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For other uses, see Civil war (disambiguation). ously in the first half of the 20th century while there were
For specific wars, see List of civil wars, American Civil over 20 concurrent civil wars close to the end of the Cold
War, English Civil War, and Spanish Civil War. War. Since 1945, civil wars have resulted in the deaths
“Civil conflict” redirects here. For the college football of over 25 million people, as well as the forced displace-
game, see Civil Conflict (college football game). ment of millions more. Civil wars have further resulted in
economic collapse; Somalia, Burma (Myanmar), Uganda
and Angola are examples of nations that were considered
to have promising futures before being engulfed in civil
wars.[5]
1 Formal classification
1
2 2 CAUSES OF CIVIL WAR IN THE COLLIER–HOEFFLER MODEL
a small fraction of the millions killed in the Second Su- interpreted as rigid conditions. The conditions listed by
danese Civil War and Cambodian Civil War, for exam- the ICRC in its commentary are as follows:[7][8]
ple, but excludes several highly publicized conflicts, such (1) That the Party in revolt against the de jure Govern-
as The Troubles of Northern Ireland and the struggle of ment possesses an organized military force, an authority
the African National Congress in Apartheid-era South responsible for its acts, acting within a determinate ter-
Africa.[3] ritory and having the means of respecting and ensuring
Based on the 1000 casualties per year criterion, there respect for the Convention.
were 213 civil wars from 1816 to 1997, 104 of which oc- (2) That the legal Government is obliged to have recourse
curred from 1944 to 1997.[3] If one uses the less-stringent to the regular military forces against insurgents organized
1000 casualties total criterion, there were over 90 civil as military and in possession of a part of the national ter-
wars between 1945 and 2007, with 20 ongoing civil wars ritory.
as of 2007.[1]
(3) (a) That the de jure Government has recognized the
The Geneva Conventions do not specifically define the insurgents as belligerents; or (b) That it has claimed for
term “civil war”, nevertheless they do outline the respon- itself the rights of a belligerent; or (c) That it has accorded
sibilities of parties in “armed conflict not of an interna- the insurgents recognition as belligerents for the purposes
tional character”. This includes civil wars, however no only of the present Convention; or (d) That the dispute
specific definition of civil war is provided in the text of has been admitted to the agenda of the Security Council
the Conventions. or the General Assembly of the United Nations as being
a threat to international peace, a breach of the peace, or
an act of aggression.
(4) (a) That the insurgents have an organization purport-
ing to have the characteristics of a State. (b) That the
insurgent civil authority exercises de facto authority over
the population within a determinate portion of the na-
tional territory. (c) That the armed forces act under the
direction of an organized authority and are prepared to
observe the ordinary laws of war. (d) That the insurgent
civil authority agrees to be bound by the provisions of the
Convention.
Availability of finance
Opportunity cost of rebellion High levels of population dispersion and, to a lesser ex-
tent, the presence of mountainous terrain, increased the
Higher male secondary school enrollment, per capita in- chance of conflict. Both of these factors favor rebels,
come and economic growth rate all had significant ef- as a population dispersed outward toward the borders is
fects on reducing the chance of civil war. Specifically, a harder to control than one concentrated in a central re-
male secondary school enrollment 10% above the aver- gion, while mountains offer terrain where rebels can seek
age reduced the chance of a conflict by about 3%, while sanctuary.[11]
a growth rate 1% higher than the study average resulted
in a decline in the chance of a civil war of about 1%. The Grievance
4 4 DURATION OF CIVIL WARS
Most proxies for “grievance” – the theory that civil wars 4 Duration of civil wars
begin because of issues of identity, rather than eco-
nomics – were statistically insignificant, including eco- Ann Hironaka, author of Neverending Wars, divides the
nomic equality, political rights, ethnic polarization and modern history of civil wars into the pre-19th century,
religious fractionalization. Only ethnic dominance, the 19th century to early 20th century, and late 20th cen-
case where the largest ethnic group comprises a majority tury. In 19th-century Europe, the length of civil wars
of the population, increased the risk of civil war. A coun- fell significantly, largely due to the nature of the conflicts
try characterized by ethnic dominance has nearly twice as battles for the power center of the state, the strength
the chance of a civil war. However, the combined effects of centralized governments, and the normally quick and
of ethnic and religious fractionalization, i.e. the greater decisive intervention by other states to support the gov-
chance that any two randomly chosen people will be from ernment. Following World War II the duration of civil
separate ethnic or religious groups, the less chance of a wars grew past the norm of the pre-19th century, largely
civil war, were also significant and positive, as long as the due to weakness of the many postcolonial states and the
country avoided ethnic dominance. The study interpreted intervention by major powers on both sides of conflict.
this as stating that minority groups are more likely to rebel The most obvious commonality to civil wars are that they
if they feel that they are being dominated, but that rebel- occur in fragile states.[16]
lions are more likely to occur the more homogeneous the
population and thus more cohesive the rebels. These two
factors may thus be seen as mitigating each other in many 4.1 Civil wars in the 19th and early 20th
cases.[13] centuries
Population size
Time
The more time that has elapsed since the last civil war, the
less likely it is that a conflict will recur. The study had two An artillery school set up by the anti-socialist “Whites” during the
possible explanations for this: one opportunity-based and Finnish Civil War, 1918
the other grievance-based. The elapsed time may rep-
resent the depreciation of whatever capital the rebellion Civil wars in the 19th century and in the early 20th cen-
was fought over and thus increase the opportunity cost of tury tended to be short; civil wars between 1900 and 1944
restarting the conflict. Alternatively, elapsed time may lasted on average one and half years.[17] The state itself
represent the gradual process of healing of old hatreds. formed the obvious center of authority in the majority of
The study found that the presence of a diaspora substan- cases, and the civil wars were thus fought for control of
tially reduced the positive effect of time, as the fund- the state. This meant that whoever had control of the cap-
ing from diasporas offsets the depreciation of rebellion- ital and the military could normally crush resistance. A
specific capital.[13] rebellion which failed to quickly seize the capital and con-
trol of the military for itself normally found itself doomed
to rapid destruction. For example, the fighting associated
3 Other causes with the 1871 Paris Commune occurred almost entirely
in Paris, and ended quickly once the military sided with
[18]
Evolutionary psychologist Satoshi Kanazawa has argued the government at Versailles and conquered Paris.
that an important cause of intergroup conflict may be the The power of non-state actors resulted in a lower value
relative availability of women of reproductive age. He placed on sovereignty in the 18th and 19th centuries,
found that polygyny greatly increased the frequency of which further reduced the number of civil wars. For
civil wars but not interstate wars.[14] Gleditsch et al. did example, the pirates of the Barbary Coast were recog-
not find a relationship between ethnic groups with polyg- nized as de facto states because of their military power.
yny and increased frequency of civil wars but nations hav- The Barbary pirates thus had no need to rebel against the
ing legal polygamy may have more civil wars. They ar- Ottoman Empire – their nominal state government – to
gued that misogyny is a better explanation than polygyny. gain recognition for their sovereignty. Conversely, states
They found that increased women’s rights were are asso- such as Virginia and Massachusetts in the United States
ciated with less civil wars and that legal polygamy had no of America did not have sovereign status, but had signif-
effect after women’s rights were controlled for.[15] icant political and economic independence coupled with
4.2 Civil wars since 1945 5
The Cold War (1945–1989) provided a global network [2] Nations, Markets, and War: Modern History and the
of material and ideological support that often helped per- American Civil War | Book Reviews, EH.net. “Two na-
tions [within the U.S.] developed because of slavery.” Oc-
petuate civil wars, which were mainly fought in weak
tober 2006. Retrieved July 2009.
ex-colonial states rather than the relatively strong states
that were aligned with the Warsaw Pact and North At- [3] Ann Hironaka, Neverending Wars: The International
lantic Treaty Organization. In some cases, superpowers Community, Weak States, and the Perpetuation of Civil
would superimpose Cold War ideology onto local con- War, Harvard University Press: Cambridge, Mass., 2005,
flicts, while in others local actors using Cold War ideol- p. 3, ISBN 0-674-01532-0
8 7 BIBLIOGRAPHY
[4] “Civil Wars and Foreign Powers: Outside Intervention in [30] Hironaka, 2005, pp. 6
Intrastate Conflict”. Foreign Affairs.
[31] Hironaka, 2005, p. 16
[5] Hironaka (2005), pp. 1–2, 4–5
[32] Hironaka, 2005, pp. 37–40
[6] Edward Wong, “A Matter of Definition: What Makes a
[33] Hironaka, 2005, pp. 50–51
Civil War, and Who Declares It So?" New York Times
November 26, 2006 [34] Hironaka, 2005, pp. 48-50
[7] Final Record of the Diplomatic Conference of Geneva of
1949, (Volume II-B, p. 121)
7 Bibliography
[8] See also the International Committee of the Red Cross
commentary on Third 1949 Geneva Convention, Article
III, Section “A. Cases of armed conflict” for the ICRC’s • Ali, Taisier Mohamed Ahmed and Robert O.
reading of the definition and a listing of proposed alternate Matthews, eds. Civil Wars in Africa: roots and res-
wording olution (1999), 322 pages
[9] See, for example, Hironaka (2005), pp. 9–10, and Collier, • Mats Berdal and David M. Malone, Greed and
Paul, Anke Hoeffler and Nicholas Sambanis, “The Collier- Grievance: Economic Agendas in Civil Wars (Lynne
Hoeffler Model of Civil War Onset and the Case Study Rienner, 2000).
Project Research Design,” in Collier & Sambanis, Vol 1,
p. 13 • Paul Collier, Breaking the Conflict Trap: civil war
and development policy World Bank (2003) – 320
[10] Collier & Sambanis, Vol 1, p. 17 pages
[11] Collier & Sambanis, Vol 1, p. 16 • Collier, Paul; Sambanis, Nicholas, eds. (2005).
[12] Henrik Urdal – A CLASH OF GENERATIONS? Understanding Civil War:Evidence and Analysis. 1:
YOUTH BULGES AND POLITICAL VIOLENCE – Africa. Washington, DC: The World Bank. ISBN
un.org. Retrieved 28 December 2012. 978-0-8213-6047-7.
[13] Collier & Sambanis, Vol 1, p. 18 • Collier, Paul; Sambanis, Nicholas, eds. (2005).
Understanding Civil War:Evidence and Analysis. 2:
[14] Satoshi Kanazawa (2009). “Evolutionary Psychological Europe, Central Asia, and Other Regions. Wash-
Foundations of Civil Wars”. The University of Chicago ington, DC: The World Bank. ISBN 978-0-8213-
Press: 25–34. doi:10.1017/S0022381608090026.
6049-1.
[15] Gleditsch, K. S.; Wucherpfennig, J.; Hug, S.; Reigstad,
• Stathis Kalyvas, "'New' and 'Old' Civil Wars: A
K. G. (2011). “Polygyny or Misogyny? Reexamining the
“First Law of Intergroup Conflict"". The Journal of Poli-
Valid Distinction?" World Politics 54, no. 1 (2001):
tics 73: 265. doi:10.1017/S0022381610001003. 99–118.
[16] Hironaka, 2005, p. 28 • David Lake and Donald Rothchild, eds. The Inter-
national Spread of Ethnic Conflict: Fear, Diffusion,
[17] Hironaka, 2005, p. 1 and Escalation (Princeton University Press, 1996).
[18] Hironaka, 2005, pp. 28–29 • Roy Licklider, “The Consequences of Negotiated
Settlements in Civil Wars, 1945–1993,” American
[19] Hironaka, 2005, p. 29
Political Science Review 89, no. 3 (summer 1995):
[20] Hironaka, 2005, p. 30 pp 681–690.
[21] Hironaka, 2005, p. 31 • Andrew Mack, “Civil War: Academic Research and
the Policy Community,” Journal of Peace Research
[22] Hironaka, 2005, p. 1, 4-5 39, no. 5 (2002): pp. 515–525.
[23] Hironaka, 2005, pp. 7 & 23 • David T. Mason and Patrick 3. Fett, “How Civil
[24] Hironaka, 2005, pp. 36 Wars End: A Rational Choice Approach,” Journal
of Conflict Resolution 40, no. 4 (fall 1996): 546-568.
[25] Hironaka, 2005, p. 40
• Patrick M. Regan. Civil Wars and Foreign Powers:
[26] Hironaka, 2005, p. 54 Outside Intervention in Intrastate Conflict (2000) 172
pages
[27] Hironaka, 2005, p. 6
8 External links
• Royal Air Force Doctrine – The Nature of War and
Armed Conflict
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