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Decision Making and Negotiation

Jan 15th 2019

Competitive signaling: its the way how to communicate indirectly. Kind of business
interaction. PR. If the party didn’t understand what the truth signal, we need to translate it. There
will be always noise. In game theory. Hyper game. Chess.
Management is concerned with deciding to do or not to do something, with planning,
considering alternatives. Negotiation is how we achieve our goals through others.
Why decision making? Dec making is what the leaders and managers do every time.
According to Peter D, leaders do the right thing, and managers do the thing right.
System 1 and 2. Decision Approaches
- Normative/rational/Ideal.
The assumptions: (1) perfectly define the problem, (2) Identify all criteria (3) Accurately weigh
all criteria according to their preference.. >> optimal solution.
- descriptive: actual process affected bounded rationality, Intuition. Biases.

Heuristics and Biases.


- Heuristic: system 1. Its is what we develop to us to make decision. Is method to help solve a
problem, commonly informal. Itss particulary used for a method that often rapidly leads to a
solution that is usually reasonably close to the best possible answer. Heuristics are “rules of
thumbs”, educated guesses, common sense.

- Three main heuristics:


1. Availability Heuristics (top of mind, when u think something you don’t have to much time”
easily try to find or get. “available in your memory”)
2. Representativeness Heuristics (stereotype. Representing ‘the whole’. Their stereotypes of
similar occurrences. )
3. Anchoring and Adjustment Heuristics (baju merah. Jd gampang.. its easy.. whatever the
reason. The initial value or starting point, from the way in which a problem is presented, or from
random information. Unfortunately, the adjustment from these initial values is often insufficient.)
Write in the paper, give two example of whatever .. based on individual experience. Submit.
Decision Making and Negotiation
Dr. Eng. Pri Hermawan, ST., MT.
Wed, Jan 16th 2019

 4 Basic Pattern of Thinking (Kepner- Tehroe Approach) -


(1) What is going on? – clarification
(situation analysis)
(2) Why did this happen? – cause and effect (problem analysis)
(ex: reading mstery book)
(3) Which course of action should we take? – choice (decision analysis)
(alternatives. Option. Creativity you have limited option.)
(4) What lies ahead? – looks into future (potensial problem alternative)
(imagination.)

 Situation Appraisal
- What is going on?
- Breaks down complex into components
- Separate relevant from irrelevant
- sets priorites and delegates…
22 Januari 2019

 The Paradox
- We need this diversity on a management team to provide the necessary expertise

 4 Basic Pattern of Thinking (Kepner- Tehroe Approach) – [EVERY productive activity is


related to one of four basic patterns of thinking]
(1) What is going on? – clarification
(situation analysis. Make it clear. How many concern. )
(2) Why did this happen? – cause and effect (problem analysis)
(ex: reading mstery book. )
(3) Which course of action should we take? – choice (decision analysis)
(alternatives. Option. Creativity you have limited option.)
(4) What lies ahead? – looks into future (potensial problem alternative)
(imagination.)

 The four basic rational processes.


- Applying the four basic thinking patterns in an organizational setting leads to systematic
procedures for using and sharing information about organization.

KTT Problem Analysis


 This analysis is useful in troubleshooting operations
 A good problem statement includes:
- what is known
- what is unknown
- what is sought
 What is the problem and what is not
 Think in terms of dissimilarities
 Ask who, why, and how
 Reexamine assumptions