Rafael Antonio U.

Esquillo Problem Set 1 – Estimation BSE43

MATH123e – Advanced Statistics Prelim
1) What is the point estimate for µ? And what is the point estimate for p?

The point estimate for population mean 𝜇 is the corresponding sample mean (𝑥̅ ).
The point estimate for the population proportion (𝑝) is the sample proportion (𝑝̂ ).

2) List two condition that need to be checked before estimating µ with the z or t distribution:

In constructing the confidence interval for the population mean (𝜇) with either the
z or t distribution, (1) the sampling procedure must be simple random sampling and (2) the
sampling distribution must be normally distributed (stattrek.com).

3) List the two conditions that need to be met in order to estimate p using the z distribution:

In order to construct a confidence interval for a population proportion 𝑝 using the

z distribution, the sample must be (1) from a simple random sampling procedure and (2)
sufficiently large – it must include at least 10 successes and 10 failures (stattrek.com).

4) In a time use study 20 randomly selected managers were found to spend a mean time of
2.4 hours per day on paperwork. The standard deviation of the 20 scores was 1.30 hours.
Construct a 98% confidence interval for the mean time spent on paperwork by all
managers.

Use t distribution since population standard deviation (𝜎) is not given.

𝑛 = 20 𝑥̅ = 2.4 𝑠 = 1.30
𝛼
𝛼 = 0.02 = 0.01 𝑑𝑓 = 20 − 1 = 19 𝑡0.01 = 2.539
2

𝑠 𝑠
𝑥̅ − 𝑡𝑎 < 𝜇 < 𝑥̅ + 𝑡𝑎
2 √𝑛 2 √𝑛
1.30 1.30
2.4 − (2.539) < 𝜇 < 2.4 + 2.539
√20 √20
𝟏. 𝟔𝟔 < 𝝁 < 𝟑. 𝟏𝟒

One can be 98% confident that the true mean time spent on paperwork of all
managers lies within 1.66 and 3.14 hours.

5) A random sample of 19 women results in a mean height of 63.85 inches. It is known from
other studies have shown that women’s heights are normally distributed with a standard
deviation of 2.5 inches. Construct a 90% confidence interval for the mean height of all
women. Interpret CI.

Use t distribution since sample size n is small.

𝑛 = 19 𝑥̅ = 63.85 𝜎 = 2.5
𝛼
𝛼 = 0.1 = 0.05 𝑑𝑓 = 𝑛 − 1 = 18 𝑡𝛼 = 1.734
2 2
Rafael Antonio U. Esquillo Problem Set 1 – Estimation BSE43
MATH123e – Advanced Statistics Prelim
𝑠 𝑠
𝑥̅ − 𝑡𝑎 < 𝜇 < 𝑥̅ + 𝑡𝑎
2 √𝑛 2 √𝑛
2.5 2.5
63.85 − (1.734) < 𝜇 < 63.85 + (1.734)
√19 √19
𝟔𝟐. 𝟖𝟓𝟓 < 𝝁 < 𝟔𝟒. 𝟖𝟒𝟓

One can be 90% confident that the true mean height of women lies between 62.855
and 64.845 inches, based on a sample of 19.

6) In a Time/CNN telephone poll of 1012 adult Americans, 11% of the respondents said that
Ronald Regan was a great president. Give a 98% confidence interval for the proportion of
all adult Americans who think that Regan was a great president. Interpret CI.

𝑛 = 1012 𝑝̂ = 0.11 𝑞̂ = 1 − 𝑝̂ = 0.89

𝛼
𝛼 = 0.02 = 0.01 𝑧𝛼 = 2.33
2 2

𝑝̂ 𝑞̂ 𝑝̂ 𝑞̂
𝑝̂ − 𝑧𝛼 √ < 𝑝 < 𝑝̂ + 𝑧𝛼 √
2 𝑛 2 𝑛

(0.11)(0.89) (0.11)(0.89)
0.11 − (2.33)√ < 𝑝 < 0.11 + (2.33)√
1012 1012
𝟎. 𝟎𝟖𝟕 < 𝒑 < 𝟎. 𝟏𝟑𝟑

One can be 98% confident that the true percentage of respondents saying that Reagan
was a great president is between 8.7 and 13.3 %.

7) A random sample of 50, eight-ounce cups of black “Early Riser” coffee dispensed by a
new machine gave a mean of 11.0 mg. of caffeine. It is known from previous studies that
the standard deviation for eight oz. cups of black “Early Riser” coffee dispensed by this
machine was 7.1 mg. Construct a 90% confidence interval for , the mean caffeine content
for cups dispensed by this machine. How large a sample is needed if want to be 98% that
the error will not exceed by 0.25 mg. in estimating the mean

a) Construct a 90% confidence interval for , the mean caffeine content for cups
dispensed by this machine.

Use z distribution since population standard deviation (𝜎) is given and sample size is large.
𝛼
𝛼 = 0.1 = 0.05 𝑧𝛼 = −1.65 = 1.65
2 2
𝑛 = 50 𝑥̅ = 11.0 𝜎 = 7.1
𝜎 𝜎
𝑥̅ − 𝑧𝑎 < 𝜇 < 𝑥̅ + 𝑧𝑎
2 √𝑛 2 √𝑛
Rafael Antonio U. Esquillo Problem Set 1 – Estimation BSE43
MATH123e – Advanced Statistics Prelim
7.1 7.1
11.0 − (1.65) < 𝜇 < 11.0 + (1.65)
√50 √50
𝟗. 𝟑𝟒 < 𝝁 < 𝟏𝟐. 𝟔𝟔

One can say with 90% confidence that the true mean caffeine content of the cups lies
within 9.34 and 12.66 mg.

b) How large a sample is needed if want to be 98% that the error will not exceed by 0.25
mg. in estimating the mean?
𝛼
𝛼 = 0.02 = 0.01 𝑧𝛼 = 2.33 = 2.33
2 2
𝜎 = 7.1 𝑒 = 0.25

𝜎 2
𝑛 = (𝑧𝛼 )
2 𝑒
(2.33)(7.1) 2
𝑛=( )
0.25
𝑛 = 4,378.73
𝒏 = 𝟒, 𝟑𝟕𝟗

8) In a Roper poll of 3000 working men, 56% said “they feel guilty that they don’t spend
more time with their families.” Construct a 98% confidence interval for the proportion of
all working men who hold this view. Interpret CI. How large a sample is needed if the error
will not exceed by 0.5% in estimating the true proportion (use 95% level of confidence)

a) Construct a 98% confidence interval for the proportion of all working men who hold
this view. Interpret CI.
𝛼
𝛼 = 0.02 = 0.01 𝑧𝛼 = 2.33
2 2
𝑝̂ = 0.56 𝑞̂ = 0.44 𝑛 = 3000

𝑝̂ 𝑞̂ 𝑝̂ 𝑞̂
𝑝̂ − 𝑧𝛼 √ < 𝑝 < 𝑝̂ + 𝑧𝛼 √
2 𝑛 2 𝑛

(0.56)(0.44) (0.56)(0.44)
0.56 − (2.33)√ < 𝑝 < 0.56 + (2.33)√
3000 3000

(0.56)(0.44) (0.56)(0.44)
0.56 − (2.33)√ < 𝑝 < 0.56 + (2.33)√
3000 3000
𝟎. 𝟓𝟑𝟗 < 𝒑 < 𝟎. 𝟓𝟖𝟏

One can say with 98% confidence that the true proportion of all working men who
fell guilty in not spending more time with their families lies within 53.9 and 58.1 %.
Rafael Antonio U. Esquillo Problem Set 1 – Estimation BSE43
MATH123e – Advanced Statistics Prelim

b) How large a sample is needed if the error will not exceed by 0.5% in estimating the
true proportion (use 95% level of confidence)

𝑧𝛼 2
𝑛 = 𝑝̂ 𝑞̂ ( 2 )
𝐸
2.33 2
𝑛 = (0.56)(0.44) ( )
0.005
𝑛 = 53,507.2
𝒏 = 𝟓𝟑, 𝟓𝟎𝟖