DISTRIBUCION DE GUMBEL-METODO N°1

MEDIA ARITMETICA DESVIACION TIPICA

Media aritmetica = 31.650
Desviación típica= 20.64

Parametros my sy
0.5468 1.1538

N° Año Caudal T. Retorno Qmax(m3/s)

1 1957 14.92 2 34.27 FORMULA DE GUMBEL
2 1958 30.28 5 50.66
3 1959 23.14 10 63.06
4 1960 24.67 20 75.46
5 1961 26.80 50.0 91.85
6 1962 51.43 100.0 104.25
7 1963 83.93
8 1964 20.41
9 1965 13.42
10 1966 10.62
11 1967 26.10
12 1968 41.65
13 1969 23.26
14 1970 31.99
15 1971 40.94
16 1972 50.92
17 1973 41.40
18 1974 68.66
19 1975 45.88
20 1976 47.68
21 1977 30.86
22 1978 39.75
23 1979 28.42
24 1983 4.22
25 1984 65.28
26 1985 53.32
27 1986 95.30
28 1987 33.54
29 1988 36.10
30 1989 34.06
31 1990 13.80
32 1991 26.42
33 1992 9.03
34 1993 20.26
35 1994 31.49
36 1995 17.19
37 1996 22.58
38 1997 63.41
39 2008 2.94
40 2009 13.24
41 2011 4.42
42 2015 4.23
43 2016 12.40
44 2017 44.72
45 2018 20.33
46 2019 10.44

DISTRIBUCION DE GUMBEL-METODO N°2

Media aritmetica = 31.650 Coeficiente de variacion= 0.6521327

Desviación típica= 20.64

P(%) Tr(años) Y Qd COEFICIENTE DE VARIACION

0.01 10000.00 9.21 0.00
0.10 1000.00 6.91 31.65
0.50 200.00 5.30 31.65
1.00 100.00 4.60 31.65
3.00 33.33 3.49 31.65
5.00 20.00 2.97 31.65
10.00 10.00 2.25 31.65 CALCULO DEL Y
20.00 5.00 1.50 31.65
25.00 4.00 1.25 31.65
30.00 3.33 1.03 31.65
40.00 2.50 0.67 31.65
50.00 2.00 0.37 31.65
60.00 1.67 0.09 31.65
70.00 1.43 -0.19 31.65
75.00 1.33 -0.33 31.65 FORMULA PARA HALLAR EL CAUDAL
80.00 1.25 -0.48 31.65
90.00 1.11 -0.83 31.65
95.00 1.05 -1.10 31.65
97.00 1.03 -1.25 31.65
99.00 1.01 -1.53 31.65
99.90 1.00 -1.93 31.65
numero año caudal Q DE MAYOR A MENOR
1 1957 14.92 95.30
2 1958 30.28 83.93
3 1959 23.14 68.66
4 1960 24.67 65.28
5 1961 26.80 63.41
6 1962 51.43 53.32
7 1963 83.93 51.43
8 1964 20.41 50.92
9 1965 13.42 47.68
10 1966 10.62 45.88
11 1967 26.10 44.72
12 1968 41.65 41.65
13 1969 23.26 41.40
14 1970 31.99 40.94
15 1971 40.94 39.75
16 1972 50.92 36.10
17 1973 41.40 34.06
18 1974 68.66 33.54
19 1975 45.88 31.99
20 1976 47.68 31.49
21 1977 30.86 30.86
22 1978 39.75 30.28
23 1979 28.42 28.42
24 1983 4.22 26.80
25 1984 65.28 26.42
26 1985 53.32 26.10
27 1986 95.30 24.67
 28 1987 33.54 23.26
29 1988 36.10 23.14
30 1989 34.06 22.58
31 1990 13.80 20.41
32 1991 26.42 20.33
33 1992 9.03 20.26
34 1993 20.26 17.19
35 1994 31.49 14.92
36 1995 17.19 13.80
37 1996 22.58 13.42
38 1997 63.41 13.24
39 2008 2.94 12.40
40 2009 13.24 10.62
41 2011 4.42 10.44
42 2012 0.00 9.03
43 2015 4.23 4.42
44 2016 12.40 4.23
45 2017 44.72 4.22
46 2018 20.33 2.94
47 2019 10.44 0.00

media aritmetica 30.98

desviacion estandar 59.12
coeficiente de variacion 1.91

P(%) Tr(años) Y
0.01 10000 9.21
0.1 1000 6.91
0.5 200 5.30
1 100 4.60
 2 50 3.90
3 33.33 3.49
10 10 2.25
20 5 1.50
25 4 1.25
50 2 0.37
70 1.43 -0.19
80 1.25 -0.48
90 1.11 -0.83
99 1.01 -1.53
99.9 1.00 -1.93
PROBABILIDAD EMPIRICA
2.08
4.17
6.25
8.33
10.42
12.50
14.58
16.67
18.75
20.83
22.92
25.00
27.08
29.17
31.25
33.33
35.42
37.50
39.58
41.67
43.75
45.83
47.92
50.00
52.08
54.17
56.25
 58.33
60.42
62.50
64.58
66.67
68.75
70.83
72.92
75.00
77.08
79.17
81.25
83.33
85.42
87.50
89.58
91.67
93.75
95.83
97.92

caudal de diseño
429.09
322.89 500.00

248.58
216.50
400.00
 500.00

184.30 400.00

165.37
108.14
300.00
73.54
61.82
21.27
200.00

Caudal( Q (m3/s)
-4.19
-17.57
-34.09 100.00
-66.05
-84.75
0.00
0.01 0.10

-100.00

-200.00
 Probabilidad emp
Probabilidad teori

0.10 1.00 10.00 100.00

PROBABILIDAD P (%)
 Probabilidad empirica
Probabilidad teorica

00
numero año
1 1957
2 1958
3 1959
4 1960
5 1961
6 1962
7 1963
8 1964
9 1965
10 1966
11 1967
12 1968
13 1969
14 1970
15 1971
16 1972
17 1973
18 1974
19 1975
20 1976
21 1977
22 1978
23 1979
24 1983
25 1984
26 1985
27 1986
28 1987
29 1988
 30 1989
31 1990
32 1991
33 1992
34 1993
35 1994
36 1995
37 1996
38 1997
39 2008
40 2009
41 2011
42 2015
43 2016
44 2017
45 2018
46 2019

MEDIA
DESVIACION ESTANDAR
COEFICIENTE DE VARIACION

COEFICIENTE DE ASIMETRIA

CS 0.01
0.0 3.72
0.1 3.94
0.2 4.16
0.3 4.38
0.4 4.61
0.5 4.83
0.6 5.05
0.7 5.28
0.8 5.5
0.9 5.73
1.0 5.96
1.1 6.18
1.2 6.41
1.3 6.64
1.4 6.87
1.5 7.09
1.6 7.31
1.7 7.54
1.8 7.76
1.9 7.98
2.0 8.21
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.1
3.2
caudal(m3/s) Orden jerarquico
14.92 35
30.28 22
23.14 29
24.67 27
26.80 24
51.43 7
83.93 2
20.41 31
13.42 37
10.62 40
26.10 26
41.65 12
23.26 28
31.99 19
40.94 14
50.92 8
41.40 13
68.66 3
45.88 10
47.68 9
30.86 21
39.75 15
28.42 23
4.22 45
65.28 4
53.32 6
95.30 1
33.54 18
36.10 16
34.06 17
13.80 36
26.42 25
9.03 42
20.26 33
31.49 20
17.19 34
22.58 30
63.41 5
2.94 46
13.24 38
4.42 43
4.23 44
12.40 39
44.72 11
20.33 32
10.44 41

31.65
20.65
0.65

1.0

0.1 0.5
3.09 2.57
3.23 2.68
3.33 2.78
3.52 2.89
3.66 2.98
3.81 3.08
3.96 3.17
4.1 3.27
4.24 3.36
4.38 3.45
4.53 3.53
4.67 3.61
4.81 3.7
4.95 3.78
5.09 3.86
5.23 3.93
5.37 4.02
5.5 4.1
5.64 4.17
5.77 4.24
5.91 4.3
6.04 4.36
6.14 4.42
6.26 4.46
6.37 4.51
 6.5 4.55
6.54 4.6
6.75 4.64
6.86 4.68
7 4.72
7.1 4.75
7.23 4.78
7.35 4.82

AHORA hallamos los caudales

PROBABILIDAD CAUDALES
0.01 154.70
0.1 125.18
0.5 104.53
1 94.00
3 78.10
5 70.46
 10 59.32
20 47.34
25 43.00
30 39.49
40 33.51
50 28.34
60 23.60
70 18.85
75 16.58
80 14.10
90 8.32
95 4.39
97 2.33
99 -1.18
99.9 -5.31

FALTA GRAFICO
´-´
Años ordenados Q MAY A MENOR K
1986 95.30 3.01
1963 83.93 2.65
1974 68.66 2.17
1984 65.28 2.06
1997 63.41 2.00
1985 53.32 1.68
1962 51.43 1.63
1972 50.92 1.61
1976 47.68 1.51
1975 45.88 1.45
2017 44.72 1.41
1968 41.65 1.32
1973 41.40 1.31
1971 40.94 1.29
1978 39.75 1.26
1988 36.10 1.14
1989 34.06 1.08
1987 33.54 1.06
1970 31.99 1.01
1994 31.49 0.99
1977 30.86 0.98
1958 30.28 0.96
1979 28.42 0.90
1961 26.80 0.85
1991 26.42 0.83
1967 26.10 0.82
1960 24.67 0.78
1969 23.26 0.73
1959 23.14 0.73
 1996 22.58 0.71
1964 20.41 0.64
2018 20.33 0.64
1993 20.26 0.64
1995 17.19 0.54
1957 14.92 0.47
1990 13.80 0.44
1965 13.42 0.42
2009 13.24 0.42
2016 12.40 0.39
1966 10.62 0.34
2019 10.44 0.33
1992 9.03 0.29
2011 4.42 0.14
2015 4.23 0.13
1983 4.22 0.13
2008 2.94 0.09

Cv = desviacion estandar / media

COEFICIENTE DE FOST
1 3 5
2.33 1.88 1.64
 2.4 1.92 1.67
2.47 1.96 1.7
2.54 2 1.72
2.61 2.04 1.75
2.68 2.08 1.77
2.75 2.12 1.8
2.82 2.15 1.82
2.89 2.18 1.84
2.96 2.22 1.86
3.02 2.25 1.88
3.09 2.28 1.89
3.15 2.31 1.91
3.21 2.34 1.92
3.27 2.37 1.94
3.33 2.39 1.95
3.39 2.42 1.96
3.44 2.44 1.97
3.5 2.46 1.98
3.55 2.49 1.99
3.6 2.51 2
3.65 2.53 2.01
3.68 2.54 2.02
3.73 2.57 2.01
3.78 2.6 2
 3.82 2.62 2
3.88 2.63 2
3.92 2.64 2
3.96 2.65 2
4.01 2.66 1.99
4.05 2.66 1.97
4.09 2.66 1.97
4.11 2.66 1.96

TR(años) TR =100/P
10000.00
1000.00
200.00
100.00
33.33
20.00
10.00
5.00
4.00
3.33
2.50
2.00
1.67
1.43
1.33
1.25
1.11
1.05
1.03
1.01
1.00
K-1 (K-1)² (K-1)³ PRO. EMPIRICA (%)
2.01 4.0452 8.135895 2.13
1.65 2.7288 4.507845 4.17
1.17 1.3673 1.598750 6.25
1.06 1.1292 1.199922 8.33
1.00 1.0072 1.010884 10.42
0.68 0.4688 0.321007 12.50
0.63 0.3907 0.244251 14.58
0.61 0.3709 0.225902 16.67
0.51 0.2565 0.129918 18.75
0.45 0.2023 0.090977 20.83
0.41 0.1706 0.070458 22.92
0.32 0.0999 0.031569 25.00
0.31 0.0949 0.029245 27.08
0.29 0.0863 0.025339 29.17
0.26 0.0655 0.016764 31.25
0.14 0.0198 0.002784 33.33
0.08 0.0058 0.000442 35.42
0.06 0.0036 0.000214 37.50
0.01 0.0001 0.000001 39.58
-0.01 0.0000 0.000000 41.67
-0.02 0.0006 -0.000016 43.75
-0.04 0.0019 -0.000081 45.83
-0.10 0.0104 -0.001061 47.92
-0.15 0.0234 -0.003590 50.00
-0.17 0.0273 -0.004507 52.08
-0.18 0.0308 -0.005398 54.17
-0.22 0.0486 -0.010713 56.25
-0.27 0.0703 -0.018642 58.33
-0.27 0.0722 -0.019419 60.42
 -0.29 0.0822 -0.023558 62.50
-0.36 0.1261 -0.044758 64.58
-0.36 0.1278 -0.045690 66.67
-0.36 0.1296 -0.046656 68.75
-0.46 0.2088 -0.095380 70.83
-0.53 0.2795 -0.147786 72.92
-0.56 0.3181 -0.179443 75.00
-0.58 0.3316 -0.190965 77.08
-0.58 0.3382 -0.196679 79.17
-0.61 0.3699 -0.224972 81.25
-0.66 0.4417 -0.293544 83.33
-0.67 0.4491 -0.300932 85.42
-0.71 0.5109 -0.365153 87.50
-0.86 0.7405 -0.637163 89.58
-0.87 0.7506 -0.650236 91.67
-0.87 0.7514 -0.651304 93.75
-0.91 0.8226 -0.746140 95.83
TOTAL 19.5775 12.74

NTE DE FOSTER - RYBKIN T

10 20 25 30
1.28 0.84 0.67 0.52
1.29 0.84 0.66 0.51
1.3 0.83 0.65 0.5
1.31 0.82 0.64 0.48
1.32 0.82 0.63 0.47
1.32 0.81 0.62 0.46
1.33 0.8 0.61 0.44
1.33 0.79 0.59 0.43
1.34 0.78 0.58 0.41
1.34 0.77 0.57 0.4
1.34 0.76 0.55 0.38
1.34 0.74 0.54 0.36
1.34 0.73 0.52 0.35
1.34 0.72 0.51 0.33
1.34 0.71 0.49 0.31
1.33 0.69 0.47 0.3
1.33 0.68 0.46 0.28
1.32 0.66 0.44 0.26
1.32 0.64 0.42 0.24
1.31 0.63 0.4 0.22
1.3 0.61 0.39 0.2
1.29 0.59 0.37 0.18
1.27 0.57 0.35 0.16
1.26 0.55 0.32 0.14
1.25 0.52 0.29 0.12
 1.23 0.5 0.27 0.1
1.21 0.48 0.25 0.085
1.19 0.46 0.24 0.07
1.18 0.44 0.22 0.057
1.15 0.41 0.2 0.041
1.13 0.39 0.19 0.027
1.11 0.37 0.17 0.01
1.09 0.35 0.15 0.006

TR =100/PROBABILIDAD
PROBABILIDAD EMPIRICA =( NUMERO/ (n+1))*100

K= CAUDAL/MEDIA
 40 50 60 70 75 80 90 95
0.25 0 -0.25 -0.52 -0.67 -0.84 -1.28 -1.64
0.24 -0.02 -0.27 -0.53 -0.68 -0.85 -1.27 -1.61
0.22 -0.03 -0.28 -0.55 -0.69 -0.85 -1.26 -1.58
0.2 -0.05 -0.3 -0.56 -0.7 -0.85 -1.24 -1.55
0.19 -0.07 -0.31 -0.57 -0.71 -0.85 -1.23 -1.52
0.17 -0.08 -0.33 -0.58 -0.71 -0.85 -1.22 -1.49
0.16 -0.1 -0.34 -0.59 -0.72 -0.85 -1.2 -1.45
0.14 -0.12 -0.36 -0.6 -0.72 -0.85 -1.18 -1.42
0.12 -0.13 -0.37 -0.6 -0.73 -0.85 -1.17 -1.38
0.11 -0.15 -0.38 -0.61 -0.73 -0.85 -1.15 -1.35
0.09 -0.16 -0.39 -0.62 -0.73 -0.85 -1.13 -1.32
0.07 -0.18 -0.41 -0.62 -0.74 -0.85 -1.1 -1.28
0.05 -0.19 -0.42 -0.63 -0.74 -0.84 -1.08 -1.24
0.04 -0.21 -0.43 -0.63 -0.74 -0.84 -1.06 -1.2
0.02 -0.22 -0.44 -0.64 -0.73 -0.83 -1.04 -1.17
0 -0.24 -0.45 -0.64 -0.73 -0.82 -1.02 -1.13
-0.02 -0.25 -0.46 -0.64 -0.73 -0.81 -0.99 -1.1
-0.03 -0.27 -0.47 -0.64 -0.72 -0.81 -0.97 -1.06
-0.05 -0.28 -0.48 -0.64 -0.72 -0.8 -0.94 -1.02
-0.07 -0.29 -0.48 -0.64 -0.72 -0.79 -0.92 -0.98
-0.08 -0.31 -0.49 -0.64 -0.71 -0.78 -0.9 -0.95
-0.1 -0.32 -0.5 -0.64 -0.7 -0.76 -0.867 -0.914
-0.12 -0.33 -0.5 -0.64 -0.69 -0.75 -0.842 -0.882
-0.13 -0.34 -0.5 -0.63 -0.68 -0.74 -0.816 -0.85
-0.14 -0.35 -0.51 -0.62 -0.67 -0.72 -0.792 -0.82
-0.16 -0.36 -0.51 -0.62 -0.66 -0.71 -0.768 -0.79
-0.17 -0.37 -0.51 -0.61 -0.66 -0.7 -0.746 -0.746
-0.18 -0.38 -0.51 -0.61 -0.65 -0.68 -0.724 -0.724
-0.2 -0.39 -0.51 -0.6 -0.64 -0.67 -0.708 -0.708
-0.21 -0.39 -0.51 -0.6 -0.63 -0.65 -0.681 -0.681
-0.22 -0.4 -0.51 -0.59 -0.62 -0.64 -0.661 -0.661
-0.23 -0.4 -0.51 -0.58 -0.6 -0.62 -0.641 -0.641
-0.25 -0.41 -0.51 -0.57 -0.59 -0.61 -0.622 -0.622
 97 99 99.9
-1.88 -2.33 -3.09
 -1.84 -2.25 -2.95
-1.79 -2.18 -2.81
-1.75 -2.1 -2.67
-1.7 -2.03 -2.54
-1.66 -1.96 -2.4
-1.61 -1.88 -2.27
-1.57 -1.81 -2.14
-1.52 -1.74 -2.02
-1.47 -1.66 -1.9 TP
-1.42 -1.59 -1.79
-1.38 -1.52 -1.68
-1.33 -1.45 -1.58
-1.28 -1.38 -1.48
-1.23 -1.32 -1.39
-1.19 -1.26 -1.31
-1.14 -1.2 -1.24
-1.1 -1.14 -1.17
-1.06 -1.09 -1.11
-1.01 -1.04 -1.05
-0.97 -0.99 -1
-0.93 -0.945 -0.952
-0.895 -0.905 -0.909
-0.859 -0.867 -0.87
-0.827 -0.832 -0.833
-0.795 -0.799 -0.8
-0.766 -0.769 -0.769
-0.739 -0.74 -0.741
-0.711 -0.714 -0.714
-0.689 -0.69 -0.69
-0.667 -0.667 -0.667
-0.645 -0.645 -0.645
-0.625 -0.625 -0.625