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The Case for the Upgrade and Electrification of the Midland Main Line and a link to HS2
S H E F F I E L D
City Region
St Pancras Station
2
Sheffield Station
Introduction
Electrification and line speed improvements to the MML could
reduce journey times between London and Sheffield. The
conservative estimate of journey time savings is around 12
minutes. However, the scope to deliver further journey time
savings on the Midland Main Line in a way that offers good value
for money is limited. Consequently, alternative ideas and options
are needed. This section considers the engineering feasibility of
a connection to the proposed High Speed Rail network, possibly
in the Tamworth area. There are also a number of operational
issues which would need to be addressed.
Context
SYPTE and emda have commissioned Arup with Volterra
to review the potential benefits that could be delivered from
electrification of the MML and part of the Birmingham to Derby
Line, plus a connection to the proposed High Speed Rail
network. This could be a relatively low cost way to spread the
benefits and is being actively considered by HS2. Arup has
examined the potential journey time reductions that could be
delivered for the MML. A package of line speed improvements
set out in Network Rail’s Business Plan for Control Period 4
(2009-2014) could reduce journey times by around eight minutes
between London and Sheffield. Electrification could reduce
timings by an additional three to four minutes. Based on the
current journey times, these improvements could reduce London
to Sheffield timings to around 116 minutes. These improvements
would generate substantial financial and economic benefits, and
these would exceed the capital costs. Therefore, the package
represents very good value for money.
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Sheffield Station
Engineering and Operational Feasibility There are similar timetabling issues between Derby and Sheffield.
Engineering Issues The relatively high service frequencies, different operating
speeds and stopping patterns affect capacity, particularly on the
A new connection from HS2 onto the Birmingham to Derby
approach to Sheffield station. The fastest current journey time
Line - possibly in the Tamworth area - could deliver additional
between Derby and Sheffield is about 30-34 minutes, and there
journey time benefits for both the Three Cities and Sheffield.
will be a need to ensure these timings can also be achieved
The High Speed Rail development company established by the
for the High Speed services. In particular, the capacity issues
Government (HS2 Ltd) is considering the scope for extending
between Dore and Sheffield will need to be carefully addressed.
High Speed services beyond the West Midlands using other
The delivery of improvements at Dore Junction during Control
High Speed alignments or existing “classic” rail lines. Such a
Period 5 of Network Rail’s Business Plan will help to alleviate
connection would need to be designed to help minimise the
some of these constraints.
overall journey times and address possible capacity constraints
which could affect trains using either route.
Operational Considerations
4
West Yorkshire and the North East An option for linking the Midland
Total Est mated Journey Time
Line speed
Bradway
improvements Tunnel
to cut journey Chesterfield
Estimated Journey Time times by 2
minutes.
Committed
investment Nottingham
delivered by
Clay Cross
2014.
Tunnel
Toadmoor
Tunnel
Milford
Tunnel
Chesterfield
Derby
Freight loops in
Newark
the Peartree area
Long Eaton Beeston Nottingham
Estimated Journey Time
Loughborough
New junction to be constructed
in the Tamworth area
Peterborough & Haven Ports
Leicester
Market Harborough
Corby
Kettering
Bletchley Bedford
Luton
Possible
connection
to Heathrow
Luton Airport Parkway
Airport
London
Not to Scale
h Figure 3.1: Estimated Journey Times Between London and Sheffield via HSR
5
High Speed 1, crossing Medway Bridge
CHAPTER 3.0 There is ongoing work to identify the likely operating speeds
for the new High Speed route. The indicative timings for the
JOURNEY TIME SAVINGS
London to Tamworth section may need to be refined once further
A separate study has examined the potential journey time details of the potential High Speed alignment emerge, whilst
reductions that could be achieved between Sheffield and the remaining timings are based on line speeds on conventional
London as a result of upgrading the MML. Analysis suggested routes of up to 125 mph. The timings between Sheffield and
a package of line speed improvements and electrification could Derby reflect the fastest current journey time, but do not
reduce timings from the current 127 minutes to 116 minutes. include the potential line speed improvements. These timing
The enhanced MML timings provide a useful comparator to assumptions reflect the capacity constraints highlighted earlier,
High Speed rail improvements. The following summarises the particularly between Dore and Sheffield, that could affect timings.
estimated journey times, presented for each of the main route
sections. The results presented in Table 3.1 suggest there is potential
to cut journey times to 102 minutes between Sheffield and
London. This would save about 14 minutes compared with the
Route Section Estimated Journey Time (mins)
MML upgrade option (102 minutes), and by about 25 minutes
London to Tamworth 50 compared with the existing service (127 minutes).
Tamworth to Derby 20 A High Speed route from London to the West Midlands would
release capacity on the existing West Coast Main Line (WCML),
Derby station (dwell time) 2 and this could be utilised for a new Sheffield service. The recent
WCML line speed improvements mean journey times between
Derby to Sheffield 30
London and Tamworth have been reduced to about an hour.
Total 102 Whilst this option would achieve similar journey time savings
compared with the upgraded and electrified MML, it would also
h Table 3.1: Estimated Journey Times Between London and Sheffield via HSR
relieve capacity on the southern part of the route.
Notes: This dwell time exists to enable people to alight from and board the train
Sheffield Station
6
CHAPTER 4.0 CHAPTER 5.0
CAPACITY IMPROVEMENTS ECONOMIC BENEFITS AND COSTS
In addition to the journey time improvements between London
Measuring Costs and Benefits
and Sheffield that would generate new revenue, the new
service via High Speed Rail could also deliver other benefits. The methodology to calculate the wider economic benefits
For example, diverting a Sheffield service via HS2 could enable associated with a High Speed Rail service between Sheffield, the
the total number of trains between the Sheffield City Region, Three Cities and London is highly complex. None of the business
East Midlands and London to be increased, enabling overall cases examining High Speed Rail to date have examined the
capacities to be boosted. The following summarises the likely merits of a Sheffield service via HS2. As a result, many of these
change in hourly line capacities in each direction: impacts have been examined in a qualitative rather than a
quantitative manner.
Existing capacities per hour, per direction:
Wider economic benefits (WEBs) calculations capture the
• 248 seats from Derby;
productivity and labour market benefits from bringing places
• 342 seats from Sheffield; closer together. The rationale underpinning this assumption is
• 457 seats from Nottingham; that firms which cluster together tend to be more productive. The
• 457 seats from Nottingham; and largest two contributors to WEBs are:
• Total 1504 seats. • ‘pureagglomeration’, which captures the benefits of bringing
places and economic activity effectively closer together by
Future capacities per hour per direction:
reducing journey times, supporting business growth and the
• As
above, plus 550-600 seats from Sheffield (estimated); intertwining of markets. Bringing businesses closer together
and in this manner frequently increases their productivity; and
• Total
2,054-2,104 seats, equating to a 32-40% increase • ‘moveto more productive jobs’ that captures the benefits of
in the number of seats from the East Midlands / South enabling more people to commute to more productive, better
Yorkshire to London. paid jobs, either by reducing journey times and thus making
routes more attractive, or by relieving capacity constraints on
The additional capacity would help to support future demand
existing congested commuter lines.
growth on the MML route, and help to generate wider economic
benefits (see section 5 below). Whilst the WEBs methodology captures some of the benefits of
High Speed Rail it is important to note that it has its limitations.
In addition to the extra capacity, there may be scope to modify
The approach evolved to capture the commuter benefits of
the MML timetable, by reducing journey times between the major
Crossrail and thus focuses upon the benefits of relieving capacity
stations.
constraints and the accessibility to a single productive business
The benefits of releasing capacity onto the enhanced MML for area. The potential benefits of transforming the economic
East Midlands cities and towns are likely to be substantial and geography of the country which could be achieved through High
should be included in the wider business case assessment. Speed Rail are therefore not fully captured.
7
St Pancras Station
The savings enabled by linking the MML via the potential HS2 to Nottingham HMA 2.7 (2.4-2.8)
London will significantly reduce journey times, thereby making
the economic centres of Derby, Nottingham, Leicester and London 20.7 (19.1-22.9)
Sheffield closer to the economic hub of London. Total 59.4 (53.3-66.9)
It is generally accepted that journey times of under an hour begin Less Sheffield 40.7 (37.8-48.2)
to appeal as commuter routes and journey times up to 2-3 hours
allow businesses to carry out face to face day meetings on a h Table 5.1: The Distribution of Annual Productivity Gains
semi-regular basis. Journey times of over 3 hours are associated Source: Volterra calculation, range of outputs shown in brackets
with less frequent business travel, for which air travel begins to
compete. The largest productivity benefits accrue to the Sheffield City
Region and Derby Housing Market Area (HMA). This is due
Journeys from Sheffield and the Three Cities to London therefore to the large time and frequency savings created from these
fall into the middle category and reductions in these journey places. Some benefits also accrue to Leicester and Nottingham
times will make it easier for people doing business and attending HMAs, as a result of the greater capacity available on the MML,
meetings in the capital, rather than those commuting on a daily but fewer places in these areas benefit from time savings and
basis. This kind of benefit is valued by the ‘pure agglomeration’ therefore lower productivity gains benefits are estimated.
calculations.
London also benefits from linking the MML to HS2 as bringing
In addition to this, a link onto HS2 would divert trains from the the UK’s main economic hub closer to businesses in Sheffield.
Three Cities and Sheffield onto this route which would free up Hence, London receives around a third of the estimated benefits.
subsequent capacity on the southern part of the route. This
would enable more trains to run on this line, making it a more The annual productivity benefits of £50-70 million equate to a
feasible option for commuters. This kind of benefit is valued by 60 year Net Present Value (NPV) of some £2-2.4 billion. The
the ‘move to more productive jobs’ calculations. distribution of benefits is shown in Table 5.2.
Estimates made in this report of the WEBs for a link from HS2 to 60yr NPV (£m, 2002 prices)
the MML have been based on a series of assumptions. Due to MML & HS2
changes in DfT Guidance and the use of different study areas,
these assumptions are different to those adopted for other Total 2,170 (2,000–2,400)
recent work for emda and the Sheffield and Leeds City Regions
East Midlands 730 (700–900)
on the economic benefits of High Speed Rail. It is therefore not
appropriate to make direct comparisons of the WEBs estimates Sheffield City Region 680 (600–700)
across these different reports.
h Table 5.2: 60 year NPV of linking the MML to HS2
8
Derby Station Sheffield Station
Estimates of ‘move to more productive jobs’ Using the difference in GDP created across sectors in London
The ‘move to more productive jobs’ aspect of WEBs is additional in comparison to the Three Cities and Sheffield City Regions,
to ‘pure agglomeration’ and is intended to capture the benefits we estimate that increased commuting to more productive jobs
of enabling more people to commute to more productive, better in London could result in £13.5-15 million of annual productivity
paid jobs. This would be achieved by either reducing journey gains in 2002 prices, or a 60 year Net Present Value of £0.5
times and thus making routes more attractive, or relieving 0.55 billion. This is a significant productivity benefit and it would
capacity constraints on existing commuter routes affected by accrue partly to businesses in London as a result of having
overcrowding. access to more workers, and partly to the Three Cities and the
Sheffield City Region as these workers take their higher earnings
As Figure 5.1 shows, some commuting to London already home and spend more money locally, thus creating knock-on
occurs from the southern part of the East Midlands Region. A link local benefits. Even these high level illustrative calculations
onto HS2 would divert trains from the Three Cities and Sheffield show that this effect could lead to real and significant productivity
onto this route would help to release capacity to benefit stations benefits.
in the southern part of the region. This would enable more trains
to run on this line making it a more feasible option for commuters
in this area.
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St Pancras Station
10
High Speed 1 © Daniel Clements
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S H E F F I E L D
City Region
December 2009