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76 The Science of Physical Geography

CHAPTER 3: The Science of Physical Geography

(a). Scientific Method

(b). The Hypothetico-Deductive Method

(c). Concepts of Time and Space in Physical Geography

(d). Study of Form or Process?

(e). Descriptive Statistics

(f). Hypothesis Testing

(g). Inferential Statistics: Comparison of Sample Means

(h). Inferential Statistics: Regression and Correlation

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(a). Scientific Method

Francis Bacon (1561-1626), a 17th century English philosopher, was the first individual to
suggest a universal methodology for science. Bacon believed that scientific method required
an inductive process of inquiry. Karl Popper later refuted this idea in the 20th century.
Popper suggested that science could only be done using a deductive methodology. The next
topic (3b) examines Karl Popper's recommended methodology for doing science more
closely.

Science is simply a way of acquiring knowledge about nature and the Universe. To practice
science, one must follow a specific universal methodology. The central theme of this
methodology is the testing of hypotheses. A hypothesis can be defined as a proposal intended
to explain certain facts or observations that has not been formally tested. The overall goal of
science is to better comprehend the world around us. Various fields of study, like physics,
chemistry, biology, medicine and the earth sciences, have used science exclusively to expand
their knowledge base. Science allows its practitioners to acquire knowledge using techniques
that are both neutral and unbiased.

The broadest, most inclusive goal of science is to understand (see Figure 3a-1).
Understanding involves two interconnected processes: explanation and confirmation.
Explanation is perhaps the most important basic goal of understanding. Explanation consists
of explaining reality with a system of hypotheses, theories, and laws. Explanation may also
relate observed phenomena to a system of empirical formulas, or link them to mechanisms
that are hierarchically structured at both higher and lower levels of function. A theory can be
defined as a collection of logical ideas that are used to explain something. The process of
testing, refining, and re-testing hypotheses constructs theories. The nature of this
confirmation process suggests that theories are rarely static..

Figure 3a-1: Relationship between reality, theory, and understanding in science. This model
suggests that we develop scientific theories to explain phenomena found in reality. Once a
theory is established, it must be confirmed by re-examining reality to find contrary data. If
contrary data is found, the theory is modified to include this new information and the
confirmation process begins again. The process of validating theories is endless process
because we can never assume that we have considered all possibilities.

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Figure 3a-2: Facilitating tools involved explanation and confirmation.

Explanation has two important secondary components: idealization and unification (see
Figure 3a-2). Idealization may be considered to be the condensation of a body of empirical
fact into a simple statement. In the process of condensation, some detail must be omitted and
the processes and phenomenon abstracted. Idealization may also involve isolating the
phenomenon from other aspects of the system of interest. A second aspect of explanation is
the unification of apparently unrelated phenomena in the same abstract or ideal system of
concepts.

Another minor goal of science is the confirmation of constructed models or theories


associated with understanding. Confirmation is accomplished through hypothesis testing,
prediction, and by running experiments. The next topic (3b) examines these aspects of
science in greater detail.

(b). The Hypothetico-Deductive Method

Philosopher Karl Popper suggested that it is impossible to prove a scientific theory true by
means of induction, because no amount of evidence assures us that contrary evidence will
not be found. Instead, Karl Popper proposed that proper science is accomplished by
deduction. Deduction involves the process of falsification. Falsification is a particular
specialized aspect of hypothesis testing. It involves stating some output from theory in
specific and then finding contrary cases using experiments or observations. The methodology
proposed by Popper is commonly known as the hypothetico-deductive method.

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Popper's version of scientific method first begins with the postulation of a hypothesis. A
hypothesis is an educated guess or a theory that explains some phenomenon. The researcher
then tries to prove or test this scientific theory false through prediction or experimentation
(see Figure 3a-2).A prediction is a forecast or extrapolation from the current state of the
system of interest. Predictions are most useful if they can go beyond simple forecast. An
experiment is a controlled investigation designed to evaluate the outcomes of causal
manipulations on some system of interest.

To get a better understanding of the hypothetico-deductive method, we can examine the


following geographic phenomena. In the brackish tidal marshes of the Pacific Coast of British
Columbia and Washington, we find that the plants in these communities spatially arrange
themselves in zones that are defined by elevation. Near the shoreline plant communities are
dominated primarily by a single species known as Scirpus americanus. At higher elevations
on the tidal marsh Scirpus americanus disappears and a species called Carex lyngbyei
becomes widespread. The following hypothesis has been postulated to explain this unique
phenomenon:

The distribution of Scirpus americanus and Carex lyngbyei is controlled by their tolerances to
the frequency of tidal flooding. Scirpus americanus is more tolerant of tidal flooding than
Carex lyngbyei and as a result it occupies lower elevations on the tidal marsh. However,
Scirpus americanus cannot survive in the zone occupied by Carex lyngbyei because not
enough flooding occurs. Likewise, Carex lyngbyei is less tolerant of tidal flooding than
Scirpus americanus and as a result it occupies higher elevations on the tidal marsh. Carex
lyngbyei cannot survive in the zone occupied by Scirpus americanus because too much
flooding occurs.

According to Popper, to test this theory a scientist would now have to prove it false. As
discussed above this can be done in two general ways: 1) predictive analysis; or 2) by way of
experimental manipulation. Each of these methods has been applied to this problem and the
results are described below.

Predictive Analysis

If the theory is correct, we should find that in any tidal marsh plant community that contains
Scirpus americanus and Carex lyngbyei that the spatial distribution of these two species
should be similar in all cases. This is indeed true. However, there could be some other causal
factor, besides flooding frequency, that may be responsible for these unique spatial patterns.

Experimental Manipulation

If the two species are transplanted into the zones of the other they should not be able to
survive. An actual transplant experiment found that Scirpus americanus can actually grow in
the zone occupied by Carex lyngbyei, while Carex lyngbyei could also grow at lower Scirpus
sites. However, this growth became less vigorous as the elevation became lower and at a
certain elevation it could not grow at all. These results falsify the postulated theory. So the
theory must be modified based on the results and tested again.

The process of testing theories in science is endless. Part of this problem is related to the
complexity of nature. Any one phenomenon in nature is influenced by numerous factors each
having its particular cause and effect. For this reason, one positive test result is not conclusive

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proof that the phenomenon under study is explained. However, some tests are better than
others and provide us with stronger confirmation. These tests usually allow for the isolation
of the phenomena from the effects of causal factors. Manipulative experiments tend to be
better than tests based on prediction in this respect.

(c). Concepts of Time and Space in Physical Geography

The concepts of time and space are very important for understanding the function of
phenomena in the natural world. Time is important to Physical Geographers because the
spatial patterns they study can often only be explained in historic terms. The measurement of
time is not absolute. Time is perceived by humans in a relative fashion by using human
created units of measurement. Examples of human created units of time are the measurement
of seconds, minutes, hours, and days.

Geographers generally conceptualize two types of space. Concrete space represents the real
world or environment. Abstract space models reality in a way that distills much of the
spatial information contained in the real world. Maps are an excellent example of abstract
space. Finally, like time, space is also perceived by humans in a relative fashion by using
human created units of measurement.

Both time and space are variable in terms of scale. As such, researchers of natural
phenomena must investigate their subjects in the appropriate temporal and/or spatial scales.
For example, an investigator studying a forest ecosystem will have to deal with completely
different scales of time and space when compared to a researcher examining soil bacteria.
The trees that make up a forest generally occupy large tracts of land. For example, the boreal
forest occupies millions of hectares in Northern Canada and Eurasia. Temporally, these trees
have life spans that can be as long as several hundred years. On the other hand, soil bacteria
occupy much smaller spatial areas and have life spans that can be measured in hours and
days.

(d). Study of Form or Process?

Physical Geography as a science is experiencing a radical change in philosophy. It is


changing from a science that was highly descriptive to one that is increasingly experimental
and theoretical. This transition represents a strong desire by Physical Geographers to
understand the processes that cause the patterns or forms we see in nature.

Before 1950, the main purpose of research in Physical Geography was the description of the
natural phenomena. Much of this description involved measurement for the purpose of
gaining basic facts dealing with form or spatial appearance. Out of this research Physical
Geographers determined such things as: the climatic characteristics for specific locations and
regions of the planet; flow rates of rivers; soil characteristics for various locations on the
Earth's surface; distribution ranges of plant and animal species; and calculations of the
amount of freshwater stored in lakes, glaciers, rivers and the atmosphere. By the beginning of
the 20th century Physical Geographers began to examine the descriptive data that was
collected, and started to ask questions related to why? Why is the climate of urban

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environments different from the climate of rural? Why does hail only form in thunderstorms?
Why are soils of the world's tropical regions nutrient poor? Why do humid and arid regions
of the world experience different levels of erosion?

In Physical Geography, and all other sciences, most questions that deal with why are usually
queries about process. Some level of understanding about process can be derived from basic
descriptive data. Process is best studied, however, through experimental manipulation and
hypothesis testing. By 1950, Physical Geographers were more interested in figuring out
process than just collecting descriptive facts about the world. This attitude is even more
prevalent today because of our growing need to understand how humans are changing the
Earth and its environment.

Finally, as mentioned above, a deeper understanding of process normally requires the use of
hypothesis testing, experimental methods, and statistics. As a result, the standard
undergraduate and graduate curriculum in Physical Geography exposes students to this type
of knowledge so they can better ask the question why?

(e). Descriptive Statistics

Introduction

Physical Geographers often collect quantitative information about natural phenomena to


further knowledge in their field of interest. This collected data is then often analyzed
statistically to provide the researcher with impartial and enlightening presentation, summary,
and interpretation of the phenomena understudy. The most common statistical analysis
performed on data involves the determination of descriptive characteristics like measures of
central tendency and dispersion.

It usually is difficult to obtain measurements of all the data available in a particular system of
interest. For example, it may be important to determine the average atmospheric pressure
found in the center of hurricanes. However, to make a definitive conclusion about a
hurricane's central pressure with 100% confidence would require the measuring of all the
hurricanes that ever existed on this planet. This type of measurement is called a population
parameter. Under normal situations, the determination of population parameters is
impossible, and we settle with a subset measure of the population commonly called an
estimator. Estimators are determined by taking a representative sample of the population
being studied.

Samples are normally taken at random. Random sampling implies that each measurement in
the population has an equal chance of being selected as part of the sample. It also ensures that
the occurrence of one measurement in a sample in no way influences the selection of another.
Sampling methods are biased if the recording of some influences the recording of others or if
some members of the population are more likely to be recorded than others.

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Measures of Central Tendency

Collecting data to describe some phenomena of nature usually produces large arrays of
numbers. Sometimes it is very useful to summarize these large arrays with a single parameter.
Researchers often require a summary value that determines the center in a data sample's
distribution. In orther words, a measure of the central tendency of the data set. The most
common of these measures are the mean, the median, and the mode.

Table 3e-1 describes a 15-year series of number of days with precipitation in December for
two fictitious locations. The following discussion describes the calculation of the mean,
median, and mode for this sample data set.

Table 3e-1: Number of days with precipitation in December for Piney and Steinback, 1967-
81.

Year Piney Steinback


1967 10 12
1968 12 12
1969 9 13
1970 7 15
1971 10 13
1972 11 9
1973 9 16
1974 10 11
1975 9 12
1976 13 13
1977 8 10
1978 9 9
1979 10 13
1980 8 14
1981 9 15
(Xi) 144 187
N 15 15

The mean values of these two sets is determined by summing of the yearly values divided by
the number of observations in each data set. In mathematical notation this calculation would
be expressed as:

mean ( ) = (Xi)/N

where Xi is the individual values, N is the number of values, and is sigma, a sign used to
show summation.
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Thus, the calculate means for Piney and Steinback are:

Piney mean = 10 (rounded off)

Steinback mean = 13 (rounded off)

The mode of a data series is that value that occurs with greatest frequency. For Piney, the
most frequent value is 9 which occurs five times. The mode for Steinback is 13.

The third measure of central tendency is called the median. The median is the middle value
(or the average of the two middle values in an even series) of the data set when the
observations are organized in ascending order. For the two locations in question, the medians
are:

Piney

9, 9, 10, 11, 12, 12, 12, 13, 13, 13, 13, 14, 15, 15, 16

median = 13

Steinback

7, 8, 8, 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 10, 10, 10, 10, 11, 12, 13

median = 9

Measures of Dispersion

Measures of central tendency provide no clue into how the observations are dispersed within
the data set. Dispersion can be calculated by a variety of descriptive statistics including the
range, variance, and standard deviation. The simpest measure of dispersion is the range.
The range is calculated by subtracting the smallest individual value from the largest. When
presented together with the mean, this statistic provides a measure of data set variability. The
range, however, does not provide any understanding to how the data are distributed about the
mean. For this measurement, the standard deviation is of value.

The following information describes the calculation of the range, variance, and standard
deviation for the data set in Table 3e-2.

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Table 3e-2: Dates of the first fall frost at Somewhere, USA, for an 11-year period.

Day of First Frost * (Xi) Xi - (Xi - )2


291 -8 64
299 0 0
279 -20 400
302 3 9
280 -19 361
303 4 16
299 0 0
304 5 25
307 8 64
314 15 225
313 14 196
(Xi) = 3291
(Xi - )2 = 1360
= 3291/11 = 299
*The dates are given in year days, i.e., January 1st is day 1, January
2nd is day 2, and so on throughout the year.

The range for the data is set is derived by subtracting 279 (the smallest value) from 314 (the
largest value). The range is 35 days.

The first step in the calculation of standard deviation is to determine the variance by
obtaining the deviations of the individual values (Xi) from the mean ( ). The formula for
variance (S2) is:

S2 = [ (Xi - )2] /(N-1)

where is the summation sign, (Xi - )2 is calculated (third column), and N is the number of
observations. Standard deviation (S) is merely the square root of the variance ( S2 ).

In the case of the Somewhere data, the standard deviation is:

S2 = 1356 / 10

S = 11.6 or 12 (to the nearest day)

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This value provides significant information about the distribution of data around the mean.
For example:

(a) The mean ± one sample standard deviation contains approximately 68% of the
measurements in the data series.

(b) The mean ± two sample standard deviations contains approximately 95% of the
measurements in the data series.

In Somewhere, the corresponding dates for fall frosts ± one and two standard deviations
from the mean (day 299) are:

Minus two standard deviations: 299 - 24 = 275

Minus one standard deviation: 299 - 12 = 287

Plus one standard deviation: 299 + 12 = 311

Plus two standard deviations: 299 + 24 = 323

The calculations above suggest that the chance of frost damage is only 2.5% on October 2nd
(day 275), 16% on October 15th (day 287), 50% on October 27th (day 299), 84% on
November 8th (day 311), and 97.5% on November 20th (day 323).

(f). Hypothesis Testing

In section 3b, we discovered that an important component of scientific method was the
testing of hypotheses either through experiments or predictive forms of analysis. A
hypothesis can be defined as a tentative assumption that is made for the purpose of empirical
scientific testing. A hypothesis becomes a theory of science when repeated testing produces
the same conclusion.

In most cases, hypothesis testing involves the following structured sequence of steps. The
first step is the formulation of a null hypothesis. The null hypothesis is the assumption that
will be maintained by the researcher unless the analysis of data provides significant evidence
to disprove it. The null hypothesis is denoted symbolically as H0. For example, here is a
formulated null hypothesis related to the investigation of precipitation patterns over adjacent
rural and urban land-use types:

H0 : There is no difference in precipitation levels between urban and adjacent rural areas.

The second step of hypothesis testing is to state the alternative hypothesis (H1). Researchers
should structure their tests so that all outcomes are anticipated before the tests and that results
can be clearly interpreted. Some tests may require the formulation of multiple alternative
hypotheses. However, interpretation is most clear cut when the hypothesis is set up with only
one alternative outcome. For the example dealing with precipitation patterns over adjacent
rural and urban land-use types, the alternative might be:

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H1 : There is an increase in precipitation levels in urban areas relative to adjacent rural areas
because of the heating differences of the two surface types (the urban area heats up more and
has increased convective uplift).

Step three involves the collection of data for hypothesis testing. It is assumed that this data is
gathered in an unbiased manner. For some forms of analysis that use inferential statistical
tests the data must be collected randomly, data observations should be independent of each
other, and the variables should be normally distributed.

The fourth step involves testing the null hypothesis through predictive analysis or via
experiments. The results of the test are then interpreted (acceptance or rejection of the null
hypothesis) and a decision may be made about future investigations to better understand the
system under study. In the example used here, future investigations may involve trying to
determine the mechanism responsible for differences in precipitation between rural and urban
land-use types.

Inferential Statistics and Significance Levels

Statisticians have developed a number of mathematical procedures for the purpose of testing
hypotheses. This group of techniques is commonly known as inferential statistics (see
sections 3g and 3h for examples). Inferential statistics are available both for predictive and
experimental hypothesis testing. This group of statistical procedures allow researchers to test
assumptions about collected data based on the laws of probability. Tests are carried out by
comparing calculated values of the test statistic to assigned critical values.

For a given null hypothesis, the calculated value of the test statistic is compared with tables
of critical values at specified significance levels based on probability. For example, if a
calculated test statistic exceeds the critical value for a significance level of 0.05 then this
means that values of the test statistic as large as, or larger than calculated from the data would
occur by chance less than 5 times in 100 if the null hypothesis was indeed correct. In other
words, if we were to reject the null hypothesis based on this probability value of the test
statistic, we would run a risk of less than 5% of acting falsely.

One-tailed and Two-tailed Tests

When using some types of inferential statistics the alternative hypothesis may be directional
or non-directional. A directional hypothesis (or one-sided hypothesis) is used when either
only positive or negative differences are of interest in an experimental study. For example,
when an alternative hypothesis predicts that the mean of one sample would be greater (but
not less) than another, then a directional alternative would be used. This type of statistical
procedure is known as a one-tailed test. A non-directional (or two-sided) hypothesis would
be used when both positive and negative differences are of equal importance in providing
evidence with which to test the null hypothesis. We call this type of test two-tailed.

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(g). Inferential Statistics: Comparison of Sample Means

Introduction

In Physical Geography it is often necessary to test whether two samples of the same natural
event are statistically distinct under different conditions. For example, a research scientist
may want to determine if rainfall from convective storms differs in its intensity in rural and
adjacent urban landscapes. Information from this investigation can then be used to test
theories concerning the influence of the urban landscape on the development of
thunderstorms. Further, this type of hypothesis testing changes our general comprehension
in Physical Geography from simple description to process oriented understanding. A number
of inferential statistical procedures have been developed to carry out this process. We will
examine two of the most popular statistical techniques available to researchers.

Mann-Whitney U test

In research work it is often necessary to test whether two samples of the same phenomenon
are statistically different. One test that is particularly useful for this type of test situation is
the Mann-Whitney U test. This technique is non-parametric or 'distribution-free' in nature.
Non-parametric methods are particularly suited to data that are not normally distributed.

Setting up the Null Hypothesis

This is the first stage of any statistical analysis and states the hypothesis that is to be tested.
This is the assumption that will be maintained unless the data provide significant evidence to
discredit it. The null hypothesis is denoted symbolically as H0. For our example, the null
hypothesis would be:

H0 : there is no difference in precipitation levels between urban and adjacent rural areas.

It is also necessary to state the alternative hypothesis (H1). In this case the alternative might
be:

H1 : there is an increase in precipitation levels in urban areas relative to adjacent rural areas
because of the heating differences of the two surface types (the urban area heats up more and
has increased convective uplift).

Calculation

To calculate the U-statistic, the values for both sets of samples are ranked together in an
ascending fashion. When ties occur, the mean rank of all the scores involved in the tie is
entered for those observations. The rank values for each set of observations are then summed
separately to determine the following values:

 r1 and  r2

These values are then entered in the formulae shown under Table 3g-1 for the calculation of
U and U1.

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Table 3g-1: Analysis of convective precipitation levels per storm


event (mm of rain) between urban and rural areas using the Mann-
Whitney U test.

Urban (n1) Rural (n2) Rank (n1) Rank (n2)


28 14 26 5
27 20 25 13.5
33 16 28 8.5
23 13 20 2.5
24 18 23 11
17 21 10 16
25 23 24 20
23 20 20 13.5
31 14 27 5
23 20 20 13.5
23 20 20 13.5
22 14 17 5
15 11 7 1
- 16 - 8.5
- 13 - 2.5
n1 = 13 n2 = 15  r1 = 267  r2 = 139

U = n1•n2 + {n1•(n1 + 1)}/2 -  r1


U = 13 • 15 + {13•(13 + 1)}/2 - 267 = 19
U1 = n1•n2 + {n2•(n2 + 1)}/2 -  r2
U1 = 13 • 15 + {15•(15 + 1)}/2 - 139 = 176

where n1 is the number of observations in the first sample, and n2 is the number of
observations in the second sample.

The lower of these two values (U and U1) is then taken to determine the significance of the
difference between the two data sets. Calculated from the data found on Table 3g-1, the
value of U is 19 and U1 is 176. The lower value is thus 19. This value is now compared to the
critical value found on the significance tables for the Mann-Whitney U (Table 3g-2) at a pre-
determined significance level for the given sample sizes. An important feature of this
statistical test is that the greater the difference between the two sets of samples, the smaller
will be the test statistic (i.e., the lower value of U or U1). Thus, if the computed value is
lower than the critical value in Table 3g-2, the null hypothesis (H0) is rejected for the given
significance level. If the computed value is greater than the critical value, we then accept the
null hypothesis.

Using a significance level of 0.05 with sample sizes of n1 = 13 and n2 = 15, the critical value
in the table for a two-tailed test is 54. Note that this is a two-tailed test, because the direction
of the relationship is not specified. The computed value of U is 19, which is much less than

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the tabulated value. Thus, the null hypothesis (H0) is rejected and the alternative hypothesis
(H1) is accepted.

Table 3g-2: Critical values of U for the Mann-Whitney U test (P = 0.05).

n 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
2 - - - - - - - 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2
3 - - - - 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8
4 - - - - - - 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 11 12 13 13
5 - 0 1 2 2 3 5 6 7 8 9 10 12 13 14 15 17 18 19 20
6 - - - - - 5 6 8 10 11 13 14 16 17 19 21 22 24 25 27
7 - - - - - - 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34
8 - - - - - - - 13 15 17 19 22 24 26 29 31 34 36 38 41
9 - - - - - - - - 17 20 23 26 28 31 34 37 39 42 45 48
10 - - - - - - - - - 23 26 29 33 36 39 42 45 48 52 55
11 - - - - - - - - - - 30 33 37 40 44 47 51 55 58 62
12 - - - - - - - - - - - 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69
13 - - - - - - - - - - - - 45 50 54 59 63 67 72 76
14 - - - - - - - - - - - - - 55 59 64 67 74 78 83
15 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 64 70 75 80 85 90
16 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 75 81 86 92 98
17 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 87 93 99 105
18 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 99 106 112
19 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 113 119
20 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 127

Unpaired Student's t-Test

Another statistical test used to determine differences between two samples of the same
phenomenon is the Student's t-test. The Student's t-test, however, differs from the Mann-
Whitney U test in that it is used with data that is normally distributed (parametric).

Table 3g-3 describes the data from two "treatments" of strawberry plants that were subjected
to freezing temperatures over an equal period of days. The data displayed are the numbers of
fruit produced per plant. The treatments consist of genetically engineered and control
(normal) varieties.

H0 : there is no difference in the number of strawberries produced by the control and


genetically engineered varieties.
H1 : there is a difference in the number of strawberries produced by the control and
genetically engineered varieties.

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Table 3g-3: Strawberry data.

Control (Xa)2 Engineered (Xb)2

(Xa) (Xb)
10.7 114.49 10.0 100
6.7 44.89 10.2 104.04
8.7 75.69 12.0 144
8.3 68.89 10.5 110.25
10.6 112.36 10.3 106.09
8.3 68.89 9.4 88.36
10.0 100 9.7 94.09
9.8 96.04 12.7 161.29
9.1 82.81 10.4 108.16
9.8 96.04 10.8 116.64
8.9 79.21 12.3 151.29
10.3 106.09 11.0 121
8.3 68.89 12.3 151.29
9.4 88.36 10.8 116.64
8.8 77.44 10.6 112.36
10.9 118.81 10.1 102.01
9.4 88.36 10.7 114.49
7.9 62.41 10.2 104.04
8.3 68.89 9.5 90.25
8.6 73.96 11.0 121
11.1 123.21 9.4 88.36
8.8 77.44 10.2 104.04
7.5 56.25 11.2 125.44
8.9 79.21 10.5 110.25
7.9 62.41 11.9 141.61
- - 12.3 151.29
 Xa = 227  Xa = 2091.04
2
 Xb = 280  Xb = 3038.28
2

2 2
( Xa) = 51,529 ( Xb) = 78,400

= 9.08

= 10.77

na = 25 nb = 26

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To test the hypothesis that there is no difference between strawberry varieties we compute:

where : and are the arithmetic means for groups A and B, na and nb are the number of
observations in groups A and B, and S2 is the pooled within-group variance.

To compute the pooled within variance, we calculate the corrected sum of squares (SS)
within each treatment group.

= 2091.04 - 2061.16 = 29.88

= 3038.28 - 3015.38 = 22.90

Then the pooled variance is

= 1.077

and,

= 5.814

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This value of t has (na - 1) + (nb - 1) degrees of freedom. If it exceeds the tabular value of t
(Table 3g-4) at a pre-determined probability level, we can reject the null hypothesis, and the
difference between the two means would be considered statistically significant (greater than
would be expected by chance if there is actually no difference).

In this case, the critical t value with 49 degrees of freedom at the 0.01 probability level is
approximately 2.682. Since our sample is greater than this, the difference is significant at the
0.01 level and we can reject the null hypothesis.

The Paired t-Test

The previous description for the t-test assumed that the random samples are drawn from the
two populations independently. However, there are some situations where the observations
are paired. Analyzing paired data is done differently than if the two samples are independent.
This modified procedure is known as a paired t-test. Most statistical software programs that
perform the Student's t-test have options to select for either a paired or unpaired analysis.

Table 3g-4: Critical values of Student's t-distribution (2-tailed).

Degrees P=0.10 P=0.05 P=0.02 P=0.01 P=0.001 Degrees

of of

Freedom Freedom
1 6.314 12.706 31.821 63.657 636.619 1
2 2.920 4.303 6.965 9.925 31.598 2
3 2.353 3.182 4.541 5.841 12.924 3
4 2.132 2.776 3.747 4.604 8.610 4
5 2.015 2.571 3.365 4.032 6.869 5
6 1.943 2.447 3.143 3.707 5.959 6
7 1.895 2.365 2.998 3.499 5.408 7
8 1.860 2.306 2.896 3.355 5.041 8
9 1.833 2.262 2.821 3.250 4.781 9
10 1.812 2.228 2.764 3.169 4.587 10
11 1.796 2.201 2.718 3.106 4.437 11
12 1.782 2.179 2.681 3.055 4.318 12
13 1.771 2.160 2.650 3.012 4.221 13
14 1.761 2.145 2.624 2.977 4.140 14
15 1.753 2.131 2.602 2.947 4.073 15
16 1.746 2.120 2.583 2.921 4.015 16
17 1.740 2.110 2.567 2.898 3.965 17
18 1.734 2.101 2.552 2.878 3.922 18

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19 1.729 2.093 2.539 2.861 3.883 19


20 1.725 2.086 2.528 2.845 3.850 20
21 1.721 2.080 2.518 2.831 3.819 21
22 1.717 2.074 2.508 2.819 3.792 22
23 1.714 2.069 2.500 2.807 3.767 23
24 1.711 2.064 2.492 2.797 3.745 24
25 1.708 2.060 2.485 2.787 3.725 25
26 1.706 2.056 2.479 2.779 3.707 26
27 1.703 2.052 2.473 2.771 3.690 27
28 1.701 2.048 2.467 2.763 3.674 28
29 1.699 2.045 2.462 2.756 3.659 29
30 1.697 2.042 2.457 2.750 3.646 30
40 1.684 2.021 2.423 2.704 3.551 40
60 1.671 2.000 2.390 2.660 3.460 60
120 1.658 1.980 2.358 2.617 3.373 120

(h). Inferential Statistics: Regression and Correlation

Introduction

Regression and correlation analysis are statistical techniques used extensively in physical
geography to examine causal relationships between variables. Regression and correlation
measure the degree of relationship between two or more variables in two different but related
ways. In regression analysis, a single dependent variable, Y, is considered to be a function of
one or more independent variables, X1, X2, and so on. The values of both the dependent and
independent variables are assumed as being ascertained in an error-free random manner.
Further, parametric forms of regression analysis assume that for any given value of the
independent variable, values of the dependent variable are normally distributed about some
mean. Application of this statistical procedure to dependent and independent variables
produces an equation that "best" approximates the functional relationship between the data
observations.

Correlation analysis measures the degree of association between two or more variables.
Parametric methods of correlation analysis assume that for any pair or set of values taken
under a given set of conditions, variation in each of the variables is random and follows a
normal distribution pattern. Utilization of correlation analysis on dependent and independent
variables produces a statistic called the correlation coefficient (r). The square of this
statistical parameter (the coefficient of determination or r2) describes what proportion of the
variation in the dependent variable is associated with the regression of an independent
variable.

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Analysis of variance is used to test the significance of the variation in the dependent variable
that can be attributed to the regression of one or more independent variables. Employment of
this statitical procedure produces a calculated F-value that is compared to a critical F-values
for a particular level of statistical probability. Obtaining a significant calculated F-value
indicates that the results of regression and correlation are indeed true and not the consequence
of chance.

Simple Linear Regression

In a simple regression analysis, one dependent variable is examined in relation to only one
independent variable. The analysis is designed to derive an equation for the line that best
models the relationship between the dependent and independent variables. This equation has
the mathematical form:

Y = a + bX

where, Y is the value of the dependent variable, X is the value of the independent variable, a
is the intercept of the regression line on the Y axis when X = 0, and b is the slope of the
regression line.

The following table contains randomly collected data on growing season precipitation and
cucumber yield (Table 3h-1). It is reasonable to suggest that the amount of water received on
a field during the growing season will influence the yield of cucumbers growing on it. We
can use this data to illustate how regression analysis is carried out. In this table, precipitation
is our independent variable and is not affected by variation in cucumber yield. However,
cucumber yield is influenced by precipitation, and is therefore designated as the Y variable in
the analysis.

Table 3h-1: Cucumber yield vs precipitation data for 62


observations.

Precipitation Cucumbers Precipitation Cucumbers

mm (X) kilograms per m2 mm (X) kilograms per m2


(Y) (Y)
22 .36 103 .74
6 .09 43 .64
93 .67 22 .50
62 .44 75 .39
84 .72 29 .30
14 .24 76 .61
52 .33 20 .29

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69 .61 29 .38
104 .66 50 .53
100 .80 59 .58
41 .47 70 .62
85 .60 81 .66
90 .51 93 .69
27 .14 99 .71
18 .32 14 .14
48 .21 51 .41
37 .54 75 .66
67 .70 6 .18
56 .67 20 .21
31 .42 36 .29
17 .39 50 .56
7 .25 9 .13
2 .06 2 .10
53 .47 21 .18
70 .55 17 .17
6 .07 87 .63
90 .69 97 .66
46 .42 33 .18
36 .39 20 .06
14 .09 96 .58
60 .54 61 .42

X = 3,050

= 49.1935

 Y = 26.62

= 0.4294

n = 62

Often the first step in regression analysis is to plot the X and Y data on a graph (Figure 3h-
1). This is done to graphically visualize the relationship between the two variables. If there is
a simple relationship, the plotted points will have a tendancy to form a recognizable pattern (a

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straight line or curve). If the relationship is strong, the pattern will be very obvious. If the
relationship is weak, the points will be more spread out and the pattern less distinct. If the
points appear to fall pretty much at random, there may be no relationship between the two
variables.

Figure 3h-1: Scattergram plot of the precipitation and cucumber yield data found in Table
3h-1. The distribution of the data points indicates a possible positive linear relationship
between the two variables.

The type of pattern (straight line, parabolic curve, exponential curve, etc.) will determine the
type of regression model to be applied to the data. In this particular case, we will examine
data that produces a simple straight-line relationship (see Figure 3h-1). After selecting the
model to be used, the next step is to calculate the corrected sums of squares and products
used in a bivariate linear regression analysis. In the following equations, capital letters
indicate uncorrected values of the variables and lower-case letters are used for the corrected
parameters in the analysis.

The corrected sum of squares for Y:

 y2 =  Y2 -

= (0.362 + 0.092 + ... + 0.422) - (26.622) / 62

= 2.7826

The corrected sum of squares for X:

 x2 =  X2 -

= (222 + 62 + ... + 612) - (3,0502) / 62

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= 59,397.6775

The corrected sum of products:

 xy =  (XY) -

= ((22)(.36) + (6)(.09) + ... + (61)(.42)) - ((26.62)(3,050)) / 62

= 354.1477

As discussed earlier, the general form of the equation for a straight line is Y = a + bX. In this
equation, a and b are constants or regression coefficients that are estimated from the data set.
Based on the mathematical procedure of least squares, the best estimates of these coefficients
are:

= (354.1477) / (59,397.6775) = 0.0060

a = Y - bX = 0.42935 - (0.0060)(49.1935) = 0.1361

Substituting these estimates into the general linear equation suggests the following
relationship between the Y and X variables:

= 0.1361 + 0.0060X

where indicates that we are using an estimated value of Y.

With this equation, we can estimate the the number of cucumbers (Y) from the measurements
of precipitation (X) and describe this relationship on our scattergram with a best fit straight-
line (Figure 3h-2). Because Y is estimated from a known value of X, it is called the
dependent variable and X the independent variable. In plotting the data in a graph, the
values of Y are normally plotted along the vertical axis and the values of X along the
horizontal axis.

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Figure 3h-2: Scattergram plot of the precipitation and cucumber yield data and the
regression model best fit straight-line describing the linear relationship between the
two variables.

Regression Analysis and ANOVA

A regression model can be viewed of as a type of moving average. The regression equation
attempts to explain the relationship between the Y and X variables through linear association.
For a particular value of X, the regression model provides us with an estimated value of Y.
Yet, Figure 3h-2 indicates that many of the plotted values of the actual data are observed to
be above the regression line while other values are found below it. These variations are
caused either by sampling error or the fact that some other unexplained independent variable
influences the individual values of the Y variable.

The corrected sum of squares for Y (i.e.,  y2) determines the total amount of variation that
occurs with the individual observations of Y about the mean estimate of . The amount of
variation in Y that is directly related with the regression on X is called the regression sum of
squares. This value is calculated accordingly:

Regression SS = = (354.1477)2 / (59,397.6775) = 2.1115

As discussed above, the total variation in Y is determined by  y2 = 2.7826. The amount of


the total variation in Y that is not associated with the regression is termed the residual sum of
squares. This statistical paramter is calculated by subtracting the regression sum of squares
from the corrected sum of squares for Y ( y2):

Residual SS =  y2 - Regression SS

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= 2.7826 - 2.1115

= 0.6711

The unexplained variation can now be used as a standard for testing the amount of variation
attributable to the regression. Its significance can be tested with the F test from calculations
performed in an Analysis of Variance table.

Source of variation df 1 SS MS 2
Due to regression 1 2.1115 2.1115
Residual (unexplained) 60 0.6711 0.0112
Total 61 2.7826 -

1 There were 62 values of Y analyzed and therefore n = 62. The total sum of squares degrees
of freedom (df) is determined as n-1 or 61. The regression of Y on X has 1 degree of
freedom. The residual or unexplained degrees of freedom is determined by subtracting
regression df (1) from total sum of squares df (61).

2 MS is calculated as SS / df.

Using the Analysis of Variance procedure, the regression is tested by determining the
calculated F statistic:

F = (Regression MS) / (Residual SS) = (2.1115) / (0.0112) = 188.86

To test this statistic we use a table of F to determine a critical test value for a probability of
0.01 or 1% (this relationship can occur by chance only in 1 out 100 cases) and with 1,60
degrees of freedom. According to the table the critical test value is 7.1. In this test, the
relationship is deemed significant if the calculated F statistic is greater than the critical test
value. This regression is statistically significant at the 0.01 level because 188.86 is greater
than 7.1.

Caution must be taken when interpreting the results of regression. In our example, we found a
significant relationship between precipitation and cucumber yield. However, this conclusion
may not be the result of a causal relationship between the two variables. A third variable that
is directly associated to both precipitation and cucumber yield may be confounding the
interpretation of the analysis. Absolute verification of associations between variables can
only be confirmed with experimental manipulation.

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Coefficient of Determination

To measure how strong the correlation is between the two variables, we can determine the
amount of the total variation in Y that is associated with the regression model. This ratio is
sometimes called the coefficient of determination and is represented by the symbol r2. The
value of the coefficient of determination ranges from 1.00 to 0.00. The calculated coefficient
of determination from the data set above was 0.76 or 76% (as calculated below). This value
suggests that 76% of the variation in Y was associated with the change seen X from the data
set observations.

Coefficient of determination = (Regression SS) / (Total SS)

= (2.1115) / (2.7826) = 0.7588

Correlation Coefficient

Another useful regression statistic that measures the strength of the correlation between to
variables is the correlation coefficient.This statistic is often represented by the symbol "r"
and is determined by taking the square-root of the coefficient of determination. The value of
the correlation coefficient ranges from 1.00 to -1.00. A value of 0.0 indicates that there is
absolutely no relationship between the X and Y variables. The strength of the relationship
between the X and Y variables increases as the value of r approaches 1.00 and -1.00. Perfect
correlation occurs if r equals either 1.00 (perfect positive) or -1.00 (perfect negative). Positive
correlation coefficients indicate that an increase in the value of the X variable results in an
increase in the value of the Y variable. Negative correlation coefficients indicate that an
increase in the value of the X variable results in a decrease in the value of the Y variable.

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