climate

Article
The Relationships between Climate Variability and
Crop Yield in a Mountainous Environment: A Case
Study in Lamjung District, Nepal
Shobha Poudel * and Rajib Shaw
Department of Natural Resources, Graduate School of Global Environmental Studies, Kyoto University,
Yoshida Honmachi, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto 606-8501, Japan; shaw.rajib@gmail.com
* Correspondence: p.shabhu@gmail.com; Tel.: +81-757-536-101; Fax: +81-757-536-103

Academic Editors: Angelika Ploeger, Sisira S. Withanachchi and Engin Koncagul

Received: 2 December 2015; Accepted: 23 February 2016; Published: 2 March 2016

Abstract: Several studies have concluded that mountainous countries such as Nepal are more
vulnerable to climate change; thus, a changing climate should have a significant impact on crop yields.
This work aims to explore the impact of climate change on major crop yields in the mountainous
parts of Nepal and to determine their relationships based on a regression model between historical
climatic data and yield data for food crops. The study starts with an analysis of the last 30 years of
climatic data from Lamjung district. Mann-Kendall and Sen’s Slope methods have been used for the
trend analysis and quantification. The results showed an increase in temperature of approximately
0.02 ˝ C to 0.07 ˝ C per year in different seasons and a mixed trend in precipitation. Although there
was no significant impact of the climate variables on the yields of all crops, the regression analysis
revealed negative relationships between maize yield and summer precipitation and between wheat
yield and winter minimum temperature, and a positive relationship between millet yield and summer
maximum temperature.

Keywords: climate change; impacts; crop yield variability; mountainous region; Nepal

1. Introduction
In the mountainous country of Nepal, more than 60% of the population is dependent on
agriculture, which contributes 35% of the gross domestic product [1]. Based on this statistic, it is
clear that growth and development in the agricultural sector has a direct contribution on the national
economy and livelihood of the people. Several crops can be cultivated in Nepal; however, five major
crops, i.e., rice, maize, wheat, millet and barley, dominate the agricultural sector [2]. These crops
represent more than 90% of the total grain production and cultivated area in Nepal [2]. Rice and millet
are the major summer crops, maize is a spring/summer crop, and wheat and barley are the winter
crops (Appendix 1). Among them, rice and maize are the primary crops that contribute more than half
of the total food grain production of Nepal and are grown from the lowlands in the Terai (70 meters
above sea level) through high hills (2830 meters above sea level) [3]. Thus, the study of the various
impacts of climate changes on these crop yields is urgently required for planning the future food
availability in the country.
According to 5th assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [4],
compared to the 20th century, the average annual temperature will rise by more than 2 ˝ C in most of
the South Asia by the mid of 21st century, and by the late of 21st century, the temperature increases
will exceed 3 ˝ C and as much as 6 ˝ C in high altitudes under a high-emission scenario. Similarly, under
a low-emission scenario, the average temperature will rise by less than 2 ˝ C in the 21st century, but at
higher altitudes, the temperatures will rise by as much as 3 ˝ C. It is anticipated that the increasing rate

Climate 2016, 4, 13; doi:10.3390/cli4010013 www.mdpi.com/journal/climate

Climate 2016, 4, 13 2 of 19

of the average temperature in the Himalaya will be greater than the global average. The increasing
temperatures may affect the timing and quantity of precipitation, which would consequently change
the water availability [5].
Several studies have shown that the rate of temperature increase is higher at higher altitudes [6–8].
Changing temperatures and erratic rainfall pattern are affecting crop production in Nepal [9].
Similarly, the loss of local crops and domestic animals, changes in cropping patterns, scarcity of
water due to the drying up of water resources, and increasing incidences of diseases and pests have
also been observed [10,11]. Due to its heterogeneous topography, there is a high risk of natural disasters,
such as glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs), avalanches, landslides, etc., in the higher altitudes and
floods in the lower region. Hence, mountainous countries such as Nepal are more vulnerable to climate
change [12].
There is ample evidence to link the increase in extreme weather events, such as droughts and
floods, with agricultural production. Due to the winter drought in 2008/2009, there was a huge loss
in agricultural production in Nepal [13,14]. Because of the erratic monsoon weather conditions in
India during 2009, the production of the main crops decreased, resulting in food crises in neighboring
countries [15]. Wassmann [16] also argued that small household farmers, especially in marginalized
regions of Asia, experience most of the negative effects of climate change because agriculture is
adversely impacted in this region [17].
In Nepal, a majority of the area is covered by hills, high mountains and lowland areas; therefore,
there is a huge variation in weather. Similar changes can have different consequences at different
altitudes. As the temperature increases, the higher mountainous areas may benefit, whereas lowland
areas may suffer badly. Some studies have shown that the impact of global warming in the mountainous
area could have a positive impact for some vegetables and crops, such as tomato, cauliflower, wheat,
maize, and rice [5,18]. However, the decreasing winter precipitation may have an adverse impact on
winter crops, which need more water or irrigation facilities.
Shrestha [19] said that the growth and development of plants, outbreaks of pests and diseases,
and water availability could be affected by changes in the temperature and precipitation patterns,
thereby eventually affecting crop yields. Climate change will have a significant impact on agriculture,
primarily through its effect on crop yields [20,21]. Most of these studies seeking to understand the
physical effects of climatic variables on crop yield were conducted through crop simulation models.
However, small changes in the climatic variables, specifically in temperature, are often excluded [22].
Therefore, regression models based on historical yield data and climate data are relatively accurate for
the prediction of changes in the yield due to climate change [23–25].
Based on the climate change vulnerability, overall risk exposure and sensitivity data provided by
the Nepal Government, Lamjung district, one of the 75 districts of Nepal, was selected. Lamjung is
ranked as high risk in terms of climate change impacts [26]. According to the report, the risk of flash
floods, landslides, and GLOFs in Lamjung is also very high. Therefore, climate changes will also likely
have a significant impact on the crop yield in this district; thus, a detailed study is required for this
region. Hence, this study focuses on understanding how the climate is changing and discusses its
impact on crop yields in a mountainous region of Nepal. The objectives of this study, therefore, include
time series analysis of precipitation, temperature and yield of selected crops. Similarly, to explore the
impact of climate change on crop yield, the relationship between yield and climatic variables are also
analyzed through a regression model of climate and crop yield anomalies.

2. Study Area
Lamjung district is located in the western mountainous region of Nepal (Figure 1). It is situated
between 27˝ 55’N and 28˝ 25’N latitude and 85˝ 00’E and 85˝ 50’E longitude, and its elevation varies
from 596 meters to 7893 meters above sea level. It has an area of 1692 km2 and a population of 167,724.
Due to the heterogeneous topography and elevation variations, the temperature and precipitation
varies seasonally and spatially. The summer (June–August) maximum temperature in the lower part
Climate 2016, 4, 13 3 of 19

of the 2016,
district ˝
Climate 4, 13can reach 40 C or higher, whereas the minimum temperature during winter is below 3 of 19
freezing in most of the area. The distribution of precipitation also depends on the spatial location and
spatial
time of location
the year. andThe time
monsoon of the year. Theapproximately
contributes monsoon contributes80% of the approximately 80% of the
annual precipitation annual
during the
precipitation
summer during
season, the summer
and westerly windsseason,
deliverand westerly
winter winds deliver winter
(December–February) (December–February)
precipitation. Precipitation is
precipitation.
in the form ofPrecipitation is in the form of regions
rain in the lower-elevation rain in the
andlower-elevation
falls as snow in regions and falls as snow
the higher-elevation in the
regions,
higher-elevation
though there is no regions, though there
clear separation lineisdue
no toclear
theseparation line due to
seasonal variations in the seasonal variations
temperature. During the in
temperature.
other Duringautumn
two seasons, the other(September–November)
two seasons, autumn (September–November)
and spring (March–May), and spring (March–May),
the region receives
the region receives
occasional occasional
precipitation. These precipitation.
precipitation These precipitation
events are often in events are often
the form in the form
of hailstorms or of hailstorms
snowstorms.
orissnowstorms.
It reported that It there
is reported
is less that there during
snowfall is less snowfall
winter, and during
heavy winter, and heavy andsnow
and unpredictable unpredictable
or hail in
snow spring
early or hail in early
[5]. Mostspring [5]. Most importantly,
importantly, Lamjung
Lamjung district is onedistrict
of theis one
most ofvulnerable
the most vulnerable
districts districts
(due to
(due to climate
climate change)change)
among among the 75 districts
the 75 districts in Nepal in [26].
Nepal [26].the
Over Over
lastthe
twolast two decades,
decades, long-term
long-term dry
dry spells
spellsunpredictable
and and unpredictable rainfall
rainfall werewere observed
observed several
several timestimes in Lamjung
in Lamjung district
district [27].
[27].
Broadly, five
Broadly, five types
types of of land
land cover
cover patterns
patterns are
are found
found in in Lamjung.
Lamjung. The land cover map developed
from Landsat images taken in 2014 2014 is
is presented
presented in in Figure
Figure 1. 1.

Figure 1. Land cover map of Lamjung district, developed from Landsat 8 images.

3. Data
Dataand
andMethod
Method
3.1. Data
3.1. Data
The research primarily depends on datasets that were obtained from several government
The research primarily depends on datasets that were obtained from several government
departments and local agencies. Similarly, key informant interviews (KIIs) were conducted with
departments and local agencies. Similarly, key informant interviews (KIIs) were conducted with
local people and relevant government and non-governmental organizations regarding climate
local people and relevant government and non-governmental organizations regarding climate change
change and impacts on crop yield in Lamjung.
and impacts on crop yield in Lamjung.

3.1.1. Climatic
3.1.1. Climatic Datasets
Datasets
Data from
Data from one
one meteorological
meteorologicaland andtwo tworainfall stations
rainfall are are
stations available in Lamjung.
available The
in Lamjung.
meteorological station records the daily maximum temperature, minimum
The meteorological station records the daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature, temperature, and
accumulated
and precipitation;
accumulated thethe
precipitation; rainfall stations
rainfall also
stations record
also recorddaily-accumulated
daily-accumulatedprecipitation.
precipitation. All
All the
the
data were available from 1980 to 2012. These datasets were obtained from the Department
data were available from 1980 to 2012. These datasets were obtained from the Department of Hydrology of
Hydrology
and and Meteorology
Meteorology of the Government
of the Government of Nepal. The of summary
Nepal. Theofsummary of the
the climatic climatic
datasets datasets in
is depicted is
depicted
Table 1. in Table 1.
Climate 2016, 4, 13 4 of 19

Table 1. Considered climatic data.

Latitude (N) and Duration

Station Elevation (m) Climate Variables
Longitude (E) (Monthly)
˝ ˝
Gharedhunga 1120 (28 28’, 84 35’) Precipitation (mm)
˝ ˝
Khudi 855 (28 15’, 84 55’) Precipitation (mm) and temperature (˝ C) 1980–2012
˝ ˝
Kunchha 823 (28 12’, 84 34’) Precipitation (mm)
Source: Department of Hydrology and Meteorology 2014, Nepal.

3.1.2. Agricultural Datasets

Five major crops—rice, maize, millet, wheat and barley—were selected for this study because
these crops contribute more than 80% of the total grain production in Lamjung. These data were
obtained from the Ministry of Agricultural Development, Nepal. They collected the data from the
District Agriculture Development Office Lamjung, Nepal. The crop cultivation, growth and harvesting
periods presented in Table 2 were provided by the [28].

Table 2. Considered crops and cropping period.

Crop Cultivation Period Frequency Data Available

From June to November
Rice
April to August
Maize From May to August
Annual 1970–2013
Wheat From November to March
Millet From July to December
Barley From November to March

3.1.3. Key Informant Interviews

The field survey in Lamjung was conducted through KIIs. Each KII was designed to collect
qualitative information on the community‘s perception of climate change and experience of
extreme weather events, such as erratic rainfall, floods, droughts, landslides, and so on. It was
conducted with a selected representative from the Nepal Agriculture Research Council (NARC),
District Agriculture Development Offices, Ministry of Agricultural Development, Department of
Hydrology and Meteorology, non-governmental organizations, local leaders, women’s groups, and
farmer groups.

3.2. Trend Analysis

The seasonal and annual trends were analyzed for the following climate variables:
‚ Temperature (seasonal and annual maximum and minimum at Khudi station).
‚ Precipitation (seasonal and annual accumulated quantities at Gharedhunga, Khudi,
and Kunchha stations).
‚ Yield of rice, maize, millet, wheat and barley.
The existence of positive or negative trends among all the considered variables was determined
using nonparametric trend test methods. The Mann–Kendall trend test is a nonparametric rank-based
procedure, robust against the influence of extremes. In particular, this technique can be adopted in
cases with non-normally distributed time series data, that is, data containing outliers and nonlinear
trends [29,30]. A Mann-Kendall test with a 90% confidence limit was used as a monotonic trend test.
In the testing process, the null hypothesis (H0 ) is that there is no trend in the population from which
the dataset is drawn. The alternate hypothesis (H1 ) is that there is a trend in the population. The H0
will be rejected if p ď 0.1.
Similarly, the trend was quantified using Sen’s slope method. Sen’s slope is another index to
quantify the trend using the nonparametric procedure developed by Sen [31]. The slope is computed
using Equation (1).
xj ´ xk
Qi “ for i “ 1, 2, 3 , . . . , N (1)
j´k
Climate 2016, 4, 13 5 of 19

where xj and xk are data values at time j and k (j > k), respectively. The median of these N values of Qi
is Sen’s estimator of slope. If N is odd, then Sen’s estimator is computed by Qmed = Q (N + 1)/2, and if
N is even, the Sen’s estimator is computed by Qmed = [QN/2+ Q (N + 2)/2]/2. Finally, Qmed is tested
by a two-sided test at a 100% (1 – α) confidence interval, and the true slope is obtained.

3.3. Climate-Crop Yield Relationship

Correlation coefficient and multivariate regression analyses have been performed to determine the
climate-crop yield relationship using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS). The Pearson’s
correlation coefficient was used to measure the strength of the association between crop yield and
climatic variability. This produced a linear association. The range of correlation coefficients is ´1
to +1. The complete dependency between two variables is expressed by either ´1 or +1, and 0
represents the complete independency of the variables. The calculation of the correlation coefficient is
performed using Equation (2), in which x represents the independent variable and y represents the
dependent variable.
Σ px ´ xq py ´ yq
r“ b (2)
Σ px ´ xq2 py ´ yq2 s

Multivariate regression analysis of climate anomalies and crop yield anomalies has been
performed to confirm the percentage of the response variable variation from the predictor variable
that is explained by a linear model in Equation (3):

∆Y “ constant ` pα ˆ ∆Pptq ` pβ ˆ ∆Tempmin q ` pγ ˆ ∆Tempmax q (3)

where ∆Y is the observed change in the yield due to temperature and precipitation in the same
season as crop growth and α, β, and γ are coefficients of the precipitation, minimum temperature
and maximum temperature during the season, respectively. Similarly, ∆ppt, ∆Tempmin , ∆Tempmax
are the observed changes in precipitation and minimum and maximum temperatures of the seasons,
respectively, during the study period.

4. Results and Analysis

The seasonal and annual trend analysis of accumulated precipitation and seasonal and annual
maximum and minimum temperatures have been analyzed using Sen’s Slope and Man-Kendall
methods. Similarly, trend analysis of the crop yield and the relationship with the climatic variables has
been performed. Regression analysis was carried out between annual crop yield anomalies and climate
anomalies. The detrended time series data for seasonal maximum temperature, seasonal minimum
temperature and seasonal precipitation for respective crop cultivation seasons were considered the
explanatory variables, and detrended crop yield was considered the dependent variable.

4.1. Precipitation Trend

The total annual precipitation from 1980 to 2012 for three stations was analyzed using the
Mann–Kendall and Sen’s slope tests. The total annual precipitation at the Kunchha and Gharedhunga
stations increased by 10.48 mm/year and 4.42 mm/year, respectively, whereas at the Khudi station,
it decreased by 3.47 mm/year (Figure 2). Table 3 depicts the Sen’s slope value of seasonal precipitation
for all three stations in Lamjung. The result is somewhat similar to the results obtained in the
Kaligandai basin, the basin next to Lamjung [5]. Additionally, several other studies have revealed that
the precipitation trend in Nepal varies due to the interaction of heterogeneous topography with the
monsoon and westerly wind systems [32].
Precipitation exhibited an increasing trend during summer at all three stations, a decreasing
trend during winter, and mixed trends during the spring and autumn. The negative trend results in
December precipitation were significant (p < 0.1), reflecting the changes in the winter precipitation (see
Figure 3).
Climate 2016, 4, 13 6 of 19
Climate 2016, 4, 13 6 of 19
Climate 2016, 4, 13 6 of 19

FigureFigure 2. Annual
2. Annual precipitationtrends
precipitation trendsatatthe
theGharedhunga,
Gharedhunga, Kunchha
Kunchhaand Khudi
and stations
Khudi fromfrom
stations 1980 1980
Figure 2. Annual precipitation trends at the Gharedhunga, Kunchha and Khudi stations from 1980
to 2012.
to 2012.
to 2012.

Figure 3. Seasonal precipitation trends at Gharedhunga, Kunchha and Khudi stations from 1980 to 2012.

Table 3. Sen’s slope values for seasonal and annual precipitation at the three stations.

Figure
Figure 3.3.Seasonal
Seasonal Gharedhunga
precipitation trends
precipitation trends Kunchha
at Gharedhunga, Kunchha
at Gharedhunga, and Khudi
Kunchha Khudi Khudi
and stations from 1980from
stations to 2012.
1980
Station/ Sen’s Sen’s Sen’s
to Season
2012. slope p-value Significance slope p-value Significance slope p-value Significance
Alpha
Table 3. Sen’s slope values for seasonal and annual precipitation value
(mm) (mm) (mm) at the three stations.
Winter 0.4313 0.0004 Yes 0.4165 0.0120 Yes 0.4314 0.0221 Yes 0.1
Spring Gharedhunga
1.5212 0.0914 Yes 2.1332 Kunchha No
1.2755 1.6916 0.8807 Khudi
No 0.1
Station/ Table 3. Sen’s
Sen’s2.9624 0.0717 slope values for seasonal
Sen’s and annual precipitation at
Sen’s the three stations.
Summer Yes 4.4342 0.0557 Yes 5.7511 0.9701 No 0.1
Alpha
SeasonAutumnslope1.1888
p-value
0.2227 Significance
No slope
1.4964 p-value
0.4092 Significance
No slope
1.5178 p-value Yes
0.0181 Significance0.1
Gharedhunga Kunchha Yes Khudi value
Annual(mm)4.422 0.288 No 10.488
(mm) 0.063 −3.479
(mm) 0.565 No 0.1
Winter 0.4313 Sen’s
Station/Season 0.0004 Yes 0.4165
Sen’s 0.0120 Yes 0.4314
Sen’s 0.0221 Yes Alpha
0.1
Spring 0.0914 p-value Yes
1.5212 slope Significance
2.1332 p-value
slope 1.2755 Significance
No slope
1.6916 p-value
0.8807 Significance
No 0.1
value
(mm) (mm) (mm)
Summer 2.9624 0.0717 Yes 4.4342 0.0557 Yes 5.7511 0.9701 No 0.1
Winter
Autumn 1.1888 0.4313
0.2227 0.0004 No Yes 0.4165
1.4964 0.0120
0.4092 NoYes 0.4314
1.5178 0.0221
0.0181 Yes
Yes 0.1
0.1
Spring 1.5212 0.0914 Yes 2.1332 1.2755 No 1.6916 0.8807 No 0.1
Annual
Summer 4.422 2.96240.288 0.0717 No Yes 10.488
4.4342 0.0630.0557 Yes
Yes −3.479
5.7511 0.565
0.9701 No
No 0.10.1
Autumn 1.1888 0.2227 No 1.4964 0.4092 No 1.5178 0.0181 Yes 0.1
Annual 4.422 0.288 No 10.488 0.063 Yes ´3.479 0.565 No 0.1
Climate 2016, 4, 13 7 of 19
Climate 2016, 4, 13 7 of 19
Climate 2016, 4, 13 7 of 19

4.2. Temperature Trend

4.2. Trend
4.2. Temperature
Temperature Trend
The minimum and
The and maximum values values of thethe seasonal and and annual temperatures
temperatures of Khudi Khudi station
The minimum
minimum and maximum maximum values of of the seasonal
seasonal and annual
annual temperatures of of Khudi station
station
have
have been
been analyzed
analyzed in
in this
this study.
study. The
The widely
widely used
used nonparametric
nonparametric method
method (Man–Kendall
(Man–Kendall test) was
test) was
have been analyzed in this study. The widely used nonparametric method (Man–Kendall test) was
adopted todetermine
adopted determine the significance of the trend, and it was quantified using Sen’s The slope. The
adopted to to determinethe thesignificance
significance of the trend,
of the and and
trend, it wasit quantified
was quantifiedusing Sen’s
usingslope.
Sen’s slope. overall
The
overall
results results are presented in Table 4. The maximum annual temperature increased by 0.02
˝ °C· yr 1,
´−1
overall are presented
results in Table
are presented in4. The4.maximum
Table The maximum annual temperature
annual increased
temperature by 0.02
increased by 0.02C¨ year
°C·yr−1,,
whereas the minimum
whereas minimum annualtemperature temperature increasedbyby 0.07 °C·
˝ yr between
−1
´ 1 1980 and 2012.
whereas the the minimum annual annual temperatureincreased increased by 0.07
0.07C¨°C·year between1980
yr−1 between 1980 and
and 2012.
2012.
Although
Although both the minimum and maximum temperatures increased, the increasing rate of the
Although both both thethe minimum
minimum and and maximum
maximum temperatures
temperatures increased,
increased, the the increasing
increasing raterate of of the
the
minimum
minimum temperature
temperature was was more
wasmore than
morethan three
thanthree
threetimes
timesfaster than
faster that
than of the maximum temperature. The
minimum temperature times faster than thatthat of the
of the maximum
maximum temperature.
temperature. The
slopeslope
The of theof raterate
the andand thethevalue
valueof of
the
the change
change ininseasonal
seasonal and
and annual
annual maximum
maximum and minimum
and minimum
slope of the rate and the value of the change in seasonal and annual maximum and minimum
temperatures areshown
temperatures shown in Figures44and and 5, and in Table 4. According to Shrestha [33], the maximum
temperaturesare are shownininFigures
Figures 4 and5 5, and
andininTable
Table4. According
4. According to Shrestha
to Shrestha [33], thethe
[33], maximum
maximum air
air temperature
temperature has has increased
increased since since
1978, 1978,
based based
on an on an analysis
analysis of 49 of 49
stations stations
across across
Nepal Nepal
from 1971from
to 1971
1994.
air temperature has increased since 1978, based on an analysis of 49 stations across Nepal from 1971
to 1994. Similarly,Action
Similarly, Practical Action Nepal [32] found an increasing trend in maximum air
to 1994. Practical
Similarly, Practical Nepal [32] found
Action Nepal an [32]
increasing
foundtrend in maximum
an increasing air temperature
trend in maximum across
air
temperature
almost the wholeacross almost
country. the whole country.
temperature across almost the whole country.

Figure 4. Seasonal and annual maximum temperature trends at the Khudi

Khudi station
station from
from 1980
1980 to
to 2012.
2012.
Figure 4. Seasonal and annual maximum temperature trends at the Khudi station from 1980 to 2012.

Seasonal and annual minimum temperature trends at the

the Khudi station
station from 1980
1980 to 2012.
2012.
Figure 5.
Figure 5. Seasonal and annual minimum temperature trends at the Khudi
Khudi station from
from 1980 to
to 2012.
Climate 2016, 4,
Climate 2016, 4, 13
13 88ofof19
19

Table 4. Sen’s slope values for the seasonal and annual temperatures of the Khudi station.
Table 4. Sen’s slope values for the seasonal and annual temperatures of the Khudi station.
Temperature/ Maximum Temperature Minimum Temperature Alpha
Season p-value Sen’sMaximum
slope (°C) Significance
Temperature p-value Sen’s slopeTemperature
Minimum (°C) Significance Value
Alpha
Temperature/Season
Winter 0.004 0.079 ˝ Yes 0.053 0.051 ˝ Yes 0.1
Value
p-value Sen’s slope ( C) Significance p-value Sen’s slope ( C) Significance
Spring 0.212 0.039 No 0.119 0.057 No 0.1
Winter 0.004 0.079 Yes 0.053 0.051 Yes 0.1
SummerSpring
0.082 0.212
0.039 0.039
Yes No
0.0240.119
0.04
0.057
Yes
No 0.1
0.1
Autumn
Summer 0.010 0.082 0.06 0.039 Yes Yes 0.0360.024 0.0550.04 Yes
Yes 0.10.1
Autumn
Annual 0.133 0.010 0.02 0.06 No Yes 0.036
0.0001 0.055
0.07 Yes
Yes 0.10.1
Annual 0.133 0.02 No 0.0001 0.07 Yes 0.1

4.3. Crop Yield Trends

4.3. Crop Yield Trends
The yield trend of summer and winter crops, i.e., maize, wheat and barley, showed that the
yieldThe yield crops
of these trend of
hassummer
changed and winter crops,
significantly i.e.,time
over maize,
(p <wheat
0.05).and barley, showed
However, the yieldthat
hasthe yield of
fluctuated
these crops has changed significantly over time (p < 0.05). However, the yield has
over time. Wheat had the highest regression coefficient versus time. The yield of wheat increasedfluctuated over time.
Wheat had the
26.83 kg/ha highest
every year. regression
In contrast,coefficient versus time.
barley decreased (−1.20The yieldevery
kg/ha) of wheat
year.increased
Similarly,26.83
maizekg/ha
yield
every year. In contrast, barley decreased (´1.20 kg/ha) every year. Similarly,
increased (p < 0.05) 16 kg/ha every year, whereas rice and millet yield increased 4.71 kg/ha maize yield increased
and
(p < 0.05) 16 kg/ha every year, whereas rice and millet yield increased 4.71 kg/ha and
0.26 kg/ha every year, but these changes were not significant (p > 0.05) with respect to the time variable.0.26 kg/ha
every
Figureyear, but these
6 shows changes
the trends and were
Tablenot significant
5 indicates the (p > 0.05)
Sen’s slope with respect
value of thetocrop
theyields
time variable. Figure 6
in Lamjung.
shows the trends and Table 5 indicates the Sen’s slope value of the crop yields in Lamjung.

Figure 6. Crop yield trends for rice, maize, millet, wheat and barley from 1980 to 2012.
Figure 6. Crop yield trends for rice, maize, millet, wheat and barley from 1980 to 2012.
Table 5. Quantification of the crop yield trend with Sen’s slope value.
The pattern of the crop yield in Lamjung appears to be very similar to the pattern throughout
the wholeCrops
country. Pantp-Value
[34] revealed Sen’s
that the yield
Slope of rice, maize
(kg/ha) and wheat increased
Significance Alpha Valueby 1.18%,
2.36% and 3.39%, respectively, from 1990 to 2010 all over the country. Similarly, Joshi [35] detected a
Rice 0.297 4.71 No 0.05
significantMaize
increasing trend
0.003for rice, maize and 16 wheat. Hence, theYes yields of the major
0.05 crops are
increasingMillet
in Nepal. In addition
0.761 to climate change,0.26 several influentialNo
factors, such as 0.05
introduction of
new seeds Wheat 0.0001
and agriculture technology, better26.83
irrigation, and betterYescrop management0.05 practices,
might beBarley
responsible for 0.029
the increased crop yield. Therefore, weYeshave tried to 0.05
´1.20 determine the
climate-yield relationship and yield variation due to climate change in the following section through
correlation and multivariate
The pattern regression
of the crop yield analysis.
in Lamjung appears to be very similar to the pattern throughout the
whole country. Pant [34] revealed that the yield of rice, maize and wheat increased by 1.18%, 2.36% and
3.39%, respectively, from 1990 to 2010 all over the country. Similarly, Joshi [35] detected a significant
Climate 2016, 4, 13 9 of 19

increasing trend for rice, maize and wheat. Hence, the yields of the major crops are increasing in
Nepal. In addition to climate change, several influential factors, such as introduction of new seeds and
agriculture technology, better irrigation, and better crop management practices, might be responsible
for the increased crop yield. Therefore, we have tried to determine the climate-yield relationship and
yield variation due to climate change in the following section through correlation and multivariate
regression analysis.

4.4. Climate-Crop Yield Relationship

To determine the relationship between climatic variability and major crop yields (kg/ha),
a correlation analysis was performed. The results reveal that there was a strong and positive
relationship between the climatic variability and the yield of millet and wheat, whereas there were
no or negligible relationships between climatic variability and the yields of rice, maize and barley.
While testing the effects of seasonal minimum and maximum temperatures, a significant relationship
was observed in the yield of millet. There was a strong correlation between millet and the seasonal
maximum temperature (r = +0.734), and a normal correlation with minimum temperature (r = +0.336).
The yield of millet increases with increasing maximum and minimum temperatures. There was
no significant effect of precipitation on the yield of millet (r = +0.069). Similarly, the coefficient of
maximum temperature was +0.4023, indicating a positive relationship between the annual maximum
temperature and the yield of wheat. The coefficients for minimum temperature and precipitation were
+0.2539 and ´0.033, respectively. The correlations between the climatic variables and the crop yields
are depicted in Figure A1a–e.

4.5. Changes in Yield Due to Climate Trends

To test whether there is a direct relationship between climatic variables and crop yields in Lamjung,
a multi-linear regression analysis between anomalies of mean yields for maize, rice, wheat, barley
and millet, and precipitation and air temperature during the current climatic conditions (1980 to 2012)
was performed. The anomalies of each climatic variable and crop yield were computed using the
first-difference time-series, i.e., the difference in values from one year to the next. Figure 7a shows the
summer crop yield anomalies, and Figure 7b depicts the winter crop yield anomalies.
A multivariate regression model was used to confirm the impact of climate change on crop
yield. The anomalies in climate variables and crop yields can be used to estimate the quantitative
relationships between climate change and crop yield. The non-climate influences, such as introduction
of agro-technology, better seeds, better crop management practices, use of fertilizer, etc., were omitted
when computing the respective anomalies. Linear relationships between detrended crop yield,
i.e., yield anomalies in Lamjung, and anomalies in climate variables, such as air temperature and
precipitation, were developed to determine the crop yield change due to changes in climate variables
during the study period. These relationships were derived as follows:

∆Y “ constant ` pα ˆ ∆Pptq ` pβ ˆ ∆Tempmin q ` pγ ˆ ∆Tempmax q (4)

where, ∆Y is the observed change in the yield due to temperature and precipitation in the same
season as crop growth, and α, β, and γ are the coefficients of precipitation, minimum temperature
and maximum temperature in that season, respectively. Similarly, ∆ppt, ∆Tempmin , and ∆Tempmax
are the observed changes in precipitation and minimum and maximum temperatures of the season,
respectively, during the study period.
Climate 2016, 4, 13 10 of 19
Climate 2016, 4, 13 10 of 19

Figure (a)(a)Anomalies
7. 7.
Figure Anomaliesininthe
thesummer
summer crops
crops yield; (b) Anomalies
yield; (b) Anomaliesininthe
thewinter
wintercrops
crops yield.
yield.

The The multi-linearregression

multi-linear regressionanalysis
analysis results
results are
are shown
shownin inTable
Table66for
forrice,
rice,maize,
maize,wheat,
wheat,barley
barley
and millet. The results suggest that the model is able to describe the variations
and millet. The results suggest that the model is able to describe the variations in the yields of in the yields of food
food
crops
crops ranging
ranging from37%
from 37%(0.372)
(0.372)ininthe
thecase
case of
of millet
millet to
to only
only7.8%
7.8%(0.078)
(0.078)ininthe
thecase ofof
case rice (see
rice Table
(see 6). 6).
Table
Though the regression results show very few significant relationships between yield and climate
Though the regression results show very few significant relationships between yield and climate
variables, these coefficients can be used to assess the real effects of climate variables in the changes in
variables, these coefficients can be used to assess the real effects of climate variables in the changes
the food crop yields considered in this study. In addition, the sign of the coefficients indicates the
in the food crop yields considered in this study. In addition, the sign of the coefficients indicates
direction of change in the yield versus climate variable changes [36]. In the case of maize yield,
the direction of change in the yield versus climate variable changes [36]. In the case of maize yield,
climate variables account for only 34.7% of the yield changes, whereas 65.3% of the variation in
climate variables account for only 34.7% of the yield changes, whereas 65.3% of the variation in maize
maize yield is explained by other influential factors, such as better seeds, better crop management
yield is explained
practices by other influential
and introduction factors, such as Similarly,
of new agro-technology. better seeds,
the better crop analysis
regression management practices
indicates an
and introduction of new agro-technology. Similarly, the regression analysis indicates
R-squared value of 0.249, implying that the impact of climate variables accounts for only 24.9% of the an R-squared
value
wheatof yield
0.249,changes,
implying that
while the of
75.1% impact of climate
the variation variables
in wheat yield isaccounts
explainedforby only
other 24.9%
factors,of theaswheat
such the
yield
usechanges, while
of fertilizers, etc.75.1% of the variation
Additionally, only 37.2%in wheat
of the yield is explained
variations in millet by other
yield are factors, such
controlled by as
thethe
useclimatic
of fertilizers,
variables. etc. Additionally, only 37.2% of the variations in millet yield are controlled by the
climatic variables.
Table 6. Multivariate regression analyses of detrended crop yields.
Table 6. Multivariate regression analyses of detrended crop yields.
Crop Ppt_S Tmax_S Tmin_S Ppt_W Tmax_W Tmin_W R2
Coeff. 1.179 22.0 −21.7 - - - 0.078
Rice
Crop Ppt_S Tmax_S Tmin_S Ppt_W Tmax_W Tmin_W R2
p-value 0.186 0.735 0.596 - - -
Coeff.Coeff. 1.179−0.27 17.2
22.0 12.1
´21.7 - - - - - - 0.347 0.078
Rice Maize
p-value
p-value 0.186 0.003 0.735
0.669 0.596
0.632 - - - - - -
Coeff.Coeff. ´0.27−0.01 17.2
76.0 12.1
−10.8 - - - - - - 0.372 0.347
Maize Millet
p-value
p-value 0.003 0.811 0.669
0.001 0.632
0.421 - - - - - -
Coeff.Coeff. ´0.01 - 76.0- ´10.8
- 0.39 - −6.5 - −29.1 - 0.249 0.372
Millet Wheat
p-value
p-value 0.811 - 0.001- 0.421
- 0.187- 0.613 - 0.014 -
Coeff.Coeff. - - - - -
- 0.027
0.39 −2.19
´6.5 −9.68
´29.1 0.11 0.249
Wheat Barley
p-value - - - 0.187 0.613 0.014
p-value - - - 0.86 0.751 0.116
Coeff. - - - 0.027 ´2.19 ´9.68 0.11
Barley
Coeff. =p-value
coefficient, S =- summer, W- = winter, Tmax = maximum temperature, Tmin0.116
= minimum
- 0.86 0.751
temperature,
Coeff. Ppt =S precipitation.
= coefficient, = summer, W = winter, Tmax = maximum temperature, Tmin = minimum temperature,
Ppt = precipitation.
Climate 2016, 4, 13 11 of 19

Precipitation in winter was an important factor that can increase yield potential for wheat and
barley. Extreme temperatures had adverse effects on the yield, as increases and decreases in the
maximum and minimum temperatures have negative impacts. Similarly, summer precipitation had
a positive impact on rice, while maize and millet showed negative effects. Therefore, increasing
maximum temperature has positive impacts on all summer crops, and decreases in temperature have
negative impacts. Increases in temperature up to 2 ˝ C will help to increase the crop production in
Nepal [9]. Therefore, the average increase in temperature during the period from 1980 to 2012 of less
than 2 ˝ C must have been favorable to the growth and yield of crops.

4.6. Key Informant Interviews

As described in section 3, the KII was employed as one of the methods in this study to
collect qualitative data regarding climate change and crop production in Lamjung. The results
summarized in this section are based on the responses provided by 16 key informants (two
informants from each organization/group). They were the representatives of NARC, District
Agriculture Development Offices, Ministry of Agriculture, Department of Hydrology and Meteorology,
non-governmental organizations, local leaders, women groups, and farmers groups.

4.6.1. Changes in Temperature

The perception of global warming has been reported based on their experience. The respondents
mentioned that both summer and winter seasons are warmer at present and were not as warm 20 years
ago. Similarly, the emergence of mosquitoes and pests at the altitude of 2016 MSL (Ghalegaun of
Lamjung—a village of nearly 500 households located in the central part of Lamjung) was noted during
the survey. The local people accept it as a consequence of the increased temperature.

4.6.2. Changes in Rainfall Pattern, Snowfall and Water Availability

The key informants were asked to provide information on changes in precipitation and water
availability compared with the last 20 years. They reported that the precipitation pattern has changed
and that they are experiencing untimely and heavy rainfall, winter drought, and other phenomena
more frequently than before. In particular, summer rainfall is more intense in comparison to earlier
years, and they mentioned that previously there used to be heavy snowfall almost every winter and
that the local people in the middle-elevation hill areas used to harvest the snow for use as household
water, but now the amount of precipitation has decreased and falls mostly as rain.

4.6.3. Changes in Crop Production

Different opinions were provided by the key informants regarding crop production changes over
the last 20 years. Some reported that production has increased significantly in comparison to earlier
years, whereas most of them are experiencing more pests and frequent droughts in the middle-elevation
hills and floods in the lower regions. Several informants happily explained that they are now able to
cultivate some vegetables, such as tomato, chilies and cauliflower, in the middle-elevation hills that
were not possible to grow previously.
In summary, a changing trend in climatic variables has been found. Similarly, the timing, intensity
and frequency of snowfall and rainfall have also changed over the last 20 years. In the high region of
Lamjung, people previously had observed a consistent snow cover during the winter, and the greatest
snow accumulation often occurred during January–February. However, currently, the snowfall pattern
has changed, and heavy snowfall occurs in the late autumn or early spring, no-snow conditions prevail
during winter, and the persistence of the snow has also decreased [5,27]. The duration of summer has
increased during this period, and the number of chill days has decreased. Similarly, the occurrence of
existing pests and the emergence of new pests and diseases have been observed over the last 20 years.
These experiences agree with the results obtained from several studies in the region [37].
Climate 2016, 4, 13 12 of 19

5. Discussion
The increasing trend of global warming is more evident in the mountainous areas than in the
plains. Climate change is also likely to change the monsoon precipitation patterns in ways that
could affect the current agricultural production of Nepal. After analyzing the data from the Lamjung
district and conducting KIIs, this study found that there is a changing trend in the climatic variables.
Additionally, the intensity and frequency of snowfall and rainfall have decreased in the higher altitudes
over the last 20 years. The duration of summer has increased during this period, and the number of
cold days has decreased. Similarly, the occurrence of existing pests and the emergence of new pests
and diseases have been observed over the same period. These experiences agree with the results
obtained from several studies in the region, as discussed in earlier sections.
The seasonal precipitation at various stations exhibited variation in trends. The precipitation
in Lamjung is concentrated in the summer, with almost 80% of the annual precipitation falling then.
The decreasing trend in winter precipitation and the increasing trend in summer precipitation indicate
that precipitation in summer is becoming more intense. This could have a negative impact on crops
due to water-induced disasters, such as floods and landslides, which eventually affect the crop
yields. The total annual precipitation has increased at the Kunchha and Gharedhunga stations, but
decreased at the Khudi station. In summary, the annual summer precipitation increased and the
winter precipitation decreased in Lamjung. Joshi [35] also revealed the same trends across Nepal,
where summer precipitation increased and winter precipitation decreased from 1978 to 2008. The
temperature data recorded at the Khudi station revealed that the maximum annual temperature and
minimum annual temperature increased by 0.02 ˝ C¨ year´1 and 0.07 ˝ C¨ year´1 , respectively, between
1980 and 2012.
The five crops studied here are grown in two seasons, with no autumn or spring crops in Lamjung.
The yields of rice, maize and wheat increased by 4.71 kg/ha/year, 16 kg/ha/year and 26.83 kg/ha/year,
respectively, but the increases fluctuated over the years. Similarly, the yield of millet increased steadily,
whereas the yield of barley decreased. These two crops are the major food crops in the mountainous
region of Nepal. The growth yield of barley was suppressed by the increased minimum and maximum
temperatures and decreased precipitation. However, the increased summer temperature contributed
positively to maize yield.

6. Conclusions
This study concludes that climate variables have differential impacts on the yield growth of
different crops. However, winter crops are adversely affected by the current climate trends. The yield
of barley, one of the staple foods in the mountainous region of Nepal, is decreasing due to increased
temperatures and decreased precipitation. On the other hand, though temperature is increasing in
summer, the increases in precipitation have contributed positively to the yield growth of summer
crops. Thus, it is recommended that any programs that are working to minimize the adverse impact of
climate change on food crops production should first consider the crop, such as barley and millet, that
is being most affected by the higher temperatures relative to the other food crops. Moreover, these two
crops are important staple foods in Nepal, especially in the mountainous and hill regions that are also
exposed to higher degrees of vulnerability to climate change.
The results of this research can be used by organizations and researchers to assess the current
climate variability and fluctuations and their impact on food crops. The main shortcoming of this
study is the examination of the entire district as one unit, despite the huge diversity existing within it.
Therefore, further investigation with better spatial and temporal resolution is highly recommended
to better understand the patterns and consequences of extreme weather affecting agriculture in
mountainous regions.

Acknowledgments: The first author would like to express her sincere gratitude to the Government of Japan
and GSS Program (Inter-Graduate School Program for Sustainable Development and Survivability Studies)
Climate 2016, 4, 13 13 of 19

for providing MEXT scholarship and research grant for this research. The authors also wish to thank and
acknowledge the Climate change adaptation and mapping (CCAM) group Nepal for helping with data collection;
and Department of Hydrology and Meteorology; and Ministry of Agricultural Development Nepal for providing
the raw data for this research.
Author Contributions: Shobha Poudel collected and analyzed the data, conducted Key Informants Interviews
(KIIs), and prepared the manuscript. Rajib Shaw has contributed in data analysis and manuscript finalization.
Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflict of interest.
 Climate 2016, 4, 13 14 of 19

Appendix 1
Crop Calendar for major crops in Nepal.
January February March April May June July August September October November December Season
Mountain (Rainfed)
Mai-P Mai-P Mai-H Mai-H Mai-H Summer
Mil-P Mil-P Mil-H Mil-H Summer
Whe-H Whe-H Whe-P Whe-P Winter
Bar-H Bar-H Bar-P Bar-p Winter
Hills (Partial Irrigation/Rainfed)
Rice-TP Rice-TP Rice-H Rice-H Summer
Mai-P Mai-P Mai-H Mai-H Summer
Mil-P Mil-P Mil-H Mil-H Summer
Whe-H Whe-H Whe-H Whe-P Whe-P Whe-P Winter
Bar-H Bar-H Bar-P Bar-P Bar-p Winter
Hill (Irrigated)
Rice-TP Rice-TP Rice-H Rice-H Spring
Mai-P Mai-P Mai-H Mai-H Spring
Whe-H Whe-H Whe-H Whe-P Whe-P Whe-P Winter
Terai (Rainfed)
Rice-TP Rice-TP Rice-H Rice-H Rice-H Summer
Mai-P Mai-P Mai-H Mai-H Summer
Climate
Climate 2016,
2016, 134, 134, 13 Whe-H
4, 2016,
Climate Whe-H Whe-P Whe-P Winter 14 of1419of1419of 19
Terai (Irrigated)
Rice-TP Rice-TP Rice-H Rice-H Summer
Mai-P Mai-P Mai-H Mai-H Spring
Rice-TP
Rice-TP
Rice-TP
Rice-TP Rice-TP
Rice-TP
Rice-TP
Rice-TP Rice-H
Rice-H
Rice-H Rice-H
Rice-H Rice-H Rice-H
Rice-H Spring
Spring
Spring Spring
Mai-HMai-H Mai-H Mai-P Mai-P Winter
Mai-H
Mai-H Mai-H Mai-H
Mai-H Mai-P
Mai-P Mai-P Mai-PMai-P
Mai-P Winter
Winter Winter
Mai-Maize, Whe-Wheat, Mil-Millet, Bar-Barley, P-Plantation, TP-Transplantation, H-Harvesting. Source: Food and Agriculture Organization & World Food Programme (2007),
Mai-Maize,
Mai-Maize, Whe-Wheat,
Whe-Wheat,
Mai-Maize, Mil-Millet,
Mil-Millet,
Whe-Wheat, Bar-Barley,
Bar-Barley,
Mil-Millet, P-Plantation,
P-Plantation,
Bar-Barley,
http://www.lanra.uga.edu/potato/asia/nepal.htm. TP-Transplantation,
TP-Transplantation,
P-Plantation, H-Harvesting.
H-Harvesting.
TP-Transplantation, Source:
Source:
H-Harvesting. FoodFood
Source:andand Agriculture
Agriculture
Food and Organization
Organization
Agriculture & & World
World
Organization & Food
Food
World Programme
Programme
Food Programme
(2007),
(2007), http://www.lanra.uga.edu/potato/asia/nepal.htm.
http://www.lanra.uga.edu/potato/asia/nepal.htm.
(2007), http://www.lanra.uga.edu/potato/asia/nepal.htm.

Plantation/Transplantation
Plantation/Transplantation
Plantation/Transplantation
Plantation/Transplantation Crop
Crop
Crop growing
growing
Crop phase
phase
growing
growing phase
phase Harvesting
Harvesting
Harvesting
Harvesting
Climate 2016, 4, 13 15 of 19

Climate 2016, 4, x 15 of 19

Appendix 2
Appendix 2
Correlation of Rice with maximum, minimum temperature and precipitation

3500 3500

3000 r= 0.3763 3000 r= 0.2211

Rice Yield (kg/ha)

Rice Yield (kg/ha)

2500
2500
2000
2000
1500

1000 1500

500 1000
15 17 19 21 23 27 29 31 33
Minimum temperature (oC) Maximum temperature(oC)

3500

3000 r= -0.0727
Rice Yield (kg/ha)

2500
Coorrelation: r -1 to +1
2000
Ppt r= -0.0727
1500
Tmax r= 0.2211
1000
1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 Tmin r= 0.3763
Percipitation (mm)

(a)
Correlation of Maize with maximum, minimum temperature and precipitation

3000 3000
Maize Yield (kg/ha)

2500
Maize Yield (kg/ha)

r= 0.308 2500 r= 0.102

2000 2000

1500 1500

1000 1000

500 500
5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 25 27 29 31 33 35
Minimum temperature (oC) Maximum temperature (oC)

3000

2500 r= -0.15
Maize Yield (kg/ha)

2000
Coorrelation:r -1 to +1
1500

1000 Ppt r= -0.15

500 Tmax r= 0.102

0 Tmin r= 0.308
0 200 400 600 800 1000
Percipitation (mm)

(b)

Figure A1. Cont.

Climate 2016, 4, 13; doi:10.3390/cli4010013 www.mdpi.com/journal/climate

Climate 2016, 4, 13 Correlation of Barley with maximum, minimum temperature and precipitation 16 of 19
Climate 2016, 4, 13 16 of 19

1300 1300
r= -0.101 r= -0.057
Barley Yield (kg/ha)

Barley Yield (kg/ha)

1100 1100

900 900

700 700

500 500
-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 15 17 19 21 23 25 27
Minimum temperature (oC) Maximum temperature (oC)

1200
1100
Barley Yield (kg/ha)

1000
900 Correlation: r -1 to +1
800
r= -0.169 Ppt r= -0.169
700
600 Tmax r= -0.057
500
Tmin r= -0.101
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Percipitation (mm)
Correlation of Millet with maximum, minimum temperature and precipitation
(c)
1500 1400
1300
r= 0.734
Millet Yield (kg/ha)

Millet Yield (kg/ha)

1300 r= 0.336 1200

1100
1100
1000
900
900
800
700 700
600
500 500
14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34
Minimum temperature (oC) Maximum temperature (oC)

1500
r= 0.069
Millet yiled (kg/ha)

1300

1100 Coorrelation:r -1 to +1

900 Ppt r= 0.069

700 Tmax r= 0.734

500 Tmin r= 0.336

1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500
Percipitation (mm)

(d)
Figure A1. Cont.
Climate 2016, 4, 13 17 of 19
Climate 2016, 4, 13 Correlation of Wheat with maximum, minimum temperature and precipitation 17 of 19

2500 2500
Wheat Yield (kg/ha)

Wheat Yield (kg/ha)

2000 r= 0.2539 r= 0.4023
2000
1500
1500
1000
1000
500

0 500
-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 15 17 19 21 23 25 27
Minimum temperature (oC) Maximum temperature (oC)

2500
Wheat Yield (kh/ha)

2000

1500
Coorrelation:r -1 to +1
1000 r= -0.033 Ppt r= -0.033

500 Tmax r= 0.4023

0 Tmin r= 0.2539
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Percipitation (mm)

(e)
Figure A1. Correlation of rice, maize, millet, barley and wheat with maximum temperature,
Figure A1. Correlation of rice, maize, millet, barley and wheat with maximum temperature, minimum
minimum temperature
temperature and corresponding
and corresponding seasonal seasonal accumulated
accumulated precipitation.
precipitation. (a) Correlation
(a) Correlation of riceofwith
rice
with maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation. (b) Correlation
maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation. (b) Correlation of maize with of maize with
maximum temperature,
maximum temperature, minimum
minimum temperature
temperature andand precipitation.
precipitation. (c)
(c) Correlation
Correlation of barley with
of barley with
maximum temperature,
maximum temperature, minimum
minimum temperature
temperature andand precipitation.
precipitation. (d)
(d) Correlation
Correlation of millet with
of millet with
maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation. (e) Correlation
maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation. (e) Correlation of wheat with of wheat with
maximum temperature,
maximum temperature, minimum
minimum temperature
temperature andand precipitation.
precipitation.

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