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Analyst: Mr. Aitzaz Ahmad


Cell # +92-300-8822884
(Call timings: 10am-12pm, excluding Sundays)
Email: maitzaz424@hotmail.com

2018 General Elections of Pakistan: Predictions & Outcome


Political analysis; a deep & brief insight

25th July, 2018 is scheduled to be the polling day for General elections in Pakistan.
2nd smooth transition of elected Government, after completing the 5 year term, post
2013 elections, is yet to happen. Questions, this Analysis Paper will address, are:

• Which political party will emerge with highest number of seats?


• How many seats will each party manage to win?
• Will it be single party to form the government or a coalition among different
parties?
• How important are the independent candidates from different
constituencies?
• Will the new Government manage to complete its five year term?

Distributions of National Assembly seats are shown in the following pie chart.

National Assembly Seats (272)


FATA (12) Islamabad (3)

Balochistan (16)

Khyber Pakhtun
(39)
Punjab (141)

Sindh (61)

Three main stakeholder parties for 2018 elections are: Pakistan Tehreek e Insaf (PTI),
Pakistan Muslim League Noon (PML -N), Pakistan Peoples Party Parliamentarian
(PPP). Real contest will be among PTI and PML N to grab the chunk of maximum
seats from Punjab, having 141 seats out of total 272 seats of Pakistan.

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Summary, Analysis & Political predictions:


• Pakistan Tehreek e Insaf will emerge as single largest party with around 107
seats. It will stretch upto 120 seats if Ex-Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif doesn’t come
back to Pakistan before the polling day of 25 th July, as it will severely de-moralize his
party workers and sway many voters.
• Pakistan Tehreek e Insaf will manage to form a Federal coalition Government
by allying with PML Q, Awami Muslim League, Pak Sarzameen Party, Jamaat e Islami,
Balochistan National Party, Balochistan Awami Party and some independent
candidates from Balochistan and Sindh. By these small ally parties, Pakistan Tehreek e
Insaf will manage to show strength of 170 seats, required to form the Federal
Government.
• It will be difficult for Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz & Peoples party to form a
coalition Government as they did in 2008 elections, this time due to less number of
seats to be secured by them.
• Contrary to popular belief these days in Pakistan, “Jeep” allotted independent
candidates from constituencies all over Pakistan will not be able to secure enough
seats to make or break a Government. Voters are likely to vote for Party rather than
the independent candidates due to increased awareness.
• Pakistan Tehreek e Insaf lead coalition Government will manage to complete
its tenure despite some ups and downs due to demands of its coalition partners.

This brief table (on next page) is produce of deep analysis of 272 constituencies of
Pakistan. Thorough breakdown of mainstream political parties from constituencies is
provided. Factors considered to make predictions in respective constituencies are:
party position, candidates, perceptions, available surveys, past performances,
instincts etc. It is made sure that predictions be made in a neutral careful manner
without favoritism. Kindly consult Annexure on page # 5,6 before reading this table.

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Predictions Table
Province Division Number Party names & Predictions for their win from constituencies
/Territory (# of Cities) of seats
PTI PML-N PPP MQM PSP JI JUI (F) PMLQ BNP BAP Independents
Punjab /Other parties
Rawalpindi 13 6 6 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1
Gujranwala 20 11 8 --- --- --- --- --- 1 --- --- ---
Sargodha 11 6 5 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
Faisalabad 18 8 10 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
Lahore 24 12 12 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
Sahiwal 9 4 5 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
Multan 16 10 6 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
Bahawalpur 15 7 7 1 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
DG Khan 15 7 7 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1

Sindh
Larkana 8 --- --- 5 1 1 --- --- --- --- --- 1
Sukkur 7 --- --- 6 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1
Sh. benazir 7 --- --- 4 1 1 --- --- --- --- --- 1
Hyderabad 13 --- --- 8 3 --- --- --- --- --- --- 2
Mirpurkhas 5 --- --- 4 1 --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
Karachi 21 2 --- 9 6 4 --- --- --- --- --- ---

Balochistan
Quetta 10 1 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1 8
Rest 6 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 6

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Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
PTI PML-N PPP MQM PSP JI JUI (F) PMLQ BNP BAP Others
Malakand 10 7 --- --- --- --- 1 1 --- --- --- 1
Hazara 8 5 --- --- --- --- 2 --- --- --- --- ---
Mardan 5 4 --- --- --- --- 1 --- --- --- --- ---
Peshawar 9 5 --- --- --- --- 1 1 --- --- --- 2
Kohat 3 2 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1
Bannu 2 1 --- --- --- --- --- 1 --- --- --- ---
Dera Ismail 3 2 --- --- --- --- --- 1 --- --- --- ---
FATA
All 12 4 --- --- --- --- 1 1 --- --- --- 6

Islamabad
All 3 3 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---

Calculations of above Table chart (Seats won by each party)

Party Number of seats


Pakistan Tehreek e Insaf 107 (Can stretch upto 120 seats, depending on last week before polling)
Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz 66
Pakistan Peoples party 37
Mutahida Qaumi movement 12
Pak Sarzameen Party 6
Jamaat e Islami 6
Balochistan Awami Party 6
Jamiat Ulma e Islam Fazal 5
Pakistan Muslim League (Quaid) 1
Balochistan National Party 1
Awami Muslim League 1
Independent Candidates 24
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Annexure
Cities breakdown in respective administrative divisions for elections are:

Divisions Cities (Respective Seats)

Punjab (141 Seats)

Rawalpindi: Rawalpindi, Attock, Jehlum, Chakwal (7+2+2+2= 13 seats)


Gujranwala: Gujrat, Sialkot, Narowal, Gujranwala, Mandi Bahauddin, Hafizabad
(4+5+2+6+2+1=20 seats)
Sargodha: Sargodha, Khushab, Mianwali, Bhakkar (5+2+2+2=11 seats)
Faisalabad Chiniot, Faisalabad, Toba Tek Singh, Jhang (2+10+3+3=18 seats)
Lahore: Lahore, Kasur, Sheikhupura, Nankana (14+4+4+2= 24 seats)
Sahiwal: Sahiwal, Okara, Pakpattan (3+4+2= 9 seats)
Multan: Multan, Vehari, Lodhran, Khanewal (6+4+2+4=16 seats)
Bahawalpur: Bahawalnagar, Bahawalpur, Rahim Yar Khan (4+5+6= 15 seats)
Dera Ghazi Khan: Muzaffargarh, Layyah, DG Khan, Rajanpur (6+2+4+3= 15 seats)

Sindh (61 Seats)

Larkana: Jacobabad, Kashmore, Shikarpur, Larkana, Kambar


Shahadkot (1+1+2+2+2=8 seats)
Sukkur: Ghotki, Sukkur, Khairpur (2+2+3=7 seats)
Sh Benazirabad: Naushehro Feroze, Benazir abad, Sanghar (2+2+3=7 seats)
Hyderabad: Matiari, Tando Allahyar, Hyderabad, Tando M Khan, Badin,
Sujawal, Thatta, Jamshoro, Dadu (1+1+3+1+2+1+1+1+2=13
seats)
Mirpurkhas: Mirpur Khas, Tharparkar, Umer Kot (2+1+2=5 seats)
Karachi: Malir, Korangi, East, south, west, central (3+3+4+2+5+4=21
seats)

Khyber Pakhtunkhawa (39 Seats)

Malakand: Chitral, Swat, Dir, Malakand, Buner, Shangla (1+3+3+1+1+1=10 seats)


Hazara: Shangla, Kohistan, Battagram, Mansehra, Abbotabad, Haripur
(1+1+1+2+2+1=8 seats)
Mardan: Swabi, Mardan (2+3=5 seats)
Peshawar: Charsadda, Nowshehra, Peshawar (2+2+5=9 seats)
Kohat: Kohat, Hangu, Karak (1+1+1=3 seats)
Bannu: Bannu, Laki Marwat (1+1=2 seats)
Dera Ismail: Tank, D I Khan (1+2=3 seats)

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Balochistan (16 Seats)

Quetta: Killa Saifullah, Loralai, Dera Bugti, Nasirabad, Jafarabad, Pishin, Killa Abdullah,
Quetta (1+1+1+1+1++1+1+3=10 seats)
Rest: Mastung, Chagai, Khuzdar, Panjgur, Kech, Lasbela (1+1+1+1+1+1=6 seats)

Federally Administered Tribal Areas (12 Seats)

Islamabad Capital Territory (3 Seats)

Political Parties names and abbreviations


PTI : Pakistan Tehreek e Insaf
PML N: Pakistan Muslim League Noon
PML Q: Pakistan Muslim League (Quaid e Azam)
PPP: Pakistan Peoples Party
MQM: Mutahida Qaumi Movement
PSP: Pak Sarzameen Party
JI: Jamaat e Islami
JUI F: Jamiat e Ulma e Islam Fazal ur Rehman
BNP: Balochistan National party
BAP: Balochistan Awami Party

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Analyst: Mr. Aitzaz Ahmad


Cell # +92-300-8822884
(Call timings: 10am-12pm, excluding Sundays)
Email: maitzaz424@hotmail.com

Political analysis & Predictions; a deep & brief insight


1. Upcoming Presidential Elections; Number game of PTI or
Lack of seriousness on part of opposition

2. PM Imran Khan’s Tour to Saudi Arabia; Re-invention of


Saudi-Pak Relations with seasoning of Exile discussion for Ex-
PM Nawaz Sharif

3. Real upcoming challenges to PML N; Strong local


Government system aka grass root weapon of PTI

Upcoming Presidential Elections


Number game of PTI or Lack of seriousness on part of opposition

After media’s romance is over with PM Imran Khan’s oath ceremony, talk of
the town these days is who will be the next President of Pakistan. Will it be a
clear shot for PTI or the opposition alliance can give a big surprise?

4th Sep, 2018 is scheduled to be the polling day for Presidential elections in
Pakistan. Electoral College consisting on Provincial assemblies, Parliament &
Senate, provide a slight margin of victory to PTI nominated candidate Dr. Arif
Alvi.

In my opinion, Main opposition stakeholders namely PML-N and PPP, both


have shown tremendous lack of seriousness to contest presidential elections
due to following reasons:
1. PML-N Chief Nawaz Sharif and PPP Co-Chairman Asif Zardari, both
realize that due to secret balloting in Presidential elections, most of
their party legislators wouldn’t vote for each other’s party candidate
due to ideological differences.

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2. PPP Chairman Asif Zardari nominated Mr. Aitzaz Ahsan only to make a
mockery of later. Asif Zardari, having a personal beef against Aitzaz
Ahsan (from old days of lawyers movement back in 2008) don’t admire
him, thus nomination of Aitzaz Ahsan as presidential candidate is utter
non-seriousness on part of Asif Zardari & Peoples Party.
3. Sensing the non-seriousness of Asif Zardari, PML-N Chief Nawaz Sharif
through his decoy Mr.Pervez Rasheed has conveyed strong reservations
through media against nomination of Chaudhry Aitzaz Ahsan.
4. PML-N powerless president Mr. Shahbaz Sharif, aiding his elder
brother’s will, has not nominated anyone from PML-N as presidential
candidate just for sake of face saving and to hide from general public
that how deeply shattered his political party is, which might be visible
through secret balloting, as PML N leadership fears that many PMLN
legislators might end up voting for PTI’s Presidential candidate Mr. Arif
Alvi.
5. Opposition so called coalition might end up having two or more
presidential candidates. Ultimately it’s a win for PTI in Presidential
elections.

PM Imran Khan’s Tour to Saudi Arabia


Re-invention of Saudi-Pak Relations with seasoning of
Exile discussion for Ex-PM Nawaz Sharif

After the Presidential elections, talk of the town will be ‘What’s going to
happen when PM Imran Khan visit Saudi Arabia expectedly in September’. Will
Pakistan ask for billions of dollars from Saudi Govt to avoid IMF or it will be
more about deciding the future of jailed Ex-PM Nawaz Sharif & daughter
Maryam Nawaz?

There is no doubt that Nawaz Sharif is low of stamina to bear his full jail term.
Instead he is desirous to get out of jail, or even fleeing out of Pakistan to avoid
Jail term. He might even consider to be willing for surrendering his visible
assets to Pakistani Government in exchange of his bail on parole. The only way
through for him will be to have a medical excuse to get a bail on parole. But
what about Maryam Nawaz? She doesn’t seem to have a serious medical
condition like her father’s. It is highly likely that Saudi Government will discuss
with PM Imran Khan about the future of Nawaz Sharif.

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In my opinion, arrangements of release of Nawaz Sharif or his exile in nearly


impossible till atleast 2019 due to following reasons:
1. Saudi Arabia’s new crown prince is himself a practitioner of getting hold
of black money through grey measures rather than legal proceedings.
It’s against his human nature to negotiate exile or release of Jailed
Nawaz Sharif without letting Pakistani Government to get the Black
Money minted by Nawaz Sharif.
2. By surrendering assets or availing an exile, Nawaz Sharif posing to
concede, this will severely damage his party’s reputation. Thus, he will
face intense pressure from his party to stay in Jail to keep the party
intact.
3. There is no way out for Maryam Nawaz Sharif to get an exile. She is not
a heart patient, unlike her father Nawaz Sharif, who will use the excuse
of his heart treatment in a foreign country, to get a bail on parole, if
ever he flees. There is a big “IF EVER”.

Real upcoming challenges to PML N


Strong local Government system aka grass root weapon of PTI

What will happen to the strength of opposition party, PMLN? Will it even
sustain in its original form till next elections of 2023? What about the forward
block within the party? How seriously PTI pose threat to PMLN in central
Punjab, which is the core strength zone of PMLN?

PML-N is a party of power politics, not an ideological party. There oxygen is


development funds; they are so used to it from past decade that without
minting money through development funds, their political existence in future
is feared by many in PMLN top circles.

In my opinion:
1. PML N will have a secret “forward block’ by end of 2019, before new
election of local Governments (scheduled in 2020). This will severely
damage PMLN at grass roots level, contrarily giving strength to PTI.
2. PTI will use strong local Government system to distribute funds in a
shrewd manner to ensure Local Government election win for PTI in
2020. PTI’s local Government will pave its way to another national win in
2023, this time with much bigger margin that 2018 elections.

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Analyst: Mr. Aitzaz Ahmad


Cell # +92-300-8822884
(Call timings: 10am-12pm, excluding Sundays)
Email: maitzaz424@hotmail.com

Political analysis & Predictions; a deep & brief insight


1. Federal Government aka Coalition Epidemic; Genuine threats
from coalition partners or bargaining tactics

2. United Opposition or Parted Opposition; PML-N + PPP = Bitter


past memories aligned with some big common interests

3. Govt upcoming bailout from IMF; Impact of possible rupee


devaluation on Federal Govt sustainability

Federal Government aka Coalition Epidemic


Genuine threats from coalition partners or bargaining tactics

PTI led coalition based Federal Government is composed of various alliance


partners. 2 main alliance parties with higher number of National Assembly
seats are namely PML-Q and MQM. Recently, a provincial minister of PML-Q
resigned but instead of sending the resignation letter to Chief Minister, he did
send the letter to his party chief. MQM’s key party man addressed a rally in
Karachi few weeks ago, threatening to quit the coalition if Govt. doesn’t keep
up the promises.

PML Q has locked horns with Prime Minister Imran Khan, on their following
“quote un-quote” demands:
1) PML-Q wants one more lucrative Federal Ministry for any of the son of
party’s linchpin Mr. Ch Pervez Elahi, who also happens to be Speaker
Punjab Assembly and Punjab province coalition partner as well.
2) PML-Q with an ambition to re-strengthen itself in grassroots politics of
Punjab, wants provincial ministry of “Local Govt Development” which
will be key to win upcoming local Govt elections, expected this year.
Currently, PTI is in no mood to let go this ministry to PML-Q.

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3) PML-Q wants complete autonomy for its current ministers to initiate


the projects in their respective ministries. They don’t want any
interference from either bureaucracy or Head of Government.

MQM has threatened to quit the coalition due to following reasons:


1) Since 2002, MQM always had the lucrative “Federal Ministry of ports,
shipping and maritime”. PTI didn’t give this ministry to MQM in 2018,
while forming the Government. Since then, MQM has developed a bad
taste against PTI Government.
2) MQM, facing a dying politics of its own, the Karachi Mayor of MQM, is
stripped of its powers and financial funds to run the local Govt.
autonomously and effectively. Sindh Govt led by PPP is giving tough time
to MQM by centralizing the powers to govern the local Govt.
3) MQM, is facing fierce competition in its home electorates, from PPP,
PTI, PSP etc. MQM, on one hand being partner of Federal Govt. and on
other hand, being in opposition is Sindh Govt, is going towards a disaster
and they realize it as well.

Prediction:-
PML-Q is in no position to leave PTI led coalition, even though PTI is in
no mood to give in to all demands of PML-Q. Ultimately PML-Q will be
given some assurances from PM Imran Khan and they will continue
working with PTI, after getting few demands fulfilled. PM Imran Khan
might give one more federal ministry to PML-Q but he will not let PML-Q
enjoy complete autonomy in their ministries neither will award them
the lucrative “local development Ministry’ of Punjab Govt.

MQM wants PM Imran Khan to interfere with Sindh Govt, compelling


them to award back the powers of local Govt. to Karachi Mayor. Since
MQM is most weak among all sitting coalition partners, and given the
heated relation between Federal and Sindh Govt, PM Imran Khan is not
at all willing to advocate on behalf of MQM.

Indeed PML-Q and MQM will keep blackmailing the PTI Govt. but these
parties know deep inside that they have no political shelter to go to
except of PTI led coalition.

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United Opposition or Divided Opposition


PML-N + PPP = Bitter past memories
aligned with some big common interests

Ever since the tightening of cases by NAB and courts, against chiefs of PML-N
and PPP; both parties display the tie-ups, be it meeting in National Assembly
chambers or during the parliamentary sessions. Unprecedently, members from
both parties speak for each other during the proceedings and roll up the
sessions by clapping for each other after verbal heated debates against the PTI
Government. Huge speculation is surfing in the power corridors about the
pandora of seemingly united opposition.

PML-N being a rightist party and PPP being a leftist, these both parties have
always been rivals since 1985. Their coalition for once in 2008, didn’t last until
2009, not even for a year. Whatever may come, these parties don’t have their
DNA matching. Ever since the NAB arrested PML-N linchpin Shehbaz Sharif and
threatened to open new corruption references against PPP chief Zardari, these
both parties have realized some common interests:

1) PML N and PPP, both are genuinely interested to curtail the powers of
NAB to escape smoothly from the corruption references filed against
their party chiefs and other members. They both want to serve as
insurance policy to each other.
2) PML-N and PPP, both having majority in upper legislative house of
Senate, are poised to give tough time to PTI, by blocking any legislation
PTI may want to do. PTI’s led Govt is keen on making key reforms in
legislation which will be impossible with support of opposition parties
due to number game.
3) Most difficult upcoming challenge for PTI Govt is to re-allow military
courts via legislative Assembly mandate. In exchange of giving votes to
the mandate, PML-N and PPP wants relaxation from PTI led Govt in
forms of curtailing NAB, un-doing opposition members name from Exit
Control List and weaker prosecution from the Govt in corruption
references.

Prediction:-
PML-N chief and Ex-PM Mr. Nawaz Sharif, who is in jail these days, is by far
known as a very rigid and stubborn man. He is fundamentally known to do

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solo-politics, apart from the help of PPP. Except of getting rid of jail and
corruption cases, he is not interested to join hands with PPP for any other
cause. He believe in doing opposition to PTI Led Govt on the shoulders of his
own party, because deep down he realizes that main battle ground of politics
is Punjab and he is not going to benefit PPP in Punjab by joining hands with
them.

PPP chief Mr. Zardari is somewhat satisfied due to having Sindh Govt in his
pocket, on the other hand, he being well-aware of PML-N Chief’s mindset,
knows that if he ends up in Jail, Nawaz Sharif isn’t going to do much for his
release, because as of now Nawaz Sharif is practicing “prophecy of silence”.

PTI led Govt has already give in to opposition’s key demand by giving the
chairmanship of Public Accounts committee to Opposition leader Mr. Shehbaz
Sharif, who is in jail these days as well. PTI considers that opposition is trapped
in pandora-box of corruption and isn’t strong enough both morally and in
number games to bring down the Government. PTI is keen to practice a
balanced approach to convince the opposition for the sake of legislations, it’s
keen to do. However, PTI by rooting back its DNA, is in no mood to be
blackmailed by opposition easily.

Govt upcoming bailout from IMF


Impact of possible rupee devaluation
on Federal Govt sustainability

Federal Govt. has been avoiding financial package from IMF and associated
Intl. donors. It’s an open secret that IMF has pre-condition attached to loan;
further devaluation of Pakistani currency. Various economic experts whisper
that IMF expects PKR175=US$1 in exchange of the loan.

PM Imran Khan has so far visited Saudi Arabia, China, UAE, Turkey and
Malaysia; in hope of avoiding the loan availment from IMF due to above
reasons. However, the ground reality is that none of above countries have
given considerable Cash Amount to Pakistani Government so far. With trade
deficit of around US$20 Billion, peanuts amount of around US$4 Billion has
been given by above countries accumulatively.

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Government is all set to re-negotiate by March, 2019 with IMF about financial
package. PM Imran Khan and his economic team has realized that in short
term, there is no option left except IMF and the loan will come with disastrous
price tag; devaluation of Pak Rupee.

Prediction:-
Further Rupee devaluation will bring a giant of inflation in Pakistan. PTI, which
promised curtailment of inflation during election slogans, will face severe
public anger after the Govt obtain IMF Package. This will not only weaken the
PTI Govt but it will also give a “big blackmailing pot” to key coalition partners
of the Govt.

Opposition parties, PML-N and PPP will try their best to fruitien this situation
in favor of their politics come back. Public support chunks, the Govt will lose,
will definitely go in the pockets of opposition parties. Within few months of
IMF financial package, dynamics of Pakistan’s politics will change drastically.

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Analyst: Mr. Aitzaz Ahmad


Cell # +92-300-8822884
(Call timings: 10am-12pm, excluding Sundays)
Email: maitzaz424@hotmail.com

Political analysis & Predictions; a deep & brief insight


1. Bail of opposition leader Mr. Shahbaz Sharif; Business as usual
or upcoming political nightmare for PTI led Government

2. Saudi Crown Prince visit to Pakistan; Ceremony of MOUs


signing or hard cash for Pakistan

Bail of opposition leader Mr. Shahbaz Sharif


Business as usual or nightmare for Govt.

Bail of opposition leader Mr. Shahbaz Sharif from Lahore High Court has come
across as a shock and blow to PTI Government. They were speculative of it but
were not expecting release of PML-N’s linchpin. Parliamentary business will
start to witness its peak following the free movement of Shahbaz Sharif
between the session and chamber of opposition leader in National Assembly.

Following the release of Shahbaz Sharif, PML-N is poised to en-cash this


blessing through following tactics:
1) Opposition leader being Chairman of Public Accounts Committee as
well, is keen to give a tough time to PTI Govt. scrutinizing the ongoing
projects, questioning transparency of Project Management practices by
PTI led Government.
2) Inflation, declining foreign exchange reserves and increasing imports
will be top most debates agenda of the opposition leader during
parliamentary sessions. He’s not going to let the Government rest and
operate in monopoly.
3) Shahbaz Sharif will strive to re-align his and his party’s relation with
Establishment, with hidden motive to exert pressure on PTI Govt. In
politics, there’s a quotation “Perceptions are always stronger than the
reality”. If Shahbaz Sharif succeeds in developing the perception of his

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cordial relations with Establishment, media will also start to bombard


the performance of PTI led Government.

Prediction:-
PML-N chief and Ex-PM Mr. Nawaz Sharif, who is in jail these days, is all
set to get bail soon too alike his brother. Nawaz Sharif is in no haste to
weaken the Government. He is known for his secretive planning and
perfect timings. He will maintain close liaison with his brother and
opposition leader Shahbaz Sharif to strengthen party at grass roots level
and to give tough time to PTI led Government. Both Sharif brothers will
neither go for street protests nor address big rallies any time soon. They
will wait for perfect timings for re-revival of the party with a very big
demonstration. My instincts tell that they will give a big surprise by
2020, if PTI Govt. fails to curtail inflation and price hikes.

Saudi Crown Prince visit to Pakistan


Ceremony of MOUs signing
Or Hard Cash for Pakistan

Talk of town these days is upcoming visit to Pakistan of Saudi crown prince,
also known as “MBS” (Mohammad Bin Salman).
(At the time of writing this analysis, visit has not been made)

Mix news are surfacing on mainstream media regarding the visit of MBS. Some
saying that it will be a game changer for Pakistan, others are calling it business
as usual. Dwelling down the itinerary of MBS visit, it comes to notice that he is
in fact on the tour of Asia, not only Pakistan. After Pakistan, he is scheduled to
visit India and China as well. I am of the view that this visit on him will be more
of Commercial and Trade in nature, rather than strategic paradigm change as
being speculated.

Contrary to popular belief:


1) Crown prince MBS is not at all interested in domestic politics of
Pakistan, neither he is keen to discuss fate of Ex-PM Nawaz Sharif.

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2) Govt. of Pakistan is keen to fetch some Hard cash in form of billions of


dollars to deposit in national kitty for boosting foreign exchange
reserves.
3) Most important aspect of MBS’s visit to Pakistan is to discuss transfer of
Military Might to Saudi Arabia for protection against Yemen and regional
terrorism.

Prediction:-
PML-N chief and Ex-PM Mr. Nawaz Sharif, who is soon to be granted bail; PML-
N will try to build a perception that Saudi’s are backing them in terms of holy
protection. Many media pundits will fall for this theory of PML-N and will
relate the bail of Ex-PM to recent visit of MBS to Pakistan calling it some sort
of NRO (very famous political term in Pakistan referring to release of a prisoner
via some international political brokering)

MBS is not going to give hard cash to Pakistan. Even if he does, its not going to
be a sufficient amount, not letting Pakistan get rid of future loan from IMF.
Had Saudia been willing to give cash to Pakistan, it had been materialized in
last visit of PM Imran Khan to Saudia few months ago. Saudia will sign MOU
deals with regard to Petroleum refinery and credit line sanctioning to Pakistan
for purchase of oil.

Given the nature of strategic terrorism and economic crunch of Pakistan,


Pakistani Government will not bow to the demand of Saudi Government,
asking for thousands of Pakistani troops to be stationed in Saudia, to fight with
Yemeni rebels. Pakistani troops will guard Holy Mosques in saudia but Pakistan
will not participate in war with Yemen on behalf of Saudi Arabia. After the visit
of MBS, nothing special is going to happen. Romance will be over and PTI led
Govt. will once again start to tackle powerful opposition and rising economic
crisis.

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Analyst: Mr. Aitzaz Ahmad


Cell # +92-300-8822884
(Call timings: 10am-12pm, excluding Sundays)
Email: maitzaz424@hotmail.com

Political analysis & Predictions; a deep & brief insight

Political impact
Arrest of Speaker- Sindh Assembly by NAB

NAB (National Accountability Bureau) arrested Speaker Sindh Assembly Mr.


Agha Siraj Durrani, also a close confidant of Ex-Pakistani President/Co-
Chairman PPP (Pakistan Peoples Party) Mr. Asif Zardari, on 20th Feb, 2019 from
Islamabad. Its 1st time since Pakistan history that a sitting speaker is arrested
on corruption charges by accountability bureau. Modus operandi of the arrest
episode is dubious, quashing the integrity of sacred Speaker’s office. Speaker
being the custodian of Assembly carries an integrity and political clout as well.

In this case, NAB made the arrest without lodging case in court and without
obtaining arrest warrant from court. NAB’s law allows for 90 days non-bail-
able arrest of corruption suspect, but in high profile cases it’s expected to get
the arrest warrant first. In this case, NAB maintains that they have done due
preliminary investigations to arrest the said politician. Secondly, given the past
track record of NAB’s prosecution, it comes to view that NAB has serious
capacity crises to prove white collar crimes, failing to indict the suspects. As an
illustration, Opposition leader Mr. Shahbaz Sharif got bail due to weak
prosecution on NAB’s part.

PPP’s linchpin in National Assembly Mr. Khurshid Shah and various opposition
leaders from PML-N also has conveyed strong protest to said arrest, not only in
National Assembly but also in various media platforms. Interesting thing is that
various PTI (Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf) leaders, who also happen to be rulers,
have also dissented to the way arrest was made from Islamabad and also
without any warrant. Many quarters of PTI also have reservations on sitting
speaker’s arrest and they are keen to curtail NAB powers in future but at the
moment they find it politically correct to maintain low-profile on this issue.

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Serious fear of arrest has triggered in PPP’s top leadership as they are also
facing various corruption references filed by NAB. Speaker Sindh Assembly’s
arrest is not going to be taken lightly by PPP, their think tank has started to
devise strategy for diffusing the integrity of NAB and its modus operandi.

Prediction:-
Opposition parties PPP and PML-N will strongly take-up this issue in
Parliament and Media until the arrested Speaker Sindh Assembly is
either released or indicted by the court. They are more interested to
create perception that PM Imran Khan is architect of NAB’s moves. NAB
will definitely feel heat and pressures from Media and other corridors in
the said case.

This case is highly political and will remain talk of town because
opposition leader is already out on bail, out of clutches of NAB. Given
the past weak prosecution record of NAB, Speaker will ultimately get
bail from courts after few months. It will prove a disaster for NAB’s
integrity.

In future, PPP and PML-N will join hands in legislation to either curtail
powers of NAB or to even shut down this agency (NAB) which was
established in 1997, with secret motive to victimize opposition
politicians and businessmen on the behest of then Prime Minister Mr.
Nawaz Sharif, who is now also a target of his own pet aka NAB.

A quotation by Franklin D. Roosevelt:


“In Politics, nothing happens by accident. If it happens, you can
bet it was planned that way.”