Juan Felipe Duran

260764333
MATH 323
Assignment 3

3.8

P(cell dies) = 0.1

P(cell multiplies) = 0.9

P(no more cells) = p(first cell dies) + p(first cell lives but offsprings die)
= 0.1 + (0.9)(0.1)(0.1) =0.109

P(four cells in 3rd generation) =(0.9)(0.9)(0.9) = 0.729

P(two cells in 3rd generation) = 1 – 0.729 – 0.109 =0.162

3.14
a) mean = E(Y) = 3(.03) + 4(.05) +
5(.07)+6(.10)+7(.14)+8(.20)+9(.18)+10(.12)+11(.07)+12(.03)+13(.01) = 7.9

b)Variance =E(Y 2 ) −(E(Y))2 = 3^2(.03) + 4^2(.05) +

5^2(.07)+6^2(.10)+7^2(.14)+8^2(.20)+9^2(.18)+10^2(.12)+11^2(.07)+12^2(.03)+13^2(.0
1) – (7.9)^2 = 4.73
standard deviation = (4.73)^(1/2) = 2.17
c) probability that the value falls between 7.9 – 4.34 and 7.9+4.34
= between 3.56 and 12.24
P(3.56 < Y < 12.24) = P(4 ≤ Y ≤ 12) = .05 + .07 + .10 + .14 + .20 + .18 + .12 + .07 + .03 =
0.96
3.48
a) use binomial distribution:

P(X=k) = (nk ) P k (1-P)n−k

5 missiles so n =5
P = 0.9

Exactly four sets detect the missile: P(X=4) = 5(0.9)4 (0.1) = 0.32805

At least one success=1-P(X=0) = 1-(1-p)n =1 – (0.1)5 = 0.99999

b) How large must n be if we require that the probability of detecting at least one
missile that enters the zone be 0.999
1-(1-p)n = 0.999
(0.1)n = 0.001 so n=3
3.60

P(X=k) = (nk ) P k (1-P)n−k

n=20, p =0.8

a)14 survive. Apply formula with n=20, p =0.8, k=14

P(X=14) = 0.109
b) at least 10. Apply formula with n=20, p =0.8, k=10 with the sum from 10 to 20

P(X≥10)= ∑20
x=10.P(X=10)=0.999

c)at most 16. Apply formula with n=20, p =0.8, k=16 with the sum from 0 to 16

P(X≤16)= ∑16
x=0.P(X=16)=0.589

d) mean and variance of survival

mean = np = 20(0.8) =16
variance = np(1-p) = 16(1-0.8)=3.2
3.71

a)

P(Y >a) = ∑inf

x=a+1 q
x−1
p = qa ∑inf
z=1 q
z−1
p = qa

Since ∑inf
z=1 q
z−1
p = P(Y >0) = q0 =1

b) P(Y > a + b l Y >a) = P(Y > a + b and Y >a)/ P(Y > a) = P(Y > a + b)/ P(Y > a) = qa+b /qa
=qb . It might be called memoryless because it has no memory of past events

c) Since every trial is independent of each other, the events on the past have no effect
on current events.
3.96
a) geometric distribution
p(X=1) = (0.6)^0(0.4) = 0.4
p(X=2) = (0.6)^1(0.4) = 0.24
p(X=3) = (0.6)^2(0.4) = 0.144

b) negative binomial distribution

use P(X=k) = Ckk+r−1 pk (1-p)r

where successed k = 2
failures r = 2

P(X=2) = 3 (0.4)2 (0.6)2 = 0.1728

3.136
2.4k
a) P(Y ≥ 5) = 1 – P(Y ≤ 4) = ∑4k=0 e−2.4 = 1-0.904 =0.096
k!

2.4k
b) P(Y > 5) = 1 – P(Y ≤ 5) = 1 – ∑5k=0 e−2.4 =1- 0.964= 0.036
k!

since this probability is very small, it is probable that the mean has changed.

3.160
a)
E(Y*) =E(n-Y) = n – E(Y) = n-np = nq
Mean of constant is itself

V(Y*)=V(n-Y)=V(Y)=npq
Variance of constant if zero
Variance of a variable that is positive or negative is the same

b)
I know:

MY(t) = E(etY ) = ∑nk=0( nk) (p)k qn−k etk = (pet + q)n (by binomial theorem)

MY*(t) = E(et(n−Y) ) = E(etn e−tY )= ent E(e−tY )= ent ∑nk=0( nk) (pet )k qn−k e−tk

= ∑nk=0( nk) (p)k qn−k et(n−k)= (qet + p)n (by binomial theorem)

c) Y* has also a binomial distribution

d) if Y* = n-Y and Y is the number of successes in a sample of size n, then Y* must be the
number of failures since Y* = n-Y gives Y*+Y=n

e) Y*+Y=n respects the propriety of a Bernoulli trial. The answers to a b and c are
“obvious” because one could say Y* represents success and Y represents failure and vice
versa.
3.177
λ=10
C=50+3Y
E(C )= E(50+3Y) = 50 +3E(Y)= 50+ 3(10)=80$
V(C )= V(50+3Y) =V(3Y)= 3^2V(Y)=3^2(10)=90
Standard deviation = (90)^(1/2) =9.487
Use Tchebysheff
At least 0.75. so 0.75 = 1-1/(k^2) so k=2
P(lX-80l < 2(9.487)) ≥ .75
So the value will lie in the interval (80-2(9.487),80+2(9.487) that is (61.03, 98.97).

4.32
a)
4
E(y) = 3/64 ∫0 y^3(4 − y)dy=2.4
4
V(y)= 3/64 ∫0 (y − 2.4)^2(y 2 )(4 − y)dy=0.64

b)
E(200Y) = 200(2.4) = $480,
V(200Y) = 200^2(.64) = 25,600.
c)
4
P(200Y > 600) = P(Y > 3) so 3/64 ∫3 y^2(4 − y)dy= 0.2616 so it will be above 600$
about 26% of the time. It’s occurrence will not be uncommon.