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The margin of error for this poll is +/- 1.06% and is In Toronto:
accurate 19 times out of 20. Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
(full methodology appears at the end of this
report) Find us online at:
www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
SCHEER CONSERVATIVES TAKE LEAD: CPC 37, LPC 35, NDP 12, GREEN 8
31 March 2019 (Ottawa, ON) – The Conservative Party of Canada have taken the lead nationally, but Justin
Trudeau’s Liberals are still ahead in key regions of the country.
Those are the findings from Mainstreet Research’s latest UltraPoll, a conglomeration of ten provincial polls.
The poll surveyed 8501 Canadians between March 19th and 25th 2019. The poll has a margin of error of +/-
1.06% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.
“The SNC-Lavalin controversy has stung the Liberals but has not knocked them out,” said Quito Maggi,
President and CEO of Mainstreet Research. “The one question remaining is whether more damage will hit the
Liberals because of this issue.”
Among decided and leaning voters, the Conservatives led by Andrew Scheer have 37.4% (+2.3% since
Mainstreet’s last poll in January), while the the Liberals led by Justin Trudeau have 35% support (-2.2%). The
NDP led by Jagmeet Singh have 11.6% support (+0.1%), while the Greens with Elizabeth May at the helm
have 7.9% (+0.7%). The Bloc Quebecois have 3.1% (-0.1%) overall, but have 13.3% in Quebec. The People’s
Party led by Maxime Bernier have 3.8% (-0.4 %).
“The good news for Scheer is that Conservatives have posted gains in every region,” added Maggi. “But the
good news for the Liberals is that despite the drops in support they are still leading in Ontario, Quebec, and
the Atlantic provinces.”
“If an election were held today with these numbers, it would be a minority. The only question is which party
would win.”
The Conservatives have a four point lead in British Columbia, while the Liberals have large leads in Quebec
and the Atlantic provinces. The Liberals lead in Ontario is now three points, down from a six point lead in
January.
The survey also asked whether there should be a change in federal government. 63.5% thought that there
should be a change in government, with 47.6% strongly agreeing.
“Interestingly enough, 21.5% of those who said they were voting Liberal want change,” added Maggi. “If this
number gets larger, or these Liberals decide to stay at home and not vote, then Justin Trudeau would be in
some trouble come October.”
-30-
12.7%
1%
3.3% 30.8%
6.6%
2.7%
All Voters
9.5%
All Voters
Decided and Leaning Voters
33.5%
11%
1.2%
3.8%
1.2%
Liberals Conservatives New Democratic Party
3.5% 7.9%
Bloc Quebecois Greens People's Party Another Party
3.1% 34.9%
5.7% Undecided
35%
3%
11.6%
All Voters
9.1%
Decided and Leaning Voters
31.6%
37.4%
Greens
Liberals People'
s Party
Conservatives Another
NewParty
DemocraticUndecided
Party
14.6%
14.6%
47.6%
47.6%
Time
Time for
for a Change
a Change
14.4%
14.4%
15.9%
15.9%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
0 10 0 20
10 2030 30 40
40 5050 60 6070 70
80 90 80100 90 100
Very Optimistic Somewhat Optimistic Somewhat Pessimistic
Very Optimistic Somewhat Optimistic Somewhat Pessimistic
Very Pessimistic Not Sure
Are you optimistic or pessimistic about your personal finances for
the rest of the year?
breakout by party support and region
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Bloc 14.7%
Conservatives 54.1%
8.0% 36.6% 31.6% 16.1%
18.7% 12.0%
0 10 0 20
10 2030 30 40
40 5050 60 6070 70
80 90 80100 90 100
Very Optimistic Somewhat Optimistic Somewhat Pessimistic
Very Optimistic Somewhat Optimistic Somewhat Pessimistic
Very Pessimistic Not Sure
Breakout Tables
If the federal election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(all voters)
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC AB Prairies ON QC Atlantic
Liberals led by Justin Trudeau 30.8% 28.8% 32.7% 31.2% 29.6% 29.9% 32.8% 26.2% 16.6% 18.7% 35% 35.8% 33.8%
Conservatives led by Andrew Scheer 33.5% 40.4% 26.8% 25.6% 33.5% 39.3% 36.7% 30.4% 60% 46.1% 32.6% 22.4% 27.3%
NDP led by Jagmeet Singh 9.5% 6.9% 12% 13.4% 9.4% 7.3% 7.1% 15.6% 7.6% 11.4% 10.2% 6.3% 6.1%
Bloc led by Yves-François Blanchet 2.7% 3.1% 2.3% 2.6% 2.8% 2.9% 2.4% - - - - 11.5% -
Green Party led by Elizabeth May 6.6% 5.4% 7.7% 9% 6.2% 5.9% 4.5% 10.7% 2.7% 5.4% 6.1% 6.1% 9.9%
People's Party led by Maxime Bernier 3.3% 4.2% 2.4% 4.2% 3.9% 2.6% 2.1% 4.1% 3.1% 2.7% 2.7% 4.3% 2.2%
Another Party 1% 1% 0.9% 0.9% 1.4% 0.4% 1.2% 0.6% 0.8% 1.2% 1.3% 0.5% 1.3%
Undecided 12.7% 10.2% 15.2% 13% 13% 11.7% 13.1% 12.5% 9.4% 14.4% 12% 13% 19.4%
Unweighted Frequency 8501 4746 3755 1756 2219 2410 2116 923 1160 1505 1290 940 2683
Weighted Frequency 8501 4210 4291 2364 2129 2342 1667 1158 961 554 3259 1985 583
This survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and has not been sponsored by any third-
party organization.
The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from various commercially available sources and random digit dialing.
The survey that dialed from the directory was conducted as a stratified dial of the ten Canadian
provinces. In the case of random digit dials, respondents were asked the additional question
of what region of the country they resided in. Respondents were dialed at random.
At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone
number. The calls were staggered over times of day and two days to maximize the chances
of making contact with a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as
possible across the field period.
The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.
mainstreetresearch.ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If
a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis
preceding the question.
The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults
18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age,
gender, and region.
The margin of error for this poll is +/- 1.06% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are
higher in each subsample.
The margins of error for each subsample is as following: Males: +/- 1.42%, Females: +/- 1.6%,
18-34 age group: +/- 2.34%, 35-49 age group: +/- 2.08%, 50-64 age group: +/- 2%, 65+
age group: +/- 2.13%, British Columbia: +/- 3.23%, Alberta: +/- 2.88%, Prairies: +/- 2.53%,
Ontario: +/- 2.73%, Quebec: +/- 3.2%, Atlantic Canada: +/- 1.89%.
In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and
practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of
opinion polls. Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of
error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.