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International Journal of Mining Science and Technology 27 (2017) 415–421

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

International Journal of Mining Science and Technology


journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ijmst

New empirical model to evaluate groundwater flow into circular tunnel


using multiple regression analysis
Farhadian Hadi a, Katibeh Homayoon b,⇑
a
Departmen of Mining Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University of Birjand, Birjand, Iran
b
Department of Mining and Metallurgical Engineering, Amirkabir University of Technology (Tehran Polytechnic), Tehran, Iran

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: There are various analytical, empirical and numerical methods to calculate groundwater inflow into tun-
Available online 2 May 2017 nels excavated in rocky media. Analytical methods have been widely applied in prediction of groundwa-
ter inflow to tunnels due to their simplicity and practical base theory. Investigations show that the real
Keywords: amount of water infiltrating into jointed tunnels is much less than calculated amount using analytical
Groundwater inflow methods and obtained results are very dependent on tunnel‘s geometry and environmental situations.
Analytical equation In this study, using multiple regression analysis, a new empirical model for estimation of groundwater
Multiple regression analysis
seepage into circular tunnels was introduced. Our data was acquired from field surveys and laboratory
Stepwise algorithm
Tunnel
analysis of core samples. New regression variables were defined after perusing single and two variables
relationship between groundwater seepage and other variables. Finally, an appropriate model for estima-
tion of leakage was obtained using the stepwise algorithm. Statistics like R, R2 , R2P and the histogram of
residual values in the model represent a good reputation and fitness for this model to estimate the
groundwater seepage into tunnels. The new experimental model was used for the test data and results
were satisfactory. Therefore, multiple regression analysis is an effective and efficient way to estimate
the groundwater seepage into tunnels.
Ó 2017 Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of China University of Mining & Technology. This is an open
access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

1. Introduction ferent situations. Ribacchi et al., for example, introduced a solution


for lining tunnel assuming a constant hydrostatic load along the
One of the most important problems in tunneling operation is tunnel border [29]. Considering Jacob and Lohman solution, Mare-
groundwater seepage into tunnels. The most significant difficulties, chal and Perrochet used the solution to model transient ground
resulted from water seepage into tunnels, include reduction of rock water discharge into deep tunnels [30,31]. El-Tani used a Mobius
mass stability around the tunnel, imposition of extra pressure on transformation and Fourier series to present an equation for a
temporary and permanent supporting systems, reduction of tunnel semi-infinite isotropic and homogeneous aquifer drained by a cir-
advance rate, and creating financial problems [1–3]. cular tunnel [21]. Park et al. presented a closed-form analytical
Due to impossibility of recognition and exact determination of solution for the steady-state groundwater inflow into a drained cir-
all effective factors on groundwater flow into tunnels, especially cular tunnel with focus on different boundary conditions [25]. Also,
during drilling operation in rocks, exact prediction of groundwater El-Tani deliberated a solution for a semi-infinite aquifer drained by
seepage into tunnels is difficult [4,5]. Hence, analytical solutions, a circular tunnel in different heterogeneous aquifer settings using a
because of their simplifications and practical theories, have many modified Helmholtz equation [22]. Ming et al. introduced an equa-
uses in calculation of groundwater infiltration into tunnels [6,7]. tion for estimating the distribution of the hydraulic head and the
The most important researches about calculation of groundwa- pore pressure boundry condition at the tunnel perimeter in a fully
ter seepage rate into tunnels are studies of Muskat et al. [8–28]. saturated, homogenous, isotropic, and semi-infinite aquifer [32].
Specific solutions have also been effectively used to account for dif- Yet, the analytical formulas are generally valid for homogeneous
and isotropic aquifers and provide highly overestimated values of
the tunnel water inflow, especially in discontinuous rock mass
⇑ Corresponding author at: Department of Mining and Metallurgical Engineering,
where the anisotropy is high [33–36].
Amirkabir University of Technology (Tehran Polytechnic), 424 Hafez Ave., P.O.
Box 44113-15875, Tehran, Iran. In this study, the monitoring data and information of Amirkabir,
E-mail addresses: Farhadian@birjand.aut.ac.ir (H. Farhadian), Katibeh@aut.ac.ir Ghomroud and Nosoud water conveyance tunnels, where most
(H. Katibeh).

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijmst.2017.03.005
2095-2686/Ó 2017 Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of China University of Mining & Technology.
This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
416 H. Farhadian, H. Katibeh / International Journal of Mining Science and Technology 27 (2017) 415–421

parts of them drilled in discontinuous rock masses, used for intro- The general purpose of multiple regression is to learn more
ducing an empirical equation using multiple regression analyses. about the relationship between several independent or predictor
By examining the relation between the effective variables on variables and a dependent or criterion variable. In general, multiple
groundwater flow into tunnels and considering each of the analyt- regression procedures will estimate a linear equation of the form.
ical equations’ parameters for seepage into tunnel in various media
(water table, permeability coefficient, radius of the tunnel, the Y ¼ b0 þ b1 X 1 þ b2 X 2 þ    þ bn X n þ e ð1Þ
amount of overburden) and regression analysis, a new empirical
model is presented to calculate groundwater seepage into circular where e is the error rate of model. The regression coefficients or ‘b
tunnels. terms’ represent the independent contributions of each indepen-
dent variable to the prediction of the dependent variable. The
regression line expresses the best prediction of the dependent vari-
2. Analytical relations of groundwater seepage flow into tunnel able ðYÞ, given the independent variables ðXÞ. However, there is
and their validity limits usually substantial variation of the observed points around the fit-
ted regression line. The deviation of a particular point from the
Groundwater inflow depends on a number of factors, such as regression line (its predicted value) is called the residual value
the permeability of the rock mass, the groundwater table, the aper- [42,43].
ture of rock fractures, and the size of the excavation. Groundwater
inflow equations are based on Darcy’s Law and conservation of
mass [37]. Analytical methods considering the parameters such 3.2. Fitness criteria
as rock mass permeability, water table height above tunnel axis,
and tunnel radius, is used for estimation of groundwater seepage One of the points which should be considered about regression
rate into tunnels. Table 1 shows the analytical equations used to models is the assumptions that are taken into account errors. These
estimate seepage flow to tunnels. Fig. 1 shows the applied param- assumptions are: (1) the mean of errors ðeÞ is equal to zero, (2) the
eters in the equations presented in Table 1. The presented analyt- error variances ðr2 Þ is constant, (3) errors are uncorrelated, and (4)
ical equations are not valid under these conditions: the vertical errors are normally distributed. The last one is essential for testing
seepage flow towards tunnel, bedding variation in rock around the assumptions and obtaining the confidence limit. It should be
the tunnel, and inexact determination of the rock mass permeabil- noted that for assessing the fitness of the final inflow model, valid-
ity [38]. ity of the assumptions should be evaluated and analysis must be
directed to testing of the model well-fitness. Extreme deviations
from the assumptions can lead to unstable models. Normally, these
3. Materials and methods deviations are not obvious with the standard tabloid statistics such
as T or the F-statistics and R2 . These are general properties which
3.1. Multiple regression analysis
do not guarantee a good final model [44].

The multiple regression analysis is based on the relation


between effective variables on groundwater inflow into tunnels. 3.3. Structure of groundwater seepage into tunnel
Many theoretical relations can also be expressed with regression
models. However, a restriction on regression models is that they Although there are many effective factors on groundwater
are only valid in the range from which data have been extracted. inflow, a subset of regression variables, which will be used in the
Therefore, to achieve a global experimental relationship, it is nec- model, should be specified. Finding a suitable subset of regression
essary to have a lot of various series of data [40,41]. variables is called variable selection subject. Two key aspects of the

Table 1
Analytical equations for prediction of groundwater seepage into tunnels (H0 = distance between tunnel center and water table; h = hydraulic head into the tunnel; z = overburden;
r = tunnel radius; K = hydraulic conductivity; D = hydraulic load above load surface and Q = water inflow to tunnel).

Reference Equation Description


Polubarinova- Q ¼ 2pKðd£
lnð2D
0Þ For a horizontal tunnel in a fully saturated, semin-infinite homogeneous media, Polubarinova-Kochina derived an
r Þ
Kochina [9] approximate expression for Q , the steady state inflow rate per unit length of the tunnel. D is the depth of the tunnel’s
centerline; is the hydraulic head at the tunnel perimeter and d is the water height above ground
Goodman [10] Q ¼ 2pK ln h2h This equation has three basic defaults; radius flow, no significant changes in bedding, accurate application of media
ðrÞ
equivalent permeability
 
Heuer [13] Q ¼ 2pK lnH2z
0
1 Heuer reduction coefficient 18 and some changes in denominator applied in order to revise Goodman’s equation
ðrÞ 8
Lei [15] Q ¼ 2pK  qhffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi In this equation, Goodman method has been corrected with application of exact real conditions
ðhrÞ 1
2

h
ln

El-Tani [20] 13ð2h


r
Þ
2
El-Tani has defined this equation as an optimum equation by considering above mentioned equations
Q ¼ 2pK  
1ð2h Þ ln ð2h
r Þð2hÞ
r 2 r 2

Karlsrud [16] Q ¼ 2pK ln h A combination of above mentioned equations, according to field observations, is edited for reducing error in deep and
ð2hr1Þ
shallow tunnels (under water table)
Lombardi [19] Q ¼ 2pK h In this equation, Karlsrud method has been corrected with application of exact conditions
r ð1þ0:4h Þ
r2
ln2h

El-Tani [21] Q ¼ 2pK kk2 1 In this equation El-Tani has applied Mobius transformation method and fourier series and presented a new analytical
2
h
þ1 lnk
2 1=2
solution for flow calculation, in which k ¼ ðh=rÞ  ððh =r2 Þ  1Þ
2pKLðAþDÞ
Park et al. [25] Q¼  qffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi In this equation: Water table is above the land surface. Hydrostatic load along the tunnel border depending on the
ðHDÞ ðHDÞ2
ln r þ r2
1 stage is varying
Li et al. [39] Q ¼ KðS þ C:HÞ In this equation, S and C are coefficient related tot he tunnel‘s shape and depth
H. Farhadian, H. Katibeh / International Journal of Mining Science and Technology 27 (2017) 415–421 417

Fig. 1. A schematic view of groundwater inflow to a circular tunnel in a semi-infinite aquifer.

variable selection subject include: construction of subset models (1) forward, (2) backward and (3) stepwise regression which is a
and selection of the best one. combination of the two previous methods [46].
Appropriate benchmark for a regression model that has been
widely used is the coefficient of multiple determinations ðR2 Þ. Sup-
4. Analysis and discussion
pose that R2p is the coefficient of multiple determinations for a sub-
set regression model of p term, namely p  1 regression variables 4.1. Introducing the variables
and the intercept is b0 . An alternate formula for R2 is
In this study, the data and site characteristics of Amirkabir,
SSR ðpÞ SSE ðpÞ
R2p ¼ ¼1 ð2Þ Ghomroud and Nosoud Tunnels are used (Fig. 2). At different sta-
Syy Syy tions along the tunnels, the borehole cores had been obtained
The SSR ðpÞ, SSE ðpÞ and Syy represent the sum of squares regres- and data from laboratory measurements were collected. Also,
sion, the residual sum of squares and the total sum of squares for raw and processed data from joints survey and lugeon tests were
a subset model with p term respectively. This equation shows that available. In addition, groundwater inflow from these tunnels
had been recorded exactly. Table 2 presents the main parameters
adding predictors to a regression will always increase R2 as the p
of different sections in the studied tunnels for estimation of
will decrease. Therefore, analyst adds regression variables to the
groundwater inflow.
model until when by adding a new variable to the model, R2p
Amirkabir water conveyance tunnel is detailed as follows: the
increases only slightly [45]. 30 km Amirkabir tunnel is located in Alborz mountain range in
Iran. The tunnel is located in the Karaj Formation consisting of
3.3.1. Adjusted coefficient of multiple determinations complex sedimentary and volcanic rocks such as monzodiorite,
To avoid misinterpretation from R2 , some analysts prefer to use gabro, tuff, sandstone and conglomerate limestone. Amirkabir tun-
the adjusted R2 ðR2p Þ statistic which for a subset p, is defined as nel was operated to transfer water from Amirkabir dam to Tehran
[47–49].
follows:
Ghomroud water conveyance tunnel is demonstrated as

n1 follows: The 36 km Ghomroud tunnel was bored in order to convey


R2p ¼ 1  ð1  R2p Þ ð3Þ water from Dez River Basin to Ghomroud Basin. The tunnel site is
np
located in the Sannadaj-Sirjan geological zone. These formations
where n is the number of observations in the data set; and p is the consist of a series of asymmetric folding and faults and crosses
number of independent variables. The R2p can be negative, and will from mild to high metamorphisms. The lithology of this area com-
prises of a sequence of Jurassic-Cretaceous formation. The Creata-
always be less than or equal to R2 . Consequently, a benchmark for
ceous formation consists of massive limestone and dolomite while
selecting an appropriate subset model is selection of model with
the Jurassic formation mainly consists of slate, schist and meta-
maximum R2p .
morphic shale and sandstone units. According to preliminary geo-
logical engineering studies, the main strata along the tunnel
3.3.2. Selecting the variable appeared to be schistose rocks such as pelitic schist, calcareous
Since evaluating all possible regressions in terms of computa- schist, and graphitic phyllite with interlayers of meta-dolomite
tional work is time-consuming, various methods have been devel- and meta-quartzite [50].
oped to assess only a small number of regression models by adding Nosoud water conveyance tunnel is present as follows: the
or removing a subset of regression variables individually. In Nosoud tunnel is one of the longest water conveying tunnels in
general, these methods are classified into three broad categories: Iran at 48 km. The tunnel was driven to divert Sirwan river water
418 H. Farhadian, H. Katibeh / International Journal of Mining Science and Technology 27 (2017) 415–421

Fig. 2. Tectonic map of Iran and the study areas.

Table 2
Main parameters of the different sections in the studied tunnels for estimation of the water flow using multiple regression analyses.

Parameter Range of variation Formation/zone


Number of data 110 Karaj (Amirkabir Tunnel) Sanandaj-Sirjan Pabdeh (Nosoud Tunnel)
(section) (Ghomroud Tunnel)
Over burden (m) 65–670 The Karaj formation typically consists of This zone is formed of Pabdeh formation overlies Gurpi
Water head (m) 55–535 volcanoclastic material, which immense volumes of formation disconformably and it
Tunnel radius (m) 2.35–2.8 accumulated in a marine environment. magmatic and contains purple shale, shales and clay
Permeability (m/s) 5  108–2.36  106 The unit, which is of Eocene age, is metamorphic rocks of limestones, clay limestones with cherty
Water flow observed 6.7  103–4.9  101 highly fractured and weathered along Paleozoic and Mesozoic nodules and dark shales
(L/s) fault locations and contains many eras.
intrusive rocks.

toward Dashte Zahab in Azgale region in the west part of Kerman-


shah Province. The tunnel passes through Pabdeh, Gurpi and Ilam
formations. The oldest geologic units along the tunnel route are
gray-brown iron ore from Ilam formation. The tunnel passes
through hard and open fractured limestone with high local
groundwater inflows. Observations during the construction phase
suggest that open fractures in the limestone layers are the main
reason for the high water inflow. Based on geological survey
results, the main rock units that the tunnel passes through include:
shale, limestone and layers of marble [51].
As mentioned in part 3, the linear regression technique is based
on the relationship between the effective variables and groundwater
seepage flow. Therefore, four variables were selected for the
regression model, which was associated with the groundwater
seepage into tunnel and available from the tunnel site information.
These variables include: the observed flow ðQ Þ which is dependent
on the coefficient of permeability ðKÞ, the distance from tunnel axis
to groundwater table ðhÞ, overburden thickness ðzÞ and the tunnel
radius ðrÞ.
First, to neutralize the effect of different scales with various Fig. 3. Trend of predicted water inflow (Q p ) versus observed water inflow (Q o ) for
characters, all variables were normalized between zero and one. the training data from Eq. (4).
H. Farhadian, H. Katibeh / International Journal of Mining Science and Technology 27 (2017) 415–421 419

Fig. 4. Histogram of residual values for estimated training data from the Eq. (4).

The correlation coefficients between groundwater flow and the rates in the tunnels for which their domain is presented in Table 2),
other variables show a relatively weak relationship. It is empha- approximately 30% was selected randomly for testing the model
sized that a simple model cannot be a good solution for analysis and the rest were used for network training.
of groundwater seepage into tunnel. Therefore it is inevitable to
use multivariate models. From the available data (measured inflow 4.2. Determination of single-and two-variable relationship between
groundwater seepage and other variables

At this stage, the relationship between groundwater seepage


and variables was investigated. For example, the relationship
between groundwater inflow to tunnel (Q ) and the coefficient of
permeability (K), in most of the analytical equations is in which
a is constant and f ðxÞ is a function of the composition parameters
z, h, r, Lnð2h=rÞ, Lnð2z=rÞ, Z 2 , etc. Of course, it is worth mentioning
that due to the software limitations, it is impossible to investigate
the relationship of more than two variables.

4.3. Variable selection using stepwise regression method

At this stage, all the relations obtained from the previous stage
were defined as new variables. So, using the stepwise algorithm,
the appropriate regression equation between the four primary
variables and several new variables can be obtained. F IN statistics
for input variables in the model of the 90% confidence level is 0.1
and F OUT to discard it from the equation, because it was smaller
Fig. 5. Trend of predicted water inflow (Q p ) versus observed water inflow (Q o ) for than the F IN is 0.15 was considered. The final regression model is
the test data from the Eq. (4). obtained as follow:

Fig. 6. Comparison between observed and predicted groundwater inflow for test data.
420 H. Farhadian, H. Katibeh / International Journal of Mining Science and Technology 27 (2017) 415–421

!
1:217 0:741 0:739r model represent a good correlation to observed groundwater
Q ¼ 0:004 þ 200Khp    2z þ 2
ð4Þ seepage into tunnels.
ln 2h
r
ln r ðlnzÞ
(4) The proposed empirical model for estimating groundwater
seepage into tunnel is used for the test data and results
R ¼ 0:963; R2 ¼ 0:927; R2p ¼ 0:924 are satisfactory. Therefore, the above-mentioned
The unit of the proposed model (Q ) is (L=s=m). methodology is an effective and efficient way to estimate
the groundwater seepage into tunnel.
The statistic, R2 and in the model Eq. (4) are in an acceptable
range and from this perspective, the above-model is considered
valid. Trend of predicted water inflow (Q p ) versus observed water
inflow (Q o ) in Fig. 3 indicates the validation of the model. In Fig. 3, Acknowledgements
the training data (predicted) are placed in front of their actual
values. The authors would like to thank Institute of SCE and
In Fig. 4, histogram of residual values for estimating training Mahab Ghods Consultant Engineering Company, especially
data in this model has been plotted. As can be seen, the histogram Dr. J. Hasanpour, Dr. A. AaliAnvari and his colleagues in the
shows a zero mean, variance close to one and the normal distribu- Tunneling Division for their help in the collection of required data.
tion which firmly insists a proper fit of the model.
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