Mainstreet Research Survey of Voting Intentions in Niagara West

Mainstreet Research Survey of Voting Intentions in Niagara West
About Mainstreet
With 20 years of political experience in all three levels of government, President and CEO
Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on international public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snap-
shots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, and was
the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal
election. Mainstreet also accurately predicted the Miami & New York City Mayoral elections,
and the Alabama special election in 2017. Mainstreet Research is a member of the World
Association for Public Opinion Research and meets international and Canadian publication
standards.
Methodology
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on December 19th-20th
2018 among a sample of 631 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Niagara West. The
survey was conducted using live agents. Respondents were interviews on landlines and
cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent the voting population in Niagara West.
The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.9% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are
higher in each subsample.
Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.
1
As you might have heard, Premier Doug Ford is in the process of repeal-
ing the sex ed curriculum instituted by Kathleen Wynne. The provincial
government has been consulting Ontario parents as to what should re-
place it. Do you support the Ford government’s effort to repeal and re-
place the sex ed curriculum that was put in place by the previous Liberal
government?
9%
46 %
46 %
Response Yes No Not Sure
crosstabbed by age, gender, and children in the household
Gender Age Have Children?

Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Yes No
Yes 45.6% 49% 42.4% 44.4% 53.9% 48.6% 32% 56.3% 39.5%
No 45.7% 44.3% 47.1% 55.6% 38.5% 40.9% 48.8% 40% 49.1%
Not Sure 8.7% 6.7% 10.5% 0% 7.6% 10.5% 19.2% 3.7% 11.5%
Unweighted Frequency 631 296 335 18 78 171 364 99 532
Weighted Frequency 631 305 326 168 151 191 121 229 402
2
crosstabbed by party support
Party
Total PC NDP Liberals Green Other UD
Yes 45.6% 82.9% 4.7% 5% 10.2% 39.6% 43.8%
No 45.7% 9.8% 88.9% 87.7% 81.7% 36% 31.9%
Not Sure 8.7% 7.3% 6.4% 7.4% 8.1% 24.4% 24.3%
Unweighted Frequency 631 278 123 124 36 17 53
Weighted Frequency 631 300 120 115 41 15 40
3
Did you or someone in your household participate in any way in the con-
sultation process for replacing the sex ed curriculum, either by attend-
ing a meeting, by participating in a telephone townhall, or by completing
an online survey?
4%
9%
10 %
77 %
Attended A Meeting In Person Participated In A Telephone Townhall

Response
Participated In An Online Survey Did Not Participate/Can't Remember

Attended A Meeting In Person 3.7% 5.8% 1.8% 5.7% 3.9% 2.9% 1.9% 7.2% 1.7%
Participated In A Telephone Townhall 9.2% 8.8% 9.5% 16.6% 3.9% 8.2% 6.9% 7.2% 10.3%
Participated In An Online Survey 9.8% 8.8% 10.8% 5.5% 14.1% 12.2% 6.6% 15.2% 6.8%
Did Not Participate/Can’t Remember 77.3% 76.7% 78% 72.2% 78.2% 76.6% 84.6% 70.4% 81.3%
4
Party
Attended A Meeting In Person 3.7% 6.3% 0.6% 1.9% 2.8% 0% 0.8%
Participated In A Telephone Townhall 9.2% 3.1% 14.2% 13.6% 31% 7.2% 5.3%
Participated In An Online Survey 9.8% 15.7% 5.9% 4.7% 2.8% 7.2% 0%
Did Not Participate/Can’t Remember 77.3% 74.9% 79.3% 79.7% 63.4% 85.6% 93.9%
5
Which statement comes closer to your views, even if neither is exactly
right?
16 %
44 %
39 %
A man or a woman is determined by the sex they were assigned at birth
Response Someone can be a man or a woman even if that is different from the sex they were assigned at birth
Not Sure

A man or a woman is determined by the sex they were assigned at birth 44.4% 47.5% 41.5% 49.9% 57.6% 40.6% 26.2% 58.4% 36.4%
Someone can be a man or a woman even if that is different from the sex they were assigned at birth 39.3% 38.5% 40.1% 44.6% 32.1% 39.6% 40.5% 32.2% 43.4%
Not Sure 16.3% 14% 18.4% 5.5% 10.2% 19.8% 33.2% 9.4% 20.2%
Party
A man or a woman is determined by the sex they were assigned at birth 44.4% 74.7% 4.8% 11.6% 31.7% 39.6% 45.4%
Someone can be a man or a woman even if that is different from the sex they were assigned at birth 39.3% 13.3% 73.6% 74.2% 45.7% 24.4% 29.9%
Not Sure 16.3% 12% 21.6% 14.2% 22.6% 36% 24.6%
6
The previous sex ed curriculum included lessons that taught “Gender
Identity Theory,” that is, that there are many genders other than “male”
and “female”. Do you agree or disagree with teaching this to children
in Ontario schools?
8%
29 %
37 %
17 %
9%
Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree

Response
Strongly disagree Not Sure

Strongly agree 29% 30.3% 27.7% 50.1% 19.3% 19.9% 26.2% 29.9% 28.5%
Somewhat agree 17.2% 16.3% 18.1% 16.6% 9% 23.3% 18.7% 11% 20.8%
Somewhat disagree 8.7% 5.1% 12.2% 5.5% 8.9% 8.7% 13.2% 9.2% 8.5%
Strongly disagree 36.9% 40.9% 33.2% 27.8% 51.3% 38.8% 28.9% 44.8% 32.5%
Not Sure 8.1% 7.4% 8.8% 0% 11.5% 9.3% 13.1% 5.2% 9.8%
7
Party
Strongly agree 29% 13% 41.2% 60.5% 43.3% 7.5% 15%
Somewhat agree 17.2% 5.5% 34.3% 18.1% 21.7% 19.9% 45.9%
Somewhat disagree 8.7% 9.5% 8.2% 8.8% 2.8% 2.2% 12.8%
Strongly disagree 36.9% 66.3% 10.8% 3% 10.9% 44% 17.2%
Not Sure 8.1% 5.6% 5.5% 9.7% 21.3% 26.4% 9.1%
8
The Ford government has announced that it has halted the Ontario cap-
and-trade carbon tax program. Do you agree or disagree with this deci-
sion?
12 %
40 %
27 %
13 % 9%

Response

Strongly agree 39.9% 49% 31.3% 33.3% 46.4% 45.9% 31.3% 48% 35.2%
Somewhat agree 8.5% 5.4% 11.5% 5.5% 8.9% 9.9% 10.1% 9% 8.2%
Somewhat disagree 12.7% 9.9% 15.3% 16.6% 8.9% 12.8% 11.7% 5.8% 16.6%
Strongly disagree 26.5% 30% 23.3% 33.5% 21.9% 20.5% 32.2% 25.3% 27.2%
Not Sure 12.4% 5.6% 18.7% 11.2% 13.8% 10.9% 14.7% 11.9% 12.7%
9
Party
Strongly agree 39.9% 73.4% 6.6% 10.7% 5.5% 41.7% 6.1%
Somewhat agree 8.5% 7.4% 9% 8.5% 18.2% 14.7% 3.6%
Strongly disagree 26.5% 6.4% 45.6% 52.9% 52.5% 21.7% 18.9%
Not Sure 12.4% 9.9% 18.4% 8.7% 1.6% 14.4% 34%
10
Now that Ontario has no cap and trade policy and no carbon tax, Prime
Minister Justin Trudeau has said that the federal carbon tax program
will now apply to Ontario.
Do you support or oppose Justin Trudeau’s plan to introduce a new

federal carbon tax in Ontario?
9%
31 %
38 %
10 %
12 %

Response
11

Strongly agree 31% 36.4% 26% 33.7% 30.8% 26.8% 34.1% 31.9% 30.5%
Somewhat agree 9.9% 9.5% 10.2% 11.2% 5.1% 11.7% 11.2% 7.5% 11.2%
Somewhat disagree 11.7% 8% 15.1% 22.1% 5.1% 9.3% 9% 7.3% 14.1%
Strongly disagree 38.3% 40.6% 36.3% 21.9% 50.1% 47% 32.9% 44.7% 34.7%
Not Sure 9.1% 5.5% 12.4% 11.2% 8.8% 5.2% 12.8% 8.6% 9.4%
Party
Strongly agree 31% 12.1% 47.8% 57.9% 63.5% 17.2% 17.2%
Somewhat agree 9.9% 5.2% 11.4% 17.2% 22.9% 0% 9.8%
Strongly disagree 38.3% 67.7% 14.7% 3% 5.5% 36.8% 25%
Not Sure 9.1% 3.4% 13.9% 14.2% 7.3% 26.9% 17.4%
12
It is now legal to consume cannabis in Canada. Today, the legal age to
or sell or consume cannabis products is 19 in Ontario, while the Quebec
government has introduced a law to restrict cannabis to those aged 21
or over in that province.

right?
7%
37 %
55 %
The legal age should be 19
Response The legal age should be raised to 21
Not Sure

The legal age should be 19 37.4% 41.7% 33.4% 55.6% 28.4% 35.2% 27% 28.9% 42.3%
The legal age should be raised to 21 55.2% 48.9% 61.2% 38.7% 65.1% 57.8% 61.8% 66.4% 48.9%
Not Sure 7.3% 9.4% 5.4% 5.7% 6.4% 7.1% 11.2% 4.7% 8.8%
13
Party
The legal age should be 19 37.4% 22.1% 56.2% 53.3% 48.6% 37.7% 38.4%
The legal age should be raised to 21 55.2% 68.1% 41.5% 41.1% 43.3% 52.9% 53.4%
Not Sure 7.3% 9.7% 2.3% 5.5% 8.1% 9.4% 8.2%
14
The Government of Ontario recently announced that Ron Taverner will
become the Head of the Ontario Provincial Police . There has been
a controversy with this appointment because Taverner is a personal
friend of Premier Doug Ford, and because, part way through the hir-
ing process, the job description was changed so that Taverner would
become eligible for the job.

right?
19 % 20 %
61 %
Ford should be able to appoint anyone
Response There has been too much controversy and the process should start over
Not Sure
15

Ford should be able to appoint anyone 20.1% 21.8% 18.5% 22.1% 21.8% 20% 15.2% 26.4% 16.5%
There has been too much controversy and the process should start over 60.8% 59.9% 61.8% 55.6% 58.9% 61.4% 69.8% 51.5% 66.2%
Not Sure 19.1% 18.3% 19.8% 22.3% 19.3% 18.6% 15% 22.1% 17.3%
Party
Ford should be able to appoint anyone 20.1% 36.3% 8.9% 4.1% 5.4% 0% 0.9%
There has been too much controversy and the process should start over 60.8% 34.9% 88.4% 84% 90.2% 55.6% 77.7%
Not Sure 19.1% 28.8% 2.7% 11.8% 4.4% 44.4% 21.4%
16
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(all voters)
16 %
2%
6% 46 %
All Voters
14 %
16 %
Progressive Conservatives, Doug Ford NDP, Andrea Horwath
Response Liberals, John Fraser Greens, Mike Schreiner
Another Party Undecided

Progressive Conservatives, Doug Ford 46.1% 52% 40.6% 44.4% 52.6% 48.7% 36.2% 59.5% 38.5%
NDP, Andrea Horwath 15.8% 14.5% 17% 22.3% 11.6% 11.6% 18.6% 12.7% 17.5%
Liberals, John Fraser 13.9% 13% 14.7% 11.2% 12.7% 13.4% 19.8% 12.9% 14.4%
Greens, Mike Schreiner 6.1% 6.1% 6% 5.5% 6.5% 7.6% 3.8% 0.9% 9%
Another Party 1.7% 2.7% 0.8% 0% 1.3% 3.5% 1.7% 0.9% 2.2%
Undecided 16.5% 11.7% 20.9% 16.6% 15.3% 15.1% 19.9% 13.1% 18.4%
17
Party
Progressive Conservatives, Doug Ford 46.1% 97% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
NDP, Andrea Horwath 15.8% 0% 82.8% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Liberals, John Fraser 13.9% 0% 0% 76% 0% 0% 0%
Greens, Mike Schreiner 6.1% 0% 0% 0% 93.8% 0% 0%
Another Party 1.7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 70.6% 0%
Undecided 16.5% 3% 17.2% 24% 6.2% 29.4% 100%
18
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(decided and leaning voters)
7% 3%
20 %
All Voters
51 %
20 %
Progressive Conservatives, Doug Ford NDP, Andrea Horwath
Response Liberals, John Fraser Greens, Mike Schreiner
Another Party

Progressive Conservatives, Doug Ford 50.5% 54.6% 46.8% 47.1% 56.8% 53% 43.6% 62.6% 43.5%
NDP, Andrea Horwath 20.4% 18.1% 22.6% 23.5% 17.5% 18% 23.8% 15.9% 23.1%
Liberals, John Fraser 19.6% 17.7% 21.3% 23.5% 15% 16.1% 25.5% 18% 20.5%
Greens, Mike Schreiner 6.9% 6.3% 7.4% 5.9% 8.1% 8% 4.9% 1.8% 9.9%
Another Party 2.6% 3.3% 1.8% 0% 2.7% 4.9% 2.1% 1.8% 3%
19
Party
Total PC NDP Liberals Green Other
Progressive Conservatives, Doug Ford 50.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
NDP, Andrea Horwath 20.4% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0%
Liberals, John Fraser 19.6% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0%
Greens, Mike Schreiner 6.9% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0%
Another Party 2.6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%
Unweighted Frequency 578 278 123 124 36 17
Weighted Frequency 578 292 118 113 40 15
20
Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Doug Ford?
13 %
1%
40 %
45 %
Favourable Unfavourable
Response Not familiar with Doug Ford Not Sure

Favourable 40.2% 44.5% 36.2% 38.7% 46.2% 42.9% 30.4% 54.9% 31.8%
Unfavourable 44.8% 42.7% 46.9% 50.1% 38.5% 42.5% 49.1% 35.1% 50.4%
Not familiar with Doug Ford 1.5% 1.1% 1.8% 0% 0% 1.8% 4.9% 0% 2.3%
Not Sure 13.5% 11.7% 15.1% 11.2% 15.3% 12.8% 15.6% 10% 15.5%
21
Party
Favourable 40.2% 77.4% 9.5% 2.5% 6.3% 17.3% 5.3%
Unfavourable 44.8% 7.1% 83.4% 92.1% 82.9% 48.3% 35.6%
Not familiar with Doug Ford 1.5% 0.8% 1.2% 2.1% 1.6% 7.5% 3.3%
Not Sure 13.5% 14.8% 5.8% 3.3% 9.2% 26.9% 55.9%
22
Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Andrea Horwath?
20 %
35 %
6%
39 %
Response Not familiar with Andrea Horwath Not Sure

Favourable 35% 35.9% 34.2% 50.3% 16.7% 35% 36.7% 24.8% 40.9%
Unfavourable 39.4% 43.8% 35.2% 27.6% 51.5% 43.4% 34.3% 48.2% 34.3%
Not familiar with Andrea Horwath 5.5% 2.6% 8.3% 5.5% 7.6% 3.5% 6.3% 5% 5.8%
Not Sure 20.1% 17.7% 22.2% 16.6% 24.2% 18.1% 22.7% 22% 18.9%
23
Party
Favourable 35% 9.2% 80.8% 57.3% 56.7% 9.7% 14.2%
Unfavourable 39.4% 70.4% 3.9% 6.8% 22.3% 44% 22.5%
Not familiar with Andrea Horwath 5.5% 2.5% 1.9% 5.9% 8.2% 16.9% 31.1%
Not Sure 20.1% 17.9% 13.4% 30% 12.8% 29.4% 32.2%
24
Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Sam Oosterhoff?
17 %
43 %
11 %
29 %
Response Not familiar with Sam Oosterhoff Not Sure

Favourable 42.5% 40.7% 44.2% 27.6% 44.9% 53.7% 42.7% 48.5% 39.1%
Unfavourable 29.4% 34.8% 24.4% 44.9% 26.9% 23.4% 20.6% 30.3% 29%
Not familiar with Sam Oosterhoff 11.2% 6.7% 15.3% 16.4% 11.5% 4.7% 13.7% 12.4% 10.5%
Not Sure 16.9% 17.8% 16% 11.2% 16.6% 18.2% 23% 8.8% 21.5%
25
Party
Favourable 42.5% 68.3% 22% 14.1% 7% 48.1% 27%
Unfavourable 29.4% 12.5% 54.5% 54.6% 30.9% 17.2% 11.7%
Not familiar with Sam Oosterhoff 11.2% 7% 5.9% 16% 41.3% 12.4% 12.9%
Not Sure 16.9% 12.2% 17.6% 15.3% 20.8% 22.2% 48.4%
26

Mainstreet Research Survey of Voting Intentions in Niagara West

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Mainstreet Research Survey of Voting Intentions in Niagara West

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Mainstreet Research Survey of Voting Intentions in Niagara West

Response Yes No Not Sure

crosstabbed by age, gender, and children in the household

Gender Age Have Children?

Attended A Meeting In Person Participated In A Telephone Townhall

crosstabbed by age, gender, and children in the household

Gender Age Have Children?

A man or a woman is determined by the sex they were assigned at birth

crosstabbed by age, gender, and children in the household

Gender Age Have Children?

crosstabbed by party support

Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree

crosstabbed by age, gender, and children in the household

Gender Age Have Children?

Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree

crosstabbed by age, gender, and children in the household

Gender Age Have Children?

Do you support or oppose Justin Trudeau’s plan to introduce a new

Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree

Gender Age Have Children?

crosstabbed by party support

Which statement comes closer to your views, even if neither is exactly

The legal age should be 19

Response The legal age should be raised to 21

crosstabbed by age, gender, and children in the household

Gender Age Have Children?

Which statement comes closer to your views, even if neither is exactly

Ford should be able to appoint anyone

Gender Age Have Children?

crosstabbed by party support

Progressive Conservatives, Doug Ford NDP, Andrea Horwath

Response Liberals, John Fraser Greens, Mike Schreiner

Another Party Undecided

crosstabbed by age, gender, and children in the household

Gender Age Have Children?

Progressive Conservatives, Doug Ford NDP, Andrea Horwath

Response Liberals, John Fraser Greens, Mike Schreiner

crosstabbed by age, gender, and children in the household

Gender Age Have Children?

Response Not familiar with Doug Ford Not Sure

crosstabbed by age, gender, and children in the household

Gender Age Have Children?

Response Not familiar with Andrea Horwath Not Sure

crosstabbed by age, gender, and children in the household

Gender Age Have Children?

Response Not familiar with Sam Oosterhoff Not Sure

crosstabbed by age, gender, and children in the household

Gender Age Have Children?

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