Data MA 2 Bulan Da

Demand(y)Forecast Error |Error| Error^2 |Pct Error|

1 550 1
2 450 2
3 350 500 -150 150 22500 0.43 3
4 600 400 200 200 40000 0.33 4
5 750 475 275 275 75625 0.37 5
6 500 675 -175 175 30625 0.35 6
7 400 625 -225 225 50625 0.56 7
8 650 450 200 200 40000 0.31 8
9 850 525 325 325 105625 0.38 9
10 650 750 -100 100 10000 0.15 10
11 450 750 -300 300 90000 0.67 11
12 700 550 150 150 22500 0.21 12
TOTALS 6900 200 2100 487500 3.77 TOTALS
AVERAGE 575 20 210 48750 0.38 AVERAGE
Next period forecast 575 (Bias) (MAD) (MSE) (MAPE) Next period forecast
Std err 246.86

Data MA 4 Bulan Da
Demand(y)Forecast Error |Error| Error^2 |Pct Error|
1 550 1
2 450 2
3 350 3
4 600 4
5 750 487.5 262.5 262.5 68906.25 0.35 5
6 500 537.5 -37.5 37.5 1406.25 0.08 6
7 400 550 -150 150 22500 0.38 7
8 650 562.5 87.5 87.5 7656.25 0.13 8
9 850 575 275 275 75625 0.32 9
10 650 600 50 50 2500 0.08 10
11 450 637.5 -187.5 187.5 35156.25 0.42 11
12 700 650 50 50 2500 0.07 12
TOTALS 6900 350 1100 216250 1.82 TOTALS
AVERAGE 575 43.75 137.5 27031.25 0.23 AVERAGE
Next period forecast 662.5 (Bias) (MAD) (MSE) (MAPE) Next period forecast
Std err 189.85

Data MA 6 Bulan Da
Demand(y)Forecast Error |Error| Error^2 |Pct Error|
1 550 1
2 450 2
3 350 3
4 600 4
 5 750 5
6 500 6
7 400 533.33 -133.33 133.33 17777.79 0.33 7
8 650 508.33 141.67 141.67 20069.44 0.22 8
9 850 541.67 308.33 308.33 95069.43 0.36 9
10 650 625 25 25 625 0.04 10
11 450 633.33 -183.33 183.33 33611.13 0.41 11
12 700 583.33 116.67 116.67 13611.12 0.17 12
TOTALS 6900 275 908.33 180763.9 1.53 TOTALS
AVERAGE 575 45.83 151.39 30127.31 0.25 AVERAGE
Next period forecast 616.67 (Bias) (MAD) (MSE) (MAPE) Next period forecast
Std err 212.58

Data WMA 2 Bulan Dat

Demand(y)Forecast Error |Error| Error^2 |Pct Error|
1 550 1
2 450 2
3 350 483.33 -133.33 133.33 17777.78 0.38 3
4 600 383.33 216.67 216.67 46944.45 0.36 4
5 750 516.67 233.33 233.33 54444.43 0.31 5
6 500 700 -200 200 40000 0.4 6
7 400 583.33 -183.33 183.33 33611.13 0.46 7
8 650 433.33 216.67 216.67 46944.45 0.33 8
9 850 566.67 283.33 283.33 80277.77 0.33 9
10 650 783.33 -133.33 133.33 17777.79 0.21 10
11 450 716.67 -266.67 266.67 71111.13 0.59 11
12 700 516.67 183.33 183.33 33611.11 0.26 12
TOTALS 6900 216.67 2050 442500 3.64 TOTALS
AVERAGE 575 21.67 205 44250 0.36 AVERAGE
Next period forecast 616.67 (Bias) (MAD) (MSE) (MAPE) Next period forecast
Std err 235.19

Data WMA 4 Bulan Dat

Demand(y)Forecast Error |Error| Error^2 |Pct Error|
1 550 1
2 450 2
3 350 3
4 600 4
5 750 490 260 260 67600 0.35 5
6 500 595 -95 95 9025 0.19 6
7 400 580 -180 180 32400 0.45 7
8 650 520 130 130 16900 0.2 8
9 850 555 295 295 87025 0.35 9
10 650 665 -15 15 225 0.02 10
11 450 685 -235 235 55225 0.52 11
 12 700 610 90 90 8100 0.13 12
TOTALS 6900 250 1300 276500 2.21 TOTALS
AVERAGE 575 31.25 162.5 34562.5 0.28 AVERAGE
Next period forecast 630 (Bias) (MAD) (MSE) (MAPE) Next period forecast
Std err 214.67

Data WMA 6 Bulan Dat

Demand(y)Forecast Error |Error| Error^2 |Pct Error|
1 550 1
2 450 2
3 350 3
4 600 4
5 750 5
6 500 6
7 400 554.76 -154.76 154.76 23951.25 0.39 7
8 650 516.67 133.33 133.33 17777.77 0.21 8
9 850 557.14 292.86 292.86 85765.29 0.34 9
10 650 645.24 4.76 4.76 22.68 0.01 10
11 450 652.38 -202.38 202.38 40958.04 0.45 11
12 700 600 100 100 10000.01 0.14 12
TOTALS 6900 173.81 888.1 178475 1.54 TOTALS
AVERAGE 575 28.97 148.02 29745.84 0.26 AVERAGE
Next period forecast 633.33 (Bias) (MAD) (MSE) (MAPE) Next period forecast
Std err 211.23
 Data MA 3 Bulan
Demand(y)Forecast Error |Error| Error^2 |Pct Error|
550
450
350
600 450 150 150 22500 0.25
750 466.67 283.33 283.33 80277.78 0.38
500 566.67 -66.67 66.67 4444.45 0.13
400 616.67 -216.67 216.67 46944.45 0.54
650 550 100 100 10000 0.15
850 516.67 333.33 333.33 111111.1 0.39
650 633.33 16.67 16.67 277.78 0.03
450 716.67 -266.67 266.67 71111.13 0.59
700 650 50 50 2500 0.07
6900 383.33 1483.33 349166.7 2.54
575 42.59 164.81 38796.3 0.28
Next period forecast 600 (Bias) (MAD) (MSE) (MAPE)
Std err 223.34

Data MA 5 Bulan
Demand(y)Forecast Error |Error| Error^2 |Pct Error|
550
450
350
600
750
500 540 -40 40 1600 0.08
400 530 -130 130 16900 0.33
650 520 130 130 16900 0.2
850 580 270 270 72900 0.32
650 630 20 20 400 0.03
450 610 -160 160 25600 0.36
700 600 100 100 10000 0.14
6900 190 850 144300 1.45
575 27.14 121.43 20614.29 0.21
Next period forecast 660 (Bias) (MAD) (MSE) (MAPE)
Std err 169.88

Data MA 7 Bulan
Demand(y)Forecast Error |Error| Error^2 |Pct Error|
550
450
350
600
 750
500
400
650 514.29 135.71 135.71 18418.37 0.21
850 528.57 321.43 321.43 103316.3 0.38
650 585.71 64.29 64.29 4132.65 0.1
450 628.57 -178.57 178.57 31887.75 0.4
700 607.14 92.86 92.86 8622.46 0.13
6900 435.71 792.86 166377.5 1.22
575 87.14 158.57 33275.5 0.24
Next period forecast 600 (Bias) (MAD) (MSE) (MAPE)
Std err 235.5

Data WMA 3 Bulan

Demand(y)Forecast Error |Error| Error^2 |Pct Error|
550
450
350
600 416.67 183.33 183.33 33611.11 0.31
750 491.67 258.33 258.33 66736.12 0.34
500 633.33 -133.33 133.33 17777.77 0.27
400 600 -200 200 40000 0.5
650 491.67 158.33 158.33 25069.45 0.24
850 541.67 308.33 308.33 95069.43 0.36
650 708.33 -58.33 58.33 3402.78 0.09
450 716.67 -266.67 266.67 71111.09 0.59
700 583.33 116.67 116.67 13611.12 0.17
6900 366.67 1683.33 366388.9 2.87
575 40.74 187.04 40709.88 0.32
Next period forecast 608.33 (Bias) (MAD) (MSE) (MAPE)
Std err 228.78

Data WMA 5 Bulan

Demand(y)Forecast Error |Error| Error^2 |Pct Error|
550
450
350
600
750
500 576.67 -76.67 76.67 5877.78 0.15
400 563.33 -163.33 163.33 26677.79 0.41
650 520 130 130 16900 0.2
850 563.33 286.67 286.67 82177.76 0.34
650 653.33 -3.33 3.33 11.11 0.01
450 660 -210 210 44100 0.47
 700 606.67 93.33 93.33 8711.11 0.13
6900 56.67 963.33 184455.5 1.7
575 8.1 137.62 26350.79 0.24
Next period forecast 640 (Bias) (MAD) (MSE) (MAPE)
Std err 192.07

Data WMA 7 Bulan

Demand(y)Forecast Error |Error| Error^2 |Pct Error|
550
450
350
600
750
500
400
650 516.07 133.93 133.93 17936.87 0.21
850 550 300 300 90000 0.35
650 630.36 19.64 19.64 385.85 0.03
450 646.43 -196.43 196.43 38584.19 0.44
700 601.79 98.21 98.21 9646.05 0.14
6900 355.36 748.21 156553 1.17
575 71.07 149.64 31310.59 0.23
Next period forecast 625 (Bias) (MAD) (MSE) (MAPE)
Std err 228.44
 ES Alfa 10%
Demand(y) Forecast Error |Error| Error^2 |Pct Error|
1 550 500 50 50 2500 0.09 1
2 450 505 -55 55 3025 0.12 2
3 350 499.5 -149.5 149.5 22350.25 0.43 3
4 600 484.55 115.45 115.45 13328.71 0.19 4
5 750 496.1 253.91 253.91 64467.75 0.34 5
6 500 521.49 -21.49 21.49 461.63 0.04 6
7 400 519.34 -119.34 119.34 14241.3 0.3 7
8 650 507.4 142.6 142.6 20333.84 0.22 8
9 850 521.66 328.34 328.34 107805.3 0.39 9
10 650 554.5 95.5 95.5 9120.89 0.15 10
11 450 564.05 -114.05 114.05 13006.72 0.25 11
12 700 552.64 147.36 147.36 21714.3 0.21 12
TOTALS 6900 673.78 1592.52 292355.6 2.73 TOTALS
AVERAGE 575 56.15 132.71 24362.97 0.23 AVERAGE
Next period forecast 567.38 (Bias) (MAD) (MSE) (MAPE) Next period forecast
Std err 170.98

ES Alfa 30%
Demand(y) Forecast Error |Error| Error^2 |Pct Error|
1 550 500 50 50 2500 0.09 1
2 450 515 -65 65 4225 0.14 2
3 350 495.5 -145.5 145.5 21170.25 0.42 3
4 600 451.85 148.15 148.15 21948.42 0.25 4
5 750 496.3 253.71 253.71 64366.22 0.34 5
6 500 572.41 -72.41 72.41 5242.7 0.14 6
7 400 550.68 -150.68 150.68 22705.84 0.38 7
8 650 505.48 144.52 144.52 20886.27 0.22 8
9 850 548.84 301.16 301.16 90700.09 0.35 9
10 650 639.18 10.82 10.82 116.97 0.02 10
11 450 642.43 -192.43 192.43 37029.07 0.43 11
12 700 584.7 115.3 115.3 13293.96 0.16 12
TOTALS 6900 397.63 1649.68 304184.8 2.94 TOTALS
AVERAGE 575 33.14 137.47 25348.73 0.25 AVERAGE
Next period forecast 619.29 (Bias) (MAD) (MSE) (MAPE) Next period forecast
Std err 174.41

ES Alfa 50%
Demand(y) Forecast Error |Error| Error^2 |Pct Error|
1 550 500 50 50 2500 0.09 1
2 450 525 -75 75 5625 0.17 2
3 350 487.5 -137.5 137.5 18906.25 0.39 3
4 600 418.75 181.25 181.25 32851.56 0.3 4
 5 750 509.38 240.63 240.63 57900.39 0.32 5
6 500 629.69 -129.69 129.69 16818.85 0.26 6
7 400 564.84 -164.84 164.84 27173.46 0.41 7
8 650 482.42 167.58 167.58 28082.43 0.26 8
9 850 566.21 283.79 283.79 80536.23 0.33 9
10 650 708.11 -58.11 58.11 3376.25 0.09 10
11 450 679.05 -229.05 229.05 52465.16 0.51 11
12 700 564.53 135.47 135.47 18353.11 0.19 12
TOTALS 6900 264.53 1852.91 344588.7 3.33 TOTALS
AVERAGE 575 22.04 154.41 28715.72 0.28 AVERAGE
Next period forecast 632.26 (Bias) (MAD) (MSE) (MAPE) Next period forecast
Std err 185.63

ES Alfa 70%
Demand(y) Forecast Error |Error| Error^2 |Pct Error|
1 550 500 50 50 2500 0.09 1
2 450 535 -85 85 7225 0.19 2
3 350 475.5 -125.5 125.5 15750.25 0.36 3
4 600 387.65 212.35 212.35 45092.52 0.35 4
5 750 536.3 213.71 213.71 45669.84 0.28 5
6 500 685.89 -185.89 185.89 34554.53 0.37 6
7 400 555.77 -155.77 155.77 24263.21 0.39 7
8 650 446.73 203.27 203.27 41318.71 0.31 8
9 850 589.02 260.98 260.98 68111.09 0.31 9
10 650 771.71 -121.71 121.71 14812.27 0.19 10
11 450 686.51 -236.51 236.51 55937.79 0.53 11
12 700 520.95 179.05 179.05 32057.65 0.26 12
TOTALS 6900 208.98 2029.73 387292.9 3.63 TOTALS
AVERAGE 575 17.42 169.14 32274.41 0.3 AVERAGE
Next period forecast 646.29 (Bias) (MAD) (MSE) (MAPE) Next period forecast
Std err 196.8

ES Alfa 90%
Demand( Forecast Error |Error| Error^2 |Pct Error|
1 550 500 50 50 2500 0.09
2 450 545 -95 95 9025 0.21
3 350 459.5 -109.5 109.5 11990.3 0.31
4 600 360.95 239.05 239.05 57144.9 0.4
5 750 576.1 173.91 173.91 30243 0.23
6 500 732.61 -232.61 232.61 54107.2 0.47
7 400 523.26 -123.26 123.26 15193.3 0.31
8 650 412.33 237.67 237.67 56488.9 0.37
9 850 626.23 223.77 223.77 50071.9 0.26
10 650 827.62 -177.62 177.62 31550 0.27
11 450 667.76 -217.76 217.76 47420.4 0.48
12 700 471.78 228.22 228.22 52086.1 0.33
TOTALS 6900 196.86 2108.4 417821 3.73
AVERAG 575 16.41 175.7 34818.4 0.31
Next period forecast 677.18 (Bias) (MAD) (MSE) (MAPE)
Std err 204.41
 ES Alfa 20%
Demand(y)Forecast Error |Error| Error^2 |Pct Error|
550 500 50 50 2500 0.09
450 510 -60 60 3600 0.13
350 498 -148 148 21904 0.42
600 468.4 131.6 131.6 17318.56 0.22
750 494.72 255.28 255.28 65167.88 0.34
500 545.78 -45.78 45.78 2095.44 0.09
400 536.62 -136.62 136.62 18665.24 0.34
650 509.3 140.7 140.7 19797.44 0.22
850 537.44 312.56 312.56 97695.43 0.37
650 599.95 50.05 50.05 2505.02 0.08
450 609.96 -159.96 159.96 25587.15 0.36
700 577.97 122.03 122.03 14891.83 0.17
6900 511.87 1612.59 291728 2.83
575 42.66 134.38 24310.67 0.24
Next period forecast 602.37 (Bias) (MAD) (MSE) (MAPE)
Std err 170.8

ES Alfa 40%
Demand(y)Forecast Error |Error| Error^2 |Pct Error|
550 500 50 50 2500 0.09
450 520 -70 70 4900 0.16
350 492 -142 142 20164 0.41
600 435.2 164.8 164.8 27159.04 0.27
750 501.12 248.88 248.88 61941.26 0.33
500 600.67 -100.67 100.67 10134.85 0.2
400 560.4 -160.4 160.4 25729.19 0.4
650 496.24 153.76 153.76 23641.55 0.24
850 557.75 292.25 292.25 85412.88 0.34
650 674.65 -24.65 24.65 607.48 0.04
450 664.79 -214.79 214.79 46134 0.48
700 578.87 121.13 121.13 14671.75 0.17
6900 318.31 1743.33 322996 3.13
575 26.53 145.28 26916.33 0.26
Next period forecast 627.32 (Bias) (MAD) (MSE) (MAPE)
Std err 179.72

ES Alfa 60%
Demand(y)Forecast Error |Error| Error^2 |Pct Error|
550 500 50 50 2500 0.09
450 530 -80 80 6400 0.18
350 482 -132 132 17424 0.38
600 402.8 197.2 197.2 38887.84 0.33
 750 521.12 228.88 228.88 52386.05 0.31
500 658.45 -158.45 158.45 25105.77 0.32
400 563.38 -163.38 163.38 26692.77 0.41
650 465.35 184.65 184.65 34095 0.28
850 576.14 273.86 273.86 74998.92 0.32
650 740.46 -90.46 90.46 8182.34 0.14
450 686.18 -236.18 236.18 55782.17 0.52
700 544.47 155.53 155.53 24188.64 0.22
6900 229.65 1950.58 366643.5 3.5
575 19.14 162.55 30553.63 0.29
Next period forecast 637.79 (Bias) (MAD) (MSE) (MAPE)
Std err 191.48

ES Alfa 80%
Demand(y)Forecast Error |Error| Error^2 |Pct Error|
550 500 50 50 2500 0.09
450 540 -90 90 8100 0.2
350 468 -118 118 13924 0.34
600 373.6 226.4 226.4 51256.96 0.38
750 554.72 195.28 195.28 38134.27 0.26
500 710.94 -210.94 210.94 44497.38 0.42
400 542.19 -142.19 142.19 20217.65 0.36
650 428.44 221.56 221.56 49089.83 0.34
850 605.69 244.31 244.31 59688.57 0.29
650 801.14 -151.14 151.14 22842.55 0.23
450 680.23 -230.23 230.23 53004.69 0.51
700 496.05 203.95 203.95 41597.44 0.29
6900 199.01 2084.01 404853.3 3.71
575 16.58 173.67 33737.78 0.31
Next period forecast 659.21 (Bias) (MAD) (MSE) (MAPE)
Std err 201.21