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Infrastructure
India JUNE 14, 2018
THEME
BSE-30: 35,600
NHAI has doubled its asset base over FY2015-18. Adjusting for spends on land acquisition, this
implies almost a quadrupling of spending on construction by NHAI over this period. Even
assuming a marginal decline in spending on construction by the private sector would imply
more than doubling in overall construction activity over such period. For its investments in land
acquisition and road construction over FY2015-18, NHAI has largely relied on borrowings (`0.9
tn) and equity (`0.5 tn). Cess funds have likely made a comeback in FY2018. We base our
analysis on the recently released FY2018 results for NHAI (refer).
Borrowings to increase further; rating agencies draw comfort from government support
The static total cost of land acquisition masks the increase in per hectare cost and would start
increasing again as quantum of land acquisition starts reflecting the increasing pace of
construction. Uptick in construction spending would increase debt-to-equity levels to 1X by
end-FY2020. The recent CRISIL report (refer) and ICRA report (refer) maintain stable AAA rating
for the upcoming large FY2019 debt issuance, drawing comfort from government support to
road projects (implied guarantee against debt, cess funds). We draw additional comfort from
ability of NHAI to monetize its large asset base (through ToT or InvIT) to pare down debt. While
noting the uncertainty in cess funds (no fixed allocation formula now), we would rely on NHAI’s
ability to monetize investments in roads versus other vying infrastructure classes.
Recent success of ToT adds another support in monetization; InvIT may be in the offing
The recent wining ToT bid reflects (1) willingness of bidders to pay for potential under-collection
of toll and confidence in their ability to improve collections and (2) their ability to efficiently
price in traffic risk diversified over a region. Such factors (beyond low cost of funding) may drive
NHAI towards establishing an InvIT. To put some numbers on the table, NHAI has `1.8-2 tn of
completed assets generating ~`85 bn of annual toll revenues. A similar EV/sales multiple from
Macquarie’s winning ToT bid put to overall toll revenues would imply enough cash flows to pay
down NHAI’s ~`1 tn debt, leaving behind `0.8-0.9 tn of CWIP to monetize incrementally.
Remain positive on construction companies with ability to scale up execution Aditya Mongia
aditya.mongia@kotak.com
The ability of NHAI to fund growth in ordering reaffirms our positive stance on construction Mumbai: +91-22-4336-0884
companies. As detailed in our earlier note on current utilization of national highways, we
Ajinkya Bhat
consider the impetus on safe highway travel over and above the needs of improving pace of ajinkya.bhat@kotak.com
transportation to drive ordering quantum. Increased incidence of HAM projects would help de- Mumbai: +91-22-4336-0883
risk the ecosystem from factors such as interest cost and inflation that are beyond the control of
construction companies; more on this thesis in a separate note. We remain positive on Sadbhav
Engineering (`325, ADD, TP: `460), Ashoka Buildcon (`240, BUY, TP: `310), IRB (`234, BUY, TP:
`330) and Dilip Buildcon (`843, BUY, TP: `1,220).
For Private Circulation Only. FOR IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT KOTAK SECURITIES’ RATING SYSTEM AND OTHER DISCLOSURES, REFER TO THE END OF THIS MATERIAL.
India Infrastructure
NHAI has grown its asset base at ~24% CAGR over the past three years. The uptick in
past two years has been driven by scale-up in construction spending by NHAI. Land
acquisition drove the uptick in asset base in FY2016 and has remained stagnant over the
past two years.
On the funding front, leverage has increased meaningfully over FY2015-17, given low
cess collection in FY2017. Higher spending on construction in FY2018 has more than
negated likely benefits of flattish yoy cost of land acquisition and uptick in cess funds.
Debt-to-equity levels have likely increased to 0.7X by end-FY2018 versus 0.54X at end-
FY2017.
Higher cess funds in FY2018 would largely fund the FY2018 land-acquisition cost of
~`210 bn.
Exhibit 1: NHAI has doubled its asset base over the past three years
Asset base for NHAI including capital WIP, March fiscal year-ends, 2010-18E
0 -
2018E
2011
2012
2013
2015
2016
2017
2010
2014
Source: NHAI's annual reports, BSE FY2018 results release, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates
Exhibit 2: NHAI’s construction spending has quadrupled over FY2015-18; overall construction spending has more than doubled
Spending on construction by NHAI and private sector, March fiscal year-ends, 2010-18E
80 40
600 46
521 59 55
272 67 66
70 71
60 75
406
400 348 287
285 300
259 259 40
269
185 260 60
200 199 212 408 54
154 173 45
86 20 41
235 30 29 33 34
25
99 106 137
88 86 88 86
0 0
2018E
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018E
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Notes:
(a) NHAI spending is calculated as increase in asset base less spend on land acquisition.
(b) Private sector spending is estimated to be flat at FY2016 levels over the past two years.
Source: Outcome budgets, BSE FY2018 results release, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates
250
200
169
154
150
100 84
74 69 69
62 60
50 23
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018E
Notes:
(a) Land acquisition spending for FY2018 is annualized for 9MFY18 data.
(b) Cess funds for FY2018 are based on changes in capital base for NHAI over FY2018.
Source: Lok Sabha Questions, BSE FY2018 results release, NHAI, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates
Shareholders' funds (LHS, Rs bn) Borrowings (LHS, Rs bn) Debt to equity ratio (RHS, X)
5,000 1.00
4,000 0.80
0.68
0.36
2,000 0.40
0.26 0.26 0.24
0.23
1,000 0.14 0.11 0.12 0.20
- -
2018E
2011
2012
2015
2016
2009
2010
2013
2014
2017
Notes:
(a) We assume the proceeds of ~Rs90 bn and related reduction in toll revenues in FY2019 based on ToT
award.
The cost of land acquisition would unlikely remain static for long. The static cost of land
acquisition masks the increasing cost per hectare. It is only because of the fall in area of
land acquired that overall cost of land acquisition has been stagnant over FY2016-18.
The cost of land acquisition per hectare has crossed `30 mn per hectare in FY2018. The
pace of construction keeps on increasing. While it is difficult to ascertain how much area
per km of awarding NHAI would buy incrementally, such quantum per unit of
construction has remained range-bound.
Increase in construction activity thus would possibly drive cost of land acquisition to new
highs. Assessing how much more scale-up can happen in cess funds has become difficult
to predict given change in rules for allocating fuel cess. In the recent budget, the
government has done away with a fixed formula for allocating proceeds of cess funds,
giving the power to a committee to be formed by the central government and to be
headed by the finance minister (refer).
We would want to rely on the ability to monetize road assets versus other asset classes in
infrastructure where cess funds can be allocated.
Exhibit 5: Cost of land acquisition will likely start growing again as area to be acquired starts to reflect accelerating construction activity
Cost of land acquisition for NHAI, March fiscal year-ends, 2010-20E
Land acquisition cost (LHS, Rs bn) Construction activity (km) Hectares (#)
Cost per hectare (RHS, Rs mn/ hectare) 4,500 14,000
500 35 12,184
32 32 32 4,000
12,000
10,595
30 3,500 9,801
400 9,285 10,000
24 24 3,000 8,577 8,655
25
6,925 6,733 7,491
2,500 8,000
300 6,636
20 6,224
2,000 6,000
14
15 1,500
200
4,000
9
8 10 1,000
100 5 2,000
4 500
3 5
0 0
2018E
2019E
2020E
2010
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2011
2017
0 0
2018E
2019E
2020E
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: Lok Sabha Questions, CRISIL report, NHAI, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates
Exhibit 6: NHAI has been receiving ~25% of cess funds; however, the share may vary incrementally
Fuel cess on petroleum products in India, March fiscal year-ends, 2010-18E
60
56
800 60
41 42 41
600 37 45
400 26 30
21
200 15
3
0 0
2018E
2010
2012
2013
2014
2016
2017
2011
2015
Exhibit 7: Ease of monetization for roads and bridges relative to other infrastructure assets classes would support the case for
maintaining share in cess funds
Sectors eligible to receive fund allocation from fuel cess collected by the government
Exhibit 9: CRSIL and ICRA have AAA stable rating for NHAI's upcoming FY2019 issuance of Rs620 bn
Credit rating of current and upcoming debt issuance of NHAI
Source: ICRA (April 11, 2018) and CRISIL (March 29, 2018) reports
Against ~`8 bn of revenues, NHAI was able to achieve `96 bn as EV payout from
Macquarie in the recent toll-operate-transfer (ToT) bid. A similar 13X multiple in
remaining ~`80 bn revenues would yield `1 tn, equivalent to current borrowings of NHAI.
NHAI would still be having access of incremental revenues/monetization of remaining
`0.8 tn of capital work in progress.
Exhibit 10: The implied EV/sales multiple from winning ToT bid applied to remaining toll revenues
can help repay current debt
Scenario-based valuation of toll revenue of NHAI (Rs bn)
Debt (Rs bn, LHS) Completed asset base (Rs bn, LHS)
Debt to commissioned assets (X, LHS)
2,500 0.50
2,000 0.40
1,500 0.30
1,000 0.20
500 0.10
- 0.00
2018E
2010
2012
2013
2015
2017
2011
2014
2016
"I, Aditya Mongia, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the
subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be,
directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report."
60%
Percentage of companies within each category for
which Kotak Institutional Equities and or its affiliates has
50%
provided investment banking services within the
previous 12 months.
40% * The above categories are defined as follows: Buy = We
33.8%
expect this stock to deliver more than 15% returns over
30% the next 12 months; Add = We expect this stock to
25.6%
23.7% deliver 5-15% returns over the next 12 months; Reduce
= We expect this stock to deliver -5-+5% returns over
20% 16.9% the next 12 months; Sell = We expect this stock to deliver
less than -5% returns over the next 12 months. O ur
10% target prices are also on a 12-month horizon basis.
2.4% 3.9% 3.9% These ratings are used illustratively to comply with
1.4%
applicable regulations. As of 31/03/2018 Kotak
0%
Institutional Equities Investment Research had
BUY ADD REDUCE SELL
investment ratings on 207 equity securities.
BUY. We expect this stock to deliver more than 15% returns over the next 12 months.
ADD. We expect this stock to deliver 5-15% returns over the next 12 months.
REDUCE. We expect this stock to deliver -5-+5% returns over the next 12 months.
SELL. We expect this stock to deliver <-5% returns over the next 12 months.
Other definitions
Coverage view. The coverage view represents each analyst’s overall fundamental outlook on the Sector. The coverage view will consist of one of the following
designations: Attractive, Neutral, Cautious.
Other ratings/identifiers
NR = Not Rated. The investment rating and target price, if any, have been suspended temporarily. Such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulation(s)
and/or Kotak Securities policies in circumstances when Kotak Securities or its affiliates is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or strategic transaction
involving this company and in certain other circumstances.
RS = Rating Suspended. Kotak Securities Research has suspended the investment rating and price target, if any, for this stock, because there is not a sufficient
fundamental basis for determining an investment rating or target. The previous investment rating and price target, if any, are no longer in effect for this stock
and should not be relied upon.
NA = Not Available or Not Applicable. The information is not available for display or is not applicable.