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SQ 2009 Name: TUAN Le

ATM 116 Final, due on 12 June 09

TERM PAPER
Project Title: Climate change sensitive integrated water resource management for
key development sectors in central coast of Viet Nam.

Abstract:
Climate change is a reality in the world as well as in Vietnam. As stated in the latest
comprehensive reports from the International Panel on Climate Change[1], the globe is warming up
and it is happening faster than earlier predicted and observed (IPCC, 2007). According to the report
of United national development Program (UNDP), “22 million Viet Nam residents have to resettle if
the global temperature increases 2oC more and 45% agriculture land in Mekong delta is destroyed
resulting from sea level rise” (UNDP, 2007).
Located in the tropical monsoon area, Vietnam is one of the five storm-prone areas of the
Asia Pacific region and is considered one of the most disaster prone countries in the world. Natural
disasters have become more and more serious as an symptom of climate change. Drought, typhoons
and tropical storms are getting more severe; huge floods, repeated floods have occurred recently
(mostly in Central Vietnam). Beside that, the water resources come from neighboring countries; the
average annual flow is 835 billion m3, of which 835 billion m3 (accounts for 37.5%) is originated in
Vietnam territory.
With a coastline of 3,260 kilometers, Vietnam is considered vulnerable country to climate
change, which could have profound effects on water sector, then could effect more on economic
sectors, productivity, and livelihoods throughout the country. The central coast of Viet Nam
consisting of 14 provinces and shares the major part of Viet Nam’s long coastal line. Accounting for
approximately 12% of the territory of Vietnam, it is living area of 23% of the country’s population,
which would be largely inundated by the sea level rise in the future as an effect of climate change.
This term paper will focus on vulnerable climate change situation of the above central coastal
line and propose to develop a adaptation tool under building climate change resilient measurement in
through improved integrated water resource management to support sustainable development of key
socio-economic sectors in the Central coast of Viet Nam.

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I. Introduction
The territory of Vietnam stretches across 15
north latitude degrees (from 8o30’ to 23o20’) and 7
east longitude degrees (from 102o10’ to 109o20’),
bordering China to the North, Laos and Cambodia to
the West, and facing the East Sea to the East and the
South.
With the total territory area of 329.241 km2 and
a coastal line of 3260 km, every 100 km2 of land has 1
km of coastline. Its width is about 600 km at the
widest part and 50 km at the narrowest point. Viet
Nam has a relatively diverse topography. The
country’s territory is made up of mountains,
highlands, deltas, rivers, coastline, islands and
peninsulas. Hills and mountains cover ¾ of land area.
Mountain ranges tend to have North-West to South-
East Direction and perpendicular to the direction of
North East – South West tropical monsoon. Parallel
mountains separate the land and make up North West
– South East direction Rivers. Most of rivers flow into
the East Sea. High, steep and separated mountains scattered all over the country, and blended
with dense river networks.
Plains account for the remaining 25% of the territorial area, consisting of the Red
River delta, the central coastal plain, the Southeast plain and the Mekong River delta.
The territory is divided into seven economic and sub-climate zones, namely the
Northern Mountains, the Red River
Delta, the North Central Coast, the
South Central Coast, the Central
Highlands, the South East and the
Mekong River delta.
With the above mentioned
features, Vietnam usually suffers from
storms, floods, and other types of
natural disasters (Tuan, 2007). The main
figures are as follows:

Typical disaster in VietNam, CCFSC, 2008

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1.1. Typhoons: In more than 50 years (1954-2006), there were totally 380 typhoons
and tropical depressions in Vietnam, of which 31% hitting the North, 36% in the North and
Middle Central Coast and 33% in the South Central Coast. Typhoon’s landfalls usually
accompany with high tide and heavy rain, thus resulting in and floods. It is estimated that up
to 80-90% of the Vietnam’s population are affected by typhoons.
1.2 Floods
a. Floods in Northern river systems: Flood season in the Red river system and Thai
Binh river system normally occurs from May to September, earlier than that in other regions.
On average, there are about 3 to 5
floods within the region annually.
b. Floods on rivers in the
Central: The flood season on the rivers
from Thanh Hoa to Ha Tinh is in the
period June to October every year.
Floods on these rivers generally occur
on main streams because of dyke
systems preventing the overflow. Flood
amplitude is above 7m on the Ma river
system and above 9m on the Ca river
system. On the rivers from Quang Binh
to Binh Thuan, the flood season is from
September to December.
c. Floods on rivers in the Mud flood, CCFSC, 2008
Central Highlands: This region does
not have a major river system with a relatively low annual rainfall precipitation. The
influenced area of floods in this region is narrow and characterized by mountainous and flash
floods.
d. Floods in the South East: Since rainfall is not very high plus thick and diverse
vegetation cover forest, floods in the
Dong Nai River are not considerably
strong but long lasting. Nevertheless,
history has seen some unusual and
extremely strong floods, such as in
October 1952, the highest flow at the
flood crest in Bien Hoa is 12,500 m3/s.
e. Floods in the Mekong delta:
Floods are usually caused by the
Mekong river upstream floods. The
progress of floods in the Mekong river

Typhoon in Middle Coastal province, CCFSC,2008 3


delta is slow and floods last for a long period of 4 to 5 months annually, causing inundation
in most areas of the Mekong river delta.

1.3. Flash floods and mud floods: Flash and mud floods are often found in
mountainous and hilly areas where characterized by steep slopes, heavy rains and
disadvantaged drainage conditions. Flash floods also occur due to breakages of small
reservoirs or landslides blocking up flows, etc. Flash floods have occurred and threatened in
the Northern Mountains, the Central, the Central Highlands and the South East. Due to
climate changes in recent years, flash floods have become much more popular in Vietnam.

1.4. Inundation: Inundation in Vietnam is usually caused by heavy rains and it is long
lasting in some areas. Some parts in the long coastal are easily affected by inundation when
there is a combination between high flow from river and tidal rise from the sea.

1.5. Droughts and desertification: Drought is a common type of disasters in Vietnam,


which causes the 3rd greatest losses, following typhoons and floods. In recent years, droughts
have continually happened throughout the country. In some particular year, droughts reduced
20-30% of the food productivity, thus severely threatening people’s livelihoods. Drought
control is difficult due to water source shortage and depleted reservoirs. Prolonged droughts
result in desertification in several regions, especially the South Central, sandy coastal areas
and steep land in the highlands and mountains.

1.6. Salinity intrusion: The coastline of Vietnam is 3,260 km long with many river
estuaries, therefore salinity intrusion is found along the entire coastline at different rates.
Three zones at higher risk of salinity intrusion are the South West coastal provinces, Central
coastal provinces and the downstream part of the Dong Nai River. The South West coastal
region is the most severely affected by salinity intrusion with 1.77 million ha of salinized
land, accounting for 45% of the total area. Salinity intrusion prevention and water freshening
in this area are usually very costly.

1.7. Squalls and cyclone:


Cyclones, due to stronger winds, high
velocity and frequent directional changes,
often cause violent damage. Squalls and
cyclones are common phenomena in
Vietnam, and their frequency has
increased in recent years.

1.8. Landslides: Landslide is a


common type of disasters in Vietnam,
consisting of river bank erosion, coastline
Recoded big disaster event, CCFSC, 2008 4
erosion, and landslides on mountain slopes, land fissuring, etc. Landslides are usually caused
by external factors (water), internal factors (geological changes) and human activities
(uncontrolled mineral exploitation or construction), etc.

2. Problem from Context:


Climate related development problems in the project area:
Central coast of Viet Nam consisting of 14 provinces and shares the major part of Viet
Nam long coast line. The region is administratively divided into two sub-regions: North
central (6 provinces from Thanh Hoa to Thua Thien Hue) and South central coast (1 city and
7 provinces from Da Nang to Binh Thuan)
All provinces share similar topography and climate conditions including steep and short
rivers, leading to quick flooding from mountainous to low land areas; may estuaries (one in
every 2 km of the coast line) where there are large lowland for rice production concentrates
Due to this topography and climate all provinces are prone to multiple hazards: typhoon,
floods, droughts, salinity intrusion.
With projected increased temperature, sea level rise and changes in rainfall pattern, the
region will be extremely vulnerable
to climate change.
Majority of the provinces in the
region falls below the country
average poverty rate of 24% with
range from 28 to 48%. They also
belong to the group of provinces with
the 2nd or 3rd lowest MDG index.
Annual recurrent natural disasters
contribute to this slow development
Maximum sea level fluctuation at HonDau station, Thuc, 2008
progress of the region.
The population density is high and there is increasing concentration of industry, harbors,
urban areas and tourism as in line with the develop directions of the country.
Current climate variability already put great pressure on the water resource management
in the region, especially in the South central provinces. With uneven distribution of rainfall
and limited storage capacity, the provinces face with too much water during flood seasons
and scarcity during dry season. There are reservoirs and irrigation systems but not equally
distributed between provinces and districts. The region is already facing with conflicts in the
use of water between sectors and between areas i.e. reservoir in one province is supposed to
provide both water supplies for the industry in that province and large area of rice field
another.
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Difficulties and challenges (MARD, 2006)[8]:
+ Limited capacity of responsible provincial/local staffs to develop strategies and
effective measures for water resource management, taking into account climate variability
and change; this includes lack of supporting tools for risk assessment and development of
measures.
+ There has been no mechanism in place to help provinces to resolve the conflicts over
water use to serve the sustainable development of key sectors in the province/region.
+ Limited capacity of hydro-meteology forecast both in terms of facilities and human
resources and equipments.
+ Lack of practices for sustainable use of water amongst the population, leading to
overuse of water in wet season and having to buy water from other places in dry season.

3. Goal and Objectives:


3.1 Project ultimate goal
Building climate change resilient/adaptation measurements in central coastal of Viet
Nam through improved integrated water resource management to support key sectors on
socio-economic development.
3.2 Project phased approach
A regional approach in water resource management is required for this Central coast
region as in line with the recently approved National strategy for Water Resource
Management [11]. However, given the large number of provinces and diversity of issues faced
in each province, the project will follow a phase approach.
- Phase I, which objectives and activities are proposed below will focus on the first 3
pilot provinces. It will build capacity for improved processes and skills in integrating
climate risk management concerns in developing water resource management (WRM)
plan for three selected provinces. Demonstration of actual climate sensitive approaches
prioritized in the WRM plan will be implemented in one province (e.g Ninh Thuan
province) to provide lessons learned and improvements for wider application.
Furthermore, sharing and documentation of experiences will be done to support the
rolling out of the WRM plans in the remaining provinces in Phase II.
- Phase II: base on the results of phase I, will design more streamlined plans for
rolling out of the WRM planning and implementation in the remaining 11 provinces.
Focus will be put on capitalizing the processes and capacities built in Phase I and
facilitating a consultation process and consolidation of a master plan for WRM for
Central coast of Viet Nam.

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3.3 Project objectives
Objective 1: Capacity strengthened to integrate disaster and climate risks concerns in water
management policies and approaches in 3 selected central coast provinces.
Objective 2: Demonstrate the climate sensitive approaches to manage the conflicts over
multiple use of water including agriculture, aquaculture, hydropower and municipal water
supply in Ninh Thuan province.

4. Target beneficiaries
- Provincial and local government officials.
- Farmers/people in vulnerable communities.
- Government officials.

5. Methodology of implementation
- The Phase approach, proposed by the project with possible significant reduced of
Technical assistance in Phase II
- Technology and skills transfer through Training of Trainee (TOT);
- Careful plan that combines with quality control to utilize capacities built in Phase I for
activities in Phase II
- Supporting mechanism developed in Phase II to see the process through and provide
advisory/technical services to provinces

6. Project duration
Duration: 2 years for phase 1 (2010 – 2011) and 1 year for Phase 2 (2012)
Phase 1:
+ Year 1:
- Finalization and approval of the WRM plans with climate change adaptation.
- Development of adaptive agriculture models and climate change sensitive IWRM
processes
+ Year 2:
- Document of process, lessons learned and preparation of Guide for provinces
- Training and implementation of agriculture models and climate change sensitive
IWRM.
Phase 2:
+ Year 3:
- Review and document/share lessons learned
- Prepare for replication and extension to other regions of the country.
- Conducting in other region.

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Table of proposed Activities in phase 1:

Budget and
Activity Work items Timeline Responsibilities partner
source (USD)
Objective 1: Capacity strengthened to integrate disaster and climate risks concerns in water management
165,000
policies and approaches in 14 central coastal provinces.
Activity 1.1: Establish provincial multi-
sectoral tasking force group (TFG) in the Consultation for consensus TFG 10,000
3 selected provinces (Ninh Thuan, Binh on process and end results Province DARD
Thuan and Binh Dinh) for the Month 2
development of the climate sensitive
water resource management (WRM) plan
Design term of reference for - Project technical
Activity 1.2: Development of framing
farming tool climate change Month - TFG; provincial staffs 15,000
tools for situation analysis of climate risk
analysis for WRM, 2-3 - International consultant
in the provinces
assessment tools
Activity 1.3: Train the provincial tasks - Training course established - Project technical
force team Climate resilience in selected province; Month - TFG; 30,000
management (CRM) in water resource - Training material 4-5 - International consultant
management and use of assessment tools
Activity 1.4: Data collection and situation - List of data needs; - Provincial TFG
- Field trip for data Month - Project technical; 20,000
analysis by provincial teams, guided by
collection; 3-6 - International consultant
experts
Activity 1.5: Provincial teams carry out - Meeting with provincial Month - Project technical
situation analysis, identify needs and WRM agency 6 -7 assistance (Int’l and 20,000
develop integrated WRM plan - Determine the critical area national) to work
of CRM - fieldtrip if together
necessary
- Data analysis: current and

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Budget and
Activity Work items Timeline Responsibilities partner
source (USD)
future situation of WRM
with CRM
- Workshop provided; - Project technical
- Training: provincial leader, - TFG; 20,000
Activity 1.6: Undertake consultation provincial technical staff, - Provincial WRM
Month
process at provincial/local level on the farmer/community level authorities
8-11
WRM plan and finalization - Request provincial - International consultant
authority to approve the
proposed plans
- Draft lesson learn and
Activity 1.7: Organize consultation recommendations; - TFG; 20,000
workshops to share experiences amongst - Workshop for exchanging Month - International consultant
3 provinces and with other central coast experiences: presentation 11-12
provinces consensus amongst TFG of
3 provinces
- Lesson learn analysis,
Activity 1.8: Document the piloted Month 12 - Project technical
comprehensive conclusion
processes, lessons learned and widely - TFG; 15,000
- Draft guideline/handbook
disseminate to central coast provinces - International consultant
for disseminating
- Guideline/handbook
Activity 1.9: Prepare guidance on - Project technical
completed for disseminating
development of WRM plan in Month 12 - TFG; 15,000
- Time frame for applying
consultation with all provinces - International consultant
approaches to pilot province
Objective 2: Demonstrate the climate sensitive approaches to manage the conflicts over multiple use of water
135,000
including agriculture, aquaculture, hydropower and municipal water supply in Ninh Thuan province
Activity 2.1: Develop climate forecast and - Develop middle-term Month - Project technical 15,000
alternative agriculture models for the climate forecast model; 13-14 - International consultant
province to adapt to climate change, in - Develop agriculture plans
line with the WRM plan and consensus (crop pattern suitable with

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Budget and
Activity Work items Timeline Responsibilities partner
source (USD)
future climate estimation);
- Meeting with
building (with related department and provincial/district and
districts/communes) on the new commune authorities for
agriculture plan agriculture management to
approve new plan of
agriculture cultivation
- Meeting with
Activity 2.2: Develop plan to implement provincial/district and - Project technical
the new agriculture measures including commune experts and - TFG;
Month
reserve plan for compensation in case of agriculture manager on plant - Provincial WRM 5,000
14-18
failure, endorsed by the provincial /crop pattern to develop authorities
agriculture authorities alternative agriculture - International consultant
model/plans
- Develop training material;
Activity 2.3: Training of Trainers (TOT)
- Conducting training
for concerned provincial officials and
workshop for agriculture - Project technical
agriculture extension workers on the Month 15 10,000
extension staff/workers; - TFG;
CRM in agriculture and implementation
invited farmer/ communities
of new adaptive agriculture models
preventatives
- Project technical
Activity 2.4: Agriculture extension
Conducting training to Month 16 - TFG;
workers provide training and support to 15,000
farmers in communities. – 24 - Provincial WRM
farmers
authorities
Activity 2.5: Develop a monitoring
- Develop TOR for
mechanism for Agriculture extension - Project technical
monitoring of implementing;
workers to record/report on the Month 17 - TFG; 10,000
- Request provincial
progress/result of implementing - International consultant
authorities to approve TOR;
new/changed crops
Activity 2.6: Carry out participatory - Develop flyer for new Month - Project technical 15,000
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Budget and
Activity Work items Timeline Responsibilities partner
source (USD)
agriculture plan
effectiveness and efficiency
review of the new adaptive agriculture - TFG;
assessing; 23-24
models and lessons learned for replication - International consultant
- Distribute and gather flyer
assessment
- Analysis assessment;
Activity 2.7: Organize experience - Project technical
report sharing experiences
sharing workshop and visits by other Month - TFG;
- Workshop on pilot 20,000
provinces to the pilot province to 23-24 - Provincial WRM
implementation; invited
sensitize on the approach authorities
other provinces.
- Fieldtrip to find the
Activity 2.8: Select a water use
schemes that have conflict Month - Project technical
scheme/infrastructure where most critical 5,000
on water supply for 18-23 - TFG;
conflicts identified in the WRM plan
cultivation
- Meeting stakeholder of
schemes and report the
Activity 2.9: Develop options and
situation; - Project technical
processes and build consensus amongst
- Propose alternative Month 23 - TFG; 10,000
stakeholders to resolve the conflicts,
measures/option base on - International consultant
using tools and climate data
tools mentioned in the 1st
objectives
- Develop training - Project technical
Activity 2.10: Train concerned provincial
material/presentation; - TFG;
and local officials and water use
- Conduct training workshop Month 24 - Provincial WRM 15,000
cooperative members on CRM in WRM
to water use cooperative authorities
and approaches to resolve conflicts
members - International consultant
Activity 2.11: Assessment of
effectiveness of the new - TOR of assessment - Project technical
Month 24 15,000
approaches/processes and share results - Reporting project results - International consultant
with other provinces
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10. Outputs
Objective/Activity Objective Indicator Output Output
indicator
o Provincial staffs from
Objective 1: Capacity different sectors in 3 provinces
strengthened to able to carry out situation
integrate disaster and analysis, using the tools and
climate risks concerns develop provincial WRM plans
in water management o Process and lessons
policies and learned documented and
approaches in 3 south disseminated to other central
central coastal coast provinces
provinces.

Activity 1.1 – 1.2 Output 1.1: Framing tools for climate situation
analysis developed and number of central and - Handbook
provincial officials trained on CRM in WRM print out
and assessment tools
Activity 1.4 –1.6 Output 1.2: Climate sensitive WRM plans
developed and approved for demonstrated 3 - Plans print out;
provinces - Decision of
approval for
plan
Activity 1.7 –1.9 Output 1.3: Documentation and Guidance of - Guidelines
processes and lessons learned for the print out
development of the climate sensitive WRM - List of
plans prepared and widely shared with all distribution
Central coast provinces agencies
Objective 2: o New agriculture plan
Demonstrate the with climate adaptive measures

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Objective/Activity Objective Indicator Output Output
indicator
climate sensitive and WRM approaches
approaches to manage developed with participation of
the conflicts over provincial/local staffs
multiple use of water o Provincial and local
including agriculture, staffs able to train farmers in
aquaculture, applying new adaptive
hydropower and agriculture models and report
municipal water on results
supply in one province o Implementation of
of the region new approaches/measures well
documented and disseminated

Activity 2.1 – 2.2 Output 2.1: A new agriculture plan developed Plan print out
to adapt to the climate situation and adopted in and decision of
the pilot province approval
Activity 2.2 – 2.5 Output 2.2: Number of provincial/district and
commune officials an agriculture extension List of trainers
workers trained on CRM in agriculture and Report print out
implementation of adaptive agriculture models
Activity 2.6 – 2.7 Output 2.3: Report of the review and
Report print out
experiences widely shared with other provinces
Activity 2.8 – 2.9 Output 2.4: Processes agreed and put in place to
resolve conflicts in water use between sectors Minute of
and users in the pilot province and between the meeting
province with neighboring provinces
Activity 2.10 Output 2.5: Number of water use cooperative Reports
members trained on CRM in WRM and new
approaches to improve water management and
conflict resolution
Activity 2.11 Output 2.6: Report of the assessment prepared Report submit at
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Objective/Activity Objective Indicator Output Output
indicator
and widely disseminated. the due date

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7. Expected Total Budget
Expected of 300,000 USD

8. Potential Funding Sources


National budget, local budget, communities raising, international support.

9. Partners
- Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development
- Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources
- Provincial People Committee of participating provinces
- Department of Agriculture and Rural Development (DARD), Department of Environment
and Natural Resources (DONRE) and other provincial/local agencies and mass organizations
including Agriculture extension, Farmer association and water use cooperatives

10. Significant Risks and Assumptions


+ Assumptions:
- Provincial authority willing to implement the project;
- No major changes in Gov policies and institutional structure for water resource
management;
- No major changes in local structures for agriculture development and water resources
management, i.e. the role and mandate of the agriculture extension and water use cooperatives;
+ Risks:
- Failure to mobilize expert inputs;
- Major natural disasters that disturb/cause delays in project implementation;

11. Important considerations for next steps


- Project design lacks of provincial partners ( this proposal is considered the idea which
can be developed more details in the future)
- A more careful analysis of the region to justify selection of pilots is not sufficient due to
lack of updated data.
- Intensive sensitization with provincial/local government required for further steps in
designing/implementing the project.

12. Discussion and Conclusion:


When analyzing the existing vulnerable situation in the area as well as developing
tools without updated data from the region, the output of the project’s activities cannot be
effective or feasible with the actual condition of the region. Moreover, since the region is
quite long with different provinces, each province has different customs of using and
managing water. Therefore, it is particularly difficult to apply the same tool to all provinces.
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In order to develop a consensus measure which can be applied to all provinces, it is good to
consult and get ideas from local authorities, especially the functioning agency in the water
sector in all provinces.
When writing this paper, I had the opportunity to look up many relevant papers and
concepts related to global climate change and its mitigation and adaptation measurements.
Doing this has strengthened my knowledge and background in this field. This work has also
helped me with how to develop a project on water management and climate change, the
subject that I like most and which is the most compatible with my background.
If I could start from the beginning, I would try to minimize the uncertainty when
developing this project by collecting the most up-to-date data on climate change and water
management as well as getting as many contributing recommendations as possible from
provinces in the projected area.
In conclusion, this term paper is considered an example of adaptive measurement to
climate change through integrated water management. This idea of proposal is feasible and
can be further developed to be a prospective project and applied in the future.
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