Durham 20dec2018

Mainstreet Research Survey of Voting Intentions in Durham
About Mainstreet
With 20 years of political experience in all three levels of government, President and CEO
Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on international public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snap-
shots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, and was
the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal
election. Mainstreet also accurately predicted the Miami & New York City Mayoral elections,
and the Alabama special election in 2017. Mainstreet Research is a member of the World
Association for Public Opinion Research and meets international and Canadian publication
standards.
Methodology
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on December 19th-20th
2018 among a sample of 606 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Durham. The survey
was conducted using live agents. Respondents were interviews on landlines and cellular
phones. The survey is intended to represent the voting population in Durham.
The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.99% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error
are higher in each subsample.
Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.
1
As you might have heard, Premier Doug Ford is in the process of repeal-
ing the sex ed curriculum instituted by Kathleen Wynne. The provincial
government has been consulting Ontario parents as to what should re-
place it. Do you support the Ford government’s effort to repeal and re-
place the sex ed curriculum that was put in place by the previous Liberal
government?
12 %
39 %
48 %
Response Yes No Not Sure
crosstabbed by age, gender, and children in the household
Gender Age Have Children?

Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Yes No
Yes 39.1% 46.3% 32.4% 40.8% 37.5% 41.8% 34.5% 41.6% 37.9%
No 48.4% 42.3% 54.2% 53.2% 48.4% 45.6% 46.3% 47% 49.1%
Not Sure 12.5% 11.5% 13.4% 6% 14.1% 12.6% 19.2% 11.4% 13%
Unweighted Frequency 606 280 326 32 79 193 302 110 496
Weighted Frequency 606 293 313 161 145 184 116 195 411
2
crosstabbed by party support
Party
Total PC NDP Liberals Green Other UD
Yes 39.1% 72.7% 20% 7.2% 9.2% 64.3% 17.6%
No 48.4% 17.5% 72.6% 79.2% 69.5% 30.6% 52%
Not Sure 12.5% 9.8% 7.4% 13.6% 21.4% 5% 30.5%
Unweighted Frequency 606 240 142 113 36 9 66
Weighted Frequency 606 243 149 97 48 15 53
3
Did you or someone in your household participate in any way in the con-
sultation process for replacing the sex ed curriculum, either by attend-
ing a meeting, by participating in a telephone townhall, or by completing
an online survey?
1% 10 %
12 %
77 %
Attended A Meeting In Person Participated In A Telephone Townhall

Response
Participated In An Online Survey Did Not Participate/Can't Remember

Attended A Meeting In Person 1.1% 1.2% 1.1% 0% 2.5% 1% 1% 0.9% 1.2%
Participated In A Telephone Townhall 10.5% 10.1% 10.8% 12.6% 14% 8.7% 6% 13.2% 9.2%
Participated In An Online Survey 11.8% 13.8% 10% 15.9% 16% 8.7% 5.9% 19.3% 8.3%
Did Not Participate/Can’t Remember 76.6% 74.9% 78.1% 71.5% 67.5% 81.6% 87.1% 66.6% 81.3%
4
Party
Attended A Meeting In Person 1.1% 1% 1.9% 1% 0% 0% 0.7%
Participated In A Telephone Townhall 10.5% 9.5% 9.6% 11.7% 15.4% 0% 13.9%
Participated In An Online Survey 11.8% 11.6% 15.1% 14.5% 5.6% 11.6% 4.6%
Did Not Participate/Can’t Remember 76.6% 77.9% 73.4% 72.8% 79% 88.4% 80.8%
5
Which statement comes closer to your views, even if neither is exactly
right?
15 %
41 %
44 %
A man or a woman is determined by the sex they were assigned at birth
Response Someone can be a man or a woman even if that is different from the sex they were assigned at birth
Not Sure

A man or a woman is determined by the sex they were assigned at birth 41.1% 51.3% 31.5% 50.1% 43.7% 39.5% 27.5% 51.5% 36.1%
Someone can be a man or a woman even if that is different from the sex they were assigned at birth 44.4% 33.4% 54.6% 43.8% 43.6% 44.3% 46.2% 38.8% 47%
Not Sure 14.6% 15.3% 13.9% 6% 12.7% 16.2% 26.3% 9.6% 16.9%
Party
A man or a woman is determined by the sex they were assigned at birth 41.1% 71.7% 25% 9% 3.3% 64.3% 32.4%
Someone can be a man or a woman even if that is different from the sex they were assigned at birth 44.4% 16.2% 62.7% 71.3% 87.3% 28.2% 38.1%
Not Sure 14.6% 12.1% 12.3% 19.7% 9.5% 7.4% 29.5%
6
The previous sex ed curriculum included lessons that taught “Gender
Identity Theory,” that is, that there are many genders other than “male”
and “female”. Do you agree or disagree with teaching this to children
in Ontario schools?
6%
31 %
31 %
20 %
12 %
Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree

Response
Strongly disagree Not Sure

Strongly agree 30.6% 24.6% 36.2% 38.1% 33.1% 26.6% 23.3% 38.6% 26.8%
Somewhat agree 20.1% 19% 21.2% 21.6% 19.3% 18.8% 21.2% 9.5% 25.2%
Somewhat disagree 12.2% 14% 10.5% 15.6% 7.2% 11.9% 14% 10.8% 12.8%
Strongly disagree 31.1% 38.1% 24.5% 24.6% 35.3% 34.7% 28.9% 35.6% 28.9%
Not Sure 6% 4.3% 7.6% 0% 5.1% 7.9% 12.6% 5.5% 6.3%
7
Party
Strongly agree 30.6% 11.3% 52.7% 43.9% 56.4% 16.6% 12.9%
Somewhat agree 20.1% 13.9% 17.3% 30.8% 29.9% 2.4% 33.3%
Somewhat disagree 12.2% 19% 10.6% 5.6% 4.9% 0% 7.4%
Strongly disagree 31.1% 52.8% 13.4% 11.2% 0.8% 67% 34.9%
Not Sure 6% 3% 5.9% 8.6% 8% 14% 11.4%
8
The Ford government has announced that it has halted the Ontario cap-
and-trade carbon tax program. Do you agree or disagree with this deci-
sion?
15 %
35 %
28 %
9%
13 %

Response

Strongly agree 35.4% 48.2% 23.4% 33.9% 35.9% 38.7% 31.4% 38.2% 34%
Somewhat agree 8.9% 9.6% 8.3% 3% 10% 12.4% 10.4% 5.8% 10.5%
Somewhat disagree 12.8% 9.5% 15.9% 12.6% 14.1% 12.2% 12.6% 9.2% 14.5%
Strongly disagree 27.8% 23.4% 32% 28.2% 28.3% 25% 31.2% 31% 26.3%
Not Sure 15% 9.3% 20.4% 22.2% 11.7% 11.6% 14.5% 15.7% 14.7%
9
Party
Strongly agree 35.4% 65.7% 12.2% 10.5% 4.4% 67% 26.5%
Somewhat agree 8.9% 8.7% 8.2% 6.6% 10.3% 25.8% 10.2%
Somewhat disagree 12.8% 4.3% 22.3% 17.2% 17.2% 2.4% 16.3%
Strongly disagree 27.8% 5.2% 45.5% 55.3% 48.8% 2.4% 19.9%
Not Sure 15% 16% 11.8% 10.5% 19.3% 2.4% 27.2%
10
Now that Ontario has no cap and trade policy and no carbon tax, Prime
Minister Justin Trudeau has said that the federal carbon tax program
will now apply to Ontario.
Do you support or oppose Justin Trudeau’s plan to introduce a new

federal carbon tax in Ontario?
9%
38 %
36 %
7% 10 %

Response
11

Strongly agree 38.2% 36.9% 39.4% 59.8% 34% 24.1% 36.1% 45.1% 35%
Somewhat agree 9.5% 7.6% 11.4% 3% 10.4% 12% 13.7% 9% 9.8%
Somewhat disagree 7.5% 7.4% 7.6% 3% 6.3% 12% 8% 4.4% 8.9%
Strongly disagree 35.8% 43.8% 28.3% 30.9% 36.5% 41.3% 32.9% 31.3% 37.9%
Not Sure 9% 4.3% 13.3% 3.3% 12.9% 10.6% 9.4% 10.2% 8.4%
Party
Strongly agree 38.2% 14.5% 55.7% 66.1% 66.3% 43.8% 19.7%
Somewhat agree 9.5% 2.9% 18% 12.2% 3.7% 16.4% 14.9%
Somewhat disagree 7.5% 8% 6.7% 3.8% 18.9% 2.6% 4.8%
Strongly disagree 35.8% 68.8% 9.2% 8.7% 2.8% 34.8% 39%
Not Sure 9% 5.8% 10.3% 9.1% 8.3% 2.4% 21.7%
12
It is now legal to consume cannabis in Canada. Today, the legal age to
or sell or consume cannabis products is 19 in Ontario, while the Quebec
government has introduced a law to restrict cannabis to those aged 21
or over in that province.

right?
6%
36 %
58 %
The legal age should be 19
Response The legal age should be raised to 21
Not Sure

The legal age should be 19 35.9% 38.8% 33.2% 56.5% 25.2% 32.4% 26.1% 37.3% 35.2%
The legal age should be raised to 21 57.7% 52.4% 62.6% 40.5% 68.5% 60.5% 63.5% 56.9% 58%
Not Sure 6.5% 8.8% 4.3% 3% 6.3% 7.1% 10.5% 5.8% 6.8%
13
Party
The legal age should be 19 35.9% 33.8% 34.6% 41.2% 38.7% 67% 27.8%
The legal age should be raised to 21 57.7% 61.2% 59.5% 52.4% 55.7% 25.6% 56.9%
Not Sure 6.5% 5% 5.9% 6.4% 5.6% 7.4% 15.4%
14
The Government of Ontario recently announced that Ron Taverner will
become the Head of the Ontario Provincial Police . There has been
a controversy with this appointment because Taverner is a personal
friend of Premier Doug Ford, and because, part way through the hir-
ing process, the job description was changed so that Taverner would
become eligible for the job.

right?
17 % 18 %
66 %
Ford should be able to appoint anyone
Response There has been too much controversy and the process should start over
Not Sure
15

Ford should be able to appoint anyone 17.7% 21.7% 14.1% 15.9% 13.6% 22.8% 17.4% 14.5% 19.3%
There has been too much controversy and the process should start over 65.7% 60.5% 70.7% 65.5% 67.3% 63.2% 68.2% 66.1% 65.6%
Not Sure 16.5% 17.8% 15.3% 18.6% 19% 14% 14.4% 19.3% 15.2%
Party
Ford should be able to appoint anyone 17.7% 40.3% 4.7% 1.2% 0% 2.6% 1.4%
There has been too much controversy and the process should start over 65.7% 37.4% 87% 84.1% 94.5% 62.8% 77.3%
Not Sure 16.5% 22.3% 8.3% 14.7% 5.5% 34.6% 21.2%
16
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(all voters)
19 %
2% 39 %
6% All Voters
12 %
22 %
Progressive Conservatives, Doug Ford NDP, Andrea Horwath
Response Liberals, John Fraser Greens, Mike Schreiner
Another Party Undecided

Progressive Conservatives, Doug Ford 38.5% 46.6% 31% 40.5% 35.1% 41.9% 34.7% 42.9% 36.5%
NDP, Andrea Horwath 21.8% 15.6% 27.6% 22.8% 22.8% 22.4% 18.2% 19.7% 22.8%
Liberals, John Fraser 11.6% 9% 14.1% 3% 11.6% 15.3% 17.9% 10.3% 12.3%
Greens, Mike Schreiner 6.5% 6.4% 6.6% 12.3% 5.3% 2.6% 6.1% 5.7% 6.9%
Another Party 2.4% 4.6% 0.3% 6% 2.4% 0% 1% 3.4% 1.9%
Undecided 19.2% 17.8% 20.5% 15.3% 22.9% 17.8% 22.1% 18% 19.7%
17
Party
Progressive Conservatives, Doug Ford 38.5% 96% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
NDP, Andrea Horwath 21.8% 0% 88.6% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Liberals, John Fraser 11.6% 0% 0% 72.5% 0% 0% 0%
Greens, Mike Schreiner 6.5% 0% 0% 0% 81.1% 0% 0%
Another Party 2.4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 95.2% 0%
Undecided 19.2% 4% 11.4% 27.5% 18.9% 4.8% 100%
18
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(decided and leaning voters)
9% 3%
18 %
44 %
All Voters
27 %
Progressive Conservatives, Doug Ford NDP, Andrea Horwath
Response Liberals, John Fraser Greens, Mike Schreiner
Another Party

Progressive Conservatives, Doug Ford 44.1% 52.6% 36.2% 40.5% 45.8% 47.4% 41.7% 48.6% 41.9%
NDP, Andrea Horwath 27% 18.9% 34.5% 26.1% 26.8% 29.4% 24.5% 24.6% 28.1%
Liberals, John Fraser 17.7% 15.2% 20.1% 12% 16.7% 19.2% 24.6% 16.2% 18.5%
Greens, Mike Schreiner 8.6% 8.2% 8.9% 15.3% 7.8% 4% 7.3% 7.2% 9.3%
Another Party 2.6% 5.1% 0.3% 6% 2.8% 0% 1.9% 3.4% 2.2%
19
Party
Total PC NDP Liberals Green Other
Progressive Conservatives, Doug Ford 44.1% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
NDP, Andrea Horwath 27% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0%
Liberals, John Fraser 17.7% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0%
Greens, Mike Schreiner 8.6% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0%
Another Party 2.6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%
Unweighted Frequency 540 240 142 113 36 9
Weighted Frequency 540 238 146 96 46 14
20
Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Doug Ford?
16 %
1% 35 %
48 %
Favourable Unfavourable
Response Not familiar with Doug Ford Not Sure

Favourable 34.7% 41% 28.9% 34.8% 35.1% 37.6% 29.7% 37.6% 33.4%
Unfavourable 47.5% 41.1% 53.6% 53.2% 40.7% 45.2% 52% 46.2% 48.2%
Not familiar with Doug Ford 1.3% 1.7% 1% 0% 1.2% 1.5% 3% 1.1% 1.4%
Not Sure 16.4% 16.2% 16.6% 12% 23% 15.7% 15.3% 15.1% 17%
21
Party
Favourable 34.7% 77.8% 11.4% 0.4% 0% 2.6% 6.5%
Unfavourable 47.5% 6.6% 74.7% 83.3% 83.9% 89.9% 48.2%
Not familiar with Doug Ford 1.3% 2% 0.6% 0.4% 0.7% 0% 2.9%
Not Sure 16.4% 13.6% 13.3% 16% 15.3% 7.4% 42.3%
22
Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Andrea Horwath?
21 %
36 %
5%
37 %
Response Not familiar with Andrea Horwath Not Sure

Favourable 36% 31.4% 40.3% 37.8% 35.7% 35.9% 34.3% 38.2% 35%
Unfavourable 37.2% 44% 30.9% 43.3% 27.7% 40.7% 35.2% 37.7% 37%
Not familiar with Andrea Horwath 5.3% 3% 7.5% 3.3% 7.8% 3.6% 7.6% 4.6% 5.6%
Not Sure 21.4% 21.6% 21.2% 15.6% 28.8% 19.8% 22.9% 19.5% 22.3%
23
Party
Favourable 36% 12.8% 80.4% 35.7% 47.6% 11.6% 15.3%
Unfavourable 37.2% 67.7% 6% 20.9% 20.7% 78.3% 18.5%
Not familiar with Andrea Horwath 5.3% 6.6% 0.6% 5.8% 5.5% 5.3% 11.4%
Not Sure 21.4% 12.9% 13.1% 37.6% 26.2% 4.8% 54.9%
24
Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Lindsey Park?
18 %
30 %
21 %
31 %
Response Not familiar with Lindsey Park Not Sure

Favourable 18.5% 22% 15.1% 24.6% 16.6% 17.4% 13.8% 25.5% 15.1%
Unfavourable 20.6% 25.5% 16% 34.2% 17.5% 14.9% 14.3% 23.4% 19.2%
Not familiar with Lindsey Park 31.4% 26.1% 36.3% 28.5% 30.6% 28.5% 41% 25% 34.5%
Not Sure 29.6% 26.4% 32.6% 12.6% 35.3% 39.1% 30.9% 26.1% 31.2%
25
Party
Favourable 18.5% 33.4% 8.5% 13.2% 4% 0% 6%
Unfavourable 20.6% 18.3% 24.1% 23.7% 17.9% 64.3% 5%
Not familiar with Lindsey Park 31.4% 27.8% 33.6% 29.6% 44.6% 5.3% 40.4%
Not Sure 29.6% 20.5% 33.8% 33.4% 33.5% 30.4% 48.5%
26

Durham 20dec2018

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Durham 20dec2018

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Droits d'auteur :

Mainstreet Research Survey of Voting Intentions in Durham

Response Yes No Not Sure

crosstabbed by age, gender, and children in the household

Gender Age Have Children?

Attended A Meeting In Person Participated In A Telephone Townhall

crosstabbed by age, gender, and children in the household

Gender Age Have Children?

A man or a woman is determined by the sex they were assigned at birth

crosstabbed by age, gender, and children in the household

Gender Age Have Children?

crosstabbed by party support

Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree

crosstabbed by age, gender, and children in the household

Gender Age Have Children?

Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree

crosstabbed by age, gender, and children in the household

Gender Age Have Children?

Do you support or oppose Justin Trudeau’s plan to introduce a new

Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree

Gender Age Have Children?

crosstabbed by party support

Which statement comes closer to your views, even if neither is exactly

The legal age should be 19

Response The legal age should be raised to 21

crosstabbed by age, gender, and children in the household

Gender Age Have Children?

Which statement comes closer to your views, even if neither is exactly

Ford should be able to appoint anyone

Gender Age Have Children?

crosstabbed by party support

Progressive Conservatives, Doug Ford NDP, Andrea Horwath

Response Liberals, John Fraser Greens, Mike Schreiner

Another Party Undecided

crosstabbed by age, gender, and children in the household

Gender Age Have Children?

Progressive Conservatives, Doug Ford NDP, Andrea Horwath

Response Liberals, John Fraser Greens, Mike Schreiner

crosstabbed by age, gender, and children in the household

Gender Age Have Children?

Response Not familiar with Doug Ford Not Sure

crosstabbed by age, gender, and children in the household

Gender Age Have Children?

Response Not familiar with Andrea Horwath Not Sure

crosstabbed by age, gender, and children in the household

Gender Age Have Children?

Response Not familiar with Lindsey Park Not Sure

crosstabbed by age, gender, and children in the household

Gender Age Have Children?

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