Energy Policy 72 (2014) 1–13

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Energy Policy
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol

Electricity demand and supply scenarios for Maharashtra (India)

for 2030: An application of long range energy alternatives planning
Rajesh V. Kale a,n, Sanjay D. Pohekar b
a
Rajiv Gandhi Institute of Technology, Andheri (W), Mumbai 400058, India
b
Tolani Maritime Institute, Pune 410507, India

H I G H L I G H T S

Forecasted electricity scenarios by Long Range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP).

Critically analyzed the demand and supply prior to 2012 for a period of six years.

Used Holt’s exponential smoothing method ARIMA (0,1,1) for finding growth rates.

Devised suitable LEAP model for the generated scenarios.

Discussed policy implications for the generated scenarios.

art ic l e i nf o a b s t r a c t

Article history: Forecasting of electricity demand has assumed a lot of importance to provide sustainable solutions to the
Received 2 April 2014 electricity problems. LEAP has been used to forecast electricity demand for the target year 2030, for the
Received in revised form state of Maharashtra (India). Holt’s exponential smoothing method has been used to arrive at suitable
28 April 2014
growth rates. Probable projections have been generated using uniform gross domestic product (GDP)
Accepted 9 May 2014
growth rate and different values of elasticity of demands. Three scenarios have been generated which
Available online 27 May 2014
include Business as Usual (BAU), Energy Conservation (EC) and Renewable Energy (REN). Subsequent
Keywords: analysis on the basis of energy, environmental influence and cost has been done. In the target year 2030,
Energy forecasting the projected electricity demand for BAU and REN has increased by 107.3 per cent over the base year
Electricity generation
2012 and EC electricity demand has grown by 54.3 per cent. The estimated values of green house gas
GHG emissions
(GHG) for BAU and EC, in the year 2030, are 245.2 per cent and 152.4 per cent more than the base year
and for REN it is 46.2 per cent less. Sensitivity analysis has been performed to study the effect on the
total cost of scenarios. Policy implications in view of the results obtained are also discussed.
& 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction
Electricity infrastructure is vital for overall productivity which
results in development of economy for a developing country like
India. Maharashtra is the second largest state in India in terms of
population and geographical area. The state’s population is 115.2
million (ORG and CCI, 2013) and it covers an area of 308,000 km2.
The gross state domestic product (GSDP) for the year 2011–2012
is around Rs. 11,995.4 billion INR (MAHADES ESM, 2011). The
industrial and service sectors are the most vibrant sectors and
contribute to 89 per cent of the state’s income. Electricity con-
sumption for the state is 12 per cent of the country. Since 2005,
the state has recorded economic growth of 8.4 per cent and the
n
Corresponding author. Tel.: þ 91 9224274463; fax: þ 91 2226707025.
E-mail address: rajeshkale_rgit@yahoo.co.in (R.V. Kale).
demand for electricity has gone up. The state has faced scarcity of
electricity since 2005 with a peak power shortage of 5000 MW
(Kale and Pohekar, 2012). Many parts of the state are still facing
power cuts.
From the year 1990 onwards, major shuffle in the policy took
place in the regulatory structure of the state’s electricity sector. As
a result, the state’s major utility, Maharashtra State Electricity
Distribution Company limited (MSEDCL) was unbundled and
separate companies were formed to look after the generation,
transmission and distribution of electricity. Conducive atmosphere
was created for private sector participation in the power sector.
The state government set up Maharashtra Energy Development
Agency (MEDA) to promote development of renewable energy and
energy conservation.
Forecasting of electricity demand and supply is vital for any
state. It can help the state authorities to keep up the pace with
growing demands, reduction of power outages and reduction in

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2014.05.007
0301-4215/& 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
2 R.V. Kale, S.D. Pohekar / Energy Policy 72 (2014) 1–13
GHG emissions. Demand analysis can be done by extrapolation
methods, econometric and bottom up models. Extrapolation and
Linear Regression methods are useful for time series predictions
(Adom and Bekoe, 2012). Traditionally, Mixed Integer Linear
Programming (MILP) is used to arrive at long term electricity
forecast.
LEAP is a widely used software tool to forecast energy demand
and supply. It can generate various scenarios and can be used for
climate change mitigation assessment. It can be used to find
energy utilization, generation and resources in all sectors of an
economy. It accounts for both energy sector and non-energy sector
GHG emission sources (Heaps, 2012). Various authors have carried
out energy demand and supply forecast, generated different
energy scenarios and analyzed and compared on the basis of cost
and GHG emission. Sant and Dixit (2000) analyzed the state’s
electricity sector problems. Hoseok et al. (2009) developed sce-
narios in which different levels of nuclear energy utilization is
made and discussed its effect on electricity demand and supply
situation in Republic of Korea in the year 2030. Argiro et al. (2012)
generated scenarios with an emphasis on electricity generation
system and its impact on energy and environment for Greek
energy system. Implications of changing energy and environmental
policies in China were studied by Wang et al. (2011). Dagher and
Ruble (2011) studied the economical and environmental impact of
different scenarios for Lebanon. Bautista (2012) analyzed the
Venezuelan power sector. Kim et al. (2011) generated scenarios
consisting of utilization of different levels of nuclear power and the
use of renewable energy and compared the effects on GHG emis-
sion. Kalashnikov et al. (2009) generated and analyzed three energy
scenarios of energy future for Russian Far East. Pan et al. (2013)
concluded that demand side management can effectively reduce the
pressure on supply side and reduce GHG emission for Beijing city.
Several alternative energy options for Japan are discussed by Takase
and Suzuki (2011) with an emphasis on possible alternative options
for nuclear power and GHG mitigation. The change in GHG emission
is analyzed by varying the electricity supply mix for China by
various authors (Cai et al., 2007; Shin et al., 2005). Park et al. (2013)
used LEAP model to generate three electricity scenarios for Korea
and analyzed its energy, environmental and economic influence.
The paper highlights the importance of sustainable society scenar-
ios. Yophy et al. (2011) developed LEAP model to check demand and
supply patterns for different scenarios and GHG emissions for
Taiwan. Amirnekooei et al. (2012) used LEAP to generate energy
scenario and carried out demand side and supply side analysis for
Iran. Vashishtha and Ramachandran (2003) developed LEAP model
and analyzed the possibility of applying demand side manage-
ment (DSM) programs in Indian utilities for Rajasthan. However,
successful implementation of DSM requires very high involvement
of customers. Supply side management (SSM) is supposed to be a
more reliable approach to ensure the futuristic demand and
reduced GHG emissions for a leading state like Maharashtra.
The present paper analyses the electricity situation in the state
for various sectors of the economy. The electricity demand and
supply analysis is presented for a period of six years prior to 2012.
Table 1
Sectoral consumption of electricity for Maharashtra (million kW h).
Source: MAHAGENCO (2013), MERC (2012), MERC (2010), MERC (2012).
Year Domestic Commercial Industry
2007 15,381.3 06,004.5 28,084.8
2008 16,583.1 06,375.0 32,640.8
2009 18,177.7 10,410.9 31,379.1
2010 19,484.2 10,706.0 35,028.7
2011 21,123.7 11,735.3 36,915.9
2012 22,305.1 13,180.2 38,932.8
Electricity demand up to the target year 2030 has been forecasted
by using a statistical method and by generating four scenarios. In
the first method, Holt’s exponential smoothing method (i.e. ARIMA
0,1,1) (Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average) has been used
for finding the growth rates for various sectors of economy. Rests
of the scenarios are generated considering GDP and varying values
of elasticity of demand (NEP, 2012). On the supply side, three
electricity scenarios viz. BAU, EC and REN have been formulated.
LEAP framework has been used to forecast the electricity supply
mix for these scenarios. A comparison has been drawn vis a vis
GHG emissions for these three scenarios. A cost analysis has been
done for these scenarios. A sensitivity analysis has been done
to study the effect of varying parameters on total cost of the
scenarios.
2. Methods
The present study uses the base line scenario of the year 2012.
Electricity demand analysis for various sectors of the economy
for six year prior to 2012 has been presented. On the electricity
supply side, the analyses of installed capacity of the state’s electric
utilities, various sources of electricity and load shedding for the
period May 2011 to September 2013 have been presented. LEAP
has been used to forecast three different scenarios for the period
2012 to 2030.
2.1. Electricity demand analysis
The electricity consumers in the state are broadly classified
as domestic, commercial, industry, railway and agriculture. The
number of residential consumers is 14.3 million, agriculture
consumers are 3.17 million, commercial consumers 1.38 million
and industrial consumers are 363 thousand. The domestic sector
consists of Low Tension below poverty line (LT BPL), LT domestic
and group housing. LT commercial, temporary connections, hoard-
ings/advertisements, and crematorium/burial are grouped under
commercial sector. The high Tension (HT) consumers are HT
commercial and HT commercial complex. The industrial sector is
a combination of LT industry, LT power loom, HT industry
(express) HT industry (non-express) HT seasonal, and HT tempor-
ary supply. The agriculture sector comprises of LT and HT agricul-
ture and LT and HT poultry. Pumping of water, purification of
water and sewage treatment plants and allied activities are
grouped under Public Water Works (PWW) sector. Street light
category covers lighting of the streets which are open to general
public, streets under residential area, commercial compound and
industry.
Table 1 shows the sectoral electricity consumption of Mahar-
ashtra. In the year 2012, electricity consumption for domestic
sector was 22,305 million kW h. The consumption of electricity in
industrial sector was 38,932 million kW h. Electricity consumption
for commercial sector was 13,180.2 million kW h, for agriculture it
was 22,931.4 million kW h, for PWW it was 2154 million kW h and
Railway Agriculture PWW Street light Total
2024.1 05,011.1 1550.1 757.1 56,505.8
2090.0 05,752.0 1612.7 778.9 63,440.9
2123.1 06,271.8 1733.7 801.5 68,362.8
2198.9 07,780.8 1863.8 824.6 75,198.6
4394.8 10,662.3 2003.7 848.5 84,832.0
2269.6 22,931.4 2154.0 873.0 102,646.1
 R.V. Kale, S.D. Pohekar / Energy Policy 72 (2014) 1–13 3

for street light sector it was 873 million kW h. The total consump- 16000
tion of electricity grew from 56,505.8 million kW h in the 14147
14000
year 2007 to 102,646.1 million kW h in 2012, a growth of 81.65
per cent. 12000

Capacity in MW
10000
2.2. Electricity supply analysis
8000
Electricity supply for Maharashtra state is divided into two
6000
zones; Mumbai and the rest of Maharashtra. Mumbai’s electricity
supply is provided by Reliance Infrastructure Limited (RIL), Tata 4000 3028 3431
2819
Power Company Limited (TPCL) and Brihanmumbai Electric Supply
2000 1400
and Transport (BEST). MSEDCL, central sector and captive power
plants supply electricity to rest of the state. There is a growing 0
electricity demand in the state. Encouraging state government Gas Coal Hydraulic Nuclear Wind
policies brought private sector investments in the power sector. To
Fig. 2. Source of electricity (MAHAGENCO, 2013; MAHAHYDRO, 2013; MEDA,
reduce load shedding, concerted efforts are made by the state 2013).
utilities to set up new plants and expand their existing power
plants.
12000
Fig. 1 shows the installed capacity of various utilities in the
state. Maharashtra State Power Generation Company limited, 10000
(MAHAGENCO), which is a government owned company, has a
maximum installed capacity (i.e. 11,363 MW) which includes 8000
mainly coal based units, gas based and hydraulic power plants.
TPCL is the oldest privately owned utility having total installed 6000
capacity of 2191 MW of which 1580 MW is coal based power plant
4000
at Trombay, 444 MW is hydraulic power plant and 167 MW is
renewable energy plant. RIL has a 500 MW coal based power plant 2000
at Dahanu which was earlier owned by Bombay Suburban Electric
Supply. RIL holds the license to supply electricity to western 0
suburbs of Mumbai. The independent power producers own an
aggregate capacity of 7316 MW, of which the significant ones are
Adani Power having a capacity of 1980 MW, Jindal South West Demand Million kWh Generation Million kWh
holds a capacity of 1200 MW, Wardha Power Company Limited has
Load Shedding Million kWh
a capacity of 450 MW and other Independent Power Producers
(IPPs) jointly hold a capacity of 300 MW; the balance capacity is Fig. 3. Electricity load shedding (SLDC, 2013).
spread among independent producers from renewable energy.
Central sector share is 3455 MW which consists of Tarapur Atomic
MAHAGENCO and is having 852 MW capacity. The total hydraulic
Power Station having a capacity of 1400 MW and Ratnagiri Gas
power plant capacity in the state is 3028 MW, nuclear energy is
and Power Private Limited (RGPPL) having a capacity of 1967 MW.
having a capacity of 1400 MW and the renewable energy power
Good availability of coal in the state, along with good returns
plant capacity is 3431 MW (Fig. 2).
on the investment has fuelled the establishment of coal based
The shortage of electricity can be quantified by analyzing the
power plants. The present share of coal based plants in the state is
patterns of electricity demand and demand met. Fig. 3 shows the
56.63 per cent. The high presence of coal as fuel in the energy
electricity demand and the generation for the period from May
transformation is causing high level of GHG emissions. Most of the
2011 to September 2013. The load shedding is done by the State
coal based plants in the state work on sub critical technology. The
Load Dispatch Center (SLDC) when the supply does not meet the
gas based power plants have a combined capacity of 2819 MW
electricity demand. The demand peaks in the month of May 2011
which is 11.45 per cent of the total capacity in the state. RGPPL has
(10,908 million kW h), May 2012 (11,410 million kW h) and May
a power plant at Dabhol which runs on gas and has a capacity of
2013 (11,425 million kW h) while the load shedding is 1857
1967 MW, while the second gas based plant is owned by
million kW h, 359.8 million kW h and 226.8 million kW h, respec-
tively. For the period 2011–2012 the total demand is 121,388
million kW h and for 2012–2013 it is 123,983 million kW h and the
load shedding is 21,919 million kW h and 3855.2 million kW h,
CPP/IPP 7316 respectively.

Central sector share 3455 2.3. LEAP model framework

RIL 500
LEAP is an integrated modeling tool which can be used to track
TPCL 2191 energy consumption, production and resource extraction in all
sectors of an economy. It has various modules such as key
MAHAGENCO 11363 assumptions, demand, transformation, resources etc.
In the key assumption module, data such as total population,
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000
urban and rural population, households, GDP and similar data has
Installed capacity in MW been used. Demand analysis is used for modeling the require-
Fig. 1. State installed capacity in MW (MAHAGENCO, 2013; MAHAHYDRO, 2013; ments for final energy consumption. In the demand module, broad
MEDA, 2013). sectors such as domestic sector, industrial sector, commercial
4 R.V. Kale, S.D. Pohekar / Energy Policy 72 (2014) 1–13
Fig. 4. Model used for forecasting and transformation.
sector, agriculture sector and railways are created using the
sectoral electricity consumption as given in Table 1. The electricity
consumption values for the base year 2012 have been used for
forecasting electricity demand and supply, predicting GHG emis-
sions and cost analysis. Fig. 4 explains the model developed for
this study.
Electricity consumption data for different sectors for the last six
years has been collected for the state. The explicit values of
electricity demand for intermediate years up to the year 2030
have been estimated using Holt’s Exponential Smoothing method
and by generating various scenarios based on GDP growth rate and
elasticity of demands.
The Holt’s Exponential Smoothing method has been used after
monitoring the trend, auto correlation function (ACF) and partial
auto correlation function (PACF) plots in SPSS (Statistical Product
and Service Solutions) (IBM SPSS, 2011) and SAS (Statistical
Analysis System) (SAS Institute Inc., 2002). The forecasts were
computed using Holt’s Exponential Smoothing method (i.e. ARIMA
0,1,1) The forecasts were validated as the best fit depending on
Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Schwarz Information Criterion
(SIC) and R-squared values (Montgomery et al., 1994). R2 is the
coefficient of determination and is the measure of proportion of
the variance of the dependent variable about its mean that is
explained by its independent variable. Linearity was checked
through the partial regression plot of residual versus variables.
Normality of the error terms were tested by examining histogram
and normal probability plot. Multi-co linearity test was carried to
examine the existence of any multi-co linearity affecting the
analysis.
Four different assumptions can be made for the state electricity
sector by keeping uniform GDP growth rate and changing the
elasticity of demand as shown in Table 2.
Assumption 1. Actual electricity demand up to 2012 with 8 per
cent GDP growth rate and elasticity of demand value as 0.8.
Assumption 2. Actual electricity demand up to 2012 with 8 per
cent GDP growth rate and elasticity of demand as 0.9 during 12th
five year plan and elasticity of demand as 0.8 during 13th plan and
beyond.
Assumption 3. Actual electricity demand up to 2012 with 8 per
cent GDP growth rate and elasticity of demand as 0.95.
Assumption 4. Actual electricity demand up to 2012 with 8 per
cent GDP growth rate and elasticity of demand as 1.0 during 12th
plan and elasticity of demand as 0.8 during 13th plan.
The electricity demand estimated using Holt’s exponential
smoothing method is comparable with the short term demand
estimated by MSEDCL. Thus Holt’s exponential smoothing method
has been considered as the basis for this analysis.
In a transformation module, simulation of energy conversion
and transportation of energy from the source of primary energy to
the final fuel consumption is done. In the transformation module,
data related to electricity generation power plants such as
installed capacity in MW, historical production in million kW h,
process efficiency, life time of the power plant, maximum avail-
ability, capacity credit, capital cost, fixed operation and mainte-
nance (O&M) cost and fuel cost are substituted. Here, maximum
availability of a process is the ratio of the maximum energy
produced to the energy produced, if the process ran at full capacity
for a given period. Capacity credit is defined as the fraction of rated
capacity which can be considered as certain (McPherson and
Karney, 2014). The assumptions made in the LEAP model are listed
in Table 3. It is assumed that the electricity transmission and
distribution losses are 23.2 per cent, 18.9 per cent, 15.4 per cent in
2012, 2017 and 2030, respectively (NEP, 2012; MAHADISCOM,
2013; MAHATRANSCO, 2013). The first simulation year is set as
2013. The planning reserve margin is assumed as 30 per cent (Park
et al., 2013; Takase and Suzuki, 2011; Dagher and Ruble, 2011).
Reserve margin is the additional generation capacity maintained
by utilities to manage unpredictable surge in load and shutdowns.
The salvage value is assumed to be 10 per cent of the capital cost of
the power plant (CERC, 2009). Various financial institutions
finance the power projects. Lending rates of loan vary based on
whether the energy technology is a conventional one or renewable
and whether the electric utility is a state sector borrower, central
power sector unit or a private sector borrower. The assumed
values of interest rates are shown in Table 3 (PFC India, 2014).
2.4. Scenarios considered for analysis
2.4.1. Business as usual scenario (BAU)
In this scenario it is assumed that the development trends in
the future will follow the trends set up in the past and no changes
in the policies will take place. In a BAU, all variables and
parameters in the electric system follow the past trends. These
include electricity generation technologies, efficiencies, transmis-
sion and distribution losses, the percentage share in the electricity
generation, the fuel used, the installed plant capacity, the elec-
tricity consumption growth rate, the economic growth rate, the
GHG emissions etc. The energy scenario in the state is dominated
by coal based generation technologies. The large hydroelectric
power plants have reached its maximum capacity. Additions of
small hydroelectric plants have a limited scope. Renewable energy
is still in the infant stage in the state. In the BAU the supply mix
and the generation proportion are assumed to be the same. Most
of the power plants are using old technology and the process
efficiency assumed would be of old technology. Fuels used in the
power plants such as coal, oil and gas are partly indigenously
produced while remaining are imported.
2.4.2. Energy conservation scenario (EC)
Maharashtra state government has taken steps towards energy
conservation based on the guide lines set by the Bureau of Energy
Efficiency (BEE). Efficient use of energy and its conservation is very
important in view of the fact that one unit of energy saved at the
user end reduces the need for new capacity addition by 2 to
2.5 times. This efficient use of energy can be achieved at less than
one fifth cost of fresh capacity creation. The biggest consumer of
electricity in the state is industrial sector for the year 2012, which
consumes 39.1 per cent. As per the state government figures
which are corroborated by BEE, the potential of energy conserva-
tion in this sector is 25 per cent (NPC, 2009). The energy intensive
industries in the state have been identified which are aluminum,
fertilizers, iron and steel, cement, pulp and paper, sugar, textile,
 R.V. Kale, S.D. Pohekar / Energy Policy 72 (2014) 1–13 5

Table 2
Projected electricity demand using various methods (million kW h).

Year Holt’s exponential smoothing Assumption 1 Assumption 2 Assumption 3 Assumption 4

2012 102,646.1 102,646.1 102,646.1 102,646.1 102,646.1

2013 108,985.4 109,215.7 110,036.9 110,447.5 110,858.1
2014 115,331.5 116,205.5 117,959.6 118,841.5 119,726.7
2015 121,684.9 123,642.7 126,452.6 127,873.4 129,304.9
2016 127,818.8 131,555.8 135,557.2 137,591.8 139,649.2
2017 133,960.2 139,975.4 145,317.4 148,048.8 150,821.2
2018 140,109.4 148,933.8 155,780.2 159,300.5 162,886.9
2019 146,266.7 158,465.6 166,996.4 171,407.4 175,917.8
2020 152,432.0 168,607.4 179,020.1 184,434.3 189,991.3
2021 158,601.1 179,398.3 191,909.6 198,451.3 205,190.6
2022 164,778.8 190,879.8 204,191.8 213,533.7 219,964.3
2023 170,965.2 203,096.1 217,260.1 229,762.2 235,801.7
2024 177,160.5 216,094.2 231,164.7 247,224.1 252,779.5
2025 183,365.1 229,924.2 245,959.3 266,013.2 270,979.6
2026 189,207.3 244,639.4 261,700.7 286,230.2 290,490.1
2027 195,059.2 260,296.3 278,449.5 307,983.7 311,405.4
2028 200,920.9 276,955.3 296,270.3 331,390.5 333,826.6
2029 206,792.7 294,680.4 315,231.6 356,576.1 357,862.1
2030 212,674.8 313,540.0 335,406.4 383,675.9 383,628.2

Table 3
Assumptions used in LEAP.
Source: Park et al. (2013), Takase and Suzuki (2011), Dagher and Ruble (2011), Yophy et al. (2011), Ramana and Kumar (2009), IEA (2010), IEA (2010a), PFC India (2014).

Coal Large hydro Natural gas Wind power Small hydro Bagasse generation Biomass gasifier

Process efficiency per cent 30.0 100.0 35.0 100.0 100.0 25.0 40.0
Capacity credit per cent 100.0 100.0 100.0 36.0 100.0 80.0 100.0
Maximum availability per cent 47.0 32.5 64.9 15.9 33.0 20.0 22.0
Life time in years 40.0 40.0 40.0 20.0 40.0 25.0 25.0
Capital cost in million Rs/MW
2012 40.0 45.0 30.0 42.5 39.0 30.0 40.0
2030 31.6a 45.0 24.9b 32.7c 39.0 23.7a 31.2d
Fixed O&M cost million Rs/MW-year
2012 1.0 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.6
2030 0.8e 0.5 0.51f 0.4e 0.59 0.7e 1.2e
Fuel cost Rs/MW-h
2012 1250.0 – 1923.0 – – 1280.0 1160.0
2030 1562.5g – 2788.4h – – 1600.0 1334.0i
Auxiliary consumption per cent 8.0 0.5 3.0 0.5 0.5 8.0 9.0
Salvage value million Rs/MW 4.0 4.5 3.5 4.3 3.9 3.0 4.0
Interest rate in per cent 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.0 12.5 12.0 12.0

a
79 Per cent of the cost in 2012.
b
83 Per cent of the cost in 2012.
c
77 Per cent of the cost in 2013.
d
78 Per cent of the cost in 2012.
e
76 Per cent of the cost in 2012.
f
85 Per cent of the cost in 2012.
g
1.25 Times the cost in 2012.
h
1.45 Times the cost in 2012.
i
1.15 Times the cost in 2012.

chemicals, railways, port trust, transport sector, petrochemicals,
thermal power stations, hydel power station, electricity transmis-
sion and distribution companies, commercial buildings and estab-
lishments etc. The state has 22.61 million hectares of land
(MAHADES ESM, 2011) under cultivation and energized about
3.2 million agricultural pump (MAHAGENCO, 2013) sets which is
the highest number by any state. Electricity consumption in
agriculture sector is 18.82 per cent and has a potential of energy
conservation of 30 per cent, while electricity consumption in the
commercial sector is 9.5 per cent. The electricity conservation
possible in this sector is 30 per cent. Energy consumption in
domestic sector is 24 per cent and energy conservation of 20 per
cent is possible. By conservative estimate it is assumed that 50 per
cent of this possible energy conservation will be achieved by the
year 2022 and the complete estimated energy saving by the
year 2030.
2.4.3. Renewable energy scenario (REN)
In the base year 2012, coal based power plants form 58.32 per cent
of the total power generation which is a major source of GHG
emissions. Consideration to safeguarding environment has been given
priority in renewable energy scenario. Thus as coal based plants and
natural gas plants near their life span and are phased out, addition of
renewable energy plants is proposed. The target is to maintain the
2012 GHG emission level and thus REN scenario works on back casting
approach. The provision of electricity by renewable energy option has
many advantages. It is free of GHG emissions; the cost of importing
fuels is reduced and increases the power security as it provides one
additional power generation option. Maharashtra state has a large
potential of renewable energy which is untapped to a large extent. The
state is ranked second in the country in the generation of power from
renewable resources and has an installed capacity of 4495 MW as on
28 February 2013 (MEDA, 2013). The financial side of renewable
6 R.V. Kale, S.D. Pohekar / Energy Policy 72 (2014) 1–13

energy should be looked into to understand the renewable energy
scenario in India. The loans available for renewable energy sector are
limited. The reasons cited by financial institutions are that the
renewable energy is not reliable, changes in policy makes the
investment unsafe, and the poor financial condition of the State
Electricity Regulatory Commission (SERC). In India, financing of renew-
able energy projects are at a higher interest rates and for a short
tenure. Shrimali et al. (2013) have shown that the financing cost add
24–32 per cent more to the renewable project cost as compared to
western countries.
3. Results
3.1. Demand projections
The projection of electricity demand for the three scenarios
generated viz. BAU, EC, and REN is shown in Fig. 5. The forecasting
is done up to the year 2030. The projected demand for BAU and REN
scenario is equal and is 212.7 billion kW h, a growth of 107.3 per cent
over the demand in the year 2012. Electricity demand in case of EC
scenario is found to be 158.3 billion kW h, which is 54.3 per cent rise
over the base year value.
The sector wise electricity demand for BAU and REN is equal as
is shown in Fig. 6. The percentage growth of electricity consump-
tion for the year 2030 as compared to 2012 for domestic sector
would be 115.2 per cent, for commercial sector 181.8 per cent,
industrial sector growth would be 88.4 per cent, agriculture HT
and LT (metered) sector growth would be 156.4 per cent, LT
agriculture (unmetered) sector growth 42.4 per cent, PWW 68.1
per cent, street light 55.5 per cent and railways 34.8 per cent.
Fig. 7 shows prospective sector wise electricity consumption for
EC with reference to BAU. The percentage reduction in electricity
demand for various sectors for EC with reference to BAU would be
25.3 per cent for Domestic sector, 29 per cent for commercial sector,
24.9 per cent for Industrial sector, 0.3 per cent for Agriculture HT
and LT (metered), 29.8 per cent for LT Agriculture (unmetered), 29.7
per cent for PWW and 28.5 per cent for street light.
3.2. Comparison of electricity generation by various scenarios
Fig. 8a–c shows the comparison of electricity generation for the
three scenarios viz. BAU, EC and REN. The electricity generation in
the base year 2012 is 78.4 billion kW h. The predicted growth in

Fig. 5. Electricity demand for various scenarios.

Fig. 6. Sector wise electricity consumption for BAU and REN.

 R.V. Kale, S.D. Pohekar / Energy Policy 72 (2014) 1–13
Fig. 7. Comparison of sector wise electricity consumption of EC with reference to BAU.
electricity generation for the year 2030 for BAU and REN is same
and is 222.9 per cent and for EC it is 140.3 per cent. Comparison of
REN with BAU shows that the amount of electricity generated by
coal for REN has reduced considerably by 169.7 billion kW h and
has increased significantly by an amount of 165.9 billion kW h by
renewable energy source. Similar comparison between EC and
BAU shows significant change in electricity generation by coal
which has reduced by 54.4 billion kW h, by renewable source
electricity generation has reduced by 4.7 billion kW h and by
hydro electric plant it has reduced by 5.1 billion kW h.
The upcoming electricity projects in the state are predomi-
nantly using coal based power plants and as such the BAU and EC
are having major electricity supply by coal technology. The
projected installed capacity has been found to be 52,449 MW,
39,680 MW and 93,455 MW for BAU, EC and REN, respectively.
Saving in capacity has been 12,769 MW in EC with respect to BAU
due to demand side management. The results are summarized
in Table 4.
The aggregate primary resource requirement has been found to be
226.1 billion kW h in base year which increases to 736.8 billion kW h
in BAU, 544.7 billion kW h in EC, and 332.8 billion kW h in REN in the
target year 2030 (Table 4). Renewable based technology forms a major
share in REN amounting to 77.4 per cent, the process efficiency for
renewable process has been assumed as 100 per cent as a result the
primary resource requirement is the lowest for REN scenario.
3.3. Green house gas emissions
Fig. 9 shows carbon dioxide emission from power plants in the
state for the period from 2012 to 2030. It has been estimated that
the carbon dioxide emission in the year 2012 is 65.7 million metric
tonnes, while for the year 2030 it would be 226.4 million metric
tonnes for BAU, 165.8 million metric tonnes for EC and 35.3 million
metric tonnes for REN scenario.
Table 5 gives comparison of the environmental impact other
than CO2 due to electricity generation in the state for various
scenarios for the year 2012 and 2030. The significant constituents
of GHG emissions are Carbon monoxide, Methane, Nitrogen oxide,
Nitrous oxide and Sulfur dioxide. In general, it has been projected
that there is an increase in percentage content of these various
components of GHG for BAU and EC while it decreases or remains
constant for REN.
7
3.4. Cost analysis
Analysis of social costs such as annualized capital cost and
annualized O&M cost have been presented for BAU, EC and REN for
the period from 2012 up to 2030 in Fig. 10. The costs have been
discounted to the value of the year 2012 using an assumed
discount rate of 5 per cent.
Fig. 11 shows cumulative net present capital value (NPV) of EC
and REN with reference to BAU for the year 2012 up to 2030. The
net cumulative present capital value for EC is negative and has a
negative NPV of 319.8 billion INR in the year 2030. The cumulative
NPV of capital cost is positive for REN and is positive 1137.7 billion
INR in the year 2030. Fig. 12 shows that the cumulative NPV of
fixed O&M for EC is negative and is projected to have negative NPV
of 57.5 billion INR while REN has positive NPV and is 16.8 billion
INR for the year 2030. Fig. 13 projects negative cumulative NPV of
fuel cost for REN and EC and is negative 1371.6 billion INR for EC
and negative NPV of 5709.1 billion INR for REN in the year 2030.
The lower fuel cost of REN has offset the higher capital and fixed
O&M cost and made it attractive in terms of minimum total cost.
3.5. Sensitivity analysis
The changes in the cost of different scenarios due to different
socio economic assumptions are studied in sensitivity analysis. The
total costs of scenarios obtained by changing different variables
are tabulated in Table 6. As fuel and technology cost have
increased, the increase in REN cost is less vis a vis BAU and EC
which makes it more attractive. The drop in total cost for REN is
more as compared to BAU and EC as discount rate and salvage cost
increase and hence REN is desired.
4. Discussion
The study of present electricity scenario for the state has been
done. Electricity demand and supply data for last six years has
been collected and analyzed. Forecasting of electricity demand
for the period from 2012 to 2030 has been done using Holt’s
exponential method and four other scenarios on the basis of
GDP growth rate and different values of elasticity of demand.
The electricity demand forecasted by Holt’s exponential method is
found close to that predicted by state electric utility. The projected
8 R.V. Kale, S.D. Pohekar / Energy Policy 72 (2014) 1–13

Fig. 8. (a) Electricity generation in BAU, (b) Electricity generation in EC, and (c) Electricity generation in REN.
 R.V. Kale, S.D. Pohekar / Energy Policy 72 (2014) 1–13 9

Table 4
Summary of results.

Base year 2012 Reference scenario 2030

BAU EC REN

Electricity demand in billion kW h 102.6 212.7 158.3 212.7

Domestic 22.3 48.0 38.4 48.0
Commercial 13.2 37.2 26.0 37.2
Industrial 38.9 73.3 54.9 73.3
Agriculture LT & HT metered 11.7 30.0 21.0 30.0
LT Agriculture unmetered 11.3 16.1 11.2 16.1
Public water works 2.2 3.7 2.6 3.7
Street light 0.9 1.4 1.0 1.4
Railways 2.3 3.1 3.1 3.1
Capacity of power plant in MW 19,307 52,449 39,688 93,455
Coal 11,260 39,980 29,430 8,330
Hydro electric 3,098 5,120 4,109 10,175
Natural gas 2,639 2,639 2,639 2,639
Renewable 2,310 4,710 3,510 72,310
Electricity generation in per cent 100 100 100 100
Coal 65.6 77.8 75.6 10.8
Hydro electric 11.2 9.9 10.6 13.1
Natural gas 19.1 5.1 6.8 3.4
Renewable 4.1 7.1 7.0 72.7
Primary resources billion kW h 226.1 736.8 544.7 332.8
Coal 171.3 656.4 475.0 90.8
Hydro electric 8.8 25.2 19.9 33.3
Natural gas 42.7 37.1 36.5 24.7
Renewable 3.2 18.0 13.2 184
Carbon dioxide emission million metric tonnes 65.7 226.4 165.8 35.3
Total cumulative cost in billion INR 340.0 10,247.2 8,498.3 5,692.7
Capital cost 42.9 1,118.3 798.4 2,256.0
Fixed O and M cost 14.9 375.0 317.6 391.9
Fuel cost 282.2 8,753.9 7,382.3 3,044.8

Fig. 9. Carbon dioxide gas emissions.

values of electricity demand for the generated scenarios show that
the saving of electricity is 54.4 billion kW h in case of EC as
compared to BAU or REN, which results in saving of installed
capacity of 12,761 MW. The electricity consumption in EC with
respect to BAU is negative throughout the period from 2012 to
2030 (Fig. 7). The reduction in consumption in case of EC is due to
proposed energy conservation measures.
Time of day (TOD) tariff is the need today for all types of
electricity consumer segment to decrease the electricity demand
during peak hours and encourage consumption during off peak
hours. The TOD tariff could be implemented by giving incentives to
consumers for shifting their loads to off peak hours. Another
method could be using punitive tariff for consumers for increasing
consumption during peak hours. The TOD tariff policy would help
MSEDCL to reduce generation or power purchase which will
reduce the cost of supply.
The total installed capacity for the state during the baseline
year 2012 is 19,307 MW which is forecasted as 52,449 MW in BAU,
39,688 MW in EC and 93,455 MW in REN for the year 2030. The
total installed capacity in EC reduced drastically by 24.3 per cent
in comparison to the BAU due to the reduction in electricity
consumption. Coal based plants have an installed capacity amounting
10 R.V. Kale, S.D. Pohekar / Energy Policy 72 (2014) 1–13

to 58.3 per cent in the base year 2012, projected value for BAU for the the year 2030 for various scenarios are: BAU 253.2 billion kW h, EC
target year 2030 is 76.0 per cent, for EC is 74.2 per cent and for REN it 188.4 billion kW h and REN 253.2 billion kW h. For base year
is 8.9 per cent. Hydro electric power plants total capacity increased scenario the electricity generation share by coal was 65.6 per cent,
from 3098 MW capacity in 2012 to 5120 MW for BAU, 4109 MW for hydro electric 11.2 per cent, natural gas 19.1 per cent and renew-
EC and 10,175 MW for REN in the year 2030. There is no addition to able 4.1 per cent. In the year 2030, electricity generation by coal
natural gas plant capacity which remains constant at 2639 MW. increased to 77.8 per cent in BAU and 75.6 per cent in EC while it
Renewable plant capacity was 2310 MW in the base year 2012 which reduced to 10.8 per cent in REN scenario. Electricity generation by
increased to 4710 MW in BAU, 3510 MW in EC and 72,310 MW in REN hydro electric would remain almost unchanged at 9.9 per cent and
in the year 2030. 10.6 per cent in BAU and EC respectively, while it would increase
Thus substantial amount of capacity addition is needed in the to 13.1 per cent in REN. There is no addition to the base year
year 2030 for all three scenarios to meet the electricity demand. In capacity of natural gas plant which is 2819 MW. As a result the
the face of economic slowdown and shortage of funds with the percentage share of electricity generation by natural gas plant is
SERC, it is important that efficiency oriented renovation and found to be reducing and is projected as 5.1 per cent for BAU,
modernization (R&M) of bigger units such as 200/210/250/ 6.8 per cent for EC and 3.4 per cent for REN. Renewable energy
500 MW is done. While identifying the power plants for R&M, share is 4.1 per cent in the base year which increases to 7.1 per
technical and economic analysis needs to be done and also energy cent for BAU, 7.0 per cent for EC and 72.7 per cent for REN.
audit of the plants should be carried out. Arranging finance and Carbon dioxide is the major component in GHG from electric
technical assistance are generally the constraints that the utilities utilities in the state amounting to 65.7 million metric tonnes in the
have to face to carry out this kind of work. The advantages are base year 2012. This estimation is based on the GHG emission level
addition of capacity at lower cost, improvement in efficiency and of individual plants during the baseline year 2012. It has been
hence saving of fossil fuel. The time period to acquire the found that the percentage increase of projected value of CO2
additional capacity is reduced. emissions for BAU in the year 2030 is 244.6 per cent. The steep
It would be prudent to encourage distributed generation and is rise in CO2 emissions is due to the fact that the upcoming power
generally from wind, biogas, solar, diesel engines etc. by providing plants are mainly based on coal. The percentage increase of CO2
funds and incentives. These are near the load centre, where the emissions for EC is 152.4 per cent over its base year value. The
grid extension may be difficult and costly, and result in reduced proposed energy conservation measures would save a large
transmission losses. amount of capacity addition, resulting in the reduction of CO2
During the base year 2012 the total electricity generation was emissions. Estimated CO2 emissions for REN for the year 2030
78.4 billion kW h. The projected values of electricity generation for would be 46.3 per cent less than the base year value. The
assumption in REN is that all the new capacity additions as well
as replacements of the retired plants are with renewable based
Table 5
power plants.
Other green house gas emissions.
Reduction of air pollution levels can be achieved if renewable
2012 2030 energy is given an important place in the energy plan of the state.
The SERC in its policy framework to propagate renewable energy
BAU EC REN has made it mandatory for distribution licensee to purchase
Carbon monoxide 15.4 49.9 36.8 8.3
minimum level of renewable energy from the total consumption
Methane 0.8 2.5 1.8 0.4 of energy in the area. There should be policy support which would
Nitrogen oxide 208.1 729 532.8 111.4 make the delivered cost of renewable energy comparable with the
Nitrous oxide 0.9 3.3 2.4 0.5 conventional source. The success of renewable energy in other
Sulfur dioxide 8.4 32.1 23.2 4.4
countries needs to be studied to develop a system which provides
233.6 1116.8 597.0 125.0
(In thousand metric tonnes) long term finance at lower interest rate. Shrimali et al. (2013) have
shown that a reduction of interest rate by 5 per cent on the finance

Fig. 10. Capital cost and fixed O&M cost for different scenarios.
 R.V. Kale, S.D. Pohekar / Energy Policy 72 (2014) 1–13 11

Fig. 11. Comparison of capital cost for EC and REN with reference to BAU.

Fig. 12. Comparison of fixed O and M cost for EC and REN with reference to BAU.

Fig. 13. Comparison of fuel cost for EC and REN with reference to BAU.
12 R.V. Kale, S.D. Pohekar / Energy Policy 72 (2014) 1–13

Table 6
Sensitivity analysis.

Total cost in billion INR

Base year 2012 BAU EC REN

Primary cost analysis results (discount rate 5 per cent) 340.0 10,247.2 8,498.3 5692.7
Analysis assuming discount rate 3 per cent 347.5 12,538.2 10,315.0 6870.0
Analysis assuming discount rate 7 per cent 332.9 8,491.5 7,198.8 4782.9
Analysis assuming discount rate 8 per cent 329.4 7,778.4 6,520.2 4405.7
Analysis assuming discount rate 10 per cent 322.7 6,563.2 5,552.2 3773.1
Fuel cost is50 per cent of the fuel cost assumed in primary analysis 340.0.0 7,049.3 5,858.6 4560.9
Fuel cost is 1.5 times the fuel cost assumed in primary analysis 441.3 10825 8891.8 5605.2
Fuel cost is 2 times the fuel cost assumed in primary analysis 452.1 12712.8 10408.4 6127.4
Technology cost is 5 per cent lower in 2030 than the value in primary analysis in 2030 437.5 9,930.6 8,196.6 5386.3
Technology cost is 5 per cent more than the 2030 value in primary analysis in 2030 437.8 9,969.0 8,215.3 5402.6
Technology cost is same as 2012 cost in primary analysis in 2030 438.46 10,057.6 8,281.5 5450.5
Salvage value 0.5 times of the assumed value in primary analysis 361.3 10,312.7 8,545.1 5825.3
Salvage value 1.5 times the assumed value in primary analysis 354.5 10,181.6 8,451.6 5559.6
Salvage value twice the assumed value in primary analysis 351.4 10,176.9 8,447.9 5427.0

provided to renewable energy projects reduces the subsidy by
13–16 per cent.
The cumulative total cost of electricity generation in the year
2030 for BAU, EC and REN is projected to be 10,247.2 billion INR,
8498.3 billion INR and 5692.7 billion INR respectively, discounted
to the year 2012 value. Total cost comprises of capital cost, fixed
O&M cost and fuel cost. Fuel cost accounted for most of the total
cost which is 85.4 per cent, 86.9 per cent and 53.5 per cent for
BAU, EC and REN, respectively.
Use of modern and energy efficient technology would be able
to control the very high costs of the scenarios. The inefficient old
thermal power plants need to be replaced by plants using modern
supercritical technology. Government should stop issuing clear-
ance to the coal based projects which are based on sub critical
technology. No custom duty and excise duty may be imposed on
supercritical plants. Many supercritical units having 660 MW and
800 MW coal based projects which are under construction would
be adopting temperatures of 565/593 1C. The supercritical power
plants should be built indigenously and the order should be placed
on the joint venture companies with a condition to set up the
manufacturing units in the country. The policy would help gradual
transfer of technology which would save the cost of supercritical
power plant in the state. Ultra supercritical technology with
temperatures of 600/620 1C could be considered at selective sites
in the 13th five year plan, which would reduce the cost of
electricity generation and increase the energy efficiency (NEP
2012).
5. Conclusion and policy implications
In this study, the present electricity scenario in Maharashtra
state has been studied and analyzed. Three electricity scenarios
have been generated viz. BAU, EC and REN. Various methods have
been used to forecast the electricity demand. The electricity
demand forecasted by Holt’s exponential smoothing method (i.e.
ARIMA 0,1,1) method has been found close to that forecasted by
the state electric utility. The growth in electricity demand pro-
jected in BAU and REN is owing to fast development in industry,
increase in the number of agricultural pumps and the anticipated
growth in the domestic sector. The energy conservation measures
suggested in EC has brought down this demand by 25.6 per cent
and can be used to reduce the need for expansion of the installed
capacity. GHG emissions are an important criterion on the basis
of which the superiority of the scenarios can be considered.
The results and discussion thereafter, show that REN has an edge
over BAU and EC as far as GHG emissions is considered, the next
scenario which can be considered is EC which has lower GHG
emissions than BAU due to less power plant capacity. The cost
benefit analysis has drawn comparisons between the scenarios on
the basis of cumulative total cost discounted to year 2012.
The REN is expensive as far as capital cost and fixed O&M cost
are concerned while the EC is economical. Since the fuel cost
forms major chunk of the total cost, the total cost of BAU is more
than EC which is bigger than REN. Cost wise REN is most preferred
to EC which in turn is more economical than BAU. The sensitivity
analysis shows that with increase in fuel and technology costs,
there is an increase in BAU, EC and REN costs. The increase in REN
cost is comparatively less than BAU and EC, which makes it
attractive. The decrease in total cost for REN is sharp in compar-
ison to BAU and EC as discount rate and salvage cost are
incremented, hence REN is desired.
The state is thus left with no other option than to add new
generation capacity in the near future. Maharashtra has a golden
opportunity to expand electricity generation using socially desir-
able, environment friendly and economically viable electricity
infrastructure. Suitable supply side mix has been proposed to
meet the demand, based on data input from various sources. In
order to develop a sustainable power generation system, it is
suggested that the state authorities should give a long term back
casting scenario for electricity demand and supply. The state
authorities should aim at reducing GHG emissions by considerable
amount in the target year. This can be achieved by promoting IPPs
employing renewable energy based electricity.
The specific policy implications in view of the results obtained
for the generated scenarios would be as discussed below.
Projected electricity demand for the target year 2030 for BAU
and REN is 212.7 billion kW h while for EC it is 158.3 billion kW h.
The reduction in electricity consumption in case of EC is 54.4
billion kW h which results in saving of 12,761 MW installed
capacity. The total cumulative cost saved for EC compared to
BAU is 1748.9 billion INR. The impact on environment has reduced
due to decreased GHG emissions which amount to 60.6 million
metric tonnes with respect to BAU. Though population is growing,
which has increased the electricity consumption, and in the
present day economic condition where state utilities are having
scarcity of funds for addition of capacity, EC would be the best
strategy.
REN has many advantages compared to BAU and EC. The
electricity generation is economical in case of REN due to the
reason that major power generation is by renewable energy.
The primary resources saved amounts to 404 billion kW h compared
 R.V. Kale, S.D. Pohekar / Energy Policy 72 (2014) 1–13
to BAU and 212.9 billion kW h as compared to EC as 77.4 per cent of
power plants are based on renewable energy. The projected GHG
emissions for the year 2030 are 46.3 per cent lower than the base
year 2012. GHG emissions for REN are 191.1 million metric tonnes
less than BAU and 130.5 million metric tonnes less than EC. Thus it is
observed that REN is superior to BAU and EC in many aspects, the
prominent being reduced environmental impact, and hence imple-
mentation of REN is desired.
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