Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
Profesor:
Arturo L. Vásquez Cordano, Ph.D.
Surco, Lima - Perú
Programa
Contenido
• Limitaciones de los Métodos Tradicionales de Evaluación
de Proyectos
VPN
Este proyecto tiene 2 TIRs:
una en 10% y una en 19%
NPV
IRR
Payback
Sensitivity analysis
Discounted payback
Profitability index
Decision trees
Simulation analysis
Real options
Percent of 205 Fortune 1000 companies that never use a given technique (c. 2000)
IRR
US
NPV
Canada
Payback
Real options or MC
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Dynamic
quantitative Financial options,
real options
and flexibility
Static
quantitative
1970
Qualitative Old style DCF
analysis
David Laughton (2004). “Determining petroleum and mineral asset values. Where we have been, where we might go”, CIM AGM, Edmonton.
Integrated DCF
Dynamic Monte Carlo and
Simple DCF
and flexibility
decision trees
quantitative
decision trees
David Laughton (2004). “Determining petroleum and mineral asset values. Where we have been, where we might go”, CIM AGM, Edmonton.
Financial option
analogy
(Black-Scholes) Monte Carlo with
Static Monte Carlo with risk-adjusted
true distributions distributions
quantitative
David Laughton (2004). “Determining petroleum and mineral asset values. Where we have been, where we might go”, CIM AGM, Edmonton.
• “Me gustan los métodos de valoración con los que puedo trabajar
con mis manos y pies.”
1.50
Mineral price ($/unit)
1.25
1.00
0.75
0.25
0.00
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Project time (year)
1100
1000
Mineral price ($/unit)
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Project time (year)
Profesor:
Arturo L. Vásquez Cordano, Ph.D.