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• Resource names fell back today, led by PVD and GAS, as PVS failed to
trouble the scorers.
Head Office • Agriproducts and aquaculture stocks were also weaker, as GTN led
Level 5 & 6, AB Tower the stocks in retreat, which outnumbered gainers led by PAN by two to
76 Le Lai St., District 1, HCMC one. BFC; CFG and HNG all trod water.
T: (+84 28) 3 823 3299
F: (+84 28) 3 823 3301 • Pharmaceutical stocks were again higher, led again by TRA.
Hanoi Office
Level 2, Cornerstone building
• Utilities, transport and logistics stocks were mixed to lower, as trans-
16 Phan Chu Trinh, port names suffered, while PPC and other utilities gained on news of
Hoan Kiem District higher electricity prices. VJC marked time.
T: (+84 24) 3 9334693
F: (+84 24) 3 9334822 Vietnamese stocks extend their decline – The VN Index was sharply
down in the morning session, but rallied in the afternoon to pare losses to
http://www.hsc.com.vn around 40 bps. Hanoi followed a similar pattern, albeit trading in a narrower
HCMS <GO> band. Despite firmer oil prices and little movement in the US dollar, regional
bourses were weaker in general, in line with our domestic markets.
Please read the important disclaimer at
the end of the document.
Page 1 (Continued overleaf)
March 20th 2019
BANKS Closing
price
% change MARKET COMMENTARY
VCB 66,700 -0.1%
The recovery in the afternoon supports our view that a significant market cor-
CTG 23,000 -0.4%
rection is less likely than a period of consolidation, before the market is ready to
BID 36,100 -1.4%
breakout above 1,010pts.
EIB 17,400 -1.1%
ACB 31,000 -1.0% The shortest of the four futures contracts today outperformed the VN30 Index
STB 12,800 0.8% cash equities market, returning to a premium of 1.08 index points ahead of its
MBB 22,950 1.3% maturity date, while the three longer dated contracts saw discounts expand again
VPB 21,750 -0.7% to 11.42-13.62 index points, although there was a shift in order with the longest
HDB 31,750 -0.5%
dated contract now the most discounted. Selective large cap selling today no
doubt exacerbated declines in the morning session, however, we see little change
TCB 26,600 -0.6%
in the overall narrative.
NON-BANKS Closing price % change
BVH 97,600 2.4% In terms of sectors, apart from manufacturing and pharma names, which per-
PVI 36,000 -0.8% formed well, banks continued their decline, with real estate and construction
SSI 28,550 -1.2%
stocks, as well as resource names, being particularly out of favor. In Ho Chi Minh
today there were no contributors of any note, while Vingoup stablemates VHM;
HCM 30,400 -0.3%
VRE and VIC, in that order, as well as GAS and MSN were providing the head-
VND 17,350 0.3%
wind. In Hanoi the pattern was repeated, with no significant contributors, while
VCI 40,500 -1.2% ACB; VCS and SHB stood out for their negative contributions.
CONSUMER Closing % change
AND RETAIL price In local macro and general news - After their rebalancing dates, the fund certifi-
VNM 138,500 1.2% cates of the two largest ETFs (FTSE & VNM ETFs) continue to show a premium
MCH 97,500 0.1% and cash inflows. Today the VNM ETF is buying shares in the domestic market,
MSN 85,000 -2.3% which may be providing some partial support. E1VFVN30 cash inflows continue.
KDC 22,250 -1.1%
Large demand for the E1VFVN30 may be judged from the strong demand from
foreign investors, mainly Korean and Thai. From the beginning of 2019 to date,
KDF 27,300 -0.4%
foreign investors have net bought VND 1,121 billion in this fund.
SAB 249,500 0.6%
BHN 82,000 -0.6%
Monthly fund flow FTSE VNM ETF E1VFVN30 i-shares ETF Total
QNS 43,000 0.0% (US$ million) Vietnam Index
PNJ 101,500 -0.8% Mar-19 5.2 8.4 20.2 - 33.8
MWG 88,500 -0.7% Feb-19 20.8 45.8 22.9 - 89.5
TECHNOL- Closing price % change Jan-19 (0.4) - 4.4 4.2 8.2
OGY Dec-18 - 0.8 17.0 (6.7) 11.2
FPT 45,450 -0.5%
Nov-18 (6.0) (3.9) 0.1 (5.5) (15.3)
YEG 95,700 -6.9% Oct-18 (16.3) (12.1) (3.4) (4.0) (35.8)
MANUFACTUR- Closing % change Sep-18 (6.9) 3.3 3.9 (7.1) (6.8)
ING price
Aug-18 1.0 (0.8) 10.2 (17.2) (6.8)
AAA 15,950 -0.3%
Jul-18 (9.5) (1.6) 2.4 4.4 (4.3)
BMP 51,800 1.2%
Jun-18 4.5 0.8 (11.6) (21.9) (28.1)
DQC 28,700 1.1%
May-18 13.2 (18.3) 10.7 (66.3) (60.7)
DRC 24,200 2.1%
Apr-18 3.2 13.7 (5.5) (31.3) (19.9)
EVE 15,650 0.0%
Mar-18 - (5.5) (31.5) 19.2 (17.8)
HHS 4,160 1.5%
Feb-18 (12.5) 3.5 (3.5) 12.1 (0.4)
HPG 32,300 1.3%
Jan-18 4.2 42.0 85.2 4.5 135.9
HSG 9,150 0.4%
PAC 39,000 0.8%
ETF’s name Fund Flow YTD in Size in US$ Million Weighting of
NKG 7,310 1.0%
US$ Millions Vietnamese stocks
RAL 86,500 1.8%
FTSE Vietnam ETF 25.5 - 100.0%
STK 22,200 -0.4%
VNM ETF 54.2 417.0 72.3%
TCM 32,400 0.6%
E1VFVN30 ETF 47.6 245.5 100.0%
TMT 8,420 0.2%
iShare MSCI Frontier 4.2 509.2 18.2%
100 ETF
Page 2 (Continued overleaf)
March 20th 2019
Page 3
March 20th 2019
1,002
1,000
while 186 stocks down. And 14 stocks went to the ceiling while 10 stocks dropped
998 to the floor. Foreigners accounted for 40.29% of the buying value and 39.42% of
996 the selling value.
994
Foreign buying rose in actual terms and also in percentage terms. While foreign
992
990
988
selling also rose in actual terms and also in percentage terms. Foreigners turned
986 net buyers to the tune of VND 69.29 billion worth of shares in HCMC. And we saw
thirty two transactions in the put through market today.
9:15
9:25
9:35
9:45
9:55
10:05
10:15
10:25
10:35
10:45
10:55
11:05
11:15
11:25
13:00
13:10
13:20
13:30
13:40
13:50
14:00
14:10
14:20
14:30
14:40
14:50
Foreigners were active buyers of VRE; VCB; VNM; HPG and MSN. They also
actively sold VRE; VNM; VCB; MSN and HPG. The put through market was more
active today with four enormous; one super jumbo; five jumbo; eight large and
some medium sized & smaller deals accounting for 50.47% of total turnover.
Page 4
March 20th 2019
109
stocks dropped to the floor. Foreigners accounted for 0.27% of the buying value
109 and 1.23% of the selling value.
109
Foreigners were net sellers to the tune of VND 7.25 billion worth of shares. And
109
109
108 we saw eleven medium and small sized deals today during more active put
108
through session in Hanoi accounting for 33.93% of total turnover.
108
9:00
9:10
9:20
9:30
9:40
9:50
10:00
10:10
10:20
10:30
10:40
10:50
11:00
11:10
11:20
12:55
13:05
13:15
13:25
13:35
13:45
13:55
14:05
14:15
14:25
14:45
14:55
Page 5
March 20th 2019
Markets overview
Trend Trend Momentum Resistance Support Brief comments
6 months 1 month status
VN-index Down Up Negative 1010-1015 ** 990 ** The market retreated again at 1002 and
1025-1030 ** 965 ** has remained in a narrow range. A recovery
attempt likely be seen. The next resistance
level at 1025-1030 if the VN-index can break
above 1010-1015. The support at 990.
VN-30 Down Up Negative 945 ** 915 ** VN30 retreated to 924 and it has consolidat-
965-970 ** 875-880 ** ed in a narrow range for 5 days. A recovery
attempt may be seen. The resistance at 940-
945 while the nearest support is at 915.
HNX-index Down Up Negative 112 ** 102 ** Resistance at 112, support at 102.
115 ** 95 ***
Note: The tables rank importance of levels by stars: * (Weak), ** (Moderate), *** (Strong)
Page 6
March 20th 2019
• HSC’s analysis of the last 6 semi-annual rebalances shows that buying -10 and -5 trading days before index inclusion is
a strong trade on both an absolute and relative basis, with absolute returns of +6.4%/+4.1% respectively and only 1 down
observation.
• On a relative basis versus the VN30 buying the adds -10 and -5 trading days before inclusion produces average returns of
+6.0% and +3.2% vs VN30 with 1 and 0 down observations, respectively.
• 10 trading days before the official rebalance date would be Jan 21, and 5 days Jan 28, so we are currently in a sweet spot
for the rebalancing trade.
• EIB (Hold, PT14,700) and TCB (Buy, PT35,800) have little or no foreign share availability, but HDB (Outperform, PT39,700)
and VHM (Not Rated) can be traded.
• There appear to be no consistent trades around companies being dropped from the index.
- 20 - 10 -5 -3 -2 -1 +1 +2 +3 +5 +10 +20
1H16 10.7% 5.0% 1.1% 0.9% (0.4%) (1.5%) 0.0% (0.5%) 2.2% 2.2% (2.1%) (0.7%) 3.0%
2H16 (3.1%) (0.8%) 0.5% 2.2% 2.9% 1.4% 0.0% (2.1%) (2.4%) (4.8%) (2.4%) (4.2%) 2.0%
1H17 2.7% 6.5% 3.5% 3.3% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% (0.1%) 0.1% (0.8%) (0.2%) 0.1% (0.4%)
2H17 12.8% 9.5% 5.7% 2.5% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% (1.0%) (1.9%) (1.7%) (2.8%) (1.4%) (0.4%)
1H18 14.7% 8.9% 6.1% (1.2%) (3.3%) (0.1%) 0.0% (0.0%) (0.8%) (0.2%) (1.1%) 0.0% (0.6%)
2H18 (1.6%) 6.8% 2.6% (3.3%) (1.6%) (2.6%) 0.0% (1.2%) (1.8%) (4.0%) (2.5%) (3.3%) (5.2%)
Average 6.0% 6.0% 3.2% 0.7% 0.1% (0.4%) 0.0% (0.8%) (0.8%) (1.5%) (1.8%) (1.6%) (0.3%)
- 20 - 10 -5 -3 -2 -1 +1 +2 +3 +5 +10 +20
1H16 3.2% 1.7% (1.6%) (0.4%) (0.5%) (1.5%) 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 1.4% 3.6% 4.6% 9.0%
2H16 (2.5%) (1.0%) (1.1%) (1.5%) (0.4%) 1.9% 0.0% 2.6% 1.9% 0.2% (0.7%) (3.9%) (6.4%)
1H17 (2.0%) (1.3%) (0.8%) (2.5%) (1.5%) (0.6%) 0.0% 1.5% 0.9% (0.4%) 3.7% 6.5% 20.6%
2H17 2.1% 0.1% (3.8%) (2.8%) (2.4%) (1.4%) 0.0% (0.3%) 1.0% 0.6% 0.4% (3.0%) (5.3%)
1H18 4.9% (1.6%) 4.5% 5.5% 1.1% 3.2% 0.0% (1.3%) (7.9%) (13.4%) (11.8%) (17.7%) (21.2%)
2H18 (7.0%) (5.0%) (2.4%) (1.2%) (0.7%) 1.2% 0.0% 0.1% (0.3%) (0.4%) 1.9% 3.1% 11.3%
Average (0.2%) (1.2%) (0.9%) (0.5%) (0.7%) 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% (0.7%) (2.0%) (0.5%) (1.7%) 1.3%
Page 7
March 20th 2019
- 20 - 10 -5 -3 -2 -1 +1 +2 +3 +5 +10 +20
1H16 7.1% 3.0% 5.0% 4.2% 4.0% 2.8% 0.0% (1.9%) 1.6% 1.2% (2.8%) (1.3%) 4.5%
2H16 (0.1%) (1.2%) (3.9%) 0.4% 1.3% 1.2% 0.0% (1.9%) (1.4%) (3.0%) (2.1%) (7.1%) 4.3%
1H17 5.0% 6.1% 3.9% 3.6% 2.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% 1.6% 2.0% 2.8% 4.4% 4.4%
2H17 8.7% 6.6% 3.5% 1.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.9% 3.2% 1.6%
1H18 29.2% 13.6% 10.7% 0.1% (3.2%) (0.8%) 0.0% 0.2% (0.9%) (1.1%) (6.7%) (5.6%) (0.3%)
2H18 (6.7%) 10.4% 5.6% (3.7%) (2.7%) (2.1%) 0.0% (2.0%) (3.5%) (5.1%) (1.6%) (2.4%) (3.7%)
Average 7.2% 6.4% 4.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% (0.8%) (0.4%) (0.9%) (1.6%) (1.5%) 1.8%
- 20 - 10 -5 -3 -2 -1 +1 +2 +3 +5 +10 +20
1H16 (0.4%) (0.3%) 2.3% 2.9% 3.9% 2.7% 0.0% (1.2%) (0.3%) 0.4% 2.9% 4.0% 10.5%
2H16 0.5% (1.5%) (5.5%) (3.4%) (1.9%) 1.8% 0.0% 2.8% 2.9% 2.0% (0.4%) (6.8%) (4.1%)
1H17 0.2% (1.8%) (0.4%) (2.1%) (0.8%) (0.4%) 0.0% 2.1% 2.4% 2.4% 6.7% 10.8% 25.5%
2H17 (2.0%) (2.7%) (5.9%) (3.9%) (3.4%) (1.2%) 0.0% 0.8% 3.2% 2.5% 4.0% 1.6% (3.4%)
1H18 19.3% 3.1% 9.1% 6.8% 1.2% 2.5% 0.0% (1.1%) (8.0%) (14.3%) (17.4%) (23.3%) (20.9%)
2H18 (12.2%) (1.4%) 0.6% (1.6%) (1.7%) 1.7% 0.0% (0.7%) (2.0%) (1.5%) 2.8% 4.0% 12.8%
Average 0.9% (0.8%) 0.0% (0.2%) (0.4%) 1.2% 0.0% 0.5% (0.3%) (1.4%) (0.2%) (1.6%) 3.4%
Page 8
March 20th 2019
Market activity
HSX HNX
Ticker Price Chg % Ticker Price Chg % Ticker Price Chg % Ticker Price Chg %
NVT 9.3 0.6 7.0 OGC 5.2 -0.4 -7.0 CSC 17.7 1.6 9.9 TTZ 8.3 -0.9 -9.8
TDW 29.9 2.0 7.0 TLD 6.5 -0.5 -7.0 SAF 58.7 5.3 9.9 CTB 31.5 -3.4 -9.7
LAF 6.29 0.4 7.0 UDC 4.6 -0.3 -6.9 PPP 10 0.9 9.9 MSC 14.9 -1.6 -9.7
CMT 8.75 0.6 7.0 YEG 95.7 -7.1 -6.9 VE4 6.7 0.6 9.8 SDA 3.8 -0.4 -9.5
VNL 16.95 1.1 6.9 MCP 25.2 -1.9 -6.9 SGH 59.3 5.3 9.8 KMT 6.7 -0.7 -9.5
* The ex-right date ** New listed * The ex-right date ** New listed
Top 5 Active (by Volume) Top 5 Active (by Value) Top 5 Active (by Volume) Top 5 Active (by Value)
Ticker Volume % of Total Ticker USDMln % of Total Ticker Volume % of Total Ticker USDMln % of Total
OGC 9,205,280 5.1 ROS 9.5 5.6 SHB 6,551,630 17.2 ACB 4.2 19.7
CTG 9,015,900 5.0 CTG 8.9 5.3 PVS 3,563,934 9.4 PVS 3.3 15.7
MBB 7,979,570 4.4 MBB 7.8 4.6 ACB 3,143,264 8.3 VCG 2.2 10.4
FLC 6,871,690 3.8 HPG 7.8 4.6 HUT 2,074,225 5.5 SHB 2.2 10.3
ROS 6,825,400 3.8 VRE 7.6 4.5 VCG 1,823,000 4.8 VGC 1.4 6.6
* The ex-right date ** New listed * The ex-right date ** New listed
VRE 2,368,619,733 94.3% VRE 2,449,449,948 97.5% DGC 559,780 9.9% VGC 4,620,132 14.1%
VCB 147,903,983 81.6% VNM 111,672,148 58.9% AMV 343,010 78.7% VMC 2,576,530 57.2%
VNM 93,630,346 49.3% VCB 83,827,007 46.3% ART 213,200 6.5% SGC 440,000 97.9%
HPG 86,648,305 46.3% MSN 77,387,710 12.7% GDW 147,840 64.1% NTP 352,160 43.0%
MSN 60,284,020 9.9% HPG 56,398,850 30.1% PHP 138,240 100.0% NDN 348,150 4.6%
* The ex-right date ** New listed * The ex-right date ** New listed
1,200
1,000
800
595
600
400 258
162 237
173 250
140 171 190
116 215 154
200 63 81 142
32 64 71 62 127 93 125
73 32
39 26 53 69
23 6 29
10 6 25 1 4 5 6 11 5 11 41 24 17 21 15 5 11 8 8 10 10 1 13 23 9 30 15 6 48 12 20 13
0
-2 -2 -5 -1 -9 -16 -12 -2 -6 -14 -18 -8 -9 -12 -15 -9 -7
-45 -24 -30 -24 -100 -23
-79
-200 -32
-119
-124 -136 -185
-320
-400
-348
-600 -530
-800
01/07/19
01/08/19
01/09/19
01/10/19
01/11/19
01/12/19
01/13/19
01/14/19
01/15/19
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01/18/19
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01/22/19
01/23/19
01/24/19
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01/26/19
01/27/19
01/28/19
01/29/19
01/30/19
01/31/19
02/01/19
02/02/19
02/03/19
02/04/19
02/05/19
02/06/19
02/07/19
02/08/19
02/09/19
02/10/19
02/11/19
02/12/19
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02/14/19
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02/21/19
02/22/19
02/23/19
02/24/19
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02/26/19
02/27/19
02/28/19
03/01/19
03/02/19
03/03/19
03/04/19
03/05/19
03/06/19
03/07/19
03/08/19
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03/15/19
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03/18/19
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03/20/19
Page 9
March 20th 2019
Market activity
HSX HNX
Page 10
March 20th 2019
Markets at a glance
Key indicators
HSX HNX Top 70 stocks by market capitalisation
550 USD 25
80
USD 150
500 USD 20
60
USD 100
450 USD 15
40
400 USD 10
USD 50
350 USD 5 20
19-Jan
25-Jan
29-Jan
04-Feb
17-Feb
23-Feb
29-Feb
04-Mar
10-Mar
16-Mar
22-Mar
28-Mar
20-Mar
01-Apr
07-Apr
11-Jan
13-Jan
15-Jan
19-Jan
21-Jan
25-Jan
27-Jan
29-Jan
02-Feb
04-Feb
15-Feb
17-Feb
19-Feb
23-Feb
25-Feb
29-Feb
02-Mar
04-Mar
08-Mar
10-Mar
14-Mar
16-Mar
18-Mar
22-Mar
24-Mar
28-Mar
30-Mar
20-Mar
01-Apr
05-Apr
07-Apr
11-Apr
Page 11
March 20th 2019
Global Disclaimer
Copyright 2019 Ho Chi Minh Securities Corporation (HSC). All rights reserved. This report has been prepared and
issued by HSC or one of its affiliates for distribution in Vietnam and overseas. Opinions, estimates and projection ex-
pressed in this report represent the current views of the author at the date of publication only. They do not necessarily
reflect the opinions of HSC and are subject to change without notice. HSC has no obligation to update, amend or in
any way modify this report or otherwise notify a reader thereof in the event that any of the subject matter or opinion,
projection or estimate contained within it changes or becomes inaccurate. The information herein was obtained from
various sources and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Prices and availability of financial instruments
are also subject to change without notice. This published research may be considered by HSC when buying or selling
proprietary positions or positions held by funds under its management. HSC may trade for its own account as a result
of short term trading suggestions from analysts and may also engage in securities transactions in a manner inconsis-
tent with this report and opinions expressed there in. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed in this report
constitutes an offer, nor an invitation to make an offer, to buy or to sell any securities or any option, futures or other
derivative instruments in any jurisdiction. Nor should it be construed as an advertisement for any financial instruments.
Officers of HSC may have a financial interest in securities mentioned in this report or in related instruments. This re-
search report is prepared for general circulation for general information only. It does not have regard to the specific
investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any person who may receive or read this report. Inves-
tor should note that the prices of securities fluctuate and may rise and fall. Past performance, if any, is no guide to the
future. The financial instruments discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make
their own financial decisions based on their independent financial advisors as they believe necessary and based on
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Disclaimer in accordance with law.
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Page 12