Morning Review - 102810

Nicholas Colas (Chief Market Strategist): 212 448 6095 or ncolas@convergex.
com
Christine Clark: 212 448 6085 or cclark@convergex.com
Beth Reed: 212 448 6096 or breed@convergex.com
Stocks closed mixed Wednesday after spending much of the day in negative territory amid speculation
Morning Markets Briefing
the Fed may not provide as much economic stimulus as previously expected (S&P 500 -0.3%, Dow
-0.4%, Nasdaq +0.2%). A WSJ article said the central bank’s debt purchases may amount to several
Market Commentary: October 28th, 2010
hundred billion dollars over a few months, which would come up shy of estimates ranging from $500
billion to $1 trillion. On the economic front, new home sales rose more-than-predicted in September, A snapshot of the markets through the
advancing 6.6% to an annual pace of 307K units. Meanwhile, orders for durable goods increased 3.3% lens of ConvergEx.
last month after a decline of 1.3% in August, and mortgage applications for purchasing and refinancing
posted a gain last week as fixed-term mortgages sported near-record low interest rates.
Correlations Between Fruit Flies and Market Rallies
Summary: Rallies in the equity markets seem to die premature deaths, so we have pulled forward our customary monthly analysis of asset price correlations a few days
to assess what the recent updraft in equities means to price movements. After all, who knows how long the good times will roll? Good news here – October’s rally was
accompanied by modest but perceptible moves lower for industry correlations in stocks. That’s a healthy sign, as this increases the amount of diversification available to
equity investors. If there is a cautionary lesson from the October data, it is that the overarching fundamental of dollar weakness pushed precious metals correlations
higher with respect to financial assets. That should correct itself over time, but in the near term any dollar strength could leave both stocks (financial assets) and precious
metals (physical assets) moving lower in a coordinated fashion.
Fruit flies (drosophilia melanogaster to you Classics buffs out there) are extremely useful to scientists because they die quickly. More accurately, they are born,
grow, breed and die in just a few weeks, which make them ideal organisms to test theories of genetic mutation. You wouldn’t think that a little fly has much in common
with people, but they share about 75% of all known human disease genes and researchers use them to assess treatments for everything from Parkinson’s to drug
addiction. Their short life spans allow scientists to quickly assess genetic mutations in the offspring of treated flies, rather than waiting weeks or months longer for other
lab animals to go through a life cycle.
Market rallies in 2010 have had about the same longevity as the average fruit fly (or so it seems), so I have pulled up our customary monthly analysis of asset
price correlations by a few days to put the September-October move under the microscope. There is mostly good news in the data, but a cautious note or two. We
have attached our customary charts and table to this report, and they provide additional useful color to the points we’ll make below.
Market Commentary – Pages 1-4, Equities/Conferences & Earnings – Page 5, Fixed Income – Page 6, Options – Page 7, Exchange-Traded Funds/Indexes – Page 8, Social
Media & Internet Blogs Top Stories – Page 9
11
©2010 BNY ConvergEx Executi`on Solutions LLC. May not be redistributed without express permission. All rights reserved
Nicholas Colas (Chief Market Strategist): 212 448 6095 or ncolas@convergex.com
The good news is that industry sector correlations have dropped again in October for U.S. stocks. The chief reason to invest in a diversified portfolio of assets like
equities is because not all of them move together at the same time. For much of the year, however, correlations among the 10 major industrial sectors of the market
have been inordinately elevated, especially during market declines. That is especially damaging to investors, since there is essentially “nowhere to hide.”
Our data from October’s trading shows that correlations for the likes of tech, energy, industrials and other groups dropped for the second straight month when
compared to overall market action. Only Health Care actually increased its correlation to the S&P 500. Granted, correlations by definition only go to 100%, and many
industry groups were in the +90% camp just 3 months ago. But a rally accompanied by lower correlations is cause for optimism, and we’ll take it.
If there is a source of concern it is that the weakness of the dollar has clearly fueled the risk asset rally of the last 2 months. That much is visible from the sharply
higher correlations between precious metals and stocks in October. Gold, for example, is only priced in dollars so it is a good proxy for concerns over dollar weakness.
Precious metals have been winning investments because investors are looking for ways to hedge potential volatility in financial assets. If they are, in the near term, tied
at the proverbial “dollar-hip,” any move higher for the greenback might spell a common pullback for both.
I will close out this brief note with one additional, if geeky, point: there appears to be a strong correlation, if not causation, between the CBOE VIX Index and
the average correlation among U.S. equity industry groups. Over the past year the correlation between “Fear” (as measured by the VIX) and how much the 10
industrial sectors track the market exceeds 60%. In other words, as the benefits of diversification wane (correlations increase), the price of insurance in the options
market tends to rise. That makes sense, since rising correlations make sell offs even harder to bear with every stock in a portfolio more likely to be down together.
2
Historical 30-Days Correlation Against S&P 500

Name Symbol Current 1 Month Ago 2 Months Ago 3 Months Ago Change in absolute correlation* Change in absolute correlation* Change in absolute correlation*
(10/26/10) (10/1/10) (8/31/10) (07/30/10) from 1 mo ago from 1 mo ago to 2 mos ago from 2 mos ago to 3 mos ago
Energy XLE 86.25% 91.12% 92.95% 94.56% 4.87 1.83 1.61

Health XLV 90.70% 87.03% 82.26% 86.13% 3.67 4.77 3.87
Industrials XLI 90.66% 95.63% 94.90% 95.73% 4.97 0.73 0.83
Utilities XLU 61.47% 71.02% 81.42% 83.28% 9.55 10.40 1.86
Consumer Staples XLP 84.38% 87.14% 88.43% 83.14% 2.76 1.29 5.29
Telecomm IYZ 84.72% 87.42% 92.46% 90.93% 2.70 5.04 1.53
Technology XLK 88.57% 93.78% 95.11% 95.99% 5.21 1.33 0.88
Consumer Discretionary XLY 91.56% 96.97% 93.88% 95.25% 5.41 3.09 1.37
Financials XLF 85.24% 95.45% 97.72% 94.16% 10.21 2.27 3.56
Materials XLB 79.11% 86.67% 90.50% 89.96% 7.56 3.83 0.54
Gold GLD 57.49% -13.44% 13.34% 20.11% 70.93 26.78 6.77

Silver SLV 57.33% 14.83% 43.75% 43.19% 42.50 28.92 0.56
EAFE Index EFA 90.47% 94.42% 92.92% 92.15% 3.95 1.50 0.77
Emerging Markets EEM 81.74% 90.55% 91.37% 88.40% 8.81 0.82 2.97
Australian Dollar FXA 64.11% 83.38% 79.13% 86.78% 19.27 4.25 7.65
Euro FXE 55.17% 47.27% 60.59% 30.84% 7.90 13.32 29.75
Japanese Yen FXY 2.94% -41.41% -40.61% -50.33% 44.35 0.80 9.72
High Yield Corporate Bond HYG 40.54% 46.12% 61.11% 86.12% 5.58 14.99 25.01
Investment Grade Bond LQD -2.80% -68.98% -42.55% -13.35% 66.18 26.43 29.20
*Red indicates increasing correlation; green indicates decreasing correlation
Source: IVolatility.com
3
4
U.S. EQUITIES
Energy and materials fell for a second day as the dollar index rose 0.5% and oil prices snapped a 3-day win streak, while COP slid -1.2% in light of higher
commodities prices and improved refining margins, despite posting 3rd quarter earnings that nearly doubled. Elsewhere in earnings news, S sank 9.9%
after reporting better subscriber numbers but a wider quarterly loss, and retailer JNY (-21.2%) plunged on weaker-than-expected net income and sharply
rising cotton prices. On the tech front, AAPL (-0.1%) again delayed the release of its white iPhone, this time until spring 2011. Aimed to rival AMZN’s
(-1.4%) Kindle, BKS (-0.1%) unveiled a color touch screen version of its Nook electronic reader.
Important Earnings Today (with Estimates) From… S&P Futures

MMM: $1.51 CRI: $0.74 DRE: $0.26 HS: $0.82 MFE: $0.51 OSK: $1.38 One Day (High –1186.25; Low – 1167.75):
NLY: $0.67 CELG: $0.64 EK: $-0.31 IART: $0.66 MJN: $0.57 PNW: $2.01
AN: $0.42 CEPH: $1.79 EMN: $2.22 IRM: $0.29 MET: $1.03 QSFT: $0.32
SHAW: $0.56 CLF: $2.59 EVR: $0.34 KBR: $0.43 MSFT: $0.55 RTN: $1.13
AVP: $0.47 CME: $3.66 EXPE: $0.55 LLL: $2.02 MCRS: $0.34 RGC: $0.08
BLL: $1.43 CMS: $0.45 XOM: $1.40 LEA: $1.06 MWW: $0.00 WM: $0.59
UTHR: $0.54 CCE: $0.54 FII: $0.38 LPS: $0.89 MCO: $0.46 REV: $0.42
BX: $0.25 CL: $1.19 FSLR: $1.96 LVLT: $-0.11 MOT: $0.10 HOT: $0.22
BMC: $0.61 VRSN: $0.22 FO: $0.74 LZ: $2.65 NBL: $0.81 SUN: $0.44
BC: $-0.32 DOW: $0.41 BEN: $1.74 CLI: $0.68 OMX: $0.12 TEL: $0.70
CAH: $0.53 DUK: $0.42 GNW: $0.25 MXIM: $0.37 OCR: $0.49 XEL: $0.54
Source: Bloomberg
Important Conferences/Corporate Meetings Today:
None
Prior Day SPX (High – 1183.84; Low – 1171.70; Close – 1182.45): Three Day (High – 1193.00; Low – 1167.75):
Source: Thomson ONE

5
FIXED INCOME
Ten-year Treasury notes declined for a 6th consecutive day, the longest losing streak in roughly 2 years, after new home sales rose more than expected
and amid speculation the Fed may be more conservative with its monetary easing strategy than previously anticipated. Benchmark yields rose 8 bps to
2.72%, while 30-year yields added 6 bps to end the day at 4.05% and 2-year rates were little changed at 0.41%. Meanwhile, the government’s $35 billion
5-year note auction drew a yield of 1.330% and saw coverage of 2.82 times, lower than at September’s sale but higher than the average of 2.76 times
over the past 10 offerings.
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
Today’s Important Economic Indicators/Events (with Consensus):

Jobless Claims (8:30am EST): 455K
EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30am EST)
6
U.S. EQUITY
OPTIONS
SPX – The underlying index ended little changed on the day (-0.3 %) recovering late in the day from a mild selloff (-1.1% intraday). Although the implied volatility, as measured by the
VIX, popped a bit on the early selloff in the underlying index (+11 %), this was largely reversed as the underling rally muted the uncertainties expressed in rising premiums, as the VIX
ended +2 %. Trading in SPX options was mixed, with some notable bearish trades in both out of the money calls and puts. The December 1250 calls were sold 8,000 times @ $5.90. In a
couple of ‘disaster put trades’ , the January 750 puts were bought 5,000 times: half @ $0.80 and half @$0.85. The November 875 were also bought about 10,000 times @ $0.15. Also, The
was also a calendar put spread were the December 900 puts were sold for $1.00 vs. buying the January 800 puts @ $1.20, 7,000 times (approximately delta neutral).
ETF- The market traded in negative territory throughout the day and the VIX managed to come in after reaching its highs midday. In broad-based products we highlight a large print in UUP
(US Dollar Index Bullish Fund) as paper bought 55,400 Mar 23 calls and 105,500 Mar 24 calls in what was a bullish call stupid. In other trading we saw a bearish trade in XLK (Technology) as
one investor rolled a long put spread; the Dec 23/20 put spread was sold roughly 110,000 times while the Mar 23/20 put spread was bought roughly 150,000 times. In other sector flow we
saw an investor position for upside in XLF (Financial) through the outright purchase of the Dec 15 calls 50,000 times. Lastly in the international space, EEM (Emerging Markets) saw a
volatility seller through the Jan12 50 / 35 put spread delta neutral, while in EFA an investor sold the Dec 59 calls 14,000 times.
CURRENT IMPLIED VOLATILITY / CURRENT HISTORICAL VOLATILITY

Rank 10/21/2010 10/22/2010 10/25/2010 10/26/2010 10/27/2010 30-Day Implied Vol
1 MFE MFE MFE MFE MFE 6.07
2 DTV MKC MKC PTV PTV 7.36
3 RSH PNW DTV MKC DTV 20.87 BIGGEST MOVERS
4 MYL DTV MJN DTV PNW 33.75 Top 10 30-Day Implied Vol Bottom 10 30-Day Implied Vol
5 MJN GENZ GENZ PNW SYMC 46.41 CCE 530.72% 24.44 MKC -53.21% 17.15
6 EFX MJN SYMC XEL VAR 27.90 AVP 32.24% 50.99 XEL -46.10% 17.09
7 SYMC RSH MYL SYMC GENZ 17.05 RHI 25.80% 35.40 BRCM -45.88% 31.77
8 PTV MYL CEPH GENZ CEPH 34.32 DTE 25.74% 18.52 LIFE -44.61% 23.95
9 CHRW SYMC CHRW VAR ORLY 31.29 MDP 21.91% 36.25 MCK -42.58% 23.63
10 BMC CEPH K CHRW K 19.25 FDX 19.23% 28.82 S -32.29% 45.43
11 VAR Q VAR CEPH MA 33.77 GME 15.87% 40.06 MOLX -31.83% 31.47
12 CA CHRW TJX MYL FSLR 51.38 KG 13.95% 8.26 MYL -25.41% 29.02
13 CEPH VAR SJM MJN MJN 34.57 ESRX 13.53% 33.24 CHRW -24.06% 21.49
14 MDP ORLY ORLY K EIX 18.71 CEG 13.22% 32.75 NVLS -21.44% 30.54
15 K MDP PTV MA PCG 20.76
16 GENZ VRSN VRSN ORLY TJX 26.15
17 Q BMC MDP PCG VRSN 30.98
18 SJM K BMC EIX BBY 31.83
19 VRSN PTV NRG SJM CFN 32.61 We ranked the S&P 500 companies from the highest to lowest 30 day implied to
20 AN HSP BBY TJX FII 28.67 historical volatility ratio. Above we identify the 10 most positive and negative
21 ORLY TJX COH NI SJM 22.33 movers.
22 CNP AN AN VRSN BMS 24.52
23 TJX SJM PCG BBY DHI 44.30
24 NI HRS FISV QCOM GME 40.06 The table to the left represents the 25 highest 30 day implied to historical
25 HRS HAR DHI FSLR QCOM 29.43 volatility ratios within the S&P 500 companies. The green represents names
new to the list while the red represents names that have fallen out.
PPL CA HAR DHI MKC
TSS EFX HRS FISV CHRW
EBAY CNP HSP AN MYL
MKC NI Q COH XEL
HSP RSH NRG NI
PNW BMC
MDP
7
Exchange-Traded Funds/Indexes
Prior Day Peformance of Largest ETFs by Assets S&P 500 Sector ETFs
Name (Net Assets*) Ticker Category Daily Return Sector Ticker 1-Day Perf YTD Perf Sector Ticker 1-Day Perf YTD Perf
SPDRs SPY Large Blend -0.45% Energy XLE -0.42% 4.07% Telecomm IYZ -0.95% 9.14%
SPDR Gold Shares GLD N/A -1.04% Health XLV -0.61% 0.16% Technology XLK 0.33% 6.06%
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index EEM Diversified Emerging Mkts -1.70% Industrials XLI -0.74% 15.87% Consumer Discretionary XLY -0.62% 17.94%
iShares MSCI EAFE Index EFA Foreign Large Blend -0.96% Utilities XLU -0.41% 1.84% Financials XLF 0.07% 1.25%
iShares S&P 500 Index IVV Large Blend -0.28% Consumer Staples XLP -0.52% 7.93% Materials XLB -0.95% 4.55%
Prior Day Top Volume ETFs Currency ETFs
Name Ticker Category Shares Traded Currency Ticker 1-Day Perf YTD Perf Currency Ticker 1-Day Perf YTD Perf
SPDRs SPY Large Blend 174,307,690 Australian Dollar FXA -1.32% 8.12% Mexican Peso FXM -0.21% 4.75%
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index EEM Diversified Emerging Mkts 68,764,762 British Pound Sterling FXB -0.46% -2.67% Swedish Krona FXS -0.70% 5.35%
Financial Select SPDR XLF Specialty - Financial 52,321,848 Canadian Dollar FXC -0.45% 1.92% Swiss Franc FXF -0.54% 4.20%
PowerShares QQQ QQQQ Large Growth 48,149,986 Euro FXE -0.63% -4.02% USD Index Bearish UDN -0.48% -1.13%
iShares Russell 2000 Index IWM Small Blend 46,775,639 Japanese Yen FXY -0.26% 13.56% USD Index Bullish UUP 0.58% -1.86%
Prior Day Top Performers VIX ETNs Fixed Income ETFs
Name Ticker Category Daily Return Name Ticker 1-Day Perf YTD Perf Bonds Ticker 1-Day Perf YTD Perf
Direxion Daily Semicondct Bull 3X Shares SOXL N/A 9.19% iPath S&P 500 VIX VXX 1.63% -61.46% Aggregate AGG -0.19% 4.71%
PowerShares DB Base Metals Dble Shrt ETN BOM Bear Market 7.51% Short-Term Futures ETN Investment Grade LQD -0.26% 7.24%
Direxion Daily China Bear 3X Shares CZI Bear Market 6.32% High Yield HYG -0.11% 3.20%
ProShares UltraShort MSCI Pacific ex-Jpn JPX Bear Market 5.49% iPath S&P 500 VIX VXZ 0.09% -2.45% 1-3 Year Treasuries SHY -0.05% 1.69%
Direxion Daily Emrg Mkts Bear 3X Shares EDZ Bear Market 5.11% Mid-Term Futures ETN 7-10 Year Treasuries IEF -0.58% 10.34%
20+ Year Treasuries TLT -0.88% 10.38%
Others
ETF Ticker 1-Day Perf YTD Perf ETF Ticker 1-Day Perf YTD Perf
Gold GLD -1.04% 20.70% Crude Oil USO -0.73% -9.83%
Silver SLV -0.95% 39.43% EAFE Index EFA -0.96% 2.37%
Natural Gas UNG 0.74% -45.93% Emerging Markets EEM -1.70% 10.12%
SPDRs SPY -0.45% 6.12%
Major Index Changes:

None
ETFs in the Headlines and Blogs:

The Problems with Physical Commodity ETFs - http://seekingalpha.com/article/232559-the-problems-with-physical-commodity-etfs
Why base-metal physical ETFs could be a bad deal - http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/10/27/384851/why-base-metal-physical-etfs-could-be-a-bad-deal/
8
Top Online Social Networking Stories
Latest Popular Digg.com Business News

Entitlement nation: More are living off tax revenues, and fewer are providing them - http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2010-09-21/news/ct-edit-benefits-
20100921_1_tax-policy-center-entitlement-levies
A shift toward working from home: Software makes it easier for companies, employees - http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2010-08-16/business/ct-biz-
0816-on-the-job-20100816_1_virtual-workers-telecommuting-yorkville-home
Chevy runs deep: 2010’s top 5 rebranding fails - http://www.mlive.com/auto/index.ssf/2010/10/chevy_runs_deep_and_2010s_top.html
Why Apple won’t buy Facebook – or Sony - http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2010/10/26/why-apple-wont-buy-facebook-or-sony/
Calculated Risk
DataQuick: California Mortgage Defaults Rise in Third Quarter - http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/10/dataquick-california-mortgage-defaults.html
Philly Fed September State Coincident Indexes - http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/10/philly-fed-september-state-coincident.html
ATA: Truck Tonnage Index increases in September: “Economy barely growing” - http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/10/ata-truck-tonnage-index-
increases-in.html
Real House Prices, Price-to-Rent Ratio - http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/10/real-house-prices-price-to-rent-ratio.html
The Wall Street Journal

Fed Gears Up for Stimulus - http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303891804575576533845166848.html
Putting a Price on Professors - http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703735804575536322093520994.html
The Big Picture

Is Google a Monopoly? - http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/10/is-google-a-monopoly/
Bespoke Investment Group

Netflix Headed to S&P 500? - http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2010/10/26/netflix-nflx-headed-to-sp-500.html
Revenue Beat Rates - http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2010/10/26/revenue-beat-rates.html
Bespoke’s Commodity Snapshot - http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2010/10/26/bespokes-commodity-snapshot.html
New 52-Week Highs by Sector - http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2010/10/26/new-52-week-highs-by-sector.html
The Baseline Scenario

Shape-Shifting Deficit Hawks - http://baselinescenario.com/2010/10/26/shape-shifting-deficit-hawks/
Zero Hedge
Greece Caught Lying by Eurostat Again, As Budget Deficit Revised from 3% Initially to Over 15% of GDP - http://www.zerohedge.com/article/greece-caught-
lying-eurostat-again-budget-deficit-revised-3-initially-over-15-gdp
Trading Olives and Feta Cheese for Submarines Is a Losing Proposition - http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-trading-olives-and-feta-cheese-
submarines-losing-proposition
9
GENERAL DISCLOSURES
This presentation discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends, or other broad-based economic, market or political conditions. It is provided for general
informational purposes only and should not be relied on for any other purpose. It is not, and is not intended to be, research, a recommendation or investment advice,
as it does not constitute substantive research or analysis, nor an offer to sell or the solicitation of offers to buy any BNY ConvergEx Execution Solutions LLC
(“ConvergEx”) product or service in any jurisdiction. It does not take into account the particular investment objectives, restrictions, tax and financial situations or other
needs of any specific client or potential client. In addition, the information is not intended to provide sufficient basis on which to make an investment decision. Please
consult with your financial and other advisors before buying or selling any securities or other assets. This presentation is for qualified investors and NOT for retail
investors.
Please be advised that options carry a high level of risk and are not suitable for all investors. To receive a copy of the Options Disclosure Document please contact the
ConvergEx Compliance Department at (800) 367-8998.
The opinions and information herein are current only as of the date appearing on the cover. ConvergEx has no obligation to provide any updates or changes to such
opinions or information. The economic and market assumptions and forecasts are subject to high levels of uncertainty that may affect actual performance. Such
assumptions and forecasts may prove untrue or inaccurate and should be viewed as merely representative of a broad range of possibilities. They are subject to
significant revision and may change materially as market, economic, political and other conditions change.
Past performance is not indicative of future results, which may vary significantly. The value of investments and the income derived from investments can go down as
well as up. Future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of principal may occur. The information and statements provided herein do not provide any assurance or
guarantee as to returns that may be realized from investments in any securities or other assets. This material does not purport to contain all of the information that an
interested party may desire and, in fact, provides only a limited view of a particular market.
The opinions expressed in this presentation are those of various authors, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of ConvergEx or its affiliates. This material has
been prepared by ConvergEx and is not a product, nor does it express the views, of other departments or divisions of BNY ConvergEx Group, LLC and its affiliates.
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Correlations Between Fruit Flies and Market Rallies

Historical 30-Days Correlation Against S&P 500

Energy XLE 86.25% 91.12% 92.95% 94.56% 4.87 1.83 1.61

Gold GLD 57.49% -13.44% 13.34% 20.11% 70.93 26.78 6.77

Important Earnings Today (with Estimates) From… S&P Futures

Source: Thomson ONE

Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

Today’s Important Economic Indicators/Events (with Consensus):

CURRENT IMPLIED VOLATILITY / CURRENT HISTORICAL VOLATILITY

Major Index Changes:

ETFs in the Headlines and Blogs:

Top Online Social Networking Stories

Latest Popular Digg.com Business News

The Wall Street Journal

The Big Picture

Bespoke Investment Group

The Baseline Scenario

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