tahun jumlah penduduk pertumbuhan penduduk y^2 x^2

jumlah data
jiwa persen
1987 66789 - - 1 4460770521 1
1988 67340 551 0.82% 1 4534675600 1
1989 68528 1188 1.76% 2 4696086784 4
1990 69450 922 1.35% 3 4823302500 9
1991 70128 678 0.98% 4 4917936384 16
1992 70274 146 0.21% 5 4938435076 25
1993 70696 422 0.60% 6 4997924416 36
1994 71309 394 0.98% 7 5084973481 49
1995 72146 756 1.06% 8 5205045316 64
1996 75089 2943 4.08% 9 5638357921 81
∑ 701749 8000 0.1184 46 49297507999 286

a= 66485.0322580645 b= 802.1451613

y= a+b.X
y= 82527.935483871

tahun ke tahun proyeksi metode proyeksi

aritmatik geometrik least square
1 1997 76011.2 76065.157 67287.17742
2 1998 76933.4 77054.004041 68089.32258
3 1999 77855.6 78055.706094 68891.46774
4 2000 78777.8 79070.430273 69693.6129
5 2001 79700 80098.345866 70495.75806
6 2002 80622.2 81139.624363 71297.90323
7 2003 81544.4 82194.439479 72100.04839
8 2004 82466.6 83262.967193 72902.19355
9 2005 83388.8 84345.385766 73704.33871
10 2006 84311 85441.875781 74506.48387
11 2007 85233.2 86552.620166 75308.62903
12 2008 86155.4 87677.804228 76110.77419
13 2009 87077.6 88817.615683 76912.91935
14 2010 87999.8 89972.244687 77715.06452
15 2011 88922 91141.883868 78517.20968
16 2012 89844.2 92326.728358 79319.35484
17 2013 90766.4 93526.975827 80121.5
18 2014 91688.6 94742.826513 80923.64516
19 2015 92610.8 95974.483257 81725.79032
20 2016 93533 97222.15154 82527.93548

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
55
X.Y

66789
67340
137056
208350
280512
351370
424176
499163
577168
675801
3287725

koefisien korelasi ® metode geometrik

tahun jumlah jumlah

penduduk penduduk X^2 Y^2 X.Y
menurut statistik metode aritmatik
Xi Yi X Y
1987 66789 66789 -3385.9 -4149.99 11464319 17222417 14051451
1988 67340 67711.22 -2834.9 -3227.77 8036658 10418499 9150405
1989 68528 68633.44 -1646.9 -2305.55 2712280 5315561 3797010
1990 69450 69555.66 -724.9 -1383.33 525480 1913602 1002776
1991 70128 70477.88 -46.9 -461.11 2199.61 212622.4 21626.06
1992 70274 71400.1 99.1 461.11 9820.81 212622.4 45696
1993 70696 72322.32 521.1 1383.33 271545.2 1913602 720853.3
1994 71309 73244.54 1134.1 2305.55 1286183 5315561 2614724
1995 72146 74166.76 1971.1 3227.77 3885235 10418499 6362257
1996 75089 75088.98 4914.1 4149.99 24148379 17222417 20393466
jumlah 701749 709389.9 52342099 70165403 58160265
rata-rata 70174.9 70938.99 0.959708

koefisien korelasi metode geometrik

tahun jumlah jumlah
 penduduk penduduk X^2 Y^2 X.Y
menurut statistik metode geometri
Xi Yi X Y
1987 66789 66789 -3385.9 -4575.01 11464319 20930729 15490531
1988 67340 68215.42 -2834.9 -2723.57 8036658 7417834 7721049
1989 68528 69102.22046 -1646.9 -1836.77 2712280 3373722 3024976
1990 69450 70000.54932598 -724.9 -938.441 525480 880670.9 680275.6
1991 70128 70910.5564672177 -46.9 -28.4335 2199.61 808.4658 1333.533
1992 70274 71832.3937012915 99.1 893.4037 9820.81 798170.2 88536.31
1993 70696 72766.2148194083 521.1 1827.225 271545.2 3338751 952166.9
1994 71309 73712.1756120606 1134.1 2773.186 1286183 7690558 3145070
1995 72146 74670.4338950174 1971.1 3731.444 3885235 13923674 7355049
1996 75089 75641.1495356527 4914.1 4702.16 24148379 22110304 23106882
jumlah 701749 713640.113816629 52342099 80465221 61565869
rata-rata 70174.9 71364.0113816628 0.948659

tahun jumlah jumlah

penduduk penduduk X^2 Y^2 X.Y
menurut statistik metode least square
Xi Yi X Y
1987 66789 66789 -3385.9 -4149.99 11464319 17222417 14051451
1988 67340 67287.1774193548 -2834.9 -3651.81 8036658 13335735 10352523
1989 68528 68089.3225806452 -1646.9 -2849.67 2712280 8120604 4693117
1990 69450 68891.4677419355 -724.9 -2047.52 525480 4192347 1484249
1991 70128 69693.6129032258 -46.9 -1245.38 2199.61 1550964 58408.19
1992 70274 70495.7580645161 99.1 -443.232 9820.81 196454.5 -43924.3
1993 70696 71297.9032258065 521.1 358.9132 271545.2 128818.7 187029.7
1994 71309 72100.0483870968 1134.1 1161.058 1286183 1348057 1316756
1995 72146 72902.1935483871 1971.1 1963.204 3885235 3854168 3869671
1996 75089 73704.3387096774 4914.1 2765.349 24148379 7647153 13589200
jumlah 701749 701250.822580645 52342099 57596720 49558481
rata-rata 70174.9 70125.0822580645 0.902596

nilai koefisien korelasi ® ketiga metode

no metode nilai korelasi
1 metode aritmatika 0.9597084135 → dipilih karena mendekati 1
2 metode geometrik 0.9486594562
3 metode least square 0.9025962981