DEMAND & SUPPLY OF ENERGY- INDIAN CONTEXT BY 2030

INTRODUCTION
Energy being a strategic commodity plays a significant role in economic development of a
country. Energy systems in India have evolved over last six decades along with country’s
economic development, supporting the aspiration of 1.2 billion people, within the framework
of democratic polity, globally integrated economy and environmentally sensitive regime.
Ever increasing demand of energy has posed tremendous pressure on its limited resources
and has necessitated optimum use of its resources. [1]

RESERVES AND POTENTIAL FOR GENERATION

1.1 Coal and Lignite

Coal deposits are mainly confined to eastern and south central parts of the country. The states
of Jharkhand, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, West Bengal, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana and
Maharashtra account for 98.58 % of the total coal reserves in the country. The State of
Jharkhand had the maximum share (26.29%) in the overall reserves of coal in the country as
on 31st March 2016 followed by the State of Odisha (24.58%) (Table 1.1).

As on 31.03.16, the estimated reserves of coal were 308.80 billion tonnes, an addition of
2.20 billion tonnes over the last year (Table 1.1). There has been an increase of 0.7% in the
estimated coal reserves during the year 2015-16 with Chattisgarh accounting for the
maximum increase of 2.05%. [2]

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DEMAND & SUPPLY OF ENERGY- INDIAN CONTEXT BY 2030

The estimated total reserves of lignite as on 31.03.16 was 44.59 billion Tonnes against
44.12 billion tonnes on 31.03.15

1.2 Petroleum and Natural gas

The estimated reserves of crude oil in India as on 31.03.2016 stood at 621.10 million
tonnes (MT) (Table 1.2) against 635.60 million tonnes on 31.03.2015.

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DEMAND & SUPPLY OF ENERGY- INDIAN CONTEXT BY 2030

Geographical distribution of Crude oil indicates that the maximum reserves are in the
Western Offshore (39.79%) followed by Assam (25.89%), whereas the maximum reserves of
Natural Gas are in the Eastern Offshore (36.79%) followed by Western offshore (23.95%).
[3]

There was decrease of 2.28% in the estimated reserve of crude oil for the country as a
whole during 2015-16 as compared to the position a year ago. During the same period,
estimated reserves of crude oil in Arunachal Pradesh, Rajasthan and Assam decreased by
44.75, 17.04 and 2.11 % respectively, while the same in Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh,
Gujarat, Western Offshore and Eastern Offshore increased by 18.42 %, 15.30% , 2.58%,
1.88% and 0.59% respectively.

The estimated reserves of Natural Gas in India as on 31.03.2016 stood at 1227.23 Billion

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DEMAND & SUPPLY OF ENERGY- INDIAN CONTEXT BY 2030

Cubic Meters (BCM) as against 1251.90 BCM as on 31.03.2015

1.3 Renewable energy sources

There is high potential for generation of renewable energy from various sources- wind,
solar, biomass, small hydro and cogeneration bagasse.

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DEMAND & SUPPLY OF ENERGY- INDIAN CONTEXT BY 2030

The total potential for renewable power generation in the country as on 31.03.16 is
estimated at 1198856 MW (Table 1.3). This includes wind power potential of 102788 MW
(8.57%) at 80m hub height, wind power potential of 302235 MW (25.21%) at 100 m hub
height, SHP (small-hydro power) potential of 19749 MW (1.65%), Biomass power of 17,538
MW (1.46%), 5000 MW (0.42%) from bagasse-based cogeneration in sugar mills, 2556 MW
(0.21%) from waste to energy and solar power potential of 748990 MW (62.48%).

The geographic distribution of the estimated potential of renewable power as on

31.03.2016 reveals that Rajasthan has the highest share of about 14% (167276 MW),
followed by Gujarat with 13% share (157158 MW) and Maharashtra with 10% share
(119893MW), mainly on account of solar power potential. [2]

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DEMAND & SUPPLY OF ENERGY- INDIAN CONTEXT BY 2030

Sankey Diagram (2015-16):

The concept of data visualization in the digital age has revived interest in a style of chart
called a Sankey diagram. This style of diagram makes it easy to see the dominant flows
within a system and highlights where losses occur.

The Sankey diagram is very useful tool to represent an entire input and output energy flow
in energy system after carrying out energy balance calculation. The thicker the line, the
greater the amount of energy involved.

The data of Energy Balance (Table 7.2) is used to construct the Sankey diagram, in which
flows of energy are traced from energy sources to end-use consumption. The resulting
diagram provides a convenient and clear snapshot of existing energy transformations in India
which can usefully be compared with a similar global analysis. It gives a basis for examining
and communicating future energy scenarios. [4]

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DEMAND & SUPPLY OF ENERGY- INDIAN CONTEXT BY 2030

PROPOSALS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF TECHNOLOGIES BY 2047

Level 1: Only a marginal improvement in T&D losses is assumed, which is currently at

22.69%on all India basis as of May 2013. Owing to financial losses of distribution utilities,
investments towards strengthening the grid are minimal and hence the reduction in T&D
losses would not be significant and will only reduce to 15.94% till 2047 out of which
distribution losses will be 10.94% and transmission loss will reduce to 5% following business
as usual approach. Level 2: Although the 14 Smart Grid pilot projects demonstrate the
benefits of Smart Grid technologies at the pilot scale, a pan India large-scale deployment of
Smart Grid technologies is assumed to happen at a relatively low rate. Projecting based on
conservative estimates of leveraging the Smart Grid technologies T&D losses would reduce
to approximately 11% by 2042 and will further reduce to 10% till 2047 out of which
transmission loss will be 4% and distribution loss will be 6% by 2047. [9]
Level 3: It is assumed that the investments are made as envisaged in the India Smart Grid
Roadmap1, towards achieving the stated goals of reduction in losses, demand response and
integration of renewable energy. Building on the success of the pilot projects, various
technologies are leveraged under a clean energy policy drive to achieve a financially viable
and sustainable Smart Grids. The T&D losses would reduce to below 12% by 2027 out of
which distribution losses will be 7% and transmission losses will be 5% and would reach
around the global benchmark of 7% by 2047 of which transmission losses will be 3% and
distribution losses will be 4%. Level 4: An aggressive drive is adopted by the dynamic 21st
century India, towards achieving sustainable economic growth, energy independence and
energy security. Reforms in the transmission and distribution sectors are carried out via
elimination of cross-subsidies, innovative and competitive tariff structures, increased private
participation in electricity business, electric vehicles, real-time energy markets, bi-directional
flow of electricity and prosumer enablement. The global benchmark of 7% T&D losses is
achieved by 2042 of which transmission losses will be 3% and distribution losses will be 4%
and maintained thereafter till 2047. [5]

CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE

Level 1: No planned generation plants with CCS till 2025 and rate of CCS technology
deployment will be less. Generation with CCS usage till 2025 will be negligible and will start

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DEMAND & SUPPLY OF ENERGY- INDIAN CONTEXT BY 2030

to increase but at very less pace due to lack of efficient and cheap technology, generation
with CCS usage will increase to 8GW till 2047.

Level 2: Generation with CCS usage will be deployed at a slow rate. India will follow
projections for US with some time lag. Generation with CCS in 2022 will be around 1 GW
and will reach to 35GW till 2047.

Level 3: The amount of CCS-equipped capacity will grow in India. The absolute growth rate
in capture-equipped capacity occurs between 2030 and 2040. Going by IEA road map for
CCS technology 2013, India will target generation capacity with CCS of 3 GW till 2022 and
will increase to 80GW till 2047.

Level 4: More generation plants with CCS technology will be deployed which will be result
of technology up gradation and reduction in capital requirement. India will begin constructing
their own demonstration scale facilities and considering more ambitious CCS projects. India
will target generation capacity with CCS of 5GW till 2022 and will increase to 90GW till
2047. [6]

Level 1: Renewable share in total energy mix in India is 12% of total installed capacity as on
May, 2013 and renewable energy capacity is expected to increase to 49 GW by 2022 and 91
GW by 2047. With limited investments in research and development of low cost Page | 28 10
15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Storage Capacity (GW) and efficient battery technologies, the cost
of batteries remain high resulting in less commercialization, poor adoption of battery storage.
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DEMAND & SUPPLY OF ENERGY- INDIAN CONTEXT BY 2030

Pumped storage hydro power continues to dominate the energy storage in India. Total grid
connected storage in India will be 5GW by 2022 of which pump hydro storage is just above 4
GW growing to 8GW by 2032 and 10GW by 2042 and 12GW by 2047. [10]

Level 2: Renewable share in total energy mix in India is expected to increase to 77 GW by

2022 and 466 GW by 2047. V2G (Vehicle to Grid) technologies will be maturing to offer
storage solutions as large fleet of connected EV’s (Electrical Vehicle’s) will operate in VPP
(Virtual Power Plant) mode. More share of pump storage will be developed. Various storage
technologies on pilot basis will be employed in test beds at various parts of India. Hybrid
solution of solar and batteries will be employed. Though the development of storage market
will be in rising trend but it will be at slower pace. Total grid connected storage in India will
be 10GW by 2022, growing to 15GW by 2032, 20GW by 2042 and 22GW by 2047.

Level 3: Renewable share in total energy mix in India is expected to increase to 91 GW by

2022 and 817 GW by 2047. In addition to new technologies envisaged for level 2, partnership
between India and other countries for smart grids and energy storage technologies will
emerge and brings out some new and low cost batteries with higher performance parameters.
Application of energy storage batteries on both the utility side and customer side (industrial
and commercial) of the meter. Wind farms uses CAES (compresses air energy storage) for
storage of energy during off peak hours, solar panel uses molten salt batteries for storage of
energy during their off peak hours. Opportunities for new project development and
manufacturing emerges in India. Telecom sector will also take a lead in replacing their diesel
generators with hybrid solution of solar and batteries. Total grid connected storage in India
will be 15GW by 2022, 25GW by 2032, 30GW by 2042 and 32GW by 2047.

Level 4: Renewable share in total energy mix in India is expected to increase to 120 GW by
2022 and 1402 GW by 2047. India will attain its potential of 20 GW by 2020. As per India
Smart Grid roadmap, micro grids will be implemented in 10,000 villages and 100 smart cities
till 2027, batteries will play a major role in these deployment. Wind mills will be integrated
with hydro pump storage systems to operate them. Flywheel technology for energy storage
will become mature with time and will be cost effective which will ultimately lead to more
commercialization of this technology. There will be opportunities for partnering with world
class manufacturing and system integration companies that can leverage domestic
manufacturing capabilities. Total grid connected storage in India will be 20GW by 2022,
growing to 30GW by 2032, 40GW by 2042 and 45GW by 2047. [9]

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