Hypothesis Testing Introduction

Hypotheses

Assumptions about parameters

Simple & composite

Null & Alternative

Test

Accept or reject null

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➞ Parameter estimation

Point estimates

Confidence intervals

➞ Become the…

Grade credit
“Hypothesis
Testing”
 Hypotheses
Assumptions (statements) about parameters Distribution Population

A coin is biased

Average student GPA is < 3.0

Amazon average delivery time > 2 days

People tweet more on weekend

Men play more video games than women on average

 Hypotheses Types
Simple Parameter takes a single specific value
μ = 4.5 σ = 2.4

Composite Parameter takes one of several values

μ ∈ {4.5, 6.3} μ>σ σ ∈ [4.5, 6.3)

One-sided μ ≤ 2.3 μ > 4.5

Two-sided μ ≤ 2.3 or > 4.5 μ < 2.3 or > 2.3 μ ≠ 2.3

 Null and Alternative Hypotheses
Often Assumption believed to be true

Null Status quo hypothesis H0

Complementary view

Alternative Research hypothesis H1 HA

HA often Complement or “one-side complement” of H0

 Simple H0
Null Alternative

Unbiased Biased ph ≠ 0.5 2-sided

Coin
ph=0.5 Heads more likely ph > 0.5 1-sided

Gender equality Same Different average GPA 2-sided

average GPA average GPA
Men’s average GPA is higher 1-sided
Not exactly
simple: {(x,x)}
 One-Sided H0
Smartphones Null Alternative
iOS x Android

≥ 60% use iOS < 60% of phones use iOS

Checkout
Not exactly one
Self x Cashier
sided: {(x,y): x<y}

Self checkout faster Self checkout slower

 How to Test
Design experiment Gather data
Equivalently
Reject null in favor
✅
Data consistent ❌ of alternative Strong evidence
with null for alternative
hypothesis? ✅ ❌ hypothesis?
Do not reject null

Conservative Reject null (status quo)

Only if strong evidence against it

Two analogies
 Test v. Trial
Hypothesis test

✅ Reject null in favor

Strong evidence
of alternative
for alternative
hypothesis?
❌ Do not reject null

Court trial
Innocence = Null
✅ Guilty
Strong
incriminating Presumed innocence
evidence? ❌
Not guilty Rejected only by
strong evidence
 Test vs. Myth
✅ Reject null in favor
Strong evidence
Hypothesis test of alternative
for alternative
hypothesis?
❌ Do not reject null

✅ Accept
Strong
evidence
for myth? ❌ Keep default belief

Design a test
 Testing Hypotheses
Design Experiment Test

Define numerical outcome T Test statistic Related to hypothesis

Determine distribution of T under H0 PH0(T=t)

Observe data Calculate value t of the test statistic T

Large H0 consistent with data Do not reject H0 Accept H0

PH0(t)
H0 inconsistent with data Reject H0 in favor of HA
Small
t towards HA Intuitive ➞ Formal
 Coin Bias, 1-Sided HA
H0 Unbiased ph = 0.5 Simple null Distribution
of X under H0
HA Biased towards heads ph > 0.5 1-sided

Test
Test statistic Number of heads X

Intuitive
Accept H0 Reject H0
X ≥ 16 Unlikely under H0 More likely under HA
Reject null in favor of HA
X < 15 Do not reject null
 Coin Bias, 2-Sided HA
H0 Unbiased ph = 0.5 Simple null Distribution
of X under H0
HA Biased ph ≠ 0.5 2-sided

Test
Test statistic Number of heads X

Intuitively

5 ≤ X ≤ 15 Do not reject H0 Accept H0 Reject H0 Accept H0 Reject H0

Otherwise Reject H0 in favor of HA

Hypothesis Testing Introduction

Assumptions about parameters

Simple & composite

Null & Alternative

Test

Accept or reject null

Hypothesis Testing

p Values
 Hypothesis Testing - p Values
More systematic & precise

Significance level

Critical values

p values

One- two- sided alternatives

Found something we like Put a number on it

5%
#

Just need
 Coin Bias
H0 : ph = 0.5 HA : ph > 0.5 Data X:#
Unbiased Heads more likely Test Statistic

Type-I Error H0 : Coin unbiased We declare HA : heads more likely

PH0(x)
Under H0 X ~ B0.5,20 PH0(x)

➞ Eyeballed

➞ More systematic
Retain H0 Accept HA
 Nomenclature Spiro
Agnew
Complicated word for terminology Apropos Appropriate
We have more than
HA Reject H0 in favor of HA Reject H0 Accept HA our share of nattering
nabobs of negativism.

H0 Do not reject H0 Data not significant H0 plausible Accept H0 Retain H0

“Reluctantly retain”
Why verbal gymnastics? Test asymmetric

X=12 Accept H0?

What if ph = 0.6? 0.55? Better explain 12 than pH = 0.5

Don't know that H0 true Just not enough data to reject it

 Significance Level
Reject null (status quo) hypothesis H0
only if strong evidence for alternative HA

Precise probabilistic formulation Tiny

Significance level α Typically 5% 1%

If H0 is true, accept HA with probability ≤ α

PH0 ( accept HA ) ≤ α
Type-I error
Two Critical p
Conservative methods Values Values
 Critical-Value
H0 : ph = 0.5 HA : ph > 0.5 Data X:#

H0 X ≈ 10 If accept HA when X = 16 ➞ 17 ➞ 18 ➞ 19 ➞ 20

Threshold Critical value xα PH0(x)

≥ xα ➞ Accept HA
X
< xα ➞ Retain H0

xα ➞ Significance level α Retain H0 Accept HA

Upper bound on PH0(accept HA) critical value xα What is xα ?

 Finding xα
H0 : ph = 0.5 HA : ph > 0.5 Data X:#

Critical value xα X < xα ➞ Retain H0 X ≥ xα ➞ accept HA

α Significance level 5% 1% Type-I error PH0(x)

PH0 ( X ≥ xα )= PH0 (falsely accept HA) ≤α

Need PH0 ( X ≥ xα ) ≤ α P>α

P≤α
xα large Almost never declare HA
Retain H0 Accept HA
Smallest x such that PH0 ( X ≥ x ) ≤ α xα
 Example: x5% and x1%
H0 : ph = 0.5 HA : ph > 0.5 Data X:#
Significance α = 5% Critical value x5% Smallest x PH0 (X ≥ x) ≤ 5%
PH (x)
0

#heads x PH0 (x)

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% = PH0 (X
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x)
20 1
20 20 220 0.0001% 0.0001%
20 1 PH0 (X ≥ 15) ≈ 2.07% ≤ 5%
19 19 220 0.0019% 0.002%
20 1 P
PH0 (X ≥ 14) ≈ 5.77% > 5%
18 18 220 0.0181% 0.0201% ≤ P
20 1 5 > Accept HA
17 17 220 0.1087% 0.1288% % 5
%
20 1
16 16 220 0.4621% 0.5909% x1% = 16
20 1
15 15 220 1.4786% 2.0695% x5% = 15
20 1
14 14 220 3.6964% 5.7659% Retain H0
 Room for Improvement
Significance level α 5% Critical value xα 15

< xα Retain H0
X
≥ xα Accept HA
Retain H0 Accept
xα HA
Practically Observe one value x of X X = 13 Retain H0 or accept HA

Get around finding smallest x for accepting HA?

Can
we..
Find a rule just for X itself?
 p (probability) Values
Critical value x5% 15 Smallest x PH0 (X ≥ x) ≤ 5%

≥ x5% Accept HA x ≥ x5% PH0 (X ≥ x) ≤ PH0 (X ≥ x5%) ≤ 5%

X PH0(x)
< x5% Retain H0 x < x5% PH0 (X ≥ x) > 5%

p value ≤ 5% x ≥ x5% Accept HA

PH0 (X ≥ x) P>5%
of x
> 5% x < x5% Retain H0 P≤5%

Same H0 and HA regions as before!

Retain H0 Accept HA
Intuitively P under H0 small ➞ HA more likely x5%
 p Values Example
H0 : ph = 0.5 HA : ph > 0.5 Data X:#

Significance α = 5% Critical value x5% = 15 X≥15 ➞ HA X<15 ➞ H0

# heads x PH0 (x)
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sha1_base64="oS9LNu4p4Xz+pQshhVfMTpCzKzQ=">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</latexit>
% = PH0 (X
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sha1_base64="a1cxE3QFXaDlQcgOQvLnFIroA8U=">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</latexit>
x) p value ≤ 5% x ≥ x5% Accept HA
20 1
20 20 220 0.0001% 0.0001% HA > 5% x < x5% Retain H0
20 1
19 19 220 0.0019% 0.002%
20 1
p value of x
18 18 220 0.0181% 0.0201%
17
20 1
0.1087% 0.1288% Probability X≥x
17 220 α=
20 1
16 16 220 0.4621% 0.5909% 1% ≤ α accept HA
20 1
15 220 1.4786% 2.0695% HA H0
15
20 1
> α retain H0
14 3.6964% 5.7659% H0
14 220
 Opposite Alternative
H0 : ph = 0.5 HA : ph < 0.5 Data X:#

Significance level α 5% 1% PH0 (falsely accept HA) ≤ α

r e s
Critical value xα Largest x s.t. PH0 (X ≤ x) ≤ α s u
en
PH0(x)
≤ xα Accept HA Small error under HA
X
> xα Retain H0
P> α
P≤ α
α = 5% By symmetry x5% = 5
Accept HA xα Retain H0
 Using p Values
H0 : ph = 0.5 HA : ph < 0.5 Data X:#

Significance level α = 5%
# heads x PH0 (x)
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sha1_base64="cY55gjYIpW1Mu2ckCt6yZtzYYyI=">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</latexit>
sha1_base64="Fu95BCRHCSUTmh7xa0nc6sKfTsA=">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</latexit>
sha1_base64="oS9LNu4p4Xz+pQshhVfMTpCzKzQ=">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</latexit>
% PH0 (X x) p value ≤ 5% x ≤ x5% Accept HA
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sha1_base64="1Eh45hVqn/1jMcOddiFX1lSBv8g=">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</latexit>
sha1_base64="+ipJgTLCNud0jqcWgMvd5nlhzzA=">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</latexit>

20 1
0 20 220 0.0001% 0.0001% HA > 5% x > x5% Retain H0
20 1
1 19 220 0.0019% 0.002%
20 1 x PH0(x)
2 18 220 0.0181% 0.0201%
20 1 x
3 0.1087% 0.1288%
17 220 α= > 6%
20 1
4 16 220 0.4621% 0.5909% 1% ≤ 5%
20 1
5 15 220 1.4786% 2.0695% HA H0 Accept
Retain H0
20 1 H0 HA x5%
6 14 220 3.6964% 5.7659%
 Two-Sided Alternative
H0 : ph = 0.5 HA : ph ≠ 0.5 Data X:#

Unbiased Two-sided H0 Mean μX = 10

Intuition PH0 (x)

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sha1_base64="zDBwdamiaYaT51xAMiDjiPjAC/A=">AAAEDnicbVJNb9MwGPZWPkb42uDIJaKr2FCZkowJJjFpAgQ7gChohUlzVTnO2zSaY0eOyzq5/hH8Dy47cUJcOXNDcODAD8FOt9Fus5T49ePneb/8xgXLShUEP2dmaxcuXro8d8W7eu36jZvzC7fel2IgKbSpYELuxKQElnFoq0wx2CkkkDxm8CHee+buP3wEWWaCb6uDAjo5SXnWyyhRFurOv2hstLp6qxuYpdHOgzAY4RRGQ2csew3MABNW9InXGF8+GQ27Y8SdvGPlcLk7Xw9Wgmr5Z43wyKhv3vt7+Ach1OouzB7iRNBBDlxRRspyN4wK1dFEqowyMB4elFAQukdS2LUmJzmUHV0VbPyGb6HE7wlpP678Cp6UaJKX5UEeN+2eE9V3Erf7DhSsnHaveo87OuPFQAGnjppkhMrMZuLTPpGEKttBD3PYpyLPCU9wi0jgu2FH2xb11JKuhwbLLO2rZTPFy1IuJDjiFK4xJEbjUtkMJDCNFQyVTqBnjN4wlmpNnPEECrA/vl0P65HGroCKLRkp9KIDFw3O90DyKB9odzbmVPwTH0rjQgoFVFV+CsJAKfgPTkSzmRUgC+fqOdjHkfDaKt5YjCgh79tsBbMcJnha1UykFPvGjstE/4cnL9W3FOZovivSsmxtdlire11dxGwARr97+dToKFptRg+jZrS2Zs6jphKAH3NXA8tdb1qN4052145UbKrnqbSxGE5Gso91jiA9T3AUr1J4dsjD0yN91mhHK+sr4duwvvkKjdccuoPuoiUUokdoE22hFmojij6jH+gX+l37VPtS+1r7NqbOzhxpbqOpVfv+D4LWXaM=</latexit>
sha1_base64="wQpCnyYpvAfbae5fNodXjk4w1OE=">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</latexit>

H0 X close to 10
Under
HA X far from 10

small Retain H0
|X
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10| Accept HA Retain H0 Accept HA
large Accept HA
 Critical Value
H0 : ph = 0.5 HA : ph ≠ 0.5 Data X:#

Significance level α Upper bound on type-I error H0 Mean μX = 10

Critical value xα x closest to 10 s.t. = PH0 (|X

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10| |x 10|)  ↵
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sha1_base64="tFmv3WYw84MT4q+hLPSt5yPZ/p4=">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</latexit>
|x↵ 10| Accept HA PH0 (x)
<latexit sha1_base64="fTcBtyWBxotduXoixIVwlsVFh2A=">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</latexit>
sha1_base64="1cSmYfLS1UX3gWSEacfPSTqydL0=">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</latexit>
sha1_base64="zLoDrl3iN/pZXJpQBxFn3+XosIM=">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</latexit>

|X 10|
< |x↵
<latexit sha1_base64="DdBLwruLWaw4OU5rdprroqvykTU=">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</latexit>
sha1_base64="hM1Z6raPTnAWHK5i6DGmYERXgzk=">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</latexit>
sha1_base64="4CqkJz5ll5C1M2TgnYyoQVIJ7Mc=">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</latexit>

10| Retain H0
<latexit sha1_base64="Cyl37q+fEGfBTgPF9TKMBafYRnU=">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</latexit>
sha1_base64="hAqDErjS1FmG0WSWGSisTWSE/BM=">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</latexit>
sha1_base64="8q7to2RI9pPoi4JAFNkSUqlo83I=">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</latexit>

p>α
PH0(type-I error) = PH0 (|X 10| |x↵ 10|)  ↵ <latexit sha1_base64="uHd3uuPJV8C5h1DVykYQIu4O7Zo=">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</latexit>
sha1_base64="LS5IDEZektwYnEYDLGKb7SX1f64=">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</latexit>
sha1_base64="F20UWSDi3yAXMZyQzUFKnidSvcw=">AAAEG3icbVLLbtQwFHU7PEp4tbCDTUQ6UouGKkmpoItKFSDRBYiBdmilejRykjuZqI4dOR46lWuJL+AT+AeW7FkhtiCxQmIFf4GdtGWmraXE18fn3IfvjQqaldL3f05NNy5cvHR55opz9dr1Gzdn5269LflQxNCJOeViJyIl0IxBR2aSwk4hgOQRhe1o76m9334Hosw425IHBXRzkrKsn8VEGqg3u9lca/fURs/XC4c7DwL/EKdwOOopTGgxINoiiw6mUJ+dZk1ymjWtRmvk2M1osTfr+Ut+tdyzRnBkeOt33m/+/uF9aPfmpj/hhMfDHJiMKSnL3SAsZFcRIbOYgnbwsISCxHskhV1jMpJD2VVV9dptugZK3D4X5mPSreBxiSJ5WR7kUcvsOZEDK7G7a0FOy0n3sv+4qzJWDCWw2FKTjMQiM5m48YAIEkvznA5msB/zPCcswW0igO0GXWXeqS8XlBdoLLJ0IBf1BC9LGRdgiRO4wpBohUtpMhBAFZYwkiqBvtZqTRuqMXHGEijA/NiWF3ihwraAii0oKdS8Bec1zvdAsDAfKnvW+lT8Ex9S4UJwCbGs/BSEgpTwHxyLZjIrQBTW1TMwzRHw0iheGYxILu6bbDk1HMpZWtVMhOD72gzI2PuPTjo1MBRqaa4t0rBMbWZyq3tVXUR0CFq9ef5EqzBcboUPw1a4sqLPo6YCgB1zl33DXW0ZjeWOv64ZqUhX7am0ER+NRzLNOkeQnic4ilcpHDPkwemRPmt0wqXVpeB14K2/QPWaQXfRPbSAAvQIraMN1EYdFKPP6Bf6g/42Pja+NL42vtXU6akjzW00sRrf/wGez2Oz</latexit>
p≤α
<latexit sha1_base64="ivAp7BVUkbwPKh91Q4HPuDnNPYo=">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</latexit>
sha1_base64="5s+X7DT8BE2s6a2iZ8qcQGQeD3o=">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</latexit>
sha1_base64="g4LYdkLYzN1FDDRdc0tS7yqcK60=">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</latexit>

Accept HA Retain H0 Accept HA

xα closest to 10 minimizes type-II error
xα 20-xα
 PH0 (x)
p Values <latexit sha1_base64="1El80L+7rYONLBoXZtUiH5VROJU=">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</latexit>
sha1_base64="KB3dadF4EQci3ulwS/Li93fGydg=">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</latexit>
sha1_base64="oS9LNu4p4Xz+pQshhVfMTpCzKzQ=">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</latexit>

p value of x PH0 (X is at least as far from 10 as x)

<latexit sha1_base64="iBSOarle0sMj46a1Qdiet4GhTqs=">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</latexit>
sha1_base64="YY9z8g8sf3ro7ISO16KDnj4XHD4=">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</latexit>
sha1_base64="4kB1nIs+VkLZsRek84eDnFOUehU=">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</latexit>

= PH0 (|X
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sha1_base64="hRjIPAnXVyCPRF1AEmw301KEgO8=">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</latexit>
sha1_base64="JwYk5Z/4jCNbijI+xcgxfPCo9X8=">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</latexit>
10| |x 10|)

Low p value x far from mean x 20-x

Low H0 prob of outcome x or further towards HA

x less likely to be generated under H0

High p value x far from mean

High H0 prob of outcome x or further towards HA
x more likely to be generated under H0
 p Values ➞ Hypotheses
p value of x PH0 (X is at least as far from 10 as x)= PH0 (|X
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sha1_base64="YY9z8g8sf3ro7ISO16KDnj4XHD4=">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</latexit>
sha1_base64="4kB1nIs+VkLZsRek84eDnFOUehU=">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</latexit>
5% Significance level
<latexit sha1_base64="PV60uVGSjv14qbTU5grmfeuYpEY=">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</latexit>
sha1_base64="hRjIPAnXVyCPRF1AEmw301KEgO8=">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</latexit>
sha1_base64="JwYk5Z/4jCNbijI+xcgxfPCo9X8=">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</latexit>
10| |x 10|)
PH0 (x)
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x |X-10| ≥ |x-10| p value of x

0,20 0.0002% HA
1,19 0.0040%
2,18 0.0402% x 20-x

3,17 0.2577%
≤ 5% Accept HA
4,16 1.1818%
p value
5,15 4.1389% HA > 5% Retain H0

6,14 11.5318% H0
 General p value
p value of statistic t of T PH0(T is t or further towards HA)

Significance level α

≤α Accept HA
p value
>α Retain H0
 Hypothesis Testing - p Values
More systematic & precise

Significance level

Critical values
p values

One- two- sided alternatives

Lady Tasting Tea