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RELIABILITY
ENGINEER'S
TOOLKIT
An application oriented
guide for the
practicing reliability engineer
An Application Oriented
Guide for the
Practicing Reliability Engineer
The format of the TOOLKIT has been designed for easy reference. Five main
sections are laid out to follow the normal time sequence of a
The TOOLKIT also includes a "Quick Reference Application Index" which can be
I to quickly refer the R&M engineer to the portion of a section that.
z questions, A quicK reterence r o r More Help Appendices index is\
included tor tne more in-deptn topics of tne appendices.
TOOLKIT 7
8 TOOLKIT
INTRODUCTION
• Source Selection
These building blocks are derived from examining successful programs; they
This TOOLKIT, although not structured to address the R&M 2000 building blocks
per se, addresses the practical application of proven reliability and maintainability
techniques that results in meeting the R&M 2000 objectives.
» Operation Environment
Operational Constraints:
• Mission Crmcaniy
• Availability Constraints
• Self-Sufficiency Constraints
• Attended/Unattended Operation
• Operational Environment
• Use of Off-the-shelf or Newly Designed Equipment
= MTBM
A
° MTBM + MDT
(Solve for MTBM using mean downtime (MDT) which includes the actual repair
time plus logistics delay time.)
Detailed Process
vSimilar
Equipment
Data
Check Requirements
for Realism
System
Constraints
Contractual
Requirements
RADC TOOLKIT
REQUIREMENTS—TOPIC R1
Depot
MTTR .5-1.5 hr . 5 - 3 hr 1 - 4 hr
M-MMH Note 1 Note 1 Note 1
MTTRS 1 - 8 hrs (Note 2) NA NA
PM 2 - 1 5 hr/yr NA NA
1 • M-MMH depends on the number of repair visits to be made, the MTTR for each repair visit and the number of
maintenance personnel required for each visit. Typical calculations of the mean maintenance manhours per year
include:
Scope of Diagnostics:
• Integrated—Use of built-in-test (BIT) which operates on demand or
automatically.
• External—Special purpose test equipment that must be connected by a
maintenance technician.
• Manual—Testing that requires the use of technical manuals, troubleshooting
procedures and general purpose test equipment (e.g., voltmeter) by a
maintenance technician.
-100
100
100 Depot
(BIT)
95-100 Depot
|
Adv Dev Model
(New Design)
ill
i
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a:
• R&M&T Design Reviews R R R R R R • DI-R-7080 & 7104
£1 5
S
• Failure Reporting & Corrective Action E3 E4 E5 E1 E1 E2 E1 E1 E1 • DI-R-7041
LJU
System (FRACAS)
• Failure Review Board O O O • Incl in DI-R-7080
• Subcontractor Control R R R R R R E3 E3 E3 • Incl in DI-R-7080
Design & Analysis Tasks
LLJ
• Part Selection and Control E1 E1 E1 • DIM ISC 80071
LLJ
• Part Derating E2 E2 E2 • See AFSCP 800-27
J
(Derating Pamphlet)
O
• Failure Modes, Effects & Criticality 0 R E4 • DI-R-7085
Analysis (FMECA)
S
m
S
• R&M&T Prediction & Allocation E5 E7 E6 E5 E5 E5 • DI-R-7094, 7095 & 7108
O
• Sneak Circuit Analysis 0 R 0 • DI-R-7083
o
• Critical Items O
c
0 0 E8 • DI-R-35011
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> TOOLKIT
RADC TOOLKIT
DESIGN—TOPIC D6
TOOLKIT
REQUIREMENTS—TOPIC R1
3 Full MIL-HDBK-217
Prediction
(2) Report f
RF
1 Internal Report
2 Formal Report Required
(3)
POC
4 0-25
3 26-50
2 51-75
1 76-100
equipment level I
NOI = Number of circuit cards for
piece part and circuit level FMEA's
TOOLKIT
The criteria far ©valuation of contractor proposals has to match the
requirements specified in the Request for Proposal (RFPJ, Contractors must
be scored by comparing their proposals to the criteria, not to each other.
R&M are generally evaluated as parts of the technical area. The total source
selection process lodudes other nontechnic&f areas. Recent AF policy lias
emphasized the importance of R&M in the source selection process.
1. Does the
ho contractor show understanding of the
T in the effort?
2. Does the contractor show a firm understanding of R&M&l
methodology, and.
3. Does the contractor indicate understanding of the role of
iT
! in light of the scope of the overall program?
nee of R&M&T personnel assigned to the
, and the number of
the scope of the overall program?
3. Does the R&M&T group have adequate stature and authority in th.
organizational framework of the program (e.g., they should not fall
control of the design group)?
TOOLKIT
Section D
Evaluate Design
D4 Review Quests ons 53
D5 Reliability Critical Items 59
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RADC RELIABILITY
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RADC RELIABILITY TOOLKIT
DESIGN—TOPIC D4
shouldl
Does the contractor's control plan • Development of a list of critical
s or minimize the reliability is only half the:
risk? such as
on
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ANALYSIS TOPIC A2
ANALYSIS TOPIC A3
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RADC RELIABILITY ENGINEER'S TOOLKIT
ANALYSIS TOPIC A5
Topic A6: Use of Existing Reliability Data
theseitemsmaking^useof avaHable fteld and/or test failure data the only practical
way to estimate their reliability. If this situation exists, the following table
summarizes the information that is desired.
Topic A9: R e d u n d a n c y E q u a t i o n s
Many military electronic systems readiness and availability requirements exceed
the level of reliability to which a serial chain system can be practically designed.
Use of high quality parts, a sound thermal design and extensive stress derating
may not be enough. Fault tolerance, or the ability of a system design to tolerate a
failure or degradation without system failure, is required. The most common form
of fault tolerance is redundancy where additional, usually identical, units are added
to a system in parallel with the other units. Because this situation is very common,
the reliability equations for common redundancy situations are included below.'
The following represents a sample list of specific redundancy relationships which
define failure rate as a function of the specific type of redundancy employed. For a
more comprehensive treatment of redundancy concepts and the reliability
improvements achievable through their applications see RADOTR-77-287, "A
Redundancy Notebook."
A.
(n-q-1)!(n)"
£ 1T
Ec uati
* °n3 n[n\ + (1 -P)|x]A. Equations nX
Xn/n+1 =
" n. + n(P + 1)\ P+T
\ A = 50 x 10 -6
XB = 180 X10" 6
1/M c t = 1
TOOLKIT 117
ANALYSIS TOPIC A9
Example 3:
Determine the effective failure rate for 8 of 10 identical units required with no repair.
The failure rate of a single unit is 60 f/106 hours.
k = 60 x 10 -6
6
,
A.(10-2)/10 _ 60x 10 7"
1
1=10-2
T
I
60x10"®
^8/10 =
1 + 1+ J_
8 9 10
Having two redundant units improves the system failure rate from 480 f/106 hours
(8 units required x 60 f/106 hours each) to 179 f/106 hours.
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RADC RELIABILITY TOOLKIT
ANALYSIS—TOPIC A10
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RADC RELIABILITY I
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RADC RELIABILITY I 5 TOOLKIT
ANALYSIS—TOPIC A10
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RADC RELIABILITY ENGINEER'S TOOLKIT
ANALYSIS TOPIC A11
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RADC RELIABILITY ENGINEER'S TOOLKIT 91
ANALYSIS—TOPIC A10
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RADC RELIABILITY I 5 TOOLKIT
ANALYSIS—TOPIC A10
Review Plans/Procedures
T8 Review FRACAS 106
T9 Reliability Demonstration Plan Checklist 108
T10 Reliability Test Procedure Checklist 112
T11 Maintainability Test Plan Checklist 113
F i g u r e T1-1: ESS P r o c e s s
Level of
Temperature range
Piece Parts: Begin the manufacturing and repair process with 100 defects per million or
less (see note 10).
RADC TOOLKIT
TESTING—TOPIC T5
Perform if three or
Perform if unit is less than half of predicted.
should
induced or
General description of 1
Security of test area.
Security of test equipment and records.
Test (ESS).
of units to be
of allowafc
Description of MIL-HDBK-781 test plan showing accept, reject and
List of
and schedule of test reports to be
Test Schedule
List of all
Depends on:
Availability of program resources to support on-site personnel.
How important R&M are to program
Availability and capability of other government on-site personnel (i.e., Defense
Contract Administrative Service (DCAS), Air Force Plant Representative Office
(AFPRO), Naval Plant Representative Office (NAVPRO), etc.).
Confidence in and credibility of contractor.
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analyze the ettects ot storage, handling and transportation on the system reliability.
A-19
WARRANTIES
Air Force policy documents indicate that the Air Force will require a warranty plan
for each procurement documenting the responsibilities, decisions, taskings and
strategies for warranties. Table 3.2 lists offices that have been designated Air
Force warranty focal points.
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TOOLKIT A-29
to include
only and don't apply to
should be made of
can be by
I Re datk of
can be by
or by infrared photography.
(4)
Design Guideline: During normal operation, the module should continuously
monitor itself through a background diagnostic test. The background diagnostic
and 1
Recommendation: Tolerance review should be performed early in
(4)
Design Guideline: When thermal limiting is no longer capable of maintaining
internal temperature at an acceptable level, the power supply should automatically
shut down. Operation should not resume until the power supply is reset.
Temperature sense circuits should remain active during shut down.
Analysis Recommendation: Compliance with the specified operation should be
verified throughout the design process.
Test Recommendation: Specified operation of the protective device should be
induced by application of the anomalous condition protected against. Correct
operation of the protective device should be observed. Normal specified power
supply operation should be verified after removal of the anomalous condition.
control circuits in the power supply do not have adequate voltage to regulate the
outputs. This should include the time during normal start-up when generators are
not producing their normal output voltage.
Analysis Recommendation: Compliance with the specified operation should be
verified throughout the design process.
Test Recommendation: Specified operation of the protective device should be
induced by application of the anomalous condition protected against. Correct
operation of the protective device should be observed. Normal specified power
supply operation should be verified after removal of the anomalous condition.
TOOLKIT A-41
true MTBF is 750
b. There is a 20
500 hours irisk).
c. The lower test MTBF (6,) is 500 hours (750/1.5).
d. The duration of the test is 10,750 hours (21.5 x 500).
RADC RELIABILITY I
RELIABILITY DEMONSTRATION TESTING
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5.3.1.1 Two-Sided Confidence Level for a Test Terminated On a Failure. Two-
sided confidence levels are calculated if it is desired to put both upper and lower
bounds on a point estimate MTBF (0).
5.3.1.1.1 Failure Terminated (Two-Sided) Example: A reliability demonstration
test is terminated at the seventh failure which occurs at 820 hours total test time.
What are the two-sided 80 percent confidence limits?
Solution: C = 7
§ = 820/7 = 117.14
Confidence = 1 — risk = 1 — a = .8
a = 1 - .8 = .2
777 ^ 6^ 210.5
There is an 80 percent probability that the true MTBF, 0, is between 77.7 hours and
210.5 hours.
5.3.1.2 One-Sided Confidence Level for a Test Terminated on a Failure. A
majority of confidence level calculations are concerned only with determining
whether a minimum level of MTBF has been exceeded with a certain level of
confidence. This is without regard to what the upper bound may be.
5.3.1.2.1 Failure Terminated (One-Sided) Example: A reliabilil
test is terminated at 820 hours total test time after the occurrence of the
failure. What is the one-sided lower 80 percent confidence limit?
Solution: C = 7
0 = 117.14
Confidence - 1 - risk = 1 - a = .8
a - 0.2
T u. rr o n 2x7x117.14
From Table 5.3: 0 ^ —
X (1 .2), 2 x 7
o- j.r - A 1639.96
Simplifying: 0 ^ —-
X .8, 14
There is an 80 percent probability that the true MTBF, 0, is at least 90.1 hours.
5.3.2 Time Terminated Tests: The procedure for calculating either one sided or
two sided confidence intervals for a time terminated test is analogous to the
procedure just presented for the failure terminated cases.
5.4 Poisson Distribution. The Poisson distribution is useful in calculating the
probability that a certain number of failures will occur over a certain length of time
for systems exhibiting exponential failure distributions (i.e., non-redundant
systems). The Poisson model can be stated as follows: '
PM - S F
Where: P(r) = probability of exactly r failures occurring
k = the true failure rate per hour (i.e., the failure rate which would be
exhibited over an infinite period)
t = the test time
r = the number of failure occurrences
e = 2.71828...,
! = factorial symbol (e.g., 4! = 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 = 24, 0! = 1,1! = 1)
The probability of exactly 0 failures results in the exponential form of this
distribution which is used to calculate the probability of success for a given period
of time (i.e., P(0) = e~xt). The probability of more than one failure occurring is the
sum of the probabilities of individual failures occurring. For example, the probability
of two or less failures occurring is P(0) + P(1) + P(2). Table 5.5 is a tabulation of
exact probabilities used to find the probability of an exact number of failures
occurring. Table 5.6 is a tabulation of cumulative probabilities used to find the
probability of a specific number of failures, or less, occurring.
5.4.1 Poisson Example 1: If the true MTBF of a system is 200 hours and a
reliability demonstration test is conducted for 1000 hours, what is the probability of
accepting tne system if three or less failures are allowed?
= 5
Solution: Expected number of failures = Xt = T T ^ F =
From Table 5.6. the probability of three or less tailures (probability of acceptance)
given that five are expected is .265. Theretore. there is only a 26.5 percent chance
that this system will be accepted it subjected to this test.
5.4.2 Poisson Example 2: A system has an MTBF of 50 hours. What is the
probability of two or more failures during a 10 hour mission?
= =
Solution: Expected number of failures = y^fgp
The probability of two or more failures is one minus the probability of one or less .
failures. From Table 5.6. P(r^1) when .2 are expected is .962.
P(r^2) = 1 - P(nsM)
1 - .982 - .018
Therefore, there is a very remote chance (1.8 percent) that a system with a 50 hour
MTBF will experience two or more tailures during a 10 hour mission.
5.4.3 Poisson Example 3: A system has an MTBF ot 50 hours. What is the
probability of experiencing two failures during a 10 hour mission?
From Table 5.5. the probability of experiencing exactly two failures when .2 are
expected is .017 or 1.7 percent. It should be noted that the probability ot
experiencing two or more failures, as determined in the last example, can also be
determined from this table by adding P(r = 2) + P(r = 3) when .2 are expected
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and loosely defined thresholds are needed but placing accept/reject criteria, or
using a growth test as a demonstration, defeat the purpose of running them. A
degree of progress monitoring is necessary even when the contractor knows that
following the reliability growth test he will be held accountable by a final RQT. Tight
thresholds make the test an RQT in disguise. Reliability growth can be incentivized
but shouldn't be. To reward a contractor for meeting a certain threshold in a shorter
time or by indicating "if the RGT results are good, the RQT will be waived," the
contractor's incentive to "find and fix" is diminished. The growth test's primary
purpose is to improve the design, not to evaluate the design.
What is the relationship between an RQT and RGT?
The RQT is an "accounting task" used to measure the reliability of a fixed design
configuration. It has the benefit of holding the contractor accountable some day
down the road from his initial design process. As such, he is encouraged to
seriously carry out the other design related reliability tasks. The RGT is an
"engineering task" designed to improve the design reliability. It recognizes that the
drawing board design of a complex system cannot be perfect from a reliability point
of view and allocates the necessary time to fine tune the design by finding
problems and designing them out. Monitoring, tracking and assessing the resulting
data gives insight into the efficiency of the process and provides nonliability
persons with a tool for evaluating the development's reliability status and for
reallocating resources when necessary. The forms of testing serve very different
purposes and complement each other in development of systems and equipments.
An RGT is not a substitute for an RQT, or other reliability design tasks.
How much validity/confidence should be placed on the numerical results of
RGT?
Associating a hard reliability estimate from a growth process, while mathematically
practical, has the tone of an assessment process rather than an improvement
process, especially if an RQT assessment will not follow the RGT. In an ideal
situation, where contractors are not driven by profit motives, a reliability growth test
could serve as an improvement and assessment vehicle. Since this is not the real
world, the best that can be done if meaningful quantitative results are needed
without an RQT, is to closely monitor the contractor RGT Use of the AMSAA model
provides the necessary statistical procedures for associating confidence levels
with reliability results. In doing so, closer control over the operating conditions and
failure determinations of the RGT must be exercised than if the test is for
improvement purposes only. A better approach is to use a less closely controlled
growth test as an improvement technique (or a structured extension of FRACAS,
with greater emphasis on corrective action) to fine tune the design as insurance of
an accept decision in an RQT. With this approach, monitoring an improvement
trend is more appropriate than development of hard reliability estimates. Then use
a closely controlled RQT to determine acceptance and predict operational results.
6.3 Duane Model. Because the Duane model is the one most commonly used, it
will be further explained. The model assumes that the plot of MTBF versus time is
a straight line when plotted on log-log paper. The main advantage of this model is
that it is easy to use. The disadvantage of the model is it assumes that a fix is
incorporated immediately after a failure occurs (before further test time is
Fa = Test acceleration factor, based on the degree to which the test environment
cycle represents the operational environmental cycle.
MTBF(o) . [a. +
MTBF(t) 1
( F ^ (Xp) + K ^ e - *
X 100
c. Percent MTBF Improvement = ^ j B F ( o )
6.4.3 Example:
To illustrate application of the reliability growth prediction procedure, consider the
following hypothetical example of an avionics equipment to be subjected to
reliability growth testing during full-scale development. The following assumptions
are made:
• 40 percent of the equipment is new design; the remainder is comprised of
mature, off-the-shelf items.
• The MIL-HDBK-217 MTBF prediction is 300 hours (Xp = 1/300).
• An RGT program is to be conducted during which 3000 hours will be
accumulated on the equipment.
• The operational cycle for the equipment is a ten-hour aircraft mission.
• The test profile eliminates the period of operation in a relatively benign
environment (e.g., the cruise portion of the mission) resulting in a test cycle of
two hours.
FA - 10/2 = 5
K2 = (0.0005/6.5) x 5 = 0.0003846
Hence, the predicted reliability growth is from an initial MTBF of 156 hours to an
improved MTBF of 232 hours, approximately a 50 percent improvement.
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Appendix 8
Reliability and Maintainability
Data Sources
RELIABILITY AND MAINTAINABILITYEDUCATO
I NSOURCES
• Data Sources
; (Jan Howell)
Autovon: 527-3066
CDS: F-16 Central
Dynamics Research (Vern Vutech)
AFLC LOC/TLPO (Robert DeSauty)
Autovon: 787-5646
i Logically Analyzed and Produced (MILAP)
Langley AFB VA (Sgt Young)
WR-^cfMik^Creasy) 1
Robins AFB GA
(Avionics)
NAMSO (Manny Pierucci)
(717) 790-2031
(Ships)
NAMSO (Larry Costelac)
(717) 790-7225
NAVAIR or NAC
Autovon: 724-7284
(FAN)
AMCCOM (Robert Miller)
(309) 782-2421
Part of FAN
(EPR)
Part of FAN
Quality of
Part of FAN
(SDC)
Part of FAN
Test Incidei (TIR)
Part of FAN
A-81
9.1 R&M Education Sources
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RELIABILITY AND MAINTAINABILITY EDUCATION SOURCES
Army Offerings:
U.S. Army Management Engineering Training Activity (AMETA)
Director, AMXOM/PMR
Rock Island IL 61299-7040
Autovon: 793-4041
Commercial: 309-782-4041
These courses are primarily for DoD personnel but if certified as beneficial to the
DoD, contractor personnel may attend on a space available basis.
The University of Arizona has long offered a Master of Science degree with a
reliability engineering option. They also conduct an annual five day Reliability
Engineering and Management Institute, provide short courses and video taped
instruction. Contact Dr. Dimitri Kececioglu, Aerospace and Mechanical
Engineering Department, Bldg 16, Rm 200B, University of Arizona, Tucson AZ
85721.
The University of Maryland has offered a Master of Science in Reliability
Engineering since the fall of 1986. They also provide video taped instruction.
Contact Dr. Marvin L. Roush, Center for Reliability Engineering, Chemical and
Nuclear Engineering Building, University of Maryland, College Park MD 20742.
The New Jersey Institute of Technology has a long standing graduate program in
reliability engineering. Contact Raj Misra, PhD, Professor of Electrical Engineering
and Reliability, NJIT, Newark NJ 07102, (201)596-3511.
Individual courses on R&M subjects have been included in the curricula of many
schools, including Pennsylvania State University, VPI, USC5 Virginia Tech, SMU
and Syracuse University. There are probably many more.
TOOLKIT A-93
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Appendix 11
Major Air Force R&M Focal Points
MAJOR AIR FORCE R&M FOCAL POINTS
A-111
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ATF
ATG
ATP
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C-ROM
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A-96 RADC RELIABILITY TOOLKIT