Thayer Consultancy Background Brief

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Vietnam: Why is it the Venue for
the Second Trump-Kim Summit?
February 7, 2019

We are working as the Trump – Kim Second Summit looms. Diplomatic sources in
Hanoi report that Vietnam’s special envoy has returned from Pyongyang, a sign that
the Second Summit will be held in Vietnam, although Da Nang or Hanoi is still unclear.
We request your assessment of the following issues:
Q1. There have been many comments on the Second Kim-Trump Summit. From your
point of view what is the most important reason Vietnam has been chosenfor this
event (from both sides)?
ANSWER: Vietnam was one of three or four potential sites for the meeting, Bangkok
and Hawaii were among the top three with Singapore also under consideration. It
appears the there is a preference for the capital city of the ASEAN Chair and that is
why Singapore was chosen fr the first summit last year.
Bangkok was ruled out because of street demonstrations protesting the government’s
delay in holding national elections. It has now been determined that Thai elections will
be held on 24 March and the coronation ceremony for the new king will be held in
May. These new developments could see public protests and domestic instability in
Bangkok that would detract from the summit. Besides, air pollution in Bangkok is a
consideration.
Vietnam was chosen because it suits the interests of the two main parties concerned
and other stakeholders. Chairman Kim Jong-un wants to make an official visit to
Vietnam to demonstrate that his country is not isolated. Vietnam is also in flying
distance from Pyongyang for Kim’s private aircraft. China can provide a fighter escort
over Chinese airspace to provide security.
North Korea trusts Vietnam to be a neutral host that is able to provide a high-quality
venue and tight security. There is no community or group in Vietnam that is a potential
threat to Chairman Kim or that would cause a public disturbance.
Finally, Vietnam has a good diplomatic track record with North Korea. Vietnam
supported North Korea’s membership in the ASEAN Regional Forum and it hosted
quiet talks between North Korea and Japan on the family reunion issue a decade ago.
From time to time North Korea has sent students and delegations to Vietnam to study
its model of reform (doi moi) and opening.
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The United States also views Vietnam a neutral host. Besides, denuclearization of the
Korean peninsula will take years to resolve and Vietnam will be ASEAN Chair in 2020
and a non-permanent member of the United Nations Security Council the following
year. Vietnam has consistently supported nuclear non-proliferation and complied with
UN sanctions. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visited Hanoi last year and singled out
its model of development for North Korea to study.
President Trump has indicated he would like to hold a meeting with President Xi Jin-
ping to discuss trade issues before his deadline of 1st March. Since Trump will be
travelling across the Pacific to meet Kim, Vietnam has featured as a possible venue for
a Trump-Xi meeting.
Vietnam is ready, willing and able to host such a high-level summit, as its hosting of
APEC 2017 demonstrated.
Both China and South Korea are stakeholders. Both support dialogue between North
Korea and the United States. Both countries trust Vietnam to be a neutral host.
Q2. Why Danang? And why Hanoi?
ANSWER: No decision has been made yet on which city in Vietnam will host the second
summit. Da Nang was the first choice for the United States. The city is modern, it has
high-quality accommodation, and traffic is easier to control. Besides Da Nang fits
President Trump’s comfort zone. He stayed in Da Nang when he attended the APEC
Summit in 2017. In 2017 Trump also made an official visit to Hanoi and there is no
pressing need to add another official visit to his schedule.
North Korea favours Hanoi because Chairman Kim want to make an official visit when
he comes to Vietnam. Kim reportedly wants to stay in a city that hosts a North Korean
embassy. And Kim reportedly does not want to travel to a second city for the summit.
Q3. By considering Vietnam, is the U.S .trying to convince North Korea that Pyongyang
can follow Vietnam’s “doi moi” strategy, in order to promote institutional reform?
ANSWER: Vietnam’s model of development (đổi mới) is an important factor in the
United States’ larger strategy of drawing North Korea out of its self-imposed isolation
as part of the larger process of denuclearizing the Korean peninsula. But it is not the
main factor.
Q4. What is the biggest benefit that Vietnam reaps when organizing this event?
ANSWER: The biggest benefit that Vietnam reaps from hosting a second summit
meeting between President Donald Trump and Chairman Kim Jong-un is reaffirmation
that its policy of “diversification and multilateralization” of foreign relations and being
a “reliable partner to all” is the correct policy.
By hosting the second summit, Vietnam gains enormous prestige as a net contributor
to regional and global security. All the major powers have an interest in Vietnam
playing a constructive and independent role in the region. Vietnam gains leverage in
its bilateral relations with all the major stakeholders not to undertake policies that
harm Vietnam’s interests and thus undermine its constructive and independent role
in promoting a peaceful resolution to denuclearization of the Korean peninsula.
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Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Vietnam: Why is it the Venue for the Second
Trump-Kim Summit?” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, February 7, 2019. All
background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.