Escenarios de Cambio climático en Colombia y la

agricultura: Impactos sobre productividad

Andy Jarvis, Julian Ramirez, Emmanuel Zapata, Peter Laderach,
Edward Guevara
Program Leader, Decision and Policy Analysis, CIAT
 Contenido
• La importancia de tener
buenos predicciones de
clima para poder estimar
impactos
• La demanda de informacion
para la agricultura
• Un breve resumen de los
modelos
• Impactos en productividad
• Impactos en pestes y
enfermedades
• Perspectivas para el futuro
 La demanda - resolucion
• Agricultura es una industria de nicho

• Entonces necesitamos datos de clima

relevantes para caracterizar el nicho
• Escala: 1km, 90m?
 La demanda - variables
• Necesitamos multiples variables

–Temperatura

Menos importantes

Mas certidumbre
• Max, min, media

–Precipitacion
– Humedad relativa
– Radiacion solar
– Vientos
– …….
 La demanda - tiempos
• Necesitamos como minimo datos
mensuales
• Para algunas aplicaciones detallados (ej.
modelos mechanisticos) necesitamos
datos diarios
• 2050 y 2080 son irrelevantes para la toma de decision en
agricultura
• Estamos buscando pronosticos para variabilidad climatica
(within season, seasonal, annual, Nino/Nina)
• Y para cambio en linea base: 2020-2030
 La demanda - certidumbre
• Los cultivos son suprememente sensibles a sus
condiciones climaticos
• Para adaptaciones especificos, necesitamos
alta certidumbre
• Faltando certidumbre, trabajamos en
resiliencia (pero es mas dificil)
Los modelos de pronostico de clima
 Los modelos
• Empezo con los GCMs
– Grillas grandes, muy complejos
• Vamos hacia los RCMs
– Grillas mas pequenhas, igualmente complejos
Modelos GCM : “Global Climate Models”

• 21 “global climate models” (GCMs) basados en ciencias

atmosféricas, química, física, biología
• Se corre desde el pasado hasta el futuro
• Hay diferentes escenarios de emisiones de gases
INCERTIDUMBRE POLITICO (EMISIONES), Y
INCERTIDUMBRE CIENTIFICO (MODELOS)
 Mensaje 1

En la agricultura, las
diferentes
escenarios de
emisiones no son
importantes: de
aqui a 2030 la
diferencia entre
escenarios es
minima
 CCCMA-CGCM3.1
BCCR-BCM2.0 CCCMA-CGCM2 CCCMA-CGCM3.1-T63 CNRM-CM3 IAP-FGOALS-1.0G
T47

GISS-AOM GFDL-CM2.1 GFDL-CM2.0 CSIRO-MK3.0 IPSL-CM4 MIROC3.2-HIRES

MIROC3.2-MEDRES MIUB-ECHO-G MPI-ECHAM5 MRI-CGCM2.3.2A NCAR-PCM1 UKMO-HADCM3

 CCCMA-CGCM3.1
BCCR-BCM2.0 CCCMA-CGCM2 CCCMA-CGCM3.1-T63 CNRM-CM3 IAP-FGOALS-1.0G
T47

GISS-AOM GFDL-CM2.1 GFDL-CM2.0 CSIRO-MK3.0 IPSL-CM4 MIROC3.2-HIRES

MIROC3.2-MEDRES MIUB-ECHO-G MPI-ECHAM5 MRI-CGCM2.3.2A NCAR-PCM1 UKMO-HADCM3

 Mensaje 2

La incertidumbre cientifico SI es
relevante para la agricultura: tenemos
que tomar decisiones dentro de un
contexto de incertidumbre
Y
Depender de un limitado numero de
GCM es peligroso
 Bases de Datos

• Bases de datos de CIAT para 2030 y 2050

• Para elaboración de senderos de adaptacion

http://gisweb.ciat.cgiar.org/GCMPage/
 Cambio en
Cambio en Cambio en Incertidumbre
Cambio en meses
Region Departamento Temperatura estacionalidad de entre modelos
Precipitacion consecutivos
media precipitacion (StDev prec)
secos
Amazonas Amazonas 12 2.9 1.4 0 135
Amazonas Caqueta 138 2.7 -1.3 0 193
Amazonas Guania 55 2.9 -3.2 0 271
Amazonas Guaviare 72 2.8 -2.9 -1 209
Amazonas Putumayo 117 2.6 0.6 0 170
Andina Antioquia 18 2.1 1.3 0 129
Andina Boyaca 50 2.7 -3.9 -1 144
Andina Cundinamarca 152 2.6 -2.6 0 170
Andina Huila 51 2.4 1.0 0 144
Andina Norte de santander 73 2.8 -0.4 0 216
Andina Santander 51 2.7 -2.4 0 158
Andina Tolima 86 2.4 -3.1 0 148
Caribe Atlantico -74 2.2 -2.9 2 135
Caribe Bolivar 90 2.5 -1.8 0 242
Caribe Cesar -119 2.6 -1.3 0 160
Caribe Cordoba -11 2.3 -3.8 0 160
Caribe Guajira -69 2.2 -1.8 0 86
Caribe Magdalena -158 2.4 -1.8 0 153
Caribe Sucre 10 2.4 -4.1 -1 207
Eje Cafetero Caldas 252 2.4 -4.2 -1 174
Eje Cafetero Quindio 153 2.3 -4.1 -1 145
Eje Cafetero Risaralda 158 2.4 -3.5 -1 141
Llanos Arauca -13 2.9 -6.4 -1 188
Llanos Casanare 163 2.8 -5.7 -1 229
Llanos Meta 10 2.7 -5.4 -1 180
Llanos Vaupes 46 2.8 -1.4 0 192
Llanos Vichada 59 2.6 -2.6 0 152
Pacifico Choco -157 2.2 -1.2 0 148
Sur Occidente Cauca 172 2.3 -1.6 0 168
Sur Occidente Narino 155 2.2 -1.4 0 126
Sur Occidente Valle del Cauca 275 2.3 -5.1 -1 166
 La demanda vs. la oferta
Demanda GCMs RCMs GCMs con
downscaling
empirico

Alta resolucion No Moderado Si

Variables Si Si No

Frecuencia Si Si No

Certidumbre Moderado Baja Moderado

Entonces que hacemos frente todo esto?
Entonces que hacemos frente todo esto?
• No hay una sola estrategia gana-gana
• Necesitamos multiples acercamientos para mejorar
la base de informacion acerca de escenarios de
cambio climatico
– Desarollo de RCMs (multiples: PRECIS NO ES SUFICIENTE)
– Downscaling empirico, metodos hybridos
– Probamos diferentes metodologias
• Se requiere flujo de informacion (CCC):
compartimos, comparemos, charlamos
(chismoseamos)
Un análisis sectorial para Colombia
 Un sector con mucho cultivo
permanente
3.500.000
Distribucion de cultivo Área (ha)

3.000.000 Distribucion de cultivo Pdn (Ton)

2.500.000

2.000.000

1.500.000

1.000.000

500.000

0
 Actual Temperatura (%) Precipitación (%)
Cultivo Núm.
Área (ha) Pdn (Ton) 2-2.5ºC 2.5-3ºC -3-0% 0-3% 3-5%
Deptos
Arroz total 26 460,767 2,496,118 64.6 35.4 15.7 23.6 60.7
Cebada 4 2,305 3,939 47.2 52.8 0.0 28.5 71.5
Maíz 31 626,616 1,370,456 80.5 19.5 27.7 37.1 35.2
Sorgo 14 44,528 137,362 97.0 3.0 33.8 3.8 62.4
Trigo 6 18,539 44,374 69.0 31.0 0.2 68.4 31.5
Ajonjolí 6 3,216 2,771 100.0 0.0 69.0 28.5 2.5
Fríjol 25 124,189 146,344 84.6 15.4 10.7 40.4 48.9
Soya 6 23,608 42,937 0.3 99.7 0.0 0.0 100.0
Maní 4 2,278 2,586 91.0 9.0 0.0 47.2 52.8
Algodón 15 55,914 126,555 98.0 2.0 14.6 55.7 29.7
Papa 13 163,505 2,883,354 71.5 28.5 2.6 27.1 70.4
Tabaco rubio 12 9,082 15,509 31.7 68.3 16.9 47.3 35.8
Hortalizas 14 20,265 270,230 84.9 15.1 16.1 28.7 55.2
Banano exportación 2 44,245 1,567,443 100.0 0.0 26.9 73.1 0.0
Cacao 27 113,921 60,218 40.2 59.8 17.3 53.2 29.5
Caña de azúcar 6 235,118 3,259,779 99.6 0.4 1.1 0.0 98.9
Tabaco negro 5 5,376 9,648 33.6 66.4 17.9 75.2 6.9
Flores 2 8,700 218,122 100.0 0.0 0.0 16.1 83.9
Palma africana 14 154,787 598,078 54.8 45.2 54.2 36.3 9.5
Caña panela 24 219,441 1,189,335 77.8 22.2 6.1 33.8 60.2
Plátano exportación 1 19,187 209,647 100.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
Coco 10 16,482 127,554 100.0 0.0 10.7 69.3 19.9
Fique 8 19,651 21,687 78.1 21.9 0.3 55.1 44.6
Ñame 9 25,105 261,188 100.0 0.0 46.7 53.3 0.0
Yuca 31 194,572 2,107,939 70.9 29.1 39.8 41.4 18.9
Plátano no exportable 31 375,232 3,080,718 79.8 20.2 7.2 36.1 56.6
Frutales 18 148,574 1,417,919 72.5 27.5 7.7 22.5 69.8
Café 17 613,373 708,214 84.7 15.3 8.2 28.8 63.1
 The Model: EcoCrop
• So, how does it work?

It evaluates on monthly basis if there

are adequate climatic conditions
within a growing season for
…and calculates the climatic suitability of the
temperature and precipitation…
resulting interaction between rainfall and
temperature…
Impactos en Colombia: cambio (%) en
productividad a nivel Nacional
Cambio adaptabilidad (%) 2050-A2

-2

-4

-6

-8

-10

-12

-14
Cambio adaptabilidad (%) 2050-A2
-16

-18
Cambios promedios por departamento
Cambio promedio en adaptabilidad

15

10

Cambio promedio en adaptabilidad

-5

-10

-15
Dos casos diferentes: Bolivar vs. Cauca
30,00

20,00

10,00

0,00

-10,00

-20,00

Bolivar
-30,00
Cauca

-40,00

-50,00

-60,00
 Conclusiones preliminares
• Cultivos permanentes (66.4% del PIB de 2007)
seriamente afectados: y son cultivos de
inversiones de largo plazo
• Tema de seguridad alimentaria, y pobreza:
muchas de los cultivos afectados son de
agicultores pequenos
• Claras prioridades nacionales (por ejemplo. Costa
Caribe, cultivos especificos)
• Prioridades locales: enfoque hacia seguridad
alimentario
 Mensaje 3
Hay retos y oportunidades: el pais
deberia tener una estrategia para
enfrentar ambos
Un Ejemplo mas local

El susto de café en Cauca

 Climas mueven hacia arriba
Tmedia
Tmedia Tmedia Ppt total Ppt
Rango anual
anual anual anual an
Altitudinal cambio
actual futuro actual fut
(ºC)
190-500 25.54 27.70 2.16 5891
501-1000 23.47 25.66 2.19 3490
1000-1500 21.29 23.50 2.21 2537
1500-2000 18.36 20.58 2.22 2519
2000-2500 15.60 17.82 2.22 2555
2500-3000 13.33 15.54 2.21 2471

Temperatura media reduce por 0.51oC por cada 100m en la

zona cafetero. Un cambio de 2.2oC equivale a una diferencia
de 440m.
 Suitability in
Cauca
• Significant changes to
2020, drastic changes
to 2050
• The Cauca case:
reduced coffeee
growing area and MECETA
changes in geographic
distribution. Some
new opportunities.
 Mensaje 4

Localmente va a ver cambios

drasticos con la geografia de los
cultivos cambiando
Minimising impacts: Breeding for beans (Phaseolus
vulgaris L.) towards 2020
 How are beans standing up currently?

Growing season (days) 90

Minimum absolute
Growing season (days) 90 Killing temperature (°C) 0 200
rainfall (mm)
Minimum optimum
Parameters determined 363
Minimum absolute rainfall (mm)
Killing temperature (°C) 0 13.6
based on statistical temperature (°C) Maximum optimum
450
rainfall (mm)
analysis of current bean
Minimum absolute
Minimum optimum
17.5
13.6 temperature (°C) Maximum absolute
growing environments
temperature (°C)
Maximum optimum rainfall (mm)
710
from the Africa and LAC 23.1
Minimum optimum temperature (°C)
17.5
Bean Atlases.
temperature (°C) Maximum absolute
25.6
temperature (°C)
What will likely happen?

2020 – A2

2020 – A2 - changes
 Technology options: breeding for drought
and waterlogging tolerance
40 14

Change in suitable areas [>80%] (%)

Benefited areas (million hectares)

Cropped lands Currently cropped lands
35 Drought 12
Some 22.8% (3.8 million 30 tolerance Non-cropped lands Not currently cropped lands
Global suitable areas 10
ha) would benefit from 25
8
Waterlogging
drought tolerance 20
tolerance 6
15
improvement to 2020s 10 4

5 2
0
0
-25% -20% -15% -10% -5% None +5% +10% +15% +20% +25%
Ropmin Ropmax Not benefited
Crop resilience improvement
 Technology options: breeding for heat and
cold tolerance
14
70
Currently cropped lands

Change in suitable areas [>80%] (%)

Benefited areas (million hectares)

Cropped lands 12 Not currently cropped lands
60
Some 42.7% (7.2 Non-cropped lands
50 Cold Global suitable areas 10
million ha) would tolerance
40 8
benefit from heat 30 6
tolerance 20
4
improvement to 10
Heat
tolerance 2
2020s 0
-2.5ºC -2ºC -1.5ºC -1ºC -0.5ºC None +0.5ºC +1ºC +1.5ºC +2ºC +2.5ºC 0
Crop resilience improvement Topmin Topmax Not benefited
 Distribución del arroz
en Colombia por
sistemas de producción
 Climate
General climate change description
characteristic

Average Climate Change Trends of Espinal

The rainfall increases from 1409 millimeters to 1476.2 millimeters in 2050 passing through 1364.5 in 2020
General
Temperatures increase and the average increase is 2.24 ºC passing through an increment of 0.72 ºC in 2020
climate
The mean daily temperature range increases from 10.9 ºC to 11.38 ºC in 2050
characteristics
The maximum number of cumulative dry months keeps constant in 3 months

The maximum temperature of the year increases from 34.8 ºC to 37.77 ºC while the warmest quarter gets hotter by 2.5 ºC in 2050
Extreme The minimum temperature of the year increases from 21.8 ºC to 23.78 ºC while the coldest quarter gets hotter by 2.17 ºC in 2050
conditions The wettest month gets wetter with 213.45 millimeters instead of 212 millimeters, while the wettest quarter gets wetter by 10.05 mm in
The driest month gets wetter with 45.9 millimeters instead of 41 millimeters while the driest quarter gets wetter by 9.85 mm in 2050

Climate
Overall this climate becomes more seasonal in terms of variability through the year in temperature and less seasonal in precipitation
Seasonality

The coefficient of variation of temperature predictions between models is 3.03%

Variability
Temperature predictions were uniform between models and thus no outliers were detected
between
The coefficient of variation of precipitation predictions between models is 12.44%
models
Precipitation predictions were uniform between models and thus no outliers were detected

250 40 Current precipitation

Precipitation 2050
Precipitation 2020
35
Mean temperature 2020
200 Mean temperature 2050
30 Current mean temperature
Maximum temperature 2020
Maximum temperature 2050
) 25 )
m C Current maximum temperature
150 (º
(m e
Minimum temperature 2020
n r Minimum temperature 2050
o u
t
ti 20
a
ti ra Current minimum temperature
e
ip p
c100 m

Espinal
e
r e
15 T
P

10

2020 y
50

0
1 2 3 4 5 6
Month
7 8 9 10 11 12
0

2050
These results are based on the 2050 climate compared with the 1960-2000 climate. Future climate data is derived from 18 GCM models from the 3th (2001)
and the 4th (2007) IPCC assessment, run under the A2a scenario (business as usual). Further information please check the website http://www.ipcc-
data.org
 Climate
General climate change description
characteristic

Average Climate Change Trends of Sikasso

The rainfall increases from 1061.65 millimeters to 1185.42 millimeters in 2050 passing through 1100.64 in 2020
General climate Temperatures increase and the average increase is 2.65 ºC passing through an increment of 1.05 ºC in 2020
characteristics The mean daily temperature range increases from 13.71 ºC to 13.75 ºC in 2050
The maximum number of cumulative dry months decreases from 8 months to 7 months

The maximum temperature of the year increases from 37.41 ºC to 40.9 ºC while the warmest quarter gets hotter by 2.98 ºC in 2050
Extreme The minimum temperature of the year increases from 14.74 ºC to 17.02 ºC while the coldest quarter gets hotter by 2.54 ºC in 2050
conditions The wettest month gets wetter with 300.47 millimeters instead of 282.08 millimeters, while the wettest quarter gets wetter by 14.07 mm in 2050
The driest month gets wetter with 2.86 millimeters instead of 0.81 millimeters while the driest quarter gets wetter by 30.71 mm in 2050

Climate
Overall this climate becomes more seasonal in terms of variability through the year in temperature and less seasonal in precipitation
Seasonality

The coefficient of variation of temperature predictions between models is 4.37%

Variability
Temperature predictions were uniform between models and thus no outliers were detected
between
The coefficient of variation of precipitation predictions between models is 11.68%
models
Precipitation predictions were uniform between models and thus no outliers were detected

350 45 Current precipitation

Precipitation 2050
40 Precipitation 2020
300 Mean temperature 2020
Mean temperature 2050
35
Current mean temperature
250 Maximum temperature 2020
30 Maximum temperature 2050
Precipitation (mm)

Temperature (ºC)
Current maximum temperature
200 25 Minimum temperature 2020
Minimum temperature 2050
Current minimum temperature
150 20

Sikasso,
15
100
10

Mali
50
5

0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Month

These results are based on the 2050 climate compared with the 1960-2000 climate. Future climate data is derived from 18 GCM models from the 3th (2001) and the
4th (2007) IPCC assessment, run under the A2a scenario (business as usual). Further information please check the website http://www.ipcc-data.org
 Como adaptamos?
• Necesitamos saber que hacemos, como
POLITICAS PUBLICOS Y PRIVADOS

INVESTIGACION Y DESARROLLO
lo hacemos, cuando lo hacemos y
donde?
• Primero paso es analisar el problema

TECNOLOGICO
• Segundo, analisar opciones de
adaptacion
• Evaluar costo-beneficio para el sector
• Implementar
• HAZLO AHORA!
BUEN AGRONOMIA
a.jarvis@cgiar.org