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H-Holger Rogner
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Royal Institute of Technology (KTH), Stockholm
Distribution electricity grid gas grid truck dewar railway district heat grid
Energy Examples
Demand projection
Existing system capacity
Time
Relative attributes of electricity generating
technologies
35
30
25
GW
20
15
10
0
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000
Hours
WASP
Wien Automatic System Planning Package
INPUT OUTPUT
• Load projection
• Existing system
• Candidates
technologies
WASP
• Constraints:
• Reliability Build schedule
• Implementation Generation mix
• Fuel supply Costs
• Generation Fuel use
• Emissions Outages / unserved
demand
Emissions
MESSAGE
Model for Energy Supply System Alternatives and their General Environmental
Impacts
INPUT OUTPUT
Energy system
structure (including
vintage of plant and
equipment)
TWh
Base year energy
flows and prices
Energy demand
projections (e.g. MAED) MESSAGE
Technology and
resource options &
their techno-economic Primary and final energy mix by fuel
performance profiles Electricity generating mix by
International fuel technology and fuel
market prices Capacity expansion/retirement
Technical and Emissions & waste streams
policy constraints Resource use (energy, water, land, etc.)
Subsidies, taxes and Trade & import dependence
feed-in tariffs Investment requirements
..and much more Prices
…. and much more
Modelling externalities
Price
Any examples?
PS OK, so we damage the
PP Equilibrium in an environment... how much are
unfettered market you willing to pay to:
- avoid the damage?
- fix the damage?
- live with the damage?
QS Qp Quantity
Summary: Critical steps and features of energy
modelling
Determine geographical scope
Determine temporal scope
Define system boundaries
Determine system detail
Data collection, data generation and energy balances
Model calibration & testing
Introduce constraints gradually (interpretation)
Select future scenario parameters, technology portfolio
and infrastructure characteristics
Transparency & communication
Repeatability
Closing remarks
Energy Planning is not about predicting the future
It is about the analysis and evaluation of a set of
different possible futures
Communication tool (informed policy & decision
making)
No analysis is perfect
Many more “what if” questions need to be explored
New information
Previously plausible assumption no longer stand the
test of time
Energy planning never ends…..
Against the backdrop of contemporary
challenges - SDGs and PA
Fundamental energy system transformation is the only viable
option
Time and resource intensive process
Longevity of energy infrastructure - No quick fixes
No time to lose
One size does not fit all – countries and regions are different
Judge measures as to their climate effectiveness and consistency
with sustainable development
There is no ‘silver bullet’
Local conditions but also cultural factors determine the optimal
supply and technology mix
efficiency geothermal
sources policy
development
large-scale
grid
oil
nuclear
decentralized
urban development
solar
fossil
consumer externality
trade
coal
natural recycling
PV
Sustainable
infrastructure government price
go
marketenergy CCS
power
hydro
plants
solution
wind water
resources affordable
refining
GHGs
accessible
people environment
tariffs
carbon tax
electricity
innovation
biofuels
private sector
gas
storage
clean
pollution
drilling
renewable
hydrogen rural
fracking stand alone
water security