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From Q1 2019 Investor Report

Crypto Market Bottoms

PROPERTY OF BLOCKHEAD CAPITAL LLC


A History of Bitcoin’s Volatile Market Cycle
Bitcoin’s history has shown a pattern of repeated boom and bust cycles. This is likely a factor of Bitcoin’s
(and cryptocurrencies in general) immense potential and the momentarily inflated expectations,
resulting in near term over-exuberance and long term return to the mean.

In 2011, Bitcoin’s price In November 2013 Bitcoin’s


rose to $32 before falling price rose to $1,175 before
93% to reach its bottom. falling 86% to reach its bottom.

It bottomed in November It bottomed in January 2015.


2011.

In 2017, Bitcoin appreciated to $19,764 before falling 84%.

It reached a low of $3,148 in December 2018.

Now in 2019, the market is flashing signs of a potential


bottom, and may be presenting the strongest buy
opportunity since early 2015.
Bitcoin Must be Evaluated Logarithmically
In 2014, multiple analysts began to proliferate the theory that Bitcoin would follow a logarithmic
growth curve due to its high growth potential and strong network effects. Five years of additional
market data has confirmed the trend.

Bitcoin Weekly Line Chart, Logarithmic View, 2011 - Present

Bitcoin’s price, like other datasets which span large ranges, is best viewed through a logarithmic
chart. A logarithmic chart scales based on orders of magnitude (where the y-axis represents
percentage change as opposed to fixed value change). This perspective better represents the
growth of the asset as we are interested in tracking percentage change as opposed to fixed
dollar change.

When viewed from this perspective (and displayed in the chart above), the volatility in Bitcoin’s
price becomes easier to anticipate and begins to form a more predictable long-term trend, with
identifiable over-exuberant “bubble” periods.

As of December 2018, Bitcoin has returned to its baseline growth channel.


Hyperbolic Growth Curves Are Not Exclusive
to Bitcoin & Appear in Traditional Assets Too

Hyperbolic growth curves on logarithmic charts also appear over large time frames in
traditional equities. While there are many examples available, we've highlighted a
traditional consumer product company (Johnson & Johnson) and a consumer
technology company (Apple, Inc.), both displaying exponential growth curves in linear
view (inset) and hyperbolic growth rates in logarithmic view.

Johnson & Johnson Monthly Line Chart, Logarithmic View, 1973 - Present

Johnson & Johnson, Linear View

Apple, Inc. Monthly Line Chart, Logarithmic View, 1994 - Present

Apple, Inc., Linear View


Market Cycles Follow Fundamentals
While the market has historically followed an emotional boom and bust cycle, there are several
identifiable fundamental factors which drive the larger cyclical trends. Here are some of the
factors we’re paying attention to:

“The Halving” refers to Bitcoin’s supply schedule,


where roughly every 4 years Bitcoin’s inflation rate
(the rewards paid to Bitcoin miners) is reduced by
50% (until 21 million Bitcoin have been mined, when
no new supply will be issued). The reduction in
supply schedule historically begins to be anticipated
by the market approximately 12-15 months prior to
the next ‘halving’ and has historically signified the
very beginning of the next bull cycle. The next
halving is expected to occur late May 2020 (14
months from now).

Bitcoin price follows a formulaic stock-to-flow model


Bitcoin’s price has been found to follow a stock-to-
flow model, which predicts price based on
outstanding supply versus the new supply
introduced annually. We see that price generally
follows the resulting stepwise-function model. This
follows logically, because if we assume steady (or
increasing) demand for the asset with decreasing
new available supply, the result will be upward price
pressure. It’s important to note that speculation in
the price of the asset causes extremes on both ends
- over-exuberance in bull markets and over-
gloominess in bear markets - where we are in a
period of excessive gloominess.

When the price of Bitcoin falls, mining becomes less


profitable, or entirely unprofitable, for certain miners.
In response, these inefficient miners cease
operations, which manifests as a rapid decrease in
mining computing power (or “hash power")
supporting the network. Bitcoin’s software
automatically decreases mining difficulty in response
to the decrease in hash power (signifying the “miner
capitulation”).

We have seen miner capitulations three times in


Bitcoin’s history. The first two coincided with market
cycle bottoms and the most recent occurred
between October and December 2018, setting the
stage for the next cycle to begin.

Charts: @100trillionUSD
Money Flow is an Early Indicator of Price

On Balance Volume (OBV) has been a dependable bottom signal.

OBV is a technical indicator that operates on the notion that volume precedes price movement,
making it a leading indicator which we use to help us predict price. Rising OBV reflects increasing
buy volume pressure that may lead to higher prices, while falling OBV reflects increasing sell
volume pressure that may foreshadow lower prices.

2011 2015

2018

When analyzing OBV in relation to a long term down trend, we witnessed OBV continually set
lower lows ( ) through the bear market and capitulation. It is only after OBV begins setting
higher lows ( ) and breaks the long term OBV trend line ( ) while also (almost simultaneously)
breaking the long term downward price trend ( ) that we see the mark of the end of the bear
market.

Looking at 2018 and 2019, OBV appears to be setting higher lows and has broken both relevant
trend lines — likely signaling the end of the bear market.
This presentation is not an offering or the solicitation of an offer to purchase an
interest in Blockhead Technologic Fund I, LP (the “Fund”). Any such offer or solicitation
will only be made to qualified investors by means of a confidential private placement
memorandum and related subscription materials which contain significant additional
information regarding the terms of the offering (the “Offering Documents”), and only in
those jurisdictions where permitted by law. Any decision to invest must be based solely upon
the information set forth in the Offering Documents, regardless of any information investors
may have been otherwise furnished, including this presentation.

An investment in any strategy, including the strategy described herein, involves a high degree of
risk.  There is no guarantee that the investment objective will be achieved.  All investment involves
risk, including the loss of principal. Opportunities for withdrawal, redemption, and transferability of
interests are restricted, so investors may not have access to capital when it is needed. There is no
secondary market for the interests in the Fund and none is expected to develop.

The information in this presentation has been obtained from public sources that Blockhead Capital, LLC
(the "General Partner”) believes to be reliable. The General Partner makes no representation as to the
accuracy or completeness of such information. Opinions, estimates and projections in this presentation
constitute the current judgment of the General Partner and are subject to change without notice. Any
projections, forecasts and estimates contained in this presentation are necessarily speculative in nature and are
based upon certain assumptions. No representations or warranties are made as to the accuracy of such forward-
looking statements. Accordingly, any projections are only estimates and actual results will differ and may vary
substantially from the projections or estimates shown. References to the market performance of all or specific
digital assets over a specified period of time are provided for information only. A reference to such performances
does not imply that the portfolio will perform similarly in the future.

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