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ATTRACTIVE

Infrastructure
India JUNE 14, 2018
THEME
BSE-30: 35,600

NHAI—taking charge. NHAI’s recently announced FY2018 financials help us appreciate


more than doubling of overall construction spending in roads (including PPP) over the
past three years. The same also suggests adequate funding support by banks and the
government. The potential to monetize asset base over time and implicit guarantee on
NHAI’s borrowings by the central government would limit issues related to future
funding for NHAI. From that perspective, the absence of a fixed allocation formula for
cess funds matters less. Within our coverage universe, we would prefer companies with
past track-record of having scaled up execution (Sadbhav Engineering, Dilip Buildcon).

NHAI’s balance sheet size doubles over past three years

NHAI has doubled its asset base over FY2015-18. Adjusting for spends on land acquisition, this
implies almost a quadrupling of spending on construction by NHAI over this period. Even
assuming a marginal decline in spending on construction by the private sector would imply
more than doubling in overall construction activity over such period. For its investments in land
acquisition and road construction over FY2015-18, NHAI has largely relied on borrowings (`0.9
tn) and equity (`0.5 tn). Cess funds have likely made a comeback in FY2018. We base our
analysis on the recently released FY2018 results for NHAI (refer).

Borrowings to increase further; rating agencies draw comfort from government support

The static total cost of land acquisition masks the increase in per hectare cost and would start
increasing again as quantum of land acquisition starts reflecting the increasing pace of
construction. Uptick in construction spending would increase debt-to-equity levels to 1X by
end-FY2020. The recent CRISIL report (refer) and ICRA report (refer) maintain stable AAA rating
for the upcoming large FY2019 debt issuance, drawing comfort from government support to
road projects (implied guarantee against debt, cess funds). We draw additional comfort from
ability of NHAI to monetize its large asset base (through ToT or InvIT) to pare down debt. While
noting the uncertainty in cess funds (no fixed allocation formula now), we would rely on NHAI’s
ability to monetize investments in roads versus other vying infrastructure classes.

Recent success of ToT adds another support in monetization; InvIT may be in the offing

The recent wining ToT bid reflects (1) willingness of bidders to pay for potential under-collection
of toll and confidence in their ability to improve collections and (2) their ability to efficiently
price in traffic risk diversified over a region. Such factors (beyond low cost of funding) may drive
NHAI towards establishing an InvIT. To put some numbers on the table, NHAI has `1.8-2 tn of
completed assets generating ~`85 bn of annual toll revenues. A similar EV/sales multiple from
Macquarie’s winning ToT bid put to overall toll revenues would imply enough cash flows to pay
down NHAI’s ~`1 tn debt, leaving behind `0.8-0.9 tn of CWIP to monetize incrementally.

Remain positive on construction companies with ability to scale up execution Aditya Mongia
aditya.mongia@kotak.com
The ability of NHAI to fund growth in ordering reaffirms our positive stance on construction Mumbai: +91-22-4336-0884
companies. As detailed in our earlier note on current utilization of national highways, we
Ajinkya Bhat
consider the impetus on safe highway travel over and above the needs of improving pace of ajinkya.bhat@kotak.com
transportation to drive ordering quantum. Increased incidence of HAM projects would help de- Mumbai: +91-22-4336-0883
risk the ecosystem from factors such as interest cost and inflation that are beyond the control of
construction companies; more on this thesis in a separate note. We remain positive on Sadbhav
Engineering (`325, ADD, TP: `460), Ashoka Buildcon (`240, BUY, TP: `310), IRB (`234, BUY, TP:
`330) and Dilip Buildcon (`843, BUY, TP: `1,220).

Kotak Institutional Equities Research


kotak.research@kotak.com
Mumbai: +91-22-4336-0000

For Private Circulation Only. FOR IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT KOTAK SECURITIES’ RATING SYSTEM AND OTHER DISCLOSURES, REFER TO THE END OF THIS MATERIAL.
India Infrastructure

NHAI’s balance sheet size doubles over past three years

 NHAI has grown its asset base at ~24% CAGR over the past three years. The uptick in
past two years has been driven by scale-up in construction spending by NHAI. Land
acquisition drove the uptick in asset base in FY2016 and has remained stagnant over the
past two years.

 On the funding front, leverage has increased meaningfully over FY2015-17, given low
cess collection in FY2017. Higher spending on construction in FY2018 has more than
negated likely benefits of flattish yoy cost of land acquisition and uptick in cess funds.
Debt-to-equity levels have likely increased to 0.7X by end-FY2018 versus 0.54X at end-
FY2017.

 Higher cess funds in FY2018 would largely fund the FY2018 land-acquisition cost of
~`210 bn.

Exhibit 1: NHAI has doubled its asset base over the past three years
Asset base for NHAI including capital WIP, March fiscal year-ends, 2010-18E

Asset base (LHS, Rs bn) Yoy growth (RHS, %)


28
3,000 30
25
2,500 23 2,797 25
21 21
2,000 17 20
15 16
14
1,500 15
1,408
1,000 10
924
500 5

0 -

2018E
2011

2012

2013

2015

2016

2017
2010

2014

Source: NHAI's annual reports, BSE FY2018 results release, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

2 KOTAK INSTITUTIONAL EQUITIES RESEARCH


Infrastructure India

Exhibit 2: NHAI’s construction spending has quadrupled over FY2015-18; overall construction spending has more than doubled
Spending on construction by NHAI and private sector, March fiscal year-ends, 2010-18E

NHAI Private sector (%) NHAI Private sector


800 100
680

80 40
600 46
521 59 55
272 67 66
70 71
60 75
406
400 348 287
285 300
259 259 40
269
185 260 60
200 199 212 408 54
154 173 45
86 20 41
235 30 29 33 34
25
99 106 137
88 86 88 86
0 0
2018E
2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018E
2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017
Notes:
(a) NHAI spending is calculated as increase in asset base less spend on land acquisition.
(b) Private sector spending is estimated to be flat at FY2016 levels over the past two years.

Source: Outcome budgets, BSE FY2018 results release, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

Exhibit 3: Cess funds have bounced back in FY2018


Cost of land acquisition for NHAI, March fiscal year-ends, 2010-18E

Land acquisition cost Cess funds


300

250

200
169
154
150

100 84
74 69 69
62 60
50 23

0
2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018E

Notes:
(a) Land acquisition spending for FY2018 is annualized for 9MFY18 data.
(b) Cess funds for FY2018 are based on changes in capital base for NHAI over FY2018.

Source: Lok Sabha Questions, BSE FY2018 results release, NHAI, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

KOTAK INSTITUTIONAL EQUITIES RESEARCH 3


India Infrastructure

Exhibit 4: Leverage for NHAI has increased to 0.7X as of end-FY2018


Annual trend in debt, equity and debt to equity ratio of NHAI, March fiscal year-ends, 2009-18E

Shareholders' funds (LHS, Rs bn) Borrowings (LHS, Rs bn) Debt to equity ratio (RHS, X)

5,000 1.00

4,000 0.80
0.68

3,000 0.54 0.60

0.36
2,000 0.40
0.26 0.26 0.24
0.23
1,000 0.14 0.11 0.12 0.20

- -

2018E
2011

2012

2015

2016
2009

2010

2013

2014

2017
Notes:
(a) We assume the proceeds of ~Rs90 bn and related reduction in toll revenues in FY2019 based on ToT
award.

Source: NHAI's annual reports, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

Further scale-up in funding required over FY2018-20E

 The cost of land acquisition would unlikely remain static for long. The static cost of land
acquisition masks the increasing cost per hectare. It is only because of the fall in area of
land acquired that overall cost of land acquisition has been stagnant over FY2016-18.

 The cost of land acquisition per hectare has crossed `30 mn per hectare in FY2018. The
pace of construction keeps on increasing. While it is difficult to ascertain how much area
per km of awarding NHAI would buy incrementally, such quantum per unit of
construction has remained range-bound.

 Increase in construction activity thus would possibly drive cost of land acquisition to new
highs. Assessing how much more scale-up can happen in cess funds has become difficult
to predict given change in rules for allocating fuel cess. In the recent budget, the
government has done away with a fixed formula for allocating proceeds of cess funds,
giving the power to a committee to be formed by the central government and to be
headed by the finance minister (refer).

 We would want to rely on the ability to monetize road assets versus other asset classes in
infrastructure where cess funds can be allocated.

4 KOTAK INSTITUTIONAL EQUITIES RESEARCH


Infrastructure India

Exhibit 5: Cost of land acquisition will likely start growing again as area to be acquired starts to reflect accelerating construction activity
Cost of land acquisition for NHAI, March fiscal year-ends, 2010-20E

Land acquisition cost (LHS, Rs bn) Construction activity (km) Hectares (#)
Cost per hectare (RHS, Rs mn/ hectare) 4,500 14,000
500 35 12,184
32 32 32 4,000
12,000
10,595
30 3,500 9,801
400 9,285 10,000
24 24 3,000 8,577 8,655
25
6,925 6,733 7,491
2,500 8,000
300 6,636
20 6,224
2,000 6,000
14
15 1,500
200
4,000
9
8 10 1,000
100 5 2,000
4 500
3 5
0 0

2018E

2019E

2020E
2010

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016
2011

2017
0 0
2018E

2019E

2020E
2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Source: Lok Sabha Questions, CRISIL report, NHAI, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

Exhibit 6: NHAI has been receiving ~25% of cess funds; however, the share may vary incrementally
Fuel cess on petroleum products in India, March fiscal year-ends, 2010-18E

Fuel cess Share given to NHAI Share (%)


1,000 75

60
56
800 60

41 42 41
600 37 45

400 26 30
21

200 15
3

0 0
2018E
2010

2012

2013

2014

2016

2017
2011

2015

Source: PPAC, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

KOTAK INSTITUTIONAL EQUITIES RESEARCH 5


India Infrastructure

Exhibit 7: Ease of monetization for roads and bridges relative to other infrastructure assets classes would support the case for
maintaining share in cess funds
Sectors eligible to receive fund allocation from fuel cess collected by the government

Source: Government of India, Kotak Institutional Equities

Exhibit 8: We estimate Rs1.3 tn of funding requirement for NHAI by end-FY2020


Spending and sources of funding for NHAI, 2010-20E (Rs bn)
2010-15 2015-18E 2018E-20E Drivers
Spending 868 1,389 1,996
- Acquisition @Rs 32 mn/hectare in FY2018E and 5% p.a. growth
Land acquisition 315 610 728 - Factors hectare per km to become ~3 from ~4 at present
- Assumes 5,000-6,000 km p.a. of near-term awards
Construction 553 780 1,268 - 70% share in construction spending from NHAI
Equity 601 605 697
Cess funds 344 346 505 - Expected to grow based on FY2018E budgetary allocation
- We are only relying on Rs90 bn or so of annual toll revenues beyond
ABR 257 258 191
projects ceded to Macquarie, growing at a modest pace
Borrowings 198 871 1,299 Implied shortfall in funding
End-period D/E (X) 0.2 0.7 1.0

Source: NHAI, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

Exhibit 9: CRSIL and ICRA have AAA stable rating for NHAI's upcoming FY2019 issuance of Rs620 bn
Credit rating of current and upcoming debt issuance of NHAI

Limit (Rs bn) CRISIL rating ICRA rating


Long-term borrowing programme for FY2019 620 CRISIL AAA/Stable [ICRA]AAA (Stable)
Long-term borrowing programme for FY2018 590 CRISIL AAA/Stable [ICRA]AAA (Stable)
Long-term borrowing programme for FY2017 333 CRISIL AAA/Stable [ICRA]AAA (Stable)
Tax-free bonds FY2016 190 CRISIL AAA/Stable [ICRA]AAA (Stable)
Tax-free bonds 100 CRISIL AAA/Stable
Tax-free bonds 50 CRISIL AAA/Stable
Total 1,883
End-FY2018E borrowing 1,200

Source: ICRA (April 11, 2018) and CRISIL (March 29, 2018) reports

6 KOTAK INSTITUTIONAL EQUITIES RESEARCH


Infrastructure India

Recent success of ToT adds another support in monetization


NHAI has an asset base of ~`2.7 tn, including about `2 tn of completed assets and `0.8 tn
of capital work in progress. Against the `0.8 tn investment in new assets (includes land),
NHAI would earn about `85 bn in FY2018 or sub-5% of its completed asset base. Adjusted
assets base excluding investment in land would possibly become `1.3 tn or so, against
which returns would be higher at ~13%.

 Against ~`8 bn of revenues, NHAI was able to achieve `96 bn as EV payout from
Macquarie in the recent toll-operate-transfer (ToT) bid. A similar 13X multiple in
remaining ~`80 bn revenues would yield `1 tn, equivalent to current borrowings of NHAI.
NHAI would still be having access of incremental revenues/monetization of remaining
`0.8 tn of capital work in progress.

Exhibit 10: The implied EV/sales multiple from winning ToT bid applied to remaining toll revenues
can help repay current debt
Scenario-based valuation of toll revenue of NHAI (Rs bn)

Revenue base of NHAI's first and only ToT award 7.5


EV of winning bid 97
Implied multiple (X) 12.9

Revenue of remaining projects 78


Scope to monetize at 20% lower multiple 800
Scope to monetize at similar multiple 1,000
Debt as of end-FY2018E 1,120

Source: NHAI, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

Exhibit 11: Borrowings are stabilizing at ~ 0.4 X to revenue-earning asset base


Details of the debt versus the commissioned asset base of NHAI, March fiscal year-ends, 2010-18E

Debt (Rs bn, LHS) Completed asset base (Rs bn, LHS)
Debt to commissioned assets (X, LHS)

2,500 0.50

2,000 0.40

1,500 0.30

1,000 0.20

500 0.10

- 0.00
2018E
2010

2012

2013

2015

2017
2011

2014

2016

Source: NHAI, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

KOTAK INSTITUTIONAL EQUITIES RESEARCH 7


Disclosures

"I, Aditya Mongia, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the
subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be,
directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report."

Kotak Institutional Equities Research coverage universe


Distribution of ratings/investment banking relationships
Percentage of companies covered by Kotak Institutional
70%
Equities, within the specified category.

60%
Percentage of companies within each category for
which Kotak Institutional Equities and or its affiliates has
50%
provided investment banking services within the
previous 12 months.
40% * The above categories are defined as follows: Buy = We
33.8%
expect this stock to deliver more than 15% returns over
30% the next 12 months; Add = We expect this stock to
25.6%
23.7% deliver 5-15% returns over the next 12 months; Reduce
= We expect this stock to deliver -5-+5% returns over
20% 16.9% the next 12 months; Sell = We expect this stock to deliver
less than -5% returns over the next 12 months. O ur
10% target prices are also on a 12-month horizon basis.
2.4% 3.9% 3.9% These ratings are used illustratively to comply with
1.4%
applicable regulations. As of 31/03/2018 Kotak
0%
Institutional Equities Investment Research had
BUY ADD REDUCE SELL
investment ratings on 207 equity securities.

Source: Kotak Institutional Equities As of March 31, 2018

Ratings and other definitions/identifiers


Definitions of rating

BUY. We expect this stock to deliver more than 15% returns over the next 12 months.

ADD. We expect this stock to deliver 5-15% returns over the next 12 months.

REDUCE. We expect this stock to deliver -5-+5% returns over the next 12 months.

SELL. We expect this stock to deliver <-5% returns over the next 12 months.

Our target prices are also on a 12-month horizon basis.

Other definitions

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Other ratings/identifiers

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and should not be relied upon.

NA = Not Available or Not Applicable. The information is not available for display or is not applicable.

NM = Not Meaningful. The information is not meaningful and is therefore excluded.

8 KOTAK INSTITUTIONAL EQUITIES RESEARCH


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