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Learning Unit Objectives

The objective of this chapter on EVALUATING a SINGLE


PROJECT is to discuss and critique contemporary methods for
determining project profitability. Proposed capital projects can
be evaluated in several ways.
1. Determining the Minimum Attractive Rate of Return (MARR)

EVALUATING a 2. The Present Worth Method


3. The Future Worth Method
SINGLE PROJECT
Engr. Charity Hope Gayatin 4. The Annual Worth Method
5. The Internal Rate of Return Method
6. The External Rate of Return Method
7. The Payback (Payout) Period Method (generally not
appropriate as a primary decision rule)

Minimum Attractive Rate of Return (MARR) Minimum Attractive Rate of Return (MARR)
To be attractive, a capital project must provide a return that Many elements contribute to determining the MARR.
exceeds a minimum level established by the organization.
This minimum level is reflected in a firm’s Minimum Attractive
Amount, source, and cost of money available
Rate of Return (MARR).
Number and purpose of good projects available

Perceived risk of investment opportunities

Type of organization

Present Worth Method Present Worth Method

The most-used method is the present worth method. Present worth example

The present worth (PW) is found by discounting all cash inflows Consider a project that has an initial investment of $50,000 and
and outflows to the present time at an interest rate that is that returns $18,000 per year for the next four years. If the
generally the MARR. MARR is 12%, is this a good investment?

A positive PW for an investment project means that the project


is acceptable (it satisfies the MARR).

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Present Worth Method Present Worth Method
Evaluation of New Equipment Purchase Using PW
A piece of new equipment has been proposed by engineers to Assumptions of the present worth method.
increase the productivity of a certain manual welding operation.
The investment cost is $25,000, and the equipment will have a
market value of $5,000 at the end of a study period of five years. 1. It is assumed we know the future with certainty.
Increased productivity attributable to the equipment will amount
to $8,000 pear year after extra operating costs have been 2. It is assumed we can borrow or lend money at the same
subtracted from the revenue generated by the additional interest rate.
production. A cash-flow diagram for this investment opportunity
is given below. If the firm’s MARR is 20% per year, is this proposal
a sound one? Use the PW method.
$5,000

$8,000 $8,000 $8,000 $8,000 $8,000

1 2 3 4 5

$25,000

Present Worth Method Present Worth Method

CAPITALIZED COST CAPITALIZED COST


The sum of the first cost and the present worth of all costs of
replacement, operation, and maintenance for a long time or forever.
Case 1: Maintenance / Operation
Case 1: Maintenance / Operation Determine the capitalized cost of a structure that requires an
CC = FC + A / i initial investment of P1,500,000 and an annual maintenance of
P150,000. Interest is 15%.
Case 2: Replacement
CC = FC + X
S
X=
(1 + i)K −1
S – Amount needed to replace a property every K periods
X – Amount of principal invested at rate i%, the interest on which
will amount to S every K periods

Present Worth Method Present Worth Method

CAPITALIZED COST Capitalized worth is a special variation of present


worth.
Case 2: Replacement
Capitalized worth is the present worth of all revenues or
A new boiler was installed by a textile plant at a cost of expenses over an infinite length of time.
P300,000 and projected to have a useful life of 15 years. At the
end of its useful life, it is estimated to have a salvage value of If only expenses are considered this is sometimes referred to as
P30,000. Determine the capitalized cost if interest is 18% capitalized cost.
compounded annually.
The capitalized worth method is especially useful in problems
involving endowments and public projects with indefinite lives.

As n becomes very large, (P/A) = 1/i. So, CW = A (1/i).

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Present Worth Method Future Worth Method

Capitalized worth example Future Worth (FW) Method is an alternative to the PW Method.
Looking at FW is appropriate since the primary objective is to
maximize the future wealth of owners of the firm.
Suppose that a firm wishes to endow a laboratory at a
university. The endowment principal will earn interest that FW is based on the equivalent worth of all cash inflows and
averages 8% per year, which will be sufficient to cover all outflows at the end of the study period at an interest rate that
expenditures incurred in the establishment and maintenance of is generally the MARR.
the laboratory for an indefinitely long period of time. Cash
Decisions made using FW and PW will be the same.
requirements of the laboratory are estimated to be $100,000
now, $30,000 per year indefinitely, and $20,000 at the end of A positive FW for an investment project means that the project
every 4th year for equipment replacement. is acceptable (it satisfies the MARR).

What amount of endowment principal is required to establish


the laboratory and then earn enough interest to support the
remaining cash requirements of this laboratory for a long time?

Future Worth Method Future Worth Method


Evaluation of New Equipment Purchase Using FW
Future worth example A piece of new equipment has been proposed by engineers to
increase the productivity of a certain manual welding operation.
The investment cost is $25,000, and the equipment will have a
A $45,000 investment in a new conveyor system is projected to market value of $5,000 at the end of a study period of five years.
improve throughput and increasing revenue by $14,000 per Increased productivity attributable to the equipment will amount
year for five years. The conveyor will have an estimated market to $8,000 pear year after extra operating costs have been
value of $4,000 at the end of five years. Using FW and a MARR subtracted from the revenue generated by the additional
of 12%, is this a good investment? production. A cash-flow diagram for this investment opportunity
is given below. If the firm’s MARR is 20% per year, is this proposal
a sound one? Use the FW method.
$5,000

$8,000 $8,000 $8,000 $8,000 $8,000

1 2 3 4 5

$25,000

Annual Worth (AW) Annual Worth (AW)


Annual Worth (AW) is another way to assess projects. Capital Recovery
Annual worth is an equal periodic series of dollar amounts that Capital Recovery reflects the capital cost of the asset.
is equivalent to the cash inflows and outflows, at an interest
rate that is generally the MARR. CR is the annual equivalent cost of the capital invested.
The CR covers the following items.
The AW of a project is annual equivalent revenue (R) or
Loss in value of the asset.
savings minus annual equivalent expenses (E), less its annual
capital recovery (CR) amount. Interest on invested capital (at the MARR).
The CR distributes the initial cost (I) and the salvage value (S)
AW (i%) = R – E – CR (i%)
across the life of the asset.

CR (i%) = I (A/P, i%, N) – S (A/F, i%, N)


Equivalent Uniform annual Cost (EUAC) = CR + E

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Annual Worth (AW) Annual Worth (AW)
Annual worth example Annual worth example

A project requires an initial investment of $45,000, has a A corporate jet costs $1,350,000 and will incur $200,000 per
salvage value of $12,000 after six years, incurs annual expenses year in fixed cost (maintenance, …) and $277 per hour variable
of $6,000, and provides an annual revenue of $18,000. Using cost (fuel, …). The jet will be operated 1200 hours per year for 5
a MARR of 10%, determine the AW of this project. years and then sold for $650,000. The jet revenues $1,000 per
hour. The MARR is 15% per year.

(a) Determine the Capital Recovery (CR) value of the jet.


(b) Determine the Annual Worth (AW) of the jet.
(c) Determine the Equivalent Uniform Annual Cost (EUAC) of
the jet.

Internal Rate of Return Internal Rate of Return


The internal rate of return (IRR) method is the most widely used How the IRR works
rate of return method for performing engineering economic
The IRR is the interest rate that equates the equivalent worth of
analysis.
an alternative’s cash inflows (revenue, R) to the equivalent
worth of cash outflows (expenses, E).
It is also called the investor’s method, the discounted cash flow
method, and the profitability index.
The IRR is sometimes referred to as the breakeven interest rate.
If the IRR for a project is greater than the MARR, then the
The IRR is the interest i'% at which
project is acceptable.

Internal Rate of Return Internal Rate of Return


Challenges in applying the IRR method.
Solving for the IRR is a bit more complicated than PW,
It is computationally difficult without proper tools.
FW, or AW
In rare instances multiple rates of return can be found.
The method of solving for the i'% that equates revenues and
expenses normally involves trial-and-error calculations, or solving The IRR method must be carefully applied and interpreted when
numerically using mathematical software. comparing two more mutually exclusive alternatives (e.g., do not
directly compare internal rates of return).
The use of spreadsheet software can greatly assist in solving for
the IRR. Excel uses the IRR(range, guess) or RATE (nper, pmt, pv)
functions.

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Internal Rate of Return Internal Rate of Return
Internal Rate of Return example Internal Rate of Return example

ABC, Inc. is considering the purchase of an equipment. The A piece of new equipment has been proposed by engineers to
capital investment requirement is $345,000 and the estimated increase the productivity of a certain manual welding
market value of the system after a 6 year study period is operation. The investment cost is $25,000 and the equipment
$115,000. Annual revenues attributable to the new system will will have a market value of $5,000 at the end of its expected
be $120,00, whereas additional annual expenses will be life of 5 years. Increased productivity attributable to the
$22,000. You have been asked by management to determine equipment will amount to $8,000 per year after extra
the IRR of this project and to make a recommendation. The operating costs have been subtracted from the value of the
corporation’s MARR is 20% per year. Solve first by using linear additional production. Is the investment a good one? The
interpolation and then by using a spreadsheet. MARR is 20% per year.

External Rate of Return External Rate of Return


Reinvesting Revenue—the External Rate of Return (ERR) The ERR procedure
The IRR assumes revenues generated are reinvested at the IRR—
which may not be an accurate situation. Discount all the net cash outflows to time 0 at ε% per
compounding period.
The ERR takes into account the interest rate, ε, external to a
project at which net cash flows generated (or required) by a Compound all the net cash inflows to period N at at ε%.
project over its life can be reinvested (or borrowed). This is
usually the MARR. Solve for the ERR, the interest rate that establishes equivalence
between the two quantities.
If the ERR happens to equal the project’s IRR, then using the
ERR and IRR produce identical results.

External Rate of Return Payback Period Method


ERR is the i% at which The payback period method is simple, but possibly misleading.

The simple payback period is the number of years required for


cash inflows to just equal cash outflows.

It is a measure of liquidity rather than a measure of profitability.


where

Rk = excess of receipts over expenses in period k,


Ek = excess of expenses over receipts in period k,
N = project life or number of periods, and 𝐹𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡 𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡 − 𝑆𝑎𝑙𝑣𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒
𝑃𝐵𝑃 =
ε = external reinvestment rate per period. 𝑅𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑢𝑒 − 𝐷𝑖𝑠𝑏𝑢𝑟𝑠𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡

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Payback Period Method Payback Period Method

How to Calculate Payback Problems with the Payback Period Method.

The payback period is the smallest value of θ (θ ≤ N) for which It doesn’t reflect any cash flows occurring after θ, or θ'.
the relationship below is satisfied.
It doesn’t indicate anything about project desirability except
the speed with which the initial investment is recovered.

Recommendation: use the payback period only as


For discounted payback future cash flows are discounted back supplemental information in conjunction with one or more of
to the present, so the relationship to satisfy becomes the other methods in this chapter.

Payback Period Method Explicit Reinvestment Rate of Return


Finding the Simple End of Net Cash Cumulative Cumulative
Year Flow PW at 0% PW at 6% 𝑁𝑒𝑡 𝐴𝑛𝑛𝑢𝑎𝑙 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑓𝑖𝑡
and Discounted 𝐸𝑅𝑅𝑅 =
𝐼𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡
Payback Period for a 0 -$42,000 -$42,000 -$42,000
Set of Cash Flows.
1 $12,000 -$30,000 -$30,679
The cumulative cash
flows in the table
were calculated using
Explicit Reinvestment Rate of Return
2 $11,000 -$19,000 -$20,889
the formulas for
simple and 3 $10,000 -$9,000 -$12,493
discounted payback. 𝑃𝑊 𝐵𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑓𝑖𝑡𝑠
𝐵𝐶𝑅 =
𝑃𝑊 𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡𝑠
From the calculations 4 $10,000 $1,000 -$4,572
θ = 4 years and θ' = 5
years. 5 $9,000 $2,153

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