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Winter Weather

Decision Support Briefing #4 Current Hazards


As of: 6 AM Feb 12, 2019

What Has Changed?


Winter Weather Advisories remain in
effect
Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect.
Gale Warning for ocean through
Wednesday night, Upgraded to Gale
Warning Wednesday non ocean.
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Main Points
Hazard Impacts Location Timing
• Snow and Sleet 4 to 6 inches.
• Snowfall rates of 1-2” per hour late
Heavy morning into early afternoon • Snow and Sleet this morning
Orange, Putnam and Western through late this evening.
Snow and • Reduced visibilities and snow/ice
Passaic County • Precipitation will transition over
covered roadways will create
Sleet difficult travel for morning and to rain late tonight.
evening commute.

• Snow and sleet of 3 to 6 inches.


• Snowfall rates of up to 1” in the • Snow and Sleet this morning.
morning NYC, NE NJ, Lower Hudson
• Transition to freezing rain and
Snow and • Reduced visibilities and snow/ice Valley, Southern CT, parts of
sleet late morning into afternoon.
covered roadways will create Long Island
Sleet • Gradual transition to plain rain
difficult travel for morning and from south to north this evening.
evening commute.
• Ice accum of a tenth to quarter inch
inland. • Late morning into tonight.
Freezing • Ice accum of a few hundredths to a Entire Area. Highest ice • Gradual transition to plain rain
tenth of an inch at the coast. accum across Interior from south to north this evening
Rain • Falling power lines and tree and tonight.
branches possible.

• Around ½ to 1 inch with locally HIghest rainfall amounts for


higher amounts. NYC/NJ metro and coast
Heavy Rain • This evening and tonight.
• Minor Flooding of Urban Areas, where the transition will
Low-lying Roads. occur sooner.

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Summary of Greatest Impacts
Heavy Snow and Sleet: Orange, Putnam and Western Passaic
County
None Limited Elevated Significant Extreme

Snow and Sleet: NYC, NE NJ, Lower Hudson Valley, Southern CT,
parts of Long Island
None Limited Elevated Significant Extreme

Entire Area. Highest ice accum across Interior

None Limited Elevated Significant Extreme

Heavy Rain: Much of the region. Heaviest coast.

None Limited Elevated Significant Extreme

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Snow, Sleet and Ice
Hazards:
 Coast: Winter Weather Advisory in Effect
 2-5” Snow and Sleet, Up to 1/10th inch of ice
 Snowfall rates up to up to 1”/hr in the morning
 Visibility less than ½ mile at times
 Transition over to freezing rain late morning into this
afternoon.
 Gradual transition to plain rain from south to north this
evening into tonight.

 Inland: Winter Storm Warning in Effect


 4-6” Snow and Sleet, Up to ¼‘” of Ice
 Snowfall rates up to 1-2”/hr morning into early
afternoon
 Visibility ¼-½ mile at times
 Precipitation will transition over to a wintry mix mid
aftn into this evening continue into tonight.

Impacts:
 Difficult travel due to snow and ice covered roadways and
reduced visibility which will impact the morning and evening
commutes
 Falling power lines and tree branches possible due to ice
accretion.

Uncertainty:
 Timing of changeover to mixed precipitation and rain. Small
timing differences will have significant impacts on snowfall
and ice totals.
 Note: See next two slide for potential worst case scenarios.
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Probabilistic Snow and Sleet Forecast

If precipitation quickly transitions from snow


to a wintry mix, these lesser snow and sleet
amounts would be realized.

If precipitation is slower to transition from


snow to sleet than forecast, these snow and
sleet amounts could be realized.

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Ice Forecast

Most Likely Ice Accumulation

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Moderate to Heavy Rain
Hazards:
 Rainfall ½ to 1 inch with locally higher
amounts for NYC/NJ metro and coast,
after transition from snow and sleet.
 Lesser amounts across Interior

Impacts:
 Minor Flooding of Urban Areas, Low-
lying Roads, and Small Streams and
Creeks.
 Snow covered roadways and storm
drains may enhance street flooding

Timing:
 Heaviest rain late Tuesday afternoon
and evening

Uncertainty:
Timing of changeover of snow to rain will
impact the amount of runoff and extent of
flooding

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Event Summary
Winter Storm Warnings and Advisories in Effect!

 Potential high travel impact for both the morning and evening commutes

 Snow begins this morning for the NYC metro, and then works northeast across the
remainder of the area

 Precipitation transitions to a wintry mix during the late morning into afternoon hours from
south to north. There is some uncertainty with how quickly this transition occurs. Small
timing differences will have significant impacts on snowfall and ice totals.

 Snow and sleet totals of 2-5 inches along the coast and 4-6 inches inland, before
changeover.

 Ice Accumulations of up to ¼ inch across Interior and 1/10th inch along the coast.

 Rainfall amounts of ½ to 1 inch, mainly coast, including NYC/NJ metro

 Gale Warning in effect for ocean waters 6am Tuesday through 6am Thursday.
 Gale Warning for non ocean waters Wednesday.

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Contact and Next Briefing Information

Next Briefing

This is the final briefing.

Web: Facebook:
http://www.weather.gov/okx/ http://www.facebook.com/NWSNewYorkNY

Phone (public): Twitter:


631-924-0517 http://www.twitter.com/NWSNewYorkNY

YouTube:
E-mail: https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSNewYor
okx.operations@noaa.gov kNY

Disclaimer: The information contained within this briefing is


time-sensitive, do not use after 10 AM Tuesday (02/12/19).

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