CVG3147- Assignment

Limit States Design and Statistical Concepts

1. In a class, the average grade is 65, with a standard deviation of 12. What grade do you
need to obtain in order to rank in the top 5%, 2%, and 1% of the class. Assume the grades
follow a normal distribution.

2. A large number of identical steel beams were tested in the lab to determine their
bending resistance. The mean value was found to be R=100 kNm with a standard
deviation of σ R =10 kNm. Identical beams are to be used in an industrial plants, where
the specified loads induce a bending moment averaging F=50 kNm with a standard
deviation σ F = 20 kNm. Assuming that both the resisting and acting moments follow a
normal distribution, calculate:

a. The probability of the resisting moments being less than 80 kNm

b. The probability of the resisting moments being less than 70 kNm
c. The probability of the acting moments being over 80 kNm
d. The probability of the acting moments being over 70 kNm
e. The probability of failure for a beam. (Hint: For this item, define an excess resistance
function E=R-F and find the probability of E being less than zero)
f. The probability of failure for cases 1 to 7 in the following table. For each case, compare
your results to those of the reference case (already solved in question 2e) and comment
on the difference.

Case R (kNm) σ R (kNm) F (kNm) σ F (kNm)

Reference 100 10 50 20

1 100 20 50 20
2 100 5 50 20
3 100 10 50 30
4 100 10 50 10
5 50 10 25 20
6 200 10 100 20
7 100 10 100 20

3. Objective of this exercise:

To illustrate (in a simplistic manner) the procedure that limit states codes have used to
come up with the partial safety factors for α D , α L , …associated with dead, live loads, etc.
The process starts with a specified target probabilities of failures (items 3.a, 3.b) followed
by a determination of load factors (item 3c).

The dead load acting on a structure has an average value D1 =120kN and a coefficient of
variation of 0.2 while the live load has an average value L1 = 90kN with a coefficient of
variation of 0.5.
a. Find the total load ( Pf 1 =dead load +live load) value which corresponds to a probably
=1% of being exceeded. (Hint: Define a total load Function Pf 1 = D1 + L1 , and find a
value Pf 10 corresponding to a probably =1% of being exceeded).

b. Under a different loading scenario, the average dead load becomes D2 =100kN and the
average live load becomes L2 =110kN while the coefficients of variation remain
unchanged from case a above, find the total load ( Pf 2 =dead load D2 +live load L2 ) value
associated with a probability = 1% of being exceeded. (Hint: Define a total load Function
Pf 2 = D2 + L2 and find a value Pf 2 0 corresponding to a probably of 1% of being
exceeded).

Note: In both cases 3a and 3b, the loads Pf 10 , Pf 2 0 obtained are higher than simply adding
the mean dead load and mean live load in each case.

c. From your findings in cases 3.a and 3.b, you are required to determine load factors α D
and α L that meet the following two conditions:
α D D1 + α L L1 =
Pf 10
α D D2 + α L L2 =
Pf 2 0

Note: Like most partial safety factors in codes, both α D and α L are higher than unity,
i.e., they act as magnification factors of the loads.

4. The probability of a structure being struck by a tornado during a short time interval is
1/1,000,000. The probability of the structure being struck by an earthquake during the
same time interval is 1/500,000.
1. Find the probability of both events occurring in the specified time interval.
2. Find the probability of any of the two events occurring in the specified time frame.