker
prices in early 2019.
US
US PET supply in the first quarter of 2019 is expected to
remain long, as Asia continues to target American
buyers to reduce inventories. The antidumping appeal
filed by three US resin producers could slow import
volumes if the International Trade Commission (ITC)
finds that product from Brazil, South Korea, Pakistan,
Indonesia and Taiwan has harmed US producers’ ability
to compete.
US
US PET demand in the first quarter of 2019 is expected
to be sluggish, with improved levels towards the end of
the quarter with the approach of warmer weather. If
found guilty of dumping resin in the US, imports from
Brazil, South Korea, Pakistan, Indonesia and Taiwan
would not abound, supporting improved business
activity between domestic sellers and buyers.
 POLYSTYRENE
Q4 2018 - Market Review
Supply
EUROPE
Supply in the European polystyrene (PS) market
tightened substantially over Q4 2018. Certain grades of
general purpose PS (GPPS) were particularly tight
during the quarter amid production cuts and order
cancellation by BASF, due to Rhine river levels falling to
record lows and restricting raw material supplies. An
erosion in upstream styrene monomer costs and a surge
of pre-buying and re-stocking activity led to significant
tightness in late Q4, exacerbated by trucking shortages
in parts of Europe.
Demand
EUROPE
Demand in the European polystyrene (PS) market
improved significantly in Q4 2018. Although October
was broadly stable for most sectors, a surge of
pre-buying and re-stocking activity in November and
December buoyed consumption. An erosion in
upstream styrene monomer costs pressured prices to
levels not seen in over a year and an anticipation by
many buyers that prices had bottomed out for the time
being led to increased demand, although end-user
buying interest remained stable.
Q1 2019 - Market Outlook
Supply
EUROPE
Supply in the European polystyrene (PS) market for Q1
2019 is expected to improve for certain grades of
general purpose PS (GPPS). Rhine river water levels are
set to recover and BASF’s production cuts are
anticipated to conclude as this occurs. Adding to this,
Trinseo’s styrene plant is expected to become
operational again in mid-January.
Demand
EUROPE
Demand in the European polystyrene (PS) market for Q1
2019 is unclear currently. Some expect buying appetite
to remain healthy amid low prices and expectations
that costs could increase later in the quarter amid
outages upstream. Others expect demand to be
lacklustre in early Q1 as many have engaged in
pre-buying and re-stocking activity in Q4.
ASIA
No turnarounds were planned in the last quarter of the
year.
ASIA
Earlier restocking will take place, with Lunar New Year
occuring in early February this year.
ASIA
There are turnarounds planned in February.
ASIA
Demand is likely to soften on slowdown in consumption
during the Lunar New Year period.
US
There were no turnarounds or interruptions to
production in the US market during the fourth quarter.
US PS prices ended 2018 on a low note, falling by 7
cents/lb across the board in December. The price drops
were the result of the steep decline on feedstock
benzene prices during the fourth quarter. Prices rolled
over in October and November. Mexico, Brazil and
South Korea were the largest suppliers of PS to the
market during the fourth quarter.
US
Demand continued to drop in December, as it typically
falls to the lowest level of the year in December.
Demand in November was down by 15% from the same
month in 2017, according to the American Chemistry
Council (ACC). Demand during the first 11 months of
2018 was down by 4.9% from the corresponding period
in 2017. The sectors that saw the biggest drops were
compounders (down by 10%); building and construc-
tion (down by 7.9%); and electrical/electronic (down by
4.1%).
US
US PS supply should be steady during the first quarter.
The largest suppliers of PS to the US are Mexico, Brazil
and South Korea. Q1 US PS prices will largely follow the
direction of key feedstocks, as that is the largest
determining factor for PS price direction. But, supply Increase
and demand fundamentals are also taken into
consideration when producers make their pricing
decisions. Constant
Decrease
Mixed
US
Demand will increase in the first quarter, from low levels
in the fourth quarter. Historically, January prices
increase or roll over, but rarely weaken. But, there is no
impetus for higher prices at the start of the first quarter.
Recent trends in exports are expected to continue in the
first quarter. US PS exports grew each year between
2015 and 2017. Mexico and Canada have been and will
continue to be the largest destinations for US exports.
 PURIFIED TEREPHTHALIC ACID
Q4 2018 - Market Review
Supply
EUROPE
PKN Orlen’s 600,000 tonne/year purified terephthalic
acid (PTA) plant in Wloclawek, Poland, was unexpected-
ly kept down after maintenance that started in
September. Force majeure was declared, then lifted
mid-November. Indorama Ventures’ PTA production in
Rotterdam, The Netherlands, ran at reduced rates in
November/December, due to a force majeure on
downstream polyethylene terephthalate (PET), which
was declared at the same site on 28 November.
Indorama Ventures’ facility in Sines, Portugal, shut down
for maintenance in October.
Demand
EUROPE
Demand for PTA in quarter four traditionally drops
compared to the third quarter, as it marks the end of the
high season for downstream PET bottlers. There were
also PET imports that arrived throughout the quarter
that affected requirements for local product. The mood
was downbeat at a time of macroeconomic turmoil, and
with so many PET imports expected in Q1 2019,
demand was subdued by the end of the year.
Q1 2019 - Market Outlook
Supply
EUROPE
Supply of PTA is likely to be in line with requirements of
PET going into the first quarter. It is usually the second
quarter when the market heats up in terms of buying
forward in time for the peak bottling season.
Demand
EUROPE
The major PTA application sector PET will be recovering
from a force majeure declaration at Indorama Ventures’
unit in Rotterdam, The Netherlands. Buyers say they
have committed additional import volumes of PET for
arrival in the first quarter, and this may result in less
requirement of domestic PTA.
ASIA
China’s PTA average operating rates during the quarter
stood at around 75%, compared to 82% in the previous
quarter. The country saw an estimated production loss
of around 1.12m tonnes during the quarter, as a result
of scheduled turnarounds. Squeezed production
margins during the period have prompted several
scheduled turnarounds within Asia. There was also
several scheduled maintenance in South Korea, Taiwan,
and in India.
ASIA
Downstream polyester operating rates were lower
during the quarter, as demand was slower due to a
bearish global macroeconomic environment, coupled
with weakening prices seen in the upstream energy
markets. Buying appetite was largely kept to a need-to
basis, with end users unwilling to build up inventories
to mitigate inventory losses. In China, downstream
operating rates were reduced to an average of 81.9%,
compared to 82.1% in the previous quarter. In India,
operating rates of polyester facilities were reduced to as
low as 40-45%, from an average of 60-70%.
ASIA
A tightly-supplied market should gradually start to ease
going forward, as there are limited upcoming scheduled
maintenance. In addition, majority of previously
scheduled maintenance are likely to be completed by
the end of January. PTA production margins in Asia are
healthy, thus existing units should be operating at close
to full rates.
ASIA
Demand in the key China markets is expected to remain
stable to soft in the near term, as operating rates of
downstream polyester facilities are likely to be adjusted
down. During the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday,
downstream polyester facilities in China typically
reduce their operating rates by around 10-15
percentage points. Pre-stock purchasing activity are
likely to be curbed on the back of an uncertain global
macroeconomic outlook, especially amid the on-going
US-China trade talks.
US
US purified terephthalic acid (PTA) supply during the
fourth quarter of 2018 was sufficient on the back of
steady supply of feedstock paraxylene. Prices started to
soften, as buying interest from downstream segments
declined due to large import volumes of competitively
priced offshore polyethylene terephthalate.
Increase
Constant
Decrease
Mixed
US
US PTA demand in the fourth quarter of 2018 was stable
to soft on seasonality as the main consumer of PTA is
the polyethylene terephthalate (PET) sector, which
slows with the start of cooler weather conditions.
Declining PET resin demand in December further
dampened PTA demand levels.
US
US PTA supply in the first quarter of 2019 is expected to
start out steady, as buying interest from downstream
PET resin continues to be slow on seasonality. Abundant
supply from Asia PET suppliers continues to enter the
US market. Supply may become somewhat tight
towards the second half of the quarter as more
favourable weather conditions develop and demand
from bottled beverage and carbonated drinks increases.
US
US PTA demand in the first quarter of 2019 is likely to be
weak, with improved levels towards the second half of
the quarter as downstream PET producers start to
increase inventory levels in anticipation of higher
demand for food packaging and carbonated drinks
during the summer.
 STYRENE
Q4 2018 - Market Review
Supply
EUROPE
A styrene facility in the Netherlands encountered
unexpected production problems in December. The
500,000 tonne/year site encountered a process
disruption and went down on 11 December because of
an equipment issue. A restart was expected by the
middle of January. Rhine river water levels picked up
towards the end of the quarter, but logistics remained
constrained.
Demand
EUROPE
Demand for styrene in Europe was very subdued in the
fourth quarter. General macroeconomic malaise, and
weaker sentiment in Asia, along with traditional
de-stocking measures at year-end reduced overall
consumption rates.
Q1 2019 - Market Outlook
Supply
EUROPE
Availability of styrene in Europe in the first quarter of
2019 is not expected to be as ample as it was in the
fourth quarter. Derivative demand from the key
polystyrene (PS) market picked up in the latter part of
the fourth quarter, and is expected to continue at a
decent level at the start of the new year, because of
re-stocking and boosted by recent price decreases. The
market will also be preparing for a slate of spring
turnarounds.
Demand
EUROPE
First-quarter European styrene demand is likely to pick
up compared with Q4, as players in the polystyrene (PS)
and other derivative markets will be re-stocking after
year-end de-stocking, and as the market prepares for a
series of spring turnarounds. Demand in general is
subject to a degree of uncertainty, with many questions
regarding global macroeconomics.
ASIA
Arbitrage for exports from the US and Europe was open
through most parts of the fourth quarter, encouraging
sellers to target the Asia market in general. The need for
some makers to clear inventories before the year-end in
the West contributed to rising supply as well. Asian
supply was equally ample, despite turnarounds at some
units in Singapore, Indonesia and the Middle East,
because of mostly high operating rates amid healthy
production margins.
ASIA
Demand in northeast Asia, outside of China, was mostly
lacklustre owing to poor margins and slow demand -
particularly for ABS - because of ongoing uncertainties
amid the US-China trade war. This was amid scheduled
maintenances at some downstream units in Ulsan from
October. Demand in China, however, was strong in the
October-November on healthy distributor margins and
overall lower-than-expected inventories. December
demand was generally weak ahead of the year-end
closing.
ASIA
Supply in northeast Asia, especially South Korea and
Taiwan, is likely to drop from end-February to March
because of scheduled plant turnarounds. Cargoes from
the Middle East may decrease in volume as well
because of shutdowns. However, shoretank inventories
at China main ports are likely to be long and that could
neutralise the loss of production from the other makers.
ASIA
Demand is likely to be slow until middle of February as
end users limit their buying appetite and minimise
stock accumulation before and during the Lunar New
Year holiday period. However, buying activity is likely to
pick up for March parcels because of replenishment
after the holiday season. March is traditionally the start
of the peak demand season for the EPS downstream as
well. Demand outside of China may pick up as well as
some end-users need to cover the production loss from
northeast Asian suppliers.
US
After reaching full output in July and August, US styrene
production in the fourth quarter dropped by 12%. Half
of Cosmar’s production at Carville, Louisiana, or 590,000
tonnes, was taken down for a planned turnaround in
early September. The turnaround concluded in
mid-December. As a net styrene exporter, the US
imports one-third to one-quarter of the volume it
exports. The US imported an average of 54,501 tonnes
of styrene per month during the first 10 months of
2018. The vast majority of that was sourced from
Canada.
US
Domestic styrene demand in the fourth quarter was
steady, led by downstream markets including
acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene (ABS) and expandable
polystyrene (EPS). China’s ADD ruling against the US,
South Korea and Taiwan led to reduced exports from
the US to China during 2017 and 2018. US exports to
China during the first 10 months of 2018, at 127,510
tonnes, were down by 40% year on year. As a result, US
suppliers increased sales to countries like the
Netherlands and Turkey in 2018.
US
Prices in the US styrene market are poised to peak in the
first quarter as two planned turnarounds in the US Gulf
will begin before the end of March. AmSty will begin a
45-day turnaround at its Louisiana plant at the end of
January. Another producer will begin a planned Increase
turnaround in March.
Constant
Decrease
Mixed
US
The first quarter is typically a period of heavy exports by
the US. The majority of shipments will move to Mexico
during the first quarter, as it is by far the largest
destination for US exports. Shipments to the country
comprised 43% of total US exports during the first 10
months of 2018. Other top destinations will be China,
the Netherlands and South Korea.
 TOLUENE
Q4 2018 - Market Review
Supply
EUROPE
The end of turnarounds in September and October at
some European plants was meant to lift supply in Q4
2018. However one southern European turnaround was
extended while other plants suffered as a result of
extremely low water levels on the Rhine river which
curtailed the ability to send material to customers via
barge, or in some cases, may have reduced operating
rates. Pricing was forced downward by plunging
upstream markets, with crude falling from around
$80/bbl to below $60/bbl.
Demand
EUROPE
Demand in Q4 2018 was depressed by low water levels
on the Rhine as buyers, who are reliant on the
waterway, struggled to receive barges. In addition,
some downstream markets slowed or halted production
completely as they were unable to secure sufficient
material to run plants. As a result, purchasing pressure
was placed on the distribution market, pushing up
distribution values for toluene. Overseas demand was
heard, with Eurostat data indicating exports to the US,
Saudi Arabia and India during October.
Q1 2019 - Market Outlook
Supply
EUROPE
Supply should be steady for the most part of Q1 2019.
Higher water levels on the Rhine river should mean
better, more consistent output and steadier deliveries
from producers hampered in Q4 2018 by logistical and
production difficulties. The delayed return of a plant in
Portugal was eyed as a potential balancing factor.
Demand
EUROPE
European demand in Q1 2019 should increase, signalled
by the restart of BASF's toluene di-isocyanate (TDI)
plant which is due in mid to late January after a
shutdown related to extremely low water levels on the
river Rhine in Q4. Arbitrage to the US was deemed
closed as the quarter opened, and much will depend on
how pricing progresses led by upstream crude and
gasoline values.
ASIA
Supply rose mostly in November and December on
weaker downstream production spreads for TDP
makers, particularly in northeast Asia, despite some
ongoing maintenance in the Yeosu and Kaohsiung
areas. Several makers focused on selling toluene instead
of benzene because of the better netbacks. Supply in
southeast Asia remained stable mostly as there were
limited long-term maintenance in the region.
ASIA
Buying was initially slow in the early part of the quarter,
but the market turned better towards the year-end as
Chinese importers came out on healthy distributor
margins and overall lower-than-expected inventories at
main east China main ports. Southeast Asian demand,
separately, was strong in the early quarter as some
buyers expected the market was close to bottom on
narrower feedstock spreads. However, buying slowed
after prices continued the downtrend into the last week
of December.
ASIA
Cargoes are likely to be readily available from all Asian
makers because of the lack of maintenances within the
region. The accumulation of some inventories since the
year-end of 2018 is likely to contribute to stable supply,
even if there is one plant expected to shut in
second-half January.
ASIA
Usage from various downstreams will vary. TDP users
are unlikely to procure more toluene because of the
squeezed spreads for benzene production. Chinese
importers meanwhile will only be focused on forward
February parcels to avoid delivery timing during the
Lunar New Year. India demand could improve slightly as
distributor margins widen on a potential strengthening
of the rupee. Southeast Asian demand is likely to stay
flat for the first quarter.
US
US toluene supply increased in the fourth quarter amid
seasonal downturn. Gasoline demand softened over the
quarter owing to the winter gasoline season when
demand for octane-enhancing aromatics such as
toluene and mixed xylenes (MX) is typically lowest.
Demand for downstream toluene diisocyanate (TDI)
Increase
was also lower amid oversupply in the market. Solvents
demand was also softer amid a typical year-end
slowdown. Weak demand and strong refinery rates
Constant
produced ample supply over the quarter.
Decrease
US Mixed
US toluene demand decreased in the fourth quarter
amid a seasonal downturn during the winter gasoline
season. Demand for octane-enhancing aromatics such
as toluene and mixed xylenes (MX) decreased in favor of
cheaper octane-boosters such as butane. Demand for
toluene in the downstream toluene diisocyanate (TDI)
and solvents market was also weaker amid oversupply
and seasonal downturn, respectively. Demand for
toluene for on-purpose benzene production was also
weak because of depressed benzene prices and healthy
benzene supply.
US
Supply is expected to tighten in the first quarter amid
refinery maintenance season, putting upward pressure
on prices in early 2019. Supply will also tighten after
refinery maintenance season ends as producers begin
preparing for the switch to summer-blend gasoline
season in the spring.
US
Demand is expected to pick up toward the end of the
first quarter on increased demand for octane-enhanc-
ing aromatics such as toluene and MX in preparation for
summer gasoline season, which begins in the spring.
Demand for downstream solvents is also expected to
increase amid seasonal upturn.
 TOLUENE DIISOCYANATE
Q4 2018 - Market Review
Supply
EUROPE
Europe toluene di-isocyanate (TDI) supply remained
lengthy at the start of Q4 2018 following the restart of
BASF’s Ludwigshafen plant in July. Low consumption
levels - in response to higher pricing in 2017 and the
start of 2018 - also contributed to the increase in TDI
supply. However, low water levels on the Rhine in late
November saw BASF halt production again at the
300,000 tonne/year plant because it faced problems
sourcing raw materials.
Demand
EUROPE
Demand for Europe toluene di-isocyanate (TDI) was
reduced year on year for much of 2018. Many end users
had already switched to competing downstream
material after TDI prices rose in 2017 and early 2018. A
softer pricing trend in H2 2018 prompted some
participants to say that consumption should return.
However, order book volumes remained low in Q4 2018
and the exact timing for this boost in demand is unclear.
Q1 2019 - Market Outlook
Supply
EUROPE
At the beginning of January 2019, a BASF spokesperson
said that the seller’s Ludwigshafen facility would restart
by the end of the month. Once production recommenc-
es at the 300,000 tonne/year facility Europe toluene
di-isocyanate (TDI) availability will increase. This could
return the market to the length experienced in H2 2018.
Demand
EUROPE
Higher pricing led to a drop in Europe toluene
di-isocyanate (TDI) demand levels in 2018. However, a
following softer price trend failed to push up
consumption levels in H2 2018. A rise in order book
volumes in 2019 is still a possibility, but when this will
take place remains unclear.
ASIA
Toluene di-isocyanate (TDI) supply in China was stable
as most existing plants operated normally during the
quarter, except for a 450,000 tonn/year facility which
shut down in December for servicing. However, import
availability tightened after several plants in northeast
Asia - totaling some 400,000 tonne/year of production
capacity - went off line for scheduled servicing at
various times during the quarter.
ASIA
Demand was extremely weak during the Q4 2018. Many
buyers were reluctant to make purchases in the
expectation of further price cuts once new supply
streams, including a 300,000 tonne/year plant in
northern China, enter the market.
ASIA
Supply is likely to increase as production from a new
300,000 tonne/year in northern China stabilises and
grows. The plant began selling in the domestic market
in late December 2018 and may have cargoes ready for
export shortly.
ASIA
Demand is expected to remain tepid in Q1 2018. Players
expect a traditional lull in Chinese manufacturing
activity during the Lunar New Year holiday which takes
place in February.
US
US toluene di-isocyanate (TDI) supply was long in Q4
2018 as the global TDI market shifted from a prolonged
period of tightness to a situation of global oversupply.
BASF resumed production at its 300,000 tonne/year
plant in Ludwigshafen, Germany in H2 2018 and
Wanhua started up a new plant in China in Q4. No
production issues were seen in North America.
US
US toluene di-isocyanate (TDI) demand was sluggish in
Q4 2018. Consumption from the furniture and bedding
sector was tepid after a shift to imported mattresses
and “bed-in-a-box” technology - some of which use MDI
rather than TDI in their formulations - limited TDI
consumption. Automotive demand slowed in 2018
relative to 2017, which also limited demand.
US
Global length in the TDI market is forecast to remain in
place in Q1 2019. Initial shipments from a new plant in
China started early in the new year, suggesting that
global supply will lengthen in the coming months. The
TDI market could experience structural oversupply in
the medium term as demand will need to see rapid
grow to catch up with the additional capacity builds.
Increase
US Constant
No major change is anticipated to TDI demand during Decrease
Q1 2019. Automotive demand is expected to continue
to gradually slow from the record high sales figures
seen earlier this decade. A petition seeking antidump-
Mixed
ing duties (ADDs) on Chinese mattresses may help
direct more consumer demand to domestic manufac-
turers and provide support to TDI demand.