Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Second Trump-Kim Summit:
What are the Deliverables?
Carlyle A. Thayer
February 11, 2019

I am writing a report on the upcoming summit between President Trump and

Chairman Kim Jong-un. We request your views on the issues that will be part of the
summit - given that it is the second such summit with the U.S. side maybe less naive
about the issues at stake.
Q1. Do you think there is any chance of a real agreement being reached which could
lead to denuclearization or is this just another diplomatic dance on North Korea's part
to win more concessions without actually doing anything?
U.S. and North Korean negotiators are still trying to nail down the agenda for the
second Trump-Kim summit. It is obvious that there is an impasse following the first
summit. And, as American diplomats are want to say, the president doesn't travel half
way around the world for a photo op. The fact that the summit is scheduled means
that there will be some kind of deliverables. The key issue relates to the extent that
the U.S. will be slightly more flexible in rewarding North Korea for actions that it agrees
to undertake.
UN sanctions have put Kim Jong-un under pressure. Kim is trying to improve his
bargaining position with the US by making an end run to both South Korea and China.
He wants them to press the U.S. to continue the dialogue and to urge the U.S. indicate
how it will respond to specific North Korean steps to denuclearize.
It is likely that some sort of general road map, rather than a detailed agreement, will
be adopted that sets out the principles for the process of phased denuclearization,
what steps North Korea will take and how the United States will respond such as
corresponding measures or simultaneous action in parallel with each other. This could
include a partial lifting of sanctions in response to North Korean moves to
denuclearize.
The main principles will be to denuclearize the Korean peninsula under verification by
inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA); a formal end to
hostilities on the Korean peninsula via a peace treaty, some sort of mutual agreement
not to threaten force (mutual security guarantee), mutual recognition of each other's
security needs, and a moratorium on nuclear and ballistic missile tests.
 2

North Korea has indicated - once again - that it will permanently dismantle the
Yongbyon nuclear facility. The first step would be to admit IAEA inspector, to shut
down operations and eventually dismantle the plutonium and uranium enrichment
facilities. This process will be a protracted one and will depend on "corresponding
measures" by the U.S. such as a partial lifting of economic sanctions.
There are some straws in the wind. In January, the UN Security Council agreed to
exempt four international organisations from sanctions so they could provide
humanitarian aid to North Korea. The U.S. and South Korea are scheduled to conduct
military exercises in March, they could be scaled down as in the past or called off
altogether.
Q2. Do you think any progress has been achieved by the original Trump Kim summit
and subsequent US-North Korean negotiations?
ANSWER: President Trump declared on January 19 "we've made a lot of progress." But
as Mike Pompeo noted, denuclearization would be "a long process' while other U.S.
officials have said "a lot of work remains to be done."
Yes, progress has been made. The U.S. has come to appreciate that the Complete,
Verifiable and Irreversible Dismantlement of North Korea's nuclear weapons program
cannot be imposed by fiat nor can it be implemented immediately. U.S. officials have
become more realistic in their expectations. For example, Secretary Pompeo
mentioned "reduce(ing) North Korea's capacity to build out their program" was part
of the denuclearization process. U.S. Special Representative to North Korea Stephen
Begun volunteered, "We are prepared to discuss many actions that could help build
trust between our two countries." The U.S. is pressing North Korea to provide an
Inventory of its nuclear arsenal at the second summit.
The U.S. is pressing North Korea to provide an Inventory of its nuclear arsenal at the
second summit. This would be a litmus test for the possibility that progress is being
made.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Second Trump-Kim Summit: What are the
Deliverables?,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, February 11, 2019. All
background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself
from the mailing list type, UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.

Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.