YEAR $ MN FIRST SECOND THIRD

2000 1.99 ORDER ORDER ORDER

2001 2.29 1.99
2002 2.38 2.29 1.99
2003 2.58 2.38 2.29 1.99
2004 2.49 2.58 2.38 2.29
2005 2.63 2.49 2.58 2.38
2006 2.83 2.63 2.49 2.58
2007 2.92 2.83 2.63 2.49
2008 3.13 2.92 2.83 2.63
2009 3.26 3.13 2.92 2.83
2010 3.27 3.26 3.13 2.92
3.27 3.26 3.13
3.27 3.26
3.27
2001 2.29 1.99 AR (1) MODEL SUMMARY OUTPUT
2002 2.38 2.29
2003 2.58 2.38 Regression Statistics
2004 2.49 2.58 Multiple R 0.959660708
2005 2.63 2.49 R Square 0.9209486745
2006 2.83 2.63 Adjusted R Square 0.9110672588
2007 2.92 2.83 Standard Error 0.1071439849
2008 3.13 2.92 Observations 10
2009 3.26 3.13
2010 3.27 3.26 ANOVA
df
Regression 1
Residual 8
Total 9

Coefficients
Intercept 0.4419272225
X Variable 1 0.8815368972
 SS MS F Significance F
1.0699213321 1.0699213321 93.2000741 1.103345E-05
0.0918386679 0.0114798335
1.16176

Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%

0.2443398685 1.8086578551 0.10811235 -0.121521524 1.00537597
0.0913129484 9.6540185471 1.10335E-05 0.6709688608 1.09210493
2002 2.38 2.29 1.99 SUMMARY OUTPUT
2003 2.58 2.38 2.29
2004 2.49 2.58 2.38 Regression Statistics
2005 2.63 2.49 2.58 Multiple R 0.9616932349
2006 2.83 2.63 2.49 R Square 0.9248538781
2007 2.92 2.83 2.63 Adjusted R Square 0.8998051708
2008 3.13 2.92 2.83 Standard Error 0.1060013842
2009 3.26 3.13 2.92 Observations 9
2010 3.27 3.26 3.13
ANOVA
df
Regression 2
Residual 6
Total 8

Coefficients
Intercept 0.2537903581
X Variable 1 0.6502759037
X Variable 2 0.3127204982
 SS MS F Significance F
0.8297377948 0.4148689 36.9222199 0.0004243456
0.0674177607 0.01123629
0.8971555556

Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%

0.3095670691 0.8198235 0.44365683 -0.50369297 1.01127369
0.3562860069 1.8251514 0.11777673 -0.221524547 1.52207635
0.342990865 0.91174585 0.39705461 -0.526547913 1.15198891
 2003 2.58 2.38 2.29 1.99 SUMMARY OUTPUT
2004 2.49 2.58 2.38 2.29
2005 2.63 2.49 2.58 2.38 Regression Statistics
2006 2.83 2.63 2.49 2.58 Multiple R 0.949314041
2007 2.92 2.83 2.63 2.49 R Square 0.9011971485
2008 3.13 2.92 2.83 2.63 Adjusted R Square 0.8270950099
2009 3.26 3.13 2.92 2.83 Standard Error 0.1283648581
2010 3.27 3.26 3.13 2.92 Observations 8

AR (3) NOT APPROPRIATE ALPHA 0.05 ANOVA

SLOPE OF THE THIRD ORDER AR IS ZERO UNDER NULL df
ALTERNATIVE: DIFFERENT FROM ZERO Regression 3
p value is 0.821 > 0.05 Residual 4
WE DO NOT REJECT NULL Total 7

Coefficients
Intercept 0.2132674238
X Variable 1 0.5509990165
X Variable 2 0.3271647232
X Variable 3 0.1098166134
 SS MS F Significance F
0.6011773528 0.2003924509 12.161553843 0.0176893023
0.0659101472 0.0164775368
0.6670875

Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%

0.4552600207 0.4684519045 0.6638497333 -1.0507370323 1.4772718798
0.5457667156 1.0095870649 0.3698047038 -0.9642923094 2.0662903425
0.5841744426 0.5600462796 0.605327459 -1.2947635484 1.9490929948
0.4564520361 0.2405874105 0.821702785 -1.1574974079 1.3771306347