Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 80 (2017) 990–1016

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Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews

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Review of GHG emissions in Pakistan compared to SAARC countries MARK

a b b,⁎ c
N. Abas , A. Kalair , N. Khan , A.R. Kalair
a
Department of Electrical Engineering, University of Gujrat, Hafiz Hayat Campus, Gujrat, Pakistan
b
Department of Electrical Engineering, COMSATS Institute of Information Technology, Islamabad, Pakistan
c
Department of Electrical Engineering, Air University Islamabad, Pakistan

A R T I C L E I N F O A BS T RAC T

Keywords: Fossil fuel consumption, luxurious lifestyles, population and economic growths are drivers of climate change.
Climate change Rampant rise in Greenhouse Gases (GHG) emissions drives the big wheel of climate change which affects
Global warming human societies, animal habitats and woodlands by flash floods, glacial melts, acidic rains, droughts, famines,
Adaptation wildfires, epidemics, heat and cold waves. South Asia is one of the most severely affected regions on the planet
Mitigation
due to its demographics. The per capita impact of climate change on the millions of Pakistanis is very high
Energy transition
compared to their diminutive per capita share of global GHG emissions. Environmental issues of South Asian
Sustainability
Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) countries include deforestation, air pollution, desertification,
glacial melts, sea level rise, water contamination and loss of biodiversity. Pakistan is among the top ten
countries worst hit by climate change, where native populations of lions, leopards, dolphins, tortoise and
vultures face extinction threat. Acacia and rosewood tree forests in Sindh, Punjab and Pak-Afghan precincts
have already dried by dieback disease during 1998–2005. Hundreds of people succumb to death annually by
heat waves in South during summer and cold waves in North during winter. Climate change is a global
phenomenon; nevertheless, higher GHG emissions first affect local and regional territories and later impact
worldwide. Pakistan's CO2 emissions are greater than least developed SAARC countries but much lower than the
nearby Himalayan slope countries. This paper reports impact of CO2 emissions on society, forests, crops and
wildlife in Pakistan recounting adaptation and mitigation strategies in SAARC countries. We present simulation
results for a future super smart grid connecting Central Asian States (CAS) to SAARC countries for bilateral
electricity trade, progress in carbon capture and storage technologies in SAARC countries, and original research
on utilizing CO2 (R744) for water heating in extremely cold regions.

1. Introduction
Climate may be referred as weather conditions such as air
temperatures, precipitations, atmospheric pressures, humidity levels,
the wind flows, sunshine intensities and cloud covers, etc. Any change
in the weather compared to the earlier short or long term observations
is called climate change. Natural climate equilibrium is continuously
stabilized by local ecosystems and global carbon, water and nitrogen
cycles. The carbon cycle consists of several geological, physical,
chemical and biochemical processes. The entire quantity of global
75,045,250 Gt (Gigatons) carbon is distributed in lithosphere
(99.94%), hydrosphere (0.0005%), biosphere (0.0000255%), fossil
fuels (0.000055%) and atmosphere (0.0000095%). Biosphere holds
2000 Gt (2 Tt) of carbon, which is a tiny fraction of global carbon
reserves [1]. The Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions during respiration
and fossil fuel combustions are partly taken up by oceans while others
accrue in the atmosphere. Annual human emissions at a rate of 0.058 g
per exhale (12 exhales per minute) by 7.2 billion people are 2.63 Gt.
Lithosphere and Hydrosphere hold 75 Pt (Petatons) and 38 Tt
(Teratons) of carbon. Lithosphere uptakes carbon by burial and
sedimentation and releases by the eruption and extraction processes.
Hydrosphere exchanges carbon by uptake and up well of Carbon
dioxide (CO2) and Methane (CH4). Natural reservoirs of CO2 are
oceans (93.4%), atmosphere (2.3%), continents (2.1%), Arctic,
Antarctica and Himalayan glaciers and ice caps (2.2%). Oceans (22%)
and plants (55%) uptake most of the CO2 emissions caused by
combustion of fossil fuels and remaining 45% keeps on accumulating
in the atmosphere.
Short term climate changes continue to occur in an environment,
but long-term changes are caused by GHG in the atmosphere. Key
greenhouse gases include CO2 (76%), CH4 (16%), N2O (6%) and
F-gases (2%) [2]. Out of the total 76% CO2 emissions 65% emit during
fossil fuels combustions & industrial processes and 11% through
forestry and land use patterns. Economic activities leading to GHG

⁎
Corresponding author.
E-mail addresses: naeemkalair@uog.edu.pk (N. Abas), anam.kalair@comsats.edu.pk (A. Kalair), nasrullhak@yahoo.com (N. Khan), 130390@students.au.edu.pk (A.R. Kalair).

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2017.04.022
Received 31 January 2016; Received in revised form 5 March 2017; Accepted 17 April 2017
Available online 02 June 2017
1364-0321/ © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
N. Abas et al. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 80 (2017) 990–1016

emissions include energy (25%), agriculture (24%), industry (21%),

transport (14%), energy related activities (10%) and buildings (6%) [2–
4]. Annual energy consumptions have gone beyond 14GTOE and
carbon emissions have surpassed 10Gt [3].
Annual GHG emissions have exceeded 53Gt CO-eq out of which
about 40 Gt is CO2 [1,5]. Recent simulation analyses show the CO2
emissions, despite concerted efforts to reduce it, are likely to increase
to 51.88 Gt by 2100 which would be a level 52.9% above 2010 levels
[6]. The mean GHG concentration is 430 ppm with CO2 contributing to
402 ppm. The average temperature rise from 1880 to 2015 has been
1 °C which is midway to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) set target of 2 °C by 2100. To achieve this humans
should cap their emissions to 1 Tt of CO2 in addition to the previous
emissions of 1.9 Tt. This is only possible by cutting 40–70% of
emissions over 2010 level by 2050 [7]. Key drivers of GHG emission Fig. 1. Pakistan's CO2 emissions by sector [31].
include population, gross domestic products (GDP) and global energy
systems. Raupach and his co researchers points out seven sources and Table 1
defines global CO2 emission flux (F) to be product of global population, Existing and future emissions of Pakistan [31].
per capita GDP, the global GDP energy intensity and the carbon
Total Emissions 2011 2020 2030 2040 2050
intensity of the energy produced globally [8].
Global average temperature has increased by 0.74 °C, and sea level GHG (Mt CO2eq) 347 557 1046 2156 4621
is rising at a rate of 1.8 mm per year since 1961 due to Arctic sea ice Energy 176 295 560 1250 2730
shrinking at a rate of 2.7% per decade [9]. The IPCC has predicted a % Share 50.6 52.9 53.5 58.0 59.1
Agriculture 134 210 408 812 1765
temperature rise of 1.5–5.8 °C during 21st century [10]. Mountainous
% Share 38.7 37.7 39.0 37.7 38.2
glaciers in the Himalayan region are melting faster than ever before in Industry 20 30 52 61 75
known history [11]. There is growing consensus among agriculturalists, % Share 5.8 5.4 5.0 2.8 1.6
environmentalists and energy expert's on the impact of climate change LULUCFa 10 13 15 20 35
% Share 2.9 2.3 1.4 0.9 0.8
on our daily life. Scientists and policy makers are seriously looking at
Waste 7 9 11 13 16
the population, water, food, energy, poverty and security nexus [12– % Share 1.9 1.6 1.1 0.6 0.3
20]. Today CO2 level in the air is about 28–29% higher than 150 years
ago. Ice core data shows the CO2 level never increased to current levels a
LULUCF – Land use, land‐use change, and forestry.
in at last 420,000 years [21,22]. Rampant rate of rise of CO2 emissions
(40 GtCO2/y) has increased concentration of carbon from 760 GtC in inevitably result in increased GHG emissions. By opting for a coal rich
2001 to 1000 GtC in last 15 years. Net concentration of carbon in the future, Pakistan is on the path of environmentally damaging energy
atmosphere is increasing at rate of 18 GtC per year. This high rate may mix in the future. Pakistan's overall GHG emissions are projected to
be attributed to saturation of oceans and the rampant rise of increase from 347 million tons of CO2 equivalents (Mt CO2-eq) in 2011
deforestation worldwide [23]. to 4621 Mt CO2eq in 2050 as shown in Table 1.
According to results of panel group Fully Modified Ordinary Least These emissions are expected by the data of projected GDP by
Squares (FMOLS) the percentage of forest area is decreasing in sector estimates for agriculture, large-scale manufacturing, energy and
Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka. Carbon dioxide emissions were 8% transport. The CO2 intensities of coal and gas are 0.92 and 52 kg CO2/
in 1990 which have increased to 19% in 2008 [24]. Rampant rise of kW h, whereas nuclear and renewable have almost 0 kg CO2/kW h
GHG emissions at rate of 5% /decade seems to be the cause of increase [32,33]. Coal is used for 40–50% of electricity generation worldwide
in natural disasters [25]. Energy, economy and GHG emissions analysis and this share is likely to increase in near future. Worldwide CO2 trend
shows that increase in GDP to a certain level results in reduction of is shown in Table 2 [34].
GHG emissions [26]. Researchers forecast decline of GHG emissions in Pakistan's GHG emissions include 158.10 Mt of CO2 (54%), 111.60
SAARC countries after certain level of development in economies of Mt of CH4 (36%), 27.90 Mt of N2O (9%), 2.17 Mt of CO (0.75) and 0.93
India, Pakistan and Bangladesh [27]. Concept of Kuznets curve using Mt of volatile organic carbon (VOC) (0.3%) [35]. Pakistan's accumu-
Johnson cointegration, Dickey-Fuller stationarity and Granger caus- lative CO2 emissions are likely to reach 250 Mt by 2020 which may
ality tests indicates that after development using coal power the causes grow to 650 Mt if subsidies continue on fossil fuels [36]. Energy and
of climate change can be reversed by awareness and technology transport sector contribute the largest share approximating half the
obtained during degradation process [24,28–30]. It is same as direct national GHG emissions of Pakistan, while the agricultural sector
foreign investments (DFI) increase debts but economic development contributes 39%, according to a 2008 national greenhouse gas inven-
done using this money helps pay the debts. tory [37,38]. Steel industry emits CO2 at a rate of 1.27 kg/kg steel. Steel
melting and rolling related CO2 emissions are shown in Table 3.
2. GHG emissions in Pakistan Pakistan produces 60% electricity using gas and furnace oil. CO2
emissions from The Kot Addu Power Company Limited (KAPCO), Bin
Pakistan mainly uses natural gas and furnace oil for power
generation. Pakistan has abundant reserves of coal but has not used
it for power generation. Most of the GHG emissions come from the Table 2
Trend of CO2 emission: world 1971–2020.
power sector. The industry and transport sectors are continuously
growing. Per capita CO2 emissions will increase from 858 kg/yr to Year 1971 2000 2010 2020
1650 kg/yr by 2030. Despite this growth, Pakistan's energy sector
would remain about one-third of global average in 2007. The CO2 CO2 emissions, Mt 13,654 22,639 27,453 32,728
Coal, % 38 39 37 37
emissions from the entire energy spectrum of Pakistan are shown in
Petroleum % 47 40 40 39
Fig. 1. Natural Gas % 15 21 23 24
The increase in agriculture, industry and energy consumption will

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Table 3
Steel related CO2 emissions.

Steel industry Year No. of facilities Total production Emission factor (kg CO2/kg Steel) CO2 emissions (tons)

Steel melting July ‘05–Nov ‘06 168 1,416,647 1.27 1,799,141.69

Steel re-rolling July ‘05–Nov ‘06 300 1,378,570 1.27 1,750,783.90

Table 4
GHG emissions in Pakistan [39].

Province City/District Source of emissions Apprx. emissions (Tons) Total Provincial Emissions (Million
Tons (Mt)

Sindh Dhabejihando Dhabeji Cement 380 11.04

Dadu Dadu Power 1934610
Ghotki Ghotki Ammonia 359
Hyderabad Hyderabad Power, Cement 174
Kalo Nooriabad Kahar Cement 484
Karachi Karachi Power, cement, ethanol, refineries, 4747123
ammonia and steel
Kashmore, Jacobabad Kashmore, Jacobabad Power 3517014
Kotri Jamshoro Power 322008
Mathelo, Ghotki Ghotki Ammonia 295
Sukkur Sukkur Power, Cement 517568
Thatta Thatta Cement 152

Punjab Chenki Khusshab Cement 304 10.1

Chakwal Chakwal Cement 273
Dera Gazi Khan Dera Gaz Khan refineries, Cement 858
Muzaffargarh Muzaffargharh Power, refineries 3384222
Faisalabad Faisalabad Power, ethanol, ammonia 544214
Farooka Sarghoda Power 297585
Goth Machhi Rahimyar khan Ammonia 588818
Iskanderabad Mianwali Cement, Ammonia 871
Jhang Jhang Ethanol 32
Kabirwalla Khanewaal Power 433580
Kot Addu Muzzafargarh Power 3477120
Lahore Lahore Power, Ethanol, Cement 651901
Morgah Rawalpindi Refineries 413
Multan Multan Ammonia 51
Sheikhupura Sheikhupura Ammonia 220
Nizampur Nowshera Cement 609
Pind Dadan Khan Jhelum Cement 243
Piranghaib Multan Power 176980
Sidhnai Barrage Khanewal Power 1158620
Jang, Attock Attock Power, Cement 4312
Wah Taxila Cement 456

Capital Territory Sangjani Islamabad Cement 304 0.3

Baluchistan Dera Jamalai Murad Nasirabad Power 1677810 3.17

Hub Lasbela Power 1059000
Hub, Lasbela Lasbela Cement 365
Panjgur Panjgur Power 985
Pasni Gwadar Power 930
Quetta Quetta Power 427026
Sub Gadani, Lasbella Lasbela Refineries 118

KPK Peshawar Peshawar Ethanol 5 1.58

Pezu Lakki Marwat Cement 637
Babri Banda Kohat Cement 273
Haripur Haripur Cement, Ammonia 274
Mardan Mardan Ethanol, cement 12
Nowshera Nowshera Cement 380

Qasim and Muzzaffar Garh independent power producer (IPPs) are 3.5,
3.1 and 2.5 Mt, respectively in 2005. Carbon dioxide emissions from
various sectors of the four provinces and the federal territory are shown
in Table 4 [39].
As the table shows, Sindh and Punjab are responsible for over 10
Mt of CO2 emissions each, followed by Baluchistan and Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa (KPK). The Federal territory has the least emissions,
yet other parts such as Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA),
Provincially Administered Tribal Areas (PATA), Gilgit Baltistan and
Kashmir remain unaccounted for. The above table gives an estimate of
the provincial emissions from various sources that result in a national
total of almost 25.95 Mt. But overall emissions, including all indepen-
dent and the affiliated areas, exceeds 305 MtCO2 [40]. Several areas
have often been ignored in assessing CO2 emissions due to various
reasons. Over 50% population lives below the poverty line. Cigarette
smoking leads to 0.59 t CO2-eq emissions per million cigarettes in
Pakistan. According to the Tobacco Atlas, 6.3 trillion cigarettes are
produced every year. At the global level, the cigarettes contribute to 3–

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4% annual deforestation and emit 26 kt of CO2 and 52 kt of CH4 Table 5

globally [41]. Installed 23,644 MW power generation capacity of Pakistan [50].
Total CO2 emissions are likely to increase after 2018 due to large
Thermal Renewable
scale coal power plants under construction in all provinces in Pakistan.
According to World Bank data on Pakistan's emissions the CO2 Type MW % Type MW %
emissions grew exponentially from 1965 to 2008 but the rate of
Thermal WAPDA 4720 19.76 Hydel WAPDA 6587 27.86
emissions flattened thereafter due to awareness and onset of load
Thermal KESC 2381 10.07 Hydel IPPs 129 0.55
shedding. Pakistan's per capita emissions reached 1 (168 Mt CO2-eq) in Thermal IPPsa 8560 36.20 Nuclear 787 3.33
2013 but thereafter declined to 0.7 in 2015 [3,42]. Studies on GHG Rental 374 1.58 Solar/Wind 106 0.45
emission in SAARC countries claim Pakistan's CO2 emissions were 200 Total 16035 67.61 Total 7609 32.19
Mt in 2006 which are likely to increase to 482 Mt by 2018. The a
Independent Power Producers (IPPs).
transport sector has added 30 Mt of CO2, which further increased due
to cheap oil in 2015/16 [43]. Pakistan's GHG emissions are annually
increasing at 6% (18.5 MtCO2) which are likely to grow exponentially these captive power plants is around 2000 MW. Also, a large number of
due to the construction of coal fired power plants that do not have solar power fed Uninterruptible Power Supply (UPS) systems are
carbon capture and storage facility. The high rate of CO2 emissions in operating in the country which also put the additional burden to the
energy and agriculture sectors demands immediate attention. national grid during cloudy weathers. Owing to heavy reliance on oil
and gas based thermal power plants, the power sector generates a huge
2.1. Power sector emissions portion of the GHG emissions. The energy sector and especially the
power sector has remained the major contributor to GHG emissions
The power and energy sector are the biggest contributors to GHGs with around 50% share. Installed capacity of Pakistan in 2013–14
in Pakistan and has prospects of abating GHGs by undertaking should have been 34,927 MW, whereas, current installed capacity is
alternative measures on the new wave of coal power plants. The 23,823 MW that indicates a shortage of 11,104 MW. The planned,
GHG contribution from the power plants can be estimated through installed capacity for 2019–20 is 63,000 MW which requires commis-
baseline emissions factor. The weighted average baseline emissions sioning of 39,177 MW more power plants by 2020. China is investing
factor for power sector in Pakistan is 0.566 t CO2/MW h for wind or $45 billion under China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) program
solar power projects and 0.478 t CO2/MW h for hydro power projects. out of which huge money will go to the energy sector in the form of coal
This baseline emissions factor can also be used for the amount of power plants [51]. Gawader to Kashghar route is most economic for
Certified Emission Reductions (CERs). The amount of CERs generated China through which she can import LNG and oil [52]. The Carbon
by an alternative renewable energy (ARE) projects has the prospects to Capture and Storage (CCS) technology must be integrated in coal
earn the carbon revenue streams as Indian Government claimed for the power projects in Gadani (Baluchistan), Thar (Sindh) and Sahiwal
Western Rivers. 75% of CO2, 20% of the CH4 and a large quantity of (Punjab). GHG emissions depending on type of power plant are shown
N2O emissions are generated by the industry [44]. The level of GHG in Fig. 2.
emissions without any clean energy project is also considered as the Global energy mix has the highest share of thermal power genera-
baseline scenario [45]. This baseline scenario determines the potential tion i.e. 70.5% with coal (51.5%), gas (16%), and oil (3%). The
of GHG abatement and capacity to generate Certified Emission mitigation strategies like carbon capture, storage and utilization should
Reductions (CERs) [46]. The generated CERs are a tradable commod- be incorporated into policy making to reduce GHG emissions and
ity, as defined by the Kyoto Protocol and United Nations Framework improve environment quality. The accurate forecasting of CO2 emis-
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) that gives additional capital sions from fossil fuel based energy consumption is a key requirement
flows into least developed countries, accelerates technology transfer, for making future energy policy and environmental strategy. GHG
and enables developing countries to leapfrog towards cleaner technol- emissions are likely to increase after 2018 due to large number of coal
ogies. Simple arithmetic shows that higher the baseline emission power plants currently under construction and will start feeding into
factors such as coal fired plants, higher the number of CERs can be the national grid in Pakistan. Owing to integration of large scale wind
generated from a clean energy project. The developed countries are farms and solar parks the net increase in GHG emissions on per capita
eager to finance the clean energy projects in the developing countries bases might not increase drastically.
with an intention to meet their emission reduction commitments under Sustainable energy economics deals with the analysis of environ-
the Kyoto Protocol and for the promulgation of the Conference of the mental friendly energy sources for society. It integrates the government
Parties, Twenty-first session (COP21), the Paris Agreement. policies, regulations, demand and supply response of the energy
Power Distribution Companies (DISCOs) supply power to all cities
of Pakistan except the metropolitan city of Karachi, which is supplied
by Karachi Electric Supply Company Limited KESC [47]. The system of
DISCOs and KESC are interconnected through Extra-High-Voltage
(EHV) transmission lines [48]. The national electricity mix includes
hydropower from dams, thermal power plants using oil, gas and
nuclear power plants. Almost 28.40% comes from hydropower,
67.82% by burning fossil fuels and remaining 3.78% from alternative
energy sources like renewable and nuclear [49]. The data indicate that
Pakistan's current total installed capacity for grid power supplies is
23,644 MW. The transmission network all over Pakistan except
Karachi Metropolitan city is being managed by National
Transmission and Despatch Company (NTDC), a federal entity. The
overall power generation capacity is shown in Table 5 [50].
Electricity demand in Pakistan is 19,735 MW during summer and
14,922 MW during the winter season. The captive power plant
statistics indicate that at present 42% of the manufacturing industries
have installed costly captive power plants. The approximate capacity of Fig. 2. CO2 emissions by power plant type.

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Table 6 Table 8
Energy economics of fuel systems on overnight capital cost basis of 2011 [53]. GHG emissions 2012–2030) abatement costs [56].

Fuel Overnight ($/kW) O & P Cost ($/MW h) Fuel Cost ($/MW h) Case CO2 (Mt) SO2 (kt) NO2 (kt)

Oil 1000 3.2 154.5 BAU 1580.01 7238.18 3581.86

Gas 550 1.8 35.8 NC 1796.90 8114.20 4184.59
Coal 1100 8.95 25.02 GF 1140.03 3646.40 2233.31
Biomass 2180 8.79 19.13 NC-BAU −216.90 −876.02 −602.73
Nuclear 2000 70 9.15 NC-GFS −656.87 −4461.80 −1951.28
Hydro 1970 4.51 – BAU abatement Rates 18.44 $/tCO2 4566.1 $/tSO2 6636.4 $/tNO2
Solar PV 2590 39 – BAU abatement costs $3.999 Billion $3.999 Billions $3.999 Billions
Wind 1480 22 – GF abatement Rates 3.04 $/t CO2 448.24 $/t SO2 1024.9 $/t NO2
GF abatement costs $2 billion $2 billion $2 billion

market. Pakistan's electricity demand will increase from 136 TW h in

2014 to 322 TW h by 2030. After long-hauled power management in Long range energy alternative planning (LEAP) Software is a useful
summer and gas management in winter the government has decided to tool for energy analysis. More than 190 countries worldwide have used
build coal power plants and import Liquefied natural gas (LNG). the LEAP software for alternative energy analyses. Perwez and Sohail
Pakistan was using oil and gas previously, now coal power plants are [56] analyzed energy economics and GHG emissions for alternative
under construction and this increased proportion of emissions rich fuels. Business as usual (BAU), new coal (NC) and green future (GF)
sources will adversely affect the environment quality. The energy scenario analyses showed that GHG abatement costs for GF scenario
economics of various fuels are shown in Table 6 [53]. are half of the BAU scenario as shown in Table 8.
GHG emissions depend on the type of fuel and technology used to It is time to revamp energy and property sector by learning,
produce electricity, heat or light. For a usual energy mix the electric adapting and thereby shifting to alternative fuels. We will have to
grid produces 6.89×10−4 t CO2/kW h. A coal power plant on average change the historical traditions such as burial practices and social
injects 3.81 Mt of CO2 each year into the atmosphere. A bulb replaced festivals. Housing societies may be built in hilly areas instead of fertile
with CFL reduces 3.83×10−2 tCO2. An average home produces 3.63 lands. Graveyards may be shifted to barren areas instead of the middle
t CO2 every year, whereas a country having 25 million homes produces of populated cities on useful agricultural lands. Islamabad is a small
65.78 Mt CO2 every year. Gasoline produces 8.887×10−3 t CO2/gallon city where 20% land between sectors is reserved for graveyards. These
of gasoline. A passenger vehicle, at rate of 4.20×10−4 t CO2/mile, have reached the limits for burial, and now further space should be
produces 4.75 t CO2/y. A rail car may produce 186 t CO2 in one year allocated keeping in view the population growth rate and demo-
and a Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) cylinder produces 0.024 t CO2. graphics.
One pound of coal produces 9.31×10−4 t CO2. Natural gas produces
5.3×10−3 t CO2/therm. Any tanker truck may produce 75.54 t CO2
2.2. Agriculture sector emissions
using oil, which produces 0.43 t CO2/barrel. An average tree absorbs
0.039 t CO2 in ten years. One acre forest absorbs about 1.33 t CO2 in
Pakistan is an agrarian country. The agriculture and livestock sector
one year. Global forests absorb about 200 Gt carbon each year but
contribute to 21% of the GDP, employ 45% of the labor force and add
return to the atmosphere after biodegradation. One ton of waste
to the foreign reserve of the country. In the last few decades, livestock
recycling instead of land filing saves 2.79 t of CO2. One truck of waste
has overtaken crops in the agricultural value addition [57]. GHG
recycled instead of land filling eliminates 19.51 t of CO2 [53].
emissions can be attributed in the form of population growth rate,
Combustion and life cycle based GHG emissions for various fossil fuels
improved living standards exhibited by higher per capita income and
and alternative energy sources are shown in Table 7.
the net revenue earned from exports [58]. Since most of the developing
Energy densities of coal, oil, hydrocarbon gases and uranium are
countries depend primarily on agriculture, the decreased productivity
26–34 MJ/kg, 45–51 MJ/kg, 45–50 MJ/kg and 81–83 TJ/kg.
of crop lands owing to the increased CO2 concentrations will negatively
Hydrogen (142 MJ/kg) and nuclear are good alternative fuels. Power
impact the socio-economic development. In the developing world, the
densities of wave, wind, solar, tidal, biomass and geothermal sources
tropical countries will be hit worst by the warming of climate that will
are 99, 2.9, 0.19, 0.0019, 0.000059 kW/m2. Wind and solar power
impair the production capability of their lands, the majority of which is
sources are increasing exponentially worldwide [55].
arid [59]. Pakistan has vast portion of its geography as arid land made
cultivable by extensive irrigation during the past century over the Indus
Table 7 basin. The emissions due to cultivation come from the flooded rice
GHG emissions of major fuels [54]. fields. The domestic cattle contribute to the emissions due to enteric
fermentation- process that occurs naturally among commonly reared
Fuel Phase Consumption based emissions Life cycle based emissions
cattle like goats, cows and sheep.
Fuels kg CO2/GJ Technology kg CO2/ Different animals produce different methane emissions dependent
MWhe upon their food intake and digestive systems, though the age of the
animal and amount of feed it consumes, are the primary factors. Along
Gas (20%) Natural gas 50.30 Wind 12
LPG 59.76 Methane 469 with the cattle, the other major source of emissions are the flooded rice
Propane 59.76 Solar PV 46 fields due to the anaerobic decomposition of organic matter in them
where the gas escapes by diffusion. Pakistan, India and Bangladesh are
Liquid (35%) Aviation gasoline 65.78 Hydro 4 major rice cultivating nations whose vast share of emissions comes
Vehicle gasoline 67.07 Wave/tide 8
Kerosene 68.36 Geothermal 45
from these rice fields. Livestock contributes approximately 67% emis-
Fuel oil 69.22 Solar Thermal 22 sions to agricultural sector while manure management is said to
contribute 6%. Methane is the major component of these emissions
Solid (36%) Wood 83.83 Biomass 18 [60]. The four sub sectors that contribute to the agriculture and
Bituminous 88.13 Nuclear 16
livestock sector emissions are shown in the pie chart of Fig. 3.
Lignite 92.43 Generator 1001
Anthracite 97.59 Pakistan's population will grow to 350 million by 2050 according to
some estimates. The market for agriculture and livestock is expected to

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N. Abas et al.
Fig. 3. Mix of GHGs within the livestock sector [61].
grow rapidly considering the economic growth expected by increased
trade especially under the umbrella of CPEC of the One Belt One Road
initiative. The areas for GHG reductions in Pakistan may include cattle
feed improvement, cropland management, reducing methane emis-
sions from rice cultivation, increasing productivity and efficiency.
Alternative Energy Development Board (AEDB), National Energy
Conservation Center (Enercon) and Ministry of Climate Change are
working in harmony with academia for energy conservation and
renewable energy enhancement. A choice of multi- nutrient feed blocks
can reduce up to 23% per cattle methane emissions. High protein feed
can increase cattle emissions by 40% at the expense of extra 85%
energy in raising cattle [62]. Nitrous oxide emissions can be reduced by
better soil, water, and fertilizer management.
Pakistan needs to improve its irrigation techniques, fertilizer and
manure management, plant residue and solid waste management to
increase efficiency and reduce emissions. Genetic engineering of the
rice verities can be done to reduce methane emissions from the paddy
crops. Moreover, burning of leftover wheat and rice straw, cotton sticks
increases overall GHG emissions [62,63]. Pakistan is among the biggest
milk producers globally, yet her milk productivity is lower which can be
improved by taking better care of animals and especially changing the
domestic feed proportions. The tube wells in production and usage are
not competitively energy efficient and can be improved by using
efficient motor pumps or alternative technologies. Pakistan is and
agrarian country and effect on agricultural production has already
started affecting mass population groups [64]. Due to increased
deforestation, the GHG and other emissions of Pakistan continue to
grow at an alarming pace. There is no sufficient national action plan to
combat these increasing emissions. Preemptive response needs to be
taken by adopting climate change mitigation policies, building warning
and relief systems, increasing awareness, fighting deforestation, em-
ploying technologies to reduce emissions from major producers like
power plants and building human capital in this field of study.
However, due to lack of good governance, the performance of these
measures is destined to be abysmal. The financial assistance and aid
from donor's countries and organizations have increased sevenfold,
though a minute portion of this goes to independent and neutral bodies
capable of implementing grassroots level changes.
The Pakistani dilemma is twofold; improving individual response
towards fighting emissions and creating a national agenda that gives
impetus to integrate all actions on a broad scale towards national
improvement [65]. KPK Government has completed one billion trees
initiative at rate of 2700 plants per acre to increase forests. The survival
rate of trees was found to be 75–85%. The Federal government has also
started a 257 million trees project. There is an acute shortage of forests
in Punjab, Sindh and Baluchistan. Pakistan plans to cut carbon
emissions by 30% by 2025 [65,66]. The forests uptake about 33% of
anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions and the rest goes to atmo-
sphere and lakes. By protecting forests, local ecosystems and planting
new trees on war footing, Pakistan can substantially reduce her GHG
emissions. These forests also protect from soil erosion and flooding.
The tree borders break the winds and hence damage from summer
storms can be minimized. Study of Dir District KPK reveals net
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Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 80 (2017) 990–1016
13,506Kt and 5,453Kt of CO2 is sequestered in forests [66].
2.3. Cement/fire Kiln industry emissions
Cement industries produce heat for their processes by burning
fossil fuels that release enormous amounts of CO2. The emissions can
be reduced by substituting clinker with other additives and using
renewable and alternative fuels. The CO2 emissions result from
calcination process and the burning of fossil fuels. Calcination involves
conversion of calcium carbonate into lime. Calcination produces almost
50% of emissions while the fossil based combustion accounts for
almost 35%. The Cement industry accounts for 12% of total energy
use in Malaysia, 15% in Iran and 12–15% in Pakistan due to being a
major ingredient for construction purposes [67]. Coal, fuel oil and
petroleum coke are mostly used. However, usage of natural gas and
alternative fuels has also been reported globally [68]. Cement manu-
facturing sector is responsible for 7% of global GHG emissions [69].
Global CO2 emissions are 39.6 Gt CO2/y out of which 2.8 Gt CO2/y is
from cement industries. Pakistan's annual CO2 emissions from cement
industries are 36.3 MtCO2.
Use of fossil fuels is increasing in cement production due to
rampant rise in the population and associated construction activities
[70]. If the wood is used for house construction then a lot of carbon can
be sequestered. Cement clinkers are made by heating raw material in a
kiln. Limestone, clay, bauxite, iron ore and sand are heated at high
temperature in a kiln to produce clinker. Clinker production process
emits CO, CO2, NOx (NO & NO2), SO2, & CxHy flue gases. Pakistan
produces 43.45 Mt clinker per annum; which at a rate of 856 kgCO2 per
ton of clinker emits 36.3 Mt of CO2. Coal is widely used in cement and
kiln industry. Clinker production in Pakistan is shown in Table 9.
By using waste and biomass as sources of energy, cement industry
can achieve multiple feats. These include energy conservation, emis-
sions reduction, low cost, reduced usage of fossils fuels and conse-
quently meeting global emissions reductions targets. Carbon capture
and storage can be employed via post-combustion and oxy fuel
combustion. Replacing lime with other calcium containing raw materi-
als also has positive effect on reducing emissions in both process stage
and fuel combustion stage of clinker production. Cement industries are
one of the primary sources of CO2 production everywhere. There are
several ways to capture CO2 from cement industries [72].
2.4. Transport sector emissions in Pakistan
Transportation sector results in emissions of CO2 due to combus-
tion of fossil fuels. The air pollutants depend upon different factors
including vehicle type and size (heavy-duty trucks, light-duty trucks,
cars, buses, etc.), age and accumulated mileage of vehicles, type of fuel
used, ambient weather conditions, and maintenance conditions of
vehicles. According to World Bank CO2 emissions in Pakistan were
reported 163.18 Mt in 2008 which increased to 16.45 Mt in 2014 due
to increased consumption of solid, liquid and gas fuels. The amount of
CO2 emitted by a vehicle is directly related to the amount of fuel it
consumes. A car emitting 130 g of CO2 per km would consume a fuel of
5.2 l to travel 100 km. During 1990–2007 overall greenhouse gas
emission have decreased by 15% and in the same era increased to
36% by the transport sector. The autos are responsible for 12% of the
aggregate CO2 outflows and are the biggest single wellspring of
aggregate transport discharges. Because of the increased amount of
personal and freight transport, the vehicle efficiency has improved, but
emission from transport has also increased. In the past decade, many
vehicles have switched to compressed natural gas (CNG) to a great
extent because of the value differentials between costs of oil and gas.
Up till December 2009, Pakistan had the highest amount of natural gas
vehicles in the world as 2.3 million vehicles are running on CNG. Using
CNG in vehicles is less polluting than petrol and diesel as emissions
from CNG vehicles consist of carbon monoxide and water vapors. The
N. Abas et al. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 80 (2017) 990–1016

Table 9 lightweight by reducing the weight of construction material. Electric

Clinker production in Pakistan in 2015–16 [71]. propulsion systems, biofuels, fuel cells and use of solar energy are all
steps to improve electric efficiency. For routes less than 800 km railway
Sr. No Name of unit Clinker (Tons) Cement (Tons)
system can be improved and used as an alternative for air flight.
1. Askari Cement Limited - Wah 1050000 1102500 Conversion of CO2 into synthetic fuels is another possible route
2. Al-Abbas Cement Limited - 900000 945000 towards sustainable future.
Nooriabad, Dadu
3. Askari Cement - Nizampur 1500000 1575000
4. Attock Cement Pakistan - Hub 1710000 1795500 3. Local, regional and global GHG emissions
Chowki, Lasbela
5. Bestway Cement Limited - Hattar 117000 1228500 Greenhouse emissions include water vapors (H2O), carbon dioxide
6. Bestway Cement Limited – Chakwal 3428571 3600000 (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), ozone (O3) and chloro-
7. Bestway - Mustehkum Cement 1035000 1086750
fluorocarbons (CFCs). Contributions of GHG are 36–72% (H2O), 9–
Limited - Hattar
8. Cherat Cement Company Limited- 1050000 1102500 26% (CO2), 4–9% (CH4), 3–75% (O3) and rest (CFCs). Global warming
Nowshera potentials (GWP) of CO2, CH4, N2O, CFC-12, NF3 and SF6 for the first
9. Dandot Cement Limited - Jehlum 480000 504000 20 years in the atmosphere are 1, 72, 289, 11,000, 12,300 and 16,300
10. Dewan Hattar Cement Limited - 1080000 1134000
respectively. Lives of CO2, N2O, CH4, CFC-12, NF3 and SF6 are 30–95,
Hattar
11. Dewan Hattar Cement Limited - 1680000 1764000 12, 114, 100, 740 and 3200 years, respectively. Some CFCs have
Dhabeji 10,000 to 50,000 year life span with a GWP of 18,200–32,000.
12. D.G.Khan Cement Limited - D.G. 2010000 2110500 Atmospheric concentrations of CO2, CH4, N2O, O3 and CFCs are
Khan 400 ppm, 1.893 ppm, 326 ppb, 337ppb and 1.5 ppb respectively. COx
13. D.G.Khan Cement Limited - Chakwal 2010000 2110500
are produced by combustion of fossil fuels, wood and biomasses. SO2 is
14. Fauji Cement Company Limited - 3270000 3433500
Fateh Jang produced during combustion of fossil fuels in plants (70%), industry
15. Fecto Cement Limited - Sangjani 780000 819000 (15%), vehicles (8%), waste (5%) and others (2%). NOx are produced
16. Flying Cement Limited - Lilla 1140000 1197000 during combustion processes in vehicles (7%), industry (7%), plants
17. GharibWal Cement Limited - Jehlum 2010000 2110500
(4%), waste (2%) and 80% of natural causes. Although, concentrations
18. Kohat Cement Company Limited - 2550000 2677500
Kohat
of CFCs are smaller but their GWP is 10–32 thousand times higher
19. Lafarge Pakistan Cement Limited - 1950000 2047000 than CO2 over the life cycle. Radiative forcing powers (W/m2) of
Chakwal various greenhouse gases are shown in Fig. 4.
20. Lucky Cement Limited - Pezu 3605714 3786000 CO2 is emitted during life giving process. World population exhales
21. Lucky Cement Limited - Indus 3428571 3600000
about 2.6 Gt CO2 annually, which is part of nature. Water vapors and
Highway, Karachi
22. Maple Leaf Cement Factory Limited - 3210000 3370500 ozone are also part of nature, we have to reduce the emissions due to
Daudkhel our activities. Continued emissions would increase the temperature
23. Pioneer Cement Limited - Khushab 1933571 2030250 and raise the sea level. World electricity generation capacity has
24. Thatta Cement Limited - Thatta 46500 488250
increased to 23.54 PW h and total energy consumption to 13.5 Giga
Total 43446428 45618750
tons of oil equivalents GTOE. British Petroleum (BP) direct GHG
emissions were 59.8 Mte in 2012 which have declined to 48.6 Mte of
carbon monoxide content in CNG exhaust is 90% less than found in CO2 yet global GHG emissions are increasing. Global annual GHG
gasoline (petrol) exhausts. Due to depleting natural gas resources in emissions have surpassed 40 GtCO2 rate. Global renewable energy
Pakistan use of CNG vehicles is not expected to continue. Road generation is 320 MTOe, which is just a fraction of total consumed
transport contributes about one-fifth of the total emissions of CO2, energy. There is a natural link between energy, resources and environ-
the primary greenhouse gas. While these emissions fell by 3.3% in ment as shown in Fig. 5.
2012, they are still 20.5% higher than in 1990. Transport is the only Combustion of fossil fuels contributes about 57% of GHG emission,
major sector where greenhouse gas emissions are still rising [73]. agriculture and Land use, land‐use change, and forestry (LULUCF)
The transport sector contributes 24% of carbon dioxide emissions. have a share of almost 28%. Mining and processing of materials use
The emissions are caused by sea travel (10%), rail (2%), buses (6%), 10% of primary energy. Biofuels use 2% of the global land. Agriculture
wheelers (2%), passenger cars (45%), trucks (23%), local (5%) and uses 70% water and 1% is used in fossil fuel refining. Oil and gas
international (7%) air. Airplanes inject GHG emissions directly into the industry uses 5% of the World steel production. Annual mean change
heart of atmosphere. We can reduce carbon dioxide emission due to in temperature and precipitation manifests in climate change affecting
transportation by increasing light duty vehicles, carbon dioxide label- humans, animals and plants [75]. Climate change and pollutants affect
ing of cars, and better fuel quality. 15% of the emissions of CO2 are all forms of life [76]. Climate change effects include heat and cold
produced by light duty vehicles. Heavy duty vehicles are responsible for waves, reduction in food crops, extreme animal behaviors and the
one-fourth of the carbon dioxide emissions from road transport and 6% extinction of most affected species.
of total emissions. The high proportion of 2 stroke rickshaws and The global climate change is a multivariable dependent complex
chingqi's common in Pakistan add to the environmental stress. Fuel phenomenon. Leading climate change research institutes use general
quality is an important element in reducing greenhouse gas emissions circulation or climate model (GCM) to forecast future events. Hadley
from transport. Average emissions of passenger cars are shown in Center for Climate Prediction and Research has coupled atmospheric
Table 10 [54]. GCM (AGCM) and oceanic GCM (OGCM) to develop AOGCM. The
The number of automobiles in the world is increasing rapidly. climate models use quantitative and statistical methods and data to
About 40% of oil is used in cars and rest 60% in power plants. Cars with simulate effects of the drivers of climate in the atmosphere, oceans,
greater fuel efficiency must be used or electric vehicles charged by lands and ice surfaces [77]. All climate models include solar radiations
electricity generated by wind turbines. 90% of the global transport are and earth emissions into account to analyze global energy balance.
carried through international shipping. In order to reduce carbon According to latest energy flow statistics of solar radiations consist of
dioxide emission better route planning is required in this way CO2 235 W/m2 intensities out of which 67 is absorbed in the atmosphere
emission can be reduced to 10–15%. Hybrid wind and solar can be and 168 W/m2 reach earth surface. In response to solar radiations
used for better system efficiency. Passenger planes can be made earth emits 492 W/m2 thermal radiations out of which 350 is absorbed
in the atmosphere and 40 escapes into space. Out of 519 W/m2 energy

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N. Abas et al. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 80 (2017) 990–1016

Table 10
Average emission and fuel consumption for passenger cars [54].

Pollutant/Fuel Emission and fuel consumption rates (per mile driven) Calculation Annual GHG emission/fuel consumption

VOC 1.034 g (g) (1.034 g/ml)×12,000 ml/yr)×(1 lb/454 g) 27.33 lb

THC 1.077 g (1.077 g/ml)×12,000 ml/yr)×(1 lb/454 g) 28.47 lb
CO 9.400 g (9.400 g/ml)×12,000 ml/yr)×(1 lb/454 g) 248.46 lb
NOX 0.693 g (0.693 g/ml)×12,000 ml/yr)×(1 lb/454 g) 18.32 lb
PM10 0.0044 g (0.0044 g/ml)×12,000 ml/yr)×(1 lb/454 g) 0.12 lb
PM2.5 0.0041 g (0.0041 g/ml)×12,000 ml/yr)×(1 lb/454 g) 0.11 lb
CO2 368.4 g (368.4 g/ml)×12,000 ml/yr)×(1 lb/454 g) 9737.44 lb
Gasoline Consumption 0.04149 gallons (gal) (12,000 ml/yr)×(24.1 ml/gal) 497.93 gal

Fig. 4. Radiative forcing powers (W/m2) of greenhouse gases.

Fig. 6. Wind flow pattern in Southeast Asia [78].

Fig. 5. Energy, resources and environment [74].
195 is going to space and 324 heat flux is radiated back to the earth.
Overall energy exchange between earth and atmosphere is 492 W/m2
which, according to NASA has net difference of 0.5 W/m2.
Fossil fuels are a major source of GHG emissions worldwide. China
and India use 70–80% coal to meet their electricity demand. Chinese
annual CO2 emissions (10.54 GtCO2) surpassed USA (5.33 GtCO2)
emissions about one decade ago. Indian CO2 emissions are 2.34 Gt
CO2, which are highest in Southasia among the SAARC countries.
Summer monsoons sweep all the haze and smog from India and China
into Pakistan and north western states. Pakistan is affected by
emissions from China and India. Natural wind flow patterns shift
pollutants into downwind countries. In Southasia, the natural winds
enter from southwest, flow over India turning west to enter into
Pakistan as shown in Fig. 6 [78].
Rising power demands for growing upwind economies are being
met with coal fired power plants which inject pollutants in the
atmosphere flowing to downwind countries. Summer monsoons con-
centrate Chinese and Indian coal fired plant smog and black carbon
particles on Himalayas, which accelerates glacier thawing due to
blackbody action of carbon particles. Wind pattern reverses in winter
so smog and haze causes breathing problems in China as well as India.
Natural summer monsoons sweep all atmospheric pollutants into
Pakistan. A hiatus in winds wreaked havoc of heat waves in 2015
which killed 1200 people. Pakistan spends extra 400 billion on health
issues related to smog triggered diseases. Pakistan cannot demand
compensation from China due to sweet relations and India due to bitter
relations. NASA satellite image explaining the flow of pollutants from
China and India into Pakistan is shown in Fig. 7.
Northern regions of Pakistan are naturally subjected to western
wind and central regions to trade winds. Summer monsoon cause rain
in India and Pakistan. Fast winds cool oceans to cause rains but slow
winds cause famines. In the Pacific Ocean, winds flow toward
Indonesia but sometimes after a few years start flowing to Americas
leading to evolution of El-Nino phenomenon causing cold wave in three
continents. El-Nino phenomenon disturbed western winds in India and
Pakistan triggering anti cyclonic systems and jet streams causing small
scale precipitations in northern regions in 2015. Indian GHG emissions
are more than rest all seven SAARC countries. Both big carbon GHG
emitters are located upwind of Pakistan that causes regional global
warming. The public demands right to penalize upwind polluters under

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N. Abas et al.
Fig. 7. Flow of smog and haze from India to Pakistan [79].
the Polluter Pays Principle in harmony with international trans-
boundary laws. The benefits of energy production go to polluters, and
negative consequence becomes the fate of poor masses in affected
countries. Top two emitters in Asia, India and China, share border with
Pakistan, natural downwind monsoons and trade winds cause local
warming in Pakistan. Climate change is global issue which requires
local actions. Local actions in downwind places need collaboration and
cooperation of upwind countries [75,77,78,80–85]. Artificial photo-
synthesis and nuclear fusion technologies hold the key to the elixir of
infinite energy [86,87].
The ultimate solution for climate change is to capture CO2 and use
it as a renewable energy resource [88]. Cold water molecules in the air
absorb carbon dioxide to affect the water cycle. A sudden hiatus in the
monsoon winds triggers heat wave. Top GHG emitting countries are
not in the list of the top climate change affected countries. It is the
responsibility of oil producers and consumers to maintain a fund at the
IPCC level to relieve the climate change affected countries rather than
expanding funds for further explorations. All the SAARC countries have
negligible GHG emissions, except India. India is world's fourth biggest
GHG emitter producing 2.34 Gt of CO2 preceded by China (1.54 Gt),
US (5.33 Gt) and EU (3.41 Gt), and followed by Russia (1.77 Gt), Japan
(1.28 Gt) and Germany (0.77 Gt). Sum of GHG emissions, GDPS and
populations of all the seven SAARC countries is less than India. Trends
in CO2 emissions, GDPs and populations in India, Pakistan,
Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are shown Fig. 8.
A Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution
(CLRTAP) type agreement was signed by SAARC countries under
Malé Declaration in Maldives under cooperative environment program
(SACEP) [89]. Male Declaration focuses on dry and wet pollutions, but
the data also aids in the understanding of local and cross border
pollution transfer. Under this agreement respirable suspended parti-
culate matter (PM10), total suspended particulate matter (TSPM), SO2
and NO2 under dry and wet deposition conditions are monitored.
Monitoring stations in Kulna (Bangladesh), Gelephu (Bhutan),
Hanimaadhu (Maldives), Rampur (Nepal), Port Canning (India),
Dutuwewa (Sri Lanka), Bahawalnagar (Pakistan), and Chamsari
(Iran) have been established under this agreement. The highest
measured levels of O3, SO2 and NO2 (μg/m3) in concerned countries
are shown in Fig. 9.
Spatial measurements point towards the high radiative forcing
potential concentrations of CO2, CH4, N2O and halocarbons in the
subcontinent, yet these long living green gases have not been included
in the air pollution monitoring program. Smog is a dangerous
combination of smoke and fog that smothers sunlight across Asia
especially during winter season [13]. SAARC countries include
Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka.
Bhutan and Maldives have almost zero GHG emissions. Nepal and Sri
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Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 80 (2017) 990–1016
Lanka have negligible 0.1% GHG emissions. None of the big GHG
emitters is a victim of the climate change like top ten affected countries.
Kyoto Protocol does not require SAARC countries to reduce GHG
emissions, yet some of them have started reduction programs to get
carbon credits and new technologies [91]. SAARC countries accumu-
lative CO2 emissions are 6.9% of global emissions of which 69% are
Chinese GHG emissions. Indian carbon dioxide emissions are 82.61%
of all the seven SAARC countries. SAARC countries’ emissions, despite
renewable energy revolution, increased 11% during 1990–2008 [24]. It
is hard to breathe in bazaars due to generators, smoke and noise in
Pakistan. Energy crisis and load shedding lead to combustion of wood
and oil resulting in higher GHG emissions [92]. GHG emissions of
Bangladesh and Pakistan are 0.3% and 0.7%, which are much lesser
than India's 5.7% emissions as shown in Table 11.
SAARC countries experience shows the GHG emissions increase
with GDP growth during the transition from underdeveloped to
developed status. Foreign investors cluster in the region due to lose
environmental laws, yet the situation reverses after development under
Environmental Kuznets Curve [93]. Long term relationship between
economic growth and environmental quality is an inverted U-shape
curve. This conclusion is true for the SAARC countries as well as in
others [94]. SAARC countries use coal, oil and natural gas in electricity,
iron and steel industry sectors [95]. SAARC countries have huge
hydropower potential which can be harvested by mutual cooperation
like pollution monitoring under Male Convention. The IPCC, in COP21
France, concluded that the 2 °C temperature rise limit requires global
GHG emissions reductions of 40–70% by 2050 compared to 2010.
SAARC countries have declared their intended nationally determined
contributions (INDC) against climate change. The USA promised to cut
26–28% emissions from 2005 level by 2025, EU pledged to cut 40%
emissions from 1990 level by 2030, China agreed to cut 60–65% from
2005 level by 2030 by adding renewable energy, Pakistan intends to
reduce 25% emissions by 2030 and Bangladesh declared to cut 15% by
2030 [96]. The underdeveloped nations require foreign aid to achieve
these goals due to deficit of technology and technical personnel in
addition to being hit worst by climate change.
Chinese energy consumption has increased from 650 million tonnes
coal equivalent (Mtce) in 2001 to 1500 Mtce in 2011 after entry into
the World Trade Organization (WTO). Chinese industrial emissions are
about 50% of total Chinese GHG emissions, which are continually
increasing and likely to peak by 2030 [97]. Chinese HVDC power line
projects under the national decarburization policy are good steps yet
report of 5.8–16 mg/kg uranium in the few coal fields seems to be on
the higher side [98]. The uranium content in American coals is less
than 4 mg/kg, which should be even lesser. China plans to build 300–
400 nuclear reactors in the seismic coastal region for 350 GW by 2050.
300 Chinese nuclear plants and dozens of Indian dams on slopes of the
Himalayas are vulnerable to earthquake [99]. China and India produce
GHG, smog and the hazy clouds, which flow through summer monsoon
towards neighboring countries. Indian coal and Chinese nuclear booms
threaten South Asian regional as well as global security. World
community produces 50% power from coal plants which mix uranium
content in haze and smog that we inhale. The energy sector, both heat
and power, emits 45% of total GHG emissions. Indian transport sector
found 124 kg CO2 out of total 135 kg GHG emissions of the transport
sector in 2011 [100]. This is the situation which deserves application
polluter pays principle. Uranium free coal combustion seems even
more urgent requirement than carbon capture and storage due to
health concerns. Biomass pyrolysis offers an alternative to coal through
syngas, bio-oil and biochar pathways [101]. Human exposure to
combustion gases and particles from indoor burning can be 100 fold
higher than pollutants in the open air. Dichloromethane extract is 97%
of cow dung which is carcinogenic. Hard fast burning fuel produces
lesser pollutants than soft, slow burning fuels. Recent studies show
ethanol produces more GHG than gasoline [102].
N. Abas et al. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 80 (2017) 990–1016

Fig. 8. CO2 emissions, economic and population growth trends in four SAARC countries [63].

4. Socioeconomic impacts of climate change

Weather extremities affect people due to high energy prices.

Earthquakes shatter buildings, exposing public to severe weather
conditions. According to Alberta Energy Report, 4–5 Richter scale
tremors shock Canadian City Focus during hydraulic digging for shale
oil. Three to four children died in the Thar Desert everyday due to
famine in summer of 2016 and thousands in Punjab by dengue and
swine flu. The increased temperature, floods and shift in monsoon
patterns has severely affected agricultural produce in Pakistan.
Children and elder persons fall prey to snake bite during floods,
hypothermia in cold and hyperthermia in heat waves. 111 out 1000
children die in their first year due to lack of access to health facilities,
contaminated waters, polluted airs and fake food products. Rising
Arabian Sea level (6 mm/y) guzzles 350 km region in Sindh and
Baluchistan. Life and property losses due to floods inflict losses of
Fig. 9. Maximum quantities of pollutants in SARC countries [90]. billion dollars. World stores 40 million acre feet (MAF) out of every 100
MAF flood waters while a lack of consensus on Dams wastes worth
Table 11 $132 billion value every year. India has built the Baglihar Dam on
Carbon dioxide emissions of SAARC countries [92]. Chenab River to constrict normal flow of 65,000 Cusecs to 6000
Cusecs, which affects agriculture sector in normal days while drowns
SAARC Countries Mt CO-eq % of Global % of Global Per
standing ripe crops in flood waters during heavy rains especially during
Emissions Emissions Capita
summer monsoons.
Bangladesh 487.5 0.3 0.9
Bhutan 1.41 0 0.6
India 2432 5.7 1.7 4.1. Climate change effect on society
Maldives 1.16 0 2.4
Nepal 37.37 0.1 1.5 The infectious diseases, transform into epidemics through patho-
Pakistan 304.85 0.7 1.9
gens (agents), vectors (hosts) and transmission environment. The
Sri Lanka 41.37 0.1 0.7
China 9679 22.7 5.5 pathogens (virus, bacterium, parasite or fungi) are carried by vectors
or intermediate hosts to complete their life cycle [103]. An ecosystem is
a community of living and nonliving entities that thrive via the natural
cycles. These biotic and abiotic components are linked together
through natural energy flows. There is a strong connection between
climate change and evolution of diseases. The combined effect of

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Fig. 11. Zika, dengue and mosquitos attack 24/7/365 days.

found drying up to extinction. Swine flu, bird flu and dengue viruses

are attacking people in Pakistan. These contagious diseases killed
hundreds of people in populated cities. At few places dengue has killed
thousands of people in recent years. Dengue has been found to erupt in
Fig. 10. Climate change, infectious diseases and human society.
one populated area of the city. Analysts guess it may be bioterrorism
spread by hostile forces. Mosquito, Zika and Dengue attack at night,
temperature and humidity is worse than temperature or humidity day, dawn and dusk as shown in Fig. 11.
alone. Sunshine duration and temperature, multiply cholera in the In addition to transboundary wind and water flows, human, animal
aquatic environment [104]. Winds, human and bird migrations spread and bird migrations spread the diseases worldwide. Swine flu virus (A
pathogens to remote places. Winds transport infectious diseases, & C) can attack animals and survive in the air for a long time.
viruses, cultivable fungi and bacteria across oceans by dust particles Migration of Spanish people to Americas killed thousands of Americans
[105]. These changes affect survival, reproduction and distribution of by measles. Large scale migration of Afghans into Pakistan aggravated
pathogens, hosts and transmission means. Spatiotemporal shift polio disease. Current migration of Arabs into Europe and future
changes geographic and seasonal patterns, outbreak frequency and migration of Chinese into Pakistan might spread foreign diseases. Sars,
severity levels. Climate change causes infectious diseases like malaria, J-virus and other animal borne diseases often erupt in wild animal
plague, typhoid, dengue and yellow fevers by affecting viruses, bacter- eating societies. Airports have no health security checks and people
ium, parasites and fungi hosts like insects, animals, bugs and plants as move across borders unchecked every day. Local climate change
shown in Fig. 10. spreads the epidemic locally, which due to natural processes and
Two types of natural ecosystems include terrestrial and aquatic human movement propagates worldwide.
ecosystems. The terrestrial ecosystem encompasses forests, desert,
grassland and mountain ecosystems. The aquatic ecosystem consists
4.2. Climate change effect on forest trees
of the marine (Benthic, deep water, estuaries, coral and hydrothermal
vents, etc) and freshwater (Lentic, latic and wetland) ecosystems.
Animal brain is controlled by inputs of five senses, but trees use
Climate change has already degraded 60% (15/24) recognized ecosys-
direct alert communication system. Trees have no brain, but their cells
tem services [106]. Climate change causes widespread alterations in
are surrounded by ions which transmit signals between roots and
temperature, sunshine, precipitation, humidity, winds and pollutants.
leaves. Walking trees (Socratea exorrhiza) may change their location
Temperature affects diseases through a change in the life cycle of
through newer roots toward sunlight. When insects start biting a leave
pathogens as these can survive in a certain temperature range.
it alerts other leaves which start producing poisonous fluid against
Mosquito development ceases when the temperature exceeds 33–
insects and caterpillars. Flow of ionic currents may be detected by a clip
39 °C [107]. The incubation period of malaria parasite (p.
on magnetic field sensors. Trees are sensitive to climate and store
Falciparum) reduces from 26 days at 20 °C to 13 days at 25 °C [108].
environmental information in the form of rings. Long life trees hold
Rain affects fecal pathogens and humidity affects influenza virus
information of earlier decades and centuries in the form of rings
transmission and survival [109]. During Pleistocene to Holocene
thickness and diameters [112]. A six centuries old 379.1 feet tall,
transition process, 17 species of birds disappeared. When humans
Hyperion tree stands in Red Wood National Park USA and several
appeared 22 species of reptiles, birds and mammals vanished again
lower height thousands of years old trees are found in parts of the
[110]. Climate change affects all forms of life. The Impact of climate
world. Tree rings and ice cores are two primary sources of past climate
change on human health has been described extensively in the
information. Impact of climate change on cherry [113], oak [76],
literature [78]. Acidic oceans and plastic entanglements have exposed
rosewood and acacia trees [114] and others [115] have been reported
marine life to high survival risks. The climate change process has
worldwide. It is important to understand the pathology how the climate
triggered thawing of glaciers in the Himalayan region among which is
affects plants and animals.
the longest glacier outside the Polar Regions. Glaciers meltdown and
Major forest trees like rosewood, mulberry and oak (thorn-wood)
monsoon waters in rivers exert more weight on the Indian plate to
are under survival threat since 2008. Precious hardwood trees were
accelerate its speed to Eurasian plate causing severe earthquakes in
firstly noted dying up from top to bottom about a decade ago in 1997.
Pakistan, India, Nepal and Afghanistan [111]. It is amazing to note the
Rosewood (Dalbergia sissoo or shishum grows naturally in India,
frequency of earthquake events has increased in Southeast Asia. Global
Pakistan and Afghanistan), oak (Acacia nilotica or Quercus pubescens
warming started worsening temperature cycle in South East Asia,
L. in the Fabaceae family occurring in West Asia: India, Pakistan and
especially, in Pakistan from −19 °C (winter) to +53 °C (summer) in the
Afghanistan etc), mulberry (Beenleigh black, white Shahtoot, Dwarf red
last decade. Past eleven years, 1997–2008, were recorded as the
shahtoot, Angela) and paper mulberry (wild imported toot) have been
warmest years with highest atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Forrest
dying since 1997 in Punjab (Pakistan) [114]. Foresters and agricultur-
trees along the banks of the world's largest canal system in Punjab were
alists believe high temperature and CO2 concentration affects trees

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N. Abas et al.
Fig. 12. Attacks on oak (left) and rosewood trees (right), Pakistan.
Fig. 13. Annual mean temperature change in Pakistan [120].
[116,117]. Several species of animals and plants have started disap-
pearing from the surface of our green planet due to increasing CO2
concentrations and temperatures under global warming. Some families
of trees such as oak and rosewood have been found drying up to
extinction from 1999 to 2008 in hot humid areas of Punjab (Pakistan).
Farmers who live close to trees can easily note the growth abnormal-
ities. It has been observed in Pakistan that several stems of rosewood
dried up as well as of oak and many others are drying up now. The trees
were affected by high CO2 or temperature surges (51–52 °C) from 1998
to 2005. It was noted all the trees dry up from top to bottom which was
explained in detail in our earlier work is shown in Fig. 12 [114].
The hot summer is believed to bring different species of insects on
trees and gradually they fall victim to their acute attack. Beetles and
wasps start eating part of tree stem touching the ground. They start
dwelling in stem cavities. They gradually eat up the xylem and water
uptake is affected and paper mulberry (pollen), rosewood, oak and
mulberry start drying up from the top to bottom. The rosewood and
oak are under severest attack, fruit mulberry under mild and paper
mulberry under relatively little attack. Almost over 60% of rosewood
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Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 80 (2017) 990–1016
and oak trees have died and remaining under 40% jungles are severely
affected. Some centuries old conifer trees are also under severe survival
threat as high temperature affects plant growth [118]. Several countries
have studied these trees as standalone international asset telling the
history of past centuries. Tree dying threat by insect attack on leaves
and stem is not only limited to Pakistan but also to several other
countries. It is another evidence of continued disappearance of trees
from planet Earth. A vast jungle has dried up only in two years.
Furthermore, it was noted the dying trees had insect attack proven in
the form of wood debris and mud mixture rubble in stem eaten cavities.
It was noted rosewood and oak trees were affected almost simulta-
neously whether planted on canal banks (plenty of water) or remote
traffic highways. Even trees planted on river side jungles were also
affected. These trees have continuously been dying since 1997 to date.
However, few trees in the same constellation remained quite healthy
and alive, which means high CO2 concentrations and temperatures
affect various plants differently [119]. Drivers of climate change
include a rampant rise in CO2 concentrations due to burning fossil
fuels, aerosol emissions from various sources, cement production,
N. Abas et al.
Fig. 14. Annual thunderstorm days from 1991 to 2000 [124].
ozone depletion, animal based agriculture and deforestation. Cattle
emit methane and humans emit CO2. Methane has higher warming
potential than carbon dioxide. Plants prefer human breath generated
wet CO2 compared to fossil fuels emitted CO2. Impact of climate
change leads to displacement of communities, the migration of birds,
disruption of communications by landslides, loss of agriculture land by
erosion and the rise of sea level, damage to coastal infrastructure and
marine habitat, widespread diseases during floods and natural cala-
mities. The average increase in annual mean temperature in various
parts of Pakistan is shown in Fig. 13 [43].
The annual earthquake frequency has increased in Pakistan in the
last decade. Experts claim the climate change also increase earthquake
incidences [111]. Monsoon lightning activity has increased in both
Pakistan and India in the last decade. Natural conversion of nitrogen
into nitrous oxide and oxygen into ozone by lightning accelerates
climate change. On August 2015, 32 persons died in India with
lightning strikes [121]. The recent lightning activity during monsoon
shows an increase of 500 flashes per year due to climate change
[122,123]. Frequency of thunderstorms increased in Pakistan during
the last decade as shown in Fig. 14.
Change in temperature, rainfall and pollution concentrations affect
food crops. Statistical studies have found that 1 °C rise in temperature
results in $41.80/acre loss to farmers. However, an increase in rainfall
supports paddy but adversely affects wheat and cotton crops [125].
Temperature peaks to 53 °C in summer in the south and drops down to
−15 °C in winter in North. Fast melting of glaciers can cause fresh
water shortages and a food crisis. A study of several cities in various
parts of Pakistan shows the mean annual temperature is steadily rising
all over Pakistan [126]. SAARC countries, scientists and leaders should
agree to start learning the adapting skills required to deal with the
steadily changing environment in this region [127].
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4.3. Climate change effect on cold and heat waves
Floods cause public life and property losses. One of the most serious
impacts of flood is the silt filling of dams which reduces effective life.
Shut down of dams can cause water, food and energy crisis. Saline
waters, due to rise of sea level, can damage food and fruit crops in
Sindh and Baluchistan. Extreme weather events like flash floods in
2010 and heat waves in 2015 inflicted life and property losses in
Pakistan. A heat wave is measured relative to the usual weather in the
area and relative to normal temperatures for the season. A typical
climate for one country may be perceived as a heat wave for another
cold region. A heat wave is considered extreme weather that may
overheat the living organism, animals and humans. Heat waves develop
during high pressure aloft (3000–7600 m) and increase in magnitude
slowly lasting for weeks in some cases [128]. Summertime weather
patterns propagate slowly. As a result, this middle to high pressure also
propagates slowly. At further higher pressure, the air sinks near the
ground and increases the temperature substantially. This cap helps to
trap heat instead of allowing it to lift. Owing to lack of lift there is little
or no convection and therefore little or no convective clouds with
minimal chances for rain. The result is a continual build-up of heat
near surface lasting for an extended period of time called heat wave
[129]. The heat wave is often accompanied by high humidity which
makes it more deadly and dangerous as illustrated in Fig. 15.
The heat index is a measures hotness of an area combined with the
relative humidity. During periods of high temperature and humidity
the hyperthermia (heat stroke) becomes normal. Frequently older
adults and children fall victim to heat strokes. Heat edemas, rashes,
cramps and syncopes become common during the heat wave period.
Human mortalities due to heat spell are more than the combined
fatalities due to lightning, rain, floods, hurricanes and tornadoes in the
N. Abas et al.
Fig. 15. Heat index in terms of temperature and humidity [129].
USA. A severe heat wave of 2003 killed 70,000 people [130]. A recent
heat wave in Pakistan and India during last week and the first week of
July 2015 killed 2200 in India and 2500 people in Pakistan [131]. Heat
waves usually start from India and end up in Pakistan. Akin to heat
waves, the heat bursts, associated with decaying thunderstorms, occur
at night. The climate change phenomenon has increased the frequency
of weather-related calamities. Cold waves in hot humid regions and
heat waves in cold countries cause widespread causalities. A recent cold
wave left the daily life frozen in eastern parts of China and United
States of America. Snowfall varied from 2 to 3 ft in 20 states of USA.
Snowstorm affected 85 million Americans and left 250,000 without
electricity.
Chilly winds, fog and snow, led to the cancellation of 12,000 flights
shutting down road, railway and air services. The cold wave moved
from the USA to the UK in the last week of January 2016 as heat wave
moved from India to Pakistan in 2015. Heat strokes and frostbites are
two faces of the same coin. Heat and cold waves demand more energy
for cooling and heating. A man suffers hypothermia bellow 58 °F and
hyperthermia beyond 53 °C. Heat and cold waves affect animals and
plants [132]. Climate change affects not only people and plants, but
also research facilities [133]. High energy prices limit access to
electricity which creates extremism among poor people. Optimum
energy management becomes more critical in climate change affected
countries [134]. Electricity and gas load shedding in hot summer and
winter persuades people to attack power and energy infrastructures as
a psychological outcome of the severe weather stress associated with
other instabilities in the region. Pakistan has all the four kind of
weathers which touch their extremes in their own turns. South is
exposed to heat, central parts to humidity due to flash floods and north
to snowfall and landslides as shown in Fig. 16.
Pakistan has been affected by the climate change yet Bangladesh,
Nepal and Maldives are likely to be affected more than any other
SAARC county [135]. Maldives has broken the silence by declaring
target to become carbon neutral by 2020. Climate affected countries
had played no role in injecting dense clouds of green gases in the
atmosphere. The affected countries are relating climate change to
global geopolitics [136]. Climate change is not only affecting SAARC
countries, but African and American continents too. United States of
America are likely to face mega droughts in the future. The emergence
of Zika Virus in Americas is a climate change related phenomenon. Zika
virus (mosquitos) bites during daylight, Malaria (mosquitos) at night
and Dengue (mosquitoes) at dawn or dusk.
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Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 80 (2017) 990–1016
4.4. Climate change effect on energy and food crops
Climate change affects agriculture and energy sectors through a
change in temperatures and precipitations and evolution of cold and
heat waves. Plants and trees are affected by climate like animals and
humans. Crops germinate, flower and fruit within a narrow band of
temperatures. Most of the research papers from Pakistan are investi-
gating the impact of climate change, energy economics and adaptation
methods. Pakistan's agricultural sector contributes 21% of GDP. The
agricultural sector employs 45% of the labor force and its share in
exports is 18%. Rabi and Kharif are the two major crop seasons in
Pakistan. Rabi crops are grown during November to April and Kharif
crops from May to October. Climate change generally affects agricul-
ture through changes in mean temperature and precipitation levels.
Pakistan's cash crops are wheat, rice, cotton and sugarcane. Optimum
temperatures and precipitations for these crops and impact of higher
temperatures (T, °C) and precipitations (P, mm) on productivity are
shown in Table 12.
Climate change can affect the food crops by variations in tempera-
ture and water resources. Variability analysis studies of data from 1961
to 2012 shows the wheat yield variation from 5000 to 25,000 hg/
harvested area (Hg/Ha), rice from 20,000 to 45,000 Hg/Ha, maize
from 20,000 to 50,000 Hg/Ha, fruit crops from 50,000 to 60,000 Hg/
Ha and vegetables from 82,000 to 145,000 Hg/Ha. Higher CO2
concentrations exhibit good fertility effect, but the temperature rise
adversely affects productivity [138].
Concepts of smart grids, smart buildings, smart cities and countries
are core strategies to reduce GHG emissions from our daily life.
Builders may be asked to follow WHO standard of 16 m2/person space
criterion. Town planners may carry out carbon emission pinch analysis
(CEPA) to decide space and tonnage of carbon dioxide emissions of the
proposed towns to builders to construct according to the standard
design. Architects and builders may carry out carbon absorption pinch
analysis (CAPA) before embarking on construction. Bushes (1–2 m),
small (2–10 m) and large ( > 10 m) trees can sequester 1,000, 2500 and
7000 t of CO2 over time. Generally, cities produce greenhouse gases at
a rate of 95,541 tCO2 per million persons from all sources. Green space
is required at a rate of 16 m2 per person to capture GHG emissions.
Population, areas and green space requirements of Pakistan are shown
in Table 13.
Government agencies can capture and store CO2 at bulk points
without waiting for the plants for ten years to grow to capture later.
N. Abas et al. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 80 (2017) 990–1016

Fig. 16. Climate change inflicted famines, floods and glacier melting in Pakistan.

Table 12 cities like Mumbai, Shanghai and Karachi have populations of 33, 27
Impact of climate change on crops in Pakistan [137]. and 24 million. Global electricity consumption is 215 PW h out of
which buildings use 46% of electricity with the huge potential of
Crops Districts Impact Optimum Higher (T/P)
(T/P)
reducing GHG emissions. Plants absorb carbon dioxide at rate of 200
Gt per year, which eventually goes back to the atmosphere [140]. The
Wheat December– Jhelum 325.69 ZE concept has led to zero energy buildings (ZEB), zero emission
April Mianwali −108.92 14.76 °C Positive vehicles (ZEV), zero emission coal (ZEC), and zero emission power
Bahawalpur 306.21 111/ Negative
84.5 mm
(ZEP) plants. The ZEV [140,141], ZEB [142,143], ZEC [144], ZEP
Faisalabad 338.69 [145] and AZEP [146] strategies can reduce 30%, 40%, 50%, 80% and
Multan 41.65 95% GHG emissions.

Rice August– Jhelum −60.18

November Mianwali −56.08 20–25 °C Negative
5. Mitigation and adaptation strategies in SAARC countries
Bahawalpur −58.51 40 mm Positive
Faisalabad −45.56
Multan −44.63 Seven fossil fuels (coal, oil, sand tar, tight oil, shale and natural
gases) drive the climate change business at local and global levels.
Cotton May– Jhelum −397.61
There are seven major renewable energy sources (solar, wind, hydro,
September Mianwali −338.28 Negative
Bahawalpur 720.36 32 °C/ Negative
geothermal, ocean, hydrogen and biomass resources) to mitigate
40 mm climate change and adapt to new realities [147]. Energy transition
Faisalabad −286.06 from fossil fuels to renewable may be facilitated by seven alternatives
Multan 301.60 (bioethanol, biodiesel, efficiency, conservation, management, nuclear
fission and fusion) options. We have a one set of finite seven fossil fuels
Sugarcane Sep–Dec to Jhelum −960.94
Dec–Feb Mianwali −820.44 20–38 °C Negative and two sets of infinite alternative options. SAARC countries know the
Bahawalpur −402.95 1250– Negative secret of how to live in harmony with nature. Denying climate change is
2500 mm not an option as it is tantamount to self-deceit. Climate change
Faisalabad 4656.8
manifests itself in the form of heat waves, famines, retreating forests,
Multan −789.13
melting glaciers, deadly viruses, declining crop productivities, extreme
weathers, power and energy crises. Pakistan's annual CO2eq emissions
Table 13 are which are caused by energy (51%), agriculture (39%), industry
Green space calculations for Pakistani cities. (6%), LULUCF (3%) and wastes (1%). The annual GHG emissions of
Pakistan are 0.70% of global emissions yet facing rampant conse-
Cities Area Population (M) Tons of CO2 Space (m2/ Green (%) quences of climate change. NASA observations show the upwind
(km2) p)
emissions and pollutants reach Pakistan through summer monsoons.
Islamabad 906 1.9 181,528 477 3.54 Cooperation, technology sharing and exchange of information, data
Karachi 3527 24 2,292,984 147 10.88a and alternatives is the plausible outcome of this regional problem.
Lahore 1772 11 1,050,951 161 9.94 Regional Super Grid akin to the European super grid concept has been
Peshawar 1257 3 286,623 419 3.82
proposed to create an efficient market for electricity among the nations
Quetta 2653 2 191,082 1327 1.20
Faisalabad 1300 7.48 714,647 174 9.19 fighting the common evils of climatic changes and emissions in the
region.
a
Islamabad, Peshawar and Queta have enough green space, but Lahore and Karachi Climate change threat to SAARC countries is a real danger which
are overpopulated. needs mutual cooperation, patience and adaptation education. El-Nino,
anticyclonic systems and jet steams occur naturally affecting global
Solar and wind systems may be incorporated in the building design for wind patterns. Akin to Indus Valley Civilization other earlier civiliza-
sustainable energy systems [139]. Zero energy buildings (ZEB), zero tions collapsed by sudden climate change. We know the reasons but
emission coal (ZEC) and zero emission power (ZEP) are the future of all have no large scale survival solution which is a challenge to science and
countries. People are fast migrating to cities worldwide. In the 19th technology. World brain, big data and global models seem to be the
century, the urban population was just 3%, which grew to 47% by the ultimate solution if collective wisdom is used. Climate change adapta-
end of the 20th century. There were only 83 cities with population tion is the way forward, and SAARC countries have the potential to face
more than 1 million in 1950 which grew to 468 by 2007. Today 3.2 the worst scenario with the help of the global community. Panic
billion (43%) people live in cities and 4 billion (57%) in villages. Big approach to supply an artificial environment to children is mandate

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N. Abas et al.
to nowhere. They should know what are glow worms, how is moonlight,
what is dark, how stars looks at night and what are preventive
measures against heat and cold waves. The year 2015 (+1.11 °C) was
the hottest year and 2016 seems to be the coolest (−0.57 °C) due to cold
waves in three continents. Pakistan used to have fog every year in plain
areas, but this year it has evolved in hilly areas too. Weather patterns
and crop seasons are changing and the genetic clock of organisms is
also following according affecting the circadian rhythm of the nature
along with that was developed over millions of years. Yesterday seagulls
did not differentiate between oil and water, but today can. We must
launch an adaptation campaign in media to awaken the sleeping hearts.
We have options to reduce GHG emissions, adaptation to learn how to
live with the devil or be ready for worst consequence later on. Collapse
of Indus Valley civilization due to a hiatus in monsoons in 4500 BCE,
the death of 14000 people in the EU in 2003 by heat waves, coast to
coast big chill of 2014 and current cold wave from China to USA are a
few examples to say. Cold wave is often accompanied by strong winds
which increases the severity [148].
5.1. SAARC super grid proposition
SAARC countries have the opportunity to set up regional electricity
market by mutual cooperation. Europe has conceived the idea of solar
and wind powers based super grid which is a good guideline for SAARC
countries. SAARC countries can extend their grid to hydropower rich
central Asian states. The concept of the common super grid connecting
Central Asian States to SAARC countries is shown in Fig. 17.
The SAARC common grid has been on the agenda for many years,
yet no concrete steps have been taken to implement this free market
based idea. A simulation study was carried out in MATLAB to
investigate the load flow study of European Smart Supergrid and found
it appropriate project for regional power and energy solutions. Matlab/
Simulink diagram of SAARC supergrid is shown in Fig. 18.
The concept of a super grid among SAARC countries can help
reduce coal consumptions for power generation. Pakistan has already
started CASA 1000 HVDC project from Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and
Afghanistan to Pakistan. A TAPI gas pipeline project from
Turkmenistan to Afghanistan, Pakistan and India is already underway.
The SAARC long transmission system consists of HVDC and local
Fig. 17. CAS and SAARC countries’ common grid [149].
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Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 80 (2017) 990–1016
systems may consist of HVAC systems [151]. This system incorporates
spinning reserve, static virtual storage reserve and dynamic storage
reserves. Load flow analysis shows the system continues supplying
power despite the generation drop out as shown in Fig. 19.
Simulation results show the supply continues to terminal consu-
mers during generation drop out due to routine HVDC and HVAC
transmission faults.
Pakistan, India and China (PIC), SAARC and Central Asian States
(CAS) countries have opportunities of energy business with one
another. The CAS countries have surplus hydroelectricity in summer,
which SAARC and PIC countries can utilize. Pakistan has already
signed a 500 kV HVDC project, CASA-1000, to import power. Power
and energy potentials of PIC countries are shown in Table 14.
SAARC countries individually face power shortages which can be
minimized by mutual cooperation through the common energy market.
Electricity consumptions of Maldives, India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka,
Bhutan, Bangladesh and Nepal are 1372, 749, 387, 370, 260, 168
and 95 kW h/person, respectively. Myanmar and Nepal have high
hydropower potential to increase their generation capacities. Hydro,
solar and wind power potentials of SAARC countries are shown in
Table 15.
Hydroelectricity potential in SAARC countries is 294.33 GW.
Maldives and Sri Lanka have no hydroelectricity and Bangladesh has
negligible hydroelectricity. SAARC countries which without any fossil
fuels and hydroelectricity potential are rich in solar and wind poten-
tials. Fossil fuel reserves of SAARC countries are shown in Table 16.
Two SAARC countries have no coal, three of them have no oil and
four have no gas at all. Pakistan and India have more power generation
capacities and potentials compared to other members. The Indian
energy mix consists of 68% coal, 14% hydroelectricity 10% natural gas,
4% oil, 2% nuclear and 2% renewable. Pakistan's energy mix consists of
37% oil, 28% natural gas, 31% hydroelectricity, 0.04% coal, 4% nuclear
and 0.03% renewable. India uses 82% fossil fuels and Pakistan uses
65% fossil fuels.
Combined natural gas consumption of Pakistan, India and Bangladesh
is 11.4 BCF/day, whereas alone Chinese gas consumption is 17.95 BCF/
day. The annual consumptions of natural gas peaked in Pakistan and India
in 2012 at 4.22 BCF/day and 6.15 BCF/day in 2011 yet it is increasing in
Bangladesh and China at rolling rates as shown in Fig. 20.
N. Abas et al. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 80 (2017) 990–1016

Fig. 18. MATLAB/Simulink block diagram of SAARC Super Grid [150]. ,.

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Fig. 18. (continued)

Fig. 19. MATLAB simulation results for generation dropout on a terminal SAARC country.

Chinese GHG emissions are likely to peak by 2030. Due to the
awareness campaign on climate change due to GHG emissions power
generation trend has shifted from fossil fuels to renewable energy
sources. At the start of 2015, global hydropower, solar photovoltaic,
solar thermal and wind power generation capacity has been reported by
BP to be 1055 GW, 177 GW, 44.5 GW and 370 GW. Germany, China
and Japan lead the world in renewable energy generation race.
5.2. Carbon dioxide utilization
Accumulation of 1000 Gt of CO2 in the atmosphere is great global
challenge [154]. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies are
neither yet developed nor connected to industry. CCS technologies use
post-combustion, pre-combustion and oxyfueling methods. The post-
combustion methods involve chemical absorption (amine, aqua am-

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N. Abas et al. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 80 (2017) 990–1016

Table 14
Energy potentials of PIC countries [152,153].

PIC Resources Pakistan India China

Potential Harvested Potential Harvested Potential Harvested

Solar 2.9 TW 2,1 GW 5×106 TW h 45.81 GW 4.5–39 TW 36 GW

Wind 346 GW 0.25 GW 60 GW 22 GW 2380 GW 115 GW
Hydro 60 GW 6.5 GW 150 GW 50 GW 500 GW 271 GW
Nuclear – 0.70 GW – 5.78 GW – 35 GW
Biomass 4 GW 478 MW h 10 GW 3.6 GW 15 GW 5 GW
Coal 186 Gt 6.9 Mt 267 Gt 721 Mt 114 Gt 3821 Mt
Gas 26.62 TCF 1485 BCF 40.75 TCF 1788 BCF 1070 TCF 4763 BCF
Oil 0.28 bb 500 kb/d 5.61 Bb 3411 kb/d 20.35 Bb 9852 kb/d
Electricity 23 GW 89.60 TW h 208 GW 904 TW h 988 GW 3509 TW h

Table 15
Energy potentials of SAARC countries.

SAARC Countries Solar Wind Hydro Total Capacity

Potential Harvested Potential Harvested Potential Harvested

Pakistan 1600 GW 2100 MW 50 GW 0.25 GW 60 GW 6.5 GW 23 GW

India 5×106 TW h 45.81 GW 60 GW 22 GW 150 GW 50 GW 259 GW
Bhutan 58 GW 2.1 GW 30 GW 1.5 GW
Maldives 0 77 MW
Nepal 446 TW h 7 GW h 83 GW 0.8 GW
Sri Lanka 24 GW 0 3.37 GW
Bangladesh 122 GW 0.33 GW 10.8 GW
Totals 294.33 GW

Table 16 tactor systems). Pre-combustion methods include selexol, rectisol, fluor

Fossil fuel reserves in SAARC countries. and purisol materials. Oxy-fueling methods include air separation,
combustion and CO2 recycling, cleaning and capturing techniques
SAARC Coal Oil Gas
[155]. The CO2 may be separated direct from the air, but the situation
Pakistan 186 Gt 280 Mb 26.72 TCF of its industrial use is yet not developed. The CO2 may be sequestered
India 267 Gt 5.61 Bb 40.75 TCF into processes or used, yet ultimate solution is materialization [156].
Bhutan 2 Mt 0 0
Hydrogenation of CO2 may be used for synthesis of fuel and value-
Maldives 0 0 0
Nepal 0 0 0 added hydrocarbons. Basic hydrocarbon synthesis reaction include,
Sri Lanka 150 Mt 150 Mb 0
Bangladesh 884 Mt 12 Mb 8.5 TCF
CO2 + H2 ↔ CO + H2O ΔH = 38 kJ/mol (1)
Totals 458.036 Gt 6.052 Bb 75.97 TCF
CO + 2H2 → CH2 + H2O ΔH = −166 kJ/mol (2)

CO2 + 3H2 → CH2 + 2H2O ΔH = −128 kJ/mol (3)

The hydrogenation reaction mechanism is based on Fischer-

Tropsch method using catalysts. The catalyst may help convert H2/
CO2 to hydrocarbons by active site, promote, support and binding
effects roles. Effect of operating conditions on H2/CO2 to hydrocarbons
such as space velocity, pressure and temperature even reactor type
increases conversion efficiency [157]. The CO2 conversion to CO may
be carried out by reduction of CO2, by electrocatalysis, plasma or
reforming process. The CO2 may be converted to HCOOH, HCHO,
CH3OH, long chain HC, oxygenates, polymers and other value-added
products. Use of photocatalysts can involve solar energy. Artificial
photosynthesis provides a direct conversion of CO2 into many value
added products.

6CO2(g) + 6H2O(l) + sunlight → C6H12O6(s) + 6O2(g) Natural pho-

tosynthesis (4)

CO2 + H2O + Solar energy → HCs, CHxOy, CO,…· + O2 Artificial photo-

Fig. 20. Natural gas consumptions of three SAARC countries. synthesis (5)

monia, dual alkali and sodium carbonate slurry), adsorption (zeolites, Photochemical reduction of CO2 in water under sunlight light is
activated carbon, amine adsorbents and metal organic) and membrane illustrated in Fig. 21.
separation (polymeric, inorganic, mixed matrix and membrane con- Conversion of CO2 into long chain hydrocarbons and oxygenates is
governed by [159]

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N. Abas et al.
Fig. 21. Photochemical reduction of CO2 in H2O under sunlight [158].
xH2(g) + yCO(g) → aCnH2n-2(l/g) + bCnH2n(l/g) + cCnH2n-1OH(l)
+ dCn-1H2n-1CHO(l) + eCn-1H2n-1COOH(l) + zH2O(l)
Where n is a natural number and a, b, c, d and e are constants related
to x, y and z by
x = n(a + b + c + d + e) + a + c
y = n(a + b + c + d + e)
z = n(a + b + c + d + e)a − d − 2e
Methanol yield has been found higher for Ni/Cu (111) than Pt/Cu
(111) or Rh/Cu (111) catalysts. Molar ratios of H2/CO in CO2,
CO2+H2O and CO2+O2 reforming of methane are 4.889, 4.889, 7.83
at 800 K and 0.999, 1.152, 1.666 at 1000 °C [160]. The carbon cycle is
unable to handle man made emissions ranging from 38 to 40 GtCO2/y.
It is time to create applications of CO2 in daily business to reduce its
concentration in the atmosphere. New frontiers in CO2 utilization
include conversion, use of perennial energy sources (solar+wind) for
CO2 and H2O conversion into fuels, carbon recycling through the
artificial photosynthesis and CO2 photochemical reduction. Currently,
CO2 is being used for the production of urea, methanol, Dimethyl ether
(DME), alcohols, hydrocarbons, methane, carbonates, acrylates, soda
solvay, formic acid, calcium carbonates and polyacrylates. An emerging
application is algae production for biodiesel. Sustainability criterion
requires CO2 to be input raw material for other industries. Public
perception is in favor of using CO2 for enhanced oil recovery, fuel
production and utilization of waste gas for industrial processes [161].
Carbon dioxide can be converted into liquid and gas phase fuels,
value-added products and chemicals [162]. Physical properties of CO2,
high heat transfer capability makes it attractive for air conditioning,
heating and ventilation applications. Thermo-physical properties of
some regular natural and synthetic refrigerants, as shown in Fig. 22,
were calculated for the standard, Vapor Compression Cycle (VCC),
being applied to 90% of existing heat pump applications.
These properties are calculated using NIST Reference Fluid
Thermodynamic and Transport Properties Database (REFPROP) V.
9.0 [163]. For higher Coefficient of Performance (COP), high vapor
density, liquid thermal conductivity, latent heat and lower liquid
viscosity and molecular weight are the optimum parameters for VCC
[164,165]. It is evident from results that CO2 is superior in terms of
vapor density and liquid viscosity, molecular weight and has good
aggregated values of thermal conductivity and latent heat [1]. Butane
(R-600) is flammable and has a limited application area and tempera-
ture range. R-134a (HFC) has a high GWP running under time barred
permission and will be phased out. R-152a and newly developed R-
1234yf have acceptable GWP value, but lower thermodynamic and heat
Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 80 (2017) 990–1016
transfer properties. Comsats Institute of Information Technology,
Islamabad conducted a solar water heating project using CO2 as
refrigerant in collaboration with NDSU USA. The design details and
results are explained in our earlier work [166–169]. This project led by
Dr Nasrullah (CIIT) and Dr Sumathy (NDSU) [170]. The solar water
heater using CO2 as heat transfer fluid is shown in Fig. 23.
To reverse global warming by CO2 utilization, National Science
Foundation Workshop Report concluded the identification and assess-
ment of CO2 point sources employing CCS technology. Better mem-
branes need to be developed for CO2 separation along with a better
understanding of the chemistry of the gas. Electro, Photo and thermo-
chemical processes need to be improved by finding novel techniques
and catalysts in converting CO2 into value added fuels and other
substances. The applicability of the system at industrial scale must be
verified. In the long-term, efficient absorbents need to be developed
that can be used to extract CO2 from the air efficiently thereby
reversing the global warming [171].
5.3. Carbon capture and storage in India
(6)
Natural processes take the time to dissipate GHG in the atmo-
sphere. Decay time varies from 50 to 500 years for CO2 and 8000 to
12,000 years for CFCs. A combination of renewable energies, CO2
utilization and carbon capture & storage (CCS) may reduce GHG
(7) emissions in accordance with Paris Accord. Generation of renewable
energy offsets need to use fossil fuels, which drive GHG emissions
(8) worldwide. Carbon dioxide may be captured before, during and after
combustion in power plants. Indian CCS initiative is an example for
rest of the SAARC countries. Indian Tuticorin Alkali Chemicals &
(9)
Fertilizers Company in south has successfully demonstrated conversion
of CO2 into baking soda without any government subsidy. This private
industry annually captures 60,000 t of CO2 [171]. It uses a chemical
reaction to convert CO2 into value added product instead of spending
money on storage in deep subsurface formations due to limited 1.5–2
GtCO2 storage capacity [172]. Global depleted oil and gas reservoirs
can accommodate 675–900 GtCO2 [173]. Deep saline formation has
estimated storage capacity of about 1000 GtCO2 [174]. Indian per
capita emission is 1.4 tCO2 which is low compared to global average of
4.5 tCO2 per capita. Indian coal power plants produce 130 GW power
emitting 650 MtCO2 annually and construction of new 450 plants for
520 GW power would make the GHG emissions problem a dilemma
[175].
Indian coal power plants are equipped with particulates and SOx
control facilities but not NOx control technologies. Coal power plants
normally emit CO2 at a rate of 800–1050 gCO2/kW h with the
production cost of $61.5–$62.76/MW h. Addition of CCS technology
in coal power plants in India is INR2.45 to INR 2.57/kW h [174].
Integration of CCS reduces plant efficiency due to additional auxiliary
power demand to run the equipment. Old Indian plants use subcritical
types, current constructions supercritical and future plants would be
ultra-supercritical and IGCC types [176]. Indian initiative to add CCS
in coal power plants is a good example for SAARC countries. Success of
Toticorin CCS project has triggered research projects in India, Norway
and Australia. CCS research is attracting new investments to capture
and store or utilize CO2 in coal fired power plants. Indian Universities,
research institutes and industries started 29 CCS project from 2007 to
2012 followed by many more [177]. SAARC countries should follow
Indian CCS technology to reduce local emissions.
Asian Development Bank is funding Pakistan to determine the CCS
potential due to the construction of many new coal power plants.
Pakistan's current GHG emissions are estimated to be 361.69 MtCO2eq
in 2016 which have been increasing at the rate of 361.69MtCO2eq per
year rates in last decade but are likely to increase exponentially in next
decade [178]. Asian Development Bank is targeting carbon capture and
storage opportunities, drivers and barriers in Southeast and SAARC
countries [179]. Half of world population lives in Asia around
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N. Abas et al.
Fig. 22. Thermo-physical properties of some natural and synthetic refrigerants.
Fig. 23. A CO2 refrigerant based solar water heater.
Himalayan slopes and valleys. Economic conditions and population
densities are diverse in Central Asia ($295B GDP and 16.1 persons/
km2), South Asia ($2.9 T GDP and 343 persons/km2), Southeast Asia
($2.15 T GDP and 138 persons/km2), East Asia ($11.33 T GDP and
145 persons/km2) and West Asia ($2.74 T GDP and 50.1 persons/
km2). Indian economy leads SAARC states in South Asia. Economies
and population densities are indifferent in Afghanistan ($19.66B and
43.5 persons/km2), Bangladesh ($205.33B and 1319 persons/km2),
Bhutan ($2.21B and 18 persons/km2), India ($2183B and 387.7
persons/km2), Maldives ($3.22B and 1102.5 persons/km2), Nepal
($74B and 180 persons/km2), Pakistan ($270.96B and 260.8 per-
sons/km2) and Sri Lanka ($80.59B and 323 persons/km2). SAARC
countries are present day remains of Indus Civilization that collapsed
in 1300BCE due to climate change. This region initially was limited to
Afghanistan, Pakistan and Northern India in 3300–1300 BCE and even
narrower in Neolithic times, after which hiatus in monsoons drove
people to current SAARC states in search of water and food. Rising
temperature in Afghanistan (0.13 °C/decade), Pakistan (0.06 °C/dec-
ade), India (0.056 °C/decade) and Sri Lanka (0.011 °C/decade) are
visible signs are global warming in SAARC countries. All SAARC states
face air pollution and deforestation problems except Maldives which
faces sea level rise issue. India, Bhutan and Bangladesh face serious
threat of glaciers meltdown. Afghanistan, Pakistan and Sri Lanka are
suffering from desertification and loss of biodiversity problems.
Rampant rise in loss of biodiversity may be attributed to long hauled
wars [180].
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Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 80 (2017) 990–1016
Zero emissions (ZE) approach is perceived to be a sustainable
strategy. The ZE is a shift from the traditional industrial model,
assuming industrial wastes as routine, to integrated systems in which
waste has its utilization in other industries. The ZE concept envisages
all industrial inputs being used in final products or converted into
value-added inputs for other industries or processes. It points to a
major industrial transformation wherein business emulates the sus-
tainable cycle found in nature [180]. Our faith systems, political and
digital divides should not interfere with the collective struggle against
the climate change. We have to correct our ABC by improving our
Attitudes, Behaviors and Civilities. This task needs hundreds of
billions of dollars and concerted efforts ranging from behavioral
changes to laws to ensure human survival [181,182].
5.4. Grand energy transition in SAARC countries
Energy phase and form transition have been taking place with
human development and civilization. Wood and animal powers were
the sole energy resources throughout history which transformed to
coal, oil, gas, nuclear and bioenergy in last three centuries. Global oil
consumption is 82 Mb (96 Mb liquids) today which has been on peak
plateau since last one decade. Fossil fuels supply 80% of global energy
demand and rest 20% comes from renewable and alternative energy
sources. Seven fossil fuels include coal, peat, oil, sand tar, tight oil,
natural and shale gases. Seven renewable and sustainable energy
resources are solar, wind, hydroelectricity, biomass, hydrogen, geother-
N. Abas et al. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 80 (2017) 990–1016

mal and oceans. Seven alternative power and energy sources may
include ethanol, biodiesel, fuel cells, MHD plants, TEG plants, nuclear
fission and fusion energies. Seven other options include efficiency,
conservation, management, austerity, frugality, waste to watts conver-
sion and smart grid. After Kyoto Protocol many countries started
relaxing reliance on fossil fuels but after Paris Accord all countries fixed
targets to switch from fossil fuels to renewable and alternative energy
sources from 2030 to 2050 or beyond [183]. Energy transition move-
ment was affected by geopolitical changes in 2017. Rivers, oceans,
biomass, geothermal and hydrogen energies are not available to all
countries but solar and wind energies are available in almost all
countries worldwide [5].
Projected baseline installed capacities of Afghanistan, Bangaldesh,
Bhutan, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka would be 1.1, 27.2, 6.0,
387.2, 3.4, 57.5 and 5.9 GW in 2020 and 7.0, 67.8, 14.8, 783.9, 9.3,
173, and 11.7 GW in 2040. Total installed power capacity of SAARC
countries is expected to increase to 489 GW by 2020, 782 GW by 2030
and 1067 GW by 2040. The proportion of coal is likely to increase in
the energy mix of Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and India with an
accumulative investment of $4.12 trillions on generation and inter-
connection of 58 GW power. Alternative sources predict SAARC States
GDP will grow to $5500 billion and energy consumption to 36
Quadrillion Btu by 2030. Keeping in view current integration rate of
renewable energy in fuel mix of SAARC States, the percentage shares of
different fuels are shown in Table 17 [184].
According to REN21 global energy production from biomass is
464 TW h, geothermal is 150 TW h (half heat half power), hydropower
is 1064 GW, solar is 227 GW, solar thermal 4.8 GW, solar heating/
cooling is 435 GW and wind power is 433 GW. Levelized production
costs of biomass is 0.07–0.1 $/kW h, geothermal is 0.05–0.15 $/kW h,
hydropower is 0.01–0.11 $/kW h, photovoltaic is 0.1–0.21 $/kW h,
solar thermal is 0.21–0.40 $/kW h, wind onshore is 0.06–0.12 $/kW h
and offshore wind is 0.12–0.16 $/kW h [185]. Photovoltaic is expen-
sive in Europe but relatively cheaper in China and India.
Renewable energy meets energy demand and provides jobs. The
renewable energy spectrum provides 8.1 million jobs out of which
maximum jobs are in bioenergy, solar energy and wind power sectors.
According to British Petroleum statistics [186], Japan, Germany, US,
Spain, Italy and China lead the world in solar as shown in Fig. 24, and
US, Germany, Spain, China and India wind power generation as shown
in Fig. 25.
Solar and wind energies are available in all the SAARC countries.
India and Pakistan are playing leading role in energy transition
compared to least developed Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Maldives,
Nepal and Sri Lanka. Energy transition in Afghanistan was accelerated
by presence of foreign troops who brought solar cells and solar thermal
technologies from developed countries.
6. Conclusions
Climate change is a statistical shift in average weather conditions
and will result in paradigm shift in human behavior. Climate change
manifests in deviations of the temperature, precipitation, humidity,
sunshine, wind and dust affecting humans, animals and plants on land
and in the sea. Global forests in the presence of high CO2 concentration
and temperature are under serious survival threat. It is time to stop
further emission of GHG by limiting the use of fossil fuels to reduce the
continued injection of CO2 into the atmosphere. Human activities have
already affected the natural patterns by excessive fossil fuel consump-
tions. We may explore new avenues to run the engine using greenhouse
gas fuels as it does not add to the global carbon cycle. Global warming
has started showing its existence by drying rosewood and oak trees in
some of SAARC countries. Presence of energy, food and water crises in
Southeast Asia can affect the world food chain supply. Higher CO2
concentrations increase temperature to activate beetles and wood ants
eat up tree roots and stem. SAARC countries face severe heat in
summer and ice cold chill in winter. Although, Kyoto Protocol, does not
demand SAARC countries except India to reduce their emissions yet
they can earn carbon credits by reducing local warming and pollution.
The idea of common super grid can help reduce GHG emissions by
increasing hydroelectricity. India (SAARC) and China (PIC) use lots of
coal fired power plants which affect downwind PIC/SAARC countries.
While reducing emissions, we can use CCS technologies to capture CO2
from bulk points and convert it into value-added products. Rampant
rise of CO2, weather extremities and overpopulated cities lead to acidic
rains, agriculture losses and sinkholes. Drying of water aquifers and
emptying coal, oil and gas fields also lead to sinkholes yet major cause
is dissolution of lime stones emitting CO2 into environment. The use of
CO2 instead of CFCs in the industry is a promising route for transition
from synthetic to natural refrigerants. Carbon dioxide in the super-
critical phase solves both cooling and heating problems due to its high
heat transfer rates. SAARC countries can use their human resources to
initiate research in CCS and CO2 conversion and utilization technolo-
gies. Development of photoelectrocatalysts for direct reduction of CO2
in water to alternative fuels and value-added products can reduce
reliance on fossil fuels. SAARC countries are monitoring across border
pollutant flows under Male Convention, which needs to be extended to
GHG for cooperative control of emissions in PIC and SAARC countries.
Visible signs of climate change include melting glaciers, flash floods,
repetitive droughts, heat waves, epidemics, water, food and energy
securities.
7. Future trends
According to global carbon budget, the annual carbon emissions
due to fossil fuels, cement production and land use change were 9.666
GtC (35.442 GtCO2) in 2008 which increased to 10.695 GtC (39.215
GtCO2) in 2014. The carbon emissions have continuously been
increasing, despite the global awareness campaign, at a rate of 167.5
MtC/y (614.17 GtCO2/y) [187]. Human activities accounted for 91% of
total emissions (39.215 GtCO2) in 2014. These emissions have been
attributed to coal (42%), oil (33%), natural gas (19%), cement produc-
tion (6%) and gas flaring (1%). Atmosphere, oceans and land are
natural carbon sinks which, in the last decade 2005–2015), absorbed
44%, 26% and 30% of all CO2 emissions. Accumulative carbon
emissions, from 1870 to 2014, were 545 GtC (1998.33 GtCO2).

Table 17
Projected baseline installed capacity mix (%) of SAARC countries in 2040.

Country Diesel Gas Hydro Solar Coal wind Biomass Nuclear CCPP Total, GW

Afghanistan 3.0 8.5 88.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.0
Bangledesh 5.9 3.7 0.6 6.9 66.8 0.1 0.0 0.9 15.0 67.8
Bhutan 0.1 0.0 99.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.8
India 0.1 6.9 12.7 2.6 57.7 9.3 2.9 3.7 4.2 783.9
Nepal 0.6 0.0 99.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.3
Pakistan 0.3 1.6 22.1 0.0 45.4 20.0 0.3 4.3 6.0 173.0
Srilanka 0.8 5.7 17.6 1.1 37.1 24.5 0.8 0.0 12.3 11.7
Total 0.6 5.7 15.9 2.3 54.3 10.3 2.2 3.4 5.1 1067.4

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Fig. 24. Global solar power generation [186].

Fig. 25. Global wind power generation [186].

Fig. 26. CO2e, CO2 concentrations and Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (AGGI).
Fig. 27. Radiative forcing, relative to 1750, due to carbon dioxide alone since 1979. The
percent change from January 1, 1990 is shown on the right axis.

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N. Abas et al.
Approximately 42% (230 GtC) of global emissions are located in
atmosphere, 28% (155 GtC) in oceans and 29% (160 GtC) on land.
The current concentration of CO2 in atmosphere on 4 March, 2017 was
407.46 ppm which was 403.79 ppm on the same day in 2016. The
concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere increases in winter and
declines in summer, but overall it is rising every year. The concentra-
tion of CO2 was 401.85 ppm in December 2015 which was 398.85 in
December 2014 [188]. To keep temperature rise limited to 2 °C the
carbon emissions are desired to be less than 465 GtC (1705 GtCO2)
which is the point SAARC countries can contribute by reducing their
emissions. Earlier confirmed proposals (1-3-2011) assumes 4 °C
temperature rise at 800 ppm CO2 (1060 ppm CO2e) at annual emis-
sions of 103.40 GtCO2e, INDCs strict (14-12-2015) assume 3.5 °C at
670 ppm CO2 (855 ppm CO2e) at annual emissions of 81.33 GtCO2e,
2 °C pathway (27-11-2015) assumes 2 °C at 475 ppm CO2 (485 ppm
CO2e) at annual emissions of 6.01 GtCO2e and 1.5 °C pathway (14-12-
2015) assumes 1.5 °C at 425 ppm CO2 (420 ppm CO2e) at annual
emissions of 0.92 GtCO2e but the actual situation of 2014 is 0.9 °C
temperature rise at 397 ppm CO2 (481 ppm CO2e) at annual emission
of 54.96 GtCO2e which shows far away we are from the target [189].
Even if INDCs are compiled the CO2 concentration is likely to increase
to 470 ppm raising AGGI to 1.39 and the temperature to 3.5 °C above
pre-industrial level. Amazingly, Indian expectation from SAARC coun-
tries of rescuing their open coal fired power plants during COP21 is
viewed as a pointless effort by the members [190].
According to NOAA data concentrations of CO2, N2O, CH4 and
CFC-12 in the atmosphere are 407.46 ppm, 327 ppb, 1840 ppb and 530
ppt yet CO2e is 470 ppm giving annual GHG index (AGGI) of 1.39
which is 0.84 for CO2 gas alone. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis
Center (CDIAC), Earth System Science Data (ESSD), National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and National Aeronautics
and Space Administration (NASA) have been chasing carbon molecules
by monitoring rise and fall of GHG emissions (CO2e) as shown in
Fig. 26.
These levels of CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere has never
been so high in human civilization - since last 200,000 years - though,
there was 1000 ppm CO2 concentrations earlier in Oligocene (23
million years ago) which declined to 280 ppm later before evolution
of homo genus [191]. Our ancestors neither sniffed such polluted airs
nor tasted these contaminated waters of our times. According to air
bubbles trapped in ice cores our species have burnt old time fossilized
sunshine's and trees to increase the concentration of CO2 to above
400 ppm. Rampant rise in GHG emissions is thickening the dense
shield around earth increasing temperature. It appears the human
civilization is entering from Holocene into Anthropocene. We know the
GHG emissions are approaching dangerous zone yet we are continu-
ously spewing GHG into atmosphere. More than one billion cars,
thousands of coal power plants, rampant cement productions and land
use changes due to exploding population are mandate for nowhere.
Saw-toothed GHG emission records indicate coming of future climate
catastrophe yet experts assuming one another good reason produce S
and hokey curves showing decline of CO2 concentrations and global
mean temperatures. Thanks to IPCC awareness campaign and NOAA
measurements which keep track record of GHG gas emissions and
related effects for ready reference. Based on NOAA data, the relative
change in radiative forcing and concentration of CO2 is shown in
Fig. 27.
All eyes are stuck on Chinese GHG emissions and SAARC INDCs.
How seriously the SAARC countries are doing to comply with INDCs is
an open secret. Pakistan is adding 10,000 MW power in national grid
most of which will be produced by coal power plants. Upwind Chinese
and Indian coal power plants have already choked downwind people.
Nature news reported fall of GHG emissions in 2015 but the ground
reality is otherwise [192]. The total GHG emissions have already
exceeded 10GtC in 2014 as well as 2015. Chinese emissions were
assumed to decrease by 3.9% in 2015 yet Indian GHG emissions due to
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Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 80 (2017) 990–1016
coal power plants are continuously up curving. Both China and India
are fast deploying renewable energy resources, but these additions may
decelerate emissions yet hardly reduce GHG emissions.
Acknowledgements
This research was in part, supported by a grant from the Pakistan
US Science and Technology Cooperation Program (Project ID no. 299),
US Department of State (Grant No. 299) (jointly administered by the
National Academics and Higher Education Commission of Pakistan).
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