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9th International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems

KTH, Stockholm, Sweden – June 11-15, 2006

Decision Trees Applied to Spanish Power


Systems Applications
E. Lobato, A. Ugedo, L. Rouco, Member IEEE, F.M. Echavarren

probability. This clustering technique has the advantage of


Abstract— Decision trees are useful data mining tools designed little complexity, but it is not able to discern the degree of
to face classification problems, dividing the output variable space expectation for each scenario, giving the same probability to
by the evaluation of partition rules developed from explanatory all of them.
variables. The output variable is classified by the explanatory
Time series and dynamic regression are linear techniques
variables rules that give the maximum quality to the decision tree.
This paper provides a comprehensive review of the different that are appropriate to forecast in the short term time scope, by
forecasting techniques available pointing their advantages and means of identifying patterns found in the temporal evolution
disadvantages. In addition, it describes three different of the magnitude under study and/or carrying out a regression
applications developed in the Spanish electricity market context with explanatory variables. In the long term, the identified
faced with success employing decision trees, pointing the great patterns may change, so it is frequent the use of trends or the
versatility of decision trees and their adequacy to be applied to
very diverse different real applications. Firstly, decision trees
construction of scenarios that consider future possibilities,
have been used to predict stochastic residual demand curves in instead of using linear models [12]. Although time series and
the Spanish electricity market. Secondly, a methodology based on dynamic regression are widely used techniques that perform
decision trees has been developed to estimate the daily load with enough accuracy for some purposes, they have some
pattern of units, which have not been cleared in the daily energy limitations. On one hand, they only model linear relationships;
market and can be connected to alleviate voltage constraints. in this way they are not appropriate for problems that are
Finally, decisions trees have also been applied to predict the
values of reactors and capacitors of the Spanish power system in a
complex or have non-linear characteristics. On the other hand,
short-term time scope (24 and 36 hours ahead). hypothesis of white noise is needed to develop this type of
models and to obtain prediction intervals or probabilities.
Index Terms—competitive electricity market, strategic A neural network is an adaptable model, inspirited in the
bidding, decision trees, power system operation, security human brain structure, originally developed to target
assessment. classification problems, but nowadays its use within regression
problems is worldwide recognized with enormous success
I. INTRODUCTION [13]. With regard to neural networks performance, they are

D ifferent forecasting techniques can be applied to


forecast a magnitude of interest. The most recent
approaches have been based on a number of methods including
accurate in a wide range of complex applications, being able to
capture non-linear singularities. Regardless, neural networks
have disadvantages with respect to other automatic learning
clustering techniques [1,2], time series [3,4] and dynamic methods, mainly due to its black box characteristic; given an
regression techniques [5], neural network approaches [6,7], input vector of explanatory variables, is not always easy to
input-output hidden Markov models (IOHMM) [8,9] and interpret the output.
decision trees approaches [10,11]. Other forecasting methodologies have been proposed to
Clustering techniques can be applied to forecast a specific address switching processes, such as speech recognition or
magnitude by a process that consists in two steps. The first handwriting. Namely, Hidden Markov Models suit specially
step lies on classifying the possible patterns of the magnitude well in human behavior modeling or processes in which human
under study, using clustering algorithms such as the neural gas. actions are involved. An extension of the Hidden Markov
The second step consists of predicting the pattern of the Models are Input/Output Markov Models (IOHMMs) , which
variable of interest that is expected to occur in a certain period have been successfully applied to different fields, such as
of time. The forecast is carried out by clustering together the grammatical inference, financial return series or forecasting
past values of the explanatory variables, objective variable and electricity prices. The advantage of this type of Markov Model
the future estimated value of the explanatory variables. All the for the electricity market context, is the possibility of
objective variable values contained in the same cluster of the representing the switching nature related to the changes in
estimated explanatory variables are assigned the same competitors’ strategies. On the contrary, interpretation of
results is difficult and the theoretical basis behind these models
and their implementation can be considered rather complex.
E. Lobato (e-mail: Enrique.Lobato@iit.upco.es), A. Ugedo, F. M.
Echavarren, L. Rouco are with the School of Engineering of Universidad
Finally, decision trees are designed to face classification
Pontificia Comillas, C/Alberto Aguilera, 23, 28015 Madrid, Spain. problems, dividing the output variable space by the evaluation

© Copyright KTH 2006


9th International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems
KTH, Stockholm, Sweden – June 11-15, 2006

of partition rules developed from explanatory variables. The computed. This way of estimating probabilities does not
output variable is classified by the explanatory variables rules requires the assumption of specific probability distributions for
that gives the maximum quality to the decision tree. This the variables, which represents an important advantage for this
particular model has been applied in a creative way to different methodology.
purposes with success. It has been successfully employed in a Pattern 1
ExP1
number of steady state security assessment applications ρ P1 = Pattern 2
[10,14-19], financial applications [20] or electricity market
∑ Ex p
p
Pattern 3
applications [21-23]. The main advantage of decision trees is
Pattern 4
the easy interpretability of the results and the supply of
Pattern 5
probability values without assuming normal distributions. ExP1
This paper summarizes three different applications, Pattern 6
developed in the Spanish electricity market context, that the ∑ Ex
p
p Pattern 7
authors have faced successfully using decision trees two Pattern 8
different issues with encouraging results. The objective of the Fig 1: Structure of a decision tree node and computation of each pattern
paper is pointing the great versatility of decision trees and their probability.
adequacy to be applied to very diverse different real To illustrate the use of a decision tree in an estimation
applications, being very interpretable and suitable for process, a virtual simplified decision tree (Fig 2) composed of
probabilistic approaches. In the first application, decision trees seven nodes, has been built to forecast an objective variable
have been used to predict stochastic residual demand curves in that can take 8 different patterns.
Pattern 1
the Spanish electricity market. Secondly, a methodology based Pattern 2

on decision trees to estimate the daily load pattern of units. Pattern 3

Pattern 4
Finally, decisions trees have also been applied to predict the Pattern 5

values of reactors and capacitors of the Spanish power system Pattern 6


Pattern 7
in a short-term time scope (24 and 36 hours ahead). More Pattern 8
DGI < 5
detailed descriptions and results of each application can be
found in [22] (residual demands), [23] (daily load pattern of
units) and [24] (shunt reactor/capacitor forecasting).
The paper has been organized as follows. Section II reviews DGI < 2 LineStatus > 7

the structure of decision trees and practical details of the


training process. Section III is devoted to the residual demand
curve estimation process. Section IV describes the daily load
pattern estimation. Shunt reactors/capacitors are dealed in Fig 2: Decision tree to estimate the probability of each objective variable
section V. Finally, conclusions are provided in Section VI. pattern according to separation rules.

II. REVIEW OF DECISION TREES The first node contains all the learning set. The first
separation is done using the value of DGI explanatory
A decision tree is a classification data-mining tool aimed to
variable. Patterns of the objective variable 2, 3, 6, 7 and 8 go
extract useful information contained in large data sets and so it
to the left branch. The rest of the patterns are classified in the
can be used to help in decision-making processes. A decision
right one. Both left and right branches have one or more
tree is made up of a set of nodes that classify the past
separation rules. The left branch separates using only the DGI
realizations of an objective variable. Each classification is
explanatory variable. The right branch uses in addition the
achieved by separation rules according to the numerical or
value of the line status explanatory variable. As can be seen in
categorical values of the explanatory variables. The
Fig 2, the patterns are successively classified until a final node
classification rules of each node are derived from a
is reached. The final nodes of the tree usually contain more
mathematical process that minimizes the impurity of the
than one possible pattern. It is not convenient to force the tree
resulting nodes, using the available learning set. In this way,
to expand until all final nodes are pure (that is, containing a
by evaluating the separation rules using the numerical or
single pattern), because the decision tree complexity highly
categorical values of the explanatory variables a final node is
increases with respect to the information provided by the
reached. In a final node, no more separation rules are applied.
learning set causing an over-fitted tree. Conversely, if the
The final nodes can be used to estimate the probability of each
number of nodes of the tree is very poor, the tree results over-
pattern. If the node depicted in Fig 1 is the reached final node,
smoothed: the model is not complex enough to capture the
pattern P probability is computed as the division of the
basic information provided in the learning set. Over-fitting and
examples or past realizations of the pattern P contained in the
over-smoothing affect the capability of the decision tree for
node ( ExP ) by the total number of examples contained in the
predicting accurate values of new data not used to train the
node ( ∑ Ex p ). Fig 1 shows how the first pattern probability is tree. Real applications decision trees usually contain between
p
50 and 100 nodes.

© Copyright KTH 2006


9th International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems
KTH, Stockholm, Sweden – June 11-15, 2006

When training a decision tree (that is, the construction of each curve must be sampled at the same energy vector
the separation rules), a portion of the total available data must ( q1 ,...,qn ) , in order to perform mathematical computations
be saved to assess the capability of generalization of the
between curves, or to classify them.
decision tree. The saved data is referred as the test data set,
while the portion of the total available data used to build the Price
tree is referred as the learning set. Practical figures of real
decision tree applications are to save 25% of the initial p 1i
available data to form the test set, and 75% of the total data to p ik
represent the learning set. A similar value of the efficiency
index of the tree applied to the learning data set (used to build
the tree) and the efficiency index of the tree applied to the test p in
data set (used to assess the capability of generalization of the
tree) represents a valuable measure to guarantee that the tree is
neither over-fitted nor over-smoothed. These efficiency
indexes reveal a good forecasting ability of the decision tree, q1 qk qn
at least in the short term where the explanatory factors do not Amount of energy
change. Once the tree has been built, if a significant reduction Fig 3: Sampling of the RDC at a set of n equally spaced values of energy
of the initial tree efficiency when applied with new data is
observed, new explanatory factors or market conditions may
B. Description of the methodology
need to be considered and a new analysis must be done to
update the decision tree. Fig 4 depicts the methodology for estimating the RDC
patterns , which comprises five steps.
III. RESIDUAL DEMAND CURVE ESTIMATION
Correlations study
A. Motivation y
Initial selection of variables.
The electricity industry has experienced a process of Study of the correlations
deregulation in an increasing number of countries. Within this of the explanatory variables.

deregulated framework, strategic bidding procedures must be x1


developed by a generating firm in order to maximize its total Factor Analysis
expected profit.
Depending on the number and size of the market Variables analysis.
Explanatory variables
participants, a competitive market may behave as a monopoly, reduction.
oligopoly or a perfect competitive market. Nowadays many
electricity markets behave like oligopolies. Therefore, the
Clustering
production supplied to the market by an agent may affect the
clearing price. According to the theory of supply function Residual demand curves
classification.
equilibrium [25], the residual demand curve (RDC) can be Patterns of behaviour
used to represent the influence of an agent’s production supply are obtained.

in the clearing price of the market, and therefore, in its


expected profit. The RDC of an agent is obtained subtracting Decision tree
to the total demand curve, the added supply curve of the x1 < X 1 ?
A decision tree is built, in
remaining competitors. However, due to the uncertainty in the order to obtain the probability
market conditions and the strategic behavior of the of each RDC pattern. x2 < X 2 ?

competitors, residual demand curves are not known.


Therefore, their patterns, together with their associated Model
probability need to be estimated to represent the market power Linear regresion of RDC patterns
within a stochastic strategic bidding procedure [26]. Income
Different scenarios of
residual demand (patterns)
A generation bid consists on a set of non-decreasing blocks function - probability (decision tree).
of energy-price. In the same way, demand bid curves are
formed by non-increasing blocks of energy-price. Hence, the Fig 4: Proposed methodology for estimating residual demand curves
RDC of an agent results in a non-increasing set of energy-price
blocks for each hour. A useful representation consists on Firstly, a set of possible explanatory variables of the RDC
sampling the i RDC at a vector of n equally spaced values of behaviour is selected. The initial selection of explanatory
energy ( q1 ,...,qn ) , obtaining the corresponding vector of variables is based on the knowledge and experience of the
market performance. With the selected variables a correlation
prices ( p1i ,..., pni ) , as depicted in Fig 3. It should be noted that study is performed.

© Copyright KTH 2006


9th International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems
KTH, Stockholm, Sweden – June 11-15, 2006

Afterwards, a factor analysis of the set of explanatory B. Description of the methodology


variables is carried out. The factorial analysis is a statistical Fig 5 provides an overview of the methodology for
technique that reduces the number of explanatory variables, estimating the daily load pattern of a unit located in an
excluding the non-significant ones. The factor analysis will importing area which is involved in a congestion management
select the minor number of factors (each factor is a linear procedure. The process comprises three steps.
combination of the initial explanatory variables) that explain The first step consists on collecting and pre-processing the
most of the data variability. data corresponding to the explanatory variables (demand-
Then, the set of RDC data is classified through clustering generation imbalance and line unavailability of the electrical
techniques obtaining a finite number of significant patterns area of the unit) and the objective variable (daily load profile
that group similar behaviours of RDC. of a particular generating unit).
The next step builds a decision tree that explains the
patterns of the residual demand curves attending to the values Pre - processing
of the factors computed in the factor analysis. Finally, taking 24 hour generation-demand imbalance curves formation
Availability line curves formation.
as input the estimations of the explanatory factors, the decision
tree is applied to obtain the probability of each RDC pattern. A
linear regression of the RDC patterns are computed to feed the
stochastic mixed-linear optimization model formulated in [26].

IV. DAILY LOAD PATTERN ESTIMATION 0 24

A. Motivation Clustering
Power system constraints are addressed in Spain by
Clasification of each explanatory variable curves.
increasing and decreasing the generation of connected units, Clasification of the daily load curves (objective variable).
Patterns are obtained for each cluster.
and by connecting off-line ones, based on the generation bids
submitted by the generating agents into the market [27-30]. A
generator offer consists of a set of power-price blocks for each
hour of the following day. A minimum income complex
condition is also submitted in the offer. This condition consists 0 24
of a fixed income term and a variable income term. The fixed
term internalises the start up cost of the generating unit.
Decision tree
Voltage violations are more frequent than overloads in the
Spanish system, due to the lack of reactive power in the areas A decision tree is built in order to obtain the probability of each
daily load pattern.
where they occur and the existence of a big generation
imbalance between exporting and importing areas. The
generation demand imbalance of an electrical area is computed x1 < X 1 ?
subtracting to the total area demand the total area generation,
and thus, it indicates the magnitude of the energy transport x2 < X 2 ?

entering the area from the rest of the system. Voltage


constraints are solved by connecting a set of off-line
generators, and reducing an equal amount of power in the most Fig 5: Methodology of daily load pattern estimation with decision trees
expensive connected ones. The new connected generators
In the second step clustering techniques are applied to
provide reactive support in the importing areas and also inject
obtain a finite number of significant daily patterns that group
active power in the system, which reduces the power transfers
similar behaviors of both unit daily load profile and demand-
between exporting and importing areas.
generation imbalance profile of the zone.
Spanish regulation imposes that generators that increase
The final step builds a decision tree that explains the daily
their output in the congestion management procedure are paid
load patterns of the unit attending to the daily demand-
at their offer price (as detailed in the following section). In this
generation imbalance patterns obtained in the clustering step,
context, the annually income that a unit located in an area
and the daily status of the transmission lines that feed the
where voltage constraints are frequent, is highly dependent on
electrical area.
the solution of power system constraints by the System
Operator. Thus, for a market participant it is necessary to
V. SHUNT DEVICES ESTIMATION
predict when its generating units are connected, in order to
prepare the annual budget and/or decide the time and location A. Motivation
of new plant investments.
In real time operation, the system operator of a power
system needs to check the power system variables are within
their limits not only in normal operating condition, but also

© Copyright KTH 2006


9th International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems
KTH, Stockholm, Sweden – June 11-15, 2006

when any credible contingency occurs. This verification data are collected together and a power system scenario is built
includes running a number of static security assessment tools and converged.
that could be very time consuming. In this context, the It should be noted that the objective of the forecasting tool
necessity of forecasting power system scenarios for the is not the predictions of individual shunt device values, rather
following hourly scenarios emerges, with two main objectives: the main interest lays on the forecasting the overall of power
(a) to foresee potential network problems in normal operating system scenarios. The quality of the overall forecasting tool
condition or under the occurrence of contingencies, and (b) to can be measured by comparing the predicted scenarios with
anticipate preventive or corrective measures for selected the scenarios effectively provided by the state estimator of the
contingencies in order to comply with the N-1 or N-2 security energy management system. For this purpose, two comparison
criteria. A convenient time scope for forecasting future indexes have been defined: the branch flow quality index and
network scenarios may vary between several hours and few the bus voltage quality index. A very challenging research is
days, depending on different factors such as the complexity of being focused in detecting which of the different forecasted
the network (number of nodes, branches and generators), time power system data is responsible for the main inaccuracies
consumption of the available security assessment tools, risk yielded by the quality indexes and analyzing their impact in
aversion sensitivity of the system operator that is on charge of running the security assessment tools.
managing the transmission system or the accuracy accepted of
the predictions. VI. CONCLUSIONS
In order to anticipate the future state of the power system This paper has proved the great versatility of decision trees
different power system data must be forecasted: network showing their adequacy to be applied to very diverse different
topology, active and reactive power loads, generation of each probabilistic real applications. The main advantage of decision
generating unit, wind power prediction, and the position of trees is the easy interpretability of the results and the supply of
voltage control resources (which include the generator probability values without assuming normal distributions.
voltages, transformer ratios and shunt devices). Network Decision trees have been used to predict stochastic residual
topology is provided by the maintenance scheduling of the demand curves in the Spanish electricity market, to estimate
elements of the transmission system performed by the system the daily load pattern of units and to predict the values of
operator; active and reactive power loads are easily predicted reactors and capacitors of the Spanish power system in a short-
using the different geographical temperatures; generation is term time scope. In addition, the paper has provided a
provided from the market clearing of the units and wind power comprehensive a review of the different forecasting techniques
prediction and generation voltages is obtained by internal available pointing their advantages and disadvantages.
models using time series.
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© Copyright KTH 2006


9th International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems
KTH, Stockholm, Sweden – June 11-15, 2006

[14] L. Wehenkel, I. Houben, M. Pavella, L. Riverin and G. Versailles VIII. BIOGRAPHIES


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Systems and Power AIESP 2006 ASP, Madeira, February 2006. Comillas in 2001. Since June 2001, he is a Research
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68, Nº 3, pp. 185-192, March 2004.

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